WHEAT OUTLOOK August 16, 1999 August 1999, WHS-0899 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board --------------------------------------------------------------------------- WHEAT OUTLOOK is issued 11 times a year by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. Electronic release only; no published copies are available. WHEAT OUTLOOK is supplemented by an annual WHEAT YEARBOOK. The yearbook summary for 1999 was released on March 26, 1999. Yearbooks are available in print from ERS-NASS Order Desk. For the 1999 issue, call 1-800-999-6779 (703-605-6220) and ask for stock #ERS-WHS-1999, $21. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Highlights -- U.S. Wheat Production Prospects Down in August -- Protein and Test Weight Down for Kansas Wheat -- Price Projection Unchanged in August -- Domestic Use is Up as an Increase in Feed and Residual Use Offsets a Decline in Projected Food Use -- Foreign Wheat Stocks Forecast for 1999/2000 Revised Up this Month -- World Trade Forecast Changes for 1999/2000 Are Mostly Offsetting -- New ERS Report Examines Price Determination for Corn and Wheat SPECIAL ARTICLE: Per Capita Flour Consumption Declines Sharply in 1998 U.S. Wheat Production Prospects Down in August Total U.S. production is projected at 2,315 million bushels, down 18 million bushels from last month. The decline reflects an acreage adjustment for durum wheat in North Dakota and declines in forecast yields for durum and other spring wheats. The yield declines in durum and other spring wheats are partially offset by an increase in projected yield for winter wheat. Total wheat supply is projected at 3,364 million bushels, down 14 million from last month, but still the second highest supply since 1987/88. U.S. winter wheat production prospects for 1999 increased during July as yield prospects improved in many U.S. hard red winter (HRW) wheat and soft red winter (SRW) wheat producing States. The yield projection of 47.4 bushels per acre for winter wheat sets a new record, exceeding the 1998 record by one-half a bushel per harvested acre. Protein and Test Weight Down for Kansas Wheat The Kansas Department of Agriculture has issued quality reports for for Kansas wheat throughout the harvest season. As of the latest update on July 30, a special press release reported that protein and test weight in Kansas wheat are down in 1999. Preliminary data from 9,386 carlot samples from 61 counties show an average test weight of 60.2 pounds per bushel, compared with last year's average of 61.5 pounds and a 10-year average from 1988-97 of 59.9 pounds. The drop in test weight will affect milling efficiency (throughput), but it should have a minimal impact on flour quality. Protein is averaging 11.3 percent in 1999, compared with 11.5 percent for 1998, and a 10-year average of 12.4 percent. This decline will raise premiums paid for carlots of HRW and hard red spring (HRS) with higher levels of protein. Millers are expected to blend higher percentages of high-protein HRS with the lower protein HRW class in the mill stream to produce flours of the desired protein level. Price Projection Unchanged in August Wheat prices have been under significant pressure as favorable yields have boosted production prospects for winter wheats. Even though 1999 production is projected down, the large supplies will keep pressuring cash and futures prices during the summer months. The price received by farmers in June 1999 averaged $2.50 per bushel, 27 cents below June 1998, and the preliminary mid-month estimate for July is $2.15 per bushel. The summer months normally account for the heaviest marketings, and these early season prices will weigh heavily on the season average price received by farmers for the entire marketing season. The Loan Deficiency Payment (LDP) rate for wheat is significantly higher than last year. As of Friday, August 13, the average rate paid on wheat was 51.9 cents per bushel, compared with an average of 29.3 cents for the