WHEAT OUTLOOK May 12, 1995 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- WHEAT OUTLOOK is published monthly (except January) by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20005-4788. WHS--0595. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Recent Developments HIGHLIGHTS -- Winter wheat production forecast down. -- Total U.S. wheat production in 1995 to match 1994, 1995/96 supplies down. -- U.S. wheat use in 1995/96 projected down, stocks remain tight. -- Export competition to increase as foreign exporters boost production. WINTER WHEAT PRODUCTION FORECAST DOWN USDA forecast 1995 winter wheat production at 1.65 billion bushels, down 1.4 percent from the 1994 crop of 1.66 billion. The drop results from a 612,000- acre decline in harvested area, as the forecast yield of 40.2 bushels per acre is unchanged from 1994. Winter wheat plantings of 49.3 million acres are mostly unchanged from 1994. However, less of the plantings will be harvested for grain, pushing winter wheat production to the lowest since 1.61 billion bushels in 1992/93. As of May 6, 58 percent of the winter wheat crop was rated good or excellent, compared to 50 percent in 1994 and 76 percent in 1993. Crop conditions in the Corn Belt are much improved over last year. In the southeast, dry weather has limited yields. In the Southern Plains, crop conditions are mostly better than for the same time last year, and forecast yields are up in Oklahoma, Texas, and Colorado. Production in these states, is forecast to increase by a total of 35 million bushels over 1994. Although Kansas will remain the largest winter wheat producer, its crop is forecast at 375 million bushels, down sharply from 433 million last year. The decline in Kansas results from lower area and yields. In early April, freezing temperatures were reported in southwest Kansas as well as in the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles, further reducing production potential already limited by dryness. U.S. hard red winter wheat production is forecast at 941 million bushels, down 30 million from last year, as increased yields are more than offset by smaller harvested area. Soft red winter wheat production is forecast at 459 million bushels, up 6 percent as increased harvested area is partly offset by lower yields. Winter white production is forecast at 238 million bushels, down from 257 million bushels last year, as both area and yields are forecast to decline. SPRING WHEAT PRODUCTION PROJECTED UP Total spring wheat (including durum) is projected to reach 685 million bushels, up from 613 million in 1994. The Prospective Plantings report is used for planted acres, and a 10-year average, minus the high and the low, is used to calculate a harvested-to-planted ratio and yields. Spring wheat planting has been delayed by cold wet weather in the Northern Plains. Spring wheat seedings as of May 7, were 23 percent completed, compared to the 5-year average of 67 percent. South Dakota plantings have been especially delayed with only 17 percent planted compared to an average of 89 percent. TOTAL U.S. SUPPLIES DOWN, ALTHOUGH PRODUCTION IN 1995 PROJECTED TO MATCH 1994 U.S. wheat production is projected to reach 2,323 million bushels similar to 2,321 million produced a year earlier. U.S. wheat imports, including the wheat equivalent of flour and selected products, are projected to increase modestly from 90 million bushels in 1994/95 to 100 million in 1995/96. The 1995/96 U.S. import projection does not reflect any restrictions on U.S. grain imports after the U.S.