WHEAT OUTLOOK December 12, 1997 December 1997, Issue number WHS-1297 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WHEAT OUTLOOK is issued monthly by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. This report and the others in this series (COTTON & WOOL OUTLOOK, FEED OUTLOOK, OIL CROPS OUTLOOK, and RICE OUTLOOK) are only available electronically; there is no published version of these reports. For further information on our products and services, please call the ERS Information Center at (202) 694-5050. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HIGHLIGHTS --U.S. Wheat Forecasts Mostly Unchanged for 1997/98 --Foreign Production Increased This Month, World Trade Up --Special article--Price Variability --Special article--What's the Trend in U.S. Wheat Yields? U.S. Wheat Forecasts Mostly Unchanged for 1997/98 The U.S. wheat market was mostly steady in November and early December, after generally declining since September. It has been digesting the potential for improved growing conditions in the Southern Hemisphere and aggressive Canadian selling, particularly in South America. Meanwhile, steady sales to Pakistan and Egypt and rumors of possible purchases by China have supported prices. The price differential between the Kansas City futures contracts for May 1998 and March 1998 has shrunk to about 6 cents per bushel, down from 8 cents a month ago. The narrowing suggests reduced price expectations as the season progresses. Nevertheless, the difference remains positive, implying rising prices into the 1998 crop year. The positive "carry" reflects a risk premium for supply and demand uncertainty, as well as charges for storage and interest. Meanwhile, prospects for rising U.S. and global supplies relative to use translate into lower cash prices compared with last year. This situation is in sharp contrast to a year ago when the market had to absorb very large production and exports from Argentina, Australia, and the European Union (EU). At this time last year, the futures market was "inverted," with the March contract trading at 36 cents above the May contract. The only change from last month in the 1997/98 U.S. wheat supply, use, and price forecast is a 5-million-bushel drop in imports to 90 million bushels, based on projected lower second quarter (September-November) shipments. Ending stocks are adjusted down by the same amount. Imports in 1996/97 were 92 million bushels. On January 13, 1998, USDA will release several reports that will have implications for the wheat market. USDA's estimate of December 1 wheat stocks in the Grain Stocks report will provide the first firm indication of second-quarter use (September-November). Also, final production estimates for 1997 (in contrast to the preliminary estimates released in September) will be released for all wheat classes in USDA's Crop Production-Annual. Finally, the first forecast of winter wheat seedings will give us a glimpse of 1998 crop potential. Foreign Production Increased This Month, World Trade Up World wheat production is forecast at a record 605 million tons, up almost 2 million from last month and up 26 million from the first forecast in May. Better-than-expected weather has boosted prospects in several countries since the beginning of the marketing year. Production forecasts for Canada, Australia, Argentina, and Kazakstan in 1997/98 were increased a total of 2.5 million tons this month, only partly offset by reductions in the EU and others. Although competitors' production and export forecasts increased again this month, combined production in Australia, Argentina, Canada, and the EU is still 17 million tons less than a year ago. Most of the changes reflect government harvest reports or forecasts. In Canada, larger supplies are expected to move into export channels, as the Canadian Wheat Board has demonstrated it will sell aggressively