WHEAT OUTLOOK August 13, 1998 August 1998, WHS-0698 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board --------------------------------------------------------------------------- WHEAT OUTLOOK is issued six times a year by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. Electronic release only; no printed copies available. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board WHEAT OUTLOOK is issued electronically six times annually (January, April, May, July, August, and October) beginning in 1998 by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. No printed copies available. Highlights -- Record Wheat Yield in 1998 More Than Offset Lower Plantings -- Prices To Remain Under Pressure -- Weaker Prices Prospects Dampen the Expansion of U.S. Durum Acreage -- U.S. Exports Up Because of USDA's Wheat Purchases and Donations to Countries In Need -- Foreign Production Forecast Down, But World Trade To Remain Sluggish in 1998/99 Record U.S. Wheat Yield in 1998 More Than Offset Lower Plantings U.S. wheat production is revised up for the third straight month to the highest level in 8 years. Weather conditions during the spring and early summer were nearly ideal in many wheat-producing areas. The U.S. wheat yield is forecast at a record 43.0 bushels per acre. With larger beginning stocks, the U.S. wheat supply in 1997/98 is forecast to rise to 3,362 million bushels, up 10 percent from 1997/98. Total U.S. wheat production is forecast at 2,549 million bushels, up 1 percent from 1997 and 26 million bushels above the July forecast. The winter and spring wheat (including durum) crops both registered gains this month. The August 1 forecast is in line with market expectations. A large part of the month-to-month increase in winter wheat is due to higher forecast yields in Colorado, Montana, Nebraska, and South Dakota. Kansas production is unchanged from July. Other spring wheat yield prospects improved in Minnesota and Montana during July. Durum wheat yield in Montana is up 1 bushel from July. U.S. exports are projected up 75 million bushels because of the recent announcement that USDA will purchase wheat and donate it to countries in need. Imports are now forecast at 90 million bushels, compared with 95 million in 1997/98. Ending stocks are forecast to hit 819 million bushels, down 49 million from a month earlier but the highest since 1990/91. Prices To Remain Under Pressure Wheat prices have been under significant pressure due to large crops and relatively weak demand. Stocks have rebounded rapidly from the recent low of 376 million bushels on June 1, 1996. The large wheat and corn supplies will keep pressuring cash and futures prices as the spring wheat harvest progresses. The average price received by farmers is forecast between $2.55 and $2.95 per bushel, down $0.15 on each end of the range from a month earlier and down from $3.38 in 1997/98. The preliminary U.S. farm price for all wheat in July 1998 is $2.57 per bushel, 20 cents below June and the lowest monthly price since July 1991. The farm price of durum wheat dropped 42 cents during the month, as more ample supplies are weighing on the market. Unlike last season when the average price received by farmers peaked in September, monthly average prices received by farmers are expected to follow a more normal seasonal pattern in 1998/99, hitting seasonal lows during harvest (June through September) then increasing to reflect carrying charges. Domestic Use on the Rise Domestic feed and residual use is projected to increase to 400 million bushels this season as lower wheat prices make wheat feeding more attractive. Food use and exports will rise modestly but not enough to prevent an increase in ending stocks. The current supply and demand balance dictates that wheat must compete as a feed grain if further increases in ending stocks are to be avoided. Wheat by Class