WHEAT OUTLOOK May 16, 2000 May 2000, WHS-0500 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WHEAT OUTLOOK is issued 11 times a year by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. Electronic release only; no published copies are available. WHEAT OUTLOOK is supplemented by an annual WHEAT YEARBOOK. The yearbook summary for 2000 was released on March 27, 2000. Yearbooks are available in print from ERS-NASS Order Desk. For the 2000 issue, call 1-800-999-6779 (703-605-6220) and ask for stock #ERS-WHS-2000, $21. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WHEAT OUTLOOK is issued 11 times a year in electronic form by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. Printed copies are not available. The report is available as AutoFax document 12105. Highlights -- U.S. Wheat Production Off in 2000/01 as Harvest Gets Underway in Texas -- Good Winter Wheat Yields Forecast for 2000 -- The 2000/01 Outlook Calls for Lower Ending Stocks and Higher Prices -- The 1999/2000 Balance Sheet Is Revised from Last Month -- Global Wheat Production and Stocks Forecast To Decline in 2000/01 -- World Wheat Trade Expected To Expand In 2000/01, U.S. Exports Up -- Bureau of the Census Expands Coverage in Flour Milling Survey The outlook for U.S. wheat in 2000/01 is for a smaller crop, increased use, lower ending stocks, and higher prices. U.S. production is projected down 3 percent from 1999/2000 largely because of lower harvested area. With smaller carryin stocks and higher imports than in 1999/2000, U.S. supplies are down only 2 percent. Domestic use is projected down 15 million bushels as increased use of wheat for food is more than offset by reduced wheat feeding. Exports are up 50 million bushels, leaving ending stocks down 101 million bushels from projected beginning stocks. The projected farm price range is $2.40 to $2.90 per bushel in 2000/01, compared with a $2.50 estimate for 1999/2000. U.S. Wheat Production Off in 2000/01 as Harvest Gets Underway in Texas All Wheat--U.S. wheat production is projected to total 3.27 billion bushels in 2000, down about 3 percent from 1999. This includes the winter wheat forecast plus a projected spring wheat crop (including durum) of 590 million bushels. The projected spring wheat output is based on farmers' planting intentions reported in USDA's March 31 Prospective Plantings report. Harvested acres and yield for spring wheat (including durum) are projected using average harvest-to-planted ratios and average yields by State in 1995-99. Winter Wheat--USDA forecasts 2000 U.S. winter wheat production at 1.65 billion bushels, down 3 percent from 1999. This production forecast was reported in USDA's May 12 Crop Production report. The smaller output reflects lower harvested acreage and a lower yield. Harvested area totals 34.7 million acres, down 2 percent from 1999 and the smallest since 1971. Based on conditions as of May 1, the U.S. winter wheat yield is forecast at 47.5 bushels per acre. This is down only 0.3 bushels from last year's record of 47.8 bushels. Winter Wheat by Class--Production of all classes of winter wheat is forecast down from last year with hard red winter (HRW) wheat showing the largest absolute decline--79 million bushels. HRW production is forecast to total 976 million bushels, down 7 percent from 1999. Harvested acreage for HRW is estimated to total 23.4 million acres, and average yield is pegged at 41.7 bushels per acre. Production of soft red winter (SRW) wheat is forecast at 445 million bushels this year, 2 percent below last year. Harvested acreage for SRW is estimated to total 8.0 million acres, and average yield is pegged at 55.6 bushels per acre. White winter (WW) wheat production is forecast at 228 million bushels in 2000, up 19 percent from poor crop in 1999. Harvested acreage for WW is estimated to total 3.3 million acres, and average yield is pegged at 69.4 bushels per acre. Good Winter Wheat Yields Forecast for 2000 A mild winter followed by generally favorable spring weather has pushed crop development slightly ahead of average. An average of 51 percent of the crop was headed as of May 7, compared with the 5-year average of 34 percent. In Kansas, the largest wheat producing State, the crop is forecast to total 405 million bushels, down from 432 million a year earlier. Forecast harvested acres are unchanged while the forecast yield of 44 bushels