WHEAT OUTLOOK April 13, 2000 April 2000, WHS-0400 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WHEAT OUTLOOK is issued 11 times a year by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. Electronic release only; no published copies are available. WHEAT OUTLOOK is supplemented by an annual WHEAT YEARBOOK. The yearbook summary for 2000 was released on March 27, 2000. Yearbooks are available in print from ERS-NASS Order Desk. For the 2000 issue, call 1-800-999-6779 (703-605-6220) and ask for stock #ERS-WHS-2000, $21.The report is available as AutoFax document 12105. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Highlights -- March 1 Wheat Stocks Down from a Year Ago -- Import Projections Lowered This Month -- Domestic Use and Export Projections for 1999/2000 Are Up -- World Production, Consumption, and Trade Forecast Up This Month -- U.S. 1999/2000 Export Forecast Increased as Donation Pace Accelerates -- Prospective Wheat Plantings Are Down 2 Percent from Last Year -- Winter Wheat Crop Conditions Down from a Year Ago But Improving March 1 Wheat Stocks Down from a Year Ago The Grain Stocks report, released by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) on March 31, estimated all wheat stocks in all positions on March 1 at 1.41 million bushels, down 3 percent from March 1, 1999. Off-farm stocks were estimated at 989 million bushels, up 1 percent from a year ago. Farm stocks were estimated at 423 million bushels, down 10 percent from last year. Farmers in Montana, North Dakota, and South Dakota accounted for 63 percent of the wheat stocks stored on-farm on March 1, 2000. The lower-than-expected stocks imply a positive feed and residual use during the third quarter of 39 million bushels. Implied total wheat disappearance for the December-February quarter is estimated at 498 million bushels, up about 23 million from the same period in 1998/99. Third quarter estimates will be firmed up in May when wheat and product trade estimates for February and mill grind estimates for the first quarter of calender 2000 are available from the Census Bureau. Revised mill grind estimates for calendar year 1999 will likely be released by the Bureau of the Census before the May report is released. Import Projection Lowered This Month After a fast start during the summer of 1999, the pace of imports of wheat and wheat products has slowed in recent months. As a result, the projection of total imports is reduced 5 million bushels this month to 90 million. If realized, this will be the lowest import level since 1995/96. Only two wheat classes were affected by this change. The white wheat import forecast was reduced 1 million bushels, and the durum import forecast was reduced 4 million bushels. Limited supplies of high quality wheat in Canada may be constraining imports from Canada. Domestic Use and Export Projections for 1999/2000 Are Up Ending stocks for 1999/2000 are projected at 943.4 million bushels, slightly below last year's carryover of 945.9 million. The larger than expected feed and residual use in the third quarter resulted in a 25-million-bushel increase in the forecast of feed and residual use for the 1999/2000 marketing year. Feed and residual use for all wheat is now projected at 325 million bushels for the year. If this level is realized, feed and residual use for the fourth quarter will be positive, an outcome observed in past years when ending stocks have been large. Seed use in 1999/2000 was reduced 1 million this month. Projected total food use is unchanged from last month, but the food use projection for hard red spring (HRS) was increased, offsetting a reduction in the food use projection for hard red winter (HRW) wheat. There are indications that millers continue to blend larger quantities of the higher protein HRS wheat with the lower protein HRW. Export projections for individual classes were increased this month as prospects for shipping donations in the current marketing year improve. Also, the pace of export sales and shipments indicated that projections for selected classes needed to be