-Canada Memorandum of Understanding expires September 12, 1995. During the summer of 1995 wheat imports are expected to be lower than a year earlier, but in the fall, as new-crop Canadian wheat is expected to boost supplies of good quality, imports will likely increase. U.S. wheat supplies in 1995/96 are projected down despite stable production and increasing imports because beginning stocks are forecast down 77 million bushels to 491 million, a decline of 14 percent. Total use in 1994/95 is estimated stronger than the previous 6 years, reducing U.S. stocks. Lower beginning stocks in 1995/96 reduce projected U.S. wheat supplies to 2,914 million bushels, down 2 percent from a year earlier, and the third lowest in the last 18 years. USE PROJECTED DOWN IN 1995/96, PRICES REMAIN BUOYANT Limited U.S. wheat supplies and continued relatively high wheat prices are expected to reduce domestic use and exports. However, food use is projected up modestly, in line with population growth and a slowing increase in per capita consumption. Food use is not expected to be responsive to price changes because the cost of wheat is a small portion of the price of most foods using wheat. Feed and residual use is expected down. Smaller supplies likely mean less losses due to storage and handling. High wheat prices compared to feed grain prices should limit wheat feeding to low quality wheat. U.S. exports are also projected down, dropping projected total use 3 percent. Total use of 2,423 million bushels would be lower than in 4 of the previous 5 years. However, no increase in stocks is foreseen, as reduced demand will be offset by lower supplies, leaving stocks unchanged. WHEAT EXPORT COMPETITION TO INCREASE IN 1995/96 AS IMPORT GROWTH STAGNATES AND COMPETITOR PRODUCTION RISES U.S. wheat exports are projected to contract somewhat in 1995/96, slipping 1.5 million tons to 33 million (1.2 billion bushels) because of increased competition. Australia, Argentina, and the European Union (EU15) are projected to increase exports. Australia's anticipated recovery from its 1994/95 drought will raise expected exports from 7.2 million to 9 million tons in 1995/96. The recent drop in EU15 internal grain prices to near the intervention level, coupled with larger EU15 production in 1995/96, will make EU15 exports more competitive. EU15 exports are projected at 19 million tons, up 2 million. Canada's exports are projected at 18 million tons, down from 21 million because of tight supplies. World wheat trade is projected up slightly from 1994/95, with prospects for increased imports by China and Morocco offsetting reduced imports by Egypt, South Korea, and Pakistan. Drought is decimating Morocco's 1995/96 wheat crop and leading to projected imports of 3 million tons, more than triple its 1994/95 imports. China's growing incomes and population are boosting wheat demand and imports are projected up 0.5 million tons to 11 million. But Egypt and Pakistan expect larger production to lower import needs, while South Korea will take corn instead of feed wheat as availability of feed wheat declines. And Russia's imports will continue to be limited by the availability of financial assistance and shrinking demand, particularly for livestock feed. Expected exportable world stocks will be very tight again