WHEAT OUTLOOK January 14, 1998 January 1998, WHS-0198 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- WHEAT OUTLOOK is issued six times a year by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. Electronic release only; no printed copies available. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- HIGHLIGHTS --1998/99 Winter Wheat Acreage Unexpectedly Down 4 Percent --Modest Changes in 1997/98 Balance Sheet Forecasts--HRW Tightens Up --China's Record 1997 Wheat Crop Revised Up (Again) --Special Article--Examining Domestic Demand for U.S. Wheat The first indication of winter wheat plantings for 1998/99 is much lower than expected, which has lifted price prospects for new-crop wheat. The news is pulling up old-crop prices as well, but U.S. farm and futures prices could remain sluggish in the coming months in the absence of fresh export demand. December 1 stocks are higher than the market expected, which means continued pressure on cash and near-term futures prices as carryout stocks remain large compared with recent years. U.S. wheat futures prices gradually declined during much of December with lackluster export demand and favorable growing conditions for the new crop. Moreover, traders in both Argentina and Canada have been aggressively selling wheat. The average farm price has followed suit, sinking to $3.40 per bushel, down a dime from November and the lowest since July. The season-average farm price is now forecast at $3.40 - $3.50 per bushel, down 20 cents on the high side, and compares with $4.30 in 1996/97. Despite the year-over-year decline, the average farm price is strong relative to the current stock level. For example, ending stocks were more than 100 million bushels lower in 1992/93 and 1993/94, but prices averaged only about $3.25 per bushel. 1998/99 Winter Wheat Acreage Unexpectedly Down 4 Percent Planted winter wheat area for 1998/99 is estimated at 46.6 million acres, the lowest since 1973. HRW and white area are each down 5 percent, while SRW is up 2 percent. Most market observers expected increases across the board, based on good planting conditions this past fall and relatively attractive new-crop prices. Apparently, farmers pulled back from planting more wheat to make room for other crops, possibly soybeans and feed grains in the central Plains, or to increase the amount left fallow. Poor weather prevented some planting in Montana, but these acres may be planted with spring wheat or barley in April/May. Virtually all HRW states have planted less wheat, with Oklahoma unchanged. Area in Kansas is down 700,000 acres from last year and the lowest since 1988. Plantings are particularly low in Montana and Nebraska. Heavy winterkill the last 2 years in South Dakota has reportedly reduced incentives to plant winter wheat. Crop conditions are generally favorable across the Plains, with emergence spotty in Montana. About 77 percent of the crop in Kansas is rated good or excellent. Lack of snow cover is a concern is some areas. Declines in white winter wheat are similar to HRW. Idaho's area is the lowest in almost 25 years, and Washington and Oregon are also down. Planting started later than normal in Washington because moisture was needed. However, since mid-September, conditions have been very favorable and excellent stands have been reported. Oregon wheat is in mostly good condition with adequate soil moisture. A number of soft red winter states are registering gains in planted acreage, meeting market expectations. Many SRW farmers had a successful harvest in 1997 after suffering through several disease-plagued seasons. Crop conditions are generally good in the Midwest, but dry conditions slowed germination in some areas. Area is down in a number of southeastern states due to poor planting conditions and late soybean harvests. Modest Changes in 1997/98 Balance Sheet Forecasts--HRW Tightens Up Food use by class for 1997/98 has been adjusted to better reflect price spreads and industry