WHEAT OUTLOOK September 14, 1999 September 1999, WHS-0999 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board --------------------------------------------------------------------------- WHEAT OUTLOOK is issued 11 times a year by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. Electronic release only; no published copies are available. WHEAT OUTLOOK is supplemented by an annual WHEAT YEARBOOK. The yearbook summary for 1999 was released on March 26, 1999. Yearbooks are available in print from the USDA Order Desk. For the 1999 issue, call 1-800-999-6779 (703-605-6220) and ask for stock #ERS-WHS-1999, $21. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Highlights -- U.S. Durum and Other Spring Wheat Production Prospects Decline in August -- Projected Season Average Price Lowered -- Balance Sheet Adjustments Increase Ending Stocks -- U.S. 1999/2000 Wheat Export Forecast Reduced Because of Increased Competition -- Foreign Production and Consumption Projections Increased Slightly SPECIAL ARTICLE: Per Capita Use of Semolina and Durum Products Down Again in 1998 U.S. Durum and Other Spring Wheat Production Prospects Decline in August Total U.S. wheat production is projected at 2,307 million bushels, down 8 million bushels from last month. Production prospects for other spring wheat in 1999 declined during August, and the yield projection was reduced from 34.2 bushels to 33.9 bushels per harvested acre, a 1 percent reduction. The yield projection for durum wheat was also reduced from 29.2 bushels to 28.3 bushel per harvested acre, a 3 percent reduction. Total wheat supply is projected at 3,357 million bushels, down 7 million from last month, but still the second highest since 1987/88. The decline in production reflects yield reductions for durum wheat in North Dakota and South Dakota and for other spring wheat in Montana and South Dakota. The yield declines for other spring wheat are partially offset by an increase in Idaho's other spring wheat yield. Projected Season Average Price Lowered Wheat prices have been under significant pressure as record yield prospects for winter wheat boosted production prospects during the summer. Even though 1999 production is projected down, the large supplies will continue to pressure cash and futures prices for the remainder of the marketing year. The price received by farmers during the first 2 months of 1999/2000 (June-July) averaged $2.36 per bushel, 30 cents below the same period last year. The preliminary mid-month estimate for August is $2.43 per bushel. The summer months normally account for the heaviest marketings by farmers, and these early season prices will weigh heavily on the season average price received by farmers for the entire marketing season. The Loan Deficiency Payment (LDP) rate for wheat is significantly higher than last year. As of Thursday, September 9, the average rate paid on wheat was over 50 cents per bushel, compared with an average of 29 cents for all of the 1988 crop. As of that date, payments issued to producers on 1999-crop wheat totaled $675 million. The payments covered 1,329 million bushels from the 1999 crop, or about 58 percent of projected 1999 production. The total will increase as the harvest of durum and other spring wheat winds down. This is another indication that farm prices are below last season at this point in time. Prices received by farmers are expected to increase in the coming months, but strong prices will be needed to offset the poor start of the 1999/2000 marketing season. The U.S. season average farm price is projected to be down from the estimated $2.65 per bushel in 1998/99. The projected price for 1999/2000, at $2.45-$2.75 per bushel, is down 20 cents on the top of the range from last month because of large ending stocks and lower than expected early-season prices. Unlike last