WHEAT OUTLOOK June 15, 1999 June 1999, WHS-0699 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board --------------------------------------------------------------------------- WHEAT OUTLOOK is issued 11 times a year by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. Electronic release only; no published copies are available. WHEAT OUTLOOK is supplemented by an annual WHEAT YEARBOOK. The yearbook summary for 1999 was released on March 26, 1999. Yearbooks are available in print from ERS-NASS Order Desk. For the 1999 issue, call 1-800-999-6779 (703-605-6220) and ask for stock #ERS-WHS-1999, $21. The report is available as AutoFax document 12105. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Highlights -- The 1999/2000 Outlook Calls for Lower Ending Stocks -- U.S. Winter Wheat Production Forecast Is Down 3 Million Bushels in June -- Weather Hampers Winter Wheat Harvest and Delays Spring Wheat Plantings -- The 1998/99 Balance Sheet Is Unchanged from Last Month -- World Wheat Trade in 1998/99 Forecast Up 2.5 Million Tons This Month -- Middle East and North Africa Suffering One of the Worst Droughts in Decades -- Global Production and Consumption Projections for 1999/2000 Reduced ----------------------------------------------------------------- The 1999/2000 Outlook Calls for Lower Ending Stocks The outlook for U.S. wheat in 1999/2000 is little changed from last month. U.S. production is projected down 3 million bushels because of lower harvested area. Projected domestic use and exports are unchanged from last month, leaving 1999/2000 ending stocks down 3 million bushels. The projected farm price range is unchanged from last month at $2.60 to $3.10 per bushel in 1999/2000, compared to a $2.65 estimate for 1998/99. U.S. Winter Wheat Production Forecast Is Down 3 Million Bushels in June Winter Wheat--USDA forecasts 1999 U.S. winter wheat production at 1,612 million bushels, down slightly from last month and 14 percent below 1998. The smaller output reflects lower harvested acreage. Harvested area totals 36.0 million acres, down 10 percent from 1998 and 300,000 below the May forecast because of storm damage in Kansas. Based on conditions as of June 1, the U.S. winter wheat yield is forecast at 44.7 bushels per acre, up slightly from last month. While the forecast yield is down 2.2 bushels from last year's record, it is the second highest on record. Winter Wheat by Class--Production of all classes of winter wheat is forecast down from last year with hard red winter (HRW) wheat showing the largest absolute decline--201 million bushels. HRW production is projected to total 981 million bushels, down 8 million from last month and 17 percent below 1998. Harvested acreage for HRW is estimated to total 24.8 million acres, and average yield is pegged at 39.6 bushels per acre. Production of soft red winter (SRW) wheat is projected at 419 million bushels this year, up 8 million from last month but 5 percent below last year. Harvested acreage for SRW is estimated to total 8.0 million acres, and average yield is pegged at 52.4 bushels per acre. Soft white winter (SWW) wheat production is projected at 211 million bushels in 1999, down 4 million from last month and the lowest since 1991. Harvested acreage for SWW is estimated to total 3.3 million acres, and average yield is pegged at 63.9 bushels per acre. Weather Hampers Winter Wheat Harvest and Delays Spring Wheat Plantings Winter Wheat--A mild winter followed by generally favorable spring weather has pushed crop development slightly ahead of average. An average of 88 percent of the crop was headed as of June 6, compared with the 5-year average of 86 percent. The HRW crop survived the winter well, but above average spring precipitation in the southern Plains has hampered harvest at many locations. Excessive rainfall has also raised concerns about disease problems and lower protein levels. Harvest progress is lagging behind last year's pace in Oklahoma and Texas. Nationwide, 5 percent of the winter wheat crop had been harvested as of June 6, the same as the 5-year average. In Kansas, the largest wheat producing State, the crop is projected to total 396 million bushels, down 13 