estimates of current use. Higher hard red winter and soft red winter use is offset by lower hard red spring use. The 1997/98 total remains unchanged. A two-part special article in this report examines the growth in food use and a method of forecasting it. December 1 wheat stocks were 1.61 billion bushels, up nearly one-third from a year earlier and the largest since 1990/91. The higher-than-expected stocks indicate there was less feed and residual in the first six months, so the annual feed and residual forecast has been reduced 25 million bushels to 300 million. Lower winter wheat plantings resulted in a 4-million bushel drop in seed use. Together, these changes translate into a 29-million-bushel gain in ending stocks for 1997/98. Total U.S. exports remained unchanged this month. However, 10 million bushels were shifted from white to HRW. Season-to-date white shipments have been relatively strong, but it is doubtful the pace can continue. The major net result of these changes is a tightening of the HRW balance sheet and a loosening of the HRS. Tighter HRW old-crop supplies, in addition to the low 1998 plantings forecast, are likely to put upward pressure on HRW prices. 1997/98 World Wheat Production and Stocks Boosted by Revisions for China and Australia China's 1997/98 wheat production was revised up 3 million tons to 124 million, taking into account the higher preliminary 1997 total grain production announced by China's main statistical agency. This eclipses the previous year's record by 12 percent, as growing conditions were exceptionally favorable for wheat, including dryness at harvest. This month's production increase is expected to have little effect on 1997/98 demand. China's wheat consumption in 1997/98 is forecast unchanged this month at 114 million tons, up 1 million from the previous year and in line with trend growth. The government has purchased a large portion of the crop, and is expected to increase its stocks dramatically. Australia's 1997/98 wheat production forecast increased 1 million tons this month to 19 million tons, based on preliminary harvest results. Although timely rains limited production losses despite below normal precipitation, production remains down almost 20 percent from last year's record. Exports forecast for 1997/98 (July/June) increased 0.5 million tons, as some of the current crop is expected to be shipped after July 1. World wheat trade in 1997/98 is projected down slightly this month as import forecasts for Iraq and Iran were reduced because of the slow pace of shipments. Increased exports for Australia and Kazakstan were more than offset by reductions for Ukraine, Argentina, and the European Union, as the export pace in these countries has failed to match previous expectations. The financial/economic crisis in Southeast Asia has had little or no effect on wheat trade projections for 1997/98 because in the short run, demand for staple foods like wheat is not very price sensitive. Special Article--Examining Domestic Demand for U.S. Wheat Part I: Behind the Growth in U.S. Wheat Demand by Dennis A. Shields The three major components of U.S. wheat demand--food, export, and feed and residual--interact with the wheat supply to determine market prices. Total domestic food use tends to be unaffected by price changes, while exports and feed use can fluctuate wildly in response to sharp changes in prices. The availability of substitutes (foreign supplies in the case of export demand and corn in the case of feed demand) largely explains the difference. Relatively rapid growth in domestic food use since the early 1980s has resulted in a large, more reliable demand base for the U.S. wheat industry. Consequently, relatively strong food use continues to underpin total demand and support wheat prices. But exports and feed use also remain significant sources of demand for U.S. wheat (43 percent and 13 percent of total use in 1996/97). Seed use is a very small component of total use, and reflects