season, when the average price received by farmers peaked in November, monthly-average prices received by farmers are expected to follow a more normal seasonal pattern in 1999/2000, hitting seasonal lows during harvest (June through August), then increasing to reflect carrying charges. In the coming months, the wheat price will not only be influenced by large 1999/2000 U.S. and global wheat supplies, but also by weather developments that may affect the 2000/01 winter wheat crops in the Northern Hemisphere. Balance Sheet Adjustments Increase Ending Stocks Ending stocks for 1999/2000 are up 16 million bushels from last month as smaller exports more than offset the lower production estimate and the slightly larger domestic seed use. Domestic feed and residual use is unchanged at 325 million bushels this season. Low corn prices during the summer months are expected to keep wheat feeding in check this year. Seed use was increased slightly to account for the weather delays that extended the planting season for the 1999 durum and other spring wheat crops beyond the June 1 start of the 1999/2000 marketing season. The export projection is down 25 million bushels from last month as bigger projected exports from Canada and Argentina will keep the world wheat market very competitive in 1999/2000. Projected exports of HRS wheat are reduced 15 million bushels and projected exports of white wheat are reduced by 10 million bushels. Ending stocks of all wheat are forecast at 900 million bushels, 45 million below the carryover on June 1, 1999. The projected carryover on June 1, 2000 will be the second highest since 1987/88. U.S. 1999/2000 Wheat Export Forecast Reduced Because of Increased Competition U.S. wheat exports for 1999/2000 are forecast at 30.5 million tons, down 1 million tons from last month. Increased competition is expected from Canada and Argentina. Government crop production estimates in Canada indicated higher yield prospects as of late July. In addition, growing conditions during August were favorable, allowing the late-planted crop to mature, and mostly favorable temperatures continued into early September. At 25 million tons, Canada's production is forecast up 1.5 million tons this month and is larger than the previous 2 years despite a decline in area planted. With larger supplies, Canada's 1999/2000 exports are now expected to reach 17.5 million tons, up 3 million from the previous year. In Argentina wheat planting conditions were favorable and with low prices for competing crops, producers planted more 1999/2000 wheat area than expected, boosting production prospects by 0.4 million tons to 12.7 million. Also the 1998/99 production estimate was increased 0.75 million tons to 11.5 million. The Southern Hemisphere harvest in Argentina means that 1999/2000 (July/June) exports will draw from both the 1998/99 and 1999/2000 harvests. Argentina's 1998/99 export estimate increased 0.2 million tons this month to 8.7, while the 1999/2000 export projection increased 0.5 million to 9.0 million. While increased production boosted export prospects for Canada and Argentina, U.S. prospects were further dimmed by slower than expected pace of export sales. Shipments during June-August were up only 1 percent from year earlier. However, the U.S. Export Sales report showed outstanding sales on September 2, 1999, down 19 percent. Local marketing year exports are forecast to increase 8 percent in 1999/2000. Global import demand in 1999/2000 is expected to be boosted by drought in the Middle East, where imports are forecast up 3 million tons. However, wheat imports are expected to decline slightly for Latin America and the former Soviet Union, and grow sluggishly elsewhere, leaving world wheat trade up less than 1 percent. The United States is expected to increase its market share slightly in 1999/2000, despite