WHEAT OUTLOOK July 13, 1998 July 1998, WHS-0598 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board --------------------------------------------------------------------------- WHEAT OUTLOOK is issued six times a year by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. Electronic release only; no printed copies available. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Highlights -- U.S. Wheat Production Revised Up as Yield Is Projected To Reach New Record -- Prices To Remain Under Pressure as Harvest Progresses -- Domestic Use on the Rise -- U.S. 1998/99 Wheat Export Forecast Down 1 Million Tons this Month -- Large World Carryover Stocks Dampen Price Prospects for 1998/99 ----------------------------------------------------------------- U.S. Wheat Production Revised Up . . . Again U.S. winter wheat production prospects for 1998 have improved dramatically since the first forecast in May because of record yields in the U.S. hard red winter wheat (HRW) belt. Total U.S. production is projected at 2,522 million bushels, down only 4 million bushels from 1997. The record yield projection of 42.6 bushels per acre is offsetting the substantial decline in planted and harvested acreage. With larger beginning stocks and steady year-over-year imports, the U.S. wheat supply in 1998/99 is forecast to rise 9 percent to 3,336 million bushels, the largest since 1987/88. Prices To Remain Under Pressure as Harvest Progresses Wheat prices have been under significant pressure for the last 2 years due to large crops and relatively weak demand. Stocks have rebounded rapidly from the record low of 376 million bushels on June 1, 1996. The large supplies will keep pressuring cash and futures prices as the harvest progresses rapidly. U.S. exports in 1998/99 are expected to be about the same as the previous year as competition in the world market will continue to be keen because of large world supplies. As a result, the U.S. season average farm price may not break $3.00 for the first time since 1990/91. The average price received by farmers for wheat in 1998/99 is forecast between $2.70 and $3.10 per bushel, down from $3.40 in 1997/98 and $4.30 in 1996/97. Unlike last season when the average price received by farmers peaked in September, monthly-average prices received by farmers are expected to follow a more normal seasonal pattern in 1998/99, hitting seasonal lows during harvest (June through September) then increasing to reflect carrying charges. The preliminary U.S. farm price for all wheat in June 1998 is $2.72 per bushel. In coming months, the wheat price will not only be influenced by the large U.S. and global wheat supplies but also by weather patterns in the Corn Belt States that affect the corn and soybean crops and Northern Plains that affect the durum and other spring wheat crops. Production prospects for spring wheat, as well as for corn and other feed grains, will weigh heavily on the wheat market. Domestic Use on the Rise Domestic feed and residual use is projected to increase to 400 million bushels this season as lower wheat prices make wheat feeding more attractive. Food use and exports will rise modestly but not enough to prevent an increase in ending stocks. The current supply and demand balance dictates that wheat must compete as a feed grain if further increases in ending stocks are to be avoided. Ending stocks are forecast to hit 868 million bushels, the highest since 1990/91. Wheat by Class Hard red winter (HRW) wheat production prospects continued to improve during June, especially in Kansas and Oklahoma. Kansas production is pegged at 495 million bushels in 1998, up 100 million from June. The Kansas yield is projected at 49 bushels per acre, up 10 bushels from June and 3 bushels above last year's record. Yields are also projected to reach record highs in Oklahoma and Texas, with forecasts based on July 1 conditions up 4 bushels and 3 bushels per acre, respectively, from the June forecasts. Total HRW output is forecast at 1,180 million bushels, up about 5 percent from 1997/98. HRW use is projected to total 1,052 million bushels in 1998/99, accounting for about 43 percent of total U.S. wheat use. The winter wheat harvest is well ahead of average. As of July 5, 69 percent of the winter wheat crop was harvested, well above the 5-year average of 50 percent. Kansas