the area of wheat planted for the next season. Domestic Food Use Trends Upward Increasing population boosts the wheat consumption base, but other factors are also important. The mix of foods people eat depends upon consumer preferences, relative prices of other foods, and income levels. For most of the 20th century, per capita wheat-based food consumption declined--consumers purchased more expensive foods such as meat as incomes rose. In addition, total per capita calorie intake declined as machines reduced physical work requirements (Meinken). Per capita consumption of flour, including semolina, declined from more than 200 pounds in the early 1900s to 110 pounds in the early 1970s. By the mid-1970s, the declining trend in per capita consumption reversed due to growing health concerns and greater consumer awareness of the dietary benefits of fiber, bran, and whole grains. The medical community has long encouraged reduced fat consumption and increased intake of the complex carbohydrates found in grain products (Harwood, et al.). Greater grain consumption particularly benefits those involved in the production of wheat products, as wheat flour accounts for about three-quarters of total U.S. grain intake. Per capita flour consumption increased throughout the 1980s and 1990s, reaching 148 pounds in 1996. Another factor affecting increased consumption is an expanded product choice. Many manufacturers have introduced or expanded production of wheat-based products (e.g., variety bread, bagels, and pita bread) in response to consumers' increasing desire for greater food variety in recent years. Wheat-based foods also benefit from larger population numbers in older age brackets because per capita spending for cereal and bakery products increases with the age of the householder. In 1992, householders aged 25-34 spent $140 per person per year on average for these products. In contrast, householders aged 35-44 years, 45-54 years, and 55-64 years spent 10 percent more, 24 percent more and 43 percent more, than did 25-34 year olds. (Putnam and Allshouse). What's the Impact of Rising Domestic Food Use? Domestic food use growth has accelerated during the last two decades, averaging 876 million bushels during 1994/95-1996/97, up from 524 million in 1970/71-1972/73 (when per capita consumption was at an all-time low). This 67-percent gain compares with a 9 percent gain during the previous two decades. In contrast, exports advanced just 34 percent since the early 1970s, feed use advanced 23 percent, and seed use advanced 55 percent. Most of the export gain occurred in the 1970s and early 1980s as world demand expanded rapidly. U.S. exports peaked in 1981 at 1,771 million bushels. Since then, exports have fluctuated under the influence of international supply and demand conditions and government policies. With no apparent upward trend in exports (as well as in feed and seed use), food use as a share of the total rose from 23 percent in 1981/82 to 39 percent in 1996/97. While overall domestic food use has grown, demand has grown faster for white wheat and durum than for the other classes of wheat. From the mid-1970s to the mid-1990s, food use of white wheat and durum rose 112 percent and 125 percent, while hard red winter increased 43 percent, hard red spring climbed 55 percent, and soft red winter increased 50 percent. These trends reflect growing consumption of pasta products and the increasing availability of white wheat. The growing base of domestic food use bodes well for the wheat industry as a whole. First, the gains in domestic consumption have coincided with stable to declining wheat supplies in the 1990s. This has contributed to lower stocks and higher prices, which raise farm income. The increase in volume of grain milled increases milling capacity utilization, which lowers costs, and presents profit opportunities for wheat merchandisers and processors. Steady gains in demand also contribute to stable prices when supply