WHEAT OUTLOOK January 14, 1999 January 1999, ERS-WHS-0199 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board --------------------------------------------------------------------------- WHEAT OUTLOOK is issued six times a year by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. Electronic release only; no printed copies available. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- WHEAT OUTLOOK is issued monthly in electronic form by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. Printed copies are not available. The report is available as Autofax document 12105. Highlights -- 1999/2000 winter wheat acreage drops for third year in a row -- Ending stocks forecast up -- U.S. export forecast reduced 1 million tons this month -- NASS publishes final estimates for field crops 1992-97 The first indication of winter wheat plantings for 1999/2000 is much lower than expected, which may strengthen new-crop price prospects for wheat. However, price strength will be limited by continued large 1998/99 supplies and weak demand. Projected 1998/99 carryout stocks, at 900 million bushels, are up this month because of a reduction of 25 million bushels in feed and residual use and a 50-million-bushel reduction in wheat export projections for 1998/99. The season-average farm price is now forecast at $2.65 - $2.75 per bushel, compared with $3.38 in 1997/98. Winter Wheat Acreage Drops for Third Year in a Row Planted winter wheat area for the 1999 crop is estimated at 43.4 million acres, the lowest since 1972/73 and down 7 percent from 1998. Apparently, farmers responded to low prices last fall by planting less wheat. While some of the area seeded to winter wheat a year earlier will be planted to other crops such as oilseeds and feed grains, some will likely be left fallow, especially in the drier sections of the Great Plains. Also, some of the area in Montana and the Pacific Northwest will likely be planted to spring wheat. Hard Red Winter (HRW) wheat seeded area is about 30.9 million acres, down 5 percent from 1998. Most HRW States have a smaller seeded area this year. Nebraska and Texas were notable exceptions, each having increases of 100,000 acres. The largest decline occurred in Montana where area is down 25 percent from 1988 to 350,000 acres, the smallest since 1937. Poor weather probably prevented some planting of HRW wheat in Montana, and these acres may be planted with spring wheats or barley in 1999. The Soft Red Winter (SRW) area, pegged at 9.0 million acres, is down 1.2 million acres or 12 percent from 1998. About three- fourths of the drop occurred in the soft red belt stretching from Arkansas to Ohio. Also, nearly all of the SRW producing States in the Southeast have fewer seeded acres. White Winter (WW) wheat seeded area totals 3.48 million acres, down 11 percent from 1998. The major producing States in the Pacific Northwest account for most of the decline. Idaho's area is the lowest since 1962. The State of Washington had the largest absolute decline, loosing about 300,000 acres of winter wheat. Michigan is the only WW wheat producing State with an increase in area seeded. Crop conditions are generally favorable across the Plains, with emergence spotty in Montana. About 72 percent of the crop in Kansas was rated good or excellent at the end of December. Overall, 72 percent of the U.S. winter wheat crop was rated good to excellent on November 29, 1998, the same as a year earlier. Lack of snow cover is a concern is some areas as colder weather moves in. Ending Stocks Forecast Up December 1 wheat stocks were 1.9 billion bushels, up 17 percent from a year