WHEAT OUTLOOK February 12, 1999 February 1999, ERS-WHS-0299 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board --------------------------------------------------------------------------- WHEAT OUTLOOK is issued monthly by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. Electronic release only; no printed copies available. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- WHEAT OUTLOOK is issued monthly in electronic form by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. Printed copies are not available. The report is available as Autofax document 12105. Highlights -- Higher imports and reduced exports lead to larger ending stocks -- SRW is no longer the wheat of choice for most foreign buyers -- U.S. 1998/99 wheat export forecast down 75 million bushels this month -- World consumption forecast down, but still 2 percent above production -- Winter wheat crop conditions normal in the southern Plains -- Special Article: Growth in U.S. flour consumption--can it be sustained? Higher Imports and Reduced Exports Lead to Larger Ending Stocks Imports of wheat and wheat products were raised 5 million bushels this month based on the stronger-than-expected pace through the first two quarters of the marketing year. Projected exports for 1998/99 were lowered 75 million bushels because of lower global imports and slower-than-expected food aid shipments to Russia and other needy countries. Export projections for hard red winter (HRW) and hard red spring (HRS) wheat were reduced this month, reflecting the sluggish export pace for those classes. HRW exports are projected at 438 million bushels, down 55 million from last month. HRS export projections have been reduced 20 million bushels to 260 million. Together, these changes translate into a 80-million-bushel gain in projected U.S. ending stocks for 1998/99 over last month. Ending stocks for 1998/99 are projected at 980 million bushels, 36 percent above 1997/98 and the largest since 1987/88. Soft red winter (SRW) ending stocks are projected at 150 million bushels, the largest carryout ever. SRW Is No Longer the Wheat of Choice for Traditional Foreign Buyers SRW exports are projected at 75 million bushels, down 105 million from last year. SRW exports were above 300 million bushels as recently as 1989/90, and totaled a record 460 million bushels in 1981/82. During the 1960's and 1970's SRW often moved under government aid programs such as PL 480 because it was the least expensive class of wheat. Shrinking aid shipments have been a factor in the declining volume in the 1990's, and the declining importance of importing countries' government procurement agencies is also believed to be an important factor. The government procurement agencies often bought the least expensive wheat available and not necessarily the wheat that was most preferred by their millers and end-users. As the role of government procurement agencies decline, foreign millers have a greater influence on purchasing decisions, and many are now purchasing other classes that are better suited for the intended end-uses of the flour they produce. An example is Egypt, currently the world's largest wheat importer and the primary destination for U.S. SRW wheat in recent years. The government purchasing agency still plays an important role, but Egyptian buyers have demonstrated a willingness to pay high premiums for HRW and white wheats this year. U.S. 1998/99 Wheat Export Forecast Down 75 Million Bushels This Month The U.S. 1998/99 wheat export forecast was reduced 75 million bushels to 1,025 million (June-May marketing year), or 1.5 million tons to 28.5 million (July-June trade year). Delayed food aid shipments, reduced world imports, and increased exports from some competitors are contributing to the decline. Some announced food aid that was expected to be shipped in 1998/99 now is likely to be delayed until the following year. For example, Russia's forecast imports were reduced this month by 1 million tons as U.S. and European Union (EU) aid shipments have been delayed. The slow pace of aid shipments also contributed to a 