WHEAT OUTLOOK May 14, 1998 May 1998, WHS-0498 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board --------------------------------------------------------------------------- WHEAT OUTLOOK is issued six times a year by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. Electronic release only; no printed copies available. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- NOTICE: This release replaces the May 13, 1998, release of WHEAT OUTLOOK. Please note that Table 2 has been revised. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Highlights --U.S. Wheat Production Off in 1998/99 --Current Crop Conditions Point to Good Yield Potential in 1998 --The 1998/99 Balance Sheet Leaves Ending Stocks Unchanged, Prices Weaker --U.S. Exports Projected Up Over 9 Percent in 1998/99 --Foreign Production Expected To Decline, Consumption To Increase in 1998/99 --The Marketing Assistance Loan Program The outlook for U.S. wheat in 1998/99 is for a smaller crop, increased use, little change in ending stocks, and lower prices. U.S. production is projected down 7 percent in 1998/99 because of lower area and yield, but U.S. supplies are up 5 percent because of larger carryin stocks. Domestic use is projected up 60 million bushels because of higher feed and residual use, and exports are up 90 million, leaving ending stocks largely unchanged from the forecast carryin level. The projected farm price range is $3.05 to $3.45 a bushel in 1998/99, compared to $3.40 estimated for 1997/98. U.S. ending stocks for 1997/98 are up 40 million bushels from last month because of a reduction of 25 million bushels in feed and residual use and a 15-million-bushel in decline in export prospects. U.S. Wheat Production Off in 1998/99 Winter Wheat--USDA forecasts 1998 U.S. winter wheat production at 1.71 billion bushels, down 7 percent from 1997 but above the 1993-97 average of 1.67 billion. This production forecast was reported in USDA's May 12 Crop Production report. The smaller output reflects lower harvested acreage and a lower yield in 1998. Harvested area totals 40.7 million acres, down 3 percent from 1997. Based on conditions as of May 1, the U.S. winter wheat yield is forecast at 41.9 bushels per acre. This is down 3.1 bushels from last year's record but remains the second highest on record. All Wheat--Total U.S. wheat production is projected to total 2.36 billion bushels in 1998, down about 6 percent from 1997 but slightly above the 1993-97 average of 2.34 billion. This includes the winter wheat forecast plus a projected spring wheat crop (including durum) of 650 million bushels. The projected spring wheat output is based on farmers' planting intentions reported in USDA's March 31 Prospective Plantings report. Harvested acres and yield for spring wheat (including durum) are projected using 1993-97 average harvest-to-planted ratios and yields by State. Current Crop Conditions Point to Good Yield Potential in 1998 Favorable spring weather has pushed crop development slightly ahead of average. An average of 38 percent of the crop was headed as of May 10, compared to the 5-year average of 34 percent. The hard red winter (HRW) crop survived the winter well, but precipitation is needed in several areas in the central and southern Plains to reach it's full yield potential. Forecast head counts from Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas are reported to be slightly higher than a year ago, and Texas numbers are record high. In Kansas, the largest wheat producing State, the crop is projected to total 377 million bushels, down from 506 million a year earlier. Forecast harvested acres are down 7 percent while the forecast yield of 37 bushels per acre is down 8 bushels from 1997. As of May 10, 78 percent of the Kansas crop was rated good to excellent. The Kansas outturn