WHEAT OUTLOOK February 15, 2000 February 2000, WHS-0200 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WHEAT OUTLOOK is issued 11 times a year by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. Electronic release only; no published copies are available. WHEAT OUTLOOK is supplemented by an annual WHEAT YEARBOOK. The yearbook summary for 2000 will be released on March 27, 2000. Yearbooks are available in print from ERS-NASS Order Desk. For the 2000 issue, call 1-800-999-6779 (703-605-6220) and ask for stock #ERS-WHS-2000, $21. The report is available as ERS Autofax document 12105. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Highlights -- Ending Stocks Up from Last Month, Exports Down -- Announced Donations May Boost Exports Later This Year -- Imports and Food Use for 1999/2000 Reduced This Month -- U.S. 1999/2000 Wheat Export Forecast Reduced 0.5 Million Tons to 28.5 Million -- Global Wheat Consumption Forecast Up, Ending Stocks Decline -- Crop Conditions in Southern Plains Are a Continuing Concern -- Wheat and Product Import Data Ending Stocks Up from Last Month, Exports Down U.S. ending stocks for 1999/2000 are up 25 million bushels from last month because of lower projected exports. Ending stocks for 1999/2000 are projected at 997 million bushels, 5 percent above 1998/99 and the largest since 1987/88. Projected soft red winter (SRW) ending stocks are down marginally from last month at 157 million bushels, the largest in recent history. Projected exports for 1999/2000 were lowered 25 million bushels to 1,050 million because of increased competition. Shipments by the four major competing exporters -- Argentina, Australia, Canada, and the European Union -- are projected up 16 percent in the 1999/2000 trade year (July-June). Export projections for hard red winter (HRW) and hard red spring (HRS) wheat were reduced this month, reflecting the sluggish export pace for those classes. In contrast, the projection for soft red winter (SRW) was increased. HRW exports are projected at 490 million bushels, up 8 percent from last year but down 20 million from last month. HRS exports are projected at 220 million bushels, down 10 million from last month. In contrast, SRW exports are now projected at 150 million, up 5 million from last month. The rebound in SRW exports this season reflects significant increases in shipments to Egypt, Mexico, and the Philippines. Exports of white wheat are projected at 150 million bushels, equal to the recent historical low set in the 1985/86 marketing year. Shipments of white wheat to Egypt and Pakistan are substantially lower than in 1998/99. A dramatic increase in exports by Australia have significantly affected U.S. exports of that class of wheat. Announced Donations May Boost Exports Later This Year The current export projection does not include the planned fiscal-year 2000 (October 1999 - September 2000) donations of approximately 3 million tons of food aid announced on February 10, 2000. Commodities to be donated include wheat and wheat flour, soybeans and soy products, rice, and milk powder. About 75 percent of the donations are expected to be wheat and flour. In the coming weeks, the Administration will announce the likely recipient countries and products to be donated. At this time, it uncertain if the wheat/flour component will be shipped in the 1999/2000 marketing year or the 2000/01 marketing year. Imports and Food Use for 1999/2000 Reduced This Month Projected imports are down 5 million bushels from last month, and food use is also reduced 5 million bushels. In the second quarter (September - November) of the 1999/2000 marketing year, imports totaled 19 million bushels, 11 million below the first quarter. Food use for the 1999/2000 marketing year is now projected at 905 million bushels, down 5 million from last month. If realized, this will be the second year in a row that food use has declined. During the first 6 months of the marketing year wheat ground by millers was up an estimated 10.1 million bushels over the same period a year earlier. The increase in mill grind was more than offset by a 13.6-million-bushel (wheat equivalent) increase