WHEAT OUTLOOK January 14, 2000 January 2000, WHS-0100 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WHEAT OUTLOOK is issued 11 times a year by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. Electronic release only; no published copies are available. WHEAT OUTLOOK is supplemented by an annual WHEAT YEARBOOK. The yearbook summary for 2000 will be released on March 18, 2000. Yearbooks are available in print from ERS-NASS Order Desk. For the 2000 issue, call 1-800-999-6779 (703-605-6220) and ask for stock #ERS-WHS-2000, $21. The report is available as ERS Autofax document 12105. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Highlights -- Increased Domestic Use Reduces Ending Stocks in 1999/2000 -- Large Supplies and Strong Competition Limit Price Prospects -- Producer Use of Loan Deficiency Payments Continues To Increase -- Winter Wheat Acreage Drops for Fourth Year in a Row -- Dry Weather in Plains Is a Continuing Concern for Producers -- Foreign Wheat Supply and Demand Is Little Changed This Month -- Foreign Wheat Stocks Expected To Decline in 1999/2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Lower winter wheat acreage and lower ending stock projections strengthen wheat price prospects for the 1999/2000 marketing season. However, price strength will be limited by continued large 1999/2000 supplies and strong competition in the export market. Projected 1999/2000 carryout stocks, at 972 million bushels, are down this month because of an increase of 50 million bushels in feed and residual use and a reduction of 6 million bushels in production. The season- average farm price for 1999/2000 is now forecast at $2.50 - $2.60 per bushel, up 5 cents on both ends of the range, but is expected to be lower than the $2.65 received by farmers in 1998/99. Increased Domestic Use Reduces Ending Stocks in 1999/2000 The Crop Production 1999 Summary report released by NASS on January 12 pegged 1999 wheat production at 2,302 million bushels, down 6 million bushels from the adjusted production reported in the November Crop Production report (production was reduced 10 million bushels in November because of adjustments made to 1999 durum production estimates in Montana and North Dakota). Estimated production is now 16 million bushels below the estimate reported in the Small Grains 1999 Summary report released on September 30, 1999. The December 1, 1999, wheat stocks released in NASS's January 12 Grain Stocks report were about 50 million bushels below expectations. Therefore, projected feed and residual use in 1999/2000 was increased to 300 million bushels this month, up 50 million from the December projection. Seed use was reduced 1 million bushels this month because of the reduced acreage of winter wheat, and projected ending stocks are reduced by 55 million bushels. Ending stocks for 1999/2000 are projected at 972 million bushels, down 55 million bushels from last month but 26 million above the estimate for 1998/99. Projected ending stocks are up 159 percent from the recent low of 376 million bushels on June 1, 1996. This will be the fourth consecutive year that ending stocks have increased. Foreign competition continues to keep U.S. exports in check, and wheat exports for 1999/200 are projected at 1,075 million bushels, unchanged from last month. Export projections for HRW and HRS were each reduced 5 million bushels this month, reflecting the sluggish export pace for those classes. These reductions were offset by an increase of 10 million bushels in projected exports of SRW, reflecting the relatively strong season-to-date pace of export shipments. Exports of SRW are projected up 41 percent in 1999/2000 from the previous marketing year. Large Supplies and Strong Competition Limit Price Prospects The projected season-average price is forecast between $2.50 and $2.60 per bushel, up 5 cents on both ends of the range from last month. The increase reflects higher projected domestic use, as well as fewer acres seeded to winter wheat in 2000. Concerns about dry conditions