WHEAT OUTLOOK December 14, 1999 December 1999, WHS-1299 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WHEAT OUTLOOK is issued 11 times a year by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. Electronic release only; no published copies are available. WHEAT OUTLOOK is supplemented by an annual WHEAT YEARBOOK. The yearbook summary for 1999 was released on March 26, 1999. Yearbooks are available in print from ERS-NASS Order Desk. For the 1999 issue, call 1-800-999-6779 (703-605-6220) and ask for stock #ERS-WHS-1999, $21. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Highlights -- Higher Stocks and Strong Competition Will Limit Price Prospects -- Total Loan Deficiency Payments Continue To Increase -- Dry Weather in Plains Affecting Winter Wheat Crop Conditions -- Import Projections Reduced This Month -- Food Use Estimate for 1998/99 Is Revised Upward -- The 1999/2000 Food Use Projection Is Reduced This Month -- World Wheat Trade Forecast Up, Competition Fierce -- Forecast U.S. 1999/2000 Exports Down This Month ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Higher Stocks and Strong Competition Will Limit Price Prospects Wheat prices continue to be pressured by large supplies, high projected carryover stocks, and relatively weak export demand prospects. Stocks are forecast up another 25 million bushels this month because of lower projected exports in the 1999/2000 marketing year. Foreign competition is cutting into U.S. export potential. The season-average price received by farmers is forecast between $2.45 and $2.55 per bushel, unchanged from a month earlier. Concerns about dry conditions in the hard red winter growing region have provided some strength to wheat futures prices in November, but rain and snowfall over much of the Southern Plains in recent weeks have reduced those concerns. In addition, a weak export demand and higher production estimates for major competing exporting nations will limit potential price gains for the remainder of the marketing season. The preliminary farm price of all wheat in November 1999 was $2.54 per bushel, down from $2.58 reported for October and 41 cents below a year earlier (see table 5). The preliminary farm price for winter wheat for November dropped 11 cents from the October average price of $2.47. Weather during the late harvest damaged the quality of the 1999 durum crop, causing the U.S. average price received by farmers for durum to decline to $2.30 per bushel in September and hit a seasonal low of $2.17 in October. In contrast, the relatively tight supply of No. 1 hard amber durum (milling quality) has increased the price at Minneapolis to $4.80 in November, up from $3.73 in August (table 5). The October price is the lowest monthly average farm price recorded for durum since the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) resumed the reporting of a monthly farm price for durum in June 1981. The average price received by farmers for all wheat during the first 6 months of the 1999/2000 marketing season was $2.49 per bushel. Sales during the first 6 months of the marketing season averaged about 61 percent of the crop during the last 5 years. If the percentage of the 1999 crop sold during this period is the same, prices would have to average between $2.39 and $2.64 the rest of the marketing year for the season-average price to be within the projected range of $2.45-$2.55. Total Loan Deficiency Payments Continue To Increase The 1996 Farm Act contained key policy tools to assist farmers when market prices are low. The key provisions are the "nonrecourse marketing assistance loans" (MALs) and "loan deficiency payments" (LDPs). Producers that entered into Production Flexibility Contracts with USDA are eligible to participate in these programs. As of December 13, 1999, wheat producers had outstanding loans on 107 million bushels of 1999-crop wheat. The value of the outstanding loans totaled $274 million, yielding an average loan value of $2.57 per bushel. On the same date, eligible wheat producers had collected $851 million in LDPs covering 1,789 million bushels of 1999-crop wheat or about 77 percent of the 1999 crop. The dollar amount increased another $24 million from a month ago, and the average payment rate is 48 cents per bushel on 471,179 contracts. Only 55 percent of the 