will depend upon timely precipitation as the crop moves closer to harvest. Dry conditions in western Texas and western areas of the central Plains growing area may cause problems as the crop matures. Excessive moisture in the soft red winter (SRW) region continues to be a concern because of the potential for disease problems if current weather patterns persist. The white winter (WW) wheat crop in the Pacific Northwest appears strong, with high crop ratings and favorable conditions. As of May 1, yield projections were close to those achieved last year. As of May 10, 81 percent of the spring wheat crop was seeded, compared to 31 percent in 1997 and well above the average of 45 percent. Emergence was also ahead of schedule at 47 percent, compared to 15 percent a year ago and an average of 15 percent. All classes of winter wheat are forecast down from last year with HRW showing the largest decline. HRW production is projected to total 990 million bushels in 1998, down 12 percent from 1997 but slightly above the 1990-97 average of 976 million bushels. Production of SRW is projected at 461 million bushels, down from 483 million in 1997, but, except for last year, this would be the largest crop since 1990. WW wheat production is projected to total 255 million bushels this year, the lowest since 1992 and 8 percent below last year. The 1998/99 Balance Sheet Leaves Ending Stocks Unchanged, Prices Weaker With higher beginning stocks (73 percent higher than a year ago) and steady year-over-year imports, the U.S. wheat supply in 1998/99 is forecast to rise 5 percent to 3.21 billion bushels, the highest level since 1990/91. The current balance sheet indicates that production and imports will be adequate to satisfy domestic use and export projections during 1998/99. Consequently, projected carryover stocks are virtually unchanged from this season at 766 million bushels. Demand is projected to be fairly strong, with higher domestic food use and feed and residual use. Domestic feed and residual use is expected to increase to 300 million bushels as larger supplies are expected to keep pressure on wheat prices and make wheat feeding fairly attractive this summer. Exports in 1998/99 are expected to rise about 9 percent from the disappointing 1997/98 total. Sluggish demand will produce basically an unchanged world trade, but reduced competition, especially from Canada is expected to increase U.S. exports to 1,125 million bushels, up from a projected 1,035 million in 1997/98. In 1997/98, prices were strong early in the season and then weakened throughout the marketing year. For 1998/99, a more usual price pattern is expected with prices reaching their seasonal low during harvest and increasing as the marketing season progresses. The average price received by farmers is projected to range from $3.05 to $3.45 per bushel. The midpoint of $3.25 per bushel is down from the $3.40 per bushel estimated for 1997/98, and it is lower than the $3.49 average for crop years 1990/91 through 1996/97. The price outcome for 1998/99 will depend on the pace of exports as well as weather developments between now and harvest. Exports will be affected greatly by how crops around the world turn out. The size of the crops produced by major competing exporters are dominant factors in this year's forecast. U.S. Exports Forecast Up in 1998/99 U.S. exports are projected to reach 31 million tons in 1998/99, up 3 million tons from the previous year. The increase is expected to stem from increased market share, as world trade is projected to increase only slightly. Most of the increase in U.S. share is expected to come from Canada, as competition from the EU will increase. July-June exports by Australia, Argentina, and most smaller exporters are forecast to decline, but not by much. In Canada wheat production