WHEAT OUTLOOK April 13, 1999 April 1999, ERS-WHS-0499 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board --------------------------------------------------------------------------- WHEAT OUTLOOK is issued eleven times a year by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. Electronic release only; no printed copies available. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- NOTE: This is the second release of WHEAT OUTLOOK (WHS-0499). It corrects an error in the South Dakota durum wheat acreage. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board WHEAT OUTLOOK is issued 11 times a year in electronic form by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. Printed copies are not available. The report is available as AutoFax document 12105. Highlights -- U.S. Prospective Wheat Plantings Are Down 4 Percent from Last Year but Durum Area Is Up 12 Percent -- Winter Wheat Crop Conditions Down from a Year Ago -- U.S. March 1 Wheat Stocks Highest Since 1987/88 -- 1998/99 World Wheat Ending Stocks Forecast Revised Up 6.7 Million Tons This Month U.S. Prospective Wheat Plantings Are Down 4 Percent from Last Year but Durum Area Is Up 12 Percent USDA released its Prospective Plantings report on March 31, 1999. Farmers were surveyed in the first 2 weeks of March to determine 1999 planting intentions. All wheat planted acreage is estimated at 63.0 million acres, down 4 percent from last year and the lowest since 1973. Winter Wheat--Winter wheat acres seeded for this year, at 43.4 million acres, are down 7 percent from 1998, but little changed from the indications in the Winter Wheat and Rye Seedings report. Of the total, about 30.9 million acres are hard red winter (HRW), 9.0 million are soft red winter (SRW), and 3.5 are white winter. Some minor, offsetting SRW area changes occurred in some States. Durum Wheat--To the surprise of most analysts, producers indicated plans to increase durum wheat acres to 4.27 million, up 12 percent from last year and the highest since 1982. The crop revenue coverage (CRC) insurance program announced for durum likely is the major reason for the higher planting intentions in the Dakotas, since price prospects are down for 1999/2000. In North Dakota, planting intentions increased 600,000 acres from 1998 and are projected at 3.6 million acres, the largest since 1981. The South Dakota durum area, pegged at 80,000 acres, is the largest in 10 years. Durum area in Montana is expected to be down 15 percent in response to lower price prospects. Arizona and California seedings continued into February. Seedings in the Imperial Valley of California progressed normally through February. Other Spring Wheat--Other spring wheat (excluding durum) intended acres are down 2 percent from 1998 to 15.4 million acres, the smallest area since 1988. About 14.5 million of the prospective acres are HRS, with the remainder white spring. Spring wheat prices are the lowest in several years. HRS area will be down about 13 percent in North Dakota, reflecting both the shift to durum wheat and the planting of alternative crops. Montana growers are intending an increase of 11 percent over 1998 to make up for the big drop in winter wheat acreage that was seeded in the fall of 1998. Other spring wheat acreage will also be up in the Pacific Northwest where white spring wheat is grown. Washington farmers are planning to seed 550,000 acres this year, up from 470,000 last year. In Oregon, the area seeded is expected to increase to 140,000 acres this year, up from 100,000 in 1998. Idaho growers are expected to seed 560,000 acres in 1999, up from 530,000 last year. Acreage seeded to this year's white winter wheat crop was lower in all three States, an indication that producers in those States may be shifting to more spring wheat in their cropping plans. Winter Wheat Crop Conditions Down from a Year Ago Both the HRW and SRW wheat crops entered this month in good condition, with no major problems reported. As of April 