1998 crop (1,412 million bushels) received an LDP, so this year a larger percent of the 1999 crop has already received LDPs than all of last year. The average payment rate was 29 cents per bushel on the 1998 crop. Dry Weather in Plains Affecting Winter Wheat Crop Conditions According the latest Crop Progress report released by NASS on November 29, 1999, 97 percent of the winter wheat crop had been seeded across the winter wheat belt, 1 percentage point below the 5-year average. Seeding was virtually complete in all the Great Plains States except Oklahoma and Texas. Seeding was still underway in California, Georgia, and North Carolina. The report indicated that 91 percent of the seeded area had emerged. Dry weather in the past 2 months has delayed emergence and has affected the condition of the winter wheat crop at several locations in the Great Plains. Overall, 43 percent of the winter wheat crop was rated good to excellent, 29 percentage points below the ratings at the same time last year. In Kansas, the leading winter-wheat-producing State, only 94 percent of the seeded area had emerged. In the western half of the State, emergence has been slowed by the dry conditions. Statewide, 54 percent of the Kansas land area was reported as being very short or short of topsoil moisture, down from 84 percent the previous week. Recent rainfall has been beneficial but much more is needed. Only 36 percent of the Kansas crop was reported in good to excellent condition, compared to 73 percent the previous year. The late emergence and poor crop condition raise concerns about the possible greater danger of winterkill as the winter wheat crop enters the dormant stage in the growth cycle. Adequate snow cover will be critical for protecting the crop from winterkill this year. The Crop Progress report released on November 29 was the last report of the year. Individual States will release periodic winter wheat crop ratings this winter, but NASS will not resume publication of the national Crop Progress report until April 3, 2000. The Oklahoma Agricultural Statistics Service released the final weekly Crop Weather report for that State on December 6, 1999. The report indicated that late-week rain and snow boosted soil moisture supplies but cold weather restricted wheat growth. The report indicated that 47 percent of the crop rated good to excellent, up from 43 percent the previous week. In Texas, the Crop Weather report released Texas Agricultural Statistics Service on December 6 indicated that winter wheat crop conditions had deteriorated since the final national Crop Progress report was released by NASS. Only 10 percent of the crop rated good to excellent, down from 14 percent the previous week. Twenty percent of the Texas crop was rated very poor. Import Projections Reduced This Month After a fast start, the pace of U.S. wheat imports slowed dramatically in September (see table 6). As a result, projected imports of wheat and wheat products were lowered to 100 million bushels this month. Food Use Estimate for 1998/99 Is Revised Upward The Flour Milling Products report (MQ311A(99)-3, formerly Series No. MQ20A)issued by the U.S. Census Bureau in November 1999 contained new data for the third quarter of calendar 1999 and revised data for the first two quarters. The report had some positive news in that wheat mill grind increased 1.5 percent in the first 9 months of 1999, compared to the same period in 1998. An upward revision in the mill grind data for the first two calendar quarters of 1999 caused an upward revision of 4.8 million bushels in the estimated food use for the 1998/99 marketing year. The 1998/99 food use estimate has been increased to 908.0 million bushels this month (see table 3), up from USDA's November forecast of 903.2 million. This revised estimate is still 6.1 million bushels below the record food use in 1997/98. The volume of wheat ground by millers in 1998/99 was 4.1 million bushels more than in 1997/98, but larger flour exports were offsetting and domestic food use declined. The 1999/2000 Food Use Projection Is Reduced This Month Estimated total wheat mill grind for the first 4 months of the current marketing year is 9.4 million above the same period last year. However, food use for the same period is down 3.6 million bushels because strong flour exports