entire 1998/99 marketing year. Payments issued totaled $515 million covering 991 million bushels from the 1999 crop. This is another indication that farm prices are below last season at this point in time. Prices received by farmers are expected to increase in the coming months, but strong prices will be needed to offset the poor start of the 1999/2000 marketing season. The U.S. season average farm price is expected rise up only marginally from the estimated $2.65 per bushel in 1998/99. This month's 1999/2000 projected price range is unchanged from last month at $2.45-$2.95 per bushel because of large ending stocks and lower than expected early-season prices. Unlike last season, when the average price received by farmers peaked in November, monthly-average prices received by farmers are expected to follow a more normal seasonal pattern in 1999/2000, hitting seasonal lows during harvest (June through August), then increasing to reflect carrying charges. In the coming months, the wheat price will not only be influenced by large U.S. and global wheat supplies, but also by weather patterns in the Corn Belt States that affect the corn and soybean crops. Domestic Use is Up as an Increase in Feed and Residual Use Offsets a Decline in Projected Food Use Domestic feed and residual use is projected to total 325 million bushels this season, up 25 million from last month, as low July prices in production regions make wheat-feeding more attractive. However, low corn prices during the summer months will keep a lid on wheat feeding this year. Projected food use in 1999/2000 is lowered 10 million bushels from last month following an unexpected decline in food use in 1998/99 (see special article on flour consumption). The export projection is unchanged from last month. Ending stocks are forecast to decline to 884 million bushels, down 29 million from last month and 61 million below the June 1, 1999 carryover. Even with the reduction, the projected carryover will be the second highest since 1990/91. Wheat by Class Hard Red Winter Wheat--Hard red winter (HRW) wheat production prospects continued to improve during July, with increases in projected yields for Colorado and South Dakota. These gains were offset somewhat by a lower yield in Montana. Total HRW output is forecast at 1,042 million bushels, 11 million above the July forecast but down about 140 million from 1998/99. HRW use is projected to total 1,096 million bushels in 1999/2000, accounting for about 44 percent of total U.S. wheat use. Soft Red Winter Wheat--Soft red winter (SRW) wheat production is forecast at 451 million bushels in 1999, up 8 million bushels from last month. The most dramatic increase occurred in Michigan, where yield increased a remarkable 9 bushels per acre this month. Yields are also up in Indiana, North Carolina, and Ohio. Quality is reported to be excellent in the Corn Belt States. SRW production is forecast to account for about 19 percent of the U.S. wheat crop in 1999. Total use is projected at 448 million bushels in 1999/2000, about 18 percent of total wheat use. White Winter Wheat--White winter (WW) wheat production is pegged at 196 million bushels, down 3 million bushels from last month and 23 percent below 1998 due to fewer acres and a lower average yield. Washington, Oregon, Idaho, and Michigan account for most of WW production. Yield in Michigan is projected up 13 bushels compared with 1998 while yields in the Pacific Northwest will be down dramatically, particularly in Oregon (down 18 bushels from last year) where drought conditions have taken a toll. Yield in Washington is down 7 bushels from last year. Yield in Oregon is down 2 bushels from last month. Other Spring Wheat--Based on August 1 conditions, the other spring wheat (i.e., excluding durum) crop is forecast at 512 million bushels in 1999, down 15 million bushels from last month and down 17 million bushels from 1998. Production of HRS wheat is expected to decline 27 million bushels from last