WHEAT OUTLOOK November 15, 1999 November 1999, WHS-1199 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board --------------------------------------------------------------------------- WHEAT OUTLOOK is issued 11 times a year by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. Electronic release only; no published copies are available. WHEAT OUTLOOK is supplemented by an annual WHEAT YEARBOOK. The yearbook summary for 1999 was released on March 26, 1999. Yearbooks are available in print from ERS-NASS Order Desk. For the 1999 issue, call 1-800-999-6779 (703-605-6220) and ask for stock #ERS-WHS-1999, $21. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- WHEAT OUTLOOK is issued 11 times a year in electronic form by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. Printed copies are not available. The report is available as Autofax document 12105. Highlights -- U.S. Wheat Production Revised in November Crop Production Report -- Higher Ending Stocks Will Keep Pressure on Wheat Prices -- Adverse Harvest Weather Changes Durum Picture -- Weather Also Raises Quality Concerns for Durum and HRS -- A Review of Kansas Wheat Quality -- LDPs Support Wheat Farmers' Income -- Dry Weather in Plains Affecting Winter Wheat Crop Conditions -- Forecasts for Foreign Competitors' Production Up Sharply This Month -- U.S. Export Forecast Revised Down 1 Million Tons U.S. Wheat Production Revised in November Crop Production Report U.S. wheat production is forecast at 2,308 million bushels in 1999, down 10 million from the earlier forecast released in the Small Grains 1999 Summary on September 30, 1999. The U.S. wheat yield is forecast at 42.7 bushels per acre, unchanged from last month and 0.5 bushel below last year's record. Imports are forecast at 105 million bushels, compared with 103 million in 1998/99. With larger beginning stocks, the U.S. wheat supply in 1999/2000 is forecast at 3,359 million bushels, down 10 million from last month and only marginally below 1998/99. Total U.S. exports are forecast at 1,100 million bushels, down 25 million from last month. Domestic use is unchanged this month. Ending stocks are forecast to hit 1,002 million bushels, up 15 million from a month earlier and the highest since 1987/88. The drop in the export forecast more than offset the decline in production. Higher Ending Stocks Will Keep Pressure on Wheat Prices Wheat prices have been under significant pressure due to the large supplies and relatively weak export demand. Stocks have rebounded rapidly from the recent low of 376 million bushels on June 1, 1996. The season-average price received by farmers is forecast between $2.45 and $2.55 per bushel, down 10 cents on the high end of the range from a month earlier. The preliminary farm price of all wheat in October 1999 was $2.49 per bushel, down from 2.57 reported for September 1999 and 28 cents below the price farmers received in October 1998 (see table 5). The average price received by farmers during the first 5 months of the 1999/2000 marketing season has averaged $2.46 per bushel. An estimated 55-60 percent of the 1999 crop was marketed during the first 5 months of the marketing year. If this is true, prices would have to average between $2.50 and $2.70 the rest of the marketing year for the seasonal-average price to fall within the projected range. Concerns about dry conditions in the hard red winter growing region have provided some strength to wheat futures prices in recent weeks, but a weak export demand is keeping price gains in check. Adverse Harvest Weather Changes Durum Picture The 1999 durum production season ended the way it began, with cool, wet conditions hampering progress. In North Dakota only one-third of the durum acres were harvested as of September 12 and only 81 percent of the harvest was completed by October 3, 15 points below the 5-year average. Persistent wet weather during the harvest season led to a larger acreage abandonment this year. The weather-related harvest delays in North Dakota led the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) to update