WHEAT January 13, 1995 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- WHEAT OUTLOOK is published monthly (except February) by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, D.C. 20005-4788. WHS-0195. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- HIGHLIGHTS -- Winter wheat seedings up 1 percent, less than expected. -- December 1 wheat stocks at 1,495 million bushels, less than expected. -- Feed & residual use forecast increased 25 million bushels to 250 million. -- U.S. export prospects up. -- U.S. wheat stocks forecast, 466 million bushels, lowest since 1975. -- U.S. average farm price forecast up 5 cents per bushel. U.S. WINTER WHEAT PLANTINGS UP ONLY 1 PERCENT Winter wheat seedings were estimated at 49.6 million acres, up slightly from a year earlier, but less than any of the previous 4 years. The increase was mostly in soft red winter (SRW) area, up 7 percent to an estimated 10.6 million acres. Hard red winter (HRW) area was down slightly, falling to 34.8 million acres. White winter wheat plantings declined modestly to 4.2 million bushels, as dryness reduced seedings. The increase in winter wheat area was less than expected. The average trade estimate of 16 industry forecasters, was 51.8 million acres, ranging from 50.3 million to 53.7 million. The increase in winter wheat seedings was expected to be higher because wheat prices were increasing during and immediately before fall planting, the wheat acreage reduction program (ARP) remained at zero percent for the third year in a row, and weather for planting was, on average, better than last year. Throughout the fall, wheat prices were significantly higher than during the previous two falls. Before and during winter wheat planting, it became clear that foreign production was down and foreign exporter supplies were tight. Winter wheat prices, in particular, were up from the previous 2 years. In July 1994, the average farm price for winter wheat hit a low for the year at $2.99 per bushel, 8 percent higher than a year earlier, but lower than July 1992. By October, 1994 winter wheat prices averaged 26 percent, or 78 cents a bushel higher than a year earlier. The increased farm prices were also reflected in higher wholesale market quotes. White wheat prices were particularly high because ongoing drought in Australia was dropping its production prospects. Despite these strong price incentives, wheat area responded only slightly. Planting conditions often affect the amount of winter wheat planted. In the fall of 1994, planting conditions were much better than a year earlier in much of the Midwest. Also, the harvest of the large corn and bean crops progressed rapidly, allowing farmers to plant wheat. In the fall of 1993, wheat area in Illinois and Missouri was curtailed by excess moisture and flooding, severely reducing planted area. A rebound was expected, and occurred, but Illinois' 1995 area remained modestly below 1993, and Missouri plantings were up only 100,000 acres after declining 450,000 acres in 1994. Moreover, this year, problems appeared elsewhere. Drought in the Pacific Northwest (PNW) hindered seeding of nonirrigated wheat. For the second consecutive year, Montana planting was delayed because of dryness and late harvest of spring seeded crops. Winter wheat area in Montana fell to 1.7 million acres, down more than a third from 2 years ago. Area planted in the Central and Southern Plains was little changed. Kansas and Texas increased area, despite