million from last month and almost 100 million below a year earlier. The forecast harvested area is down 300,000 acres while the forecast yield of 43 bushels per acre is unchanged. Yield projections for SRW in the Corn Belt States improved during May. In contrast, the condition of the soft white wheat (SWW) crop in the Pacific Northwest continues to deteriorate because of dryness in Oregon and unusually cool conditions in Washington. The winter wheat yield projection is down 1 bushel per acre from last month in Oregon and off 2 bushels in Washington. Other Spring Wheat--As of June 6, 92 percent of the spring wheat crop (excluding durum) was seeded, down from 100 percent in 1998, and below the 5-year average of 96 percent. Emergence was also behind schedule at 80 percent, down from 97 percent a year ago and below the average of 83 percent. Durum Wheat--Planting delays in the northern Plains caused by excessive precipitation are raising concerns about whether producers will be able to plant all their intended acreage. North Dakota, the only State reporting planting progress for durum wheat, reported that only 72 percent of the durum wheat was planted as of June 6, compared with 99 percent in 1998 and a 92- percent average. USDA's Acreage report to be released on June 30 will show acres planted and intended to be harvested for 1999. The 1998/99 Balance Sheet Is Unchanged from Last Month U.S. ending stocks for 1998/99 are unchanged from the May estimate of 969 million bushels. The 1998/99 balance sheet will undergo revisions next month when USDA releases the June 30 Grain Stocks report. The Bureau of the Census' Flour Milling Report [MQ20A(99-02)] for the second calender quarter (April-June) of 1999 will be released in early August. The food use estimate will be revised at that time using data from that report and trade data on imports and exports for April and May that will be released later this month and in July. World Wheat Trade in 1998/99 Forecast Up 2.5 Million Tons This Month The strong pace of wheat exports by Argentina, Ukraine, and Hungary more than offset slower-than-expected shipments by Canada during recent months. Ukraine's 1998/99 exports were boosted 1.1 million tons. Similarly, exports by Hungary were up 1.2 million tons because of strong shipments to the EU, neighboring Eastern European countries, and North Africa. Forecast 1998/99 exports by Argentina were revised up 0.5 million tons with especially large recent shipments to Brazil. The 1998/99 import forecasts for Brazil, Morocco, Turkey, the EU, Eastern Europe, Indonesia, and Nigeria were boosted this month. These revisions increased world trade because they more than offset a 0.5-million ton decline in imports by China. World wheat trade in 1998/99 is now forecast to reach 97.9 million tons, down less than 3 percent from the previous year, whereas as recently as April, wheat trade was expected to fall almost 6 percent to less than 95.0 million tons. Most of the year-to-year decline in world wheat trade can be attributed to reduced imports by North Africa, the Middle East, Indonesia, and China. Increased production in North Africa and the Middle East had a dampening effect on import demand in 1998/99, but this is in stark contrast to prospects for 1999/2000. Middle East and North Africa Suffering One of the Worst Droughts in Decades In 1999, a number of countries in the Middle East/North Africa region are suffering one of the worst droughts in decades. The drought has affected Morocco, where record grain imports are forecast. It has reduced grain crops in Israel, Jordan, Syria, Iraq, Iran, and Turkey. The impact in Jordan is so severe that emergency food aid has been called for by the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization. Water consumption has been cut drastically, and Jordan is now receiving supplementary water from Syria. The Jordanian wheat crop, which normally supplies 10 percent of the nation's needs, is expected to be less than half last year's 55,000 tons. Imports are forecast up 14 percent from 1998 to a record 800,000 tons. The Iranian wheat harvest is forecast at 9.5 million tons for 1999, down from an estimated 12 million tons