increased. Therefore, the export estimates for HRS, soft red winter (SRW), and white classes of wheat were increased by 10 million, 5 million, and 10 million bushels, respectively. World Production, Consumption, and Trade Forecast Up This Month World wheat production in 1999/2000 is forecast at 587 million tons, up 1.4 million from last month. Argentina's wheat production was increased 0.5 million tons to 15 million because area and yield were higher than earlier expected. Information from Ethiopia indicates that although the summer crops were devastated by drought, winter wheat production was 0.9 million tons larger than previously estimated. The world wheat consumption forecast for 1999/2000 increased 2.7 million tons this month to a record 597 million. Foreign consumption increased 2.0 million tons, with Ethiopia expected to consume its increased production. Wheat consumption is expected to increase in several countries with increased imports or reduced exports, including Indonesia, the Philippines, and Ukraine. These increases more than offset small reductions in consumption forecast for Iran, Venezuela, and Egypt. Although forecast 1999/2000 global consumption growth is up a little less than 1 percent from a year earlier this month, it is off the pace of recent years. Since 1996/97, estimated global wheat consumption has been increasing about 1 percent per year. A factor limiting 1999/2000 growth in world wheat consumption has been stagnant or declining feed use. Although wheat prices have been fairly low, corn prices have been enough lower to discourage wheat feeding outside the United States. Foreign wheat feed use is forecast little changed from the previous year because increased wheat feeding in the EU is offset by reduced feeding in countries like South Korea that are more sensitive to world prices. Global wheat feeding is down in 1999/2000 because of the year-to-year decline in feed and residual use in the United States (although the forecast was increased this month). U.S. 1999/2000 Export Forecast Increased as Donation Pace Accelerates World wheat trade is forecast to reach 104.8 million tons in 1999/2000, up 0.5 million from last month. The increase stems from a rise in the U.S. export forecast that is partially due to an anticipated strong pace of donations scheduled for shipment before the end of the marketing year. Imports were boosted in several countries receiving shipments, including Indonesia, and Pakistan. There are also increases for the Philippines and United Arab Emirates that are not due to the expected U.S. donations. Forecast world trade is the highest in 12 years, and the second highest ever. The growth in trade appears to result from a combination of factors. Drought across the Middle East and parts of North Africa has boosted demand, and a second year of production problems has increased Russia's imports. However, foreign consumption growth has not accelerated, and exceptional production problems--not consumption growth--are expanding world trade. Prospective Wheat Plantings Are Down 2 Percent from Last Year USDA released its Prospective Plantings report on March 31, 2000. Farmers were surveyed in the first 2 weeks of March to determine 2000 planting intentions. All wheat planted acreage is estimated at 61.66 million acres, down 2 percent from last year and the lowest since 1973. The area seeded to winter wheat this year, pegged at 43.24 million acres, is down 186,000 acres from 1999, but 329,000 above the indications in the Winter Wheat Seedings report released in January. Of the total, an estimated 70 percent is seeded to hard red winter (HRW) wheat varieties, 22 percent is seeded to soft red winter (SRW) wheat varieties, and 8 percent is seeded to white winter wheat varieties. Producers' planting intentions for durum and other spring wheat in 2000 total 18.42 million acres. Hard Red Winter Wheat--An estimated 30.49 million acres are seeded to HRW wheats for the 2000 crop. This HRW acreage is down 36,0000 acres from 1999, reflecting declines in all the major HRW producing States of