was 97 completed by that date, compared to an average of 59 percent. The Kansas Agricultural Statistics Service recently reported that protein is averaging 11.5 percent this year, compared with 11.8 percent last year, and a 10-year average 12.4 percent. Test weights have averaged 61.5 pounds per bushel, compared with 60.6 pounds last year and a 10-year average of 59.8 pounds. Since average protein content of HRW is reportedly below normal, price premiums for high protein wheat will be strong this year. Soft red winter (SRW) wheat production is forecast at 451 million bushels in 1998, down 33 million from last year. Quality is a major concern in the Corn Belt, particularly Southern Illinois and Southern Indiana, where excessive rainfall during the spring will likely lead to scab and vomitoxin problems. These problems will be monitored closely as the new crop comes onto the market. SRW production is forecast to account for about 18 percent of the U.S. wheat crop. Total use is projected at 445 million bushels in 1998/99, also about 18 percent of total wheat use. White winter (WW) wheat production is forecast at 268 million bushels, down 4 percent from 1997 due to fewer acres. Washington, Oregon, Idaho, and Michigan account for most of WW production. WW wheat normally accounts for about 10 percent of U.S. wheat use. Based on July 1 conditions, the "other spring" wheat (i.e., excluding durum) crop is forecast to decline 11 percent in 1998, primarily reflecting a smaller planted and harvested area as farmers either shifted acres to durum wheat, soybeans, and other field crops or fallowed the land. The June 30 Acreage report indicated that planted and harvested acreage of other spring wheat declined about 20 percent from last year. Farmers will harvest about 15 million acres in 1998/99, and production of other spring wheat is forecast to total 498 million bushels. The first survey-based forecast indicates an average yield of 33.5 bushels per acre for other spring wheat. The other spring wheat crop is smaller than expected earlier in the season because of fewer acres harvested. Other spring wheat plantings are estimated at 15.2 million acres, down from the March planting intentions of 16.3 million acres. As of July 5, 69 percent of the spring wheat crop was headed, compared to a 5-year average of 45 percent. According to the June 30 Acreage report, farmers seeded 3.7 million acres to durum wheat, up 14 percent from last year but down 375,000 acres from the March planting intentions. Based on July 1 conditions, production of durum wheat in the United States is forecast to total 126 million bushels, up 46 percent from 1997. This production level, coupled with a sizable expansion of durum acreage in Canada and bigger crops in the EU and North Africa, will reduce the price premium commanded by durum in recent years. U.S. 1998/99 Export Forecast Down 1 Million Tons this Month U.S. 1998/99 exports are projected to reach 29 million tons (July/June), down 1 million from last month because of reduced import demand and ample competing supplies of soft and white wheat. Turkey's expected exports increased 1 million tons this month because of record production prospects, while reduced production prospects shaved projected exports from Argentina by 0.5 million. World wheat trade in 1998/99 is forecast 0.5 million tons lower this month because of lower consumption and imports by Iran and reduced feed wheat imports by South Korea stemming from low corn prices. World wheat production is forecast up slightly this month as larger crops in the U.S., Turkey, and the EU more than offset lower production in Russia. World Wheat Carryover Stocks Dampen Price Prospects for 1998/99 Declining wheat prices helped reduce planted area in 1998/99 and world wheat production is expected to decline. However, the decline in area is partly offset by a forecast record global yield. Larger crops in some major importing countries are expected to reduce global imports. Only a small reduction in global stocks is expected. World wheat supplies in 1998/99 are forecast up because beginning stocks are expected to increase by 22 million tons while production declines by 10 million. Global beginning stocks in 1998/99 are forecast to reach 133 million tons, the largest since 1994/95. Stocks are building because of record