during this marketing year (see tables 4 and 6) have more than offset the larger mill grind. Unless the Census Bureau increases its wheat mill grind estimate for the third calendar quarter when it releases its report for the fourth quarter in early February 2000, the food use picture for the 1999/2000 marketing year is for little or no growth. Mill grind numbers for calendar year 1998 are subject to further revision in the annual Flour Milling Products report that will be released later in 2000. The volume of durum wheat ground during the first two calendar quarters of 1999 was not revised, so durum food use in 1998/99 remains at 67.3 million bushels, the lowest since the 1990/91 marketing year. Estimated food use of durum in the first 4 months of the 1999/2000 marketing year is 1.6 million bushels below the same period last year. As a result, projected food use of durum was reduced to 65 million bushels this month, bringing projected total wheat food use for 1999/2000 down to 910 million bushels. World Wheat Trade Forecast Up, Competition Fierce Production problems in some major importing countries and larger forecast production for some foreign exporters boosted world trade projections this month. Wheat production in Canada was increased 850,000 tons to 26.85 million based on recently released government data. Generally favorable harvest conditions helped bring in a larger than expected crop, despite some late plantings. With harvest underway in Argentina, the 1999/2000 wheat crop increased 0.5 million to 14.5 million tons because of mostly favorable weather. Production in the EU was also forecast slightly higher this month. However, increased exporters' production was more than offset by reduced production reported for Russia (down 1.5 million tons) and Pakistan, leaving global production forecast down slightly this month. Russia's 1999/2000 imports are up 0.5 million tons this month because of tight supplies and the availability of ample wheat supplies in Kazakstan, where the recent internal price declines are enough to offset high transport costs, boosting export prospects. Continued dryness across much of the Middle East is likely to encourage increased imports, although it is too early to judge the effect on wheat production in 2000. Large recent purchases by Iran and Israel boosted their import prospects. Forecast imports also increased for Bangladesh and India, where the pace of buying has been stronger than expected, possibly spurred by low international prices. India recently imposed a 50-percent duty on wheat imports on cargos of ships filing bills of entry after December 1, 1999. However, large volumes entered the country before that date. South Korean feed wheat imports have not kept pace with expectations, and coupled with lower wheat feeding prospects in Russia, led to in a drop in global wheat feed use of 1.7 million tons. The reduced consumption forecast contributed to this month's larger world ending stocks. Forecast U.S. 1999/2000 Exports Down This Month U.S. exports were reduced 0.5 million tons this month because of increasing competition. Competitors' 1999/2000 exports were boosted this month for Canada, up 1.0 million tons; Eastern Europe, up 0.7 million because of stronger than expected shipments; Kazakstan, up 0.5 million; and Argentina, up 0.5 million. Although forecast world wheat trade increased 2.0 million tons this month, the increase in competitors' exports is expected to reduce the U.S. share. Competition during the last half of 1999/2000 is likely to be particularly intense because the increased production in Argentina and Australia becomes available for shipment. As of December 2, 1999, outstanding sales of U.S. wheat reported in U.S. Export Sales were down 7 percent compared to the same date last year. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Information Contacts: Mack N. Leath (Report Coordinator) (202) 694-5302 Gary Vocke (Domestic) (202) 694-5285 Edward W. Allen (International) (202) 694-5288 Jenny Gonzales (Data Coordinator (202) 694-5296 Electronic copies available at: World Wide Web Site wwwn.econ.ag.gov ERS Autofax system (202) 694-5700 Document Number 12105 The next electronic Wheat Outlook report will be issued on January 14, 2000. The 1999 Wheat Yearbook data tables are available at: 1) ERS AutoFax; Call (202) 694-5700 and select document 12100 for a complete directory of the historical tables. 