WHEAT OUTLOOK April 12, 1995 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- WHEAT OUTLOOK is published monthly (except January) by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20005-4788. WHS-0495. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Recent Developments HIGHLIGHTS -- Wheat area planted nearly unchanged, according to Prospective Plantings. -- Low March 1 stocks boost forecast for feed and residual use. -- Food use forecast reduced because of sluggish mill grind. -- Slow shipment pace reduces export forecast. WHEAT AREA PLANTED UP LESS THAN 1 PERCENT IN 1995 Prospective Plantings, released on March 31, indicated total U.S. wheat area is expected up 0.5 million acres from a year earlier, less than 1 percent. The report included the area producers said they expected to plant to spring wheat and a revision of area seeded to winter wheat, mostly done last fall. Wheat area was nearly unchanged from last year despite favorable prices and a third straight 0-percent acreage reduction program (ARP). Wheat farm prices have averaged $3 per bushel or higher for the last 4 years, and in 1994/95 are forecast at $3.40-3.50 per bushel. Moreover, planted area in the fall of 1993was reduced by extensive flooding and wet soils that prevented plantings in many parts of the Midwest. So more normal planting conditions last fall were expected to boost seedings. Although overall wheat area is almost unchanged, there were numerous changes across the states and classes of wheat. Durum planting intentions are up 15 percent to 3.29 million acres, the highest since 1991. The durum farm price premium in 1994/95 was forecast in Agricultural Prices in January to average $1.30 per bushel above the all-wheat national average, and in mid-March durum farm prices continued to hold a premium of over $1 per bushel. Hard red spring (HRS) planting intentions are nearly unchanged from last year's plantings, at 17.5 million acres. However, HRS area is expected to fall 600,000 acres in North Dakota as producers switch to durum. The decline in North Dakota is offset by increases in Montana and Washington, where HRS is expected to be planted on land that normally would have been planted to winter wheat, but dryness last fall delayed seeding until spring. The winter wheat planting problems in the Northwest are also boosting white spring area intentions 8 percent. However, estimated total white wheat area is down 2 percent to 5.1 million acres because of declining winter white area. Soft red winter (SRW) area was revised slightly from the estimate published in January, with increases in Ohio and North Carolina offset by declines in Georgia and South Carolina. SRW plantings are up 7 percent from a year earlier, as widespread flooding and wet soils did not interrupt seedings, but at 10.5 million acres, are down slightly from 2 years ago. Hard red winter (HRW) wheat area was revised down from the January Winter Wheat and Rye Seedings with almost the entire adjustment due to a 300,000-acre reduction in Kansas. Area in Kansas is now estimated down from a year earlier, with some producers in wetter areas switching to soybeans. U.S. HRW area planted is estimated down about 0.5 million acres to 34.5 million. Since the 1970s, HRW area planted was only lower once -- in 1988 when the ARP was 27.5 percent. Several major HRW states -- Colorado, Kansas, Montana, Nebraska, and Oklahoma -- had reductions, with Texas and South Dakota the only major states posting increases. Weather was a major factor in Montana, but in the Southern Plains planting conditions were generally more favorable than a year earlier. Wheat prices and price prospects are good compared to feed grains and oilseeds, making it more difficult to explain the area decline. LOW MARCH 1 WHEAT STOCKS BOOST FORECAST FOR FEED AND RESIDUAL USE FOR 1994/95 U.S. wheat stocks on March 1, 1995, were 968 million bushels, down 60 million from March 1, 1994. On-farm stocks decreased 8 percent to 335 million bushels and off-farm stocks decreased 5 percent to 633 million. Durum stocks were estimated at 42.5 million bushels, up slightly from 41.5 million a year earlier. The position of durum stocks shifted to more on-farm storage and less off farms. On-farm durum stocks, at 26.3 million bushels, were up 4.7 million from a year earlier and accounted for 62 percent of durum stocks. High durum prices during the winter in 1993/94 likely encouraged earlier sales and March 1, 1994, on-farm durum stocks of 22 million bushels accounted for only 52 percent of total durum stocks. The forecast for feed and residual use is 275 million bushels, up 25 million from last month, but mostly unchanged from 272 million in 1993/94. The increase was prompted by lower than expected March 1 stocks. Based on stocks reports to date, projected imports, exports, and domestic use, feed and residual use equals 372.5 million bushels for the first three quarters of 1994/95. Surprisingly, preliminary estimates of the third quarter added 26 million bushels to the feed and residual category. In most recent years, fourth-quarter feed and residual use has been negative. The current forecast assumes that during the fourth quarter (March-May), feed and residual use will be a record negative, nearly 100 million bushels, because wheat stocks will be low, similar to 1991/92, when the record large negative fourth-quarter residual occurred. However, if fourth-quarter feed and residual is not as large a negative as forecast, June 1 stocks will be smaller than projected. U.S. wheat ending stocks for 1994/95 are projected at 491 million bushels, up 10 million from the March forecast. Most of the increase was in HRW, even though the low March 1 stocks indicated that less HRW was in stocks than expected. Most of the reductions in forecast food use and exports are in HRW, offsetting higher feed and residual use, and resulting in larger expected HRW stocks. U.S. FOOD USE FORECAST DOWN SLIGHTLY IN 1994/95 Based on the slow pace of mill grind in recent months, U.S. wheat food use prospects have been reduced. The Census Bureau released small upward revisions for mill grind for calendar years 1993 and 1994. In February 1995 mill grind was reported below a year earlier, offsetting the historical revisions.xx Moreover, the pace of mill grind reported by Milling and Baking News did not increase dramatically in March, so March mill grind is unlikely to be as large as the record posted in March 1994. Food use in 1994/95 through February is about the same as a year earlier, so reduced food use in March is likely to result in a year-over-year decline. Imports of flour and pasta have increased, and are included in U.S. food use, but do not offset the reduced pace of mill grind. EXPORT FORECAST LOWERED FOR 1994/95 Projections for 1994/95 U.S. exports