the Central and Southern Plains (Colorado, down 2 percent; Kansas, down 2 percent; Nebraska, down 7 percent; Oklahoma, down 5 percent; and Texas, down 3 percent). Producers in Montana indicated that winter wheat plantings will increase to 1.5 million acres in 2000, up 450,000 acres or 43 percent from a year ago. Soft Red Winter Wheat--Producers seeded 9.3 million acres to SRW wheats for the 2000 crop. This area is about 26,000 acres more than was seeded for harvest in 1999, and it reflects modest acreage increases in a number of States. White Wheat--Producers seeded 3.46 million acres to white winter wheat in the fall of 1999. Producers indicated intentions to seed another 984,000 acres to white spring wheat in 2000, bringing the total area seeded to white wheat varieties to 4.44 million in 2000. Other Spring Wheat--Other spring wheat (excluding durum) intended acres are down 4 percent from 1999 to 14.81 million. If realized, this will be the smallest area since 1988. Spring wheat prices are the lowest in several years. About 13.83 million of the prospective acres are hard red spring (HRS), with the remainder white spring (WS). HRS area will be down about 20 percent in South Dakota, reflecting primarily a shift to the planting of soybeans and corn in 2000. Montana growers are intending to reduce area seeded to other spring by 450,000 acres in 2000, a reduction equal to the expansion in area seeded to winter wheat in that State last fall. Other spring wheat acreage will down in the Pacific Northwest where white spring wheat is grown. Washington farmers are planning to seed 670,000 acres this year, up from 625,000 last year. In Oregon, the area seeded is expected to decrease to 115,000 acres, down from 160,000 in 1999. Idaho growers are expected to seed 630,000 acres in 2000, down from 660,000 last year. In Oregon and Washington the area seeded to white winter wheat represents offsetting changes. Durum Wheat--Producers indicated plans to reduce durum wheat acres to 3.61 million, down 11 percent from last year and the lowest since 1997. In North Dakota, planting intentions indicate that area will decline 550,000 acres from 1999 and is projected at 2.9 million acres, the smallest area since 1997. Economic incentives associated with the pilot crop revenue coverage (CRC) insurance program offered for durum in 1999 are not a determining factor in planting decisions in 2000. Durum area in Montana is expected to increase 47 percent to 530,000 acres, the largest area since 1957. In contrast, Montana producers significantly reduced acreage intentions for "other spring" wheat. Acreage seeded to "desert durum" will drop slightly in 2000. Arizona and California seedings continued into February. Seedings in the Imperial Valley of California progressed normally through February. Arizona acreage will be up slightly, partially offsetting a decline in California. Winter Wheat Crop Conditions Down from a Year Ago But Improving Winter wheat crop conditions are below a year ago, but conditions continue to improve with warmer weather and recent rains. However, Texas is a major exception, as drought has affected the crop and hail damage has been devastating at some locations. As of April 9, USDA's Crop Progress report indicated that 61 percent of the winter wheat crop was rated in good to excellent condition nationwide, down from 73 percent on the same date last year. Above-normal temperatures promoted early, rapid development in the Great Plains, Corn Belt, and Southeast. The Kansas wheat crop was said to have sustained only minimal winterkill, wind damage, and freeze damage, according to the Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin issued by the Kansas Agricultural Statistics Service. As of April 9, 59 percent of the Kansas crop was rated good to excellent, down from 75 percent the previous year. However, the crop progress is well ahead of normal, with 60 percent of the crop jointing, compared with 51 percent in 1999 and the 5-year average of 40 percent. Winter wheat conditions in Texas are rated as 15 percent good to