at the end of 1995/96. With tight stocks, prices will continue to be responsive to changes in production and demand prospects. Stocks are tight because global consumption is projected to exceed use for the third consecutive year. Global production is projected to rise in 1995/96 as area expands in several major producing countries. Also, the assumption of normal yields points to recovery in countries, such as Australia and the FSU. World area is projected up 3.4 million hectares to 219 million and output is expected to reach 549 million tons, up 4 percent. Area and production are expected to expand in major exporting countries-- Canada, the EU15, Australia, and Argentina. Australia is projected to have the largest gain in area because drought has eased. Australia's outturn is projected at 15 million tons in 1995/96, compared with its poor 1994/95 crop of only 8.8 million. Area in Argentina is projected 6 percent larger at 5.2 million hectares as strong export demand encourages farmers to plant more. Statistics Canada reports farmers intend to plant 11.2 million hectares of wheat in 1995/96, up from 11 million in 1994/95; but durum area is projected to drop from 5.8 million to 5.3 million hectares. Canadian wheat production is projected up 5 percent to 24.5 million tons. In the EU15, the reduction in the acreage set-aside requirement, along with high EU15 internal wheat prices, encouraged acreage expansion in 1995/96. But drought in Spain and Portugal is limiting overall gains. Output in the EU15 is projected at 88.2 million tons, up 4 percent. **************************************************************************** * Information Contacts: * * Edward W. Allen (senior wheat analyst) (202) 219-0831 * * Bryan Just (domestic) (202) 501-8524 * * Sara Schwartz (international, domestic cross commodity) (202) 501-8514 * * Carolyn Whitton (international) (202) 219-0825 * **************************************************************************** Fundamentals of Wheat Supply and Demand In 1994/95 U.S. SUPPLY FORECAST DOWN 2 PERCENT FROM A YEAR EARLIER Reduced production and imports more than offset increased beginning stocks. Total U.S. wheat supplies for 1994/95 are forecast below 3 billion bushels for the third time in 15 years. Although up from a year earlier, beginning stocks of 568 million bushels were the fourth lowest in 15 years. Imports are projected down because the large U.S. corn crop is reducing incentives to ship feed wheat south and a Memorandum of Understanding with Canada sets tariff rate quotas on wheat imports. U.S. production in 1994 was 2.32 billion bushels, down 3 percent from a year earlier but the fifth largest in the last 10 years. Despite a 0-percent ARP for the second year in a row, planted area continued to decline. Wheat prices before and during the early planting of winter wheat (August-September 1993) were much lower than prices affecting the planting of spring wheat (March-April 1994). Moreover, excess moisture and flooding prevented some winter wheat from being planted. Average yields declined 2 percent as below trend HRW yields more than offset record SRW yields. USE FORECAST UP 2 PERCENT U.S. wheat exports are projected at 1.25 billion bushels (34 million tons), up 2 percent from 1993/94. The U.S. share of global trade is expected to expand to 36 percent from 33 percent in 1993/94 because of reduced competitor exports. Drought in Australia has