in 1998. This means that Iran's wheat imports are likely to rise to 5.5 million tons in 1999/2000, up from 3 million in 1998/1999. Iran has some 3.9 million hectares of dryland wheat. Western Iran's wheat producing area has received only about 25 percent of its normal rainfall since September 1998, far less than the above normal amounts received a year earlier. The wheat crop in Turkey, at first unaffected, has now also suffered from dryness. Early forecasts of a second record 18.5 million ton crop have now been scaled back to 17.5 million. It is likely that the lower crop will reduce exports, but not have a significant effect on imports of high quality wheat for blending. Iraq's agriculture has also been affected by the drought. Recent reports point to increased pest infestation, lack of fertilizers, agricultural machinery, seed, and herbicides or the means of spraying them. Pessimistic forecasts expect a decrease in agricultural yield this year of 80 percent. Iraq's wheat production is forecast down to 1 million tons, compared with an estimated 1.3 million in 1998. Israel's wheat crop, never large, will be smaller this year, and imports, mostly from the United States, could approach 1.2 million tons, about 13 percent above the 1996-98 average of 1.06 million tons. In Syria, worsening drought conditions have significantly reduced the wheat and barley harvests. The wheat harvest is estimated at 2.5 million tons, down 40 percent from 1998. The barley crop is estimated down two-thirds from last year. While domestic consumption of wheat is 3.0 million tons, large carryin stocks will be drawn down to offset the gap. Morocco has been devastated by another drought, the fifth in this decade. Production of wheat is forecast at 2 million tons, down from 4.4 million in 1998. Imports are estimated at 2.5 million tons, nearly 40 percent above a year earlier. Consumption is forecast at 5.7 million tons and stocks are expected to be drawn down more than half to around 1.4 million tons. Partly because of drought in the Middle East and North Africa, world wheat trade in 1999/2000 is expected to rebound to 100.7 million tons, about the same level as estimated for 1997/98. World wheat trade in 1999/2000 is also expected to be boosted by increasing imports by China, from a historical low of 1.0 million in 1998/99. However, world import growth is expected to be limited by reduced imports in South Asia, with bumper crops in India and Pakistan, and declining imports by Brazil because of a larger crop. Even though Brazil's 1999/2000 wheat import forecast was raised by 0.5 million tons this month, it is down more than 1 million tons from the previous year's pace. Global Production and Consumption Projections For 1999/2000 Reduced World wheat production in 1999/2000 is forecast at 570 million tons, down 2.3 million from last month. Cold weather damaged spring wheat in Russia and the Ukraine, reducing their combined production prospects by 1.5 million tons. Cold wet weather has seriously delayed wheat planting in Canada, and some wheat area that producers intended to plant to wheat may not get planted. Canada's 1999/2000 production forecast was reduced by 1.5 million tons this month. These declines, and a reduced production forecast for Turkey were partly offset by improving prospects for Pakistan and the EU. Projected world wheat consumption in 1999/2000 was reduced 2.0 million tons this month, with most of the decline in the former Soviet Union. There are lower production prospects, a continuing strong pace of exports by Ukraine (internal wheat prices remain below world prices, making export for hard currency attractive), and no rebound in animal numbers to boost internal demand for feed wheat. World wheat consumption in 1999/2000 is now projected to be about the same as a year earlier. ----------------------------------------------------------------- Information Contacts: Mack N. Leath (Domestic) (202) 694-5302 Edward W. Allen (International) (202) 694-5288 Michael Kurtzig (Africa/Middle East) (202) 694-5152 Electronic copies available at: World Wide Web Site www.econ.ag.gov ERS AutoFax system (202) 694-5700 Document Number 12105 The next electronic Wheat Outlook report will be issued on July 14, 1999. The 1998 Wheat Yearbook is now available at: 1) ERS AutoFax; Call (202) 694-5700 and select document 12100 for a complete directory of the historical tables and special articles. 