projections of harvested acres, yield, and production for small grains in North Dakota and Montana. The wheat revisions affected only the durum estimates. Durum harvested area was reduced to 3.609 million acres, down 250,000 from the previous estimate, all in North Dakota; and projected yield was reduced 0.7 bushel, reflecting a 1-bushel decline in Montana and North Dakota. Durum production is now projected at 100.4 million bushels, down 10 million from the previous estimate and down 24 percent from the first estimate for the year of 132 million bushels released in July 1999. Weather Also Raises Quality Concerns for Durum and HRS The late harvest added variability to the quality of both the hard red spring (HRS) and durum crops in the Northern Plains. Earlier reports indicated that the adverse weather caused widespread bleaching and lower falling numbers (indicative of sprout damage) in mature durum. Falling number is a technical measure of the number of seconds bread dough made for a milled sample of wheat rises before it begins to fall. The 1999 Regional Crop Quality Report for durum wheat released by the North Dakota Wheat Commission (NDWC) reflected an analysis of 375 randomly collected samples from individual farms and country elevators in major durum growing areas in North Dakota and Montana. The samples were collected by the North Dakota Agricultural Statistics Service and analyzed by the North Dakota State University Cereal Science Department. The average protein content of the durum crop is strong in 1999 with an estimated regional average of 13.8 percent. That is lower than the average of 14.2 reported in 1998 but is above the 5-year average of 13.6 percent. Average test weight in 1999 is estimated at 59.8 pounds per bushel, 0.6 of a pound below 1998 and 0.3 below the 5 year average. The average falling number for the 1999 durum crop is 250 seconds, down significantly from the 369 seconds reported for 1998 and the 5-year average of 355. An estimated 59 percent of the regional durum crop was Hard Amber Durum (HAD, the subclass with 75 percent or more of hard and vitreous kernels of amber color that are preferred by durum millers), while an estimated 11 percent of the crop graded No. 2 Amber Durum (AD) or better. The AD subclass has 60 percent or more but less than 75 percent of hard and vitreous kernels of amber color. Delayed plantings, variable growing conditions, and a wet, prolonged harvest led to a decrease in planted and harvested areas for HRS, below-average yields, and a greater incidence of crop abandonment in 1999. Disease pressures were significantly lower than in previous years and the resulting crop has average to good quality. The 1999 Regional Crop Quality Report for HRS wheat reported the results of analysis of 1,094 samples randomly collected in the four-State HRS growing region in the Northern Plains (Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Montana). The average protein content of the HRS crop is strong in 1999 with an estimated regional average of 14.2 percent. That is lower than the average of 14.3 reported in 1998, but is above the 5-year average of 14.1 percent. Average test weight in 1999 is estimated at 59.3 pounds per bushel, 0.7 of a pound below 1998 and 0.8 below the 5-year average. The average falling number for the 1999 crop is 347 seconds, down significantly from the 422 seconds reported for 1998 and the 5-year average of 386. Sprout damage appears to be much more prevalent in 1999. An estimated 28 percent of the regional HRS crop graded No. 1 Dark Northern Spring (DNS). The subclass DNS is HRS wheat that has 75 percent or more dark, hard, and vitreous kernels (DHVK). An additional 9 percent of the samples graded No. 2 and 3 DNS. An estimated 24 percent of the samples graded No. 1 Northern Spring. The subclass NS is HRS wheat that has more than 25 percent DHVK but less than 75 percent DHVK. A Review of Kansas Wheat Quality The Kansas Department of Agriculture issued a press release on July 30 reporting on the quality of the 1999 crop in Kansas. That release