this year. In Argentina most, but not all, of the additional production is expected to be exported during the July-June international trade year. However, in Australia, quality problems are expected to divert more of the crop to domestic feeding. In Kazakstan, drought has kept production below average for the third consecutive year, so the additional production forecast this month is expected to replenish stocks. Forecast imports for 1997/98 increased this month for Pakistan and Russia, based on strong purchases to date, and in the case of Pakistan, on announced credit availability. Increased forecast imports and larger competitor exports boosted world wheat trade to 97.9 million tons (up 0.8 million from last month and 1.2 million from 1996/97) even though the U.S. export estimate remained unchanged. Wheat-By-Class Price Variability Higher in the 1990's by James N. Barnes U.S. agricultural markets such as wheat have always been subject to extreme price variability due to weather events and changes in agricultural policies here and abroad. The 1996 farm act continued the evolution begun in the mid-1980s toward less government intervention in commodity markets. Loan rates continue to provide some price support and stability, but only at relatively low price levels. Many have questioned how the elimination of farm programs will affect commodity price variability. Not only the levels of price variability are in question, but also what causes changes in price variability and what effects will they have on U.S. commodity markets and farmers. This article provides a brief analysis of price variability for U.S. wheat (by class). The analysis serves as a proxy for determining how price variability has changed between the 1980s and the 1990s, although it does not include data since the implementation of the 1996 farm act. Price variability may be defined in many ways. A simple measure is the sample variance statistic, defined for a set of n observed values as the sum of the squared deviations (observed value minus the sample mean) divided by n-1. The standard deviation (STD) is the square root of the variance, and by itself, does not fully measure variability because the absolute level of mean prices could be changing. A more revealing statistic is the coefficient of variation (CV). The CV statistic is the ratio of the STD and the mean, expressed in percentage terms. The CV statistic takes into account variability measured by STD, as well as measuring the change in the mean price from one time period to another. For our purposes, price variability will be measured by the CV statistic. For each class of wheat, CV statistics are calculated using season-average farm prices for two periods: 1981/82-1989/90 and 1990/91-1995/96. Price variability increased approximately 4.5 percentage points for all wheat between the two periods, with by-class percentage point increases ranging from 3.4 to 15.6 for white and durum, respectively (see table A). Durum price variability is the highest among all the classes in terms of the absolute level and percentage point change from one decade to the next. Higher price variability for durum may be attributed to a lower price elasticity of demand for durum relative to other classes of wheat. (Elasticity of demand measures the responsiveness of quantity demanded to a change in price, all other things being equal.) The durum market is considered a more inelastic market, relative to the other classes, as there are few substitutes for durum grain. (Hard red spring wheat in the upper protein range may be substituted for durum in some products.) To some degree, the elasticity of demand helps explain different levels of price variability for all classes. Hard red winter (HRW) price variability increased 6.9 percentage points between the two periods. HRW ranks second among the classes in terms of the absolute