in the hard red winter growing region also provided some strength to the price outlook. Some precipitation and snowfall over much of the Southern Plains in recent weeks have reduced those concerns. In addition, weak global import demand and large supplies in major competing exporting nations will limit potential price gains for the remainder of the 1999/2000 marketing season. The preliminary farm price of all wheat in December 1999 was $2.43 per bushel, down from $2.66 reported for November and 43 cents below a year earlier (see table 5). The preliminary farm price for winter wheat for December dropped 24 cents from the November average of $2.42. Weather during the late harvest damaged the quality of the 1999 durum crop, causing the U.S. average price received by farmers for durum to decline to a seasonal low of $2.17 in October. The farm price of durum rebounded to $2.62 per bushel in November, and the preliminary mid-month price for December is up another 13 cents (table 5). The average price received by farmers for all wheat during the first 7 months of the 1999/2000 marketing season was $2.50 per bushel. The weighted average 7-month price, based on a 5-year average of monthly sales data, is $2.46. Sales during the first 6 months of the marketing season averaged about 69 percent of the crop during the last 5 years. If the percentage of the 1999 crop sold during this period is approximately the same, prices would have to average over $2.90 during the last 5 months of the marketing year to exceed the projected range of $2.50-$2.60. Producer Use of Loan Deficiency Payments Continues To Increase The 1996 Farm Act contained key policy tools to assist farmers when market prices are low. The key provisions are the "nonrecourse marketing assistance loans" (MALs) and "loan deficiency payments" (LDPs). Producers that entered into Production Flexibility Contracts with USDA are eligible to participate in these programs. As of January 13, 2000, wheat producers had outstanding loans on 115 million bushels of 1999-crop wheat. The value of the outstanding loans totaled $295 million, yielding an average loan value of $2.56 per bushel. On the same date, eligible wheat producers had collected $866 million in LDPs covering 1,833 million bushels of 1999-crop wheat or about 80 percent of the 1999 crop. The dollar amount increased another $15 million from a month ago, and the average payment rate is 47 cents per bushel on 483,9184 contracts. Only 55 percent of the 1998 crop (1,412 million bushels) received an LDP, so this year a larger percent of the 1999 crop has already received LDPs than all of last year. The average payment rate was 29 cents per bushel on the 1998 crop. Winter Wheat Acreage Drops for Fourth Year in a Row The Winter Wheat Seedings report released by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) on January 12 provides the first indication of wheat plantings for 2000/01. Planted winter wheat area for the 2000 winter wheat crop is estimated at 42.9 million acres, the lowest since 1972/73 and down 1 percent from 1999. The seeding area is within the range of analysts' expectations (42.5-44.0 million acres) but slightly below the average expectation of 43.0 million. Apparently, farmers responded to low prices last fall by planting fewer acres to wheat. While some of the area seeded to winter wheat a year earlier will be planted to other crops such as oilseeds and feed grains, some will likely be left fallow, especially in the drier sections of the Southern Great Plains. A notable exception to the decline in winter wheat acreage occurred in Montana where the area seeded rebounded 43 percent increase from the low level a year earlier to 1.5 million acres. Hard red winter (HRW) wheat seeded area is estimated at 30.29 million acres, down 559,000 or 2 percent from plantings for 1999. Most HRW States have a smaller seeded area this year. Montana is the most notable exception, as noted above. Area is down throughout the Southern Plains. Texas led all States with a reduction of 