2) ERS Homepage: www.econ.ag.gov/, select "Products and Services," then "Publications," "Field Crops," and "Wheat." Other wheat publications may be obtained from the ERS "Wheat Briefing Room" at http://www.econ.ag.gov/Briefing/wheat. ----------------------------------------------------------------- Table 1--Wheat: U.S. market year supply and disappearance, 6/15/99 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Item 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99E 1999/00P ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Area: (mil. ac.) National total base 88.9 88.5 87.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 Eff. base/Ctr. acres/ 0,50/92,85 5.2 6.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 CRP base retired 10.8 10.8 10.6 10.1 9.7 0.0 Planted 70.3 69.0 75.1 70.4 65.9 63.0 Harvested 61.8 61.0 62.8 62.8 59.0 55.1 Yield: (bu/acre) 37.6 35.8 36.3 39.5 43.2 40.7 Supply: (mil. bu.) Beginning stocks 568.5 506.6 376.0 443.6 722.5 968.8 Production 2,321.0 2,182.7 2,277.4 2,481.5 2,550.4 2,241.6 Imports 1/ 91.9 67.9 92.3 94.9 98.0 95.0 Total supply 2,981.4 2,757.2 2,745.7 3,020.0 3,370.9 3,305.4 Use: Food 853.0 882.9 890.7 916.6 915.0 925.0 Seed 89.0 103.5 102.3 92.6 87.1 90.0 Feed and residual 344.5 153.7 307.6 248.0 350.0 275.0 Total domestic 1,286.6 1,140.1 1,300.6 1,257.1 1,352.1 1,290.0 Exports 1/ 1,188.3 1,241.1 1,001.5 1,040.4 1,050.0 1,150.0 Total use 2,474.8 2,381.2 2,302.1 2,297.5 2,402.1 2,440.0 Ending stocks: 506.6 376.0 443.6 722.5 968.8 865.4 Farmer-owned reserve 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 CCC inventory 2/ 142.0 118.0 93.0 94.0 110.0 100.0 Free stocks 364.6 258.0 350.6 628.5 858.8 765.4 Stocks-to-use ratio 20.5 15.8 19.3 31.4 40.3 35.5 Prices: ($/bu.) Target price 4.00 4.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Loan rate 2.58 2.58 2.58 2.58 2.58 2.58 Contract rate 3/ 0.61 0.00 0.87 0.63 0.66 0.64 Ave. farm price 3.45 4.55 4.30 3.38 2.65 2.60-3.10 Contract payments (mil. dollars) 3/ 1,146 100 1,941 1,414 1,923 =1,565 Market value of production (mil. dollars) 8,007 9,787 9,782 8,387 6,759 6,389 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Source: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, WAOB, USDA. Totals may not add due to rounding. E=Estimated, P=Projected. 1/ Imports and exports include flour and other products expressed in wheat equivalent. 2/ Includes Food Security Reserve. 3/ Deficiency payments prior to 1996/97. Table 2--Wheat Classes: U.S. marketing year supply and disappearance, 6/15/99 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1997/98E HRW HRS SRW White Durum All wheat --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Area: 1/ Million acres Planted 34.02 18.27 9.88 4.93 3.31 70.41 Harvested 28.71 17.51 8.71 4.73 3.18 62.84 Bushels per acre Yield: 1/ 38.26 28.06 54.19 70.20 27.60 39.49 Supply: Million bushels Beg. stocks 142.9 166.0 45.0 59.0 30.7 443.6 Production 1,098.3 491.3 472.0 332.1 87.8 2,481.5 Imports 2/ 0.6 56.7 0.0 8.4 29.1 94.8 Total 1,241.8 714.0 517.0 399.5 147.6 3,029.9 Utilization: Total domestic 1/ 577.0 254.0 257.0 104.5 64.5 1,257.0 Exports 2/ 358.2 240.0 180.0 205.0 57.2 1,040.4 Total 935.2 494.0 437.0 309.5 121.8 2,297.4 Ending stocks: 306.7 220.0 80.0 90.0 25.8 722.5 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1998/99P HRW HRS SRW White Durum All wheat --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Area: 1/ Million acres Planted 32.36 14.85 10.18 4.67 3.80 65.87 Harvested 27.34 14.41 9.06 4.46 3.73 59.00 Bushels per acre Yield: 1/ 43.24 33.78 48.86 66.77 37.82 43.23 Supply: Million bushels Beg. stocks 306.7 220.0 80.0 90.0 25.8 722.5 Production 1,182.1 486.8 442.6 297.8 141.1 2,550.4 Imports 2/ 1.0 55.0 0.0 9.0 33.0 98.0 Total 1,489.8 761.8 522.6 396.8 199.9 3,370.9 Utilization: Total domestic 1/ 607.6 261.8 297.6 97.9 87.2 1,352.1 Exports 2/ 435.0 250.0 100.0 225.0 40.0 1,050.0 Total 1,042.6 511.8 397.6 322.9 127.2 2,402.1 Ending stocks: 447.1 250.0 125.1 73.9 72.7 968.8 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Source: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, WAOB, USDA. Totals may not add due to rounding. E=Estimated, P=Projected. 