greatly lowered that country's supplies, so U.S. wheat exports to Egypt and several Asian and Middle Eastern countries are increasing. Global 1994/95 ending stocks will be the lowest since 1981/82 and the world stocks-to-use ratio will be the lowest since the USDA database began in 1960/61. Exporter supplies are very tight, so export prices are above a year ago. As competition has receded, EEP bonuses have fallen, and in March averaged about $15 per ton. Global trade is being reduced by larger production in some importing countries (especially Morocco and in Eastern Europe), less imports of wheat for feeding, and reduced imports by the former Soviet Union due to lower feed consumption. However, China is forecast to expand its imports more than 140 percent from a year ago to 10.5 million tons. Domestic use is forecast nearly the same in 1994/95 as a year earlier. Food use is down about 1 percent. After 2 years of growing much higher than the long term trend, food use in 1994/95 is relatively stable. This confirms that food use of wheat is a mature market, characterized by slow growth based on population increases and gradually changing dietary habits. Feed and residual use is forecast up slightly, and was up in the first three quarters of 1994/95. Because ending stocks are forecast to be the lowest in the last 20 years, a negative residual is expected in the last quarter of 1994/95. U.S. PRICES RESPOND TO TIGHTER WORLD FUNDAMENTALS The changes in the U.S. supply and demand support increased U.S. prices from last year. Reduced foreign production and tight competing exporters' supplies supported U.S. and world prices. Table 1 -- Wheat: U.S. market year supply and disappearance Item |1990/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95E 1995/96P -------------------|------------------------------------------------------ Area (mil. ac.) | ARP (%) | 5.0 15.0 5.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Nat'l total base | 90.8 89.6 89.6 89.6 88.9 88.5 CRP base retired | 10.3 10.4 10.6 10.8 10.8 10.8 Effective base | 80.5 79.2 78.9 78.4 78.1 78.0 0,50/92/85 | 5.3 5.8 4.0 5.7 5.2 5.2 Planted | 77.0 69.9 72.2 72.2 70.4 70.9 Harvested | 69.1 57.8 62.8 62.7 61.8 61.4 Yield (bu/ac) | 39.5 34.3 39.3 38.2 37.6 37.8 | Supply (mil. bu.) | Beg. Stocks | 536.5 868.1 475.0 530.7 568.5 491.1 Production | 2,729.8 1,980.1 2,466.8 2,396.4 2,320.6 2,323.2 Imports 1/ | 36.4 40.7 70.0 108.8 90.0 100.0 TOTAL | 3,302.6 2,889.0 3,011.8 3,035.9 2,979.1 2,914.3 | Use | Food | 789.8 789.5 834.8 871.7 865.0 875.0 Seed | 92.9 97.7 99.1 96.3 98.0 98.0 Feed & Residual | 482.4 244.5 193.6 271.6 275.0 250.0 Exports 1/ | 1,069.5 1,282.3 1,353.6 1,227.8 1,250.0 1,200.0 TOTAL | 2,434.5 2,413.9 2,481.2 2,467.4 2,488.0 2,423.0 | Ending stocks | 868.1 475.0 530.7 568.5 491.1 491.3 Farmer-owned | reserve | 14.0 50.0 28.0 6.0 0.0 0.0 CCC inventory 2/ | 163.0 152.0 150.0 150.0 142.0 142.0 Free stocks | 691.1 273.0 352.7 412.5 349.1 349.3 | Stocks-to-use | 35.7 19.7 21.4 23.0 19.7 20.3 | Prices ($/bu.) | Season average | 2.61 3.00 3.24 3.26 3.45 3.25-3.65 Target price | 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 Loan rate | 1.95 2.04 2.21 2.45 2.58 2.58 deficiency | payment rate | 1.28 1.35 0.81 1.03 0.61 3/ | Deficiency pmts. | (mil. dollars) | 2,420 2,246 1,371 1,904 1,146 | Market value | of production | (mil. dollars) | 7,184 5,957 7,984 7,812 8,006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Totals may not add due to rounding. E--Estimated, P--Projected. 