400,000 acres, followed by Oklahoma (down 300,000) and Kansas (down 200,000). Dry weather during the planting season is believed to a contributing factor in the Southern Plains States, but expectations of continued low prices also played an important role. The soft red winter (SRW) area, pegged at 9.18 million acres, is up 53,000 acres or 1 percent from planting for 1999. Seeded area is down in the Corn Belt States likely because of dry conditions last fall. Acreage is up in the Delta States, and Arkansas led the way with an increase of 180,000 acres, a 19-percent increase. Much of the increase is probably acres that will be doubled- cropped with soybeans next summer. White winter (WW) wheat seeded area totals 3.46 million acres, up only 11,000 acres from last season. In the major producing States in the Pacific Northwest, area seeded is up 16,000 acres in Idaho and 19,000 in Oregon, but down 45,000 in Washington. These three States will account for an estimated 87 percent of the WW wheat crop in 2000. In the two major eastern white wheat States, a 29,000-acre increase in New York is offset by a 31,000- acre decline in Michigan. The two States will account for an estimated 10 percent of the WW wheat crop in 2000. Dry Weather In Plains is a Continuing Concern for Producers According the last Crop Progress report of the 1999 season released by NASS on November 29, 1999, 97 percent of the winter wheat crop had been seeded across the winter wheat belt, 1 percentage point below the 5-year average. Dry weather during the fall of 1999 delayed emergence and affected the condition of the crop at several locations in the Great Plains as it entered the winter season. Overall, only 43 percent of the winter wheat crop was rated good to excellent on November 29, 1998, 29 percentage points below the ratings at the same time in 1998. In Kansas, the leading winter-wheat-producing State, only 36 percent of the crop was reported in good to excellent condition on November 29, compared with 73 percent the previous year. The late emergence and poor crop condition raised concerns about the possible greater danger of winterkill as the winter wheat crop entered the dormant stage in the growth cycle. A monthly update on crop conditions released by the Kansas Agricultural Statistics Service on January 4, 2000, indicated that only 39 percent of the Kansas crop was reported in good to excellent condition, a slight improvement from a month ago. The western half of the State received very little precipitation in December, and some areas have had little precipitation since September. The crop is suffering from moisture stress, and the stand is spotty in some areas. The crop lacks snow cover across the State, but with mild temperatures during most of December, very little freeze damage has occurred thus far. Adequate snow cover will be critical for protecting the crop from winterkill if cold weather returns. The Oklahoma Agricultural Statistics Service released the final weekly Crop Weather report for that State on December 6, 1999. The report indicated that late-week rain and snow boosted soil moisture supplies but cold weather restricted wheat growth. The report indicated that 47 percent of the crop rated good to excellent at the beginning of December. An update released on January 3 indicated that the lack of precipitation during the last 3 weeks of December has resulted in dwindling soil moisture supplies. The report indicated that 33 percent of the crop rated good to excellent, confirming a significant decline in crop conditions during December. In Texas, the Crop Weather report released by the Texas Agricultural Statistics Service on December 6 indicated that winter wheat crop conditions had deteriorated since the final national Crop Progress report was released by NASS. Only 10 percent of the crop rated good to excellent, down from the 14 percent reported in the final NASS report for late November. Twenty percent of the Texas crop was rated very poor. A recent update from Texas released on January 