increased competition from Canada, Australia, and Argentina, because of lower exports from Turkey, Eastern Europe, and the former Soviet Union. Foreign Production and Consumption Projections Increased Slightly World wheat production in 1999/2000 is forecast up 1 million tons this month to 577 million. Increased production in Canada and Argentina is partly offset by lower forecasts for North Africa, where revised crop estimates for Algeria and Tunisia indicate that dryness during the growing season hurt the crop more than expected. Compared to a year earlier, world wheat production in 1999/2000 is down 11 million tons, and is the lowest since 1995/96. Moreover, in 1999/2000 world consumption is projected to exceed production by 11 million tons, reducing stocks. Forecast global consumption increased almost 1 million tons this month because of increased wheat feeding in the European Union (EU) and increased food use in India. However, world wheat consumption is still forecast down 3 million tons from a year earlier, mostly because of reduced feed use in the former Soviet Union, Eastern Europe, and North America. World 1999/2000 ending stocks are projected at 124 million tons, down slightly from a month ago, and down 11 million tons from 1998/99. Compared to the previous year, EU wheat stocks are expected to fall by nearly 5 million tons, while stocks in the Middle East drop by more than 3 million. SPECIAL ARTICLE Per Capita Use of Durum Products Down Again in 1998 by Mack Leath During the early 1990's, the pasta industry enjoyed a growing domestic market for durum products. An article in the August issue of Wheat Outlook focused on the domestic use of flour and flour products in the United States, emphasizing the dramatic decline in per capita use that occurred in 1998. This article will use data from the Bureau of the Census' Flour Milling reports and data on imports and exports of semolina and durum products to study the durum product component of domestic food use of wheat in the 1990's. Domestic Supply of Semolina and Durum Products Semolina Production--The annual Flour Milling - 1998 report issued by Bureau of the Census on July 12, 1999, indicated that wheat ground by durum millers totaled 58.4 million bushels in 1998. That total is the lowest grind since 1990 and is 19 percent below the record 72.1 million bushels ground in 1994 (table A.1). Semolina production is estimated at 27.1 million cwt in 1998, down from 32.6 million cwt in 1996 (table A.1). These data imply an extraction rate of about 77 percent in 1998. Imports of Semolina and Durum Products--Semolina and durum product imports in 1998 totaled a record 5.6 million cwt. Imports of semolina and durum products (durum pasta with and without sauce, durum flour, and couscous) have increased 129 percent since 1990. Total Supply--The supply of semolina and durum products available for domestic use or export consists of domestic semolina production plus imports of semolina, couscous, macaroni, and noodle products (converted to semolina equivalent units). The total supply available for domestic use or export in 1998 is estimated at 32.7 million cwt, down from the record 37.2 million in 1996 (table A.1). TABLE A.1 Durum products: production, imports, and total supply, United States, 1990-98 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Durum Average Semolina & Total Calendar Wheat extraction Semolina product supply year ground rate production imports 1/ available ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1,000 bu Percent 1,000 cwt 1,000 cwt 1,000 cwt 1990 58,366 74.9 26,236 2,444 28,680 1991 58,969 72.4 25,613 2,693 28,306 1992 67,999 78.2 31,905 2,986 34,891 1993 70,575 76.7 32,488 3,390 35,878 1994 72,141 75.4 32,631 4,330 36,961 1995 67,627 76.3 30,964 4,562 35,526 1996 70,069 77.6 32,623 4,557 37,180 1997 