excellent, down from 52 percent the previous year. On April 9, 56 percent of the crop was rated as poor or very poor. Some fields that were not abandoned earlier continued to be grazed out and plowed. Abandonment is expected to be up substantially in 2000. Texas wheat producers expect to harvest 75 million bushels this year, 39 percent less than the 1999 crop and 45 percent less than the 1998 crop. According to an April 1 survey conducted by the Texas Agricultural Statistics Service, planted acreage for the 2000 crop is estimated at 6 million acres, down 3 percent from 1999 and down 2 percent from 1998. Texas is the only State that makes an April 1 winter wheat production estimate. The first national wheat forecast will be released by the National Agricultural Statistics Service on May 12, 2000. Oklahoma's winter wheat crop was rated 75 percent good to excellent, down from 90 percent a year ago. The Oklahoma crop is developing rapidly with 89 percent of the State's acreage jointing. Wheat is starting to head in the central and southern districts of Oklahoma. Some wheat was reportedly cut for hay in the southwestern district. Some irrigated wheat in the Oklahoma Panhandle will likely be cut for hay to fill the critical need for forage. Conditions in other States were: Colorado, 83 percent good to excellent; Nebraska, 48 percent rated good to excellent; South Dakota, 71 percent; and Montana, 56 percent. The overall lack of snow cover during the winter in Montana allowed some wind damage to occur to the winter wheat crop. An estimated 10 percent of the Montana winter wheat crop had moderate to heavy wind damage, but freeze and drought damage was minimal, with moderate to heavy damage affecting only 5 percent of the State's crop. Many of these acres may be replanted to durum or other spring wheat. Supply and Use Projections for 2000/01 The first official U.S., world, and country-specific supply and use projections for 2000/01 will be in the May 12 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report. Those projections will be analyzed in the May 16 Wheat Outlook report. ----------------------------------------------------------------- -------------Information Contacts: Mack N. Leath (Report Coordinator) (202) 694-5302 Gary Vocke (Domestic) (202) 694-5285 Edward W. Allen (International) (202) 694-5288 Jenny Gonzales (Data Coordinator) (202) 694-5296 Electronic copies available at: World Wide Web Site wwwn.ers.usda.gov ERS Autofax system (202) 694-5700 Document Number 12105 NOTICE: ERS Plans to Shift to All-Internet Distribution of Wheat Documents and Data Products in July 2000 Recent data indicate that very few people are obtaining reports and data from the ERS Autofax system. However, maintaining this system is costly to us. As a result, we are planning to phase out Autofax access to the monthly Wheat Outlook report (Autofax Document 12105) as of July 2000. Starting in July, we plan to only provide access to this report through the Internet. You can find this document at http://www.ers.usda.gov in PDF and ASCII formats. Select "Outlook Reports," then "Wheat." It will be available on the same schedule through the Internet as through the Autofax (e.g., at approximately 9:00 a.m. EST on the day of release). The next electronic Wheat Outlook report will be issued on May 16, 2000. The 2000 Wheat Yearbook data tables are available at: 1) ERS Web Site: www.ers.usda.gov/, select "Data Products," then "Field Crops," then "Wheat," then "Wheat Yearbook." 2) ERS Web Site: www.ers.usda.gov/, select "Wheat" Briefing Room, then "Data," then "Wheat Yearbook," and select desired table. The "README.TXT" file contains a list of appendix and text tables by title. 3) ERS AutoFax; Call (202) 694-5700 and select document 12100 for a complete directory of the historical tables (2000 is the last year that the AutoFax tables will be updated). Other wheat articles and publications may be obtained from the ERS "Wheat Briefing Room" at http://www.ers.usda.gov/briefing/wheat. Look in the "Articles and Publications" section. ------------------------------------------------------------- Table 1--Wheat: U.S. market year supply and disappearance, 4/13/00 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Item 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99E 1999/00P ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Area: (mil. ac.) National total base 88.9 88.5 87.