level and percentage point change from one decade to the next. Soft red winter (SRW) price variability increased 4.9 percentage points, but exhibits the lowest absolute level of price variability among the classes of wheat. One potential reason explaining this could be that SRW has a more elastic demand than any of the other classes. In years when quality is poor, SRW is often fed to livestock. If quality is good, a larger share of the crop is exported and/or processed domestically for use in food products such as crackers and cookies. White wheat price variability increased only 3.4 percentage points, while the absolute level of price variability ranked third behind durum and HRW. Some of the white wheat variability may be caused by fluctuations in export demand within seasons, which greatly influence the price of white wheat. While nominal price variability has increased for all classes of wheat, evaluating real price variability (using prices deflated by the Consumer Price Index) yields mixed results. Real price variability decreased 3.2 percentage points for all wheat as increases for SRW and durum were more than offset by reduced variability for HRW, spring, and white wheat. Durum real price variability was the highest at 27.4 percent in the 1990s, while SRW had the lowest variability at 14.5 percent. Whether analyzing real or nominal price variability, durum prices are the most variable of all the classes of wheat (as expected) and price variability for both durum and SRW has increased from the 1980s to the 1990s. Recent disease and weather problems (excluding the 1997 crop) and subsequent supply fluctuations may be affecting SRW price variability more than for other classes of wheat. Explaining why price variability changes, both nominally and in real terms, is difficult. Some of the change could be the inherent price elasticities of demand for each class of wheat, coupled with weather events and changes in U.S. and foreign agricultural policies. Table A--Nominal price variability for U.S. wheat ----------------------------------------------------------------- Coefficient of variation Absolute Wheat class 1980's 1990's change ----------------------------------------------------------------- Percent Percentage points All wheat 14.97 19.52 4.55 Hard red winter 15.34 22.21 6.87 Soft red winter 13.30 18.19 4.89 Spring 13.68 18.97 5.29 White 15.30 18.67 3.37 Durum 15.74 31.37 15.63 ----------------------------------------------------------------- Source: 1997 Wheat Yearbook, table 20--Wheat farm prices for leading classes in U.S. regions, Economic Research Service, USDA. What's the Trend in U.S. Wheat Yields? by Dennis A. Shields Yield growth is a crucial factor in determining future crop supplies, which influence the long-term price outlook. After declining in 3 of the last 4 years, U.S. wheat yields hit a record 39.7 bushels per acre in 1997, spurring interest in the potential for additional gains. U.S. average yields for corn and soybeans have clear upward long-term trends. But for wheat, identifying the yield trend at the U.S. level is more elusive and depends on the time period chosen for analysis. This analysis estimates the U.S. wheat yield from an examination of individual state trends. Using the same time period for all states when estimating the U.S. wheat yield trend may not be appropriate if trends vary by state. Instead, different time periods that appear to best reflect current linear trend yields are chosen for each state. Individual state trends are then weighted by an average of harvested area (1995-97) and aggregated into a U.S. wheat yield total. U.S. wheat yields increased sharply from the mid-1950s to the early 1980s as short and semi-dwarf varieties were developed and adopted. The shorter height enables plants to respond to increased fertilizer use and other production practices without lodging (i.e., falling over) before harvest (Dalrymple, 1988). Additional genetic improvements, such as early maturity and disease resistance, as well as improved production practices, also contributed to higher yields. But since the early 1980s, there has been a noticeable slowdown in overall U.S. wheat yield growth. Some would even call it a stall. The modest overall upward trend in U.S. wheat yields is generally true for both spring and winter wheat, although growth rates vary. Also, there are differences within the winter wheat classes. Because winter wheat yield is dominated by hard red winter (accounting for 60 percent of total winter production in 1997), relatively flat yields in the last 15-20 years in each of three major hard red winter states--Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas--have limited gains in total winter wheat yields. During the same period, soft red winter wheat has had modest yield growth while white winter yields in the Pacific Northwest have gained steadily. Looking closely at several key wheat-producing states reveals differences among states and classes. Hard Red Winter A 20-year period appears to be reasonable for representing the current long-term yield trend in Kansas. During 1978-97, trend yield growth in Kansas was just 0.04 bushels per acre per year. Prior to this, yield gains were much larger, and likely related to the adoption of short-stemmed varieties. Actual average yields in Kansas during this period have deviated sharply from the trend line. Only 5 percent of the year-to-year variation in yields is explained by the passage of time (which captures improvements in technology and management). Other factors such as weather likely explain much of the variability in Kansas wheat yields around its trend line. Oklahoma average yields trended downward during the 20-year period due to a series of unfortunate weather problems, mostly drought and freeze. So instead of a 20-year trend, a 10-year average (excluding the disastrously low years of 1995 and 1996) is used as Oklahoma's contribution to the overall U.S. wheat yield trend. Soft Red Winter Yield growth in most SRW states appears to be well represented by a very long time trend of almost half a century. For example, yields in Ohio and Indiana have gained about 0.7 bushel per acre per year since 1949. Illinois yield growth has been 0.6 bushel, while Missouri's gain has been 0.5 bushel. A much larger portion of the yield variation is explained by time in these states, ranging from 63 percent in Illinois to 82 percent in Ohio. This suggests that the yields are influenced to a lesser extent by other factors like weather, although this may be less true in recent years. Spring Wheat Spring wheat yields (i.e., non-durum) in North Dakota have increased about 0.2 bushel per acre per year, using a 30-year trend. Durum yield growth in North Dakota in the last 30 years has been much slower, just 0.04 bushel per acre. Prior to 1968, yield gains were much higher in both classes. The relationship between yield and time is weak in both cases, with time explaining only 7 percent of the yield variation for hard red spring and only 3 percent for durum. Low and variable rainfall likely explains a larger portion of the yield variations. White Wheat Yield growth of white wheat in the Pacific Northwest is the strongest and most observable of all the wheat classes. Similar to soft red winter states, yield growth in the Pacific Northwest is well represented by a trend since 1949. Over this period, state average yields have increased 1.1 bushels per acre per year in Idaho, 0.9 bushel in Oregon, and 0.7 bushel in Washington. Moreover, the relationship with time is very strong, with 93 percent of the yield variation explained by time in Idaho, 87 percent in Oregon, and 78 percent in Washington. Results Indicate Stronger Trend Yields Based on aggregating