4, USDA's Crop Progress report indicated that 68 percent of the winter wheat crop was rated in good to excellent condition nationwide, down from 76 percent on the same date last year. Above-normal temperatures promoted early, rapid development in the Great Plains, Corn Belt, and Southeast. In parts of the northern Great Plains, crop development has been hindered by abnormally dry soils. The Kansas wheat crop was said to have sustained only minimal damage from a cold snap in late March, according to the weekly crop and weather report issued by the Kansas Agricultural Statistics Service. As of April 4, 72 percent of the Kansas crop was rated good to excellent, down from 75 percent the week before and 86 percent the previous year. However, the crop is more advanced with 36 percent of the crop jointing, compared with 17 percent in 1998 and the 5-year average of 25 percent. Winter wheat conditions in Texas are rated as 50 percent good to excellent. Seven percent of the crop was headed as of April 4, mostly in the central and southern growing areas. Oklahoma's winter wheat crop was rated 84 percent good to excellent, down slightly from 86 percent a year ago. In Nebraska, the winter wheat crop condition was rated 2 points below a year ago with 67 percent rated good to excellent. The crop was beginning to come out of dormancy with limited winterkill observed. Conditions in other States were: Colorado, 61 percent good to excellent; South Dakota, 80 percent; and Montana, 38 percent. Lack of snow cover during the winter caused 24 percent of the Montana winter wheat crop to have moderate to heavy wind damage as of April 4, and moderate to heavy freeze and drought damage affected 7 percent of the State's winter wheat crop. Many of these acres may be replanted to spring wheat. U.S. March 1 Wheat Stocks Highest Since 1987/88 The Grain Stocks report, released by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) on March 31, estimated all wheat stocks in all positions on March 1 at 1,445 million bushels, up 24 percent from March 1, 1998. Off-farm stocks were estimated at 975 million bushels, up 27 percent from March 1, 1998, while farm stocks were estimated at 470 million bushels, up 18 percent. The March 1 Grain Stocks report revealed that wheat stocks in the HRW producing States of Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas totaled 465 million bushels, the largest since 1991 and 24 percent larger than a year ago. Kansas led all States with 232 million bushels in storage. Farmers in North Dakota and Montana accounted for over half of the stocks stored on-farm on March 1, 1999. The higher-than-expected stock levels imply a small negative feed and residual use during the third quarter. Implied total wheat disappearance for the December-February quarter is estimated at 475 million bushels, down about 1 million bushels from the same period in 1997/98. The high stock levels also raise concerns about the availability of storage as the new crop harvest starts in the Southern Plains in May. U.S. 1998/99 supply and use forecasts are unchanged from last month for total wheat, but there are some changes by class of wheat. Import projections were lowered for HRW and increased for durum. Food use projections were increased for HRW, offsetting a drop in food use projections for HRS wheat. Feed and residual use for all wheat is projected at 350 million bushels for the 1998/99 marketing year. If this level is realized, feed and residual use for the fourth quarter will be positive, an outcome observed in past years when ending stocks have been large. Ending stocks for 1998/99 are projected at 955 million bushels, up 32 percent from last year's carryover and the highest since 1987/88. Third quarter estimates will be firmed up in May when wheat and product trade estimates for February and mill grind estimates for the first quarter of calender 1999 are available from the Census Bureau. 