world wheat production in 1997/98. Wheat stocks will increase during 1998/99 in most of the world's largest wheat producers, including China, the United States, EU, India, Eastern Europe, and the NIS (New Independent States of the former Soviet Union). Canada is an exception, with sharply lower stocks than a year ago because of smaller production and strong exports. World wheat production in 1998/99 is projected to reach 601 million tons, down only 1.5 percent from the previous year's record despite a 2-percent drop in area. Global area is forecast down 4.7 million hectares, mostly in the NIS, United States, and Canada. The NIS area is expected to drop 2.2 million hectares because of low prices, difficulty marketing last year's crop, and weather-delayed spring wheat planting. In the United States (-1.4 million hectares) and Canada (-0.8 million) wheat area is expected to shift to other crops, especially oilseeds. Argentina, Brazil, and Eastern Europe are also expected to shift area out of wheat and into more profitable crops. However, wheat area is expected to increase in several major producing countries, including the EU, Turkey, and Australia, where recent years' good profits have encouraged expansion. A record average world wheat yield is expected in 1998/99, as generally favorable growing conditions for winter wheat have prevailed across the Northern Hemisphere. Only a few major wheat producers have harvested their 1998/99 wheat crops, so global yield projections are very tentative at this stage. However, most large wheat producing countries are expected to have good yields, and when they are added together, the global average is slightly higher than in 1997/98, when some countries, like China and Argentina, had exceptional yield growth, and others, such as North Africa and Australia, faced weather-driven yield losses. Wheat supplies in 1998/99 are expected to increase in China, the United States, EU, North Africa, Turkey, and Pakistan, while declining in Canada and Argentina. World wheat consumption is expected to be slightly larger than production, reaching 603 million tons, up 15 million from the previous year. Major events around the world, such as the Asian economic crisis, are not expected to create large shifts in human wheat consumption, and lower world wheat prices are unlikely to buy large increases in the use of wheat for food. However, use of wheat as an animal feed is forecast to increase. World Wheat Trade To Shrink Slightly in 1998/99 on Abundant Supplies in Important Importing Countries Several key wheat importing countries are expected to reduce or not increase their imports because of increased domestic supplies and, given low world prices, a reduced sense of urgency to own wheat. China is expected to maintain minimal wheat imports. Even though China's wheat production is forecast down from last year's record, it is still expected to be larger than domestic consumption, adding to already burdensome stocks. Moreover, China has announced that the central government will not pay as much as in the past for provinces to purchase and store wheat. This, and last year's record crop, have driven wheat prices in China as low as corn prices. In India as well, wheat production is down from last year's record, but is larger than earlier expected, and given large government procurement and stocks, imports are expected to drop. Record yields and production are expected to cut import needs in Pakistan, a key market for U.S. white wheat. Production in North Africa is expected to rebound somewhat from devastating drought in 1997/98. With larger production, imports (including durum) are expected to decline. The EU has increased durum area and yield prospects are much improved from last year. Thus, the EU is forecast to reduce imports. Eastern Europe and the NIS are not expected to increase imports despite sharply lower production because stocks are high, domestic demand is weak, and foreign exchange limited. Wheat imports are expected to grow robustly in Latin America and the Middle East and a slight increase is forecast in Southeastern and Eastern Asia, but this growth is more than offset declines in other markets. U.S. Share of World Exports To Increase in 1998/99 Although world wheat trade is expected to decline 2 percent, U.S. wheat exports are forecast up 