were reduced 25 million bushels in April to 1.25 billion bushels, now up only 2 percent from 1993/94. Even though there have been some large sales recently, they have been for 1995/96 shipment. The actual shipment pace for 1994/95 continues slow. China, for example, purchased 1 million tons of wheat in March, depleting its EEP allocation, but delivery is scheduled for the 1995/96 marketing year. Prior to March, China bought 3 million tons of wheat for delivery by the end of May, but as of March 30, 1.6 million tons remained to be shipped. The slow export pace is especially apparent in hard red winter and soft red winter wheat and the export forecasts for both were reduced in April. Forecasts for the other wheat classes remained unchanged from March. Hard red spring shipments remain well above a year ago because hard red spring wheat became especially attractive to importers when protein premiums dropped substantially. White wheat exports are expected to remain close to those of a year ago despite reduced supplies. Demand for white wheat has been strong because Australia's crop, which is mostly white wheat, was greatly reduced by drought. Relatively high durum prices and lower imports by Algeria and Morocco have contributed to reduced durum exports compared to a year ago.xx Even though the U.S. export forecast was reduced in April, the U.S. share of world trade remains unchanged at 36 percent because world trade was also ratcheted down. World trade is now forecast 96.5 million tons, about 1 million tons below the March estimate, and 14 percent below 1993/94. Based on known shipments, it is becoming apparent that China, Uzbekistan, and several other FSU countries will not be importing as much wheat as earlier forecast. **************************************************************************** * Information Contacts: * * Edward W. Allen (senior wheat analyst) (202) 219-0831 * * Bryan Just (domestic) (202) 501-8524 * * Sara Schwartz (international, domestic cross commodity) (202) 501-8514 * * Carolyn Whitton (international) (202) 219-0825 * **************************************************************************** Fundamentals of Wheat Supply and Demand In 1994/95 U.S. SUPPLY FORECAST DOWN 2 PERCENT FROM A YEAR EARLIER Reduced production and imports more than offset increased beginning stocks. Total U.S. wheat supplies are forecast below 3 billion bushels for the third time in 15 years. Although up from a year earlier, beginning stocks of 568 million bushels were the fourth lowest in 15 years. Imports are projected down because the large U.S. corn crop is reducing incentives to ship feed wheat south and a Memorandum of Understanding with Canada sets tariff rate quotas on wheat imports. U.S. production in 1994 was 2.32 billion bushels, down 3 percent from a year earlier but the fifth largest in the last 10 years. Despite a 0-percent ARP for the second year in a row, planted area continued to decline. Wheat prices before and during the early planting of winter wheat (August-September 1993) were much lower than prices affecting the planting of spring wheat (March-April 1994). Moreover, excess moisture and flooding prevented some winter wheat from being planted. Average yields declined 2 percent as below trend HRW yields more than offset record SRW yields. USE FORECAST UP 2 PERCENT U.S. wheat exports are projected at 1.25 billion bushels (34 million