earlier and the largest since 1990/91. The large stocks indicate there was less feed and residual in the first 6 months, so the annual feed and residual forecast for 1998/99 has been reduced 25 million bushels to 350 million. Lower winter wheat plantings resulted in a 5-million-bushel drop in seed use. Projected exports for 1998/99 were lowered 50 million bushels because of increased competition and lower global imports. Export projections for all classes of wheat except white were reduced this month, reflecting the sluggish export pace for those classes. Season-to-date white shipments have been relatively strong. HRW exports are projected at 493 million bushels, down 27 million bushels from last month. HRS export projections have been reduced 10 million bushels to 280 million bushels, SRW export projections have been reduced 10 million bushels to 75 million, and durum export projections have been reduced 3 million bushels this month to 37 million. Together, these changes translate into a 73-million-bushel gain in projected U.S. ending stocks for 1998/99 over last month. Ending stocks for 1998/99 are projected at 900 million bushels, 24 percent above 1997/98. U.S. Export Forecast Reduced 1 Million Tons This Month The U.S. wheat export forecast was reduced 1 million tons for the 1998/99 July/June international year and 50 million bushels for the June/May U.S. marketing year. According to U.S. Export Sales, wheat shipments from June through December were 10 percent behind the year-ago pace, and outstanding sales lagged a year earlier by 20 percent. Commercial sales have not reached earlier anticipations. Over the final 5 months of the marketing year the export pace is expected to be much stronger than a year ago because of the large food aid shipment program. The export forecast assumes that all announced wheat aid shipments will occur before the end of 1998/99. This includes the 2.5 million tons announced by USDA on October 28, 1998, and 1.7 million tons to Russia. As of the end of December only a small portion of the food aid allocations had been shipped. U.S. commercial sales have been plagued by stronger than expected competition and anemic demand. This month, import forecasts for the Philippines and Venezuela were reduced because of the slow pace of purchases. World wheat trade in 1998/99 is expected to fall to 97.5 million tons, the lowest in 12 years. Even though production is forecast down 24 million tons (29 percent) in the former Soviet Union and down 13 million tons (11 percent)in China, these two regions combined are expected to increase imports by less than 2 million tons, and that will be food aid to Russia. Reduced demand and lack of foreign exchange limit commercial imports by Russia, and large grain stocks mitigate the need for imports by China. These two nations used to be the world's leading wheat importers, but now, even with sharply reduced production, they are not. Competition in the international wheat market for the remainder of 1998/99 may be more intense than anticipated earlier because Argentina's wheat production prospects have improved with timely rainfall. Argentina's production forecast is up 3 percent this month and exports are 0.5 million tons higher. Despite reduced production this year, larger than expected early-season shipments of wheat by Russia were the basis for increasing exports by 0.25 million tons. NASS Publishes Final Estimates for Field Crops for 1992-97 The National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) published revised acreage yield, and production estimates for field crops for 1992-97 in December 1998 (Field Crops--Final Estimates 1992-97, Stat. Bul. No. 947). The final estimates of acreage, yield, and production by type of wheat are presented in Table A for the years 1992-98. Estimates are unchanged for the crop years 1992 -94, and the most significant changes occurred for the 1997 crop where production of all wheat was reduced by 45.1 million bushels. This drop reflects decreases for winter wheat (-37.1 million bushels) and other spring wheat (-9.6 million bushels) and an increase for durum wheat (+1.6 million bushels). Table A--Wheat: Estimated acreage, yield, and production, 1992-97 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Year Planted Harvested Yield Production Planted Harvested Yield Production ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ---1,000 ac--- Bu/ac 1,000 bu. ---1,000 ac--- Bu/ac 1,000 bu. ------------All wheat----------- ----------Durum wheat---------- 1992 72,219 62,761 39.3 2,466,798 2,547 2,519 39.7 99,906 1993 72,168 62,712 38.2 2,396,440 2,241 2,100 33.6 70,476 1994 70,349 61,770 37.6 2,320,981 2,823 2,715 35.6 96,947 1995 69,031* 60,955* 35.8 2,182,708* 3,436 3,356 30.5 102,280 1996 75,105* 62,819* 36.3* 2,277,388* 3,630 3,556 32.6 116,090 1997 70,412* 62,840* 39.5* 2,481,466* 3,310* 3,177* 27.6* 87,783* ----------Winter wheat---------- -------Other spring wheat------ 1992 50,922 42,123 38.2 1,609,284 18,750 18,119 41.8 757,608 1993 51,587 43,811 40.2 1,760,143 18,340 16,801 33.7 565,281 1994 49,197 41,355 40.2 1,661,943 18,329 17,700 31.8 562,291 1995 48,591* 40,987* 37.7 1,545,303* 17,004* 16,612* 32.2 535,125* 1996 51,445* 39,574* 37.1* 1,469,618* 20,030* 19,689* 35.1 691,680* 1997 47,985* 41,340* 44.6* 1,845,528* 19,117* 18,323* 29.9 548,155* ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/Historical data are available in Wheat Yearbook, WHS-1998, March 1998, p.40. * Indicates that estimate has been revised based on changes at the state level. Final estimates of wheat production by class for crop years 1992-97 are presented in Table B. These estimates have been incorporated in the ERS data base, and this month's regular tables reflect these changes. Revised quarterly supply and disappearance estimates for marketing years 1992/93 -1997/98 are presented in an expanded Table 3 this month. Table B--Wheat: Production by Class, United States, 1992-97 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Crop All Hard red Hard red Soft red White White Year wheat winter spring Winter Winter spring Durum ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Million bushels 1992 2,466.798 967.220 706.710 426.665 215.409 50.898 99.906 1993 2,396.440 1,065.941 511.814 401.326 292.876 54.007 70.476 1994 2,320.981 971.161 515.315 438.204 252.587 46.976 96.747 1995 2,182.708* 825.011 474.795 455.568 264.724* 60.330* 102.280 1996 2,277.388* 759.324* 630.650* 419.757* 290.537* 61.030* 116.090 1997 2,481.466* 1,098.303* 491.324* 471.978* 275.238* 56.831* 87.783* ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/Historical data are available in Wheat Yearbook, WHS-1998, March 1998, p.41. * Indicates that estimate has been revised based on changes at the state level. Information Contacts: Mack N. Leath (domestic) (202) 694-5302 Edward W. Allen (international) (202) 694-5288 Electronic copies available at: World Wide Web Site www.econ.ag.gov ERS Autofax system (202) 694-5700 Document Number 12105 The next electronic Wheat Outlook report will be issued on February 12, 1999. The 1998 Wheat Yearbook is now available at: 1) ERS Autofax; Call (202) 694-5700 and select document 12100 for a complete directory of the historical tables and special articles. 