300,000-ton drop in Indonesia's wheat imports. The delayed aid shipments contribute to a 1.5-million-ton reduction this month in both the U.S. and EU 1998/99 (July-June) export forecasts. Competition between exporters remains intense. Wheat export forecasts were increased this month for Ukraine, Poland, and Argentina. Ukraine has shipped more wheat than expected, boosting forecast exports by almost 1 million tons this month, to more than 2 million. Wheat prices in Ukraine remain below world prices despite a small crop. The Polish government sold feed quality reserve stocks for export, boosting forecast exports from 100,000 tons to 500,000 this month. Increased expected production in Argentina boosted this month's export forecast by 500,000 tons. Like the United States and EU, Canada has failed to meet its expected export pace, so, its wheat export forecast has been reduced 500,000 tons this month. Imports volumes are lower than expected in several countries that are not affected by delayed food aid shipments. Iran's import forecast was reduced 500,000 tons because of the slow purchase pace, and Yemen's import forecast dropped 300,000 because of lower flour purchases. Algeria's import forecast was reduced by 600,000 tons based on increased production prospects. However, these reductions were partly offset by increased imports forecast for Pakistan, Morocco, and South Korea, countries that have purchased more wheat than expected. World Consumption Forecast Down, But Still 2 Percent Above Production This month's revisions to the world wheat supply and demand balance increased production, reduced consumption, dropped trade, and boosted stocks. The production increase was small, but was mostly in Argentina, an exporter whose supplies play a crucial role in world price determination. The drop in consumption was concentrated in the former Soviet Union, where Russia's consumption declined because of delays in aid shipments while Ukraine has emerged as a surprisingly strong exporter. World wheat trade in 1998/99 is now expected to slip to less than 96 million tons, down 2 percent from last month's forecast and almost 5 percent below the previous year. Projected 1998/99 trade is the lowest in 12 years. As a result, this month's increase in global ending stocks is concentrated among exporting countries. However, despite this month's revisions, world consumption in 1998/99 is still expected to exceed production by nearly 10 million tons, with global ending stocks expected to drop by a like amount. So, although the forecast 1998/99 world wheat supply and demand balance loosened noticeably this month, it is still tightening compared to a year ago. Winter Wheat Crop Conditions Normal in the Southern Plains Winter wheat conditions at the end of January were generally favorable across the southern Plains. About 67 percent of the crop in Kansas was rated good or excellent at the end of January, down from 72 percent at the end of December. Mild temperatures and very little winter precipitation resulted in a lack of snow cover across the State. Winter wheat conditions in Nebraska rated 81 percent good or excellent on February 1, and the crop appears to be doing well due to mild temperatures. In contrast, 31 percent of the Texas winter wheat crop rated good or excellent on February 1. The Oklahoma winter wheat crop was reported to be in good condition overall on February 1. Wheat fields available for cattle grazing ranged from 28 percent in the north central district to 78 percent in the south central district of that State. SPECIAL ARTICLE Growth in U.S. Flour Consumption--Can It Be Sustained? by Mack Leath Over the last 10 years, the U.S. flour milling industry has enjoyed unprecedented growth in response to a rapidly growing domestic demand for flour and flour products. Using data from the Bureau of the Census' Flour Milling reports, this article provides descriptive statistics related to U.S. flour production and attempts to identify growth trends in flour consumption. The article covers Census data on flour milling for the calendar years 1989 to 