in exports of flour and other food products. Food product imports were down 1 million bushels (wheat equivalent) during this period. Consequently, the net decline in food use during the first half of 1999/2000 was 4.5 million bushels. Durum food use is currently forecast at 65 million bushels for 1999/2000. During the first half of the year, durum food use was down 1.4 million bushels from a year earlier. If the trend continues, this will be the fourth year in a row that durum food use has declined. Trade data for December 1999 will be released later in the week. Once those data are available, domestic flour consumption for calendar year 1999 can be calculated. If December imports and exports of wheat food products are equal to the monthly average for January through December, domestic flour disappearance for 1999 would be virtually unchanged from 1998. With population up about 2.5 million in 1999, per capita use in 1999 is projected at 144.4 pounds. If realized, per capita use would be 1.5 pounds below 1998 and 4.1 pounds below the modern high of 149.5 pounds in 1997. U.S. 1999/2000 Wheat Export Forecast Reduced 0.5 Million Tons to 28.5 Million The U.S. export forecast was reduced because of increasing competition and the sluggish pace of sales and shipments. However, the 1999/2000 forecast is slightly higher than the previous year's exports. According to U.S. Export Sales , as of February 3, shipments were about the same as a year ago, but outstanding sales were 12 percent behind. Also complicating forecasts is the difference between export shipments reported by Census and grain inspections data. The official USDA export forecast is based on Census export data. Although the two should be fairly close, through the first 6 months of the June/May marketing year, grain inspection figures are running ahead of Census wheat grain data by almost 0.5 million tons. Contributing to the reduction in U.S. exports is increasing competition, especially from the recently harvested crops in Argentina and Australia. Growing conditions for wheat in Australia were favorable, although excessive moisture in some areas reduced quality. The production forecast was boosted 0.5 million tons to 23.5 million, nearly matching the 1996 record. With increased supplies, Australia's exports were also increased by 0.5 million tons. The Australian Wheat Board competes with U.S. exports in many markets, but especially in those that prefer white wheat. EU 1999/2000 exports were reduced 0.5 million tons to 15.5 million. A review of historical data resulted in lower estimated EU wheat exports for 1998/99. Data from the EU are published with a large lag, and 1998/99 data are still not complete. However, using information available, the pace of exports so far in 1999/2000 is up from the previous year but slower than previously expected. EU flour exports were down significantly in 1998/99 and remain sluggish this year. Kazakstan continues to move large volumes of wheat, especially to Russia and Ukraine. Kazak wheat exports were boosted 0.5 million tons to 4.5 million, while Russia's imports increased 1.0 million, also to 4.5 million, and Ukraine's imports were boosted 0.2 million to 0.5 million. However, imports by other countries in the former Soviet Union were reduced, and imports by the region as a whole were increased this month by a little less than 0.5 million tons. The forecast for world wheat imports in 1999/2000 was virtually unchanged this month as numerous small changes were offsetting. Among those changes, the most notable were reductions of 0.3 million tons for Morocco and 0.2 million for Egypt, because of the slow pace of purchases, a reduction of 0.2 million for South Korea because of reduced purchases of feed wheat, and an increase of 0.2 for the United Arab Emirates. Historical revisions made this month to trade data, especially from Europe, the former Soviet Union, and India, boosted world wheat trade about 2 million tons in 1995/96 and 1996/97 and over 1 million in 1997/98, but reduced estimated trade in 1998/99. World wheat trade in 1999/2000 is still forecast higher than in the previous 6 years, but the increase