1998/99 World Wheat Ending Stocks Forecast Revised Up 6.7 Million Tons This Month Smaller changes to production, consumption, and trade in several different countries, combined this month to increase expected global 1998/99 ending stocks by 5 percent. The largest change was for India. Large government procurement and slower than expected use of government stocks through the Public Distribution System raised the stocks forecast. Forecast 1998/99 wheat consumption dropped 2 million tons, to 67 million, down from a year earlier. Even though India's 1998/99 production was revised down slightly, this was more than offset by increased beginning stocks, boosting forecast ending stocks by 2.3 million tons. It now appears likely that even though India's wheat production declined in 1998/99 compared to the previous year, ending stocks will increase slightly. The large stocks could have implications for 1999/2000 wheat trade prospects, because favorable growing conditions have increased prospects for a record harvest. In Iran, 1998/99 wheat production reported by the government was 1 million tons higher than previously forecast by USDA. The additional supply boosted forecast ending stocks, but even after the upward revision, 1998/99 ending stocks are forecast down 40 percent from the previous year. The size of Iran's wheat stocks may have important implications for 1999/2000 wheat trade because an ongoing drought across much of the Middle East extends into some important wheat growing areas of Iran. Syria in particular is suffering from drought, and based on a recent attache report, wheat consumption was revised down for several years, increasing 1998/99 forecast ending stocks by 1 million tons. Pakistan's 1998/99 forecast ending stocks were also increased 1 million tons this month. Large late-season import shipments are expected to arrive in Pakistan just before the end of the May/April local marketing year. This has caused a decrease in forecast consumption, and an offsetting increase in ending stocks. It is not surprising that Pakistan's stocks are expected to increase compared to a year ago because of record production in 1998/99. Kazakstan's ending stocks are forecast up 0.7 million tons this month. Production, consumption, and export forecasts are all down from a month ago, but the most important factor is that the export pace has been slow. Although up from last month, Kazakstan's ending stocks are still forecast down 1 million tons from a year earlier. The slow pace of exports by Canada dropped the 1998/99 export forecast by 0.5 million tons, boosting expected ending stocks by a like amount. Lower-than-expected exports also boosted prospective ending stocks for China and Poland. China is not shipping as much flour to North Korea as expected, and Poland canceled an export tender for government stocks because of low world prices. In Indonesia, increased imports--based on recent purchases by private mills--and reduced consumption increased ending stocks by almost 0.5 million tons. The aforementioned increases in forecast 1998/99 ending stocks overwhelmed a 1-million-ton decline in Australia, where aggressive selling by the Australian Wheat Board has boosted export prospects, dropping stocks. The increased 1998/99 stocks forecast this month change the underlying balance between supply and demand, boosting the global stocks-to-use ratio from 21.3 percent last month to 22.7 currently forecast for 1998/99. This is still down from 23.7 percent estimated for 1997/98, but up from 19.6 the previous year. So the world wheat supply and demand balance is still getting tighter in 1998/99, but not getting close to 1995/96 or 1996/97 when the global stocks-to-use ratio fell below 20 percent. Information Contacts: Mack N. Leath (domestic) (202)694-5302 Edward W. Allen (international) (202) 694-5288 Electronic copies available at: World Wide Web Site: www.econ.ag.gov ERS AutoFax system: (202) 694-5700 AutoFax Document Number 12105 The next electronic Wheat Outlook report will be issued on May 14, 1999. The 1999 Wheat Yearbook is now available at: 1) ERS AutoFax; Call (202) 694-5700 and select document 12100 for a complete directory of the historical tables and special articles. 