tons), up 2 percent from 1993/94. The U.S. share of global trade is expected to expand to 36 percent from 33 percent in 1993/94 because of reduced competitor exports.xx Drought in Australia has greatly lowered that country's supplies, so U.S. wheat exports to Egypt and several Asian and Middle Eastern countries are increasing. Global 1994/95 ending stocks will be the lowest since 1977/78 and the world stocks-to-use ratio will be the lowest since the USDA database began in 1960/61. Exporter supplies are very tight, so export prices are above a year ago. As competition has receded, EEP bonuses have fallen, and in March averaged about $15 per ton. Global trade is being reduced by larger production in some importing countries (especially Morocco and in Eastern Europe), less imports of wheat for feeding, and reduced imports by the former Soviet Union due to lower feed consumption. However, China is forecast to expand its imports more than 140 percent from a year ago to 10.5 million tons. Domestic use is forecast nearly the same in 1994/95 as a year earlier. Food use is down about 1 percent in 1994/95. After 2 years of growth much higher than the long term trend, food use in 1994/95 is relatively stable. This confirms that food use of wheat is a mature market, characterized by slow growth based on population increases and gradually changing dietary habits.xx Feed and residual use is forecast up slightly, and was up in the first three quarters of 1994/95. Because ending stocks are forecast to be the lowest in the last 20 years, a negative residual is expected in the last quarter of 1994/95. U.S. PRICES RESPOND TO TIGHTER WORLD FUNDAMENTALS The changes in the U.S. supply and demand support increased U.S. prices from last year. Reduced foreign production and tight competing exporters' supplies supported U.S. and world prices. Table 1 -- Wheat: U.S. market year supply and disappearance Item |1989/90 1990/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94E 1994/95P -------------------|------------------------------------------------------ Area (mil. ac.) | ARP (%) | 10.0 5.0 15.0 5.0 0.0 0.0 Nat'l total base | 91.1 90.8 89.6 89.6 89.6 88.9 CRP base retired | 8.8 10.3 10.4 10.6 10.8 10.8 Effective base | 82.3 80.5 79.2 78.9 78.4 78.1 0,50/92/85 | 3.5 5.3 5.8 4.0 5.7 5.2 Planted | 76.6 77.0 69.9 72.2 72.2 70.4 Harvested | 62.2 69.1 57.8 62.8 62.7 61.8 Yield (bu/ac) | 32.7 39.5 34.3 39.3 38.2 37.6 | Supply (mil. bu.) | Beg. Stocks | 701.6 536.5 868.1 475.0 530.7 568.5 Production | 2,036.6 2,729.8 1,980.1 2,466.8 2,396.4 2,320.6 Imports 1/ | 22.5 36.4 40.7 70.0 108.8 90.0 TOTAL | 2,760.7 3,302.6 2,889.0 3,011.8 3,035.9 2,979.1 | Use | Food | 748.9 789.8 789.5 834.8 871.7 865.0 Seed | 104.3 92.9 97.7 99.1 96.3 98.0 Feed & Residual | 139.1 482.4 244.5 193.6 271.6 275.0 Exports 1/ | 1,232.0 1,069.5 1,282.3 1,353.6 1,227.8 1,250.0 TOTAL | 2,224.3 2,434.5 2,413.9 2,481.2 2,467.4 2,488.0 | Ending stocks | 536.5 868.1 475.0 530.7 568.5 491.1 Farmer-owned | reserve | 144.0 14.0 50.0 28.0 6.0 0.0 CCC inventory 2/ | 117.0 163.0 152.0 150.0 150.0 142.0 Free stocks | 275.5 691.1 273.0 352.7 412.5 349.1 | Stocks-to-use | 24.1 35.7 19.7 21.4 23.0 19.7 | Prices ($/bu.) | Season average | 3.72 2.61 3.00 3.24 3.26 3.40-3.50 Target price | 4.10 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 Loan rate | 2.06 1.95 2.04 2.21 2.45 2.58 deficiency | payment rate | 0.32 1.28 1.35 0.81 1.03 0.61 3/ | Deficiency pmts.xx| (mil. dollars) | 571 2,420 2,246 1,371 1,904 | Market value | of production | (mil. dollars) | 7,542 7,184 5,957 7,984 7,812 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Totals may not add due to rounding. E--Estimated, P--Projected. 