year, although the decline will be partially offset by a 10 million bushel increase in white spring (WS) production this year. Currently, other spring wheat yield is forecast at 34.2 bushels per acre, down 1.1 bushels from last month. Durum Wheat--According to the June 30 Acreage report, farmers had either planted or intended to plant 4.2 million acres of durum wheat this spring and planed to harvest 4.0 million acres. The National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) revisited selected North Dakota operations that had not completed planting at the time of the June interview to verify planted acreage and harvest intentions. Area planted in North Dakota is now pegged at 3.4 million acres, and the national total is estimated at 4.0 million acres. Acreage intended for harvest is now pegged at 3.9 million acres, 150,000 less than last month. Based on August 1 conditions, U.S. production of durum wheat in the United States is forecast to total 114 million bushels, down 18 million from last month and 19 percent below 1998. This reduction will reduce carryover from last month's projection by 15 million bushels, but projected ending stocks of 77 million bushels will keep the pressure on durum prices in 1999/2000. The 1999/2000 durum outlook will be reviewed in a special Commodity Brief in the September 1999 issue of Agricultural Outlook. Foreign Wheat Stocks Forecast for 1999/2000 Revised Up this Month Foreign ending stocks in 1999/2000 are forecast at 101 million tons, up 2.4 million tons from last month. Increased production, larger beginning stocks, and reduced consumption contributed to boost stocks this month. China's wheat stocks forecast increased because production is up 3 million tons, and beginning stocks increased slightly. Production was increased because preliminary summer grains harvest data released by China's government was larger than expected. Evidently the dry conditions for germination and overwintering did not hurt winter wheat as much as previously thought. Beginning stocks increased slightly because preliminary trade data indicate that less than expected was exported in 1998/99. Larger wheat supplies for 1999/2000 contributed to lower forecast imports and larger stocks this month. However, China's 1999/2000 ending stocks are still expected to be 1 million tons lower than the previous year because consumption is still expected to be larger than production. Wheat stocks in North Africa are forecast up 0.8 million tons from a month ago because a greater than expected pace of imports in 1998/99 for Morocco, Algeria, and Tunisia boosted 1999/2000 beginning stocks. A small increase in Morocco's production and prospects for a continued strong pace of imports in Algeria and Morocco also boosted supplies. Reduced export prospects for Hungary boosted Eastern Europe's forecast 1999/2000 ending stocks by 250,000 tons. Although production prospects deteriorated in the former Soviet Union and consumption and exports were reduced, ending stocks were unchanged this month because they are already at minimal levels. The increased stocks prospects noted above are partly offset by a forecast decrease of 1 million tons in the European Union (EU) because of lower production prospects reported for Italy and Germany. Despite this month's upward revision in 1999/2000 foreign wheat ending stocks, global wheat stocks are still expected to drop 11.7 million tons from a year ago. Global stocks are expected to be the equivalent of 21.3 percent of consumption in 1999/2000, down from 23.2 percent a year earlier. World Trade Forecast Changes for 1999/2000 Are Mostly Offsetting World trade for 1999/2000 remains forecast at 100.4 million tons because reduced prospects for imports by China and Russia were offset by increased imports expected in Brazil and several other countries. Preliminary trade data for 1998/99 boosted estimated imports by a number of countries and boosted the estimate of world trade by 1.0 million tons to 100.0 