indicated that protein and test weight in Kansas wheat are down in 1999 (see the August issue of the Wheat Outlook report). Preliminary data from 9,386 carlot samples randomly collected from 61 counties showed an average test weight of 60.2 pounds per bushel, compared with last year's average of 61.5 pounds and a 10-year average (1988-97) of 59.9 pounds. The drop in test weight will affect milling efficiency (throughput), but it should have a minimal impact on flour quality. Protein is averaging 11.3 percent in 1999, compared with 11.5 percent for 1998, and a 10-year average of 12.4 percent. This decline will raise premiums paid for carlots of HRW and hard red spring (HRS) with higher levels of protein. Millers are expected to blend higher percentages of high-protein HRS with the lower protein HRW class in the mill stream to produce flours of the desired protein level. LDPs Support Wheat Farmers' Income The 1996 Farm Act contained key policy tools to assist farmers when market prices are low. The key provisions are the "nonrecourse marketing assistance loans" (MALs)and "loan deficiency payments" (LDPs). Producers that entered into Production Flexibility Contracts with USDA are eligible to participate in these programs. See the October issue of the Wheat Outlook report for a more detailed discussion of how the program works. As of November 12, 1999, wheat producers had outstanding loans on 99 million bushels of 1999-crop wheat. The value of the outstanding loans totaled $254 million, yielding an average loan value of $2.57 per bushel. As of November 12, 1999, eligible wheat producers had collected $829 million in LDPs covering 1,714 million bushels of 1999-crop wheat or about 74 percent of the 1999 crop. The dollar amount increased $30 million since October 12, 1999. The average payment rate was 48 cents per bushel on 454,130 contracts. Only 55 percent of the 1998 crop received an LDP, so this year already, a larger percent of the 1999 crop has received LDPs than all of last year. Dry Weather in Plains Affecting Winter Wheat Crop Conditions As of November 8, 1999, 92 percent of the winter wheat crop had been seeded across the winter wheat belt, about the same as the 5-year average. Seeding was virtually complete in all the Great Plains States except Oklahoma and Texas. As of that date, 79 percent of the seeded area had emerged. Dry weather in the past month has affected the condition of the winter wheat crop at several locations. Overall, 50 percent of the winter wheat crop was rated good to excellent as of November 8, 16 percentage points below the ratings at the same time last year. The North Central and Central crop reporting districts in Kansas appear to be affected the most at this point. In the North Central district, 96 percent of the area is reported to be short or very short on topsoil moisture. In the Central District, 94 percent of the area is reported to be in the same situation. Forecasts for Foreign Competitors' Production Up Sharply This Month Forecast 1999/2000 wheat production was boosted this month for several major wheat exporting countries, most notably, Kazakstan, Argentina, Canada, and Australia. These countries produce mainly spring wheat in the Northern Hemisphere or are in the Southern Hemisphere, so the information about crop size comes later than for most of the winter wheat in the Northern Hemisphere. Good growing conditions throughout the season and exceptionally fine harvest weather produced an 11 million ton wheat crop in Kazakstan, up 3.5 million from last month's forecast and up dramatically from the drought-stricken 4.7 million a year ago. However, wheat is produced in northern Kazakstan, with most of the transportation links through Russia, and Russia has only very limited foreign exchange to spend on wheat. Logistical problems involved in exporting to the rest of the world are formidable, and given current low world wheat prices, it is not clear they can be profitably overcome. Kazakstan's exports are forecast up only 0.5 million tons this month to 2.8 million, while ending stocks