is small. Global Wheat Consumption Forecast Up, Ending Stocks Decline Forecast wheat consumption in 1999/2000 was increased this month, particularly for wheat feed use in the former Soviet Union and Eastern Europe. Compared with the previous year, global consumption is forecast up despite a decline in feed use. While low feed grain prices have reduced wheat feeding in some countries, other consumption (mostly food use) is expected to continue to grow, mostly driven by population growth. World wheat ending stocks for 1999/2000 are forecast at 127.2 million tons, down 2.2 million from a month ago, and 8.3 million tons less than a year earlier. Even the stocks of major exporters are declining. Although U.S. stocks are forecast up 1.4 million tons, EU stocks are now forecast down by 3.5 million, more than offsetting. This highlights the role of the United States in establishing the general level of wheat prices in world trade. Large U.S. stocks are a major factor keeping wheat prices at historical lows. Crop Conditions in Southern Plains Are a Continuing Concern Dry weather during the fall of 1999 delayed emergence of the winter wheat crop and affected the condition of the crop at several locations in the Great Plains. Overall, only 43 percent of the winter wheat crop was rated good to excellent on November 29, 1999, 29 percentage points below the ratings at the same time in 1998. In Kansas, the leading winter wheat State, only 36 percent of the crop was reported in good to excellent condition on November 29, compared with 73 percent the previous year. The late emergence and poor crop condition raised concerns about heightened danger from winterkill as the winter wheat crop entered the dormant stage in the growth cycle. A monthly update on crop conditions released by the Kansas Agricultural Statistics Service on February 1, 2000, indicated that only 33 percent of the Kansas crop was reported in good to excellent condition, down 6 percent from a month earlier. The dry conditions last fall led to spotty stands, and the mild temperatures during most of the winter had further depleted soil moisture. A winter storm January 27-28 blanketed the State with 2-4 inches of snow while a few locations received amounts closer to a foot. The Oklahoma Agricultural Statistics Service released the year's final weekly Crop Weather report for that State on December 6, 1999. The report indicated that late-week rain and snow boosted soil moisture supplies but cold weather restricted wheat growth. The report indicated that 47 percent of the crop rated good to excellent at the beginning of December. An update released on February 7 indicated that wheat conditions ranged from poor to fair in western and southern Oklahoma to mostly good in the central district. A winter storm during the last week of January (amounts up to 18 inches) brought relief to drought-stressed wheat in northern and eastern counties. In Texas, the Crop Weather report released by the Texas Agricultural Statistics Service on February 6 indicated that winter wheat crop conditions had deteriorated since NASS released its final national Crop Progress report for 1999 in late November. Only 9 percent of the crop rated good to excellent, down from the 14 percent reported in November NASS report. The Texas report indicated that seedling death escalated in many areas and plow-up options were given greater consideration by many producers. Aphid, green bug, and spider mite populations continued to expand, further compounding the problem. Statewide, wheat conditions were rated at 37 percent of normal, compared with 59 percent last year. In Nebraska, as of February 1, 38 percent of the winter crop was rated in good to excellent condition. Wheat and Product Import Data A number of inquires regarding imports of wheat and wheat products have been received in recent weeks. Special tables showing a breakdown of imports into grain and grain products since 1989/90 have been prepared and are included this month. Table 8 shows imports of all wheat, flour mill products, and other products. Total food use for each year or quarter are shown for comparison purposes. During 