4 percent to 29 million tons in 1998/99 (July/June). Reduced exports from several competitors are expected to increase U.S. market share compared to the previous 2 years, but the share will remain below most other years. Canada's exports are expected to drop 22 percent because of reduced supplies, especially of high protein bread wheat. This should open opportunities for increased exports of U.S. HRS, and high protein HRW. Argentina is also expected to have reduced supplies in 1998/99, and somewhat lower exports, providing less competition, especially late in the U.S. marketing year. However, the EU is expected to increase wheat exports by 2.0 million metric tons over 1997/98. The EU is expected to provide increased competition throughout the marketing year, especially to those markets seeking the cheapest wheat. ================================================================= Information Contacts: Mack N. Leath (domestic) (202) 694-5302 Edward W. Allen (international) (202) 694-5288 Electronic copies available at: World Wide Web Site www.econ.ag.gov ERS Autofax system (202) 694-5700 Document Number 12105 The next electronic Wheat Outlook report will be issued on July 13, 1998. The 1998 Wheat Yearbook is now available at: 1) ERS Autofax; Call (202) 694-5700 and select document 12100 for a complete directory of the historical tables and special articles. 2) ERS Homepage: www.econ.ag.gov/, select "Products and Services," then "Publications," "Field Crops," and "Wheat." Other wheat publications may be obtained from the ERS "Wheat Briefing Room" at http://www.econ.ag.gov/Briefing/wheat. ================================================================= Table 1--Wheat: U.S. market year supply and disappearance, 07/10/98 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Item | 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98E 1998/99P ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Area (mil. ac.) | Nat'l. total base | 89.6 88.9 88.5 87.9 N.A. N.A. Eff. base/ctr.acres| 78.4 78.1 77.7 77.3 77.3 78.4 0,50/92/85 | 5.7 5.2 6.1 N.A. N.A. N.A. CRP base retired | 10.8 10.8 10.8 10.6 10.1 9.7 Planted | 72.2 70.3 69.1 75.6 71.0 65.8 Harvested | 62.7 61.8 60.9 62.9 63.6 59.2 | Yield (bu/ac) | 38.2 37.6 35.8 36.3 39.7 42.6 | Supply (mil. bu.) | Beg. Stocks | 530.7 568.5 506.6 376.0 443.6 723.3 Production | 2,396.4 2,321.0 2,182.6 2,285.1 2,526.6 2,522.4 Imports 1/ | 108.8 91.9 67.9 92.3 93.0 90.0 TOTAL | 3,035.9 2,981.4 2,757.1 2,753.5 3,063.2 3,335.8 | Use | Food | 871.7 853.0 882.9 891.5 915.0 925.0 Seed | 96.3 89.2 104.1 103.1 92.2 93.0 Feed & Residual | 271.7 344.4 153.0 313.9 292.6 400.0 Exports 1/ | 1,227.8 1,188.3 1,241.1 1,001.4 1,040.0 1,050.0 TOTAL | 2,467.4 2,474.8 2,381.1 2,309.9 2,339.8 2,468.0 | Ending stocks | 568.5 506.6 376.0 443.6 723.3 867.8 Farmer-Owned Res. | 6.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 CCC inventory 2/ | 150.0 142.0 118.0 93.0 94.0 N.A. Free stocks | 412.5 364.6 258.0 350.6 629.3 N.A. Stocks-to-use ratio | 23.0 20.5 15.8 19.2 30.9 35.2 | Prices ($/bu.) | Target price | 4.00 4.00 4.00 N.A. N.A. N.A. Loan rate | 2.45 2.58 2.58 2.58 2.58 2.58 Contract rate 3/ | 1.03 0.61 0.00 0.87 0.63 N.A. Ave. farm price | 3.26 3.45 4.55 4.30 3.40 --- Proj. range | --- --- --- --- --- 2.70-3.10 | Contract pmts. | (mil. dollars)3/ | 1,904 1,146 100 1,976 1,426 N.A. | Market value | of production | (mil. dollars) | 7,812 8,007 9,787 9,815 8,590 7,680 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Source: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, WAOB, USDA. Totals may not add due to rounding. E--Estimated, P--Projected, N.A.--not applicable. 1/ Imports and exports include flour and other products expressed in wheat equivalent. 2/ Includes Food Security Reserve. 