some dryness, but Oklahoma, Colorado, and Nebraska had nearly offsetting declines. Conservation compliance and changed rotations may be limiting winter wheat area. DECEMBER 1 WHEAT STOCKS LOWER THAN EXPECTED, FEED AND RESIDUAL USE INCREASED U.S. wheat stocks in December were 1,495 million bushels, down 6 percent from a year ago. This was less than the 1,527 million average expected by trade analysts. The December stocks and preliminary estimates of September-November trade and food use indicate about -42 million bushels feed and residual use for the second quarter of the 1994/95 marketing year. In recent years the September-November quarter residual has been negative even when wheat prices were low compared with corn prices. Since 1986/87, when the timing of the stocks report changed from October 1 to September 1, the second quarter of the market year residual use has ranged from -21 million bushels to -88 million. December 1 stocks are usually larger than a simple calculation of September-November quarterly supply and demand. September 1 wheat stocks plus the quarter's imports equal supply, and subtracting quarterly food use, seed use, and exports should leave December 1 stocks, plus residual. First-quarter feed and residual use was 377 million bushels, and second quarter residual was -42 million, leaving feed and residual use for the first half of 1994/95 at 335 million. The revised annual forecast for feed and residual is 250 million bushels, implying that the feed and residual use for the second half of 1994/95 will be -85 million. Since the stocks reporting was revised in 1986, the second half feed and residual has averaged -8 million bushels and ranged from -88 million in 1991/92 when ending stocks were very low, to 121 million in 1990/91 when low wheat prices compared with feed grains encouraged wheat feeding. In 1994/95, second half feed and residual is expected to be more like 1991/92 because ending stocks are forecast to be even lower. Durum stocks on December 1 were 65 million bushels, down from 77 million a year ago, confirming tight supplies of durum in 1994/95. Because a significant portion of the durum crop is harvested after September 1, the December 1 stocks are particularly important for gauging durum supplies remaining for the rest of the year. The reported durum trade (from several sources) and mill grind by the Bureau of the Census, combined with the stocks and production reported by USDA, permits the construction of a quarterly durum supply and demand (table 11). Durum ending stocks are forecast to be very tight, about the same as a year earlier. ERS also estimates by-class implications of the stocks reports using information available on government stocks, normal stock patterns, relative prices, and other available information. The December 1 stocks indicate that there was less white wheat and SRW in stocks than expected, dampening export prospects for these classes, while more ample HRW supplies boost its export potential. CHINA PURCHASES BOOST U.S. EXPORT PROSPECTS The U.S. export forecast was increased 25 million bushels from December's estimate to 1.275 billion bushels (34.7 million tons). U.S. exports received a strong boost when China returned to the U.S. market in December and January, purchasing 2.7 million tons of wheat, mostly HRW, for delivery through the end of the marketing year. By January 11, China had effectively used up all of its 3 million tons EEP allocation. Prior to the December purchase, the