2) ERS Homepage: www.econ.ag.gov/, select "Outlook Reports," then "Wheat." Other wheat publications may be obtained from the ERS "Wheat Briefing Room" at http://www.econ.ag.gov/Briefing/wheat. Table 1--Wheat: U.S. market year supply and disappearance, 4/13/99 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Item 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97R 1997/98E 1998/99P ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Area: (mil. ac.) National toal base 89.6 88.9 88.5 87.9 0.0 0.0 Eff.base/Ctr. acres 0,50/92,85 5.7 5.2 6.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 CRP base retired 10.8 10.8 10.8 10.6 10.1 9.7 Planted 72.2 70.3 69.0 75.1 70.4 65.9 Harvested 62.7 61.8 61.0 62.8 62.8 59.0 Yield: (bu/acre) 38.2 37.6 35.8 36.3 39.5 43.2 Supply: (mil. bu.) Beginning stocks 530.7 568.5 506.6 376.0 443.6 722.5 Production 2,396.4 2,321.0 2,182.7 2,277.4 2,481.5 2,550.4 Imports 1/ 108.8 91.9 67.9 92.3 94.8 95.0 Total supply 3,035.9 2,981.4 2,757.2 2,745.7 3,019.9 3,367.9 Use: Food 871.7 853.0 882.9 890.7 916.5 925.0 Seed 96.3 89.0 103.5 102.3 92.6 88.0 Feed and residual 271.7 344.5 153.7 307.6 248.0 350.0 Total domestic 1,239.7 1,286.6 1,140.1 1,300.6 1,257.0 1,363.0 Exports 1/ 1,227.8 1,188.3 1,241.1 1,001.5 1,040.4 1,050.0 Total use 2,467.4 2,474.8 2,381.2 2,302.1 2,297.4 2,413.0 Ending stocks: 568.5 506.6 376.0 443.6 722.5 954.9 Farmer-owned reserve 6.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 CCC inventory 2/ 150.0 142.0 118.0 93.0 94.0 110.0 Free stocks 412.5 364.6 258.0 350.6 628.5 844.9 Stocks-to-use ratio 23.0 20.5 15.8 19.3 31.4 39.6 Prices: ($/bu.) Target price 4.00 4.00 4.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Loan rate 2.45 2.58 2.58 2.58 2.58 2.58 Contract rate 3/ 1.03 0.61 0.00 0.87 0.63 0.66 Ave. farm price 3.26 3.45 4.55 4.30 3.38 2.65-2.75 Contract pmts. (mil. dollars) 3/ 1,904 1,146 100 1,941 1,414 1,923 Market value of production (mil. dollars) 7,812 8,007 9,787 9,782 8,287 6,886 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Source: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, WAOB, USDA. Totals may not add due to rounding. E=Estimated, P=Projected, N.A.=not applicable. 1/ Imports and exports include flour and other products expressed in wheat equivalent. 2/ Includes Food Security Reserve. 3/ Deficiency payments prior to 1996/97. Table 2.--Wheat: U.S. market year supply and disappearance, 4/13/99 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1997/98E HRW HRS SRW White Durum All wheat ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Area: Million acres Planted 34.02 18.27 9.88 4.93 3.31 70.41 Harvested 28.71 17.51 8.71 4.73 3.18 62.84 Bushels per acre Yield: 38.26 28.06 54.19 70.20 27.60 39.49 Supply: Million bushels Beg. stocks 142.9 166.0 45.0 59.0 30.7 443.6 Production 1,098.3 491.3 472.0 332.1 87.8 2,481.5 Imports 2/ 0.6 56.7 0.0 8.4 29.1 94.8 Total 1,242 714 517 399 148 3,020 Utilization: Total domestic 577.0 254.0 257.0 104.5 64.5 1,257.0 Exports 2/ 358.2 240.0 180.0 205.0 57.2 1,040.4 Total 935.2 494.0 437.0 309.5 121.8 2,297.4 Ending stocks: 306.7 220.0 80.0 90.0 25.8 722.5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1998/99P HRW HRS SRW White Durum All wheat ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Area: Million acres Planted 32.36 14.85 10.18 4.67 3.80 65.87 Harvested 27.34 14.41 9.06 4.46 3.73 59.00 Bushels per acre Yield: 43.24 33.78 48.86 66.77 37.82 43.23 Supply: Million bushels Beg. stocks 306.7 220.0 80.0 90.0 25.8 722.5 Production 1,182.1 486.8 442.6 297.8 141.1 2,550.4 Imports 2/ 1.0 52.0 0.0 9.0 33.0 95.0 Total 1,490 759 523 397 200 3,368 Utilization: Total domestic 609.6 266.8 297.6 100.8 88.2 1,363.0 Exports 2/ 435.0 250.0 100.0 225.0 40.0 1,050.0 Total 1,044.6 516.8 397.6 325.8 128.2 2,413.0 Ending stocks: 445.1 242.0 125.0 71.0 71.7 954.9 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Source: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, WAOB, USDA. Totals may not add due to rounding. E=Estimated, P=Projected. 