2) ERS Web Site: www.econ.ag.gov/, select "Data Products," then "Field Crops," then "Wheat," then "Wheat Yearbook." 3) ERS Web Site: www.econ.ag.gov/, select "Wheat" Briefing Room, then "Data," then "Wheat Yearbook," and select desired table. The "README.TXT" file contains a list of appendix and text tables by title. Other wheat articles and publications may be obtained from the ERS "Wheat Briefing Room" at http://www.econ.ag.gov/briefing/wheat. Look in "Articles and Publications" section. Table 1--Wheat: U.S. market year supply and disappearance, 12/13/99 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Item 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99E 1999/00P ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Area: (mil. ac.) National total base 88.9 88.5 87.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 Eff.base/Ctr. acres 0,50/92,85 5.2 6.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 CRP base retired 10.8 10.8 10.6 10.1 9.7 0.0 Planted 70.3 69.0 75.1 70.4 65.8 63.0 Harvested 61.8 61.0 62.8 62.8 59.0 54.1 Yield: (bu./acre) 37.6 35.8 36.3 39.5 43.2 42.7 Supply: (mil. bu.) Beginning stocks 568.5 506.6 376.0 443.6 722.5 945.9 Production 2,321.0 2,182.7 2,277.4 2,481.5 2,547.3 2,308.0 Imports 1/ 91.9 67.9 92.3 94.9 103.4 100.0 Total supply 2,981.4 2,757.2 2,745.7 3,020.0 3,373.2 3,353.9 Use: Food 853.0 882.9 890.7 914.1 908.0 910.0 Seed 89.0 103.5 102.3 92.5 80.7 92.0 Feed and residual 344.5 153.7 307.6 250.5 396.5 250.0 Total domestic 1,286.6 1,140.1 1,300.6 1,257.1 1,385.3 1,252.0 Exports 1/ 1,188.3 1,241.1 1,001.5 1,040.4 1,042.0 1,075.0 Total use 2,474.8 2,381.2 2,302.1 2,297.5 2,427.3 2,327.0 Ending stocks: 506.6 376.0 443.6 722.5 945.9 1,026.9 Farmer-owned reserve 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 CCC inventory 2/ 142.0 118.0 93.0 94.0 128.0 100.0 Free stocks 364.6 258.0 350.6 628.5 817.9 926.9 Stocks-to-use ratio 20.5 15.8 19.3 31.4 39.0 44.1 Prices: (dols./bu.) Target price 4.00 4.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Loan rate 2.58 2.58 2.58 2.58 2.58 2.58 Contract rate 3/ 0.61 0.00 0.87 0.63 0.66 0.64 Ave. farm price 3.45 4.55 4.30 3.38 2.65 2.45-2.55 Contract payments (mil. dollars) 3/ 1,146 100 1,941 1,414 1,943 2,313 Market value of production (mil. dollars) 8,007 9,787 9,782 8,387 6,750 5,770 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Source: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, WAOB, USDA. Totals may not add due to rounding. E=Estimated, P=Projected, N.A.=not applicable. 1/ Imports and exports include flour and other products expressed in wheat equivalent. 2/ Includes Food Security Reserve. 3/ Deficiency payments prior to 1996/97. Table 2--Wheat by class: U.S. market year supply and disappearance, 12/13/99 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1998/99 Mktg. year E: HRW HRS SRW White Durum All wheat ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Area: 1/ Million acres Planted 32.36 14.85 10.18 4.67 3.80 65.82 Harvested 27.34 14.41 9.06 4.46 3.73 59.00 Bushels per acre Yield: 1/ 43.14 33.75 48.86 67.42 37.03 43.17 Supply: Million bushels Beg. stocks 1/ 306.7 220.0 80.0 90.0 25.8 722.5 Production 1,179.5 486.4 442.7 300.7 138.1 2,547.3 Imports 2/ 0.9 58.8 0.0 10.5 33.3 103.4 Total 1487.0 765.2 522.7 401.2 197.2 3373.2 Utilization: Food 1/ 385.8 230.0 150.0 75.0 67.3 908.0 Seed 1/ 34.8 18.3 17.3 6.2 4.1 80.7 Feed and residual 1/ 179.6 38.9 116.3 35.0 26.7 396.5 Total domestic 1/ 600.2 287.2 283.7 116.2 98.1 1,385.3 Exports 2/ 451.7 245.0 103.0 198.0 44.3 1,042.0 Total 1,051.9 532.2 386.7 314.2 142.4 2,427.3 Ending stocks: 1/ 435.1 233.0 136.0 87.0 54.8 945.9 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1999/00 Mktg. year P HRW HRS SRW White Durum All wheat ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Area: 1/ Million acres Planted 30.88 14.51 9.03 4.50 4.08 63.00 Harvested 24.46 13.95 7.92 4.13 3.61 54.07 Bushels per acre Yield: 1/ 43.01 32.45 57.05 59.75 24.79 42.69 Supply: Million bushels Beg. stocks 1/ 435.1 233.0 136.0 87.0 54.8 945.9 Production 1,055.0 454.0 451.8 246.8 100.4 2,308.0 Imports 2/ 1.0 57.0 0.0 7.0 35.0 100.0 Total 1491.1 744.0 587.8 340.8 190.2 3353.9 Utilization: Total domestic 1/ 519.5 283.5 268.5 96.5 84.0 1,252.0 Exports 2/ 515.0 235.0 135.0 150.0 40.0 1,075.0 Total 1,034.5 518.5 403.5 246.5 124.0 2,327.0 Ending stocks: 1/ 456.6 225.5 184.3 94.3 66.2 1,026.9 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Source: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, WAOB, USDA. Totals may not add due to rounding. E=Estimated. P=Projected. 