2) ERS Homepage: www.econ.ag.gov/, select "Products and Services," then "Publications," "Field Crops," and "Wheat." Other wheat publications may be obtained from the ERS "Wheat Briefing Room" at http://www.econ.ag.gov/Briefing/wheat. Table 1--Wheat: U.S. market year supply and disappearance, 1/12/99 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Item | 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96R 1996/97R 1997/98E 1998/99P ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Area (mil. ac.) | Nat'l. total base | 89.6 88.9 88.5 87.9 N.A. N.A. Eff. base/ctr.acres| 78.4 78.1 77.7 77.3 77.3 78.4 0,50/92/85 | 5.7 5.2 6.1 N.A. N.A. N.A. CRP base retired | 10.8 10.8 10.8 10.6 10.1 9.7 Planted | 72.2 70.3 69.0 75.1 70.4 65.9 Harvested | 62.7 61.8 61.0 62.8 62.8 59.0 | Yield (bu/ac) | 38.2 37.6 35.8 36.3 39.5 43.2 | Supply (mil. bu.) | Beg. Stocks | 530.7 568.5 506.6 376.0 443.6 722.5 Production | 2,396.4 2,321.0 2,182.7 2,277.4 2,481.5 2,550.4 Imports 1/ | 108.8 91.9 67.9 92.3 94.8 90.0 Total supply | 3,035.9 2,981.4 2,757.2 2,745.7 3,019.9 3,362.9 | Use | Food | 871.7 853.0 882.9 890.8 916.7 925.0 Seed | 96.3 89.0 103.5 102.3 92.6 88.0 Feed & Residual | 271.7 344.5 153.7 307.6 248.0 350.0 Total domestic | 1,239.7 1,286.6 1,140.1 1,300.7 1,257.2 1,363.0 Exports 1/ | 1,227.8 1,188.3 1,241.1 1,001.4 1,040.2 1,100.0 Total use | 2,467.4 2,474.8 2,381.2 2,302.1 2,297.4 2,463.0 | Ending stocks | 568.5 506.6 376.0 443.6 722.5 899.9 Farmer-Owned Res. | 6.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 CCC inventory 2/ | 150.0 142.0 118.0 93.0 94.0 95.0 Free stocks | 412.5 364.6 258.0 350.6 628.5 804.9 Stocks-to-use ratio | 23.0 20.5 15.8 19.3 31.4 36.5 | Prices ($/bu.) | Target price | 4.00 4.00 4.00 N.A. N.A. N.A. Loan rate | 2.45 2.58 2.58 2.58 2.58 2.58 Contract rate 3/ | 1.03 0.61 0.00 0.87 0.63 0.66 Ave. farm price | 3.26 3.45 4.55 4.30 3.38 --- Proj. range | --- --- --- --- --- 2.65-2.75 | Contract pmts. | (mil. dollars)3/ | 1,904 1,146 100 1,976 1,426 1,523 Market value | of production | (mil. dollars) | 7,812 8,007 9,787 9,793 8,387 6,886 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Source: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, WAOB, USDA, 1/12/99. Totals may not add due to rounding. R--Revised, E--Estimated, P--Projected, N.A.--not applicable. 1/ Imports and exports include wheat flour and other wheat products expressed in wheat equivalent. 2/ Includes Food Security Reserve. 3/ Deficiency payments prior to 1996/97. Table 2--Wheat supply and disappearance by class, 1/12/99 1/ ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1997/98E | HRW HRS SRW White Durum All wheat ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Area: | Million acres Planted | 34.0 18.5 9.9 4.9 3.3 70.4 Harvested | 28.7 17.5 8.7 4.8 3.2 62.8 | | Bushels per harvested acre Yield | 39.2 28.1 54.3 70.1 27.4 39.5 | Supply: | Million bushels Beg. stocks | 143 166 45 59 31 444 Production | 1,098 491 472 332 88 2,481 Imports 2/ | 1 57 0 8 29 95 TOTAL | 1,242 714 517 399 148 3,020 Utilization: | Total domestic use | 577 254 257 104 65 1,257 Exports 2/ | 358 240 180 205 57 1,040 TOTAL | 935 494 437 309 122 2,297 | Ending stocks | 307 220 80 90 26 722 | ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1998/99 (Projected) | HRW HRS SRW White Durum All wheat ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Area: | Million acres Planted | 32.4 14.9 10.2 4.7 3.9 65.9 Harvested | 27.3 14.4 9.1 4.5 3.7 59.0 | | Bushels per harvested acre Yield | 43.3 33.8 48.6 66.2 38.1 43.2 | Supply: | Million bushels Beg. stocks | 307 220 80 90 26 722 Production | 1,182 487 443 298 141 2,550 Imports 2/ | 1 56 0 10 23 90 TOTAL | 1,490 762 523 396 193 3,363 | Utilization: | Total domestic use | 604 264 298 111 87 1,363 Exports 2/ | 493 280 75 215 37 1,100 TOTAL | 1,096 544 373 326 124 2,463 | Ending stocks | 393 217 150 70 69 900 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Source: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, WAOB, USDA. Totals may not add due to rounding. E--Estimated, P--Projected. 