the individual state yield trends, the total U.S. wheat yield trend is 0.2-0.3 bushel per acre per year. This is sharply higher than 15-year national trend of 0.02 bushel, and compares with the 20-year national trend of 0.2 bushel. References Dalrymple, D.G., "Changes in Wheat Varieties and Yields in the United States, 1919-1984," Agricultural History, Volume 62, number 4, 1988, pp 20-36. *************************************************************************** Information Contacts: Dennis A. Shields (domestic) dshields@econ.ag.gov (202) 694-5311 James N. Barnes (domestic) jbarnes@econ.ag.gov (202) 694-5291 Edward W. Allen (international) ewallen@econ.ag.gov (202) 694-5288 Copies available at: World Wide Web Site www.econ.ag.gov ERS Autofax system (202)694-5700 Document Number 12105 The next WHEAT OUTLOOK will be released January 14, 1998. Because of resource constraints, ERS will publish only 6 issues of this report in 1998 (January, April, May, July, August, and October). We will continue to publish the Wheat Yearbook, which will be released on March 5, 1998. This will include both sector data and analysis of critical issues and topics. Check the ERS web site (http://www.econ.ag.gov) for the full schedule and for other publications relating to wheat. If you have questions or comments about this change in our schedule, please contact Joy Harwood, Chief, Field Crops Branch (202 694-5310; jharwood@econ.ag.gov) or Fred Surls, Outlook Program Coordinator (202) 694-5320; fsurls@econ.ag.gov). The 1997 Wheat Yearbook is available from: 1) ERS AutoFAX. Call(202)694-5700 and select document 12100 for a complete directory of the historical tables and special articles. 2) ERS homepage: http://www.econ.ag.gov/, select Products and Services, then Publications, Field Crops, and Wheat. *************************************************************************** Table 1--Wheat: U.S. market year supply and disappearance Item | 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97E 1997/98P -------------------|------------------------------------------------------- Area (mil. ac.) | ARP (%) | 5.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N.A. N.A. Nat'l total base | 89.6 89.6 88.9 88.5 87.9 77.3 CRP base retired | 10.6 10.8 10.8 10.8 10.6 10.1 Eff.base/ctr.acres| 78.9 78.4 78.1 77.7 76.7 76.7 0,50/92/85 | 4.0 5.7 5.2 6.1 N.A. N.A. Planted | 72.2 72.2 70.3 69.1 75.6 71.0 Harvested | 62.8 62.7 61.8 60.9 62.9 63.6 Yield (bu/ac) | 39.3 38.2 37.6 35.8 36.3 39.7 | Supply (mil. bu.) | Beg. Stocks | 475.0 530.7 568.5 506.6 376.0 443.6 Production | 2,466.8 2,396.4 2,321.0 2,182.6 2,281.8 2,526.6 Imports 1/ | 70.0 108.8 91.9 67.9 92.0 90.0 TOTAL | 3,011.8 3,035.9 2,981.4 2,757.1 2,749.8 3,060.2 | Use | Food | 834.8 871.7 852.9 883.0 892.0 910.0 Seed | 99.1 96.3 89.2 104.1 103.0 100.0 Feed & Residual | 193.6 271.7 344.4 151.9 310.0 325.0 Exports 1/ | 1,353.6 1,227.8 1,188.3 1,241.1 1,001.0 1,075.0 TOTAL | 2,481.2 2,467.4 2,474.8 2,381.1 2,306.0 2,410.0 | Ending stocks | 530.7 568.5 506.6 376.0 444.0 650.2 Farmer-owned | reserve | 28.0 6.0 0.0 0.0 N.A. 0.0 CCC inventory 2/ | 150.0 150.0 142.0 118.0 93.0 93.0 Free stocks | 352.7 412.5 364.6 258.0 351.2 557.2 Stocks-to-use | 21.4 23.0 20.5 15.8 19.3 27.0 | Prices ($/bu.) | Season average | 3.24 3.26 3.45 4.55 4.30 3.40-3.70 Target price | 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 N.A. N.A. Loan rate | 2.21 2.45 2.58 2.58 2.58 2.58 Contract rate 3/ | 0.81 1.03 0.61 0 0.874 0.631 | Contract pmts. | (mil. dollars)3/ | 1,371 1,900 1,146 100 1,976 1,426 Market value | of production | (mil. dollars) | 7,984 7,812 8,007 9,931 9,826 8,969 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Totals may not add due to rounding. E--Estimated, P--Projected, N.A.--not applicable. 1/ Imports and exports include flour and other products expressed in wheat equivalent. 