per acre is down 3 bushels from 1999. In Oklahoma, the crop is forecast to total 156 million, up about 5 million from last year. The increase is due to higher yields, as producers plan to harvest 200,000 fewer acres in 2000. Dry conditions in Texas led to a 35 percent or 1.2-million-acre reduction in forecast harvested area and a reduction in forecast yield of 4 bushels from 1999. The winter wheat wheat crop in the Pacific Northwest appears to be much improved over last year, with higher yields indicated for the States of Idaho, Washington, and Oregon. The yield for Oregon, forecast at 64 bushels per acre, is 17 bushels above the low yields last year. Winter wheat yields in Michigan and New York (the major white wheat producing States in the east) are expected to be down from last year's records. As of May 7, 79 percent of the spring wheat crop was seeded, up from 56 percent in 1999, and well above the average of 44 percent. Emergence was also ahead of schedule at 45 percent, up from 25 percent a year ago and above the 5-year average of 18 percent. The 2000/01 Outlook Calls for Lower Ending Stocks and Higher Prices With large beginning stocks (only 8 million bushels below the burdensome level a year earlier) and slightly higher year-over-year imports, the U.S. wheat supply in 2000/01 is forecast to drop only 2 percent to 3.27 billion bushels, the third largest supply since 1987/88. The current balance sheet indicates that production and imports will almost satisfy a large proportion of domestic use and export projections during 2000/01. As a result, the current burdensome carryover stocks will only be reduced by 101 million bushels at the end of the marketing year. Domestic demand is projected down as weak corn prices and large corn supplies will keep wheat feeding in check. Feed and residual use is projected at 300 million bushels, down 25 million from 1999/2000. Food use is up 15 million because of population growth and the inclusion of additional establishments in the list of durum milling firms included in the quarterly flour milling survey conducted by the Bureau of the Census. Exports in 2000/01 are expected to rise about 50 million bushels or 5 percent from the expected 1999/2000 total, which included substantial donations to needy countries. World trade is projected to increase this year, but the United States will continue to face strong competition. In 1999/2000, prices strengthened in the winter as USDA announced donation programs, but have weakened since February as U.S. production prospects have improved. For 2000/01, a more usual price pattern is expected, with prices reaching their seasonal low during harvest and increasing as the marketing season progresses. The average price received by farmers is projected to range from $2.40 to $2.90 per bushel. The midpoint of $2.65 per bushel is up from the $2.50 per bushel estimated for 1999/2000, but it is much lower than the $3.49 average farmers received for crop years 1990/91 through 1996/97. The price outcome for 2000/01 will depend on the pace of wheat exports, as well as weather developments in the coming months than can affect the wheat and corn crops in 2000. Exports will be affected greatly by how crops around the world turn out. The size of crops in other countries, their use, and ending stocks of the major competing exporters (Argentina, Australia, Canada, and the European Union) are dominant factors in establishing this year's price forecast. The 1999/2000 Balance Sheet Is Revised from Last Month U.S. ending stocks for 1999/2000 are down 5 million bushels from the April forecast because of a 5-million-bushel increase in food use. The food use forecast was increased because the Bureau of the Census' Flour Milling Report [MQ20A(99-01)] for the first calender quarter (January-March) of 2000 indicated a larger than expected increase in wheat grind and flour production (see table 4). As a result, the food use estimates for the third and fourth quarters of the 1999/2000 marketing year have been increased this month. Annual food use in 1999/2000 is now projected at 910 million bushels. The increase reflects a change in the establishments included in the Flour Milling Products report released by the Bureau of the Census earlier this month (see last section of this report). Global Wheat Production and Stocks Forecast To Decline in 2000/01 World wheat production