are projected up 2.5 million to 5.3 million. Argentina is expected to produce 1.3 million tons more wheat than previously forecast because planted area was larger than expected. Low prices for competing crops and favorable-to- slightly-dry planting conditions encouraged additional wheat area. Exports are forecast at 9.5 million tons in 1999/2000, 0.5 million higher than a month ago, but much of the increased supply is expected to be used internally or be exported in the 2000/01 (July/June) marketing year. Canadian government statistics revealed that the wheat crop was 1 million tons bigger than forecast earlier. However, given sluggish world demand and strong competition among exporting countries, Canada's export forecast was left unchanged this month at 17.5 million tons. Canada's feed use and ending stocks were each boosted by 0.5 million tons. Generally favorable growing conditions, especially in western growing areas, boosted projected production for Australia by 0.5 million tons this month, to 23 million. With the additional supply, exports projected for Australia also increased 0.5 million tons to 18 million. The Australian Wheat Board has demonstrated that even in a competitive market Australia will sell most of its supplies, keeping ending stocks relatively low. Production forecasts were also revised up this month for Russia, Brazil and Eastern Europe, more than offsetting a downward adjustment for the European Union (EU). World production in 1999/2000 is expected to reach 585 million tons, up 7 million from last month, and only down 3 million from a year earlier. World wheat consumption is up 5 million tons this month and is projected to be unchanged from a year ago at 591 million tons. With consumption larger than production, global stocks are expected to decline in 1999/2000 to 130 million tons, just about equal to the average of the previous 10 years. U.S. Export Forecast Revised Down 1 Million Tons U.S. wheat exports in 1999/2000 (July/June) are forecast at 29.5 million tons, down 1 million from last month (1.1 billion bushels, down 25 million bushels on a June/May marketing year) because of expected tough competition for market share among exporters. Forecast exports by Argentina, Australia, and Kazakstan increased by 0.5 million tons each this month. Projected world trade increased by about 0.5 million tons as increased imports forecast for Brazil, Russia, and India more than offset lower imports forecast for China and Egypt. Brazil is now expected to become the world's largest wheat importer in 1999/2000, with local marketing year imports reaching 7 million tons. The U.S. government has worked to overcome phytosanitary barriers that have limited U.S. shipments to Brazil in recent years, and some sales have been made. Nonetheless, this crucial market continues to be dominated by Argentina, which enjoys low tariffs as part of a regional trade pact as well as a transportation advantage because of proximity. The pattern of sales and shipments reported in U.S. Export Sales illustrates the likely pattern of competition in 1999/2000 as Southern Hemisphere producers market wheat aggressively when new- crop supplies become available. As of November 4, shipments were virtually unchanged from the previous year. However, outstanding sales were down 23 percent from last year. Early-season shipments were actually stronger than reported in the U.S. Export Sales report because aid shipments and donations are not included in that report. Information Contacts: Mack N. Leath (domestic) (202) 694-5302 Edward W. Allen (international) (202) 694-5288 Electronic copies available at: World Wide Web Site www.econ.ag.gov ERS Autofax system (202) 694-5700 Document Number 12105 The next electronic Wheat Outlook report will be issued on December 14, 1999. The 1999 Wheat Yearbook is now available at: 1) ERS Autofax; Call (202) 694-5700 and select document 12100 for a complete directory of the historical tables. 