million. The increased pace of imports in 1998/99 is expected to continue into 1999/2000 in Algeria, Turkey, Indonesia, the EU, and Morocco. However, Russia is expected to import 0.5 million tons less than forecast in July because preliminary trade data indicate that shipments from Kazakstan are much lower than expected. Brazil's expected imports increased 0.5 million tons this month because of reduced production prospects, while China is expected to reduce imports by an offsetting amount because of increased production. New ERS Report Examines Price Determination for Corn and Wheat A new ERS report, Price Determination for Corn and Wheat: The Role of Market Factors and Government Programs, examines some of the factors that affect U.S. farm-level prices for corn and wheat. Annual price determination models for those crops are developed using a stocks-to-use modeling framework. This formulation is augmented by additional factors that result in yearly shifts of the functional relationship between prices and stocks-to-use measures. The relatively simple structure of the estimated price models and their small data requirements lend themselves to use in price-forecasting applications in conjunction with market analysis of supply and demand conditions. Questions regarding the report should be directed to the authors: Linwood Hoffman (202) 694-5298 and Paul Westcott (202) 694-5335. The report may viewed and/or downloaded from the following Internet site: http://www.econ.ag.gov/epubs/pdf/tb1878/ SPECIAL ARTICLE Per Capita Flour Consumption Declines Sharply in 1998 by Mack Leath Over the last 10 years, the U.S. flour milling industry has enjoyed unprecedented growth in response to a rapidly rising domestic demand for flour and flour products. Using data from the Bureau of the Census' Flour Milling reports, this article provides an update on flour production and consumption trends in the United States since 1989. Wheat Ground--The annual Flour Milling - 1998 report issued by Bureau of Census on July 12, 1999 indicated that the volume of wheat ground by the flour milling industry reached a record 895.4 million bushels in 1998. The volume ground for flour increased, on average, approximately 1.8 percent per year during 1989-98 (table A.1). The volume of wheat ground by millers increased every year during the period except 1995. Flour Production--Flour production is estimated at 398.9 million cwt in 1998, down from the record 404.1 million cwt in 1997 (table A.1). The decline reflects a decline in the average extraction rate from a record 76 percent established in 1997 to 74.3 percent in 1998. Imports of Flour and Products--Flour and product imports in 1998 totaled 9.8 million cwt, a new record. Imports of flour and products grew rapidly between 1989 and 1995, increasing 181 percent. Imports were stable in 1996 and 1997, but the volume grew by 13 percent in 1998. Flour Supply--The supply of flour available for use in the United States consists of flour production plus imports of flour plus imports of macaroni and noodle products (converted to flour equivalent units). The flour supply available for consumption or export in 1998 is estimated to total 408.7 million cwt. The total supply of flour and products in the United States has exceeded 400 million cwt during 4 of the last 5 years. Domestic Consumption--Domestic consumption is measured by subtracting exports of flour and flour products from total supply available. Domestic use is estimated at 395.0 million cwt in 1998, down 5.6 million cwt from 1997. Per capita use dropped 3.4 pounds in 1998 (table A.2). Per capita use approached the 150- pound mark in 1997, and that fact created much excitement in the milling industry. The decline in 1998 surprised many industry observers, and it may put the brakes on further expansion of milling capacity. TABLE A.1 Wheat ground, flour production and total flour supply, United States, 1989-98 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Average