changes are minimal, in turn reducing price risk for both grain growers and users. Another implication is that supply shocks may result in more year-to-year price movement as the domestic food share of total use rises. Ignoring any changes in other market factors, a sudden drop in production from a late spring freeze, for example, may lead to a slightly sharper price rise than under a similar event just 10 years ago. This is due to the nature of wheat demand--food use is less responsive to price changes (i.e., demand is more inelastic) than exports and feed use. However, foreign demand and supply conditions in any particular year could swamp this effect. Growth in domestic food use is expected to continue at least at the pace of population gains. Per capita consumption appears to have slowed from the large gains in the 1980s. Interest in low fat, healthy diets is expected to continue, which will continue to stimulate demand for grain-based foods. References Harwood, J., M. Leath, W. Heid. "The U.S. Milling and Baking Industries." AER No. 611. Economic Research Service, USDA. December 1989. Putnam, Judith, and J. Allshouse. "Food Consumption, Prices, and Expenditures, 1996: Annual Data, 1970-94." Statistical Bulletin No. 928. Economic Research Service, USDA. April 1996. Meinken, Kenneth W., "The Demand and Price Structure for Wheat" Technical Bulletin No. 1136. Agricultural Marketing Service, USDA. November 1955. Part II--Estimating U.S. Food Use of Wheat by James N. Barnes In 1990/91, U.S. food use captured 58 percent of domestic disappearance. By the year 2000, U.S. food use will account for 76 percent of domestic disappearance (USDA Baseline Projections, February 1997). As food use becomes a larger share of U.S. domestic disappearance, estimating its magnitude becomes more important for forecasting total demand. Also, as more companies introduce a wider variety of grain-based products into the market, it becomes more important to be able to estimate food use by class of wheat to accurately measure disappearance. Because food use is a relatively stable component of domestic disappearance, a better estimation of the total domestic disappearance may be possible. This article will briefly describe a method of estimating the demand for U.S. food use (by class and total) and highlights the results. The subject will be examined in greater detail in the March 1998 Wheat Yearbook. To estimate the demand for wheat food use, both in aggregate and by class, demand systems are estimated using linear regression equations. For the aggregate model, the quantity for food use is best explained using nominal income levels, population, and the season-average farm price of wheat. As expected, total food use is extremely inelastic, which is to say the quantity demanded is not price responsive. The estimated own-price elasticity is -0.02. The by-class demand systems are estimated using the same method, but substitute prices of other classes are also included. For example, the quantity demanded for hard red winter (HRW) is estimated using the HRW price, the price of hard red spring (HRS), population, and nominal income levels. Using the HRS price allows for comparing how substitutable HRS is for HRW by evaluating the cross-price elasticity of HRS. Demand systems are estimated for five classes of wheat (HRW, HRS, SRW, white and durum). The most elastic market (observed by evaluating own-price elasticities) of the five is HRW, as expected. However, the food use demand for HRW is still considered inelastic because the own-price elasticity, estimated at -0.79, is less than 1 (see table A). If the price of HRW increased by 10 percent, the quantity demanded for HRW food use is expected to decline just 7.9 percent. As for substitutability for HRW, HRS appears to be more substitutable than SRW with a cross-price elasticity of +0.56. When there is a shortfall in HRW production, some HRS can be substituted as long as protein specifications are