1/ ERS estimates of area, yield, and domestic use. 2/ Imports and exports include flour and other products expressed in wheat equivalent. Table 3--Wheat: Quarterly supply and disappearance (1,000 bu.), 1/12/99 1/ ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Market | Produc- Imports Supply Food Seed Feed Exports Ending Year | tion 2/ 2/ stocks ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1992/93R:| Jun-Aug | 2,467 20 2,962 211 1 346 283 2,121 Sep-Nov | 0 16 2,137 219 63 (82) 345 1,592 Dec-Feb | 0 17 1,609 197 3 5 356 1,048 Mar-May | 0 16 1,064 208 32 (75) 370 531 Mkt. yr. | 2,467 70 3,012 835 99 194 1,354 531 1993/94R:| Jun-Aug | 2,396 15 2,942 211 1 296 301 2,133 Sep-Nov | 0 30 2,163 225 61 (38) 329 1,586 Dec-Feb | 0 27 1,613 211 2 39 332 1,028 Mar-May | 0 37 1,065 224 32 (25) 266 568 Mkt. yr. | 2,396 109 3,036 872 96 272 1,228 568 1994/95R:| Jun-Aug | 2,321 31 2,920 213 2 376 260 2,069 Sep-Nov | 0 21 2,091 229 61 (29) 338 1,491 Dec-Feb | 0 18 1,509 202 2 25 310 969 Mar-May | 0 22 991 209 24 (28) 280 507 Mkt. yr. | 2,321 92 2,981 853 89 345 1,188 507 1995/96R:| Jun-Aug | 2,183 23 2,712 215 8 305 303 1,881 Sep-Nov | 0 16 1,897 232 64 (98) 361 1,338 Dec-Feb | 0 12 1,350 216 3 13 294 823 Mar-May | 0 17 841 220 28 (66) 283 376 Mkt. yr. | 2,183 68 2,757 883 103 154 1,241 376 1996/97R:| Jun-Aug | 2,277 15 2,668 224 9 378 334 1,724 Sep-Nov | 0 21 1,745 234 60 (76) 308 1,219 Dec-Feb | 0 27 1,246 213 2 30 179 822 Mar-May | 0 30 852 221 32 (24) 180 444 Mkt. yr. | 2,277 92 2,746 891 102 308 1,001 444 1997/98E:| Jun-Aug | 2,481 23 2,948 228 3 352 288 2,076 Sep-Nov | 0 23 2,099 239 59 (113) 296 1,619 Dec-Feb | 0 24 1,643 220 2 (1) 255 1,167 Mar-May | 0 26 1,192 230 29 10 201 722 Mkt. yr. | 2,481 95 3,020 917 93 248 1,040 722 1998/99P:| Jun-Aug | 2,550 24 3,297 226 1 427 257 2,385 Sep-Nov | 0 23 2,408 244* 55 (88) 305 1,892 Mkt. yr. | 2,550 90 3,362 925 88 350 1,100 900 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Totals may not add due to rounding. R--Revised, E--Estimated, P--Projected. 1/ Data have been revised based on final acreage, yield, production and stock estimates released by the National Agricultural Statistics Service. 2/ Imports and exports include flour and selected products expressed in wheat equivalent. *Estimate based on projected mill grinds for October and November. Table 4--Wheat: Food disappearance (1,000 bu.), 1996/97--1998/99, 1/12/99 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1996/97 | June July August September October November ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Mill grind + | 77,655 73,619 77,406 75,099 82,670 73.694 Food imports + | 1,603 1,704 1,739 1,385 1,830 1,789 Non-flour | food use + | 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 Food exports - | 2,114 2,121 1,772 3,161 2,648 2,846 Food use = | 79,144 75,202 79,372 75,323 83,853 74,637 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- | December January February March April May ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Mill grind + | 71,326 69,352 66,788 70,398 73,078 72,289 Food imports + | 1,957 1,570 1,526 1,646 1,630 1,807 Non-flour | food use + | 