is forecast at 580 million tons in 2000/01, down almost 7 million from the previous year, with foreign production declining 5 million. Drought across North Africa and Iran, and lower support prices that are reducing area in China caused most of the drop in foreign production prospects. A second year of drought is expected to reduce wheat production in North Africa and Iran more than 3 million tons from last year's low levels. In Morocco, Algeria, and Tunisia, favorable planting conditions with good soil moisture were followed by severe drought for most of the rest of the growing season. This more than offset a modest increase in Egypt's forecast production. In Iran, irrigation supplies have been curtailed in order to provide water to urban areas, so both irrigated and dryland wheat are expected to suffer losses. China's 2000/01 wheat production is projected at 107 million tons, down 8 million from a year earlier. Area is forecast down 5 percent because of reduced government support prices and changes in government procurement policies. Winter wheat south of the Yangtze River and low quality spring wheat will not be eligible for government procurement, reducing the incentive to plant. Yields are forecast down slightly because of reduced input use and the wider adoption of varieties that have higher quality but lower yields. Wheat production is projected down a combined 8 million tons in Canada, Kazakstan, and Australia. These countries are in the process of planting wheat because Canada's and Kazakstan's production is mostly spring wheat, while Australia is in the Southern Hemisphere. Area is expected to increase in Canada and Kazakstan while remaining stable in Australia, but none of these countries is likely to repeat the exceptionally high yields reached a year earlier. Increased wheat production in several countries partly offset the declines. EU wheat area is forecast up 6 percent as prices favor wheat instead of rapeseed or barley. EU yields are expected to increase because of generally favorable growing conditions, boosting projected production to a record 106 million tons, up 9 million tons. Generally favorable growing conditions extended into Eastern Europe, boosting forecast production there almost 3 million tons. Russia and Turkey are expected to rebound from drought-reduced yields in 1999/2000. Global wheat consumption in 2000/01 is forecast nearly unchanged from the previous year. Wheat feed use in China is expected to decline as production of low quality wheat is discouraged. Wheat food consumption in China is projected unchanged from the previous year. Therefore, China's total wheat consumption is forecast down 2 million tons based on lower feed wheat use. Feed wheat consumption is also expected down in the former Soviet Union, as cattle numbers continue to decline. Increased wheat feed use in the EU is offsetting. World wheat stocks in 2000/01 are expected to contract sharply for the third straight year. Global production, projected at 580 million tons, is 17 million less than forecast consumption, and stocks in 2000/01 are expected to drop from 126 million tons to a little more than 109 million. The projected stocks are low by historical standards, almost as low as ending stocks in 1995/96, when many wheat prices reached record highs. However, in 2000/01 large supplies in major exporting countries are expected to limit price increases. Larger stocks are expected in the EU because of record production. World Wheat Trade Expected To Expand in 2000/01, U.S. Exports Up Buoyed by strong demand from North Africa and the Middle East, and with a rebound in imports by China, world trade in 2000/01 is forecast at 107 million tons, the highest in 7 years. China is projected to import 2.5 million tons, up from a record low of 0.8 million forecast for 1999/2000. This does not assume China's entry into the WTO, an event with unclear timing. However, there is strong demand for high quality wheat to satisfy urban needs, especially in the southern parts of China. In recent months China has increased imports to meet this demand. Although an increase from the low levels of recent years, the forecast imports are much smaller than in previous decades when China was often the world's largest importer. Although China's production is forecast down significantly in 2000/01, large wheat stocks are expected to limit imports. North