3/ Deficiency payment rate prior to 1996/97. Table 2--Wheat supply and disappearance by class, 07/10/98 1/ ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1997/98E | HRW HRS SRW White Durum All wheat ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Area: | Million acres Planted | 34.2 18.5 10.0 5.0 3.3 71.0 Harvested | 28.9 17.8 8.9 4.8 3.1 63.6 | | Bushels per harvested acre Yield | 38.7 28.1 54.4 69.9 27.7 39.7 | Supply: | Million bushels Beg. stocks | 143 166 45 59 31 444 Production | 1,121 501 484 335 86 2,527 Imports 2/ | 1 55 0 8 29 93 TOTAL | 1,265 722 529 402 146 3,063 Utilization: | Total domestic use | 586 265 272 110 67 1,300 Exports 2/ | 371 237 177 202 53 1,040 TOTAL | 957 502 449 312 120 2,340 | Ending stocks | 307 220 80 90 26 723 | ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1998/99 (estimated) | HRW HRS SRW White Durum All wheat ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Area: | Million acres Planted | 32.6 18.5 10.0 4.9 4.1 65.8 Harvested | 27.9 14.1 9.1 4.6 3.6 59.2 | | Bushels per harvested acre Yield | 42.7 32.4 49.8 70.0 35.1 42.6 | Supply: | Million bushels Beg. stocks | 307 220 80 90 26 723 Production | 1,180 445 451 321 126 2,523 Imports 2/ | 1 56 0 10 23 90 TOTAL | 1,488 721 531 421 175 3,336 | Utilization: | Total domestic use | 637 253 290 146 92 1,320 Exports 2/ | 415 260 155 175 45 1,035 TOTAL | 1,052 513 445 322 136 2,295 | Ending stocks | 436 208 86 99 38 868 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Source: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, WAOB, USDA. Totals may not add due to rounding. E--Estimated, P--Projected. 1/ ERS estimates of area, yield, and domestic use. 2/ Imports and exports include flour and other products expressed in wheat equivalent. Table 3--Wheat: Quarterly supply and disappearance (1,000 bu.), 07/10/98 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Market | Produc- Imports Supply Food Seed Feed Exports Ending Year | tion 1/ 1/ stocks ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1995/96: | Jun-Aug | 2,183 23 2,712 215 8 305 303 1,881 Sep-Nov | 0 16 1,897 232 65 (99) 361 1,338 Dec-Feb | 0 12 1,350 216 3 13 294 823 Mar-May | 0 17 841 220 28 (67) 283 376 Mkt. yr. | 2,183 68 2,757 883 104 152 1,241 376 1996/97E: | Jun-Aug | 2,285 15 2,676 224 9 385 334 1,724 Sep-Nov | 0 21 1,745 234 60 (76) 308 1,219 Dec-Feb | 0 27 1,246 214 2 29 179 822 Mar-May | 0 30 852 220 32 (24) 180 444 Mkt. yr. | 2,285 92 2,753 892 103 314 1,001 444 1997/98P: | Jun-Aug | 2,527 23 2,993 229 3 397 288 2,076 Sep-Nov | 0 23 2,099 238 59 (114) 296 1,619 Dec-Feb | 0 24 1,643 221 2 (2) 255 1,166 Mar-May | 0 23 1,190 227 28 11 201 723 Mkt. yr. | 2,527 93 3,063 915 92 292 1,040 723 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Totals may not add due to rounding. E--Estimated, P--Projected. 1/ Imports and exports include flour and selected products expressed in wheat equivalent. Table 4--Wheat: Food disappearance (1,000 bu.), 1997/98, 05/12/98 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- | June July August September October November ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Mill grind + | 72,062 76,140 75,591 78,077 82,392 75,058 Food exports - | 1,858 2,977 1,841 3,322 2,823 1,896 Food imports + | 1,558 1,602 1,746 1,526 1,909 1,768 Non-flour | food use + | 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 Food use | 73,763 76,765 77,495 78,280 83,478 76,929 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- | December January February March April May ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Mill grind + | 74,618 72,837* 70,144* 73,935* N.A. N.A. Food exports - | 3,323 1,569 2,910 1,522 1,410 N.A. Food imports + | 2,188 1,624 1,608 1,943 2,179 N.A. Non-flour | food use + | 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 Food use | 75,483 74,891 70,842 76,356 N.A. N.A. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Census. Wheat flour and products converted to wheat grain equivalent. Non-flour food use is ERS estimate. Note: Mill grind data for 1997 reflect the Bureau of Census' annual revisions. *Estimated from Census' quarterly mill grind using 10-year seasonal pattern for the January-March quarter. N.A. - Not available. Table 5--Wheat: Farm prices and prices at selected markets ($/bu.), 07/10/98 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- | ---------------------- Farm prices ------------------------- | All wheat | Winter | Durum | Other spring Month | 96/97 97/98 | 96/97 97/98 | 96/97 97/98 | 96/97 97/98 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Jun | 5.25 3.52 | 5.14 3.42 | 5.58 4.21 | 5.48 3.74 Jul | 4.73 3.23 | 4.67 3.16 | 5.13 4.61 | 5.30 3.66 Aug | 4.57 3.56 | 4.52 3.39 | 5.03 5.23 | 4.63 3.75 Sep | 4.37 3.67 | 4.28 3.47 | 4.67 5.35 | 4.41 3.64 Oct | 4.17 3.55 | 4.07 3.42 | 4.78 5.09 | 4.23 3.49 Nov | 4.10 3.50 | 4.04 3.31 | 4.48 5.25 | 4.07 3.55 Dec | 4.06 