met. SRW is not as substitutable as HRS because of the protein needs associated with HRW's end uses (primarily for bread flour, which requires more protein than SRW can provide). One comparison also worth noting is that HRS is more than twice as substitutable for HRW than HRW is for HRS (the cross-price elasticities are +0.56 versus +0.22). Most HRS demand requires protein levels that are higher than HRW can provide. Table A--U.S. wheat food use estimated elasticities* ________________________________________________________________________ HRW HRS SRW White Durum ____________________________________________________________ HRW -0.796 0.217 HRS 0.559 -0.527 0.098 SRW 0.314 -.012 White -0.036 Durum 0.011 -0.309 ________________________________________________________________________ *Elasticities are derived from regression coefficients. Since each demand model was estimated using the log-log form, the regression coefficients are the elasticities(measuring percent change in quantity demanded for a given change in own price). *************************************************************************** * Information Contacts: * Dennis A. Shields (domestic) dshields@econ.ag.gov (202) 694-5311 * James N. Barnes (domestic) jbarnes@econ.ag.gov (202) 694-5291 * Edward W. Allen (international) ewallen@econ.ag.gov (202) 694-5288 * Copies available at: * World Wide Web Site www.econ.ag.gov * ERS Autofax system (202)694-5700 Document No. 12105 * The next issue of Wheat Outlook will be released April 10, 1998. * The Wheat Yearbook will be released in February 1998. Because of resource * constraints, ERS will publish only 6 issues of this report in 1998 *(January, April, May, July, August, and October). * The 1997 Wheat Yearbook is available at: * 1) Call ERS autofax at (202)694-5700 and select document 12100 for a * complete directory of the historical tables and special articles. * 2) ERS homepage: www.econ.ag.gov/, select Products and Services, then * Publications, Field Crops, and Wheat. *************************************************************************** Table 1--Wheat: U.S. market year supply and disappearance Item | 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97E 1997/98P -------------------|------------------------------------------------------- Area (mil. ac.) | ARP (%) | 5.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N.A. N.A. Nat'l total base | 89.6 89.6 88.9 88.5 87.9 77.3 CRP base retired | 10.6 10.8 10.8 10.8 10.6 10.1 Eff.base/ctr.acres| 78.9 78.4 78.1 77.7 76.7 76.7 0,50/92/85 | 4.0 5.7 5.2 6.1 N.A. N.A. Planted | 72.2 72.2 70.3 69.1 75.6 71.0 Harvested | 62.8 62.7 61.8 60.9 62.9 63.6 Yield (bu/ac) | 39.3 38.2 37.6 35.8 36.3 39.7 | Supply (mil. bu.) | Beg. Stocks | 475.0 530.7 568.5 506.6 376.0 443.6 Production | 2,466.8 2,396.4 2,321.0 2,182.6 2,285.1 2,526.6 Imports 1/ | 70.0 108.8 91.9 67.9 92.3 90.0 TOTAL | 3,011.8 3,035.9 2,981.4 2,757.1 2,753.5 3,060.2 | Use | Food | 834.8 871.7 852.9 883.0 892.0 910.0 Seed | 99.1 96.3 89.2 104.1 103.0 96.0 Feed & Residual | 193.6 271.7 344.4 151.9 313.8 300.0 Exports 1/ | 1,353.6 1,227.8 1,188.3 1,241.1 1,001.0 1,075.0 TOTAL | 2,481.2 2,467.4 2,474.8 2,381.1 2,309.9 2,381.0 | Ending stocks | 530.7 568.5 506.6 376.0 443.6 679.2 Farmer-owned | reserve | 28.0 6.0 0.0 0.0 N.A. 0.0 CCC inventory 2/ | 150.0 150.0 142.0 118.0 93.0 93.0 Free stocks | 352.7 412.5 364.6 258.0 350.6 586.2 Stocks-to-use | 21.4 23.0 20.5 15.8 19.2 28.5 | Prices ($/bu.) | Season average | 3.24 3.26 3.45 4.55 4.30 3.40-3.50 Target price | 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 N.A. N.A. Loan rate | 2.21 2.45 2.58 2.58 2.58 2.58 Contract rate 3/ | 0.81 1.03 0.61 0 0.874 0.631 | Contract pmts. | (mil. dollars)3/ | 1,371 1,900 1,146 100 1,976 1,426 Market value | of production | (mil. dollars) | 7,984 7,812 8,007 9,931 9,826 8,717 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Totals may not add due to rounding. E--Estimated, P--Projected, N.A.--not applicable. 