10 indicated that only 9 percent of the crop was rated good to excellent, and 26 percent of the crop was rated very poor. In Nebraska, crop prospects are much brighter. As of December 31, 66 percent of the winter crop was rated good to excellent, up from 45 percent at the beginning of the month. Significant snowfall occurred in western sections of the State in early January, providing much needed moisture and protection from winds and low temperatures. Foreign Wheat Supply and Demand Is Little Changed This Month While significant changes were made to U.S. forecasts this month, only minor revisions were made to foreign wheat supply and demand. Production was increased slightly (0.4 million tons) for Romania, Brazil, and the EU, but consumption and trade projections increased enough to reduce foreign stocks marginally. Russian purchases of Kazak wheat have been greater than expected. The purchases overcame transportation difficulties and boosted prospects for Russian imports and consumption by 0.5 million tons while increasing Kazakstan's exports and lowering forecast ending stocks. The increase in global wheat trade caused by strong purchases by Russia, Iran, and Indonesia was partly offset by reduced feed wheat imports by South Korea and the slow pace for China. In 1999/2000, forecast wheat imports by China of 0.7 million tons are expected to be the lowest on record. Iran is now forecast as the world's largest wheat importer, reaching 7.0 million tons. Foreign Wheat Stocks Expected to Decline in 1999/2000 Foreign wheat production in 1999/2000 is forecast up less than one- half of a percent from a year earlier, to 522 million tons, and foreign consumption is also expected to show minuscule growth, reaching 556 million. However, the gap between production and consumption is large and foreign stocks are declining. Foreign stocks declined 9 million tons in 1998/99, and an additional decline of 7 million tons is projected for 1999/2000. Tightening foreign stocks can be expected to eventually lead to increased U.S. exports or increased foreign production. Low world prices during the planting of winter wheat in the Northern Hemisphere likely discouraged some wheat producers. Lower support prices and stricter quality standards reportedly reduced wheat seedings in China. However, in the EU, wheat plantings reportedly increased because of reduced winter rapeseed. A rebound from last year's drought could be expected in the Middle East's production, but in some areas drought has extended into the current growing season. Weather during the spring in the Northern Hemisphere will largely determine if foreign wheat production increases or declines in 2000/01. ------------------------------------------------------------ Information Contacts: Mack N. Leath (Report Coordinator) (202) 694-5302 Gary Vocke (Domestic) (202) 694-5285 Edward W. Allen (International) (202) 694-5288 Jenny Gonzales (Data Coordinator) (202) 694-5296 Electronic copies available at: World Wide Web Site wwwn.econ.ag.gov ERS Autofax system (202) 694-5700 Document Number 12105 The next electronic Wheat Outlook report will be issued on February 15, 2000. The 1999 Wheat Yearbook data tables are available at: 1) ERS AutoFax; Call (202) 694-5700 and select document 12100 for a complete directory of the historical tables. 2) ERS Web Site: www.econ.ag.gov/, select "Data Products," then "Field Crops," then "Wheat," then "Wheat Yearbook." 3) ERS Web Site: www.econ.ag.gov/, select "Wheat" Briefing Room, then "Data," then "Wheat Yearbook," and select desired table. The "README.TXT" file contains a list of appendix and text tables by title. Other wheat articles and publications may be obtained from the ERS "Wheat Briefing Room" at http://www.econ.ag.gov/briefing/wheat. Look in "Articles and Publications" section. ------------------------------------------------------------- Table 1--Wheat: U.S. market year supply and disappearance, 1/14/00 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Item 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99E 1999/00P ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Area: (mil. ac.) National total base 88.9 88.5 87.