1998/99 imports of wheat and wheat products surpassed 100 million bushels for the second time in history. The 103 million bushels imported was the equivalent of about 11 percent of food use in the United States. Imports continued the strong pace during the first quarter of 1999/2000 but subsided in the second quarter, and this was a major factor leading to a lower import projection for the 1999/2000 marketing year this month. Similar data for durum wheat and durum products are shown in table 9. Imports of durum and durum products reached a record 33.5 million bushels in 1998/99, the equivalent of 50 percent of the estimated U.S. food use. The grain component of the total was below the record level of 1993/94, but durum products hit a record 13 million bushels equivalent last year. Imports continued at a record pace in the first quarter of 1999/2000. The first-quarter total represents the equivalent of 70 percent of U.S. durum food use during the quarter. The pace of imports dropped significantly in the second quarter. Information Contacts: Mack N. Leath (Report Coordinator) (202) 694-5302 Gary Vocke (Domestic) (202) 694-5285 Edward W. Allen (International) (202) 694-5288 Jenny Gonzales (Data Coordinator) (202) 694-5296 Electronic copies available at: World Wide Web Site - www.econ.ag.gov ERS Autofax system - (202) 694-5700 Document Number 12105 The next electronic Wheat Outlook report will be issued on April 13, 2000. The Summary of the 2000 Wheat Yearbook will be released on March 27, 2000. The 1999 Wheat Yearbook data tables are available at: 1) ERS AutoFax; Call (202) 694-5700 and select document 12100 for a complete directory of the historical tables. 2) ERS Web Site: www.econ.ag.gov/, select "Data Products," then "Field Crops," then "Wheat," then "Wheat Yearbook." 3) ERS Web Site: www.econ.ag.gov/, select "Wheat" Briefing Room, then "Data," then "Wheat Yearbook," and select desired table. The "README.TXT" file contains a list of appendix and text tables by title. Other wheat articles and publications may be obtained from the ERS "Wheat Briefing Room" at http://www.econ.ag.gov/briefing/wheat. Look in "Articles and Publications" section. ---------------------------------------------------------- Table 1--Wheat: U.S. market year supply and disappearance, 2/15/00 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Item 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99E 1999/00P ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Area: (mil. ac.) National total base 88.9 88.5 87.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 Eff. base/Ctr. acres 0,50/92,85 5.2 6.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 CRP base retired 10.8 10.8 10.6 10.1 9.7 0.0 Planted 70.3 69.0 75.1 70.4 65.8 62.8 Harvested 61.8 61.0 62.8 62.8 59.0 53.9 Yield: (bu/acre) 37.6 35.8 36.3 39.5 43.2 42.7 Supply: (mil. bu.) Beginning stocks 568.5 506.6 376.0 443.6 722.5 945.9 Production 2,321.0 2,182.7 2,277.4 2,481.5 2,547.3 2,302.4 Imports 1/ 91.9 67.9 92.3 94.9 103.0 95.0 Total supply 2,981.4 2,757.2 2,745.7 3,020.0 3,372.8 3,343.4 Use: Food 853.0 882.9 890.7 914.1 907.3 905.0 Seed 89.0 103.5 102.3 92.5 80.7 91.0 Feed and residual 344.5 153.7 307.6 250.5 396.6 300.0 Total domestic 1,286.6 1,140.1 1,300.6 1,257.1 1,384.5 1,296.0 Exports 1/ 1,188.3 1,241.1 1,001.5 1,040.4 1,042.4 1,050.0 Total use 2,474.8 2,381.2 2,302.1 2,297.5 2,426.9 2,346.0 Ending stocks: 506.6 376.0 443.6 722.5 945.9 997.4 Farmer-owned reserve 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 CCC inventory 2/ 142.0 118.0 93.0 94.0 128.0 100.0 Free stocks 364.6 258.0 350.6 628.5 817.9 897.4 Stocks-to-use ratio 20.5 15.8 19.3 31.4 39.0 42.5 Prices: ($/bu.) Target price 4.00 4.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Loan rate 2.58 2.58 2.58 2.58 2.58 2.58 Contract rate 3/ 0.61 0.00 0.87 0.63 0.66 0.64 Ave. farm price 3.45 4.55 4.30 3.38 2.65 2.50-2.60 Contract payments (mil. dollars) 3/ 1,146 100 1,941 1,413 1,972 2,397 Market value of production (mil. dollars) 8,007 9,787 9,782 8,387 6,750 5,871 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Source: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, WAOB, USDA. Totals may not add due to rounding. E=Estimated, P=Projected, N.A.