United States had shipped 1.2 million tons of wheat to China this marketing year, based on EEP purchases made mostly in 1993/94. The pace of sales in November and December to countries other than China was relatively slow, but speeded up at the end of December and early January when Tunisia, Egypt, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka purchased EEP wheat. Uncertainty remains about how much more wheat China will buy from the United States and other exporters, but historically China tends to import more wheat in the second half of the year than in the first. The import forecast for China was raised from the December forecast of 9 million tons to 11 million, mostly reflecting recent purchases from the United States and other exporters. The increase in China's import forecast raised the total world import projection 1 million tons from December's estimate to 96.9 million. The small increase in Australia's export forecast to 6.8 million tons (due to an increased production estimate) will help offset some of the increase in imports. However, smaller U.S. stocks and continued tight competitor supplies are likely to push export prices higher. OTHER REVISIONS MINOR Additional changes in the U.S. wheat supply and demand include a slight revision in 1994 production, an increase in North Dakota was mostly offset by declines in California and Kentucky. The winter wheat seeding caused a minor adjustment in seed use. Area, yield, production and stocks estimates were revised by NASS back to 1987. Longer historical data series will be available in the Wheat Yearbook issued in February. **************************************************************************** * Information Contacts: * * Edward W. Allen (senior wheat analyst) (202) 219-0831 * * Bryan Just (domestic) (202) 501-8524 * * Sara Schwartz (international, domestic cross commodity) (202) 501-8514 * * Carolyn Whitton (international) (202) 219-0825 * **************************************************************************** Fundamentals of Wheat Supply and Demand In 1994/95 U.S. SUPPLY FORECAST DOWN 2 PERCENT FROM A YEAR EARLIER Reduced production and imports more than offset increased beginning stocks. Total U.S. wheat supplies are forecast below 3 billion bushels for the third time in 15 years. Although up from a year earlier, beginning stocks of 568 million bushels were the fourth lowest in 15 years. Imports are projected down because the large U.S. corn crop is reducing incentives to ship feed wheat south and a memorandum of understanding with Canada sets tariff rate quotas on wheat imports. U.S. production in 1994 was 2.32 billion bushels, down 3 percent from a year earlier but the fifth largest in the last 10 years. Despite a zero percent ARP for the second year in a row, planted area continued to decline. Wheat prices before and during the early planting of winter wheat (August-September 1993) were much lower than prices affecting the planting of spring wheat (March-April 1994). Moreover, excess moisture and flooding prevented some winter wheat from being planted. Average yields declined 2 percent as below trend HRW yields more than offset record SRW yields. USE FORECAST UP 2 PERCENT U.S. wheat exports are projected at 1.275 billion bushels (34.7 million tons), up 4 percent from 1993/94. U.S. share of global trade is expected to expand to 36 percent from 33 percent in 1993/94 because of reduced competitor exports. Drought in Australia has greatly lowered