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 Eff. base/Ctr. acres 0,50/92,85 5.2 6.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 CRP base retired 10.8 10.8 10.6 10.1 9.7 0.0 Planted 70.3 69.0 75.1 70.4 65.8 62.8 Harvested 61.8 61.0 62.8 62.8 59.0 53.9 Yield: (bu/acre) 37.6 35.8 36.3 39.5 43.2 42.7 Supply: (mil. bu.) Beginning stocks 568.5 506.6 376.0 443.6 722.5 945.9 Production 2,321.0 2,182.7 2,277.4 2,481.5 2,547.3 2,302.4 Imports 1/ 91.9 67.9 92.3 94.9 103.0 100.0 Total supply 2,981.4 2,757.2 2,745.7 3,020.0 3,372.8 3,348.4 Use: Food 853.0 882.9 890.7 914.1 907.6 910.0 Seed 89.0 103.5 102.3 92.5 80.7 91.0 Feed and residual 344.5 153.7 307.6 250.5 396.6 300.0 Total domestic 1,286.6 1,140.1 1,300.6 1,257.1 1,384.8 1,301.0 Exports 1/ 1,188.3 1,241.1 1,001.5 1,040.4 1,042.0 1,075.0 Total use 2,474.8 2,381.2 2,302.1 2,297.5 2,426.9 2,376.0 Ending stocks: 506.6 376.0 443.6 722.5 945.9 972.4 Farmer-owned reserve 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 CCC inventory 2/ 142.0 118.0 93.0 94.0 128.0 100.0 Free stocks 364.6 258.0 350.6 628.5 817.9 872.4 Stocks-to-use ratio 20.5 15.8 19.3 31.4 39.0 40.9 Prices: ($/bu.) Target price 4.00 4.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Loan rate 2.58 2.58 2.58 2.58 2.58 2.58 Contract rate 3/ 0.61 0.00 0.87 0.63 0.66 0.64 Ave. farm price 3.45 4.55 4.30 3.38 2.65 2.50-2.60 Contract payments (mil. dollars) 3/ 1,146 100 1,941 1,414 1,943 2,387 Market value of production (mil. dollars) 8,007 9,787 9,782 8,387 6,750 5,871 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Source: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, WAOB, USDA. Totals may not add due to rounding. E=Estimated, P=Projected, N.A.=not applicable. 1/ Imports and exports include flour and other products expressed in wheat equivalent. 2/ Includes Food Security Reserve. 3/ Deficiency payments prior to 1996/97. Table 2--Wheat: U.S. market year supply and disappearance, 1/14/00 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1998/99E HRW HRS SRW White Durum All wheat ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Area: Million acres Planted 32.36 14.85 10.18 4.67 3.80 65.82 Harvested 27.34 14.41 9.06 4.46 3.73 59.00 Yield: (bu/acre) 43.14 33.75 48.86 67.42 37.03 43.17 Supply: Million bushels Beg. stocks 306.7 220.0 80.0 90.0 25.8 722.5 Production 1,179.5 486.4 442.7 300.7 138.1 2,547.3 Imports 2/ 0.9 58.2 0.0 10.5 33.5 103.0 Total 1487.0 764.5 522.7 401.2 197.4 3372.8 Utilization: Food 385.1 230.0 150.0 75.0 67.5 907.6 Seed 34.8 18.2 17.6 6.1 4.0 80.7 Feed and residual 180.3 38.3 116.1 35.1 26.8 396.6 Total domestic 600.2 286.5 283.7 116.2 98.3 1,384.8 Exports 2/ 451.7 245.0 103.0 198.0 44.3 1,042.0 Total 1,051.9 531.5 386.7 314.2 142.6 2,426.9 Ending stocks: 435.1 233.0 136.0 87.0 54.8 945.9 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1999/00P HRW HRS SRW White Durum All wheat ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Area: Million acres Planted 30.78 14.33 9.13 4.54 4.04 62.81 Harvested 24.38 13.77 8.02 4.16 3.57 53.91 Yield: (bu/acre) 43.26 32.52 56.55 59.27 27.83 42.71 Supply: Million bushels Beg. stocks 435.1 233.0 136.0 87.0 54.8 945.9 Production 1,055.0 447.9 453.4 246.8 99.3 2,302.4 Imports 2/ 1.0 57.0 0.0 7.0 35.0 100.0 Total 1491.1 737.9 589.4 340.8 189.1 3348.4 Utilization: Total domestic 534.0 304.5 282.7 96.3 83.5 1,301.0 Exports 2/ 510.0 230.0 145.0 150.0 40.0 1,075.0 Total 1,044.0 534.5 427.7 246.3 123.5 2,376.0 Ending stocks: 447.1 203.4 161.7 94.5 65.6 972.4 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Source: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, WAOB, USDA. Totals may not add due to rounding. E=Estimated, P=Projected. 