Flour & Total Calendar Wheat Flour extraction product flour year ground production rate imports 1/ supply ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1,000 bu 1,000 cwt Percent 1,000 cwt 1,000 cwt 1989 761,021 342,762 75.1 3,176 345,938 1990 788,186 354,348 74.9 3,460 357,808 1991 808,966 362,311 74.6 3,891 366,202 1992 833,339 370,829 74.2 4,832 375,661 1993 871,408 387,419 74.1 5,975 393,394 1994 884,707 392,519 73.9 8,687 401,206 1995 869,269 388,689 74.5 8,918 397,607 1996 878,070 397,776 75.5 8,574 406,350 1997 885,843 404,143 76.0 8,684 412,827 1998 895,369 398,914 74.3 9,830 408,744 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Includes macaroni and noodle products converted to flour equivalent units. TABLE A.2 Wheat flour: supply, exports, and domestic consumption, United States, 1989-98 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Calendar Flour Flour Product Domestic Population Per year supply exports exports 1/ use July 1 capita ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ -------------1,000 cwt---------------- Million Pounds 1989 345,938 24,893 201 320,844 247.3 129.7 1990 357,808 17,852 305 339,921 249.9 136.0 1991 366,202 19,611 557 346,034 252.6 137.0 1992 375,661 20,194 787 354,680 255.4 138.9 1993 393,394 22,731 687 369,976 258.1 143.3 1994 401,206 23,801 811 376,594 260.7 144.5 1995 397,607 23,615 857 373,135 263.2 141.8 1996 406,350 10,651 881 394,818 265.5 148.7 1997 412,827 11,038 1,167 400,622 267.9 149.5 1998 408,744 12,413 1,353 394,978 270.3 146.1 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Includes macaroni and noodle products converted to flour equivalent units. Conclusions--Does this signal a major shift in food consumption patterns in the United States? Many observers expected per capita use to surpass the 150-pound plateau in 1998, but that did not come about. Year-to-year changes must be interpreted with caution since no adjustments are made for changes in end-of-year flour stocks at flour mills. Total consumption of flour and flour products is expected to continue to grow in response to population growth and changes in consumer taste and preferences. Growing health concerns have contributed to dramatic growth in use of grain-based products during the last quarter of a century. The decline in 1998 presents a unique challenge to the flour milling industry, which is forced to reevaluate plans for mill construction and capacity expansion in the 21st century. Food manufacturers have introduced a variety of wheat-based products in the last decade in response to consumers' increasing desire for greater food variety, as well as more fast foods, pizzas, frozen meals in flour based sauces, tortillas, and other specialty items. The new and more convenient products have contributed to the growth. Future growth will challenge the food industry to be more innovative in the development and introduction of grain-based products that meet the nutritional needs of the American consumer. All of these factors will provide potential for future growth, but there are signs that the period of rapid growth in per capita consumption of flour and flour products may be over. Current U.S. consumption levels approximate the observed levels in many of the highly developed western European nations. A similar analysis focusing on consumption of semolina and other durum products will be featured in the September 1999 issue of Wheat Outlook. ================================================================= Information Contacts: Mack N. Leath (domestic) (202) 694-5302 Edward W. Allen (international) (202) 694-5288 Electronic copies available at: World Wide Web Site www.econ.ag.gov ERS Autofax system (202) 694-5700 Document Number 12105 The next electronic Wheat Outlook report will be issued on September 14, 1999. The 1999 Wheat Yearbook is now available at: 1) ERS AutoFax; Call (202) 694-5700 and select document 12100 for a complete directory of the historical tables and special articles. 