2) ERS Homepage: www.econ.ag.gov/, select "Products and Services," then "Publications," "Field Crops," and "Wheat." Other wheat publications may be obtained from the ERS "Wheat Briefing Room" at http://www.econ.ag.gov/Briefing/wheat. Table 1--Wheat: U.S. market year supply and disappearance, 11/15/99 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Item 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99E 1999/00P ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Area: (mil. ac.) National total base 88.9 88.5 87.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 Eff.base, Ctr. acres, and 0,50/92,85 5.2 6.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 CRP base retired 10.8 10.8 10.6 10.1 9.7 0.0 Planted 70.3 69.0 75.1 70.4 65.8 63.0 Harvested 61.8 61.0 62.8 62.8 59.0 54.1 Yield: (bu/acre) 37.6 35.8 36.3 39.5 43.2 42.7 Supply: (mil. bu.) Beginning stocks 568.5 506.6 376.0 443.6 722.5 945.9 Production 2,321.0 2,182.7 2,277.4 2,481.5 2,547.3 2,308.0 Imports 1/ 91.9 67.9 92.3 94.9 103.4 105.0 Total supply 2,981.4 2,757.2 2,745.7 3,020.0 3,373.2 3,358.9 Use: Food 853.0 882.9 890.7 914.1 903.2 915.0 Seed 89.0 103.5 102.3 92.5 80.9 92.0 Feed and residual 344.5 153.7 307.6 250.5 401.1 250.0 Total domestic 1,286.6 1,140.1 1,300.6 1,257.1 1,385.3 1,257.0 Exports 1/ 1,188.3 1,241.1 1,001.5 1,040.4 1,042.0 1,100.0 Total use 2,474.8 2,381.2 2,302.1 2,297.5 2,427.3 2,357.0 Ending stocks: 506.6 376.0 443.6 722.5 945.9 1,001.9 Farmer-owned reserve 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 CCC inventory 2/ 142.0 118.0 93.0 94.0 128.0 100.0 Free stocks 364.6 258.0 350.6 628.5 817.9 901.9 Stocks-to-use ratio 20.5 15.8 19.3 31.4 39.0 42.5 Prices: ($/bu.) Target price 4.00 4.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Loan rate 2.58 2.58 2.58 2.58 2.58 2.58 Contract rate 3/ 0.61 0.00 0.87 0.63 0.66 0.64 Ave. farm price 3.45 4.55 4.30 3.38 2.65 2.45-2.55 Contract payments (mil. dollars) 3/ 1,146 100 1,941 1,414 1,943 2,313 Market value of production (mil. dollars) 8,007 9,787 9,782 8,387 6,750 5,770 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Source: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, WAOB, USDA. Totals may not add due to rounding. E=Estimated, P=Projected, N.A.=not applicable. 1/ Imports and exports include flour and other products expressed in wheat equivalent. 2/ Includes Food Security Reserve. 3/ Deficiency payments prior to 1996/97. Table 2--Wheat: U.S. market year supply and disappearance, 11/15/99 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1998/99E HRW HRS SRW White Durum All wheat ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Million acres Area: Planted 32.36 14.85 10.18 4.67 3.80 65.82 Harvested 27.34 14.41 9.06 4.46 3.73 59.00 Yield: (bu/acre) 43.14 33.75 48.86 67.42 37.03 43.17 Million bushels Supply: Beg. stocks 306.7 220.0 80.0 90.0 25.8 722.5 Production 1,179.5 486.4 442.7 300.7 138.1 2,547.3 Imports 2/ 0.9 58.8 0.0 10.5 33.3 103.4 Total 1487.0 765.2 522.7 401.2 197.2 3373.2 Utilization: Food 386.0 225.0 150.0 75.0 67.3 903.2 Seed 34.8 18.4 17.6 6.1 4.0 80.9 Feed and residual 179.4 43.7 116.1 35.1 26.7 401.1 Total domestic 600.2 287.2 283.7 116.2 98.1 1,385.3 Exports 2/ 451.7 245.0 103.0 198.0 44.3 1,042.0 Total 1,051.9 532.2 386.7 314.2 142.4 2,427.3 Ending stocks: 435.1 233.0 136.0 87.0 54.8 945.9 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1999/00P HRW HRS SRW White Durum All wheat ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Million acres Area: Planted 30.88 14.31 9.03 4.50 4.08 63.00 Harvested 24.53 13.99 7.92 4.13 3.61 54.07 Yield: (bu/acre) 43.01 32.45 57.05 59.75 27.82 42.69 Million bushels Supply: Beg. stocks 435.1 233.0 136.0 87.0 54.8 945.9 Production 1,055.0 454.0 451.8 246.8 100.4 2,308.0 Imports 2/ 1.0 59.0 0.0 8.0 37.0 105.0 Total 1491.1 746.0 587.8 341.8 192.2 3358.9 Utilization: Total domestic 519.5 283.5 268.5 96.5 89.0 1,257.0 Exports 2/ 520.0 245.0 135.0 160.0 40.0 1,100.0 Total 1,039.5 528.5 403.5 256.5 129.0 2,357.0 Ending stocks: 451.6 217.5 184.3 85.3 63.2 1,001.9 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Source: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, WAOB, USDA. Totals may not add due to rounding. E=Estimated, P=Projected. 