1/ Imports and exports include flour and other products expressed in wheat equivalent. 2/ From 1981 on, includes Food Security Reserve. 3/ Based on 5-month price + 10 cents. Table 2 -- Wheat supply and disappearance by class 1/ 1993/94E |HRW HRS SRW White Durum All Wheat ------------------|-------------------------------------------------- | Area: (mil. ac.) | Planted | 36.3 17.5 10.7 5.4 2.2 72.2 Harvested | 30.1 16.0 9.3 5.2 2.1 62.7 Yield (bu/ac) | 35.4 31.9 43.1 67.3 33.6 38.2 | | Supply: (mil. bu.)| Production | 1,066 512 401 347 70 2,396 Beg. stocks | 204 171 43 64 49 531 Imports 2/ | 4 66 0 9 31 109 TOTAL | 1,273 749 444 420 150 3,036 | Use: | Food | 385 195 147 65 80 872 Seed | 39 27 19 7 5 96 Residual | 136 60 60 32 (16) 272 Total domestic | 560 282 226 104 68 1,240 Exports 2/ | 486 266 173 249 54 1,228 TOTAL | 1,046 548 399 353 122 2,467 | Ending stocks | 227 201 45 67 28 568 1994/95P |HRW HRS SRW White Durum All Wheat ------------------|-------------------------------------------------- | Area: (mil. ac.) | Planted | 35.0 17.5 9.8 5.2 2.9 70.4 Harvested | 28.7 16.9 8.4 5.0 2.7 61.8 Yield (bu/ac) | 33.9 30.4 51.3 61.0 35.5 37.6 | | Supply: (mil. bu.)| Production | 971 515 433 303 97 2,321 Beg. stocks | 227 201 45 67 28 568 Imports 2/ | 4 51 0 15 20 90 TOTAL | 1,202 767 479 386 145 2,979 | Use: | Total domestic | 554 280 225 99 80 1,238 Exports 2/ | 450 300 220 240 40 1,250 TOTAL | 1,004 580 445 339 120 2,488 | Ending stocks | 199 187 34 47 25 491 --------------------------------------------------------------------- Totals may not add due to rounding. E--Estimated, P--Projected. 1/ ERS estimates of area, yield, and domestic use. Table 3 -- Wheat: Quarterly supply and disappearance (1,000 bu.) ----------|---------------------------------------------------------------- Market |Produc- Year | tion Imports Supply Food Seed Feed Exports E.stocks | 1/ 1/ ----------|---------------------------------------------------------------- | 1992/93: | Jun-Aug | 2,467 20 2,962 211 1 346 283 2,121 Sep-Nov | 0 16 2,137 219 63 (82) 345 1,592 Dec-Feb | 0 17 1,609 197 3 5 356 1,048 Mar-May | 0 16 1,064 208 32 (75) 370 531 Mkt. year| 2,467 70 3,012 835 99 194 1,354 531 | 1993/94E | Jun-Aug | 2,396 15 2,942 211 1 296 301 2,133 Sep-Nov | 0 30 2,163 225 61 (38) 329 1,586 Dec-Feb | 0 27 1,613 211 2 39 332 1,028 Mar-May | 0 37 1,065 224 32 (25) 266 568 Mkt. year| 2,396 109 3,036 872 96 272 1,228 568 | 1994/95P | Jun-Aug | 2,321 31 2,920 213 2 376 260 2,069 Sep-Nov | 0 21 2,091 229 62 (29) 338 1,491 Dec-Feb 2/| 0 18 1,509 206 2 26 307 968 Mar-May 3/| 0 20 988 217 32 (98) 345 491 Mkt. year| 2,321 90 2,979 865 98 275 1,250 491 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Totals may not add due to rounding. E--Estimated, P--Projected. 1/ Imports and exports include flour and other products expressed in wheat equivalent. 2/ Imports and exports estimated for February. 