3.45 | 4.04 3.25 | 4.59 5.17 | 4.01 3.51 Jan | 4.02 3.33 | 4.02 3.16 | 4.47 5.02 | 3.95 3.45 Feb | 3.89 3.27 | 3.90 3.16 | 4.31 4.71 | 3.80 3.34 Mar | 3.93 3.32 | 3.98 3.15 | 4.32 4.68 | 3.83 3.42 Apr | 4.10 3.15 | 4.14 2.94 | 4.40 4.45 | 4.04 3.41 May | 4.08 3.06 | 4.14 2.90 | 4.50 4.29 | 3.94 3.31 | KC HRW #1 | KC HRW #1 | St. Louis | Portland | ordinary | 13% prot. | #2 SRW | #1 soft white Month | 96/97 97/98 | 96/97 97/98 | 96/97 97/98 | 96/97 97/98 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Jun | 6.12 4.08 | 6.20 4.19 | 4.84 3.46 | 5.55 4.20 Jul | 5.34 3.57 | 5.35 3.80 | 4.72 3.34 | 4.96 3.85 Aug | 5.01 3.84 | 5.04 4.11 | 4.62 3.64 | 5.02 4.10 Sep | 4.70 3.86 | 4.71 4.07 | 4.38 3.62 | 4.79 4.12 Oct | 4.76 3.88 | 4.75 4.09 | 4.02 3.58 | 4.28 3.98 Nov | 4.78 3.87 | 4.78 4.09 | 3.85 3.57 | 4.10 3.88 Dec | 4.70 3.72 | 4.72 4.01 | 3.90 3.53 | 4.06 3.79 Jan | 4.61 3.61 | 4.63 3.80 | 3.78 3.87 | 4.10 3.67 Feb | 4.52 3.64 | 4.57 3.86 | 3.55 3.32 | 4.13 3.58 Mar | 4.58 3.61 | 4.67 3.94 | 3.71 3.24 | 4.25 3.56 Apr | 4.78 3.39 | 4.85 3.82 | 3.99 3.05 | 4.54 3.34 May | 4.61 3.41 | 4.76 3.75 | 3.80 2.89 | 4.70 3.28 | Mlps. | Mlps. | FOB Gulf | Average EEP | DNS 14% | #1 durum | $/ton (HRW) | bonus $/ton 1/ Month | 96/97 97/98 | 96/97 97/98 | 96/97 97/98 | 96/97 97/98 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Jun | 6.73 4.44 | 6.57 5.38 | 227 148 | 0.00 0.00 Jul | 6.04 4.36 | 6.18 5.93 | 203 140 | 0.00 0.00 Aug | 5.29 4.49 | 5.77 6.39 | 192 152 | 0.00 0.00 Sep | 4.63 4.36 | 5.47 6.69 | 179 150 | 0.00 0.00 Oct | 4.69 4.35 | 5.41 6.52 | 178 153 | 0.00 0.00 Nov | 4.64 4.42 | 5.56 6.38 | 176 150 | 0.00 0.00 Dec | 4.51 4.27 | 5.57 6.55 | 176 145 | 0.00 0.00 Jan | 4.62 4.12 | 5.42 5.60 | 176 139 | 0.00 0.00 Feb | 4.45 4.15 | 5.25 5.64 | 172 140 | 0.00 0.00 Mar | 4.62 4.26 | 5.18 5.81 | 177 139 | 0.00 0.00 Apr | 4.78 4.29 | 5.35 5.63 | 183 130 | 0.00 May | 4.58 4.24 | 5.38 5.15 | 173 129 | 0.00 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Source: NASS & AMS, USDA. 1/ Weighted average, all classes. Table 6--Wheat: Exports and imports, 07/10/98 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- U.S. wheat exports, (1,000 bu.) 1997/98 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Item |November December January February March April ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Wheat grain | 79,528 80,906 97,090 68,972 63,914 64,623 Wheat flour | 1,631 3,118 1,403 2,723 1,280 1,257 Products | 269 240 205 188 336 173 Total | 81,427 84,264 98,698 71,883 65,531 66,053 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- U.S. wheat imports, (1,000 bu.) 1997/98 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Item |November December January February March April --------------|-------------------------------------------------------------- Wheat grain | 6,893 6,638 5,145 6,534 7,171 5,619 Wheat flour | 476 536 510 447 483 572 Products | 1,292 1,680 1,114 1,163 1,461 1,610 Total | 8,661 8,854 6,769 8,144 9,115 7,801 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Census. Wheat flour and products converted to wheat grain equivalent. Table 7--Wheat: U.S. exports, Census and Export Sales comparison, 07/07/98 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- | 1996/97 | 1996/97 | 1997/98 (as of 7/02/98) |--------------------------------------------------------------- | |Ship- |Outstanding| Total | Shipments |ments | sales | ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Data | | Export | Export | Export Source | Census | Sales | Sales | Sales ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Country: | --1,000 metric tons-- Algeria | 350 | 350 | 172 | 75 75 150 China | 1,003 | 1,065 | 380 | 53 0 53 Egypt | 2,684 | 2,825 | 4,982 | 174 385 559 FSU | 408 | 288 | 275 | 0 0 0 Japan | 3,325 | 3,264 | 3,373 | 153 357 509 S. Korea | 1,544 | 1,646 | 1,400 | 112 322 434 Morocco | 443 | 421 | 597 | 0 0 0 Nigeria | 590 | 698 | 817 | 134 223 357 Pakistan | 2,027 | 1,973 | 2,232 | 0 0 0 Philippines | 1,772 | 1,876 | 1,531 | 187 277 464 Total grain | 26,516 | 25,964 | 27,518 | 1,865 3,886 5,751 Total(incl) | | | products)1/ | 27,254 | 26,127 | 27,626 | 1,877 3,924 5,801 USDA forecast| | | of Census | | 28,168 | 28,576 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Source: U.S. Export Sales, FAS, USDA. 1/ Grain equivalent basis. END_OF_FILE