64,663 76.0 29,476 5,163 34,639 1998 58,395 77.2 27,056 5,605 32,661 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Includes macaroni and noodle products converted to semolina equivalents units. Source: Bureau of the Census, Flour Milling reports and trade data. Domestic Disappearance of Semolina and Durum Products Domestic consumption is measured by subtracting exports of semolina and durum products from the total supply available. Domestic use is estimated at 31.5 million cwt in 1998, down from the record 36.4 million in 1996. Per capita use has dropped 2.1 pounds since 1996 (table A.2). Per capita use surpassed 13 pounds for the first time in 1992, and remained above that level for the next 4 years. The declines in 1997 and 1998 surprised many industry observers, and it has led to major adjustments by durum millers as well as pasta makers. TABLE A.2 Durum products: supply, exports, and domestic use, United States, 1990-98 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Total Total Total Per Calendar supply Semolina Product domestic population capita year available exports exports 1/ use July 1 use ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1,000 cwt 1,000 cwt 1,000 cwt 1,000 cwt Million Pounds 1990 28,680 39 179 28,462 249.9 11.4 1991 28,306 129 294 27,883 252.6 11.0 1992 34,891 188 451 34,252 255.4 13.4 1993 35,878 354 205 35,319 258.1 13.7 1994 36,961 503 154 36,304 260.7 13.9 1995 35,526 156 563 34,807 263.2 13.2 1996 37,180 174 569 36,437 265.5 13.7 1997 34,639 152 893 33,594 267.9 12.5 1998 32,661 138 1,037 31,486 270.3 11.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes macaroni and noodle products converted to semolina equivalent units. Source: Bureau of the Census, Flour Milling reports and trade data. Conclusions It appears that declining use of pasta products during the last 2 years is a major factor contributing to the lower use of wheat- based products that occurred in 1998. Preliminary data for the first 6 months of Calendar Year 1999 indicate that domestic pasta use is below the same period of 1998. Year-to-year changes must be interpreted with caution since no adjustments are made for changes in end-of-year stocks of semolina at durum mills. The pasta industry faces two major challenges as we approach the 21st century. First, the industry must develop and market new pasta products that meet the changing tastes and preferences of U.S. consumers for greater food variety and more convenient, easy-to-prepare foods for home use. Second, the industry must offer quality products that can compete effectively with the rising volume of imported pasta products. ============================================================ Information Contacts: Mack N. Leath (domestic) (202) 694-5302 Edward W. Allen (international) (202) 694-5288 Electronic copies available at: World Wide Web Site: www.econ.ag.gov ERS Autofax system: (202) 694-5700 Document Number 12105 The next electronic Wheat Outlook report will be issued on October 13, 1999. The 1999 Wheat Yearbook is now available at: 1) ERS AutoFax; Call (202) 694-5700 and select document 12100 for a complete directory of the historical tables and special articles. 2) ERS Homepage: www.econ.ag.gov/, select "Products and Services," then "Publications," "Field Crops," and "Wheat." Other wheat publications may be obtained from the ERS "Wheat Briefing Room" at http://www.econ.ag.gov/Briefing/wheat. ===========================================---------------------============ Table 1--Wheat: U.S. market year supply and disappearance, 9/14/99 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Item 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99E 1999/00P ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Area: (mil. ac.) National total base 88.9 88.5 87.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 Eff. base/Ctr. acres 0,50/92,85 5.2 6.