1/ ERS estimates of area, yield, and domestic use. 2/ Imports and exports include flour and other products expressed in wheat equivalent. Table 3--Wheat: Quarterly supply and disappearance (1,000 bu.), 11/15/99 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Market Produc- Imports Supply Food Seed Feed Exports Ending Year tion 2/ 2/ stocks ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Million bushels 1996/97: Jun-Aug 2,277 15 2,668 224 9 378 334 1,724 Sep-Nov --- 21 1,745 234 60 (76) 308 1,219 Dec-Feb --- 27 1,246 213 2 30 179 822 Mar-May --- 30 852 221 32 (24) 180 444 Mktg. year 2,277 92 2,746 891 102 308 1,002 444 1997/98 E: Jun-Aug 2,481 23 2,948 228 3 352 288 2,076 Sep-Nov --- 23 2,099 239 59 (113) 296 1,619 Dec-Feb --- 24 1,643 219 2 0 255 1,167 Mar-May --- 26 1,192 228 29 11 201 722 Mktg. year 2,481 95 3,020 914 92 251 1,040 722 1998/99 P: Jun-Aug 2,547 24 3,294 226 1 425 257 2,385 Sep-Nov --- 24 2,409 241 55 (74) 292 1,896 Dec-Feb --- 28 1,924 212 1 14 246 1,450 Mar-May --- 27 1,478 225 24 37 247 946 Mktg. year 2,547 103 3,373 903 81 401 1,042 946 1999/00 P: Jun-Aug 2,308 31 3,285 226 7 278 325 2,449 Mktg. year 2,308 105 3,359 915 92 250 1,100 1,002 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Totals might not add due to rounding. E=Estimated, P=Projected. 1/ Imports and exports include flour and selected products expressed in wheat equivalent. Table 4--Monthly food use estimates for last 12 months, (1,000 bu.), 11/15/99 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- | September October November December January February ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Mill grind 1/ + | 75,117 83,548 79,969 75,063 69,118 68,570 Food imports + | 1,744 2,076 2,020 2,090 1,996 1,846 Non-flour | food use 2/ + | 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 Food exports - | 3,151 4,056 2,524 6,721 2,755 3,535 Food use* | 75,711 83,569 81,465 72,431 70,360 68,881 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- | March April May June July August ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Mill grind 1/ + | 72,479 74,352 76,022 72,734 N.A. N.A. Food imports + | 1,945 1,915 1,890 2,030 1,787 1,840 Non-flour | food use 2/ + | 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 Food exports - | 4,323 3,304 2,107 6,113 5,289 3,932 Food use* = | 72,370 74,963 77,805 70,651 N.A. N.A. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Census. Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Wheat flour and products converted to wheat grain equivalent. 2/ Non-flour food use is ERS estimate. *Monthly food use and durum food use estimates since 1990/91 are available in ERS Autofax Document 12180, and electronically at www.econ.ag.gov/briefing/wheat/data. N.A.-not available. Table 5--Wheat: Farm prices and prices at selected markets ($/bu.), 11/15/99 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- | ---------------------- Farm prices ------------------------- | All wheat | Winter | Durum | Other spring Month | 98/99 99/00 | 98/99 99/00 | 98/99 99/00 | 98/99 99/00 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Jun | 2.77 2.50 | 2.68 2.32 | 3.98 2.93 | 3.22 3.01 Jul | 2.56 2.23 | 2.47 2.13 | 3.39 2.89 | 3.08 2.93 Aug | 2.38 2.52 | 2.25 2.34 | 3.23 2.74 | 2.69 2.85 Sep | 2.39 2.57 | 2 29 2.46 | 3.03 2.30 | 2.62 2.86 Oct 1/| 2.77 2.49 | 2.66 2.33 | 3.04 2.57 | 3.04 2.78 Nov | 2.95 . | 2.76 . | 3.08 . | 3.23 . Dec | 2.86 . | 2.68 . | 3.05 . | 3.19 . Jan | 2.84 . | 2.70 . | 3.20 . | 3.12 . Feb | 2.73 . | 2.55 . | 2.84 . | 3.09 . Mar | 2.65 . | 2.53 . | 2.82 . | 3.00 . Apr | 2.62 . | 2.48 . | 2.80 . | 2.95 . May | 2.49 . | 2.34 . | 2.84 . | 2.92 . | KC HRW #1 | KC HRW #1 | St. Louis | Portland | ordinary | 13% prot. | #2 SRW | #1 soft white Month | 98/99 99/00 | 98/99 99/00 | 98/99 99/00 | 98/99 99/00 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Jun | 3.16 2.93 | 3.57 3.22 | 2.66 2.31 | 2.93 3.17 Jul | 3.02 2.68 | 3.57 3.39 | 2.43 N.A. | 2.72 3.06 Aug | 2.74 2.85 | 3.12 3.42 | 2.26 2.22 | 2.66 3.14 Sep | 2.81 2.92 | 3.17 3.52 | 2.12 2.48 | 2.69 3.25 Oct | 3.30 2.80 | 3.67 3.40 | 2.23 2.31 | 3.15 3.24 Nov | 3.42 . | 3.89 . | 2.41 . | 3.15 . Dec | 3.31 . | 3.74 . | 2.54 . | 3.12 . Jan | 3.27 . | 3.61 . | 2.51 . | 3.15 . Feb | 3.05 . | 3.35 . | 2.33 . | 3.10 . Mar | 3.02 . | 3.34 . | 2.44 . | 3.22 . Apr | 2.94 . | 3.34 . | 2.44 . | 3.23 . May | 2.89 . | 3.28 . | 2.45 . | 3.17 . | Minneapolis | Minneapolis | FOB Gulf | Average EEP | DNS 14% prot. | #1 durum | $/ton (HRW) | bonus $/ton 2/ Month | 98/99 99/00 | 98/99 99/00 | 98/99 99/00 | 98/99 99/00 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Jun | 4.01 3.73 | 5.00 N/Q | 120.52 110.60 | 0.00 0.00 Jul | 3.89 3.68 | 4.59 3.92 | 117.95 101.04 | 0.00 0.00 Aug | 3.58 3.58 | 4.20 3.73 | 108.76 109.86 | 0.00 0.00 Sep | 3.53 3.55 | 3.78 4.14 | 108.03 113.17 | 0.00 0.00 Oct | 4.03 3.70 | 4.04 4.46 | 126.03 107.29 | 0.00 0.00 Nov | 4.15 . | 4.15 . | 131.18 . | 0.00 . Dec | 3.97 . | 4.05 . | 126.40 . | 0.00 . Jan | 3.92 . | 3.91 . | 125.30 . | 0.00 . Feb | 3.78 . | 3.67 . | 116.48 . | 0.00 . Mar | 3.79 . | 3.65 . | 117.95 . | 0.00 . Apr | 3.65 . | 3.61 . | 113.90 . | 0.00 . May | 3.61 . | NQ . | 112.07 . | 0.00 . ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Mid-month price for current month of the 1999/00 marketing year. 2/ Weighted average, all classes. N.A.-not available. N/Q-no quote. Source: NASS & AMS, USDA. Table 6--Wheat: Exports and imports for last 6 months, 11/15/99 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- U.S. wheat exports, (1,000 bu.) 1998/99 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Item 1/ | March April May June July August ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Wheat grain | 65,522 86,066 85,057 90,594 110,814 107,168 Wheat flour | 4,126 3,105 1,948 5,900 5,085 3,673 Products | 271 248 214 520 571 656 Total | 69,919 89,419 87,219 97,013 116,471 111,496 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- U.S. wheat imports, (1,000 bu.) 1998/99 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Item 1/ | March April May June July August -------------|--------------------------------------------------------------- Wheat grain | 6,929 5,630 8,906 7,565 9,405 8,201 Wheat flour | 739 707 743 742 696 687 Products | 1,208 1,215 1,147 1,292 1,093 1,155 Total | 8,876 7,552 10,796 9,599 11,194 10,043 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Census. 1/ Wheat flour and products converted to wheat grain equivalent. Totals may not add due to rounding. Monthly and quarterly estimates since 1995/96 are available in ERS Autofax Document 12181, and electronically at www.econ.ag.gov/briefing/wheat/data. Note: Bold April numbers have been revised. Table 7--Wheat: U.S. exports, Census and Export Sales comparison, 11/15/99 1/ ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- | 1997/98 | 1998/99 | 1999/2000 (as of 11/4/99) |--------------------------------------------------------------- | |Ship- |Outstanding| Total | Shipments |ments | sales | ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Data | | Export | | Export | Export Source | Census | sales |Census | sales | Sales ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- | --1,000 metric tons-- Country: | Egypt | 4,837 | 4,982 | 4,516 | 4,397 | 1,884 220 2,104 EU | 1,302 | 1,298 | 1,421 | 1,407 | 624 243 867 Israel | 830 | 786 | 716 | 734 | 383 142 526 Japan | 3,169 | 3,373 | 3,076 | 3,201 | 1,160 521 1,681 S. Korea | 1,446 | 1,400 | 1,534 | 1,366 | 622 258 880 Mexico | 1,156 | 1,151 | 1,734 | 1,860 | 827 236 1,063 Nigeria | 730 | 817 | 1,238 | 1,300 | 579 135 714 Pakistan | 2,180 | 2,232 | 867 | 844 | 401 50 451 Philippines | 1,458 | 1,531 | 1,682 | 1,749 | 799 215 1,014 Taiwan | 1,003 | 975 | 889 | 920 | 361 78 439 Total grain | 27,295 | 27,518 | 27,202 | 25,555 |12,060 3,131 15,190 Total(incl) | | | | | products)1/| 28,308 | 27,626 | 28,359 | 25,648 |12,089 3,138 15,227 USDA forecast| | | | | of Census| | | | | 29,937 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/Export sales and shipments from USDA's monthly U.S. Export Sales report. END_OF_FILE