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 Eff. base/Ctr. acres 0,50/92,85 5.2 6.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 CRP base retired 10.8 10.8 10.6 10.1 9.7 0.0 Planted 70.3 69.0 75.1 70.4 65.8 62.8 Harvested 61.8 61.0 62.8 62.8 59.0 53.9 Yield: (bu/acre) 37.6 35.8 36.3 39.5 43.2 42.7 Supply: (mil. bu.) Beginning stocks 568.5 506.6 376.0 443.6 722.5 945.9 Production 2,321.0 2,182.7 2,277.4 2,481.5 2,547.3 2,302.4 Imports 1/ 91.9 67.9 92.3 94.9 103.0 95.0 Total supply 2,981.4 2,757.2 2,745.7 3,020.0 3,372.8 3,343.4 Use: Food 853.0 882.9 890.7 914.1 907.3 905.0 Seed 89.0 103.5 102.3 92.5 80.7 90.0 Feed and residual 344.5 153.7 307.6 250.5 396.6 325.0 Total domestic 1,286.6 1,140.1 1,300.6 1,257.1 1,384.5 1,320.0 Exports 1/ 1,188.3 1,241.1 1,001.5 1,040.4 1,042.4 1,075.0 Total use 2,474.8 2,381.2 2,302.1 2,297.5 2,426.9 2,395.0 Ending stocks: 506.6 376.0 443.6 722.5 945.9 943.4 Farmer-owned reserve 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 CCC inventory 2/ 142.0 118.0 93.0 94.0 128.0 100.0 Free stocks 364.6 258.0 350.6 628.5 817.9 843.4 Stocks-to-use ratio 20.5 15.8 19.3 31.4 39.0 39.4 Prices: ($/bu.) Target price 4.00 4.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Loan rate 2.58 2.58 2.58 2.58 2.58 2.58 Contract rate 3/ 0.61 0.00 0.87 0.63 0.66 0.64 Ave. farm price 3.45 4.55 4.30 3.38 2.65 2.50 Contract payments (mil. dollars) 3/ 1,146 100 1,941 1,413 1,972 2,397 Market value of production (mil. dollars) 8,007 9,787 9,782 8,387 6,781 5,756 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Source: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, WAOB, USDA. Totals may not add due to rounding. E=Estimated, P=Projected, N.A.=not applicable. 1/ Imports and exports include flour and other products expressed in wheat equivalent. 2/ Includes Food Security Reserve. 3/ Deficiency payments prior to 1996/97. Table 2--Wheat: U.S. market year supply and disappearance, 4/13/00 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1998/99 E HRW HRS SRW White Durum All wheat ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Area: Million acres Planted 32.22 14.80 10.18 4.81 3.80 65.82 Harvested 27.27 14.37 9.08 4.56 3.73 59.02 Bushels per acre Yield: 43.3 34.8 48.8 65.9 37.0 43.2 Supply: Million bushels Beg. stocks 306.7 220.0 80.0 90.0 25.8 722.5 Production 1,179.5 486.4 442.7 300.7 138.1 2,547.3 Imports 2/ 0.9 58.2 0.0 10.5 33.5 103.0 Total 1487.0 764.5 522.7 401.2 197.4 3372.8 Utilization: Food 384.8 230.0 150.0 75.0 67.5 907.3 Seed 34.8 18.2 17.6 6.1 4.0 80.7 Feed and residual 179.4 36.1 114.5 35.0 31.6 396.6 Total domestic 598.9 284.3 282.1 116.1 103.1 1,384.5 Exports 2/ 453.0 247.2 104.6 198.1 39.5 1,042.4 Total 1,051.9 531.5 386.7 314.2 142.6 2,426.9 Ending stocks: 435.1 233.0 136.0 87.0 54.8 945.9 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1999/00 P HRW HRS SRW White Durum All wheat ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Area: Million acres Planted 30.85 14.34 9.13 4.45 4.04 62.81 Harvested 24.45 13.79 8.02 4.09 3.57 53.91 Bushels per acre Yield: 43.2 32.5 56.5 60.3 27.8 42.7 Supply: Million bushels Beg. stocks 435.1 233.0 136.0 87.0 54.8 945.9 Production 1,055.0 447.9 453.4 246.8 99.3 2,302.4 Imports 2/ 1.0 55.0 0.0 6.0 28.0 90.0 Total 1,491.1 735.9 589.4 339.8 182.1 3,338.4 Utilization: Total domestic 519.0 303.3 302.9 101.1 93.5 1,320.0 Exports 2/ 485.0 225.0 165.0 160.0 40.0 1,075.0 Total 1,004.0 528.3 467.9 261.1 133.5 2,395.0 Ending stocks: 486.9 207.7 121.5 78.7 48.6 943.4 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Source: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, WAOB, USDA. Totals may not add due to rounding. E=Estimated, P=Projected. 