Africa is expected to import 17.5 million tons in 2000/01, up 3.6 million from the previous year, and nearly matching the 1997/98 record. Imports are expected to increase in Algeria, Morocco, and Tunisia because of drought-reduced production. Egypt is expected to raise imports despite increased production because of tight stocks. A change in the buying strategy in 1999/2000 reduced imports and likely led to a stock reduction. However, it is expected that further stock reductions will be limited, and imports will have to increase in order to maintain consumption. Iran is expected to remain the world's largest wheat importer in 2000/01, importing 7.5 million tons. A second year of drought will severely tighten supplies. Both production and beginning stocks are expected to be down. Even with a modest increase in imports, consumption is expected to be constrained. Brazil is forecast to import 7.2 million tons, as a small drop in production combines with increasing consumption to boost imports. However, imports in the rest of Latin America are expected to stagnate. U.S. wheat exports in 2000/01 are forecast at 30.5 million tons (July/June), or 1.125 billion bushels (June/May), the highest since 1995/96. However, competition is expected to remain strong. Argentina, Canada, and Australia are projected to export the same combined total as the previous year, with Argentina's exports up 0.5 million tons and Australia's exports reduced by a like amount. Reduced production will likely limit these competitors' exports, but the Countries are expected to reduce stocks in order to maintain shipments. The EU, with record production, is expected to increase exports, and lower support prices and a relatively weak currency could make at least some exports in 2000/01 possible without subsidy. Bureau of the Census Expands Coverage in Flour Milling Survey The Bureau of the Census decided to include in its flour milling surveys integrated pasta manufacturers that operate a durum mill onsite and are producing straight semolina flour or blended semolina durum flour from flour they have milled. In the past these establishments have not been included in Census reports related to establishments classified as "flour milling" establishments. The Bureau of the Census included these plants in the Current Industrial Report Series on Flour Milling for the first time in the MQ311A report for the January-March quarter of 2000. Thus, the volume of durum wheat ground by these establishments or the volume of semolina and durum flour produced in these onsite mills for use in their own pasta plants has been unaccounted for in previous Census Bureau reports focusing on the flour milling industry. An approximation of the under-reporting problem can be measured by comparing data in the report for the first quarter of 2000 with the same period in 1999. The preliminary estimate of the quantity of durum wheat ground for flour in the first quarter of 2000 is 17.46 million bushels. In 1999, the quantity ground was 14.52 million bushels. If the difference of 2.94 million is maintained for the remaining quarters of 2000, the quantity of durum ground by U.S. mills may have been under-reported by as much as 11-12 million bushels in 1999. Comparing semolina production for the same periods indicates that the inclusion of these establishments increased semolina production by 1.31 million cwt, implying an annual rate of under reporting of 5.26 million cwt. This change could potentially add about 2 pounds to annual estimates of per capita flour consumption. --------------------------------------------------------------- Information Contacts: Mack N. Leath (Report Coordinator) (202) 694-5302 Gary Vocke (Domestic) (202) 694-5285 Edward W. Allen (International) (202) 694-5288 Jenny Gonzales (Data Coordinator) (202) 694-5296 Electronic copies available at: --World Wide Web Site www.ers.usda.gov --ERS Autofax system (202) 694-5700 Document Number 12105 NOTICE: ERS Plans to Shift to All-Internet Distribution of Wheat Documents and Data Products in July 2000. Recent data indicate that very few people are obtaining reports and data from the ERS Autofax system. However, maintaining this system is costly to us. As a result, we are planning to phase out Autofax access to the monthly Wheat Outlook report (Autofax Document 12105) as of July 2000. Starting in July, we plan to only provide access to this report through the Internet. You can find this document at http://www.ers.usda.gov in PDF and ASCII formats. Select "Outlook Reports," then "Wheat." It will be available on the same schedule through the Internet as through the Autofax (e.g., at approximately 9:00 a.m. EST on the day of release). The next electronic Wheat Outlook report will be issued on June 13, 2000. The 2000 Wheat Yearbook data tables are available at: 1) ERS Web Site: www.ers.usda.gov/, select "Data Products," then "Field Crops," then "Wheat," then "Wheat Yearbook." 