1/ Imports and exports include flour and other products expressed in wheat equivalent. 2/ From 1981 on, includes Food Security Reserve. 3/ Based on 5-month price + 10 cents. Table 2 -- Wheat supply and disappearance by class 1/ 1993/94E |HRW HRS SRW White Durum All Wheat ------------------|-------------------------------------------------- | Area: (mil. ac.) | Planted | 36.3 17.5 10.7 5.4 2.2 72.2 Harvested | 30.1 16.0 9.3 5.2 2.1 62.7 Yield (bu/ac) | 35.4 31.9 43.1 67.3 33.6 38.2 | | Supply: (mil. bu.)| Production | 1,066 512 401 347 70 2,396 Beg. stocks | 204 171 43 64 49 531 Imports 2/ | 4 66 0 9 31 109 TOTAL | 1,273 749 444 420 150 3,036 | Use: | Food | 385 195 147 65 80 872 Seed | 39 27 19 7 5 96 Residual | 136 60 60 32 (16) 272 Total domestic | 560 282 226 104 68 1,240 Exports 2/ | 486 266 173 249 54 1,228 TOTAL | 1,046 548 399 353 122 2,467 | Ending stocks | 227 201 45 67 28 568 1994/95P |HRW HRS SRW White Durum All Wheat ------------------|-------------------------------------------------- | Area: (mil. ac.) | Planted | 35.0 17.5 9.8 5.2 2.9 70.4 Harvested | 28.7 16.9 8.4 5.0 2.7 61.8 Yield (bu/ac) | 33.9 30.4 51.3 61.0 35.5 37.6 | | Supply: (mil. bu.)| Production | 971 515 433 303 97 2,321 Beg. stocks | 227 201 45 67 28 568 Imports 2/ | 4 49 0 15 22 90 TOTAL | 1,202 765 479 386 147 2,979 | Use: | Total domestic | 554 280 225 99 80 1,238 Exports 2/ | 450 300 220 240 40 1,250 TOTAL | 1,004 580 445 339 120 2,488 | Ending stocks | 199 185 34 47 27 491 --------------------------------------------------------------------- Totals may not add due to rounding. E--Estimated, P--Projected. 1/ ERS estimates of area, yield, and domestic use. Table 3 -- Wheat: Quarterly supply and disappearance (1,000 bu.) ----------|---------------------------------------------------------------- Market |Produc- Year | tion Imports Supply Food Seed Feed Exports E.stocks | 1/ 1/ ----------|---------------------------------------------------------------- | 1992/93: | Jun-Aug | 2,467 20 2,962 211 1 346 283 2,121 Sep-Nov | 0 16 2,137 219 63 (82) 345 1,592 Dec-Feb | 0 17 1,609 197 3 5 356 1,048 Mar-May | 0 16 1,064 208 32 (75) 370 531 Mkt. year| 2,467 70 3,012 835 99 194 1,354 531 | 1993/94E | Jun-Aug | 2,396 15 2,942 211 1 296 301 2,133 Sep-Nov | 0 30 2,163 225 61 (38) 329 1,586 Dec-Feb | 0 27 1,613 211 2 39 332 1,028 Mar-May | 0 37 1,065 224 32 (25) 266 568 Mkt. year| 2,396 109 3,036 872 96 272 1,228 568 | 1994/95P | Jun-Aug | 2,321 31 2,920 213 2 376 260 2,069 Sep-Nov | 0 21 2,091 229 62 (29) 338 1,491 Dec-Feb | 0 18 1,509 201 2 26 310 968 Mar-May 2/| 0 20 988 221 32 (98) 342 491 Mkt. year| 2,321 90 2,979 865 98 275 1,250 491 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Totals may not add due to rounding. E--Estimated, P--Projected. 1/ Imports and exports include flour and other products expressed in wheat equivalent. 