2) ERS Homepage: www.econ.ag.gov/, select "Products and Services," then "Publications," "Field Crops," and "Wheat." Other wheat publications may be obtained from the ERS "Wheat Briefing Room" at http://www.econ.ag.gov/Briefing/wheat. ================================================================ Table 1--Wheat: U.S. market year supply and disappearance, 8/16/99 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Item 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99E 1999/00P ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Area: (mil. ac.) National toal base 88.9 88.5 87.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 Eff.base/Ctr. acres 0,50/92,85 5.2 6.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 CRP base retired 10.8 10.8 10.6 10.1 9.7 0.0 Planted 70.3 69.0 75.1 70.4 65.9 62.7 Harvested 61.8 61.0 62.8 62.8 59.0 54.5 Yield: (bu/acre) 37.6 35.8 36.3 39.5 43.2 42.5 Supply: (mil. bu.) Beginning stocks 568.5 506.6 376.0 443.6 722.5 944.9 Production 2,321.0 2,182.7 2,277.4 2,481.5 2,550.4 2,314.5 Imports 1/ 91.9 67.9 92.3 94.9 103.4 105.0 Total supply 2,981.4 2,757.2 2,745.7 3,020.0 3,376.3 3,364.5 Use: Food 853.0 882.9 890.7 914.1 905.0 915.0 Seed 89.0 103.5 102.3 92.6 80.7 90.0 Feed and residual 344.5 153.7 307.6 250.5 403.6 325.0 Total domestic 1,286.6 1,140.1 1,300.6 1,257.1 1,389.3 1,330.0 Exports 1/ 1,188.3 1,241.1 1,001.5 1,040.4 1,042.0 1,150.0 Total use 2,474.8 2,381.2 2,302.1 2,297.5 2,431.3 2,480.0 Ending stocks: 506.6 376.0 443.6 722.5 944.9 884.5 Farmer-owned reserve 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 CCC inventory 2/ 142.0 118.0 93.0 94.0 128.0 100.0 Free stocks 364.6 258.0 350.6 628.5 816.9 784.5 Stocks-to-use ratio 20.5 15.8 19.3 31.4 38.9 35.7 Prices: ($/bu.) Target price 4.00 4.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Loan rate 2.58 2.58 2.58 2.58 2.58 2.58 Contract rate 3/ 0.61 0.00 0.87 0.63 0.66 0.64 Ave. farm price 3.45 4.55 4.30 3.38 2.65 2.45-2.95 Contract pmts. (mil. dollars) 3/ 1,146 100 1,941 1,414 1,943 1,790 Market value of production (mil. dollars) 8,007 9,787 9,782 8,387 6,759 6,249 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Source: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, WAOB, USDA. Totals may not add due to rounding. E=Estimated, P=Projected, N.A.=not applicable. 1/ Imports and exports include flour and other products expressed in wheat equivalent. 2/ Includes Food Security Reserve. 3/ Deficiency payments prior to 1996/97. Table 2--Wheat: U.S. market year supply and disappearance, 8/16/99 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1998/99E HRW HRS SRW White Durum All wheat ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Area: Million acres Planted 32.36 14.85 10.18 4.67 3.80 65.87 Harvested 27.34 14.41 9.06 4.46 3.73 59.00 Yield: (bu/acre) 43.24 33.78 48.86 66.77 37.82 43.23 Supply: Million bushels Beg. stocks 306.7 220.0 80.0 90.0 25.8 722.5 Production 1,182.1 486.8 442.6 297.8 141.1 2,550.4 Imports 2/ 0.9 58.8 0.0 10.5 33.3 103.4 Total 1,489.6 765.6 522.6 398.3 200.1 3,376.3 Utilization: Food 385.0 225.0 150.0 75.0 70.0 905.0 Seed 34.8 17.3 18.3 6.2 4.1 80.7 Feed & residual 184.2 45.3 115.4 32.1 26.7 403.6 Total domestic 604.0 287.6 283.6 113.3 100.8 1,389.3 Exports 2/ 451.5 245.0 103.0 198.0 44.5 1,042.0 Total 1,055.5 532.6 386.6 311.3 145.3 2,431.3 Ending stocks: 434.1 233.0 136.0 87.0 54.8 944.9 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1999/00P HRW HRS SRW White Durum All wheat ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Area: Million acres Planted 30.88 14.31 9.03 4.50 4.01 62.73 Harvested 24.53 13.99 7.92 4.13 3.90 54.47 Yield: (bu/acre) 42.49 32.90 56.89 59.95 29.18 42.49 Supply: Million bushels Beg. stocks 434.1 233.0 136.0 87.0 54.8 944.9 Production 1,042.3 460.3 450.6 247.6 113.8 2,314.5 Imports 2/ 2.0 57.0 0.0 11.0 35.0 105.0 Total 1,478.5 750.3 586.6 345.6 203.6 3,364.5 Utilization: Total domestic 581.0 263.0 318.0 81.0 87.0 1,330.0 Exports 2/ 515.0 280.0 130.0 185.0 40.0 1,150.0 Total 1,096.0 543.0 448.0 266.0 127.0 2,480.0 Ending stocks: 382.5 207.3 138.6 79.6 76.6 884.5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Source: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, WAOB, USDA. Totals may not add due to rounding. E=Estimated, P=Projected. 