1/ ERS estimates of area, yield, domestic use, and stocks by class. 2/ Imports and exports include flour and other products converted to wheat equivalent units. Table 3--Wheat: Quarterly supply and disappearance, 12/13/99 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Market Produc- Imports Supply Food Seed Feed Exports Ending Year tion 1/ 1/ stocks ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Million bushels 1996/97: Jun-Aug 2,277 15 2,668 224 9 378 334 1,724 Sep-Nov --- 21 1,745 234 60 (76) 308 1,219 Dec-Feb --- 27 1,246 213 2 30 179 822 Mar-May --- 30 852 221 32 (24) 180 444 Mktg. year 2,277 92 2,746 891 102 308 1,002 444 1997/98: Jun-Aug 2,481 23 2,948 228 3 352 288 2,076 Sep-Nov --- 23 2,099 239 59 (113) 296 1,619 Dec-Feb --- 24 1,643 219 2 0 255 1,167 Mar-May --- 26 1,192 228 29 11 201 722 Mktg. year 2,481 95 3,020 914 92 251 1,040 722 1998/99 E: Jun-Aug 2,547 24 3,294 226 1 425 257 2,385 Sep-Nov --- 24 2,409 241 55 (74) 292 1,896 Dec-Feb --- 28 1,924 213 1 12 246 1,450 Mar-May --- 27 1,478 228 23 33 247 946 Mktg. year 2,547 103 3,373 908 81 396 1,042 946 1999/00 P: Jun-Aug 2,308 31 3,285 224 7 280 325 2,449 Mktg. year 2,308 100 3,354 910 92 250 1,075 1,027 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Totals might not add due to rounding. E=Estimated, P=Projected. 1/ Imports and exports include flour and products converted to wheat equivalent units. Table 4--Monthly food use estimates for last 12 months, (1,000 bu.), 12/14/99 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Item | October November December January February March ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Mill grind 1/ + | 83,548 79,969 75,063 69,910 69,355 73,582 Food imports 2/ + | 2,076 2,020 2,090 1,996 1,846 1,945 Non-flour | food use 3/ + | 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 Food exports 2/ - | 4,056 2,524 6,721 2,755 3,535 4,323 Food use* = | 83,569 81,465 72,431 71,151 69,666 73,203 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Item | April May June July August September ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Mill grind 1/ + | 75,533 77,229 73,889 73,438 80,263 77,179 Food imports 2/ + | 1,915 1,890 2,030 1,787 1,840 1,642 Non-flour | food use 3/ + | 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 Food exports 2/ - | 3,304 2,107 6,113 5,289 3,932 6,904 Food use* = | 76,144 79,012 71,806 71,937 80,171 73,917 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Census. Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ 1999 mill grind estimates are revised. 2/ Wheat flour and products converted to wheat grain equivalent. 3/ ERS estimate of cereal use. Table 5--Wheat: Farm prices and prices at selected markets ($/bu.), 12/14/99 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | ---------------------- Farm prices ------------------------- Month | All wheat | Winter | Durum | Other spring | 98/99 99/00 | 98/99 99/00 | 98/99 99/00 | 98/99 99/00 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ June | 2.77 2.50 | 2.68 2.32 | 3.98 2.93 | 3.22 3.01 July | 2.56 2.23 | 2.47 2.13 | 3.39 2.89 | 3.08 2.93 August | 2.38 2.52 | 2.25 2.34 | 3.23 2.74 | 2.69 2.85 September | 2.39 2.57 | 2 29 2.46 | 3.03 2.30 | 2.62 2.86 October | 2.77 2.58 | 2.66 2.47 | 3.04 2.17 | 3.04 2.80 November 1/| 2.95 2.54 | 2.76 2.36 | 3.08 2.43 | 3.23 2.87 December | 2.86 . | 2.68 . | 3.05 . | 3.19 . January | 2.84 . | 2.70 . | 3.20 . | 3.12 . February | 2.73 . | 2.55 . | 2.84 . | 3.09 . March | 2.65 . | 2.53 . | 2.82 . | 3.00 . April | 2.62 . | 2.48 . | 2.80 . | 2.95 . May | 2.49 . | 2.34 . | 2.84 . | 2.92 . ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | KC HRW #1 | KC HRW #1 | Minneapolis | Minneapolis Month | ordinary | 13% protein | DNS 14% prot. | #1 HAD milling | 98/99 99/00 | 98/99 99/00 | 98/99 99/00 | 98/99 99/00 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ June | 3.16 2.93 | 3.57 3.22 | 4.01 3.73 | 5.00 N/Q July | 3.02 2.68 | 3.57 3.39 | 3.89 3.68 | 4.59 3.92 August | 2.74 2.85 | 3.12 3.42 | 3.58 3.58 | 4.20 3.73 September | 2.81 2.92 | 3.17 3.52 | 3.53 3.55 | 3.78 4.14 October | 3.30 2.80 | 3.67 3.40 | 4.03 3.70 | 4.04 4.46 November | 3.42 2.89 | 3.89 3.54 | 4.15 3.78 | 4.15 4.80 December | 3.31 . | 3.74 . | 3.97 . | 4.05 . January | 3.27 . | 3.61 . | 3.92 . | 3.91 . February | 3.05 . | 3.35 . | 3.78 . | 3.67 . March | 3.02 . | 3.34 . | 3.79 . | 3.65 . April | 2.94 . | 3.34 . | 3.65 . | 3.61 . May | 2.89 . | 3.28 . | 3.61 . | N/Q . ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | St. Louis | Portland | Portland | FOB Gulf Month | #2 SRW | #1 soft white | #1 HRW Ord. | $/ton (HRW) | 98/99 99/00 | 98/99 99/00 | 98/99 99/00 | 98/99 99/00 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- June | 2.66 2.31 | 2.93 3.17 | 3.37 3.10 | 120.52 110.60 July | 2.43 N.A. | 2.72 3.06 | 3.04 2.83 | 117.95 101.04 August | 2.26 2.22 | 2.66 3.14 | 2.93 3.00 | 108.76 109.86 September | 2.12 2.48 | 2.69 3.25 | 3.06 3.12 | 108.03 113.17 October | 2.23 2.31 | 3.15 3.24 | 3.56 2.97 | 126.03 107.29 November | 2.41 2.50 | 3.15 3.09 | 3.66 2.98 | 131.18 108.76 December | 2.54 . | 3.12 . | 3.62 . | 126.40 . January | 2.51 . | 3.15 . | 3.58 . | 125.30 . February | 2.33 . | 3.10 . | 3.36 . | 116.48 . March | 2.44 . | 3.22 . | 3.43 . | 117.95 . April | 2.44 . | 3.23 . | 3.31 . | 113.90 . May | 2.45 . | 3.17 . | 3.11 . | 112.07 . ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Mid-month price for current month of the 1999/00 marketing year. N.A.-not available. N/Q-no quote. Source: NASS & AMS, USDA. Table 6--Wheat: Exports and imports for last 6 months, 12/14/99 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- U.S. wheat exports, (1,000 bu.) 1998/99 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Item 1/ | April May June July August September ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Wheat grain | 86,066 85,057 90,594 110,814 107,168 91,438 Wheat flour | 3,105 1,948 5,900 5,085 3,673 6,503 Products | 248 214 520 571 656 401 Total | 89,419 87,219 97,013 116,471 111,496 98,343 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- U.S. wheat imports, (1,000 bu.) 1998/99 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Item 1/ | April May June July August September -------------|--------------------------------------------------------------- Wheat grain | 5,630 8,906 7,565 9,405 8,201 4,839 Wheat flour | 707 743 742 696 687 624 Products | 1,215 1,147 1,292 1,093 1,155 1,022 Total | 7,552 10,796 9,599 11,194 10,043 6,485 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Census. 1/ Wheat flour and products converted to wheat grain equivalent. Totals may not add due to rounding. Monthly and quarterly estimates since 1995/96 are available in ERS AutoFax Document 12181, and electronically at www.econ.ag.gov/briefing/wheat/data. Note: Bold April numbers have been revised. Table 7--Wheat: U.S. exports, Census and Export Sales comparison, 12/14/99 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | 1997/98 | 1998/99 | 1999/2000 (as of 12/2/99) Importing |-----------------------------------|-------------------------- country | | Ship- |Outstanding| Total | Shipments | ments | sales | ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Data | | Export | | Export | Export Source | Census | sales | Census | sales | Sales ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | --1,000 metric tons-- Country: | Egypt | 4,837 | 4,982 | 4,516 | 4,397 | 2,080 554 2,634 EU | 1,302 | 1,298 | 1,421 | 1,407 | 785 246 1,031 Israel | 830 | 786 | 716 | 734 | 488 106 593 Japan | 3,169 | 3,373 | 3,076 | 3,201 | 1,464 463 1,927 S. Korea | 1,446 | 1,400 | 1,534 | 1,366 | 729 304 1,032 Mexico | 1,156 | 1,151 | 1,734 | 1,860 | 1,023 225 1,249 Nigeria | 730 | 817 | 1,238 | 1,300 | 662 137 799 Pakistan | 2,180 | 2,232 | 867 | 844 | 401 0 401 Philippines | 1,458 | 1,531 | 1,682 | 1,749 | 927 356 1,283 Taiwan | 1,003 | 975 | 889 | 920 | 423 138 561 Total grain | 27,295 | 27,518 | 27,202 | 25,555 | 14,010 3,352 17,362 Total(incl) | | | | | products) | 28,308 | 27,626 | 28,359 | 25,648 | 14,042 3,357 17,399 USDA forecast | | | | | of Census | | | | | 29,257 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/Export sales and shipments from USDA's weekly U.S. Export Sales report. END_OF_FILE