1/ ERS estimates of area, yield, and domestic use. 2/ Imports and exports include flour and other products expressed in wheat equivalent. Table 3--Wheat: Quarterly supply and disappearance (1,000 bu.), 1/14/00 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Market Produc- Imports Supply Food Seed Feed Exports Ending Year tion 1/ 1/ stocks ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Million bushels 1996/97: Jun-Aug 2,277 15 2,668 224 9 378 334 1,724 Sep-Nov --- 21 1,745 234 60 (76) 308 1,219 Dec-Feb --- 27 1,246 213 2 30 179 822 Mar-May --- 30 852 221 32 (24) 180 444 Mkt. year 2,277 92 2,746 891 102 308 1,002 444 1997/98 E: Jun-Aug 2,481 23 2,948 228 3 352 288 2,076 Sep-Nov --- 23 2,099 239 59 (113) 296 1,619 Dec-Feb --- 24 1,643 219 2 0 255 1,167 Mar-May --- 26 1,192 228 29 11 201 722 Mkt. year 2,481 95 3,020 914 92 251 1,040 722 1998/99 P: Jun-Aug 2,547 24 3,294 226 1 425 257 2,385 Sep-Nov --- 24 2,409 241 55 (74) 292 1,896 Dec-Feb --- 28 1,923 213 1 12 246 1,450 Mar-May --- 27 1,477 228 23 34 247 946 Mkt. year 2,547 103 3,373 908 81 397 1,042 946 1999/00 P: Jun-Aug 2,302 31 3,279 224 6 279 325 2,445 Sep-Nov --- 20 2,465 240 54 2 290 1,879 Mkt. year 2,302 100 3,348 910 91 300 1,075 972 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Totals might not add due to rounding. E=Estimated, P=Projected. 1/ Imports and exports include flour and selected products expressed in wheat equivalent. Table 4--Monthly food use estimates for last 12 months, (1,000 bu.), 01/12/00 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Item | November December January February March April ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Mill grind 1/ + | 79,969 75,063 69,910 69,355 73,582 75,533 Food imports 2/ + | 2,020 2,090 1,903 1,766 1,860 1,836 Non-flour | food use 3/ + | 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 Food exports 2/ - | 2,524 6,721 2,755 3,535 4,323 3,304 Food use* = | 81,465 72,431 71,058 69,586 73,119 76,065 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Item | May June July August September October ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Mill grind 1/ + | 77,229 73,889 73,438 80,263 77,179 ----- Food imports 2/ + | 1,803 1,927 1,703 1,772 1,576 1,830 Non-flour | food use 3/ + | 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 Food exports 2/ - | 2,107 6,113 5,289 3,932 6,904 4,950 Food use* = | 78,925 71,703 71,852 80,103 73,851 ----- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Census. Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ 1999 mill grind estimates are revised. 2/ Wheat flour and products converted to wheat grain equivalent. 3/ ERS estimate of cereal use. Table 5--Wheat: Farm prices and prices at selected markets ($/bu.), 01/12/00 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | ---------------------- Farm prices ------------------------- Month | All wheat | Winter | Durum | Other spring | 98/99 99/00 | 98/99 99/00 | 98/99 99/00 | 98/99 99/00 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ June | 2.77 2.50 | 2.68 2.32 | 3.98 2.93 | 3.22 3.01 July | 2.56 2.23 | 2.47 2.13 | 3.39 2.89 | 3.08 2.93 August | 2.38 2.52 | 2.25 2.34 | 3.23 2.74 | 2.69 2.85 September | 2.39 2.57 | 2 29 2.46 | 3.03 2.30 | 2.62 2.86 October | 2.77 2.58 | 2.66 2.47 | 3.04 2.17 | 3.04 2.80 November | 2.95 2.66 | 2.76 2.42 | 3.08 2.62 | 3.23 2.95 December 1/| 2.86 2.43 | 2.68 2.18 | 3.05 2.75 | 3.19 2.82 January | 2.84 . | 2.70 . | 3.20 . | 3.12 . February | 2.73 . | 2.55 . | 2.84 . | 3.09 . March | 2.65 . | 2.53 . | 2.82 . | 3.00 . April | 2.62 . | 2.48 . | 2.80 . | 2.95 . May | 2.49 . | 2.34 . | 2.84 . | 2.92 . ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | KC HRW #1 | KC HRW #1 | Minneapolis | Minneapolis Month | ordinary | 13% protein | DNS 14% prot. | #1 HAD milling | 98/99 99/00 | 98/99 99/00 | 98/99 99/00 | 98/99 99/00 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ June | 3.16 2.93 | 3.57 3.22 | 4.01 3.73 | 5.00 N/Q July | 3.02 2.68 | 3.57 3.39 | 3.89 3.68 | 4.59 3.92 August | 2.74 2.85 | 3.12 3.42 | 3.58 3.58 | 4.20 3.73 September | 2.81 2.92 | 3.17 3.52 | 3.53 3.55 | 3.78 4.14 October | 3.30 2.80 | 3.67 3.40 | 4.03 3.70 | 4.04 4.46 November | 3.42 2.89 | 3.89 3.54 | 4.15 3.78 | 4.15 4.80 December | 3.31 . | 3.74 . | 3.97 . | 4.05 . January | 3.27 . | 3.61 . | 3.92 . | 3.91 . February | 3.05 . | 3.35 . | 3.78 . | 3.67 . March | 3.02 . | 3.34 . | 3.79 . | 3.65 . April | 2.94 . | 3.34 . | 3.65 . | 3.61 . May | 2.89 . | 3.28 . | 3.61 . | N/Q . ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | St. Louis | Portland | Portland | FOB Gulf Month | #2 SRW | #1 soft white | #1 HRW Ord. | $/ton (HRW) | 98/99 99/00 | 98/99 99/00 | 98/99 99/00 | 98/99 99/00 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- June | 2.66 2.31 | 2.93 3.17 | 3.37 3.10 | 120.52 110.60 July | 2.43 N.A. | 2.72 3.06 | 3.04 2.83 | 117.95 101.04 August | 2.26 2.22 | 2.66 3.14 | 2.93 3.00 | 108.76 109.86 September | 2.12 2.48 | 2.69 3.25 | 3.06 3.12 | 108.03 113.17 October | 2.23 2.31 | 3.15 3.24 | 3.56 2.97 | 126.03 107.29 November | 2.41 2.50 | 3.15 3.09 | 3.66 2.98 | 131.18 108.76 December | 2.54 . | 3.12 . | 3.62 . | 126.40 . January | 2.51 . | 3.15 . | 3.58 . | 125.30 . February | 2.33 . | 3.10 . | 3.36 . | 116.48 . March | 2.44 . | 3.22 . | 3.43 . | 117.95 . April | 2.44 . | 3.23 . | 3.31 . | 113.90 . May | 2.45 . | 3.17 . | 3.11 . | 112.07 . ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Mid-month price for current month of the 1999/00 marketing year. N.A.-not available. N/Q-no quote. Source: NASS & AMS, USDA. Table 6--Wheat: U.S. exports and imports for last 6 months, 01/12/00 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Exports, (1,000 bu.) 1999 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Item 1/ | May June July August September October ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Wheat grain | 85,057 90,594 110,814 107,168 91,438 96,154 Wheat flour | 1,948 5,900 5,085 3,673 6,503 4,576 Products | 214 520 571 656 401 374 Total | 87,219 97,013 116,471 111,496 98,343 101,105 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Imports, (1,000 bu.) 1999 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Item 1/ | May June July August September October -------------|--------------------------------------------------------------- Wheat grain | 8,906 7,565 9,405 8,201 4,839 4,570 Wheat flour | 630 627 593 593 537 556 Products | 1,173 1,303 1,112 1,181 1,041 1,275 Total | 10,709 9,496 11,110 9,974 6,418 6,402 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Census. 1/ Wheat flour and products converted to wheat grain equivalent. Totals may not add due to rounding. Monthly and quarterly estimates since 1995/96 are available in ERS Autofax Document 12181, and electronically at www.econ.ag.gov/briefing/wheat/data. Note: Bold April numbers have been revised. Table 7--Wheat: U.S. exports, Census and Export Sales comparison, 01/12/00 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | 1997/98 | 1998/99 | 1999/2000 (as of 1/6/00) Importing |-----------------------------------|-------------------------- country | | Ship- |Outstanding| Total | Shipments | ments | sales | ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Data | | Export | | Export | Export Source | Census | sales | Census | sales | Sales ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | --1,000 metric tons-- Country: | Egypt | 4,837 | 4,982 | 4,516 | 4,397 | 2,867 475 3,342 EU | 1,302 | 1,298 | 1,421 | 1,407 | 946 139 1,085 Israel | 830 | 786 | 716 | 734 | 529 91 620 Japan | 3,169 | 3,373 | 3,076 | 3,201 | 1,722 499 2,221 S. Korea | 1,446 | 1,400 | 1,534 | 1,366 | 888 258 1,146 Mexico | 1,156 | 1,151 | 1,734 | 1,860 | 1,246 289 1,535 Nigeria | 730 | 817 | 1,238 | 1,300 | 756 54 810 Pakistan | 2,180 | 2,232 | 867 | 844 | 401 0 401 Philippines | 1,458 | 1,531 | 1,682 | 1,749 | 1,185 211 1,396 Taiwan | 1,003 | 975 | 889 | 920 | 547 164 710 Total grain | 27,295 | 27,518 | 27,202 | 25,555 | 16,576 2,928 19,504 Total(incl) | | | | | products) | 28,308 | 27,626 | 28,359 | 25,648 | 16,610 2,934 19,544 USDA forecast | | | | | of Census | | | | | 29,257 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/Export sales and shipments from USDA's weekly U.S. Export Sales report. END_OF_FILE