1998. Estimates of wheat ground for flour in calendar year 1998 are still preliminary and will be reviewed by Census in its annual Flour Milling report to be released in April. Wheat Ground--The quarterly Flour Milling report issued by Bureau of Census this month indicated that the volume of wheat ground by the flour milling industry reached a record 902.5 million bushels in 1998, the first time it surpassed the 900-million-bushel milestone. The volume of wheat ground for flour has increased, on average, approximately 1.9 percent per year during 1989-98 (table A.1). The volume of wheat ground by millers has increased every year during the study period except 1995. Flour Production--Flour production surpassed 400 million cwt for the second year in a row and totaled 403.9 million cwt in 1998 (table A.1). Surprisingly, flour output declined slightly in 1998, reflecting a decline in the average extraction rate from a record 76 percent established in 1997 to 74.6 percent in 1998. Flour imports through the first 11 months of 1998 totaled 9.2 million cwt, also a new record, and total flour supply in 1998 is projected to exceed 413 million cwt for the second year in a row. TABLE A.1 Wheat ground, flour production and total flour supply, United States, 1988-98 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Average Flour & Total Calendar Wheat Flour extraction product flour year ground production rate imports1/ supply ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1,000 bu. 1,000 cwt, Percent ----1,000 cwt.---- 1989 761,021 342,762 75.1 3,291 346,053 1990 788,186 354,348 74.9 3,574 357,992 1991 808,966 362,311 74.6 4,015 366,326 1992 833,339 370,829 74.2 4,969 375,978 1993 871,408 387,419 74.1 6,149 393,568 1994 884,707 392,519 73.9 8,926 401,445 1995 869,269 388,689 74.5 9,180 397,869 1996 878,070 397,776 75.5 8,833 406,609 1997 885,843 404,143 76.0 8,968 413,111 1998 2/ 902,532 403,880 74.6 9,131 3/ 413,011 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Includes macaroni and noodle products converting to flour equivalent units. 2/ Preliminary. 3/ January-November, 1998. TABLE A.2 Wheat flour: supply, exports, and domestic consumption, United States, 1988-98 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Calendar Flour Flour Product Domestic Population Per year supply exports exports1/ use July 1 capita ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1,000 bu ----------1,000 cwt-------- Million Pounds 1989 346,053 25,182 178 320,653 247.3 129.6 1990 357,922 17,979 269 339,825 249.9 136.0 1991 366,326 19,924 434 345,898 252.6 136.9 1992 375,798 20,666 611 354,521 255.4 138.8 1993 393,568 23,110 541 369,917 258.1 143.3 1994 401,445 24,196 724 376,525 260.7 144.5 1995 397,869 24,014 706 373,149 263.2 141.8 1996 406,609 11,003 714 394,892 265.5 148.7 1997 413,111 11,333 1,033 400,745 267.9 149.6 1998 2/ 413,011 10,756 3/ 1,215 3/ 401,040 270.3 148.4 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Includes macaroni and noodle products converting to flour equivalent units. 2/ Preliminary. 3/ January-November, 1998. Flour Supply--The supply of flour available for use in the United States consist of flour production plus imports of flour and macaroni and noodle products (converted to flour equivalent units). The total supply has exceeded 400 million cwt during 4 of the last 5 years. The preliminary estimate for 1998 will increase when December 1998 imports are added in. Domestic Consumption--Domestic consumption is measured by subtracting exports of flour and flour products from total supply. Domestic use is projected at 401 million cwt in 1998, an increase of 25 percent in the last 10 years. Per capita use appears to have leveled off during the last 3 years (table A.2). Per capita use approached 150 pounds in 1997, up 0.9 pound from the previous year. Flour consumption has grown rapidly in recent years, but the preliminary per capita consumption estimate for 1998 is down more than 1 pound from last year. Does this signal a leveling off of per capita consumption in future years? Year-to-year changes must be interpreted with