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 CRP base retired 10.8 10.8 10.6 10.1 9.7 0.0 Planted 70.3 69.0 75.1 70.4 65.9 62.7 Harvested 61.8 61.0 62.8 62.8 59.0 54.5 Yield: (bu/acre) 37.6 35.8 36.3 39.5 43.2 42.5 Supply: (mil. bu.) Beginning stocks 568.5 506.6 376.0 443.6 722.5 944.9 Production 2,321.0 2,182.7 2,277.4 2,481.5 2,550.4 2,306.7 Imports 1/ 91.9 67.9 92.3 94.9 103.4 105.0 Total supply 2,981.4 2,757.2 2,745.7 3,020.0 3,376.3 3,356.6 Use: Food 853.0 882.9 890.7 914.1 905.0 915.0 Seed 89.0 103.5 102.3 92.6 80.7 92.0 Feed and residual 344.5 153.7 307.6 250.5 403.6 325.0 Total domestic 1,286.6 1,140.1 1,300.6 1,257.1 1,389.3 1,332.0 Exports 1/ 1,188.3 1,241.1 1,001.5 1,040.4 1,042.0 1,125.0 Total use 2,474.8 2,381.2 2,302.1 2,297.5 2,431.3 2,457.0 Ending stocks: 506.6 376.0 443.6 722.5 944.9 899.6 Farmer-owned reserve 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 CCC inventory 2/ 142.0 118.0 93.0 94.0 128.0 100.0 Free stocks 364.6 258.0 350.6 628.5 816.9 799.6 Stocks-to-use ratio 20.5 15.8 19.3 31.4 38.9 36.6 Prices: ($/bu.) Target price 4.00 4.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Loan rate 2.58 2.58 2.58 2.58 2.58 2.58 Contract rate 3/ 0.61 0.00 0.87 0.63 0.66 0.64 Ave. farm price 3.45 4.55 4.30 3.38 2.65 2.45-2.75 Contract payments (mil. dollars) 3/ 1,146 100 1,941 1,414 1,943 2,313 Market value of production (mil. dollars) 8,007 9,787 9,782 8,387 6,759 5,997 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Source: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, WAOB, USDA. Totals may not add due to rounding. E=Estimated, P=Projected, N.A.=not applicable. 1/ Imports and exports include flour and other products expressed in wheat equivalent. 2/ Includes Food Security Reserve. 3/ Deficiency payments prior to 1996/97. Table 2--Wheat: U.S. market year supply and disappearance, 9/14/99 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1998/99E HRW HRS SRW White Durum All wheat ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Area: Million acres Planted 32.36 14.85 10.18 4.67 3.80 65.87 Harvested 27.34 14.41 9.06 4.46 3.73 59.00 Yield: (bu/acre) 43.24 33.78 48.86 66.77 37.82 43.23 Supply: Million bushels Beg. stocks 306.7 220.0 80.0 90.0 25.8 722.5 Production 1,182.1 486.8 442.6 297.8 141.1 2,550.4 Imports 2/ 0.9 58.8 0.0 10.5 33.3 103.4 Total 1,489.6 765.6 522.6 398.3 200.1 3,376.3 Utilization: Food 386.0 225.0 150.0 75.0 67.3 903.2 Seed 34.8 17.3 18.3 6.2 4.1 80.7 Feed & residual 183.0 45.3 115.4 32.1 29.6 405.3 Total domestic 603.8 287.6 283.6 113.3 101.0 1,389.3 Exports 2/ 451.7 245.0 103.0 198.0 44.3 1,042.0 Total 1,055.5 532.6 386.6 311.3 145.3 2,431.3 Ending stocks: 434.1 233.0 136.0 87.0 54.8 944.9 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1999/00P HRW HRS SRW White Durum All wheat ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Area: Million acres Planted 30.88 14.31 9.03 4.50 4.01 62.73 Harvested 24.53 13.99 7.92 4.13 3.90 54.47 Yield: (bu/acre) 42.49 32.54 56.89 60.10 28.31 42.35 Supply: Million bushels Beg. stocks 434.1 233.0 136.0 87.0 54.8 944.9 Production 1,042.3 455.2 450.6 248.2 110.4 2,306.7 Imports 2/ 2.0 58.0 0.0 10.0 35.0 105.0 Total 1,478.5 746.2 586.6 345.2 200.2 3,356.6 Utilization: Total domestic 579.5 263.5 318.5 81.5 89.0 1,330.0 Exports 2/ 515.0 265.0 130.0 175.0 40.0 1,125.0 Total 1,094.5 528.5 448.5 256.5 129.0 2,455.0 Ending stocks: 384.0 217.7 138.1 88.7 71.2 899.6 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Source: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, WAOB, USDA. Totals may not add due to rounding. E=Estimated, P=Projected. 