2/ Includes Food Security Reserve. 3/ Deficiency payment rate prior to 1996/97. Table 2--Wheat supply and disappearance by class 1/ 1996/97E | HRW HRS SRW White Durum All wheat ------------------|-------------------------------------------------- Area: (mil. ac.) | Planted | 35.8 19.1 11.8 5.3 3.6 75.6 Harvested | 25.7 18.8 9.7 5.2 3.5 62.9 Yield (bu/ac) | 29.6 33.6 43.5 68.9 32.6 36.3 Supply: (mil. bu.)| Production | 762 631 422 355 116 2,285 Beg. stocks | 154 106 35 55 26 376 Imports | .3 53 0 15 24 92 TOTAL | 916 790 457 425 164 2,753 | Use: | Total domestic | 486 324 272 129 97 1,308 Food | 320 260 150 85 76 891 Seed | 38 32 19 7 7 103 Feed and residual| 127 32 103 37 14 314 | Exports 2/ | 286 300 140 237 38 1,001 TOTAL | 774 620 412 366 134 2,306 | Ending stocks | 143 166 45 59 31 444 | | 1997/98P | HRW HRS SRW White Durum All wheat ------------------|-------------------------------------------------- Area: (mil. ac.) | Planted | 34.2 18.5 10.0 5.0 3.3 71.0 Harvested | 28.9 17.8 8.9 4.8 3.1 63.6 Yield (bu/ac) | 38.7 28.1 54.4 69.9 27.7 39.7 Supply: (mil. bu.)| Production | 1,121 501 484 335 86 2,527 Beg. stocks | 143 166 45 59 31 444 Imports 2/ | 1 49 0 10 30 90 TOTAL | 1,265 716 529 404 147 3,060 Use: | Total domestic | 584 287 270 112 82 1,335 Exports 2/ | 385 230 195 225 40 1,075 TOTAL | 969 517 465 337 122 2,410 | Ending stocks | 296 199 64 67 25 650 --------------------------------------------------------------------- Totals may not add due to rounding. E--Estimated, P--Projected. 1/ ERS estimates of area, yield, and domestic use. 2/ Imports and exports include flour and other products expressed in wheat equivalent. Table 3--Wheat: Quarterly supply and disappearance (1,000 bu.) ----------|---------------------------------------------------------------- Market |Produc- Ending Year | tion Imports Supply Food Seed Feed Exports stocks | 1/ 1/ ----------|---------------------------------------------------------------- 1995/96 | Jun-Aug | 2,183 23 2,712 215 8 305 303 1,881 Sep-Nov | 0 16 1,897 232 65 (99) 361 1,338 Dec-Feb | 0 12 1,350 216 3 13 294 823 Mar-May | 0 17 841 220 28 (67) 283 376 Mkt. year| 2,183 68 2,757 883 104 152 1,241 376 1996/97E | Jun-Aug | 2,285 15 2,676 224 9 385 334 1,724 Sep-Nov | 0 21 1,745 234 60 (76) 308 1,219 Dec-Feb | 0 27 1,246 214 2 29 179 822 Mar-May | 0 30 852 220 32 (24) 180 444 Mkt. year| 2,285 92 2,753 892 103 314 1,001 444 1997/98P Jun-Aug | 2,526 23 2,992 228 3.2 401 288 2,073 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Totals may not add due to rounding. E--Estimated, P--Projected. 1/ Imports and exports include flour and selected products expressed in wheat equivalent. Table 4--Wheat: Food disappearance, 1997 (1,000 bu.) | May June July August September October --------------|------------------------------------------------------------ Mill grind +| 72,425 72,245 75,570 75,561 78,350 82,715 Food exports -| 2,233 1,858 2,977 1,841 3,322 Food imports +| 1,807 1,558 1,602 1,746 1,526 Non-flour | food use +| 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 Food use | 73,998 73,946 76,195 77,465 78,553 ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Census. Wheat flour and products converted to wheat grain equivalent. Non-flour food use is ERS estimate. Table 5--Wheat: Farm prices and prices at selected markets ($/bu.) |----------------------- Farm Prices --------------------------- | All wheat Winter wheat Durum Other spring Month | 96/97 97/98 96/97 97/98 96/97 97/98 96/97 97/98 ------|----------------------------------------------------------------- Jun | 5.25 3.52 | 5.14 3.42 | 5.58 4.21 | 5.48 3.74 Jul | 4.73 3.23 | 4.67 3.16 | 5.13 4.61 | 5.30 3.66 Aug | 4.57 3.56 | 4.52 3.39 | 5.03 5.23 | 4.63 3.75 Sep | 4.37 3.67 | 4.28 3.47 | 4.67 5.35 | 4.41 3.64 Oct | 4.17 3.55 | 4.07 3.42 | 4.78 5.09 | 4.23 3.49 Nov 1/| 4.10 3.54 | 4.04 3.32 | 4.48 5.15 | 4.07 3.52 Dec | 4.06 | 4.04 | 4.59 | 4.01 Jan | 4.02 | 4.02 | 4.47 | 3.95 Feb | 3.89 | 3.90 | 4.31 | 3.80 Mar | 3.93 | 3.98 | 4.32 | 3.83 Apr | 4.10 | 4.14 | 4.40 | 4.04 May | 4.08 | 4.14 | 4.50 | 3.94 KC HRW #1 KC HRW #1 St. Louis Portland ordinary 13% prot. #2 SRW #1 soft white Month | 96/97 97/98 96/97 97/98 96/97 97/98 96/97 97/98 ------|----------------------------------------------------------------- Jun | 6.12 4.08 | 6.20 4.19| 4.84 3.46| 5.55 4.20 Jul | 5.34 3.57 | 5.35 3.80| 4.72 3.34| 4.96 3.85 Aug | 5.01 3.84 | 5.04 4.11| 4.62 3.64| 5.02 4.10 Sep | 4.70 3.86 | 4.71 4.07| 4.38 3.62| 4.79 4.12 Oct | 4.76 3.88 | 4.75 4.09| 4.02 3.58| 4.28 3.98 Nov | 4.78 3.87 | 4.78 4.09| 3.85 3.57| 4.10 3.88 Dec | 4.70 | 4.72 | 3.90 | 4.06 Jan | 4.61 | 4.63 | 3.78 | 4.10 Feb | 4.52 | 4.57 | 3.55 | 4.13 Mar | 4.58 | 4.67 | 3.71 | 4.25 Apr | 4.78 | 4.85 | 3.99 | 4.54 May | 4.61 | 4.76 | 3.80 | 4.70 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Minn. Minn. FOB Gulf Average EEP DNS 14% #1 durum $/ton (HRW) bonus $/ton 2/ Month | 96/97 97/98 96/97 97/98 96/97 97/98 96/97 97/98 ------|----------------------------------------------------------------- Jun | 6.73 4.44 | 6.57 5.38 | 227 148 | 0.00 0.00 Jul | 6.04 4.36 | 6.18 5.93 | 203 140 | 0.00 0.00 Aug | 5.29 4.49 | 5.77 6.39 | 192 152 | 0.00 0.00 Sep | 4.63 4.36 | 5.47 6.69 | 179 150 | 0.00 0.00 Oct | 4.69 4.35 | 5.41 6.52 | 178 153 | 0.00 0.00 Nov | 4.64 4.42 | 5.56 6.38 | 176 150 | 0.00 0.00 Dec | 4.51 | 5.57 | 176 | 0.00 Jan | 4.62 | 5.42 | 176 | 0.00 Feb | 4.45 | 5.25 | 172 | 0.00 Mar | 4.62 | 5.18 | 177 | 0.00 Apr | 4.78 | 5.35 | 183 | 0.00 May | 4.58 | 5.38 | 173 | 0.00 Source: NASS & AMS, USDA. 1/ Mid-month for 1997/98. 2/ Weighted avg., all classes. Table 6--Wheat: Exports and imports U.S. wheat exports, 1997 (1,000 bu.) | April May June July August September --------------|----------------------------------------------------------- Wheat grain | 69,821 47,640 65,654 92,465 123,141 119,029 Wheat flour | 1,253 2,086 1,731 2,849 1,621 3,101 Products | 166 192 207 180 265 221 Total | 71,240 49,917 67,592 95,494 125,028 122,352 U.S. wheat imports, 1997 (1,000 bu.) | April May June July August September --------------|------------------------------------------------------------ Wheat grain | 6,587 8,963 6,623 5,217 5,887 4,333 Wheat flour | 453 447 467 517 498 493 Products | 1,570 1,361 1,095 1,163 1,248 1,033 Total | 8,610 10,772 8,184 6,897 7,633 5,859 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Census. Wheat flour and products converted to wheat grain equivalent. Table 7--Wheat: U.S. exports, Census and Export Sales comparison --------------------------------------------------------------------------- | 1995/96 | 1996/97 | 1997/98 (as of 12/04/97) --------------------------------------------------------------------------- | |Ship- |Outstanding| Total | Shipments |ments | sales | -------------|------------------------------------------------------------- | | Export | | Export | Export | Census| Sales | Census | Sales | Sales -------------|------------------------------------------------------------- Country | --1,000 metric tons-- Algeria | 444 452| 350 | 350 | 146 0 146 China | 3,057 2,979| 1,003 | 1,065 | 188 112 300 Egypt | 5,069 5,072| 2,684 | 2,825 | 3,056 532 3,588 FSU | 929 651| 408 | 288 | 167 25 192 Japan | 3,094 3,468| 3,325 | 3,264 | 1,624 380 2,004 S. Korea | 1,413 1,406| 1,544 | 1,646 | 776 284 1,060 Morocco | 674 693| 443 | 421 | 531 0 530 Nigeria | 820 880| 590 | 698 | 447 87 534 Pakistan | 1,652 1,672| 2,027 | 1,973 | 1,436 525 1,951 Philippines | 1,856 2,059| 1,772 | 1,876 | 944 189 1,133 Total grain |32,823 32,778| 26,516 | 25,964 | 15,943 4,057 20,000 | | | | Total(incl) | | | | products)1/ |35,842 33,055| 27,254 | 26,127 | 16,016 4,083 20,099 USDA forecast| of Census | | | | 29,257 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Grain equivalent basis. END_OF_FILE