that country's supplies, so U.S. wheat exports to Egypt and several Asian and Middle Eastern countries are increasing. Global 1994/95 ending stocks will be the lowest since 1981/82 and exporter supplies are very tight, so export prices have risen sharply from a year ago. As competition has receded, EEP bonuses have fallen, and now average less than $20 per ton. Higher prices are contributing to reduced global imports, forecast at 96.9 million tons, down 3 percent from 1993/94. Global trade is being reduced by larger production in some importing countries (especially Morocco and Eastern Europe), less imports of wheat for feeding, and reduced imports by the FSU, resulting, in part, from lower feed consumption. However, China is forecast to expand its imports by more than 150 percent from a year ago to 11 million tons. Domestic use is forecast nearly the same in 1994/95 as a year earlier. Feed and residual use is expected to decline more than food and seed use increase. Food use is forecast up 2 percent in 1994/95, less than growth during the last 2 years but faster than population growth, partly because of healthier diets. Feed and residual use is forecast down, although it is up in the first half of 1994/95. Because ending stocks are forecast to be the lowest in the last 20 years, a negative residual is expected in the second half of 1994/95. U.S. PRICES RESPOND TO TIGHTER WORLD FUNDAMENTALS The changes in the U.S. supply and demand support increased U.S. prices. Reduced foreign production and tight competing exporters' supplies supported U.S. and world prices. The average farm price is heavily weighted by marketings early in the market year. Table 1 -- Wheat: U.S. market year supply and disappearance Item |1989/90 1990/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94E 1994/95P -------------------|------------------------------------------------------ Area (mil. ac.) | ARP (%) | 10.0 5.0 15.0 5.0 0.0 0.0 Nat'l total base | 91.1 90.8 89.6 89.6 89.6 88.9 CRP base retired | 8.8 10.3 10.4 10.6 10.8 10.8 Effective base | 82.3 80.5 79.2 78.9 78.4 78.1 0,50/92/85 | 3.5 5.3 5.8 4.0 5.7 5.2 Planted | 76.6 77.0 69.9 72.2 72.2 70.4 Harvested | 62.2 69.1 57.8 62.8 62.7 61.8 Yield (bu/ac) | 32.7 39.5 34.3 39.3 38.2 37.6 | Supply (mil. bu.) | Beg. Stocks | 701.6 536.5 868.1 475.0 530.7 568.5 Production | 2,036.6 2,729.8 1,980.1 2,466.8 2,396.4 2,320.6 Imports 1/ | 22.5 36.4 40.7 70.0 108.8 85.0 TOTAL | 2,760.7 3,302.6 2,889.0 3,011.8 3,035.9 2,974.1 | Use | Food | 748.9 789.8 789.5 834.3 869.3 885.0 Seed | 104.3 92.9 97.7 99.1 96.3 98.0 Feed & Residual 2/| 139.1 482.4 244.5 194.2 274.1 250.0 Exports 1/ | 1,232.0 1,069.5 1,282.3 1,353.6 1,227.8 1,275.0 TOTAL | 2,224.3 2,434.5 2,413.9 2,481.2 2,467.4 2,508.0 | Ending stocks | 536.5 868.1 475.0 530.7 568.5 466.1 Farmer-owned | reserve | 144.0 14.0 50.0 28.0 6.0 0.0 CCC inventory 3/ | 117.0 163.0 152.0 150.0 150.0 142.0 Free stocks | 275.5 691.1 273.0 352.7 412.5 324.1 | Stocks-to-use | 24.1 35.7 19.7 21.4 23.0 18.6 | Prices ($/bu.) | Season average | 3.72 2.61 3.00 3.24 3.26 3.40-3.60 Target price | 4.10 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 Loan rate | 2.06 1.95 2.04 2.21 2.45 2.58 deficiency | payment rate | 0.32 1.28 1.35 0.81 1.03 0.61 4/ | Deficiency pmts. | (mil. dollars) | 571 2,420 2,246 1,371 1,932 | Market value | of production | (mil. dollars) | 7,542 7,184 5,957 7,984 7,833 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Totals may not add due to rounding. E--Estimated, P--Projected. 