1/ ERS estimates of area, yield, and domestic use. 2/ Imports and exports include flour and other products expressed in wheat equivalent. Table 3--Wheat: Quarterly supply and disappearance, 6/15/99 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Market Produc- Imports Supply Food Seed Feed Exports Ending Year tion 1/ 1/ stocks --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Million bushels 1996/97: Jun-Aug 2,277 15 2,668 224 9 378 334 1,724 Sep-Nov --- 21 1,745 234 60 (76) 308 1,219 Dec-Feb --- 27 1,246 213 2 30 179 822 Mar-May --- 30 852 221 32 (24) 180 444 Mkt. year 2,277 92 2,746 891 102 308 1,002 444 1997/98 E: Jun-Aug 2,481 23 2,948 228 3 352 288 2,076 Sep-Nov --- 23 2,099 239 59 (113) 296 1,619 Dec-Feb --- 24 1,643 220 2 (1) 255 1,167 Mar-May --- 26 1,192 230 29 10 201 722 Mkt. year 2,481 95 3,020 917 93 248 1,040 722 1998/99 P: Jun-Aug 2,550 24 3,297 227 1 426 257 2,385 Sep-Nov --- 24 2,409 243 55 (76) 292 1,896 Dec-Feb --- 28 1,923 214 1 17 246 1,445 Mar-May --- 22 1,467 231 30 (17) 255 969 Mkt. year 2,550 98 3,371 915 87 350 1,050 969 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Totals might not add due to rounding. E=Estimated, P=Projected. 1/Imports and exports include flour and selected products expressed in wheat equivalent. Table 4--Wheat: Monthly food use estimates (1,000 bu.), 1998/99, 6/15/99 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1998/99 (Est.) | June July August September October November -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Mill grind 1/ + | 71,086 72,020 78,713 75,688 84,414 80,799 Food imports + | 1,914 1,886 2,064 1,744 2,076 2,020 Non-flour | food use 2/ + | 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 Food exports - | 2,189 1,968 2,297 3,151 4,056 2,524 Food use | 72,811 73,938 80,480 76,282 84,436 82,295 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- | December January February March April May -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Mill grind 1/ + | 75,842 69,869 69,314 73,539 Food imports + | 2,090 1,903 1,766 1,945 Non-flour | food use 2/ + | 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 Food exports - | 6,721 2,755 3,535 4,323 Food use* = | 73,210 71,017 69,545 73,160 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Census. Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Wheat flour and products converted to wheat grain equivalent. 2/ Non-flour food use is ERS estimate. *Monthly food use and durum food use estimates since 1990/91 are available in ERS AutoFax Document 12180, and electronically at www.econ.ag.gov/briefing/wheat/data. Table 5--Wheat: Farm prices and prices at selected markets ($/bu.), 6/15/99 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- | ---------------------- Farm prices ------------------------- | All wheat | Winter | Durum | Other spring Month | 97/98 98/99 | 97/98 98/99 | 97/98 98/99 | 97/98 98/99 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Jun | 3.52 2.77 | 3.42 2.68 | 4.20 3.98 | 3.74 3.22 Jul | 3.23 2.56 | 3.16 2.48 | 4.61 3.37 | 3.66 3.08 Aug | 3.56 2.39 | 3.39 2.25 | 5.23 3.25 | 3.75 2.71 Sep | 3.66 2.41 | 3.46 2 32 | 5.35 3.08 | 3.64 2.65 Oct | 3.58 2.79 | 3.42 2.66 | 5.14 3.16 | 3.49 3.12 Nov | 3.54 2.97 | 3.31 2.78 | 5.29 3.17 | 3.55 3.26 Dec | 3.44 2.87 | 3.24 2.67 | 5.16 3.14 | 3.51 3.26 Jan | 3.32 2.80 | 3.16 2.67 | 5.02 3.21 | 3.44 3.07 Feb | 3.27 2.74 | 3.16 2.56 | 4.69 2.84 | 3.34 3.10 Mar | 3.33 2.65 | 3.15 2.53 | 4.70 2.81 | 3.42 3.01 Apr 1/| 3.18 2.62 | 2.94 2.48 | 4.60 2.80 | 3.37 2.95 May 1/| 3.06 2.58 | 2.90 2.42 | 4.28 2.77 | 3.31 2.94 | KC HRW #1 | KC HRW #1 | St. Louis | Portland | ordinary | 13% prot. | #2 SRW | #1 soft white Month | 97/98 98/99 | 97/98 98/99 | 97/98 98/99 | 97/98 98/99 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Jun | 4.08 3.16 | 4.19 3.57 | 3.46 2.66 | 4.20 2.93 Jul | 3.57 3.02 | 3.80 3.57 | 3.34 2.43 | 3.85 2.72 Aug | 3.84 2.74 | 4.11 3.12 | 3.64 2.26 | 4.10 2.66 Sep | 3.86 2.81 | 