=not applicable. 1/ Imports and exports include flour and other products expressed in wheat equivalent. 2/ Includes Food Security Reserve. 3/ Deficiency payments prior to 1996/97. Table 2--Wheat: U.S. market year supply and disappearance, 2/15/00 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1998/99 E HRW HRS SRW White Durum All wheat ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Area: Million acres Planted 32.22 14.80 10.18 4.81 3.81 65.82 Harvested 27.27 14.37 9.07 4.56 3.73 59.00 Bushels per acre Yield: 43.26 33.85 48.77 65.91 37.05 43.17 Supply: Million bushels Beg. stocks 306.7 220.0 80.0 90.0 25.8 722.5 Production 1,179.5 486.4 442.7 300.7 138.1 2,547.3 Imports 2/ 0.9 58.2 0.0 10.5 33.5 103.0 Total 1487.0 764.5 522.7 401.2 197.4 3372.8 Utilization: Food 384.8 230.0 150.0 75.0 67.5 907.3 Seed 34.8 18.2 17.6 6.1 4.0 80.7 Feed and residual 179.4 36.1 114.5 35.0 31.6 396.6 Total domestic 598.9 284.3 282.1 116.1 103.1 1,384.5 Exports 2/ 453.0 247.2 104.6 198.1 39.5 1,042.4 Total 1,051.9 531.5 386.7 314.2 142.6 2,426.9 Ending stocks: 435.1 233.0 136.0 87.0 54.8 945.9 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1999/00 P HRW HRS SRW White Durum All wheat ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Area: Million acres Planted 30.85 14.34 9.13 4.45 4.04 62.81 Harvested 24.45 13.79 8.02 4.09 3.57 53.91 Bushels per acre Yield: 43.15 32.49 56.55 60.39 27.83 42.71 Supply: Million bushels Beg. stocks 435.1 233.0 136.0 87.0 54.8 945.9 Production 1,055.0 447.9 453.4 246.8 99.3 2,302.4 Imports 2/ 1.0 55.0 0.0 7.0 32.0 95.0 Total 1491.1 735.9 589.4 340.8 186.1 3343.4 Utilization: Total domestic 539.0 294.5 282.7 96.3 83.5 1,296.0 Exports 2/ 490.0 220.0 150.0 150.0 40.0 1,050.0 Total 1,029.0 514.5 432.7 246.3 123.5 2,346.0 Ending stocks: 462.1 221.4 156.7 94.5 62.6 997.4 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Source: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, WAOB, USDA. Totals may not add due to rounding. E=Estimated, P=Projected. 1/ ERS estimates of area, yield, and domestic use. 2/ Imports and exports include flour and other products expressed in wheat equivalent. Table 3--Wheat: Quarterly supply and disappearance (1,000 bu.), 2/15/00 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Market Produc- Imports Supply Food Seed Feed Exports Ending Year tion 1/ 1/ stocks ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Million bushels 1997/98: Jun-Aug 2,481 23 2,948 228 3 352 288 2,076 Sep-Nov --- 23 2,099 239 59 (113) 296 1,619 Dec-Feb --- 24 1,643 219 2 0 255 1,167 Mar-May --- 26 1,192 228 29 11 201 722 Mkt. year 2,481 95 3,020 914 92 251 1,040 722 1998/99 E: Jun-Aug 2,547 24 3,294 226 1 425 257 2,385 Sep-Nov --- 24 2,409 241 55 (74) 292 1,896 Dec-Feb --- 28 1,923 213 1 12 247 1,450 Mar-May --- 27 1,477 228 23 34 247 946 Mkt. year 2,547 103 3,373 907 81 397 1,042 946 1999/00 P: Jun-Aug 2,302 31 3,279 224 6 279 325 2,445 Sep-Nov --- 19 2,465 238 54 2 291 1,879 Dec-Feb --- Mar-May --- Mkt. year 2,302 95 3,343 905 91 300 1,050 997 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Totals might not add due to rounding. E=Estimated, P=Projected. 1/ Imports and exports include flour and selected products expressed in wheat equivalent. Table 4--Monthly food use estimates for last 12 months, (1,000 bu.), 2/15/00 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Item | January February March April May June ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Mill grind + | 69,910 69,355 73,582 75,536 77,233 73,892 Food imports 1/ + | 1,903 1,766 1,860 1,836 1,803 1,927 Non-flour | food use 2/ + | 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 Food exports 1/ - | 2,755 3,535 4,323 3,304 2,107 6,113 Food use* = | 71,058 69,586 73,119 76,068 78,929 71,707 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Item | July August September October November December ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Mill grind + | 73,438 80,263 77,179 83,883 80,289 75,363 Food imports 1/ + | 1,703 1,772 1,576 1,830 1,939 N/A Non-flour | food use 2/ + | 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 Food exports 1/ - | 5,289 3,932 6,904 4,950 2,607 N/A Food use* = | 71,852 80,103 73,851 82,763 81,621 N/A ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Census. Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Wheat flour and products converted to wheat grain equivalent. 2/ ERS estimate of cereal use. N/A=not available Table 5--Wheat: Farm prices and prices at selected markets ($/bu.), 2/15/00 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | ---------------------- Farm prices ------------------------- Month | All wheat | Winter | Durum | Other spring | 98/99 99/00 | 98/99 99/00 | 98/99 99/00 | 98/99 99/00 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ June | 2.77 2.50 | 2.68 2.32 | 3.98 2.93 | 3.22 3.01 July | 2.56 2.23 | 2.47 2.13 | 3.39 2.89 | 3.08 2.93 August | 2.38 2.52 | 2.25 2.34 | 3.23 2.74 | 2.69 2.85 September | 2.39 2.57 | 2 29 2.46 | 3.03 2.30 | 2.62 2.86 October | 2.77 2.58 | 2.66 2.47 | 3.04 2.17 | 3.04 2.80 November | 2.95 2.66 | 2.76 2.42 | 3.08 2.62 | 3.23 2.95 December | 2.86 2.52 | 2.68 2.27 | 3.05 2.96 | 3.19 2.87 January 1/ | 2.84 2.52 | 2.70 2.35 | 3.20 3.00 | 3.12 2.82 February | 2.73 . | 2.55 . | 2.84 . | 3.09 . March | 2.65 . | 2.53 . | 2.82 . | 3.00 . April | 2.62 . | 2.48 . | 2.80 . | 2.95 . May | 2.49 . | 2.34 . | 2.84 . | 2.92 . ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | KC HRW #1 | KC HRW #1 | Minneapolis | Minneapolis Month | ordinary | 13% protein | DNS 14% prot. | #1 HAD milling | 98/99 99/00 | 98/99 99/00 | 98/99 99/00 | 98/99 99/00 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ June | 3.16 2.93 | 3.57 3.22 | 4.01 3.73 | 5.00 N/Q July | 3.02 2.68 | 3.57 3.39 | 3.89 3.68 | 4.59 3.92 August | 2.74 2.85 | 3.12 3.42 | 3.58 3.58 | 4.20 3.73 September | 2.81 2.92 | 3.17 3.52 | 3.53 3.55 | 3.78 4.14 October | 3.30 2.80 | 3.67 3.40 | 4.03 3.70 | 4.04 4.46 November | 3.42 2.89 | 3.89 3.54 | 4.15 3.78 | 4.15 4.80 December | 3.31 2.81 | 3.74 3.44 | 3.97 3.64 | 4.05 N/Q January | 3.27 2.90 | 3.61 3.46 | 3.92 3.37 | 3.91 N/Q February | 3.05 . | 3.35 . | 3.78 . | 3.67 . March | 3.02 . | 3.34 . | 3.79 . | 3.65 . April | 2.94 . | 3.34 . | 3.65 . | 3.61 . May | 2.89 . | 3.28 . | 3.61 . | N/Q . ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | St. Louis | Portland | Portland | FOB Gulf Month | #2 SRW | #1 soft white | #1 HRW Ord. | $/ton (HRW) | 98/99 99/00 | 98/99 99/00 | 98/99 99/00 | 98/99 99/00 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- June | 2.66 2.31 | 2.93 3.17 | 3.37 3.10 | 120.52 110.60 July | 2.43 N.A. | 2.72 3.06 | 3.04 2.83 | 117.95 101.04 August | 2.26 2.22 | 2.66 3.14 | 2.93 3.00 | 108.76 109.86 September | 2.12 2.48 | 2.69 3.25 | 3.06 3.12 | 108.03 113.17 October | 2.23 2.31 | 3.15 3.24 | 3.56 2.97 | 126.03 107.29 November | 2.41 2.50 | 3.15 3.09 | 3.66 2.98 | 131.18 108.76 December | 2.54 2.26 | 3.12 2.83 | 3.62 2.84 | 126.40 102.88 January | 2.51 2.38 | 3.15 2.91 | 3.58 2.95 | 125.30 106.19 February | 2.33 . | 3.10 . | 3.36 . | 116.48 . March | 2.44 . | 3.22 . | 3.43 . | 117.95 . April | 2.44 . | 3.23 . | 3.31 . | 113.90 . May | 2.45 . | 3.17 . | 3.11 . | 112.07 . ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Mid-month price for current month of the 1999/00 marketing year. N.A.-not available. N/Q-no quote. Source: NASS & AMS, USDA. Table 6--Wheat: U.S. exports and imports for last 6 months, 2/15/00 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Exports, (1,000 bu.) 1999 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Item 1/ | June July August September October November ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Wheat grain | 90,594 110,814 107,168 91,438 96,154 89,211 Wheat flour | 5,900 5,085 3,673 6,503 4,576 2,332 Products | 520 571 656 401 374 283 Total | 97,013 116,471 111,496 98,343 101,105 91,826 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Imports, (1,000 bu.) 1999 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Item 1/ | June July August September October November -------------|--------------------------------------------------------------- Wheat grain | 7,565 9,405 8,201 4,839 4,570 4,712 Wheat flour | 627 593 593 537 556 634 Products | 1,303 1,112 1,181 1,041 1,275 1,308 Total | 9,496 11,110 9,974 6,418 6,402 6,655 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Census. 