1/ Imports and exports include flour and other products expressed in wheat equivalent. 2/ Approximates feed use and includes negligible quantities used for alcoholic beverages. 3/ From 1981/82 on, includes 147 million bushels in Food Security Reserve. 4/ Based on 5-month price +10 cents. Table 2 -- Wheat supply and disappearance by class 1/ 1993/94E |HRW HRS SRW White Durum All Wheat ------------------|-------------------------------------------------- | Area: (mil. ac.) | Planted | 36.3 17.5 10.7 5.4 2.2 72.2 Harvested | 30.1 16.0 9.3 5.2 2.1 62.7 Yield (bu/ac) | 35.5 32.0 43.1 66.4 33.6 38.2 | | Supply: (mil. bu.)| Production | 1,066 512 401 347 70 2,396 Beg. stocks | 204 171 43 64 49 531 Imports 2/ | 4 66 0 9 31 109 TOTAL | 1,273 749 444 420 150 3,036 | Use: | Food | 381 195 147 65 81 869 Seed | 39 27 19 7 5 96 Residual | 140 60 60 32 (17) 274 Total domestic | 560 282 226 104 68 1,240 Exports 2/ | 486 266 173 249 54 1,228 TOTAL | 1,046 548 399 353 122 2,467 | Ending stocks | 227 201 45 67 28 568 1994/95P |HRW HRS SRW White Durum All Wheat ------------------|-------------------------------------------------- | Area: (mil. ac.) | Planted | 35.0 17.5 9.8 5.2 2.9 70.4 Harvested | 28.5 16.9 8.4 5.1 2.7 61.8 Yield (bu/ac) | 34.0 30.4 51.3 59.2 35.7 37.6 | | Supply: (mil. bu.)| Production | 971 515 433 303 97 2,321 Beg. stocks | 227 201 45 67 28 568 Imports 2/ | 2 48 0 10 25 85 TOTAL | 1,200 764 479 381 150 2,974 | Use: | Total domestic | 539 272 236 99 88 1,233 Exports 2/ | 475 310 215 240 35 1,275 TOTAL | 1,014 582 451 339 123 2,508 | Ending stocks | 187 182 28 42 27 466 --------------------------------------------------------------------- Totals may not add due to rounding. E--Estimated, P--Projected. 1/ ERS estimates of area, yield, and domestic use, except Durum area and yield which is reported by NASS. 2/ Includes flour and selected products on a wheat grain equivalent. Table 3 -- Wheat: Quarterly supply and disappearance (1,000 bu.) ----------|---------------------------------------------------------------- Market |Produc- Year | tion Imports Supply Food Seed Feed Exports E.stocks | 1/ 2/ 1/ ----------|---------------------------------------------------------------- | 1992/93: | Jun-Aug | 2,467 20 2,962 212 1 345 283 2,121 Sep-Nov | 0 17 2,137 219 63 (82) 345 1,592 Dec-Feb | 0 17 1,609 197 3 5 356 1,048 Mar-May | 0 16 1,064 207 32 (74) 370 531 Mkt. year| 2,467 70 3,012 834 99 194 1,354 531 | 1993/94E | Jun-Aug | 2,396 15 2,942 211 1 296 301 2,133 Sep-Nov | 0 30 2,163 225 61 (38) 329 1,586 Dec-Feb | 0 27 1,613 210 2 40 332 1,028 Mar-May | 0 37 1,065 223 32 (23) 266 568 Mkt. year| 2,396 109 3,036 869 96 274 1,228 568 | 1994/95P | Jun-Aug | 2,321 31 2,920 212 2 377 260 2,069 Sep-Nov 3/| 0 21 2,090 230 62 (42) 345 1,495 Dec to | Mar | 0 33 443 34 (85) 670 Mkt. year| 2,321 85 2,974 885 98 250 1,275 466 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Totals may not add due to rounding. E--Estimated, P--Projected. 1/ Imports and exports include flour and other products expressed in wheat equivalent. 2/ Approximates feed use and includes negligible quantities used for distilled spirits. 