4.07 3.17 | 3.62 2.12 | 4.12 2.69 Oct | 3.88 3.30 | 4.09 3.67 | 3.58 2.23 | 3.98 3.15 Nov | 3.87 3.42 | 4.09 3.89 | 3.57 2.41 | 3.88 3.15 Dec | 3.72 3.31 | 4.01 3.74 | 3.53 2.54 | 3.79 3.12 Jan | 3.61 3.27 | 3.80 3.61 | 3.87 2.51 | 3.67 3.15 Feb | 3.64 3.05 | 3.86 3.35 | 3.32 2.33 | 3.58 3.10 Mar | 3.61 3.02 | 3.94 3.34 | 3.24 2.44 | 3.56 3.22 Apr | 3.39 2.94 | 3.82 3.34 | 3.05 2.44 | 3.34 3.23 May | 3.41 . | 3.75 . | 2.89 . | 3.28 . | Minneapolis | Minneapolis | FOB Gulf | Average EEP | DNS 14% prot. | #1 durum | $/ton (HRW) | bonus $/ton 2/ Month | 97/98 98/99 | 97/98 98/99 | 97/98 98/99 | 97/98 98/99 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Jun | 4.44 4.01 | 5.38 5.00 | 148.44 120.52 | 0.00 0.00 Jul | 4.36 3.89 | 5.93 4.59 | 139.99 117.95 | 0.00 0.00 Aug | 4.49 3.58 | 6.39 4.20 | 151.75 108.76 | 0.00 0.00 Sep | 4.36 3.53 | 6.69 3.78 | 149.91 108.03 | 0.00 0.00 Oct | 4.35 4.03 | 6.52 4.04 | 152.85 126.03 | 0.00 0.00 Nov | 4.42 4.15 | 6.38 4.15 | 150.28 131.18 | 0.00 0.00 Dec | 4.27 3.97 | 6.55 4.05 | 145.14 126.40 | 0.00 0.00 Jan | 4.12 3.92 | 5.60 3.91 | 138.89 125.29 | 0.00 0.00 Feb | 4.15 3.78 | 5.64 3.67 | 139.99 117.21 | 0.00 0.00 Mar | 4.26 3.79 | 5.81 3.65 | 139.26 117.21 | 0.00 0.00 Apr | 4.29 3.65 | 5.63 3.61 | 130.44 113.90 | 0.00 0.00 May | 4.24 . | 5.15 . | 128.60 . | 0.00 . --------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Mid-month price for current month of the 1998/99 marketing year. 2/ Weighted average, all classes. Source: NASS & AMS, USDA. Table 6--Wheat: Exports and imports for last 6 months, 6/15/99 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- U.S. wheat exports, (1,000 bu.) 1998/99 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Item 1/ | October November December January February March --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Wheat grain | 109,168 81,913 96,486 73,017 63,794 65,522 Wheat flour | 3,812 2,354 6,472 2,551 3,341 4,126 Products | 510 237 274 260 271 271 Total | 113,490 84,505 103,233 75,828 67,406 69,919 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- U.S. wheat imports, (1,000 bu.) 1998/99 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Item 1/ | October November December January February March -----------|--------------------------------------------------------------- Wheat grain | 7,585 5,728 6,064 7,702 8,199 6,929 Wheat flour | 661 637 618 718 667 739 Products | 1,416 1,386 1,473 1,283 1,180 1,208 Total | 9,662 7,750 8,154 9,702 10,046 8,876 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Census. 1/ Wheat flour and products converted to wheat grain equivalent. Totals may not add due to rounding. Monthly and quarterly estimates since 1995/96 are available in ERS AutoFax Document 12181, and electronically at www.econ.ag.gov/briefing/wheat/data. Table 7--Wheat: U.S. exports, Census and Export Sales comparison, 6/15/99 1/ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- | 1997/98 | 1998/99 | 1999/2000 (as of 6/3/99) |--------------------------------------------------------------- | |Ship- |Outstanding| Total | Shipments |ments | sales | --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Data | | Export | | Export | Export Source | Census | sales |Census | sales | Sales --------------------------------------------------------------------------- | --1,000 metric tons-- Country: | Egypt | 4,837 | 4,982 | N.A. | 4,397 | 121 163 284 EU | 1,265 | 1,298 | N.A. | 1,407 | 28 196 225 Israel | 830 | 786 | N.A. | 734 | 0 123 123 Japan | 3,169 | 3,373 | N.A. | 3,201 | 14 437 450 S. Korea | 1,446 | 1,400 | N.A. | 1,366 | 0 273 273 Mexico | 1,156 | 1,151 | N.A. | 1,860 | 7 237 245 Nigeria | 730 | 817 | N.A. | 1,300 | 11 79 90 Pakistan | 2,180 | 2,232 | N.A. | 844 | 0 0 0 Philippines | 1,458 | 1,531 | N.A. | 1,749 | 39 233 272 Taiwan | 1,003 | 975 | N.A. | 920 | 0 158 158 Total grain | 27,295 | 27,518 | N.A. | 25,555 | 227 3,094 3,321 Total(incl) | | | | | products)1/| 28,308 | 27,626 | N.A. | 25,648 | 227 3,104 3,330 USDA forecast| | | | | of Census| | | 28,577 | | 31,298 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/Export sales and shipments from USDA's monthly U.S. Export Sales report. N.A.=not available END_OF_FILE