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 Food exports - | 3,336 1,452 2,025 2,620 1,410 2,233 Food use | 72,947 71,470 68,289 71,424 75,298 73,862 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1997/98 | June July August September October November ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Mill grind + | 72,062 76,140 75,591 78,077 82,392 75.058 Food imports + | 1,558 1,602 1,746 1,526 1,909 1,768 Non-flour | food use + | 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 Food exports - | 1,858 2,977 1,841 3,322 2,823 1,896 Food use = | 73,763 76,765 77,495 78,280 83,478 76,929 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- | December January February March April May ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Mill grind + | 74,618 71,274* 70,709* 75,018* 72,668* 74,300* Food imports + | 2,188 1,624 1,608 1,943 2,111 1,858 Non-flour | food use + | 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 Food exports - | 3,323 1,569 2,910 1,522 1,410 1,160 Food use | 75,483 73,329 71,407 77,439 75,368 76,998 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1998/99 | June July August September October November ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Mill grind + | 71,086* 71,461* 78,102* 75,101* N.A. N.A. Food imports + | 1,914 1,886 2,064 1,744 2,076 N.A. Non-flour | food use + | 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 N.A. Food exports - | 2,188 1,963 2,294 3,149 4,016 N.A. Food use = | 72,812 73,384 79,872 75,697 N.A. N.A. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Census. Wheat flour and products converted to wheat grain equivalent. Non-flour food use is ERS estimate. *Estimated from Census' quarterly mill grind using 5-year seasonal patterns within each calendar quarter. Mill grind for the second calendar quarter of 1998 will be released by Census in early November. Monthly food use estimates since 1990/91 are available in ERS Autofax Document 12180. N.A.=not available. Table 5--Wheat: Farm prices and prices at selected markets ($/bu.), 1/12/99 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- | ---------------------- Farm prices ------------------------- | All wheat | Winter | Durum | Other spring Month | 97/98 98/99 | 97/98 98/99 | 97/98 98/99 | 97/98 98/99 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Jun | 3.52 2.77 | 3.42 2.68 | 4.21 3.98 | 3.74 3.22 Jul | 3.23 2.56 | 3.16 2.48 | 4.61 3.37 | 3.66 3.08 Aug | 3.56 2.39 | 3.39 2.25 | 5.23 3.25 | 3.75 2.71 Sep | 3.66 2.41 | 3.46 2 32 | 5.35 3.08 | 3.64 2.65 Oct | 3.58 2.79 | 3.42 2.66 | 5.09 3.16 | 3.49 3.12 Nov | 3.54 2.97 | 3.31 2.78 | 5.25 3.17 | 3.55 3.26 Dec 1/| 3.44 2.90 | 3.24 2.73 | 5.16 3.05 | 3.51 3.20 Jan | 3.32 . | 3.16 . | 5.02 . | 3.45 . Feb | 3.27 . | 3.16 . | 4.71 . | 3.34 . Mar | 3.33 . | 3.15 . | 4.68 . | 3.42 . Apr | 3.18 . | 2.94 . | 4.45 . | 3.41 . May | 3.06 . | 2.90 . | 4.29 . | 3.31 . | KC HRW #1 | KC HRW #1 | St. Louis | Portland | ordinary | 13% prot. | #2 SRW | #1 soft white Month | 97/98 98/99 | 97/98 98/99 | 97/98 98/99 | 97/98 98/99 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Jun | 4.08 3.16 | 4.19 3.57 | 3.46 2.66 | 4.20 2.93 Jul | 3.57 3.02 | 3.80 3.57 | 3.34 2.43 | 3.85 2.72 Aug | 3.84 2.74 | 4.11 3.12 | 3.64 2.26 | 4.10 2.66 Sep | 3.86 2.81 | 4.07 3.17 | 3.62 2.12 | 4.12 2.69 Oct | 3.88 3.30 | 4.09 3.67 | 3.58 2.23 | 3.98 3.15 Nov | 3.87 3.42 | 4.09 3.89 | 3.57 2.41 | 3.88 3.15 Dec | 3.72 . | 4.01 . | 3.53 . | 3.79 . Jan | 3.61 . | 3.80 . | 3.87 . | 3.67 . Feb | 3.64 . | 3.86 . | 3.32 . | 3.58 . Mar | 3.61 . | 3.94 . | 3.24 . | 3.56 . Apr | 3.39 . | 3.82 . | 3.05 . | 3.34 . May | 3.41 . | 3.75 . | 2.89 . | 3.28 . | Minneapolis | Minneapolis | FOB Gulf | Average EEP | DNS 14% prot. | #1 durum | $/ton (HRW) | bonus $/ton 2/ Month | 97/98 98/99 | 97/98 98/99 | 97/98 98/99 | 97/98 98/99 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Jun | 4.44 4.01 | 5.38 5.00 | 148.44 120.52 | 0.00 0.00 Jul | 4.36 3.89 | 5.93 4.59 | 139.99 117.95 | 0.00 0.00 Aug | 4.49 3.58 | 6.39 4.20 | 151.75 108.76 | 0.00 0.00 Sep | 4.36 3.53 | 6.69 3.78 | 149.91 108.03 | 0.00 0.00 Oct | 4.35 4.03 | 6.52 4.04 | 152.85 126.03 | 0.00 0.00 Nov | 4.42 4.15 | 6.38 4.15 | 150.28 131.18 | 0.00 0.00 Dec | 4.27 . | 6.55 . | 145.14 . | 0.00 . Jan | 4.12 . | 5.60 . | 138.89 . | 0.00 . Feb | 4.15 . | 5.64 . | 139.99 . | 0.00 . Mar | 4.26 . | 5.81 . | 139.26 . | 0.00 . Apr | 4.29 . | 5.63 . | 130.44 . | 0.00 . May | 4.24 . | 5.15 . | 128.60 . | 0.00 . ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Mid-month price for current month of the 1998/99 marketing year. 2/ Weighted average, all classes. Source: NASS & AMS, USDA. Table 6--Wheat: Exports and imports for last six months, 1/12/99 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- U.S. wheat exports, (1,000 bu.) 1998 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Item | May June July August September October ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Wheat grain | 68,359 67,372 86,605 96,694 90,507 109,168 Wheat flour | 924 1,971 1,735 2,025 2,912 3,773 Products | 371 218 396 272 344 510 Total | 69,654 69,561 88,736 98,961 93,763 113,451 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- U.S. wheat imports, (1,000 bu.) 1998 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Item | May June July August September October -------------|--------------------------------------------------------------- Wheat grain | 6,837 5,391 6,090 6,771 4,770 7,585 Wheat flour | 508 590 601 568 711 661 Products | 1,351 1,501 1,285 1,498 1,035 1,416 Total | 8,696 7,482 7,976 8,837 6,516 9,662 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Census. Wheat flour and products converted to wheat grain equivalent. Totals may not add due to rounding. Monthly and quarterly estimates since 1995/96 are available in ERS Autofax Document 12181, and that document will be updated on or about 10/20/98. Table 7--Wheat: U.S. exports, Census and Export Sales comparison, 1/12/99 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- | 1996/97 | 1997/98 | 1998/99 (as of 1/7/99) |--------------------------------------------------------------- | |Ship- |Outstanding| Total | Shipments |ments | sales | ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Data | | Export | | Export | Export Source | Census | Sales |Census | Sales | Sales ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Country: | --1,000 metric tons-- Algeria | 350 | 350 | 198 | 172 | 369 0 369 China | 1,003 | 1,065 | 285 | 380 | 129 10 139 Egypt | 2,684 | 2,825 | 4,837 | 4,982 | 2,718 185 2,903 FSU | 408 | 288 | 448 | 275 | 89 0 89 Japan | 3,325 | 3,264 | 3,169 | 3,373 | 1,611 613 2,224 S. Korea | 1,544 | 1,646 | 1,446 | 1,400 | 825 271 1,096 Morocco | 443 | 421 | 516 | 597 | 129 0 129 Nigeria | 590 | 698 | 730 | 817 | 763 88 851 Pakistan | 2,027 | 1,973 | 2,180 | 2,232 | 794 0 794 Philippines | 1,772 | 1,876 | 1,458 | 1,531 | 1,108 210 1,317 Total grain | 26,516 | 25,964 | 27,295 | 27,518 |16,143 3,264 19,407 Total(incl) | | | | | products)1/ | 27,254 | 26,127 | 28,308 | 27,626 |16,197 3,298 19,496 USDA forecast| | | | | of Census | | | | | 29,937 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Source: U.S. Export Sales, FAS, USDA. 1/ Grain equivalent basis. END_OF_FILE