caution since no adjustments are made for changes in end-of-year flour stocks at flour mills. During the last 10 years per capita use has been fairly stable during 3-year periods (1990-92, 1993- 95 and 1996-98), and each period was followed by a significant increase the following year. Only time will tell if this pattern continues. Many observers expected per capita use to surpass the 150-pounds plateau in 1998. This could still materialize when Census releases the annual Flour Milling report for 1998 in early April. The December trade data needed to complete the import and export picture for 1998 will be available later this month through ERS AutoFax document 12181 or through the March Wheat Outlook tables. Consumption of flour and flour products is expected to continue to grow in response to population growth and changes in consumer tastes and preferences. Growing health concerns have contributed to the dramatic increase in per capita use of grain-based products, and this will be a factor encouraging future growth. Food manufacturers continue to introduce wheat-based products in response to consumers' increasing desire for greater food variety. Consumption of more fast foods, pizzas, and frozen meals in flour-based sauces, tortillas, and other specialty items has contributed to the growth. All of these factors will provide potential for future growth, but signs that the growth rate in per capita consumption of wheat-based products is slowing may be emerging. Information Contacts: Mack N. Leath(domestic) (202) 694-5302 Edward W. Allen (international) 202) 694-5288 Electronic copies available at: ERS website: www.econ.ag.gov ERS AutoFax system: (202) 694-5700 Document Number12105 The next electronic Wheat Outlook report (tables only) will be issued on March 15, 1999. The next full report will be issued on April 13, 1999. The 1998 Wheat Yearbook is now available at: 1) ERS AutoFax; Call (202) 694-5700 and select document 12100 for a complete directory of the historical tables and special articles. 2) ERS Homepage: www.econ.ag.gov/, select "Products and Services," then "Publications," "Field Crops," and "Wheat." The 1999 Wheat Yearbook will available in electronic form on or about April 2, 1999. Other wheat publications may be obtained from the ERS "Wheat Briefing Room" at http://www.econ.ag.gov/Briefing/wheat. Table 1--Wheat: U.S. market year supply and disappearance, 2/10/99 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Item 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97R 1997/98E 1998/99P ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Area: (mil. ac.) National total base 89.6 88.9 88.5 87.9 N.A. N.A. Eff.base/Ctr. acres 78.4 78.1 77.7 77.3 77.3 78.4 0,50/92,85 5.7 5.2 6.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 CRP base retired 10.8 10.8 10.8 10.6 10.1 9.7 Planted 72.2 70.3 69.0 75.1 70.4 65.9 Harvested 62.7 61.8 61.0 62.8 62.8 59.0 Yield: (bu/acre) 38.2 37.6 35.8 36.3 39.5 43.2 Supply: (mil. bu.) Beginning stocks 530.7 568.5 506.6 376.0 443.6 722.5 Production 2,396.4 2,321.0 2,182.7 2,277.4 2,481.5 2,550.4 Imports 1/ 108.8 91.9 67.9 92.3 94.8 95.0 Total supply 3,035.9 2,981.4 2,757.2 2,745.7 3,019.9 3,367.9 Use: Food 871.7 853.0 882.9 890.8 916.7 925.0 Seed 96.3 89.0 103.5 102.3 92.6 88.0 Feed and residual 271.7 344.5 153.7 307.6 248.0 350.0 Total domestic 1,239.7 1,286.6 1,140.1 1,300.7 1,257.2 1,363.0 Exports 1/ 1,227.8 1,188.3 1,241.1 1,001.4 1,040.2 1,025.0 Total use 2,467.4 2,474.8 2,381.2 2,302.1 2,297.4 2,388.0 Ending stocks: 568.5 506.6 376.0 443.6 722.5 979.9 Farmer-owned reserve 6.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 CCC inventory 2/ 150.0 142.0 118.0 93.0 94.0 125.0 Free stocks 412.5 364.6 258.0 350.6 628.5 854.9 Stocks-to-use ratio 23.0 20.5 15.8 19.3 31.4 41.0 Prices: ($/bu.) Target price 4.00 4.00 4.00 N.A. N.A. N.A. Loan rate 2.45 2.58 2.58 2.58 2.58 2.58 Contract rate 3/ 1.03 0.61 0.00 0.87 0.63 0.66 Ave. farm price 3.26 3.45 4.55 4.30 3.38 2.65-2.75 Contract pmts. (mil. dollars) 3/ 1,904 1,146 100 1,976 1,426 1,523 Market value of production (mil. dollars) 7,812 8,007 9,787 9,793 8,387 6,886 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Source: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, WAOB, USDA. 1/ ERS estimates of area, yield, and domestic use. *Revised from January report to reflect historic revisions. Totals may not add due to rounding. E--Estimated, P--Projected. N.A.