Hard red winter (HRW) wheat production prospects continued to improve during July. Production of HRW is forecast to total 1,200 million bushels, up 20 million from last month and 79 million higher than in 1997. Kansas production is pegged at 495 million bushels in 1998, up 100 million from June but unchanged from July. The Kansas yield is forecast at 49 bushels per acre, 3 bushels above last year's record. Yields are also forecast to reach record highs in Colorado, Oklahoma, Nebraska, and South Dakota. HRW use is projected to total 1,112 million bushels in 1998/99, accounting for about 44 percent of total U.S. wheat use. Soft red winter (SRW) wheat production is forecast at 449 million bushels in 1998, down 35 million from last year. Downward revisions were also posted for SRW this month, reflecting lower forecast yields in Illinois and Kentucky. White wheat output was also reduced because of a lower yield forecast for white winter wheat in Washington. White winter (WW)wheat production is forecast at 266 million bushels, down 4 percent from 1997 due to fewer acres. Based on August 1 conditions, white spring wheat is forecast at 53 million bushels. Use of white wheat is projected to total 322 million bushels in 1998/99. Hard red spring (HRS) wheat production is forecast to total 456 million bushels in 1998, down 45 million from last year because of lower harvested acreage. However, production is forecast up 10 million bushels from last month. HRS use is projected to total 528 million bushels in 1998/99, about 25 million above last year. Weaker Prices Prospects Dampen the Expansion of U.S. Durum Acreage U.S. producers signaled in early 1998 that they would increase the area seeded to durum wheat to more than 4 million acres in 1998, according to USDA's Prospective Plantings report released on March 31. Tight world durum supplies in 1997/98 led to rising U.S. and world prices for durum, while prices for other types of wheat declined. If planting intentions were fulfilled, durum area would have risen 25 percent from 1997 to the largest acreage since 1982. Statistics Canada reported that Canadian producers also intended to expand acreage by 29 percent in 1998. However, the prospects of larger supplies and lower prices in 1998/99 led U.S. producers to adjust their 1998 cropping plans. USDA's June 30 Acreage report confirmed that durum producers actually seeded only 3.70 million acres to durum this spring. Harvested area is forecast at 3.6 million acres, up 15 percent from last year and the highest since 1989. The larger harvested area and generally favorable growing conditions in the Northern Plains this summer are pointing to a substantially larger U.S. durum crop in 1998. USDA's August 1 forecast indicates that farmers will harvest 126 million bushels in 1998, up 46 percent from last year's weather-reduced crop and the largest since 1982. Durum yields are forecast at 35.2 bushels per acre, up 27 percent from last year and the highest since 1992. Minnesota, Montana, North Dakota, and South Dakota will account for over 91 percent of U.S. durum acreage harvested in 1998. With yields averaging almost 29 bushels per acre, these States will account for about three-fourths of U.S. production. Durum is also grown under irrigation in California and Arizona, where farmers are expected to harvest about 319,000 acres (9 percent of the total in 1998). However the much higher yields of 103 bushels per harvested acre push these States' production to about one-fourth of the U.S. total. Export prospects are further dampened by projections of larger crops in Italy, France, Canada, Syria, and North Africa. World durum production is projected to total about 31 million tons (1.14 billion bushels), up about 26 percent from 1997/98. Canada's output is projected at 6.3 million tons, up 30 percent from last year's production. Production by the three