is forecast down slightly in 1998/99 because low wheat prices are causing reduced planted area. Yields are projected to return to trend, an increase from the previous year. Even with production nearly unchanged, Canada's wheat supplies will be down significantly because of sharply reduced beginning stocks. Exports are forecast down sharply, at 16.5 million tons. During the 1990's Canada's exports have only dipped this low once before. Australia is projected to maintain wheat production in 1998/99 at the same level as the previous year, but exports are forecast down slightly. Despite reduced production in Argentina, forecast exports are down only 0.5 million tons for the July-June trade year because of spillover sales from the large 1997/98 crop. The European Union is forecast to increase wheat production more than 5 million tons, as favorable growing conditions boost yields, especially in France, England, and Germany. The EU is forecast to increase exports by 2 million tons and boost wheat feed use by a similar amount to avoid building stocks. Wheat production is forecast down sharply in Eastern Europe, but large carryin stocks will limit the reduction in exports. World Wheat Production Forecast Down Less Than 2 Percent in 1998/99 World production is projected to reach 597 million tons in 1998/99, down 14 million from the previous year's record. World wheat area is forecast down 1.3 percent because reduced wheat price prospects contributed to lower planted area in some major growing regions. However, growing conditions for winter wheat have been generally favorable across much of the Northern Hemisphere. Foreign wheat production is forecast to decline 9 million tons. Global wheat consumption in 1998/99 is expected to increase 2.4 percent, somewhat faster than the rate of population growth. The financial crisis in Southeast Asia is not expected to have a large effect on wheat consumption, partly because the region's largest staple is rice, and also because of trade credits provided by exporters and some government intervention to limit price increases to consumers. Food demand based on population growth is boosting consumption in most parts of the world, and feed demand is expected to expand in Europe. World wheat stocks are projected to decline less than 2 percent in 1998/99, following a dramatic 24-percent increase the previous year. This leaves large, but slightly declining wheat stocks in most regions except China where stocks are expected to increase. The region expected to have the largest year-over-year drop in wheat production is the former Soviet Union (FSU), down 7 million tons. Production is expected down sharply in Russia and Ukraine, as the unusually favorable growing conditions (until rain during harvest) for last year's crop have not been repeated. Spring wheat area in Kazakstan is expected to decline as marginal areas continue to be removed from production. Because of reduced animal numbers in the FSU, demand for wheat for feed is expected to remain low. Consumption, trade, and stocks in the region are expected to be little changed in 1998/99, and remain roughly in balance. China's 1998/99 production is expected to decline 6 million tons to 118 million. Area is expected to be down marginally due to high support prices. Growing conditions have been generally favorable, but not as good as those that led to record yields a year ago. Dryness during planting and emergence of winter wheat have been a problem in some regions. A return to trend yields is expected, producing China's second largest crop. Production is forecast to remain above consumption, and China's large stocks are expected to get larger. Imports are projected to be maintained at a minimal 2 million tons as a limited supply of quality wheat is imported. Wheat production in Latin