1/ ERS estimates of area, yield, and domestic use. 2/ Imports and exports include flour and other products expressed in wheat equivalent. Table 3--Wheat: Quarterly supply and disappearance (1,000 bu.), 4/13/99 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Market Produc- Imports Supply Food Seed Feed Exports Ending Year tion 2/ 2/ stocks ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Million bushels 1996/97: Jun-Aug 2,277 15 2,668 224 9 378 334 1,724 Sep-Nov --- 21 1,745 234 60 (76) 308 1,219 Dec-Feb --- 27 1,246 213 2 30 179 822 Mar-May --- 30 852 221 32 (24) 180 444 Mkt. year 2,277 92 2,746 891 102 308 1,002 444 1997/98 E: Jun-Aug 2,481 23 2,948 228 3 352 288 2,076 Sep-Nov --- 23 2,099 239 59 (113) 296 1,619 Dec-Feb --- 24 1,643 220 2 (1) 255 1,167 Mar-May --- 26 1,192 230 29 10 201 722 Mkt. year 2,481 95 3,020 916 93 248 1,040 722 1998/99 P: Jun-Aug 2,550 24 3,297 227 1 426 257 2,385 Sep-Nov --- 24 2,409 243 55 (76) 292 1,896 Dec-Feb --- 24 1,920 223 1 (2) 253 1,445 Mkt. year 2,550 95 3,368 925 88 350 1,050 955 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Totals might not add due to rounding. E=Estimated, P=Projected. 1/ Imports and exports include flour and selected products expressed in wheat equivalent. Table 4--Wheat: Monthly food use estimates (1,000 bu.), 1998/99, 4/13/99 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1998/99 (Est.) | June July August September October November ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Mill grind 1/ + | 71,086 72,020 78,713 75,688 84,414 80,799 Food imports + | 1,914 1,886 2,064 1,744 2,076 2,020 Non-flour | food use + | 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 Food exports - | 2,189 1,968 2,297 3,151 4,056 2,524 Food use | 72,811 73,938 80,480 76,282 84,436 82,295 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- | December January February March April May ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Mill grind 1/ + | 75,842 Food imports + | 2,090 1,903 Non-flour | food use + | 2,000 2,000 Food exports - | 6,721 2,755 Food use* = | 73,210 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Census. Totals may not add due to rounding. Wheat flour and products converted to wheat grain equivalent. Non-flour food use is ERS estimate. *Monthly food use and durum food use estimates since 1990/91 are available in ERS AutoFax Document 12180. Table 5--Wheat: Farm prices and prices at selected markets ($/bu.), 4/13/99 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- | ---------------------- Farm prices ------------------------- | All wheat | Winter | Durum | Other spring Month | 97/98 98/99 | 97/98 98/99 | 97/98 98/99 | 97/98 98/99 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Jun | 3.52 2.77 | 3.42 2.68 | 4.21 3.98 | 3.74 3.22 Jul | 3.23 2.56 | 3.16 2.48 | 4.61 3.37 | 3.66 3.08 Aug | 3.56 2.39 | 3.39 2.25 | 5.23 3.25 | 3.75 2.71 Sep | 3.66 2.41 | 3.46 2 32 | 5.35 3.08 | 3.64 2.65 Oct | 3.58 2.79 | 3.42 2.66 | 5.09 3.16 | 3.49 3.12 Nov | 3.54 2.97 | 3.31 2.78 | 5.25 3.17 | 3.55 3.26 Dec | 3.44 2.87 | 3.24 2.67 | 5.16 3.14 | 3.51 3.26 Jan | 3.32 2.80 | 3.16 2.67 | 5.02 3.21 | 3.44 3.07 Feb | 3.27 2.74 | 3.16 2.56 | 4.71 2.84 | 3.34 3.10 Mar 1/| 3.33 2.74 | 3.15 2.56 | 4.68 2.86 | 3.42 3.10 Apr | 3.18 . | 2.94 . | 4.45 . | 3.41 . May | 3.06 . | 2.90 . | 4.29 . | 3.31 . | KC HRW #1 | KC HRW #1 | St. Louis | Portland | ordinary | 13% prot. | #2 SRW | #1 soft white Month | 97/98 98/99 | 97/98 98/99 | 97/98 98/99 | 97/98 98/99 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Jun | 4.08 3.16 | 4.19 3.57 | 3.46 2.66 | 4.20 2.93 Jul | 3.57 3.02 | 3.80 3.57 | 3.34 2.43 | 3.85 2.72 Aug | 3.84 2.74 | 4.11 3.12 | 3.64 2.26 | 4.10 2.66 Sep | 3.86 2.81 | 4.07 3.17 | 3.62 2.12 | 4.12 2.69 Oct | 3.88 3.30 | 