major exporters (Canada, United States, and the European Union)is projected to total 18.4 million tons in 1998, up 5.0 million tons from 1997. The expanded global exportable supplies in 1998/99 are expected to coincide with a downturn in global import needs since many importers are experiencing production increases this year. The weaker import demand will intensify competition among the major exporters. U.S. durum exports are projected at 45 million bushels (grain and products) in 1998/99, down 15 percent from last year. Export sales have started slowly. As of August 13, accumulated export shipments plus outstanding export sales for the 1998/99 marketing year totaled only 12.9 million bushels, 41 percent below last year's pace. Despite the lower export projection, the United States will maintain its status as the world's second most important durum exporter behind Canada. Domestic use of durum is forecast at 92 million bushels in 1998/99, and ending stocks are projected to increase 46 percent from last year. U.S. 1998/99 Exports Forecast Up 75 Million Bushels, Despite Slow Start The U.S. export forecast was raised this month by 75 million bushels, to 1,125 million, because of the recent announcement that USDA will purchase wheat and donate it to countries in need. The United States will follow the "rules of surplus disposal" under the Food and Agriculture Organization of the U.N. These rules provide for consultations with other countries to make sure commercial trade is not disrupted. A list of potential recipients includes: Afghanistan, Albania, Bosnia, Macedonia, Bangladesh, the Caucasus region, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Honduras, Indonesia, Moldova, Mongolia, Nicaragua, Peru, the Sahel region of Africa, southern Sudan, West Africa, and Yemen. To date, the only purchase and announced donation has been 0.5 million tons to Indonesia, and that has been included in the forecast of Indonesia's imports. The remaining 2 million tons of intended U.S. donations are included in global exports, but have not been allocated to specific importers because details have not been finalized. Projected World Wheat Production Down Because of China Global wheat production in 1998/99 is forecast down 3.7 million tons this month because reductions in China and the NIS (former Soviet Union) are only partly offset by increases elsewhere. China's wheat production forecast was reduced 8 million tons to 110 million, based mostly on preliminary harvest data covering mostly winter wheat and barley. Rain just before and during wheat harvest lowered prospects. Production prospects in the former Soviet Union declined by almost 2 million tons mostly because of drought. However, favorable conditions boosted wheat production prospects this month in the European Union (EU), North Africa, and Australia. Although China's wheat production prospects dropped this month, forecast imports were left unchanged. China has large wheat stocks, and is changing the procurement process so that less of the new crop is likely to be purchased by government agencies. As a result, wheat prices in China are expected to remain low despite the smaller crop. The former Soviet Union is also not expected to need to make up production declines with increased imports, because reduced livestock inventories have lowered demand for grain in these countries. Increased production prospects in the EU and Australia contribute directly to competitors' stocks and exports. Information Contacts: Mack N. Leath (domestic) (202) 694-5302 Edward W. Allen (international) (202) 694-5288 Electronic copies available at: World Wide Web Site www.econ.ag.gov ERS Autofax system (202) 694-5700 Document Number 12105 The next electronic Wheat Outlook report will be issued on October 13, 1998. The 1998 Wheat Yearbook is now available at: 1) ERS Autofax; Call (202) 694-5700 and select document 12100 for a complete directory of the historical tables and special articles. 