1/ Imports and exports include flour and other products expressed in wheat equivalent. 2/ Includes Food Security Reserve. 3/ Deficiency payment rate prior to 1996/97. Table 2--Wheat supply and disappearance by class 1/ 1996/97E | HRW HRS SRW White Durum All wheat ------------------|-------------------------------------------------- Area: (mil. ac.) | Planted | 35.8 19.1 11.8 5.3 3.6 75.6 Harvested | 25.7 18.8 9.7 5.2 3.5 62.9 Yield (bu/ac) | 29.6 33.6 43.5 68.9 32.6 36.3 Supply: (mil. bu.)| Production | 761 631 422 355 116 2,285 Beg. stocks | 154 106 35 55 26 376 Imports | .3 53 0 15 24 92 TOTAL | 915 790 457 425 166 2,753 | Use: | Total domestic | 486 324 272 129 97 1,308 Food | 320 260 150 85 76 892 Seed | 38 32 19 7 7 103 Feed and residual| 127 32 103 37 14 314 | Exports 2/ | 286 300 140 237 38 1,001 TOTAL | 772 624 412 366 135 2,309 | Ending stocks | 143 166 45 59 31 444 | | 1997/98P | HRW HRS SRW White Durum All wheat ------------------|-------------------------------------------------- Area: (mil. ac.) | Planted | 34.2 18.5 10.0 5.0 3.3 71.0 Harvested | 28.9 17.8 8.9 4.8 3.1 63.6 Yield (bu/ac) | 38.7 28.1 54.4 69.9 27.7 39.7 Supply: (mil. bu.)| Production | 1,121 501 484 335 86 2,527 Beg. stocks | 143 166 45 59 31 444 Imports 2/ | 1 49 0 10 30 90 TOTAL | 1,265 716 529 404 147 3,060 Use: | Total domestic | 600 253 264 107 82 1,306 Exports 2/ | 395 230 195 215 40 1,075 TOTAL | 995 483 459 322 122 2,381 | Ending stocks | 269 233 69 82 25 679 --------------------------------------------------------------------- Totals may not add due to rounding. E--Estimated, P--Projected. 1/ ERS estimates of area, yield, and domestic use. 2/ Imports and exports include flour and other products expressed in wheat equivalent. Table 3--Wheat: Quarterly supply and disappearance (1,000 bu.) ----------|---------------------------------------------------------------- Market |Produc- Ending Year | tion Imports Supply Food Seed Feed Exports stocks | 1/ 1/ ----------|---------------------------------------------------------------- 1995/96 | Jun-Aug | 2,183 23 2,712 215 8 305 303 1,881 Sep-Nov | 0 16 1,897 232 65 (99) 361 1,338 Dec-Feb | 0 12 1,350 216 3 13 294 823 Mar-May | 0 17 841 220 28 (67) 283 376 Mkt. year| 2,183 68 2,757 883 104 152 1,241 376 1996/97E | Jun-Aug | 2,285 15 2,676 224 9 385 334 1,724 Sep-Nov | 0 21 1,745 234 60 (76) 308 1,219 Dec-Feb | 0 27 1,246 214 2 29 179 822 Mar-May | 0 30 852 220 32 (24) 180 444 Mkt. year| 2,285 92 2,753 892 103 314 1,001 444 1997/98P Jun-Aug | 2,527 23 2,993 228 3 398 288 2,076 Sep-Nov | 0 22 2,098 237 58 (107) 295 1,615 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Totals may not add due to rounding. E--Estimated, P--Projected. 1/ Imports and exports include flour and selected products expressed in wheat equivalent. Table 4--Wheat: Food disappearance (1,000 bu.) 1997 | June July August September October November --------------|------------------------------------------------------------ Mill grind +| 72,245 75,570 75,561 78,350 82,715 75,309 Food exports -| 1,858 2,977 1,841 3,322 2,823 Food imports +| 1,558 1,602 1,746 1,526 1,909 Non-flour | food use +| 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 Food use | 73,946 76,195 77,465 78,553 83,801 ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Census. Wheat flour and products converted to wheat grain equivalent. Non-flour food use is ERS estimate. Table 5--Wheat: Farm prices and prices at selected markets ($/bu.) --------------------- Farm Prices ---------------------- All wheat Winter wheat Durum Other spring Month | 96/97 97/98 96/97 97/98 96/97 97/98 96/97 97/98 ------|----------------------------------------------------------------- Jun | 5.25 3.52 | 5.14 3.42 | 5.58 4.21 | 5.48 3.74 Jul | 4.73 3.23 | 4.67 3.16 | 5.13 4.61 | 5.30 3.66 Aug | 4.57 3.56 | 4.52 3.39 | 5.03 5.23 | 4.63 3.75 Sep | 4.37 3.67 | 4.28 3.47 | 4.67 5.35 | 4.41 3.64 Oct | 4.17 3.55 | 4.07 3.42 | 4.78 5.09 | 4.23 3.49 Nov | 4.10 3.50 | 4.04 3.31 | 4.48 