3/ Imports and exports estimated for November. Table 4 -- Wheat: Food disappearance (1,000 bu.) Jun-Nov Jun-Nov 1994 | Aug Sep Oct Nov 1994/95 1993/94 --------------|------------------------------------------------------------ Mill grind +| 78,235 75,902 77,479 75,473 445,793 439,239 Food exports -| 5,636 3,407 3,105 -- 21,894 21,172 Food imports +| 1,723 1,366 1,671 -- 8,139 7,718 Non-flour | food use +| 1,900 1,900 1,900 1,900 11,400 10,800 Food use | 76,222 75,761 77,945 -- 443,438 436,585 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Census. Wheat flour and products converted to wheat grain equivalent. Non-flour food use is ERS estimate. Table 5 -- Wheat: Farm prices and prices at selected markets ($/bu.) --------------------- Farm Prices ---------------------- All wheat Winter wheat Durum Other spring Month | 93/94 94/95 93/94 94/95 93/94 94/95 93/94 94/95 ------|----------------------------------------------------------------- Jun | 2.84 3.21 | 2.72 3.09 | 3.18 4.57 | 3.21 3.53 Jul | 2.85 3.04 | 2.76 2.99 | 3.26 4.50 | 3.50 3.26 Aug | 2.96 3.24 | 2.83 3.23 | 3.43 4.40 | 3.51 3.20 Sep | 3.10 3.56 | 2.88 3.56 | 3.92 4.60 | 3.37 3.39 Oct | 3.25 3.77 | 3.00 3.78 | 4.23 4.92 | 3.50 3.51 Nov | 3.47 3.76 | 3.21 3.75 | 4.91 4.86 | 3.67 3.51 Dec 1/| 3.63 3.75 | 3.43 3.75 | 4.92 4.81 | 3.75 3.55 Jan | 3.58 | 3.38 | 4.97 | 3.69 Feb | 3.61 | 3.34 | 5.36 | 3.68 Mar | 3.69 | 3.26 | 5.71 | 3.64 Apr | 3.56 | 3.25 | 5.70 | 3.68 May | 3.41 | 3.18 | 4.93 | 3.63 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ KC HRW #1 KC HRW #1 St. Louis Portland ordinary 13% prot. #2 SRW #1 soft white Month | 93/94 94/95 93/94 94/95 93/94 94/95 93/94 94/95 ------|----------------------------------------------------------------- Jun | 3.33 3.60 | 3.60 3.85 | 2.83 3.22 | 3.46 3.64 Jul | 3.38 3.48 | 3.89 3.63 | 2.94 3.11 | 3.57 3.52 Aug | 3.34 3.70 | 3.88 3.78 | 2.98 3.31 | 3.44 3.71 Sep | 3.37 4.05 | 4.23 4.12 | 2.75 3.69 | 3.42 4.32 Oct | 3.52 4.31 | 4.58 4.37 | 2.93 3.89 | 3.42 4.61 Nov | 3.39 4.24 | 4.98 4.31 | 3.33 3.84 | 3.47 4.54 Dec | 4.15 | 5.11 | 3.62 | 3.61 Jan | 4.00 | 4.69 | 3.83 | 3.63 Feb | 3.80 | 4.54 | 3.61 | 3.52 Mar | 3.64 | 4.39 | 3.36 | 3.46 Apr | 3.63 | 4.42 | 3.29 | 3.58 May | 3.65 | 4.46 | 3.24 | 3.74 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Minn. Minn. FOB Gulf Average EEP DNS 14% durum $/ton (HRW) bonus $/ton 2/ Month | 93/94 94/95 93/94 94/95 93/94 94/95 93/94 94/95 ------|----------------------------------------------------------------- Jun | 3.96 4.20 | 3.84 5.76 | 122 138 | 20.11 43.28 Jul | 4.80 4.14 | 4.05 5.19 | 129 148 | 42.44 42.18 Aug | 4.88 4.00 | 4.41 5.30 | 131 159 | 41.98 36.39 Sep | 4.90 4.27 | 5.06 6.16 | 131 167 | 50.36 37.61 Oct | 5.17 4.40 | 5.73 6.64 | 137 162 | 52.65 26.82 Nov | 5.50 4.41 | 6.38 6.61 | 147 162 | 53.61 22.44 Dec | 5.45 | 6.57 | 159 165 | 52.19 18.65 Jan | 5.32 | 6.56 | 155 | 59.65 Feb | 5.29 | 6.78 | 147 | 40.72 Mar | 4.94 | 7.06 | 141 | 52.30 Apr | 4.99 | 6.45 | 140 | 46.49 May | 5.05 | 6.17 | 139 | 47.40 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Source: NASS & AMS, USDA. 1/ Mid-month. 2/ Weighted avg., all classes. Table 6 -- Wheat: Exports and Imports U.S. wheat exports, 1994/95: (1,000 bu.) Jun-Oct Jun-Oct | Jul Aug Sep Oct 1994/95 1993/94 --------------|------------------------------------------------------------ Wheat grain | 66,314 103,941 117,555 101,450 462,623 495,568 Wheat flour | 6,824 5,636 3,407 3,105 21,894 17,493 Products | 223 195 130 145 921 645 Total | 73,361 109,772 121,091 104,699 485,438 513,706 U.S. wheat imports, 1994/95: (1,000 bu.) Jun-Oct Jun-Oct | Jul Aug Sep Oct 1994/95 1993/94 --------------|------------------------------------------------------------ Wheat grain | 8,932 5,672 5,253 5,801 36,666 27,464 Wheat flour | 455 539 599 650 2,935 2,201 