3/ Based on market year forecast. Table 4 -- Wheat: Food disappearance (1,000 bu.) Jun-Jan Jun-Jan 1994 | Nov Dec Jan Feb 1994/95 1993/94 --------------|------------------------------------------------------------ Mill grind +| 75,860 71,101 68,963 65,051 588,163 585,633 Food exports -| 4,676 4,866 2,835 -- 34,743 30,388 Food imports +| 1,867 1,935 1,788 -- 13,729 10,604 Non-flour | food use +| 1,900 1,900 1,950 1,950 15,250 14,450 Food use | 74,951 70,070 69,865 582,400 580,299 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Census. Wheat flour and products converted to wheat grain equivalent. Non-flour food use is ERS estimate. Table 5 -- Wheat: Farm prices and prices at selected markets ($/bu.) --------------------- Farm Prices ---------------------- All wheat Winter wheat Durum Other spring Month | 93/94 94/95 93/94 94/95 93/94 94/95 93/94 94/95 ------|----------------------------------------------------------------- Jun | 2.84 3.21 | 2.72 3.09 | 3.18 4.57 | 3.21 3.53 Jul | 2.85 3.04 | 2.76 2.99 | 3.26 4.50 | 3.50 3.26 Aug | 2.96 3.24 | 2.83 3.23 | 3.43 4.40 | 3.51 3.20 Sep | 3.10 3.56 | 2.88 3.56 | 3.92 4.60 | 3.37 3.39 Oct | 3.25 3.77 | 3.00 3.78 | 4.23 4.92 | 3.50 3.51 Nov | 3.47 3.76 | 3.21 3.75 | 4.91 4.86 | 3.67 3.51 Dec | 3.63 3.73 | 3.43 3.75 | 4.92 4.67 | 3.75 3.56 Jan | 3.58 3.69 | 3.38 3.67 | 4.97 4.58 | 3.69 3.51 Feb | 3.61 3.62 | 3.34 3.61 | 5.36 4.68 | 3.68 3.40 Mar 1/| 3.69 3.50 | 3.26 3.44 | 5.71 4.68 | 3.64 3.35 Apr | 3.56 | 3.25 | 5.70 | 3.68 May | 3.41 | 3.18 | 4.93 | 3.63 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ KC HRW #1 KC HRW #1 St. Louis Portland ordinary 13% prot. #2 SRW #1 soft white Month | 93/94 94/95 93/94 94/95 93/94 94/95 93/94 94/95 ------|----------------------------------------------------------------- Jun | 3.33 3.60 | 3.60 3.85 | 2.83 3.22 | 3.46 3.64 Jul | 3.38 3.48 | 3.89 3.63 | 2.94 3.11 | 3.57 3.52 Aug | 3.34 3.70 | 3.88 3.78 | 2.98 3.31 | 3.44 3.71 Sep | 3.37 4.05 | 4.23 4.12 | 2.75 3.69 | 3.42 4.32 Oct | 3.52 4.31 | 4.58 4.37 | 2.93 3.89 | 3.42 4.61 Nov | 3.39 4.24 | 4.98 4.31 | 3.33 3.84 | 3.47 4.54 Dec | 4.15 4.27 | 5.11 4.32 | 3.62 4.00 | 3.61 4.49 Jan | 4.00 4.06 | 4.69 4.07 | 3.83 3.83 | 3.63 4.33 Feb | 3.80 3.98 | 4.54 4.01 | 3.61 3.74 | 3.52 4.23 Mar | 3.64 | 4.39 | 3.36 | 3.46 Apr | 3.63 | 4.42 | 3.29 | 3.58 May | 3.65 | 4.46 | 3.24 | 3.74 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Minn. Minn. FOB Gulf Average EEP DNS 14% durum $/ton (HRW) bonus $/ton 2/ Month | 93/94 94/95 93/94 94/95 93/94 94/95 93/94 94/95 ------|----------------------------------------------------------------- Jun | 3.96 4.20 | 3.84 5.76 | 122 139 | 20.11 43.28 Jul | 4.80 4.14 | 4.05 5.19 | 129 138 | 42.44 42.18 Aug | 4.88 4.00 | 4.41 5.30 | 131 148 | 41.98 36.39 Sep | 4.90 4.27 | 5.06 6.16 | 132 159 | 50.36 37.61 Oct | 5.17 4.40 | 5.73 6.64 | 137 167 | 52.65 26.82 Nov | 5.50 4.41 | 6.38 6.61 | 147 162 | 53.61 22.44 Dec | 5.45 4.37 | 6.57 5.99 | 159 165 | 52.19 18.65 Jan | 5.32 4.21 | 6.56 6.23 | 155 156 | 59.65 15.26 Feb | 5.29 4.09 | 6.78 5.91 | 147 154 | 40.72 9.91 Mar | 4.94 | 7.06 | 141 150 | 52.30 15.20 Apr | 4.99 | 6.45 | 141 | 46.49 May | 5.05 | 6.17 | 140 | 47.40 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Source: NASS & AMS, USDA. 1/ Mid-month. 