1/ ERS estimates of area, yield, and domestic use. 2/ Imports and exports include flour and other products expressed in wheat equivalent. Table 3--Wheat: Quarterly supply and disappearance (1,000 bu.), 9/14/99 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Market Produc- Imports Supply Food Seed Feed Exports Ending Year tion 2/ 2/ stocks ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1996/97: Million bushels Jun-Aug 2,277 15 2,668 224 9 378 334 1,724 Sep-Nov --- 21 1,745 234 60 (76) 308 1,219 Dec-Feb --- 27 1,246 213 2 30 179 822 Mar-May --- 30 852 221 32 (24) 180 444 Mkt. year 2,277 92 2,746 891 102 308 1,002 444 1997/98 E: Jun-Aug 2,481 23 2,948 228 3 352 288 2,076 Sep-Nov --- 23 2,099 239 59 (113) 296 1,619 Dec-Feb --- 24 1,643 219 2 0 255 1,167 Mar-May --- 26 1,192 228 29 11 201 722 Mkt. year 2,481 95 3,020 914 93 250 1,040 722 1998/99 P: Jun-Aug 2,550 24 3,297 226 1 428 257 2,385 Sep-Nov --- 24 2,409 241 55 (74) 292 1,896 Dec-Feb --- 28 1,924 211 1 14 246 1,450 Mar-May --- 27 1,478 225 23 38 247 945 Mkt. year 2,550 103 3,376 903 81 405 1,042 945 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Totals might not add due to rounding. E=Estimated, P=Projected. 1/ Imports and exports include flour and selected products expressed in wheat equivalent. Table 4--Monthly food use estimates for last 12 months, (1,000 bu.), 9/14/99 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- | July August September October November December ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Mill grind 1/ + | 71,477 78,119 75,117 83,548 79,969 75,063 Food imports + | 1,886 2,064 1,744 2,076 2,020 2,090 Non-flour | food use 2/ + | 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 Food exports - | 1,968 2,297 3,151 4,056 2,524 6,721 Food use | 73,395 79,886 75,711 83,569 81,465 72,431 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- | January February March April May June ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Mill grind 1/ + | 69,118 68,570 72,479 74,352 76,022 72,734 Food imports + | 1,996 1,846 1,945 1,915 1,890 2,030 Non-flour | food use 2/ + | 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 Food exports - | 2,755 3,535 4,323 3,304 2,107 6,113 Food use* = | 70,360 68,881 72,370 74,963 77,805 70,651 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Census. Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Wheat flour and products converted to wheat grain equivalent. 2/ Non-flour food use is ERS estimate. *Monthly food use and durum food use estimates since 1990/91 are available in ERS AutoFax Document 12180, and electronically at www.econ.ag.gov/briefing/wheat/data. N.A.-not available. Table 5--Wheat: Farm prices and prices at selected markets ($/bu.), 9/14/99 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- | ---------------------- Farm prices ------------------------- | All wheat | Winter | Durum | Other spring Month | 98/99 99/00 | 98/99 99/00 | 98/99 99/00 | 98/99 99/00 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Jun | 2.77 2.50 | 2.68 2.32 | 3.98 2.93 | 3.22 3.01 Jul | 2.56 2.23 | 2.47 2.13 | 3.39 2.89 | 3.08 2.93 Aug 1/| 2.38 2.43 | 2.25 2.30 | 3.23 2.83 | 2.69 2.85 Sep | 2.39 . | 2 29 . | 3.03 . | 2.62 . Oct | 2.77 . | 2.66 . | 3.04 . | 3.04 . Nov | 2.95 . | 2.76 . | 3.08 . | 3.23 . Dec | 2.86 . | 2.68 . | 3.05 . | 3.19 . Jan | 2.84 . | 2.70 . | 3.20 . | 3.12 . Feb | 2.73 . | 2.55 . | 2.84 . | 3.09 . Mar | 2.65 . | 2.53 . | 2.82 . | 3.00 . Apr | 2.62 . | 2.48 . | 2.80 . | 2.95 . May | 2.49 . | 2.34 . | 2.84 . | 2.92 . | KC HRW #1 | KC HRW #1 | St. Louis | Portland | ordinary | 13% prot. | #2 SRW | #1 soft white Month | 98/99 99/00 | 98/99 99/00 | 98/99 99/00 | 98/99 99/00 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Jun | 3.16 2.93 | 3.57 3.22 | 2.66 2.31 | 2.93 3.17 Jul | 3.02 2.68 | 3.57 3.39 | 2.43 N.A. | 2.72 3.06 Aug | 2.74 2.85 | 3.12 3.42 | 2.26 2.22 | 2.66 3.14 Sep | 2.81 . | 3.17 . | 2.12 . | 2.69 . Oct | 3.30 . | 3.67 . | 2.23 . | 3.15 . Nov | 3.42 . | 3.89 . | 2.41 . | 3.15 . Dec | 3.31 . | 3.74 . | 