2) ERS Homepage: www.econ.ag.gov/, select "Products and Services," then "Publications," "Field Crops," and "Wheat." Other wheat publications may be obtained from the ERS "Wheat Briefing Room" at http://www.econ.ag.gov/Briefing/wheat. Table 1--Wheat: U.S. market year supply and disappearance, 08/12/98 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Item | 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98E 1998/99P ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Area (mil. ac.) | Nat'l. total base | 89.6 88.9 88.5 87.9 N.A. N.A. Eff. base/ctr.acres| 78.4 78.1 77.7 77.3 77.3 78.4 0,50/92/85 | 5.7 5.2 6.1 N.A. N.A. N.A. CRP base retired | 10.8 10.8 10.8 10.6 10.1 9.7 Planted | 72.2 70.3 69.1 75.6 71.0 65.8 Harvested | 62.7 61.8 60.9 62.9 63.6 59.2 | Yield (bu/ac) | 38.2 37.6 35.8 36.3 39.7 43.0 | Supply (mil. bu.) | Beg. Stocks | 530.7 568.5 506.6 376.0 443.6 723.3 Production | 2,396.4 2,321.0 2,182.6 2,285.1 2,526.6 2,548.9 Imports 1/ | 108.8 91.9 67.9 92.3 94.9 90.0 Total supply | 3,035.9 2,981.4 2,757.1 2,753.5 3,065.1 3,362.2 | Use | Food | 871.7 853.0 882.9 891.5 915.1 925.0 Seed | 96.3 89.2 104.0 103.1 92.2 93.0 Feed & Residual | 271.7 344.4 153.0 313.9 294.3 400.0 Total domestic | 1,239.7 1,286.6 1,139.9 1,308.5 1,301.6 1,418.0 Exports 1/ | 1,227.7 1,188.3 1,241.1 1,001.4 1,040.2 1,125.0 Total use | 2,467.4 2,474.8 2,381.1 2,309.9 2,341.8 2,543.0 | Ending stocks | 568.5 506.6 376.0 443.6 723.3 819.2 Farmer-Owned Res. | 6.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 CCC inventory 2/ | 150.0 142.0 118.0 93.0 94.0 94.0 Free stocks | 412.5 364.6 258.0 350.6 629.3 725.2 Stocks-to-use ratio | 23.0 20.5 15.8 19.2 30.9 32.2 | Prices ($/bu.) | Target price | 4.00 4.00 4.00 N.A. N.A. N.A. Loan rate | 2.45 2.58 2.58 2.58 2.58 2.58 Contract rate 3/ | 1.03 0.61 0.00 0.87 0.63 0.66 Ave. farm price | 3.26 3.45 4.55 4.30 3.38 --- Proj. range | --- --- --- --- --- 2.55-2.95 | Contract pmts. | (mil. dollars)3/ | 1,904 1,146 100 1,976 1,426 1,523 Market value | of production | (mil. dollars) | 7,812 8,007 9,787 9,815 8,540 7,009 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Source: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, WAOB, USDA. Totals may not add due to rounding. E--Estimated, P--Projected, N.A.--not applicable. 1/ Imports and exports include flour and other products expressed in wheat equivalent. 2/ Includes Food Security Reserve. 3/ Deficiency payments prior to 1996/97. Table 2--Wheat supply and disappearance by class, 08/12/98 1/ ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1997/98E | HRW HRS SRW White Durum All wheat ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Area: | Million acres Planted | 34.2 18.5 10.0 5.0 3.3 71.0 Harvested | 28.9 17.8 8.9 4.8 3.1 63.6 | | Bushels per harvested acre Yield | 38.8 28.1 54.4 69.8 27.7 39.7 | Supply: | Million bushels Beg. stocks | 143 166 45 59 31 444 Production | 1,121 501 484 335 86 2,527 Imports 2/ | 1 55 0 8 29 95 TOTAL | 1,265 723 529 402 146 3,065 Utilization: | Total domestic use | 599 263 269 107 63 1,302 Exports 2/ | 358 240 180 205 57 1,040 TOTAL | 957 503 449 312 120 2,342 | Ending stocks | 307 220 80 90 26 723 | ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1998/99 (estimated) | HRW HRS SRW White Durum All wheat ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Area: | Million acres Planted | 32.6 18.5 10.0 4.9 4.1 65.8 Harvested | 27.9 14.1 9.1 4.6 3.6 59.2 | | Bushels per harvested acre Yield | 43.0 32.3 49.3 69.1 35.2 43.0 | Supply: | Million bushels Beg. stocks | 307 220 80 90 26 723 Production | 1,200 456 449 318 126 2,549 Imports 2/ | 1 56 0 10 23 90 TOTAL | 1,509 732 529 418 175 3,362 | Utilization: | Total domestic use | 637 253 290 146 92 1,418 Exports 2/ | 475 275 155 175 45 1,125 TOTAL | 1,112 528 445 322 136 2,543 | Ending stocks | 397 204 84 97 38 819 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Source: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, WAOB, USDA. Totals may not add due to rounding. E--Estimated, P--Projected. 