--not available. Table 2.A--Wheat supply and disappearance by class, 2/10/99 1/ ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1995/96 (Final)* | HRW HRS SRW White Durum All wheat ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Area: | Million acres Planted | 33.76 16.09 10.61 5.14 3.44 69.03 Harvested | 27.69 15.72 9.30 4.88 3.36 60.96 | | Bushels per harvested acre Yield | 29.79 30.20 48.98 66.58 30.48 35.81 | Supply: | Million bushels Beg. stocks | 193.7 193.3 36.6 57.0 26.0 506.6 Production | 825.0 474.8 455.7 325.1 102.3 2,182.7 Imports 2/ | 0.3 30.0 0.0 19.3 18.4 67.9 TOTAL | 1,019.0 698.1 492.2 401.4 146.6 2,757.2 Utilization: | Total domestic use | 480.8 262.1 207.0 108.0 82.2 1,140.1 Exports 2/ | 384.1 230.0 250.0 238.0 39.0 1,241.1 TOTAL | 865.0 592.1 457.0 346.0 121.2 2,381.2 | Ending stocks | 154.0 106.0 35.2 55.4 25.4 376.0 | ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1996/97 (Final)* | HRW HRS SRW White Durum All wheat ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Area: | Million acres Planted | 35.41 19.08 11.70 5.28 3.63 75.10 Harvested | 25.73 18.76 9.67 5.10 3.56 62.82 | | Bushels per harvested acre Yield | 29.52 33.61 43.40 68.93 32.65 36.25 | Supply: | Million bushels Beg. stocks | 154.0 106.0 35.2 55.4 25.4 376.0 Production | 759.3 630.6 419.8 351.6 116.1 2,277.4 Imports 2/ | 0.3 53.0 0.0 15.3 23.7 92.3 TOTAL | 913.6 789.6 455.0 422.3 165.2 2,745.7 | Utilization: | Total domestic use | 484.3 323.6 270.0 126.3 96.5 1,300.7 Exports 2/ | 286.4 300.0. 140.0 237.0 38.0 1,001.4 TOTAL | 770.8 623.6 410.0 363.3 134.5 2,302.1 | Ending stocks | 142.9 166.0 45.0 59.0 30.7 443.6 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Source: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, WAOB, USDA. 1/ ERS estimates of area, yield, and domestic use. *Final estimates based on NASS's historic revisions. Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Imports and exports include flour and other products expressed in wheat equivalent. Table 2.B--Wheat supply and disappearance by class, 2/10/99 1/ ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1997/98 (Estimates) | HRW HRS SRW White Durum All wheat ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Area: | Million acres Planted | 34.02 18.27* 9.88 4.93 3.31 70.41 Harvested | 28.71 17.51 8.71 4.73* 3.18 62.84 | | Bushels per harvested acre Yield | 38.25* 28.07 54.17* 70.19 27.63 39.49 | Supply: | Million bushels Beg. stocks | 142.9 166.0 45.0 59.0 30.7 443.6 Production | 1,098.3 491.3 472.0 332.1 87.8 2,481.5 Imports 2/ | 0.6 56.7 0.0 8.4 29.1 94.8 TOTAL | 1,241.8 714.0 517.0 399.5 147.6 3,019.9 Utilization: | Total domestic use | 577.2 254.0 257.0 104.5 64.5 1,257.2 Exports 2/ | 357.9 240.0 180.0 205.0 57.2 1,040.2 TOTAL | 935.2 494.0 437.0 309.5 121.8 2,297.4 | Ending stocks | 306.7 220.0 80.0 90.0 25.8 722.5 | ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1998/99 (Projections) | HRW HRS SRW White Durum All wheat ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Area: | Million acres Planted | 32.36 14.85 10.18 4.67 3.80* 65.87 Harvested | 27.34 14.41 9.06 4.46 3.73 59.00 | | Bushels per harvested acre Yield | 43.23* 33.79 48.86* 66.73* 37.84* 43.22 | Supply: | Million bushels Beg. stocks | 306.7 220.0 80.0 90.0 25.8 722.5 Production | 1,182.1 486.8 442.6 297.8 141.1 2,550.4 Imports 2/ | 1.0 57.0 0.0 9.0 28.0 95.0 TOTAL | 1,489.7 763.8 522.6 396.8 194.9 3,367.9 | Utilization: | Total domestic use | 603.5 264.5 297.6 110.8 86.6 1,363.0 Exports 2/ | 438.0 260.0 75.0 215.0 37.0 1,025.0 TOTAL | 1,041.5 524.5 372.6 325.8 123.6 2,388.0 | Ending stocks | 448.2 239.3 150.0 71.0 71.3 979.9 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Source: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, WAOB, USDA. 1/ ERS estimates of area, yield, and domestic use. *Revised from January report to reflect historic revisions. Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Imports and exports include flour and other products expressed in wheat equivalent. Table 3--Wheat: Quarterly supply and disappearance (1,000 bu.), 2/10/99 1/ ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Market | Produc- Imports Supply Food Seed Feed Exports Ending Year | tion 2/ 2/ stocks ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1996/97: | Jun-Aug | 2,277 15 2,668 224 9 378 334 1,724 Sep-Nov | 0 21 1,745 234 60 (76) 308 1,219 Dec-Feb | 0 27 1,246 213 2 30 179 822 Mar-May | 0 30 852 221 32 (24) 180 444 Mkt. yr. | 2,277 92 2,746 891 102 308 1,001 444 1997/98E:| Jun-Aug | 2,481 23 2,948 228 3 352 288 2,076 Sep-Nov | 0 23 2,099 239 59 (113) 296 1,619 Dec-Feb | 0 24 1,643 220 2 (1) 255 1,167 Mar-May | 0 26 1,192 230 29 10 201 722 Mkt. yr. | 2,481 95 3,020 917 93 248 1,040 722 1998/99P:| Jun-Aug | 2,550 24 3,297 227 1 426 257 2,385 Sep-Nov | 0 24 2,409 243 55 (72) 292 1,892 Mkt. yr. | 2,550 95 3,368 925 88 350 1,025 980 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Totals may not add due to rounding. E--Estimated, P--Projected. 1/ Data have been revised based on final acreage, yield, production and stock estimates released by the National Agricultural Statistics Service. 2/Imports and exports include flour and selected products expressed in wheat equivalent. Table 4--Wheat: Monthly food disappearance (1,000 bu.), 1998, 2/10/99 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1998 (estimated)| January February March April May June ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Mill grind 1/ + | 71,274 70,709 75,018 72,668 74,300 71,086 Food imports + | 1,624 1,608 1,943 2,111 1,858 1,914 Non-flour | food use + | 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 Food exports - | 1,593* 2,912* 1,551* 1,422* 1,198* 2,189* Food use | 73,305 71,405 77,410 75,357 76,960 72,812 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- | July August September October November December ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Mill grind 1/ + | 72,020* 78,713* 75,688* 84,414* 80,799 75,842 Food imports + | 1,886 2,064 1,744 2,076 2,020 N.A. Non-flour | food use + | 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 Food exports - | 1,968* 2,297* 3,151* 4,056* 2,524 N.A. Food use = | 73,938 80,480 76,282 84,436 82,295 N.A. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Census. Totals may not add due to rounding. Wheat flour and products converted to wheat grain equivalent. Non-flour food use is ERS estimate. 1/ Estimated from Census' quarterly mill grind using 5-year seasonal patterns within each calendar quarter. Monthly food use estimates since 1990/91 are available in ERS AutoFax Document 12180. N.A.=not available. *Revised. Table 5--Wheat: Farm prices and prices at selected markets ($/bu.), 2/10/99 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- | ---------------------- Farm prices ------------------------- | All wheat | Winter | Durum | Other spring Month | 97/98 98/99 | 97/98 98/99 | 97/98 98/99 | 97/98 98/99 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Jun | 3.52 2.77 | 3.42 2.68 | 4.21 3.98 | 3.74 3.22 Jul | 3.23 2.56 | 3.16 2.48 | 4.61 3.37 | 3.66 3.08 Aug | 3.56 2.39 | 3.39 2.25 | 5.23 3.25 | 3.75 2.71 Sep | 3.66 2.41 | 3.46 2 32 | 5.35 3.08 | 3.64 2.65 Oct | 3.58 2.79 | 3.42 2.66 | 5.09 3.16 | 3.49 3.12 Nov | 3.54 2.97 | 3.31 2.78 | 5.25 3.17 | 3.55 3.26 Dec | 3.44 2.87 | 3.24 2.67 | 5.16 3.14 | 3.51 3.26 Jan 1/| 3.32 2.86 | 3.16 2.71 | 5.02 3.02 | 3.44 3.20 Feb | 3.27 . | 3.16 . | 4.71 . | 3.34 . Mar | 3.33 . | 3.15 . | 4.68 . | 3.42 . Apr | 3.18 . | 2.94 . | 4.45 . | 3.41 . May | 3.06 . | 2.90 . | 4.29 . | 3.31 . | KC HRW #1 | KC HRW #1 | St. Louis | Portland | ordinary | 13% prot. | #2 SRW | #1 soft white Month | 97/98 98/99 | 97/98 98/99 | 97/98 98/99 | 97/98 98/99 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Jun | 4.08 3.16 | 4.19 3.57 | 3.46 2.66 | 4.20 2.93 Jul | 3.57 3.02 | 3.80 3.57 | 3.34 