2) ERS Web Site: www.ers.usda.gov/, select "Wheat" Briefing Room, then "Data," then "Wheat Yearbook," and select desired table. The "README.TXT" file contains a list of appendix and text tables by title. 3) ERS AutoFax; Call (202) 694-5700 and select document 12100 for a complete directory of the historical tables (2000 is the last year that the AutoFax tables will be updated). Other wheat articles and publications may be obtained from the ERS "Wheat Briefing Room" at http://www.ers.usda.gov/briefing/wheat. Look in the "Articles and Publications" section. --------------------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Table 1--Wheat: U.S. market year supply and disappearance, 5/16/00 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Item 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00E 2000/01P ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Area: (mil. ac.) National total base 88.5 87.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Eff.base/Contract acres/0,50/92,85 6.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 CRP base retired 10.8 10.6 10.1 9.7 0.0 0.0 Planted 69.0 75.1 70.4 65.8 62.8 61.7 Harvested 61.0 62.8 62.8 59.0 53.9 52.5 Yield: (bu/acre) 35.8 36.3 39.5 43.2 42.7 42.6 Supply: (mil. bu.) Beginning stocks 506.6 376.0 443.6 722.5 945.9 938.4 Production 2,182.7 2,277.4 2,481.5 2,547.3 2,302.4 2,238.8 Imports 1/ 67.9 92.3 94.9 103.0 90.0 95.0 Total supply 2,757.2 2,745.7 3,020.0 3,372.8 3,338.4 3,272.2 Use: Food 882.9 890.7 914.1 907.3 910.0 925.0 Seed 103.5 102.3 92.5 80.7 90.0 85.0 Feed and residual 153.7 307.6 250.5 396.6 325.0 300.0 Total domestic 1,140.1 1,300.6 1,257.1 1,384.5 1,325.0 1,310.0 Exports 1/ 1,241.1 1,001.5 1,040.4 1,042.4 1,075.0 1,125.0 Total use 2,381.2 2,302.1 2,297.5 2,426.9 2,400.0 2,435.0 Ending stocks: 376.0 443.6 722.5 945.9 938.4 837.2 Farmer-owned reserve 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 CCC inventory 2/ 118.0 93.0 94.0 128.0 100.0 95.0 Free stocks 258.0 350.6 628.5 817.9 838.4 742.2 Stocks-to-use ratio 15.8 19.3 31.4 39.0 39.1 34.4 Prices: ($/bu.) Target price 4.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Loan rate 2.58 2.58 2.58 2.58 2.58 2.58 Contract rate 3/ 0.00 0.87 0.63 0.66 0.64 0.59 Avg. farm price 4.55 4.30 3.38 2.65 2.50 2.40-2.90 Contract payments. (mil. dollars) 3/ 100 1,941 1,413 1,972 2,397 2,079 Market value of production (mil. dollars) 9,787 9,782 8,387 6,781 5,756 5,933 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Source: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, WAOB, USDA. Totals may not add due to rounding. E=Estimated, P=Projected, N.A.=not applicable. 1/ Imports and exports include flour and other products expressed in wheat equivalent. 2/ Includes Food Security Reserve. 3/ Deficiency payments prior to 1996/97. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Table 2--Wheat: U.S. market year supply and disappearance, 5/16/00 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1998/99 E HRW HRS SRW White Durum All wheat ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Area: Million acres Planted 32.22 14.80 10.18 4.81 3.81 65.82 Harvested 27.21 14.40 9.06 4.60 3.73 59.00 Bushels per acre Yield: 43.3 33.8 48.9 65.3 37.0 43.2 Supply: Million bushels Beg. stocks 306.7 220.0 80.0 90.0 25.8 722.5 Production 1,179.5 486.4 442.7 300.7 138.1 2,547.3 Imports 2/ 0.9 58.2 0.0 10.5 33.5 103.0 Total 1487.0 764.5 522.7 401.2 197.4 3372.8 Utilization: Food 384.8 230.0 150.0 75.0 67.5 907.3 Seed 34.8 18.2 17.6 6.1 4.0 80.7 Feed and residual 179.4 36.1 114.5 35.0 31.6 396.6 Total domestic 598.9 284.3 282.1 116.1 103.1 1,384.5 Exports 2/ 453.0 247.2 104.6 198.1 39.5 1,042.4 Total 1,051.9 531.5 386.7 314.2 142.6 2,426.9 Ending stocks: 435.1 233.0 136.0 87.0 54.8 945.9 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1999/00 P HRW