2/ Weighted avg., all classes. Table 6 -- Wheat: Exports and Imports U.S. wheat exports, 1994/95: (1,000 bu.) Jun-Jan Jun-Jan | Oct Nov Dec Jan 1994/95 1993/94 --------------|------------------------------------------------------------ Wheat grain | 101,450 107,549 104,139 93,735 768,046 839,523 Wheat flour | 3,105 4,721 4,734 2,805 34,155 29,917 Products | 145 141 147 112 1,321 1,019 Total | 104,699 112,411 109,020 96,652 803,522 870,459 U.S. wheat imports, 1994/95: (1,000 bu.) Jun-Oct Jun-Oct | Oct Nov Dec Jan 1994/95 1993/94 --------------|------------------------------------------------------------ Wheat grain | 5,801 5,462 4,327 4,109 50,564 51,681 Wheat flour | 650 700 697 776 5,108 3,554 Products | 1,022 1,168 1,685 1,014 9,082 7,055 Total | 7,473 7,329 6,709 5,899 64,754 62,290 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Census. Wheat flour and products converted to wheat grain equivalent. Table 7 -- Wheat: U.S. exports (1,000 metric tons) 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | 1993/94 | 1994/95 -----------|---------------------------------|--------------------------------- | as of | | as of | | 3/30/94 | | 3/30/95 | | Out- Total |1993/94 | Out- Total | |Ship- standingcommit- | Census |Ship- standingcommit- |USDA Country |ments sales ments 2/| total |ments sales ments 2/|forecast -----------|---------------------------------|------------------------|-------- | | | Algeria | 1,299 50 1,349 | 1,301 | 522 25 547 | China | 1,850 80 1,930 | 1,887 | 2,413 1,604 4,017 | Egypt | 2,518 916 3,434 | 2,975 | 4,697 815 5,512 | FSU | 1,271 126 1,397 | 2,659 | 846 79 925 | Japan | 2,697 578 3,275 | 3,266 | 2,978 726 3,704 | S. Korea | 1,353 169 1,522 | 1,544 | 1,282 214 1,496 | Morocco | 1,273 0 1,273 | 1,348 | 112 0 112 | Nigeria | 938 175 1,113 | 1,076 | 500 104 604 | Pakistan | 1,447 0 1,447 | 1,834 | 1,414 0 1,414 | Philippines| 1,519 464 1,983 | 1,883 | 1,530 401 1,931 | | | | | Total grain| 25,356 4,125 29,481 | 32,038 | 25,170 5,409 30,579 | | | | | Total (incl| | | | products)3/| 25,947 4,580 30,526 | 33,414 | 25,819 5,686 31,505 | 34,019 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ June - May. 2/ U.S. Export Sales Report. 3/ Grain equivalent basis. Table 8 -- Wheat Acreage (1,000 ac.) Table 9 -- Wheat Stocks ---------------------------------------- | ------------------------ 1994 1995 Percent | Stocks Million Planted Planting Change | Report Bushels Area Intentions | ---------------------------------------- | ------------------------ Major hard red winter states | 1990/91 KS 11,900 11,700 -1.7 | Jun 1 536 OK 7,100 7,000 -1.4 | Sep 1 2411 TX 6,000 6,200 3.3 | Dec 1 1910 CO 2,900 2,800 -3.4 | Mar 1 1398 NE 2,200 2,150 -2.3 | MT 1,950 1,700 -12.8 | 1991/92 SD 1,550 1,600 3.2 | Jun 1 868 CA 590 580 -1.7 | Sep 1 2055 NM 470 460 -2.1 | Dec 1 1448 WY 200 200 0.0 | Mar 1 892 Major soft red winter states | OH 1,200 1,230 2.5 | 1992/93 MO 1,200 1,300 8.3 | Jun 1 475 IL 1,150 1,500 30.4 | Sep 1 2121 AR 980 1,100 12.2 | Dec 1 1592 IN 680 700 2.9 | Mar 1 1048 NC 670 720 7.5 | KY 590 650 10.2 | 1993/94 TN 500 540 8.0 | Jun 1 531 GA 440 400 -9.1 | Sep 1 2133 SC 370 300 -18.9 | Dec 1 1586 Major white states | Mar 1 1028 WA 2,650 2,570 -3.0 | OR 965 1,015 5.2 | 1994/95 ID 1,490 1,470 -1.3 | Jun 1 568 MI 600 620 3.3 | Sep 1 2069 Major hard red spring states | Dec 1 1491 ND 9,100 8,500 -6.6 | Mar 1 968 MT 3,450 3,900 13.0 | MN 2,600 2,550 -1.9 | 1995/96F SD 2,100 2,200 4.8 | Jun 1 491 Major durum states | ------------------------ ND 2,450 2,800 14.3 | F--Forecast MT 180 260 44.4 | AZ 95 100 5.3 | | U.S. 70,421 70,929 0.7 | HRW 35,017 34,497 -1.5 | SRW 9,827 10,530 7.2 | White 5,205 5,090 -2.2 | HRS 17,522 17,522 0.0 | Durum 2,850 3,290 15.4 | ---------------------------------------- | END-END-END