2.43 | 3.85 2.72 Aug | 3.84 2.74 | 4.11 3.12 | 3.64 2.26 | 4.10 2.66 Sep | 3.86 2.81 | 4.07 3.17 | 3.62 2.12 | 4.12 2.69 Oct | 3.88 3.30 | 4.09 3.67 | 3.58 2.23 | 3.98 3.15 Nov | 3.87 3.42 | 4.09 3.89 | 3.57 2.41 | 3.88 3.15 Dec | 3.72 3.31 | 4.01 3.74 | 3.53 2.54 | 3.79 3.12 Jan | 3.61 . | 3.80 . | 3.87 . | 3.67 . Feb | 3.64 . | 3.86 . | 3.32 . | 3.58 . Mar | 3.61 . | 3.94 . | 3.24 . | 3.56 . Apr | 3.39 . | 3.82 . | 3.05 . | 3.34 . May | 3.41 . | 3.75 . | 2.89 . | 3.28 . | Minneapolis | Minneapolis | FOB Gulf | Average EEP | DNS 14% prot. | #1 durum | $/ton (HRW) | bonus $/ton 2/ Month | 97/98 98/99 | 97/98 98/99 | 97/98 98/99 | 97/98 98/99 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Jun | 4.44 4.01 | 5.38 5.00 | 148.44 120.52 | 0.00 0.00 Jul | 4.36 3.89 | 5.93 4.59 | 139.99 117.95 | 0.00 0.00 Aug | 4.49 3.58 | 6.39 4.20 | 151.75 108.76 | 0.00 0.00 Sep | 4.36 3.53 | 6.69 3.78 | 149.91 108.03 | 0.00 0.00 Oct | 4.35 4.03 | 6.52 4.04 | 152.85 126.03 | 0.00 0.00 Nov | 4.42 4.15 | 6.38 4.15 | 150.28 131.18 | 0.00 0.00 Dec | 4.27 3.97 | 6.55 4.05 | 145.14 126.40 | 0.00 0.00 Jan | 4.12 . | 5.60 . | 138.89 . | 0.00 . Feb | 4.15 . | 5.64 . | 139.99 . | 0.00 . Mar | 4.26 . | 5.81 . | 139.26 . | 0.00 . Apr | 4.29 . | 5.63 . | 130.44 . | 0.00 . May | 4.24 . | 5.15 . | 128.60 . | 0.00 . ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Mid-month price for current month of the 1998/99 marketing year. 2/ Weighted average, all classes. Source: NASS & AMS, USDA. Table 6--Wheat: Exports and imports for last six months, 2/10/99 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- U.S. wheat exports, (1,000 bu.) 1998 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Item | June July August September October November ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Wheat grain | 67,372 86,605 96,664 90,507 109,168 81,913 Wheat flour | 1,971 1,740 2,027 2,914 3,812 2,354 Products | 218 396 272 344 510 237 Total | 69,562 88,740 98,963 93,765 113,490 84,505 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- U.S. wheat imports, (1,000 bu.) 1998 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Item | June July August September October November -------------|--------------------------------------------------------------- Wheat grain | 5,391 6,090 6,771 4,770 7,585 5,728 Wheat flour | 590 601 568 711 661 637 Products | 1,501 1,285 1,498 1,035 1,416 1,386 Total | 7,482 7,976 8,837 6,516 9,662 7,750 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Census. Wheat flour and products converted to wheat grain equivalent. Totals may not add due to rounding. Monthly and quarterly estimates since 1995/96 are available in ERS AutoFax Document 12181, and that document will be updated on or about 2/19/99. Table 7--Wheat: U.S. exports, Census and Export Sales comparison, 2/10/99 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- | 1996/97 | 1997/98 | 1998/99 (as of 2/4/99) |--------------------------------------------------------------- | |Ship- |Outstanding| Total | Shipments |ments | sales | ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Data | | Export | | Export | Export Source | Census | Sales |Census | Sales | Sales ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Country: | --1,000 metric tons-- Algeria | 350 | 350 | 198 | 172 | 422 0 422 China | 1,003 | 1,065 | 285 | 380 | 138 10 149 Egypt | 2,684 | 2,825 | 4,837 | 4,982 | 3,072 442 3,514 FSU | 408 | 288 | 448 | 275 | 89 0 89 Japan | 3,325 | 3,264 | 3,169 | 3,373 | 2,005 697 2,701 S. Korea | 1,544 | 1,646 | 1,446 | 1,400 | 922 282 1,204 Morocco | 443 | 421 | 516 | 597 | 145 0 145 Nigeria | 590 | 698 | 730 | 817 | 883 162 1,045 Pakistan | 2,027 | 1,973 | 2,180 | 2,232 | 844 0 844 Philippines | 1,772 | 1,876 | 1,458 | 1,531 | 1,243 247 1,490 Total grain | 26,516 | 25,964 | 27,295 | 27,518 |18,362 3,280 21,642 Total(incl) | | | | | products)1/ | 27,254 | 26,127 | 28,308 | 27,626 |18,423 3,313 21,736 USDA forecast| | | | | of Census | | | | | 27,896 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Source: U.S. Export Sales, FAS, USDA. 1/ Grain equivalent basis. END_OF_FILE