Products | 1,102 1,185 769 1,022 5,215 4,238 Total | 10,489 7,395 6,621 7,473 44,816 33,903 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Census. Wheat flour and products converted to wheat grain equivalent. Table 7 -- Wheat: U.S. exports (1,000 metric tons) 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | 1993/94 | 1994/95 -----------|---------------------------------|--------------------------------- | as of | | as of | | 1/5/95 | | 1/5/95 | | Out- Total |1993/94 | Out- Total | |Ship- standingcommit- | Census |Ship- standingcommit- |USDA Country |ments sales ments 2/| total |ments sales ments 2/|forecast -----------|---------------------------------|------------------------|-------- | | | Algeria | 631 380 1,011 | 1,301 | 498 18 516 | China | 1,093 815 1,908 | 1,887 | 1,211 2,112 3,323 | Egypt | 1,380 1,165 2,545 | 2,975 | 3,682 741 4,423 | FSU | 1,057 416 1,473 | 2,659 | 661 68 729 | Japan | 1,912 753 2,665 | 3,266 | 2,181 590 2,771 | S. Korea | 945 274 1,219 | 1,544 | 888 375 1,263 | Morocco | 975 151 1,126 | 1,348 | 84 0 84 | Nigeria | 836 161 997 | 1,076 | 350 127 477 | Pakistan | 852 270 1,122 | 1,834 | 805 225 1,030 | Philippines| 979 939 1,918 | 1,883 | 1,191 380 1,571 | | | | | Total grain| 17,799 7,230 25,029 | 32,038 | 17,648 7,176 24,824 | | | | | Total (incl| | | | products)3/| 18,142 7,961 26,103 | 33,414 | 18,118 7,274 25,392 | 34,700 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ June - May. 2/ U.S. Export Sales Report. 3/ Grain equivalent basis. Table 8 -- Winter wheat acreage (1,000 ac.) | Table 9 -- Wheat stocks ------------------------------------------ | ----------------------- 1994 1994 1995 Change | Stocks Million Seedings Planted Seedings from 1994 | report bushels State report area report | ------------------------------------------ | ----------------------- Major hard red winter states | 1990/91 KS 12,200 11,900 12,000 100 | Jun 1 536 OK 7,400 7,100 7,000 -100 | Sep 1 2,411 TX 5,800 6,000 6,200 200 | Dec 1 1,910 CO 2,900 2,900 2,800 -100 | Mar 1 1,398 NE 2,300 2,200 2,150 -50 | MT 2,200 1,950 1,700 -250 | 1991/92 SD 1,600 1,550 1,600 50 | Jun 1 868 CA 550 590 600 10 | Sep 1 2,055 NM 490 470 460 -10 | Dec 1 1,448 WY 200 200 200 0 | Mar 1 892 Major soft red winter states | OH 1,150 1,200 1,200 0 | 1992/93 MO 1,300 1,200 1,300 100 | Jun 1 475 IL 1,150 1,150 1,500 350 | Sep 1 2,121 AR 1,100 980 1,100 120 | Dec 1 1,592 IN 750 680 700 20 | Mar 1 1,048 NC 720 670 700 30 | KY 640 590 650 60 | 1993/94 TN 470 500 540 40 | Jun 1 531 GA 500 440 450 10 | Sep 1 2,133 SC 310 370 330 -40 | Dec 1 1,586 Major white winter states | Mar 1 1,028 WA 2,500 2,400 2,250 -150 | OR 900 900 900 0 | 1994/95 ID 900 840 830 -10 | Jun 1 568 MI 600 600 620 20 | Sep 1 2,069 | Dec 1 1,495 U.S. 50,612 49,247 49,648 401 | Mar 1 | ----------------------- HRW 1/ 35,814 35,017 34,817 -200 | SRW 1/ 10,254 9,827 10,559 732 | White 1/ 4,544 4,403 4,272 -131 | ------------------------------------------ | 1/ Based on 1994 percentages by class. Table 10 -- Durum: Quarterly supply and disappearance (1,000 bu.) 1/ Quarter | Prod. Imports Supply Food Seed Feed Exports E.stocks --------------|---------------------------------------------------------------- Jun-Aug 93/94E| 70 6 125 18 0 (10) 12 105 Sep-Nov | 0 8 113 20 0 6 10 77 Dec-Feb | 0 7 84 21 0 3 18 41 Mar-May | 0 9 51 21 4 (16) 13 28 Jun-Aug 94/95P| 94 5 126 20 0 7 7 92 Sep-Nov | 0 65 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ See footnotes to table 3. END-END-END