5.25 | 4.07 3.55 Dec 1/| 4.06 3.40 | 4.04 3.25 | 4.59 5.00 | 4.01 3.45 Jan | 4.02 | 4.02 | 4.47 | 3.95 Feb | 3.89 | 3.90 | 4.31 | 3.80 Mar | 3.93 | 3.98 | 4.32 | 3.83 Apr | 4.10 | 4.14 | 4.40 | 4.04 May | 4.08 | 4.14 | 4.50 | 3.94 KC HRW #1 KC HRW #1 St. Louis Portland ordinary 13% prot. #2 SRW #1 soft white Month | 96/97 97/98 96/97 97/98 96/97 97/98 96/97 97/98 ------|----------------------------------------------------------------- Jun | 6.12 4.08 | 6.20 4.19| 4.84 3.46| 5.55 4.20 Jul | 5.34 3.57 | 5.35 3.80| 4.72 3.34| 4.96 3.85 Aug | 5.01 3.84 | 5.04 4.11| 4.62 3.64| 5.02 4.10 Sep | 4.70 3.86 | 4.71 4.07| 4.38 3.62| 4.79 4.12 Oct | 4.76 3.88 | 4.75 4.09| 4.02 3.58| 4.28 3.98 Nov | 4.78 3.87 | 4.78 4.09| 3.85 3.57| 4.10 3.88 Dec | 4.70 3.72 | 4.72 4.01| 3.90 3.53| 4.06 3.79 Jan | 4.61 | 4.63 | 3.78 | 4.10 Feb | 4.52 | 4.57 | 3.55 | 4.13 Mar | 4.58 | 4.67 | 3.71 | 4.25 Apr | 4.78 | 4.85 | 3.99 | 4.54 May | 4.61 | 4.76 | 3.80 | 4.70 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Minn. Minn. FOB Gulf Average EEP DNS 14% #1 durum $/ton (HRW) bonus $/ton 2/ Month | 96/97 97/98 96/97 97/98 96/97 97/98 96/97 97/98 ------|----------------------------------------------------------------- Jun | 6.73 4.44 | 6.57 5.38 | 227 148 | 0.00 0.00 Jul | 6.04 4.36 | 6.18 5.93 | 203 140 | 0.00 0.00 Aug | 5.29 4.49 | 5.77 6.39 | 192 152 | 0.00 0.00 Sep | 4.63 4.36 | 5.47 6.69 | 179 150 | 0.00 0.00 Oct | 4.69 4.35 | 5.41 6.52 | 178 153 | 0.00 0.00 Nov | 4.64 4.42 | 5.56 6.38 | 176 150 | 0.00 0.00 Dec | 4.51 4.27 | 5.57 6.55 | 176 145 | 0.00 0.00 Jan | 4.62 | 5.42 | 176 | 0.00 Feb | 4.45 | 5.25 | 172 | 0.00 Mar | 4.62 | 5.18 | 177 | 0.00 Apr | 4.78 | 5.35 | 183 | 0.00 May | 4.58 | 5.38 | 173 | 0.00 Source: NASS & AMS, USDA. 1/ Mid-month for 1997/98. 2/ Weighted avg., all classes. Table 6--Wheat: Exports and imports U.S. wheat exports, (1,000 bu.) 1997 | May June July August September October --------------|------------------------------------------------------------ Wheat grain | 47,640 65,654 92,465 123,141 119,029 89,331 Wheat flour | 2,086 1,731 2,849 1,621 3,101 2,518 Products | 192 207 180 265 221 329 Total | 49,917 67,592 95,494 125,028 122,352 92,178 U.S. wheat imports, (1,000 bu.) 1997 | May June July August September October --------------|------------------------------------------------------------ Wheat grain | 8,963 6,623 5,217 5,887 4,333 6,348 Wheat flour | 447 467 517 498 493 548 Products | 1,361 1,095 1,163 1,248 1,033 1,361 Total | 10,772 8,184 6,897 7,633 5,859 8,257 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Census. Wheat flour and products converted to wheat grain equivalent. Table 7--Wheat: U.S. exports, Census and Export Sales comparison --------------------------------------------------------------------------- | 1995/96 | 1996/97 | 1997/98 (as of 1/01/98) --------------------------------------------------------------------------- | |Ship- |Outstanding| Total | Shipments |ments | sales | -------------|------------------------------------------------------------- Data| | Export | | Export | Export Source | Census| Sales | Census | Sales | Sales -------------|------------------------------------------------------------- Country | --1,000 metric tons-- Algeria | 444 452| 350 | 350 | 146 0 146 China | 3,057 2,979| 1,003 | 1,065 | 307 11 318 Egypt | 5,069 5,072| 2,684 | 2,825 | 3,445 920 4,365 FSU | 929 651| 408 | 288 | 167 0 167 Japan | 3,094 3,468| 3,325 | 3,264 | 1,865 333 2,198 S. Korea | 1,413 1,406| 1,544 | 1,646 | 845 229 1,074 Morocco | 674 693| 443 | 421 | 531 0 531 Nigeria | 820 880| 590 | 698 | 512 80 591 Pakistan | 1,652 1,672| 2,027 | 1,973 | 1,784 450 2,234 Philippines | 1,856 2,059| 1,772 | 1,876 | 1,017 162 1,178 Total grain |32,823 32,778| 26,516 | 25,964 | 17,883 4,064 21,946 Total(incl) | | | | products)1/ |35,842 33,055| 27,254 | 26,127 | 17,960 4,091 22,050 USDA forecast| of Census | | | | 29,257 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Grain equivalent basis. END_OF_FILE