2.54 . | 3.12 . Jan | 3.27 . | 3.61 . | 2.51 . | 3.15 . Feb | 3.05 . | 3.35 . | 2.33 . | 3.10 . Mar | 3.02 . | 3.34 . | 2.44 . | 3.22 . Apr | 2.94 . | 3.34 . | 2.44 . | 3.23 . May | 2.89 . | 3.28 . | 2.45 . | 3.17 . | Minneapolis | Minneapolis | FOB Gulf | Average EEP | DNS 14% prot. | #1 durum | $/ton (HRW) | bonus $/ton 2/ Month | 98/99 99/00 | 98/99 99/00 | 98/99 99/00 | 98/99 99/00 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Jun | 4.01 3.73 | 5.00 N/Q | 120.52 111.00 | 0.00 0.00 Jul | 3.89 3.68 | 4.59 3.92 | 117.95 101.00 | 0.00 0.00 Aug | 3.58 3.58 | 4.20 3.73 | 108.76 110.00 | 0.00 0.00 Sep | 3.53 . | 3.78 . | 108.03 . | 0.00 . Oct | 4.03 . | 4.04 . | 126.03 . | 0.00 . Nov | 4.15 . | 4.15 . | 131.18 . | 0.00 . Dec | 3.97 . | 4.05 . | 126.40 . | 0.00 . Jan | 3.92 . | 3.91 . | 125.30 . | 0.00 . Feb | 3.78 . | 3.67 . | 116.48 . | 0.00 . Mar | 3.79 . | 3.65 . | 117.95 . | 0.00 . Apr | 3.65 . | 3.61 . | 113.91 . | 0.00 . May | 3.61 . | N/Q . | 112.07 . | 0.00 . ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Mid-month price for current month of the 1999/00 marketing year. 2/ Weighted average, all classes. N.A.-not available. N/Q-no quote. Source: NASS & AMS, USDA. Table 6--Wheat: Exports and imports for last 6 months, 9/14/99 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- U.S. wheat exports, (1,000 bu.) 1998/99 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Item 1/ | January February March April May June ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Wheat grain | 73,017 63,794 65,522 86,066 85,057 90,594 Wheat flour | 2,551 3,341 4,126 3,105 1,948 5,900 Products | 260 271 271 248 214 520 Total | 75,828 67,406 69,919 89,419 87,219 97,013 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- U.S. wheat imports, (1,000 bu.) 1998/99 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Item 1/ | January February March April May June -------------|--------------------------------------------------------------- Wheat grain | 7,702 8,199 6,929 5,630 8,906 7,565 Wheat flour | 718 667 739 707 743 742 Products | 1,283 1,180 1,208 1,215 1,147 1,292 Total | 9,702 10,046 8,876 7,552 10,796 2,034 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Census. 1/ Wheat flour and products converted to wheat grain equivalent. Totals may not add due to rounding. Monthly and quarterly estimates since 1995/96 are available in ERS AutoFax Document 12181, and electronically at www.econ.ag.gov/briefing/wheat/data. Table 7--Wheat: U.S. exports, Census and Export Sales comparison, 9/14/99 1/ ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- | 1997/98 | 1998/99 | 1999/2000 (as of 9/2/99) |--------------------------------------------------------------- | |Ship- |Outstanding| Total | Shipments |ments | sales | ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Data | | Export | | Export | Export Source | Census | sales |Census | sales | Sales ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- | --1,000 metric tons-- Country: | Egypt | 4,837 | 4,982 | 4,516 | 4,397 | 770 605 1,375 EU | 1,302 | 1,298 | 1,421 | 1,407 | 366 209 575 Israel | 830 | 786 | 716 | 734 | 283 120 404 Japan | 3,169 | 3,373 | 3,076 | 3,201 | 652 399 1,051 S. Korea | 1,446 | 1,400 | 1,534 | 1,366 | 397 254 652 Mexico | 1,156 | 1,151 | 1,734 | 1,860 | 445 276 720 Nigeria | 730 | 817 | 1,238 | 1,300 | 361 196 557 Pakistan | 2,180 | 2,232 | 867 | 844 | 0 0 0 Philippines | 1,458 | 1,531 | 1,682 | 1,749 | 536 157 693 Taiwan | 1,003 | 975 | 889 | 920 | 217 77 294 Total grain | 27,295 | 27,518 | 27,202 | 25,555 | 6,916 3,555 10,472 Total(incl) | | | | | products)1/| 28,308 | 27,626 | 28,359 | 25,648 | 6,933 3,562 10,495 USDA forecast| | | | | of Census| | | | | 30,618 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/Export sales and shipments from USDA's monthly U.S. Export Sales report. END_OF_FILE