1/ Wheat flour and products converted to wheat grain equivalent. Totals may not add due to rounding. Monthly and quarterly estimates since 1995/96 are available in ERS Autofax Document 12181, and electronically at www.econ.ag.gov/briefing/wheat/data. Table 7--Wheat: U.S. exports, Census and Export Sales comparison, 2/15/00 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | 1997/98 | 1998/99 | 1999/2000 (as of 2/3/00) Importing |-----------------------------------|-------------------------- country | | Ship- |Outstanding| Total | Shipments | ments | sales | ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Data | | Export | | Export | Export Source | Census | sales | Census | sales | Sales ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | --1,000 metric tons-- Country: | Egypt | 4,837 | 4,982 | 4,516 | 4,397 | 3,268 176 3,444 EU | 1,302 | 1,298 | 1,421 | 1,407 | 1,018 141 1,159 Israel | 830 | 786 | 716 | 734 | 613 75 688 Japan | 3,169 | 3,373 | 3,076 | 3,201 | 1,970 500 2,470 S. Korea | 1,446 | 1,400 | 1,534 | 1,366 | 952 333 1,285 Mexico | 1,156 | 1,151 | 1,734 | 1,860 | 1,410 293 1,703 Nigeria | 730 | 817 | 1,238 | 1,300 | 890 123 1,013 Pakistan | 2,180 | 2,232 | 867 | 844 | 401 0 401 Philippines | 1,458 | 1,531 | 1,682 | 1,749 | 1,380 283 1,663 Taiwan | 1,003 | 975 | 889 | 920 | 646 175 821 Total grain | 27,295 | 27,518 | 27,202 | 25,555 | 18,398 2,898 21,296 Total(incl) | | | | | products) | 28,308 | 27,626 | 28,359 | 25,648 | 18,435 2,903 21,338 USDA forecast | | | | | of Census | | | | | 28,577 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/Export sales and shipments from USDA's weekly U.S. Export Sales report. Table 8-- Wheat and flour products: U.S. imports, 1989/90-1999/2000 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Marketing year Wheat Flour mill Other Total grain Total beginning grain products 1/ products 2/ and products food June (wt. equiv.) (wt. equiv.) (wt. equiv.) use ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ --------------------- 1,000 bushels ------------------- 1989/90 12,583 502 9,369 22,454 748,918 1990/91 25,540 901 9,932 36,373 789,797 1991/92 30,924 923 8,751 40,598 789,478 1992/93 56,859 3,122 9,435 69,416 834,841 1993/94 91,287 6,486 11,086 108,859 871,664 1994/95 70,561 8,073 13,313 91,947 852,981 1995/96 47,753 6,687 13,493 67,933 882,876 1996/97 71,727 6,386 14,220 92,333 890,719 1997/98 73,245 6,055 15,623 94,923 914,119 1998/99 79,766 7,423 15,815 103,004 907,256 3/ 1999/00 1st qtr. 4/ 25,171 1,813 3,596 30,580 223,659 3/ 1999/00 2nd qtr. 5/ 14,122 1,728 3,624 19,474 238,235 3/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Includes wheat flour, semolina, meal and groats. 2/ Includes wheat pellets, macaroni and pasta products, and couscous. 3/ Preliminary. 4/ June-August. 5/ September-November. Table 9-- Durum and pasta products: U.S. imports, 1989/90-1999/2000 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Marketing year Wheat Flour mill Pasta Total grain Total beginning grain products 1/ products 2/ and products food June (wt. equiv.) (wt. equiv.) (wt. equiv.) use ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ --------------------- 1,000 bushels ------------------- 1989/90 7,606 100 5,341 13,047 59,000 1990/91 12,938 282 5,742 18,962 64,740 1991/92 13,519 283 6,324 20,126 69,313 1992/93 18,706 505 7,049 26,260 73,935 1993/94 21,536 756 8,314 30,606 80,671 1994/95 11,582 919 9,787 22,288 77,397 1995/96 7,329 806 10,216 18,351 79,231 1996/97 12,271 900 10,578 23,749 76,163 1997/98 16,305 794 12,070 29,169 72,919 1998/99 20,492 1,048 11,920 33,460 67,504 3/ 1999/00 1st qtr. 4/ 7,782 357 2,674 10,813 15,569 3/ 1999/00 2nd qtr. 5/ 3,612 404 2,656 6,672 16,577 3/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Includes, semolina, durum flour, and couscous. 2/ Includes durum pasta products, and assumes that 80 percent of the wheat content of pasta products is durum semolina. 3/ Preliminary. 4/ June-August. 5/ September-November. END_OF_FILE