America in 1998/99 is forecast down almost 4 million tons mostly because of an expected decline in Argentina. With lower wheat prices and delays harvesting the soybean crop, less wheat is expected to be planted. Consumption in Latin America is expected to grow 3 percent after unusually slow growth in 1997/98. Increased demand is expected to boost imports 10 percent. Production in South Asia is forecast down slightly, with reduced production in India offsetting an increase in Pakistan. Consumption is expected to continue to grow, and lower imports are forecast. In the Middle East wheat production is forecast up 3 million tons as unusually good rains boost production prospects in 1998/99. Consumption is also expected to grow and remain significantly larger than production, providing the base for increased imports. In North Africa wheat production in 1998/99 is expected to increase more than 25 percent, rebounding from drought the previous year. However, the crop was reduced by dryness during critical growing periods in some regions and production will remain much below 1996/97. Consumption is expected to grow slowly and imports are forecast down. The Marketing Assistance Loan Program The U.S. wheat season-average farm price is expected to decline for the third consective year in 1998/99 as ending stocks continue to build. Producers are expected to place larger amounts of their wheat production under loan. To receive a marketing assistance loan for wheat, a producer must have signed a production flexibility contract with USDA. All wheat produced on the farm covered by the contract is eligible for loan placement. The loan rate for wheat was capped at the 1995 level of $2.58 per bushel. Other features of the marketing assistance loan program are similar to the previous commodity loan programs. The Secretary may use discretionary authority to lower the wheat marketing assistance loan rate if the projected stocks-to-use ratio exceeds predetermined levels. Marketing assistance loans are nonrecourse loans and may be redeemed at the lower of (a) the applicable county loan rate plus accrued interest and other charges or (b) the marketing loan repayment rate (i.e., posted county price, PCP). If the PCP is lower than the county loan rate, a marketing loan gain is realized. Producers are eligible to receive a loan deficiency payment if they agree not to place the commodity under loan. The loan deficiency payment rate is equal to the amount by which the county loan rate exceeds the posted county price in the county in which the grain is stored. With normal seasonal pricing patterns, seasonal low prices during the 1998/99 wheat marketing year are unlikely to generate significant marketing loan payments based on the projected price range of $3.05 to $3.45. For additional information on marketing assistance loan programs, visit the Farm Service Agency's Internet site at http://www.fsa.usda.gov/pas/backgndrs.htm or contact your local USDA Farm Service Agency office. Information Contacts: Mack N. Leath(domestic) (202) 694-5302 Edward W. Allen (international)(202) 694-5288 Electronic copies available at: World Wide Web Site www.econ.ag.gov ERS Autofax system (202) 694-5700 Document Number 12105 The next electronic Wheat Outlook report will be issued on July 13, 1998 The 1998 Wheat Yearbook is now available at: 1) ERS Autofax; Call (202) 694-5700 and select document 12100 for a complete directory of the historical tables and special articles. 