1/ ERS estimates of area, yield, and domestic use. 2/ Imports and exports include flour and other products expressed in wheat equivalent. Table 3--Wheat: Quarterly supply and disappearance (1,000 bu.), 4/13/00 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Market Produc- Imports Supply Food Seed Feed Exports Ending Year tion 1/ 1/ stocks ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Million bushels 1997/98: Jun-Aug 2,481 23 2,948 228 3 352 288 2,076 Sep-Nov --- 23 2,099 239 59 (113) 296 1,619 Dec-Feb --- 24 1,643 219 2 0 255 1,167 Mar-May --- 26 1,192 228 29 11 201 722 Mkt. year 2,481 95 3,020 914 92 251 1,040 722 1998/99 E: Jun-Aug 2,547 24 3,294 226 1 425 257 2,385 Sep-Nov --- 24 2,409 241 55 (74) 292 1,896 Dec-Feb --- 28 1,923 213 1 12 247 1,450 Mar-May --- 27 1,477 228 23 34 247 946 Mkt. year 2,547 103 3,373 907 81 397 1,042 946 1999/00 P: Jun-Aug 2,302 31 3,279 224 6 279 325 2,445 Sep-Nov --- 19 2,465 238 54 (5) 291 1,886 Dec-Feb --- 17 1,903 217 2 38 233 1,412 Mar-May --- 23 1,435 226 27 13 226 943 Mkt. year 2,302 90 3,338 905 90 325 1,075 943 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Totals might not add due to rounding. E=Estimated, P=Projected. 1/ Imports and exports include flour and selected products expressed in wheat equivalent. Table 4--Monthly food use estimates for last 12 months, (1,000 bu.), 4/13/00 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Item | February March April May June July ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Mill grind + | 69,355 73,582 75,536 77,233 73,892 73,438 Food imports 1/ + | 1,766 1,860 1,836 1,803 1,927 1,703 Non-flour | food use 2/ + | 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 Food exports 1/ - | 3,535 4,323 3,304 2,107 6,113 5,289 Food use* = | 69,586 73,119 76,068 78,929 71,707 71,852 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Item | August September October November December January ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Mill grind + | 80,263 77,179 83,883 80,289 75,363 N/A Food imports 1/ + | 1,772 1,576 1,830 1,939 2,066 2,277 Non-flour | food use 2/ + | 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 Food exports 1/ - | 3,932 6,904 4,950 2,607 6,812 3,245 Food use* = | 80,103 73,851 82,763 81,621 72,617 N/A ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Census. Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Wheat flour and products converted to wheat grain equivalent. 2/ ERS estimate of cereal use. N/A=not available Table 5--Wheat: Farm prices and prices at selected markets ($/bu.), 4/13/00 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | ---------------------- Farm prices ------------------------- Month | All wheat | Winter | Durum | Other spring | 98/99 99/00 | 98/99 99/00 | 98/99 99/00 | 98/99 99/00 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ June | 2.77 2.50 | 2.68 2.32 | 3.98 2.93 | 3.22 3.01 July | 2.56 2.23 | 2.47 2.13 | 3.39 2.89 | 3.08 2.93 August | 2.38 2.52 | 2.25 2.34 | 3.23 2.74 | 2.69 2.85 September | 2.39 2.57 | 2 29 2.46 | 3.03 2.30 | 2.62 2.86 October | 2.77 2.58 | 2.66 2.47 | 3.04 2.17 | 3.04 2.80 November | 2.95 2.66 | 2.76 2.42 | 3.08 2.62 | 3.23 2.95 December | 2.86 2.52 | 2.68 2.27 | 3.05 2.96 | 3.19 2.87 January | 2.84 2.50 | 2.70 2.32 | 3.20 2.89 | 3.12 2.80 February | 2.73 2.54 | 2.55 2.37 | 2.84 2.89 | 3.09 2.82 March 1/ | 2.65 2.57 | 2.53 2.37 | 2.82 2.84 | 3.00 2.85 April | 2.62 . | 2.48 . | 2.80 . | 2.95 . May | 2.49 . | 2.34 . | 2.84 . | 2.92 . ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | KC HRW #1 | KC HRW #1 | Minneapolis | Minneapolis Month | ordinary | 13% protein | DNS 14% prot. | #1 HAD milling | 98/99 99/00 | 98/99 99/00 | 98/99 99/00 | 98/99 99/00 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ June | 3.16 2.93 | 3.57 3.22 | 4.01 3.73 | 5.00 N/Q July | 3.02 2.68 | 3.57 3.39 | 3.89 3.68 | 4.59 3.92 August | 2.74 2.85 | 3.12 3.42 | 3.58 3.58 | 4.20 3.73 September | 2.81 2.92 | 3.17 3.52 | 3.53 3.55 | 3.78 4.14 October | 3.30 2.80 | 3.67 3.40 | 4.03 3.70 | 4.04 4.46 November | 3.42 2.89 | 3.89 3.54 | 4.15 3.78 | 4.15 4.80 December | 3.31 2.81 | 3.74 3.44 | 3.97 3.64 | 4.05 N/Q January | 3.27 2.90 | 3.61 3.46 | 3.92 3.37 | 3.91 N/Q February | 3.05 2.94 | 3.35 3.37 | 3.78 3.59 | 3.67 4.40 March | 3.02 . | 3.34 . | 3.79 . | 3.65 . April | 2.94 . | 3.34 . | 3.65 . | 3.61 . May | 2.89 . | 3.28 . | 3.61 . | N/Q . ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | St. Louis | Portland | Portland | FOB Gulf Month | #2 SRW | #1 soft white | #1 HRW Ord. | $/ton (HRW) | 98/99 99/00 | 98/99 99/00 | 98/99 99/00 | 98/99 99/00 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- June | 2.66 2.31 | 2.93 3.17 | 3.37 3.10 | 120.52 110.60 July | 2.43 N.A. | 2.72 3.06 | 3.04 2.83 | 117.95 101.04 August | 2.26 2.22 | 2.66 3.14 | 2.93 3.00 | 108.76 109.86 September | 2.12 2.48 | 2.69 3.25 | 3.06 3.12 | 108.03 113.17 October | 2.23 2.31 | 3.15 3.24 | 3.56 2.97 | 126.03 107.29 November | 2.41 2.50 | 3.15 3.09 | 3.66 2.98 | 131.18 108.76 December | 2.54 2.26 | 3.12 2.83 | 3.62 2.84 | 126.40 102.88 January | 2.51 2.38 | 3.15 2.91 | 3.58 2.95 | 125.30 106.19 February | 2.33 2.51 | 3.10 2.88 | 3.36 3.01 | 116.48 109.86 March | 2.44 . | 3.22 . | 3.43 . | 117.95 . April | 2.44 . | 3.23 . | 3.31 . | 113.90 . May | 2.45 . | 3.17 . | 3.11 . | 112.07 . ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Mid-month price for current month of the 1999/00 marketing year. N.A.-not available. N/Q-no quote. Source: NASS & AMS, USDA. Table 6--Wheat: U.S. exports and imports for last 6 months, 4/13/00 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Exports, (1,000 bu.) 1999/2000 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Item 1/ | August September October November December January ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Wheat grain | 107,168 91,438 96,154 89,211 84,460 71,763 Wheat flour | 3,673 6,503 4,576 2,332 6,566 2,924 Products | 656 401 374 283 246 322 Total | 111,496 98,343 101,105 91,826 91,272 75,010 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Imports, (1,000 bu.) 1999/2000 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Item 1/ | August September October November December January -------------|--------------------------------------------------------------- Wheat grain | 8,201 4,839 4,570 4,712 4,711 2,971 Wheat flour | 593 537 556 634 636 764 Products | 1,181 1,041 1,275 1,308 1,433 1,827 Total | 9,974 6,418 6,402 6,655 6,779 2,590 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Census. 1/ Wheat flour and products converted to wheat grain equivalent. Totals may not add due to rounding. Monthly and quarterly estimates since 1995/96 are available in ERS AutoFax Document 12181, and electronically at www.ers.usda.gov/briefing/wheat/data. Table 7--Wheat: U.S. exports, Census and Export Sales comparison, 4/13/00 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | 1997/98 | 1998/99 | 1999/2000 (as of 3/30/00) Importing |-----------------------------------|-------------------------- country | | Ship- |Outstanding| Total | Shipments | ments | sales | ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Data | | Export | | Export | Export Source | Census | sales | Census | sales | Sales ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | --1,000 metric tons-- Country: | Egypt | 4,837 | 4,982 | 4,516 | 4,397 | 3,566 356 3,923 EU | 1,302 | 1,298 | 1,421 | 1,407 | 1,068 288 1,356 Israel | 830 | 786 | 716 | 734 | 741 75 816 Japan | 3,169 | 3,373 | 3,076 | 3,201 | 2,447 648 3,095 S. Korea | 1,446 | 1,400 | 1,534 | 1,366 | 1,253 253 1,506 Mexico | 1,156 | 1,151 | 1,734 | 1,860 | 1,759 150 1,909 Nigeria | 730 | 817 | 1,238 | 1,300 | 1,020 142 1,162 Pakistan | 2,180 | 2,232 | 867 | 844 | 401 0 401 Philippines | 1,458 | 1,531 | 1,682 | 1,749 | 1,681 398 2,079 Taiwan | 1,003 | 975 | 889 | 920 | 862 140 1,002 Total grain | 27,295 | 27,518 | 27,202 | 25,555 | 21,486 3,218 24,704 Total(incl) | | | | | products) | 28,308 | 27,626 | 28,359 | 25,648 | 21,527 3,226 24,754 USDA forecast | | | | | of Census | | | | | 29,257 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/Export sales and shipments from USDA's weekly U.S. Export Sales report. END_OF_FILE