1/ ERS estimates of area, yield, and domestic use. 2/ Imports and exports include flour and other products expressed in wheat equivalent. Table 3--Wheat: Quarterly supply and disappearance (1,000 bu.), 8/16/99 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Market Produc- Imports Supply Food Seed Feed Exports Ending Year tion 2/ 2/ stocks ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1996/97: Million bushels Jun-Aug 2,277 15 2,668 224 9 378 334 1,724 Sep-Nov --- 21 1,745 234 60 (76) 308 1,219 Dec-Feb --- 27 1,246 213 2 30 179 822 Mar-May --- 30 852 221 32 (24) 180 444 Mkt. year 2,277 92 2,746 891 102 308 1,002 444 1997/98 E: Jun-Aug 2,481 23 2,948 228 3 352 288 2,076 Sep-Nov --- 23 2,099 239 59 (113) 296 1,619 Dec-Feb --- 24 1,643 219 2 0 255 1,167 Mar-May --- 26 1,192 228 29 11 201 722 Mkt. year 2,481 95 3,020 914 93 250 1,040 722 1998/99 P: Jun-Aug 2,550 24 3,297 226 1 428 257 2,385 Sep-Nov --- 24 2,409 241 55 (74) 292 1,896 Dec-Feb --- 28 1,924 213 1 12 246 1,450 Mar-May --- 27 1,478 225 23 37 247 945 Mkt. year 2,550 103 3,376 905 81 404 1,042 945 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Totals might not add due to rounding. E=Estimated, P=Projected. 1/ Imports and exports include flour and selected products expressed in wheat equivalent. Table 4--Wheat: Monthly food use estimates (1,000 bu.), 1998/99, 8/16/99 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1998/99 (Est.) | June July August September October November ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Mill grind 1/ + | 70,609 71,477 78,119 75,117 83,548 79,969 Food imports + | 1,991 1,886 2,064 1,744 2,076 2,020 Non-flour | food use 2/ + | 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 Food exports - | 2,189 1,968 2,297 3,151 4,056 2,524 Food use | 72,412 73,395 79,886 75,711 83,569 81,465 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- | December January February March April May ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Mill grind 1/ + | 75,063 69,869 69,314 73,539 N.A. N.A. Food imports + | 2,090 1,996 1,846 1,945 1,915 1,890 Non-flour | food use 2/ + | 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 Food exports - | 6,721 2,755 3,535 4,323 3,304 2,107 Food use* = | 72,431 71,110 69,626 73,160 N.A. N.A. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Census. Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Wheat flour and products converted to wheat grain equivalent. 2/ Non-flour food use is ERS estimate. N.A.-not available. Table 5--Wheat: Farm prices and prices at selected markets ($/bu.), 8/16/99 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- | ---------------------- Farm prices ------------------------- | All wheat | Winter | Durum | Other spring Month | 98/99 99/00 | 98/99 99/00 | 98/99 99/00 | 98/99 99/00 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Jun | 2.77 2.50 | 2.68 2.32 | 3.98 2.93 | 3.22 3.01 Jul 1/| 2.56 2.15 | 2.48 2.07 | 3.37 2.87 | 3.08 2.93 Aug | 2.39 . | 2.25 . | 3.25 . | 2.70 . Sep | 2.41 . | 2 32 . | 3.08 . | 2.65 . Oct | 2.79 . | 2.66 . | 3.16 . | 3.12 . Nov | 2.97 . | 2.78 . | 3.17 . | 3.26 . Dec | 2.87 . | 2.67 . | 3.14 . | 3.26 . Jan | 2.80 . | 2.67 . | 3.21 . | 3.07 . Feb | 2.74 . | 2.56 . | 2.84 . | 3.10 . Mar | 2.65 . | 2.53 . | 2.81 . | 3.01 . Apr | 2.62 . | 2.48 . | 2.80 . | 2.95 . May | 2.53 . | 2.36 . | 2.84 . | 2.93 . | KC HRW #1 | KC HRW #1 | St. Louis | Portland | ordinary | 13% prot. | #2 SRW | #1 soft white Month | 98/99 99/00 | 98/99 99/00 | 98/99 99/00 | 98/99 99/00 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Jun | 3.16 2.93 | 3.57 3.22 | 2.66 2.31 | 2.93 3.17 Jul | 3.02 . | 3.57 . | 2.43 . | 2.72 . Aug | 2.74 . | 3.12 . | 2.26 . | 