2) ERS Homepage: www.econ.ag.gov/, select "Products and Services," then "Publications," "Field Crops," and "Wheat." Other wheat publications may be obtained from the ERS "Wheat Briefing Room" at http://www.econ.ag.gov/Briefing/wheat. Table 1--Wheat: U.S. market year supply and disappearance, 05/12/98 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Item | 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98E 1998/99P ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Area (mil. ac.) | Nat'l. total base | 89.6 88.9 88.5 87.9 N.A. N.A. Eff. base/ctr.acres| 78.4 78.1 77.7 77.3 77.3 78.4 ARP (%) | 0.0 0.0 0.0 N.A. N.A. N.A. 0,50/92/85 | 5.7 5.2 6.1 N.A. N.A. N.A. CRP base retired | 10.8 10.8 10.8 10.6 10.1 9.7 Planted | 72.2 70.3 69.1 75.6 71.0 67.0 Harvested | 62.7 61.8 60.9 62.9 63.6 59.9 | Yield (bu/ac) | 38.2 37.6 35.8 36.3 39.7 40.1 | Supply (mil. bu.) | Beg. Stocks | 530.7 568.5 506.6 376.0 443.6 765.7 Production | 2,396.4 2,321.0 2,182.6 2,285.1 2,526.6 2,355.7 Imports 1/ | 108.8 91.9 67.9 92.3 90.0 90.0 TOTAL | 3,035.9 2,981.4 2,757.1 2,753.5 3,060.2 3,211.4 | Use | Food | 871.7 853.0 882.9 891.5 915.0 925.0 Seed | 96.3 89.2 104.1 103.1 94.5 95.0 Feed & Residual | 271.7 344.4 153.0 313.9 250.0 300.0 Exports 1/ | 1,227.8 1,188.3 1,241.1 1,001.4 1,035.0 1,125.0 TOTAL | 2,467.4 2,474.8 2,381.1 2,309.9 2,334.5 2,445.0 | Ending stocks | 568.5 506.6 376.0 443.6 765.7 766.4 Farmer-owned | reserve | 6.0 0.0 0.0 N.A. N.A. N.A. CCC inventory 2/ | 150.0 142.0 118.0 93.0 93.0 93.0 Free stocks | 412.5 364.6 258.0 350.6 672.7 677.7 Stocks-to-use ratio | 23.0 20.5 15.8 19.2 33.4 31.3 | Prices ($/bu.) | Target price | 4.00 4.00 4.00 N.A. N.A. N.A. Loan rate | 2.45 2.58 2.58 2.58 2.58 2.58 Contract rate 3/ | 1.03 0.61 0.00 0.87 0.63 N.A. Ave. farm price | 3.26 3.45 4.55 4.30 3.40 --- Proj. range | --- --- --- --- --- 3.05-3.45 | Contract pmts. | (mil. dollars)3/ | 1,904 1,146 100 1,976 1,426 N.A. | Market value | of production | (mil. dollars) | 7,812 8,007 9,787 9,815 8,590 7,680 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Source: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, WAOB, USDA. Totals may not add due to rounding. E--Estimated, P--Projected, N.A.--not applicable. 1/ Imports and exports include flour and other products expressed in wheat equivalent. 2/ Includes Food Security Reserve. 3/ Deficiency payment rate prior to 1996/97. Table 2--Wheat supply and disappearance by class, 05/12/98 1/ ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1996/97E | HRW HRS SRW White Durum All wheat ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Area: | Million acres Planted | 35.8 19.1 11.8 5.3 3.6 75.6 Harvested | 25.7 18.8 9.7 5.2 3.5 62.9 | | Bushels per harvested acre Yield | 29.6 33.6 43.5 68.9 32.6 36.3 | Supply: | Million bushels Production | 761 631 422 355 116 2,285 Beg. stocks | 154 106 35 55 26 376 Imports | -- 53 0 15 24 92 TOTAL | 915 790 457 425 166 2,753 Utilization: | Food | 320 260 150 85 76 892 Seed and industrial | 38 32 19 7 7 103 Feed and residual | 127 32 103 37 14 314 Total domestic use | 486 324 272 129 97 1,308 Exports 2/ | 286 300 140 237 38 1,001 TOTAL | 772 624 412 366 135 2,309 | Ending stocks | 143 166 45 59 31 444 | ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1997/98P | HRW HRS SRW White Durum All wheat ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Area: | Million acres Planted | 34.2 18.5 10.0 5.0 3.3 71.0 Harvested | 28.9 17.8 8.9 4.8 3.1 63.6 | | Bushels per harvested acre Yield | 38.7 28.1 54.4 69.9 27.7 39.7 | Supply: | Million bushels Production | 1,121 501 484 335 86 2,527 Beg. stocks | 143 166 45 59 31 444 Imports 2/ | 1 54 0 9 26 90 TOTAL | 1,265 721 529 403 143 3,061 | Utilization: | Total domestic use | 560 255 269 107 69 1,260 Exports 2/ | 367 235 180 205 48 1,035 TOTAL | 926 490 449 312 117 2,295 | Ending stocks | 338 231 80 91 26 766 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Source: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, WAOB, USDA. Totals may not add due to rounding. E--Estimated, P--Projected. 