2/ Based on market year forecast. Table 4 -- Wheat: Food disappearance (1,000 bu.) Jun-Feb Jun-Feb 1994 | Dec Jan Feb Mar 1994/95 1993/94 --------------|------------------------------------------------------------ Mill grind +| 71,101 68,963 65,143 76,815 653,306 653,960 Food exports -| 4,866 2,835 7,213 -- 41,956 34,811 Food imports +| 1,935 1,788 1,694 -- 15,423 12,143 Non-flour | food use +| 1,900 1,950 1,950 1,950 17,200 16,300 Food use | 70,070 69,865 61,573 643,973 647,592 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Census. Wheat flour and products converted to wheat grain equivalent. Non-flour food use is ERS estimate. Table 5 -- Wheat: Farm prices and prices at selected markets ($/bu.) --------------------- Farm Prices ---------------------- All wheat Winter wheat Durum Other spring Month | 93/94 94/95 93/94 94/95 93/94 94/95 93/94 94/95 ------|----------------------------------------------------------------- Jun | 2.84 3.21 | 2.72 3.09 | 3.18 4.59 | 3.21 3.51 Jul | 2.85 3.04 | 2.76 2.99 | 3.26 4.32 | 3.50 3.28 Aug | 2.96 3.25 | 2.83 3.23 | 3.43 4.30 | 3.51 3.19 Sep | 3.10 3.57 | 2.88 3.57 | 3.92 4.51 | 3.37 3.38 Oct | 3.25 3.76 | 3.00 3.79 | 4.23 4.89 | 3.49 3.52 Nov | 3.47 3.75 | 3.21 3.76 | 4.91 4.88 | 3.66 3.51 Dec | 3.63 3.74 | 3.43 3.75 | 4.92 4.67 | 3.74 3.56 Jan | 3.58 3.69 | 3.41 3.67 | 4.97 4.58 | 3.69 3.51 Feb | 3.60 3.61 | 3.36 3.61 | 5.41 4.68 | 3.67 3.40 Mar | 3.70 3.53 | 3.26 3.47 | 5.75 4.61 | 3.66 3.38 Apr 1/| 3.56 3.51 | 3.24 3.44 | 5.73 4.49 | 3.68 3.42 May | 3.43 | 3.17 | 5.06 | 3.63 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ KC HRW #1 KC HRW #1 St. Louis Portland ordinary 13% prot. #2 SRW #1 soft white Month | 93/94 94/95 93/94 94/95 93/94 94/95 93/94 94/95 ------|----------------------------------------------------------------- Jun | 3.33 3.60 | 3.60 3.85 | 2.83 3.22 | 3.46 3.64 Jul | 3.38 3.48 | 3.89 3.63 | 2.94 3.11 | 3.57 3.52 Aug | 3.34 3.70 | 3.88 3.78 | 2.98 3.31 | 3.44 3.71 Sep | 3.37 4.05 | 4.23 4.12 | 2.75 3.69 | 3.42 4.32 Oct | 3.52 4.31 | 4.58 4.37 | 2.93 3.89 | 3.42 4.61 Nov | 3.39 4.24 | 4.98 4.31 | 3.33 3.84 | 3.47 4.54 Dec | 4.15 4.27 | 5.11 4.32 | 3.62 4.00 | 3.61 4.49 Jan | 4.00 4.06 | 4.69 4.07 | 3.83 3.83 | 3.63 4.33 Feb | 3.80 3.98 | 4.54 4.01 | 3.61 3.74 | 3.52 4.23 Mar | 3.64 3.87 | 4.39 3.91 | 3.36 3.59 | 3.46 3.98 Apr | 3.63 3.86 | 4.42 3.95 | 3.29 3.55 | 3.58 4.08 May | 3.65 | 4.46 | 3.24 | 3.74 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Minn. Minn. FOB Gulf Average EEP DNS 14% durum $/ton (HRW) bonus $/ton 2/ Month | 93/94 94/95 93/94 94/95 93/94 94/95 93/94 94/95 ------|----------------------------------------------------------------- Jun | 3.96 4.20 | 3.84 5.76 | 122 139 | 20.11 43.28 Jul | 4.80 4.14 | 4.05 5.19 | 129 138 | 42.44 42.18 Aug | 4.88 4.00 | 4.41 5.30 | 131 148 | 41.98 36.39 Sep | 4.90 4.27 | 5.06 6.16 | 132 159 | 50.36 37.61 Oct | 5.17 4.40 | 5.73 6.64 | 137 167 | 52.65 26.82 Nov | 5.50 4.41 | 6.38 6.61 | 147 162 | 53.61 22.44 Dec | 5.45 4.37 | 6.57 5.99 | 159 165 | 52.19 18.65 Jan | 5.32 4.21 | 6.56 6.23 | 155 156 | 59.65 15.26 Feb | 5.29 4.09 | 6.78 5.91 | 147 154 | 40.72 9.91 Mar | 4.94 4.11 | 7.06 5.87 | 141 150 | 52.30 15.20 Apr | 4.99 4.30 | 6.45 5.64 | 141 149 | 46.49 20.52 May | 5.05 | 6.17 | 140 | 47.40 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Source: NASS & AMS, USDA. 1/ Mid-month. 2/ Weighted avg., all classes. Table 6 -- Wheat: Exports and Imports U.S. wheat exports, 1994/95: (1,000 bu.) Jun-Feb Jun-Feb | Nov Dec Jan Feb 1994/95 1993/94 --------------|------------------------------------------------------------ Wheat grain | 107,549 104,139 93,735 97,478 865,523 926,773 Wheat flour | 4,721 4,734 2,805 7,085 41,240 34,306 Products | 141 147 112 136 1,457 1,161 Total | 112,411 109,020 96,652 104,699 908,221 962,241 U.S. wheat imports, 1994/95: (1,000 bu.) Jun-Feb Jun-Feb | Nov Dec Jan Feb 1994/95 1993/94 --------------|------------------------------------------------------------ Wheat grain | 5,462 4,327 4,109 3,344 53,908 59,465 Wheat flour | 700 697 776 735 5,844 4,243 Products | 1,168 1,685 1,014 964 10,045 7,907 Total | 7,329 6,709 5,899 5,043 69,797 71,615 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Census. Wheat flour and products converted to wheat grain equivalent. Table 7 -- Wheat: U.S. exports (1,000 metric tons) 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | 1993/94 | 1994/95 -----------|---------------------------------|--------------------------------- | as of | | as of | | 5/4/94 | | 5/4/95 | | Out- Total |1993/94 | Out- Total | |Ship- standingcommit- | Census |Ship- standingcommit- |USDA Country |ments sales ments 2/| total |ments sales ments 2/|forecast -----------|---------------------------------|------------------------|-------- | | | Algeria | 1,323 50 1,373 | 1,301 | 522 25 547 | China | 1,933 0 1,933 | 1,887 | 2,997 1,029 4,026 | Egypt | 2,787 659 3,446 | 2,975 | 5,156 362 5,518 | FSU | 1,394 0 1,394 | 2,659 | 928 20 948 | Japan | 3,014 528 3,542 | 3,266 | 3,252 612 3,864 | S. Korea | 1,459 72 1,531 | 1,544 | 1,447 85 1,532 | Morocco | 1,304 0 1,304 | 1,348 | 112 0 112 | Nigeria | 1,050 97 1,147 | 1,076 | 567 87 654 | Pakistan | 1,447 300 1,747 | 1,834 | 1,414 0 1,414 | Philippines| 1,739 247 1,986 | 1,883 | 1,758 188 1,946 | | | | | Total grain| 27,561 3,106 30,668 | 32,038 | 28,217 3,375 31,592 | | | | | Total (incl| | | | products)3/| 28,268 3,448 31,716 | 33,414 | 28,888 3,631 32,519 | 34,019 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ June - May. 2/ U.S. Export Sales Report. 3/ Grain equivalent basis. Table 8 -- Winter Wheat Production --------------------------------------------------------------------------- ************* 1995 ************ 1994 1995 Percent Planting Harvested Yield Production Production Change Intentions Area (bu/ac) (1,000 bu) (1,000 bu) from 1994 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Major hard red winter states KS 11,700 10,700 35 433,200 374,500 -13.6 OK 7,000 5,200 31 143,100 161,200 12.6 CO 2,800 2,500 34 76,500 85,000 11.1 TX 6,200 3,000 28 75,400 84,000 11.4 NE 2,150 2,000 38 71,400 76,000 6.4 MT 1,700 1,600 35 64,750 56,000 -13.5 SD 1,600 1,400 35 43,200 49,000 13.4 CA 580 440 70 38,760 30,800 -20.5 NM 460 200 27 5,520 5,400 -2.2 UT 145 135 39 6,000 5,265 -12.3 WY 200 180 25 4,320 4,500 4.2 AZ 25 23 95 2,632 2,185 -17.0 Major soft red winter states IL 1,500 1,400 57 50,400 79,800 58.3 OH 1,230 1,210 57 68,440 68,970 0.8 MO 1,300 1,200 45 49,500 54,000 9.1 AR 1,100 1,000 45 40,480 45,000 11.2 IN 700 660 63 38,430 41,580 8.2 NC 720 680 43 30,380 29,240 -3.8 KY 650 460 54 25,200 24,840 -1.4 VA 300 275 55 14,000 15,125 8.0 TN 540 330 42 15,000 13,860 -7.6 GA 400 340 38 20,400 12,920 -36.7 MD 220 210 57 12,100 11,970 -1.1 SC 300 290 35 18,000 10,150 -43.6 PA 190 185 52 7,920 9,620 21.5 MS 200 175 40 6,400 7,000 9.4 WI 145 135 51 7,670 6,885 -10.2 Major white states WA 2,200 2,100 54 124,200 113,400 -8.7 OR 900 800 63 55,680 50,400 -9.5 ID 830 770 69 56,880 53,130 -6.6 MI 620 600 55 30,740 33,000 7.4 NY 125 115 53 6,095 6,095 0.0 U.S. 49,252 40,723 40 1,661,043 1,638,211 -1.4 HRW 34,497 27,370 34 971,134 940,686 -3.1 SRW 10,530 9,269 50 433,335 459,113 5.9 White 1/ 4,225 4,083 58 256,574 238,412 -7.1 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Winter white production only. 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