1/ ERS estimates of area, yield, and domestic use. 2/ Imports and exports include flour and other products expressed in wheat equivalent.Table 3--Wheat: Quarterly supply and disappearance (1,000 bu.), 08/12/98 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Market | Produc- Imports Supply Food Seed Feed Exports Ending Year | tion 1/ 1/ stocks ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1995/96: | Jun-Aug | 2,183 23 2,712 215 8 305 303 1,881 Sep-Nov | 0 16 1,897 232 65 (99) 361 1,338 Dec-Feb | 0 12 1,350 216 3 13 294 823 Mar-May | 0 17 841 220 28 (66) 283 376 Mkt. yr. | 2,183 68 2,757 883 104 153 1,241 376 1996/97E: | Jun-Aug | 2,285 15 2,676 224 9 385 334 1,724 Sep-Nov | 0 21 1,745 234 60 (76) 308 1,219 Dec-Feb | 0 27 1,246 213 2 30 179 822 Mar-May | 0 30 852 221 32 (25) 180 444 Mkt. yr. | 2,285 92 2,753 891 103 314 1,001 444 1997/98P: | Jun-Aug | 2,527 23 2,993 228 3 397 288 2,076 Sep-Nov | 0 23 2,099 239 59 (114) 296 1,619 Dec-Feb | 0 24 1,643 219 2 1 255 1,167 Mar-May | 0 26 1,192 230 28 10 201 723 Mkt. yr. | 2,527 95 3,065 915 92 294 1,040 723 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Totals may not add due to rounding. E--Estimated, P--Projected. 1/ Imports and exports include flour and selected products expressed in wheat equivalent. Table 4--Wheat: Food disappearance (1,000 bu.), 1997/98, 08/12/98 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- | June July August September October November ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Mill grind + | 72,062 76,140 75,591 78,077 82,392 75,058 Food exports - | 1,858 2,977 1,841 3,322 2,823 1,896 Food imports + | 1,558 1,602 1,746 1,526 1,909 1,768 Non-flour | food use + | 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 Food use | 73,763 76,765 77,495 78,280 83,478 76,929 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- | December January February March April May ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Mill grind + | 74,618 70,544* 69,758* 76,699* 71,762* 73,426* Food exports - | 3,323 1,569 2,910 1,522 1,410 1,160 Food imports + | 2,188 1,624 1,608 1,943 2,179 1,917 Non-flour | food use + | 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 Food use | 75,483 72,599 70,456 79,120 74,531 76,183 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Census. Wheat flour and products converted to wheat grain equivalent. Non-flour food use is ERS estimate. *Estimated from Census' quarterly mill grind using 5-year seasonal patterns within each calander quarter. Monthly food use estimates since 1990/91 are available in ERS Autofax Document 12180. Table 5--Wheat: Farm prices and prices at selected markets ($/bu.), 08/12/98 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- | ---------------------- Farm prices ------------------------- | All wheat | Winter | Durum | Other spring Month | 97/98 98/99 | 97/98 98/99 | 97/98 98/99 | 97/98 98/99 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Jun | 3.52 2.77 | 3.42 2.68 | 4.21 3.98 | 3.74 3.22 Jul 1/| 3.23 2.57 | 3.16 2.50 | 4.61 3.56 | 3.66 3.20 Aug | 3.56 . | 3.39 . | 5.23 . | 3.75 . Sep | 3.67 . | 3.47 . | 5.35 . | 3.64 . Oct | 3.55 . | 3.42 . | 5.09 . | 3.49 . Nov | 3.50 . | 3.31 . | 5.25 . | 3.55 . Dec | 3.45 . | 3.25 . | 5.17 . | 3.51 . Jan | 3.33 . | 3.16 . | 5.02 . | 3.45 . Feb | 3.27 . | 3.16 . | 4.71 . | 3.34 . Mar | 3.32 . | 3.15 . | 4.68 . | 3.42 . Apr | 3.15 . | 2.94 . | 4.45 . | 3.41 . May | 3.06 . | 2.90 . | 4.29 . | 3.31 . | KC HRW #1 | KC HRW #1 | St. Louis | Portland | ordinary | 13% prot. | #2 SRW | #1 soft white Month | 97/98 98/99 | 97/98 98/99 | 97/98 98/99 | 97/98 98/99 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Jun | 4.08 3.16 | 4.19 3.57 | 3.46 2.66 | 4.20 2.93 Jul | 3.57 . | 3.80 . | 3.34 . | 3.85 . Aug | 3.84 . | 4.11 . | 3.64 . | 4.10 . Sep | 3.86 . | 4.07 . | 3.62 . | 4.12 . Oct | 3.88 . | 4.09 . | 3.58 . | 3.98 . Nov | 3.87 . | 4.09 . | 3.57 . | 3.88 . Dec | 3.72 . | 4.01 . | 3.53 . | 3.79 . Jan | 3.61 . | 3.80 . | 3.87 . | 3.67 . Feb | 3.64 . | 3.86 . | 3.32 . | 3.58 . Mar | 3.61 . | 3.94 . | 3.24 . | 3.56 . Apr | 3.39 . | 3.82 . | 3.05 . | 3.34 . May | 3.41 . | 3.75 . | 2.89 . | 3.28 . | Minneapolis | Minneapolis | FOB Gulf | Average EEP | DNS 14% | #1 durum | $/ton (HRW) | bonus $/ton 2/ Month | 97/98 98/99 | 97/98 98/99 | 97/98 98/99 | 97/98 98/99 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Jun | 4.44 4.01 | 5.38 5.00 | 148 121 | 0.00 0.00 Jul | 4.36 . | 5.93 . | 140 118 | 0.00 0.00 Aug | 4.49 . | 6.39 . | 152 | 0.00 . Sep | 4.36 . | 6.69 . | 150 | 0.00 . Oct | 4.35 . | 6.52 . | 153 | 0.00 . Nov | 4.42 . | 6.38 . | 150 | 0.00 . Dec | 4.27 . | 6.55 . | 145 | 0.00 . Jan | 4.12 . | 5.60 . | 139 | 0.00 . Feb | 4.15 . | 5.64 . | 140 | 0.00 . Mar | 4.26 . | 5.81 . | 139 | 0.00 . Apr | 4.29 . | 5.63 . | 130 | 0.00 . May | 4.24 . | 5.15 . | 129 | 0.00 . ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Mid-month price for current month of the 1998/99 marketing year. 2/ Weighted Average, all classes. Source: NASS & AMS, USDA. Table 6--Wheat: Exports and imports, 08/12/98 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- U.S. wheat exports, (1,000 bu.) 1997/98 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Item | December January February March April May ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Wheat grain | 80,906 97,090 68,972 63,914 64,623 68,359 Wheat flour | 3,118 1,403 2,723 1,280 1,257 925 Products | 240 205 188 336 173 371 Total | 84,264 98,698 71,883 65,530 66,053 69,655 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- U.S. wheat imports, (1,000 bu.) 1997/98 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Item | December January February March April May --------------|-------------------------------------------------------------- Wheat grain | 6,638 5,145 6,534 7,171 5,619 6,837 Wheat flour | 536 510 447 483 572 509 Products | 1,680 1,114 1,163 1,461 1,610 1,410 Total | 8,854 6,769 8,144 9,115 7,801 8,756 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Census. Wheat flour and products converted to wheat grain equivalent. Totals may not add due to rounding Monthly and quarterly estimates since 1995/96 are available in ERS Autofax Document 12181. Table 7--Wheat: U.S. exports, Census and Export Sales comparison, 08/12/98 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- | 1996/97 | 1997/98 | 1998/99 (as of 8/6/98) |--------------------------------------------------------------- | |Ship- |Outstanding| Total | Shipments |ments | sales | ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Data | | Export | | Export | Export Source | Census | Sales |Census | Sales | Sales ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Country: | --1,000 metric tons-- Algeria | 350 | 350 | 198 | 172 | 203 25 228 China | 1,003 | 1,065 | 285 | 380 | 64 0 64 Egypt | 2,684 | 2,825 | 4,837 | 4,982 | 481 484 965 FSU | 408 | 288 | 448 | 275 | 0 15 15 Japan | 3,325 | 3,264 | 3,169 | 3,373 | 342 421 763 S. Korea | 1,544 | 1,646 | 1,446 | 1,400 | 260 327 587 Morocco | 443 | 421 | 516 | 597 | 18 18 36 Nigeria | 590 | 698 | 730 | 817 | 297 158 455 Pakistan | 2,027 | 1,973 | 2,180 | 2,232 | 25 275 300 Philippines | 1,772 | 1,876 | 1,458 | 1,531 | 352 250 601 Total grain | 26,516 | 25,964 | 27,295 | 27,518 | 4,394 4,298 8,692 Total(incl) | | | | | products)1/ | 27,254 | 26,127 | 28,308 | 27,626 | 4,413 4,339 8,752 USDA forecast| | | | | of Census | | | | | 30,617 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Source: U.S. Export Sales, FAS, USDA. 1/ Grain equivalent basis. END_OF_FILE