1/ ERS estimates of area, yield, and domestic use. 2/ Imports and exports include flour and other products expressed in wheat equivalent. Table 3--Wheat: Quarterly supply and disappearance (1,000 bu.), 05/12/98 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Market | Produc- Imports Supply Food Seed Feed Exports Ending Year | tion 1/ 1/ stocks ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1995/96: | Jun-Aug | 2,183 23 2,712 215 8 305 303 1,881 Sep-Nov | 0 16 1,897 232 65 (99) 361 1,338 Dec-Feb | 0 12 1,350 216 3 13 294 823 Mar-May | 0 17 841 220 28 (67) 283 376 Mkt. yr. | 2,183 68 2,757 883 104 152 1,241 376 | 1996/97E: | Jun-Aug | 2,285 15 2,676 224 9 385 334 1,724 Sep-Nov | 0 21 1,745 234 60 (76) 308 1,219 Dec-Feb | 0 27 1,246 214 2 29 179 822 Mar-May | 0 30 852 220 32 (24) 180 444 Mkt. yr. | 2,285 92 2,753 892 103 314 1,001 444 | 1997/98P: | Jun-Aug | 2,526 23 2,993 229 3 396 288 2,076 Sep-Nov | 0 23 2,099 239 58 (114) 296 1,619 Dec-Feb | 0 23 1,643 219 2 1 255 1,166 Mar-May | 0 21 1,187 228 31 (33) 196 766 Mkt. yr. | 2,527 90 3,060 915 94 250 1,035 766 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Totals may not add due to rounding. E--Estimated, P--Projected. 1/ Imports and exports include flour and selected products expressed in wheat equivalent. Table 4--Wheat: Food disappearance (1,000 bu.), 1997/98, 05/12/98 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- | June July August September October November ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Mill grind + | 72,062 76,140 75,591 78,077 82,392 75,058 Food exports - | 1,938 3,028 1,887 3,322 2,847 1,899 Food imports + | 1,558 1,602 1,746 1,526 1,909 1,768 Non-flour | food use + | 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 Food use | 73,682 76,714 77,450 78,281 83,454 76,927 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- | December January February March April May ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Mill grind + | 74,618 ----- 216,916** ----- Food exports - | 3,357 1,608 2,912 Food imports + | 2,188 1,624 1,608 Non-flour | food use + | 2,000 2,000 2,000 Food use | 75,449 N.A. N.A. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Census. Wheat flour and products converted to wheat grain equivalent. Non-flour food use is ERS estimate. Note: Mill grind for Jun.-Dec. 1997 reflect the Bureau of Census' annual revisions. **Beginning in 1998, only quarterly mill grind estimates are available from the Bureau of Census. Table 5--Wheat: Farm prices and prices at selected markets ($/bu.), 05/12/98 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- | ---------------------- Farm prices ------------------------- | All wheat | Winter | Durum | Other spring Month | 96/97 97/98 | 96/97 97/98 | 96/97 97/98 | 96/97 97/98 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Jun | 5.25 3.52 | 5.14 3.42 | 5.58 4.21 | 5.48 3.74 Jul | 4.73 3.23 | 4.67 3.16 | 5.13 4.61 | 5.30 3.66 Aug | 4.57 3.56 | 4.52 3.39 | 5.03 5.23 | 4.63 3.75 Sep | 4.37 3.67 | 4.28 3.47 | 4.67 5.35 | 4.41 3.64 Oct | 4.17 3.55 | 4.07 3.42 | 4.78 5.09 | 4.23 3.49 Nov | 4.10 3.50 | 4.04 3.31 | 4.48 5.25 | 4.07 3.55 Dec | 4.06 3.45 | 4.04 3.25 | 4.59 5.17 | 4.01 3.51 Jan | 4.02 3.33 | 4.02 3.16 | 4.47 5.02 | 3.95 3.45 Feb | 3.89 3.27 | 3.90 3.16 | 4.31 4.71 | 3.80 3.34 Mar | 3.93 3.32 | 3.98 3.15 | 4.32 4.68 | 3.83 3.42 Apr 1/| 4.10 3.23 | 4.14 2.95 | 4.40 4.31 | 4.04 3.41 May | 4.08 | 4.14 | 4.50 | 3.94 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- | KC HRW #1 | KC HRW #1 | St. Louis | Portland | ordinary | 13% prot. | #2 SRW | #1 soft white Month | 96/97 97/98 | 96/97 97/98 | 96/97 97/98 | 96/97 97/98 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Jun | 6.12 4.08 | 6.20 4.19 | 4.84 3.46 | 5.55 4.20 Jul | 5.34 3.57 | 5.35 3.80 | 4.72 3.34 | 4.96 3.85 Aug | 5.01 3.84 | 5.04 4.11 | 4.62 3.64 | 5.02 4.10 Sep | 4.70 3.86 | 4.71 4.07 | 4.38 3.62 | 4.79 4.12 Oct | 4.76 3.88 | 4.75 4.09 | 4.02 3.58 | 4.28 3.98 Nov | 4.78 3.87 | 4.78 4.09 | 3.85 3.57 | 4.10 3.88 Dec | 4.70 3.72 | 4.72 4.01 | 3.90 3.53 | 4.06 3.79 Jan | 4.61 3.61 | 4.63 3.80 | 3.78 3.87 | 4.10 3.67 Feb | 4.52 3.64 | 4.57 3.86 | 3.55 3.32 | 4.13 3.58 Mar | 4.58 3.61 | 4.67 3.94 | 3.71 3.24 | 4.25 3.56 Apr | 4.78 N.A. | 4.85 N.A. | 3.99 N.A. | 4.54 N.A. May | 4.61 | 4.76 | 3.80 | 4.70 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- | Mlps. | Mlps. | FOB Gulf | Average EEP | DNS 14% | #1 durum | $/ton (HRW) | bonus $/ton 2/ Month | 96/97 97/98 | 96/97 97/98 | 96/97 97/98 | 96/97 97/98 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Jun | 6.73 4.44 | 6.57 5.38 | 227 148 | 0.00 0.00 Jul | 6.04 4.36 | 6.18 5.93 | 203 140 | 0.00 0.00 Aug | 5.29 4.49 | 5.77 6.39 | 192 152 | 0.00 0.00 Sep | 4.63 4.36 | 5.47 6.69 | 179 150 | 0.00 0.00 Oct | 4.69 4.35 | 5.41 6.52 | 178 153 | 0.00 0.00 Nov | 4.64 4.42 | 5.56 6.38 | 176 150 | 0.00 0.00 Dec | 4.51 4.27 | 5.57 6.55 | 176 145 | 0.00 0.00 Jan | 4.62 4.12 | 5.42 5.60 | 176 139 | 0.00 0.00 Feb | 4.45 4.15 | 5.25 5.64 | 172 140 | 0.00 0.00 Mar | 4.62 4.26 | 5.18 5.81 | 177 139 | 0.00 0.00 Apr | 4.78 N.A. | 5.35 N.A. | 183 130 | 0.00 May | 4.58 | 5.38 | 173 | 0.00 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Source: NASS & AMS, USDA. 1/ Mid-month for current month 1997/98 mktg. year. 2/ Weighted average, all classes. Table 6--Wheat: Exports and imports, 05/12/98 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- U.S. wheat exports, (1,000 bu.) 1997/98 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Item |September October November December January February ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Wheat grain | 119,029 89,331 79,528 80,906 97,090 68,972 Wheat flour | 3,101 2,518 1,631 3,118 1,403 2,723 Products | 221 329 269 240 205 188 Total | 122,352 92,178 81,427 84,264 98.698 71,883 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- U.S. wheat imports, (1,000 bu.) 1997/98 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Item |September October November December January February --------------|-------------------------------------------------------------- Wheat grain | 4,333 6,348 6,893 6,638 5,145 6,534 Wheat flour | 493 548 476 536 510 447 Products | 1,033 1,361 1,292 1,680 1,114 1,163 Total | 5,859 8,257 8,661 8,854 6,709 8,144 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Census. Wheat flour and products converted to wheat grain equivalent. Table 7--Wheat: U.S. exports, Census and Export Sales comparison, 05/07/98 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- | 1995/96 | 1996/97 | 1997/98 (as of 4/30/98) |--------------------------------------------------------------- | |Ship- |Outstanding| Total | Shipments |ments | sales | ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Data | | Export | | Export | Export Source | Census | Sales | Census | Sales | Sales ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Country: | --1,000 metric tons-- Algeria | 444 452 | 350 | 350 | 146 0 146 China | 3,057 2,979 | 1,003 | 1,065 | 352 0 352 Egypt | 5,069 5,072 | 2,684 | 2,825 | 4,794 130 4,924 FSU | 929 651 | 408 | 288 | 275 0 275 Japan | 3,094 3,468 | 3,325 | 3,264 | 3,091 406 3,496 S. Korea | 1,413 1,406 | 1,544 | 1,646 | 1,310 217 1,527 Morocco | 674 693 | 443 | 421 | 597 0 597 Nigeria | 820 880 | 590 | 698 | 735 83 818 Pakistan | 1,652 1,672 | 2,027 | 1,973 | 2,232 0 2,232 Philippines | 1,856 2,059 | 1,772 | 1,876 | 1,410 147 1,557 Total grain |32,823 32,778 | 26,516 | 25,964 | 25,681 2,218 27,898 Total(incl) | | | | products)1/ |35,842 33,055 | 27,254 | 26,127 | 25,777 2,239 28,016 USDA forecast| | | | of Census | | | | 28,168 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Source: U.S. Export Sales, FAS, USDA. 1/ Grain equivalent basis. END_OF_FILE