4.09 3.67 | 3.58 2.23 | 3.98 3.15 Nov | 3.87 3.42 | 4.09 3.89 | 3.57 2.41 | 3.88 3.15 Dec | 3.72 3.31 | 4.01 3.74 | 3.53 2.54 | 3.79 3.12 Jan | 3.61 3.27 | 3.80 3.61 | 3.87 2.51 | 3.67 3.15 Feb | 3.64 3.05 | 3.86 3.35 | 3.32 2.33 | 3.58 3.10 Mar | 3.61 . | 3.94 . | 3.24 . | 3.56 . Apr | 3.39 . | 3.82 . | 3.05 . | 3.34 . May | 3.41 . | 3.75 . | 2.89 . | 3.28 . | Minneapolis | Minneapolis | FOB Gulf | Average EEP | DNS 14% prot. | #1 durum | $/ton (HRW) | bonus $/ton 2/ Month | 97/98 98/99 | 97/98 98/99 | 97/98 98/99 | 97/98 98/99 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Jun | 4.44 4.01 | 5.38 5.00 | 148.44 120.52 | 0.00 0.00 Jul | 4.36 3.89 | 5.93 4.59 | 139.99 117.95 | 0.00 0.00 Aug | 4.49 3.58 | 6.39 4.20 | 151.75 108.76 | 0.00 0.00 Sep | 4.36 3.53 | 6.69 3.78 | 149.91 108.03 | 0.00 0.00 Oct | 4.35 4.03 | 6.52 4.04 | 152.85 126.03 | 0.00 0.00 Nov | 4.42 4.15 | 6.38 4.15 | 150.28 131.18 | 0.00 0.00 Dec | 4.27 3.97 | 6.55 4.05 | 145.14 126.40 | 0.00 0.00 Jan | 4.12 3.92 | 5.60 3.91 | 138.89 125.29 | 0.00 0.00 Feb | 4.15 3.78 | 5.64 3.67 | 139.99 117.21 | 0.00 0.00 Mar | 4.26 . | 5.81 . | 139.26 . | 0.00 . Apr | 4.29 . | 5.63 . | 130.44 . | 0.00 . May | 4.24 . | 5.15 . | 128.60 . | 0.00 . ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Mid-month price for current month of the 1998/99 marketing year. 2/ Weighted average, all classes. Source: NASS & AMS, USDA. Table 6--Wheat: Exports and imports for last six months, 4/13/99 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- U.S. wheat exports, (1,000 bu.) 1998/99 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Item | August September October November December January ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Wheat grain | 96,664 90,507 109,168 81,913 96,486 73,017 Wheat flour | 2,027 2,914 3,812 2,354 6,472 2,551 Products | 272 344 510 237 274 260 Total | 98,963 93,765 113,490 84,505 103,233 75,828 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- U.S. wheat imports, (1,000 bu.) 1998/99 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Item | August September October November December January -------------|--------------------------------------------------------------- Wheat grain | 6,771 4,770 7,585 5,728 6,064 7,424 Wheat flour | 568 711 661 637 618 610 Products | 1,498 1,035 1,416 1,386 1,473 1,295 Total | 8,837 6,516 9,662 7,750 8,154 9,329 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Census. Wheat flour and products converted to wheat grain equivalent. Totals may not add due to rounding. Monthly and quarterly estimates since 1995/96 are available in ERS AutoFax Document 12181. Table 7--Wheat: U.S. exports, Census and Export Sales comparison, 4/13/99 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- | 1996/97 | 1997/98 | 1998/99 (as of 4/5/99) |--------------------------------------------------------------- | |Ship- |Outstanding| Total | Shipments |ments | sales | ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Data | | Export | | Export | Export Source | Census | Sales |Census | Sales | Sales ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Country: | --1,000 metric tons-- Algeria | 350 | 350 | 198 | 172 | 501 0 501 China | 1,003 | 1,065 | 285 | 380 | 150 0 150 Egypt | 2,684 | 2,825 | 4,837 | 4,982 | 3,696 808 4,504 FSU | 408 | 288 | 448 | 275 | 89 0 89 Japan | 3,325 | 3,264 | 3,169 | 3,373 | 2,588 641 3,230 S. Korea | 1,544 | 1,646 | 1,446 | 1,400 | 1,135 253 1,388 Morocco | 443 | 421 | 516 | 597 | 145 0 145 Nigeria | 590 | 698 | 730 | 817 | 1,075 147 1,222 Pakistan | 2,027 | 1,973 | 2,180 | 2,232 | 844 0 844 Philippines | 1,772 | 1,876 | 1,458 | 1,531 | 1,485 223 1,707 Total grain | 26,516 | 25,964 | 27,295 | 27,518 |21,646 3,455 25,101 Total(incl) | | | | | products)1/ | 27,254 | 26,127 | 28,308 | 27,626 |22,316 3,538 25,854 USDA forecast| | | | | of Census | | | | | 28,576 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Source: U.S. Export Sales, FAS, USDA. 1/ Grain equivalent basis. END_OF_FILE