2.66 . Sep | 2.81 . | 3.17 . | 2.12 . | 2.69 . Oct | 3.30 . | 3.67 . | 2.23 . | 3.15 . Nov | 3.42 . | 3.89 . | 2.41 . | 3.15 . Dec | 3.31 . | 3.74 . | 2.54 . | 3.12 . Jan | 3.27 . | 3.61 . | 2.51 . | 3.15 . Feb | 3.05 . | 3.35 . | 2.33 . | 3.10 . Mar | 3.02 . | 3.34 . | 2.44 . | 3.22 . Apr | 2.94 . | 3.34 . | 2.44 . | 3.23 . May | 2.89 . | 3.28 . | 2.45 . | 3.17 . | Minneapolis | Minneapolis | FOB Gulf | Average EEP | DNS 14% prot. | #1 durum | $/ton (HRW) | bonus $/ton 2/ Month | 98/99 99/00 | 98/99 99/00 | 98/99 99/00 | 98/99 99/00 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Jun | 4.01 3.73 | 5.00 NQ | 120.52 110.60 | 0.00 0.00 Jul | 3.89 . | 4.59 . | 117.95 . | 0.00 . Aug | 3.58 . | 4.20 . | 108.76 . | 0.00 . Sep | 3.53 . | 3.78 . | 108.03 . | 0.00 . Oct | 4.03 . | 4.04 . | 126.03 . | 0.00 . Nov | 4.15 . | 4.15 . | 131.18 . | 0.00 . Dec | 3.97 . | 4.05 . | 126.40 . | 0.00 . Jan | 3.92 . | 3.91 . | 125.30 . | 0.00 . Feb | 3.78 . | 3.67 . | 116.48 . | 0.00 . Mar | 3.79 . | 3.65 . | 117.95 . | 0.00 . Apr | 3.65 . | 3.61 . | 113.91 . | 0.00 . May | 3.61 . | NQ . | 112.07 . | 0.00 . ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Mid-month price for current month of the 1999/00 marketing year. 2/ Weighted average, all classes. NQ-no quote. Source: NASS & AMS, USDA. Table 6--Wheat: Exports and imports for last 6 months, 8/16/99 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- U.S. wheat exports, (1,000 bu.) 1998/99 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Item 1/ | December January February March April May ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Wheat grain | 96,486 73,017 63,794 65,522 86,066 85,057 Wheat flour | 6,472 2,551 3,341 4,126 3,105 1,948 Products | 274 260 271 271 248 214 Total | 103,233 75,828 67,406 69,919 89,419 87,219 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- U.S. wheat imports, (1,000 bu.) 1998/99 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Item 1/ | December January February March April May -------------|--------------------------------------------------------------- Wheat grain | 6,064 7,702 8,199 6,929 5,630 8,906 Wheat flour | 618 718 667 739 707 743 Products | 1,473 1,283 1,180 1,208 1,215 1,147 Total | 8,154 9,702 10,046 8,876 7,552 10,796 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Census. 1/ Wheat flour and products converted to wheat grain equivalent. Totals may not add due to rounding. Monthly and quarterly estimates since 1995/96 are available in ERS AutoFax Document 12181, and electronically at www.econ.ag.gov/briefing/wheat/data. Note: Bold April numbers have been revised. Table 7--Wheat: U.S. exports, Census and Export Sales comparison, 8/16/99 1/ ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- | 1997/98 | 1998/99 | 1999/2000 (as of 8/5/99) |--------------------------------------------------------------- | |Ship- |Outstanding| Total | Shipments |ments | sales | ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Data | | Export | | Export | Export Source | Census | sales |Census | sales | Sales ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- | --1,000 metric tons-- Country: | Egypt | 4,837 | 4,982 | 4,516 | 4,397 | 562 146 708 EU | 1,302 | 1,298 | 1,421 | 1,407 | 222 198 420 Israel | 830 | 786 | 716 | 734 | 274 63 337 Japan | 3,169 | 3,373 | 3,076 | 3,201 | 346 492 838 S. Korea | 1,446 | 1,400 | 1,534 | 1,366 | 291 248 539 Mexico | 1,156 | 1,151 | 1,734 | 1,860 | 345 290 635 Nigeria | 730 | 817 | 1,238 | 1,300 | 250 200 450 Pakistan | 2,180 | 2,232 | 867 | 844 | 0 0 0 Philippines | 1,458 | 1,531 | 1,682 | 1,749 | 344 189 533 Taiwan | 1,003 | 975 | 889 | 920 | 163 106 269 Total grain | 27,295 | 27,518 | 27,202 | 25,555 | 4,607 3,394 8,000 Total(incl) | | | | | products)1/| 28,308 | 27,626 | 28,359 | 25,648 | 4,621 3,399 8,020 USDA forecast| | | | | of Census| | | | | 31,298 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/Export sales and shipments from USDA's monthly U.S. Export Sales report. END_OF_FILE