HRS SRW White Durum All wheat ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Area: Million acres Planted 30.85 14.34 9.13 4.45 4.04 62.81 Harvested 24.45 13.79 8.02 4.09 3.57 53.91 Bushels per acre Yield: 43.1 32.5 56.6 60.4 27.8 42.7 Supply: Million bushels Beg. stocks 435.1 233.0 136.0 87.0 54.8 945.9 Production 1,055.0 447.9 453.4 246.8 99.3 2,302.4 Imports 2/ 1.0 55.0 0.0 6.0 28.0 90.0 Total 1491.1 735.9 589.4 339.8 182.1 3338.4 Utilization: Total domestic 529.2 303.3 302.9 96.1 93.5 1,325.0 Exports 2/ 480.0 225.0 170.0 160.0 40.0 1,075.0 Total 1,009.2 528.3 472.9 256.1 133.5 2,400.0 Ending stocks: 481.9 207.7 116.5 83.7 48.6 938.4 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Source: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, WAOB, USDA. Totals may not add due to rounding. E=Estimated, P=Projected. 1/ ERS estimates of area, yield, and domestic use. 2/ Imports and exports include flour and other products expressed in wheat equivalent. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Table 3--Wheat: Quarterly supply and disappearance (1,000 bu.), 5/16/00 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Market Produc- Imports Supply Food Seed Feed Exports Ending Year tion 1/ 1/ stocks ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Million bushels 1997/98: Jun-Aug 2,481 23 2,948 228 3 352 288 2,076 Sep-Nov --- 23 2,099 239 59 (113) 296 1,619 Dec-Feb --- 24 1,643 219 2 0 255 1,167 Mar-May --- 26 1,192 228 29 11 201 722 Mkt. year 2,481 95 3,020 914 92 251 1,040 722 1998/99 E: Jun-Aug 2,547 24 3,294 226 1 425 257 2,385 Sep-Nov --- 24 2,409 241 55 (74) 292 1,896 Dec-Feb --- 28 1,923 213 1 12 247 1,450 Mar-May --- 27 1,477 228 23 34 247 946 Mkt. year 2,547 103 3,373 907 81 397 1,042 946 1999/00 P: Jun-Aug 2,302 31 3,279 224 6 279 325 2,445 Sep-Nov --- 19 2,465 239 54 (6) 291 1,886 Dec-Feb --- 19 1,905 216 2 37 237 1,412 Mar-May --- 21 1,433 231 27 14 222 938 Mkt. year 2,302 90 3,338 910 90 325 1,075 938 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Totals might not add due to rounding. E=Estimated, P=Projected. 1/ Imports and exports include flour and selected products expressed in wheat equivalent. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Table 4--Monthly food use estimates for last 12 months, (1,000 bu.), 5/16/00 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Item | April May June July August September ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Mill grind + | 75,536 77,233 73,892 73,438 80,263 77,179 Food imports 1/ + | 1,836 1,803 1,927 1,703 1,772 1,576 Non-flour | food use 2/ + | 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 Food exports 1/ - | 3,304 2,107 6,113 5,289 3,932 6,904 Food use* = | 76,068 78,929 71,707 71,852 80,103 73,851 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Item | October November December January February March ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Mill grind + | 84,249 80,639 75,692 72,931 72,352 76,762 Food imports 1/ + | 1,830 1,939 2,066 1,795 1,763 N.A. Non-flour | food use 2/ + | 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 Food exports 1/ - | 4,950 2,607 6,812 3,245 6,409 N.A. Food use* = | 83,129 81,972 72,946 73,481 69,707 N.A. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Census. Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Wheat flour and products converted to wheat grain equivalent. 2/ ERS estimate of cereal use. N/A=not available Table 5--Wheat: Farm prices and prices at selected markets ($/bu.), 5/16/00 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | ---------------------- Farm prices ------------------------- Month | All wheat | Winter | Durum | Other spring | 98/99 99/00 | 98/99 99/00 | 98/99 99/00 | 98/99 99/00 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ June | 2.77 2.50 | 2.68 2.32 | 3.98 2.93 | 3.22 3.01 July | 2.56 2.23 | 2.47 2.13 | 3.39 2.89 | 3.08 2.93 August | 2.38 2.52 | 2.25 2.34 | 3.23 2.74 | 2.69 2.85 September | 2.39 2.57 | 2 29 2.46 | 3.03 2.30 | 2.62 2.86 October | 2.77 2.58 | 2.66 2.47 | 3.04 2.17 | 3.04 2.80 November | 2.95 2.66 | 2.76 2.42 | 3.08 2.62 | 3.23 2.95 December | 2.86 2.52 | 2.68 2.27 | 3.05 2.96 | 3.19 2.87 January | 2.84 2.50 | 2.70 2.32 | 3.20 2.89 | 3.12 2.80 February | 2.73 2.54 | 2.55 2.37 | 2.84 2.89 | 3.09 2.82 March | 2.65 2.59 | 2.53 2.38 | 2.82 2.62 | 3.00 2.85 April 1/ | 2.62 2.55 | 2.48 2.29 | 2.80 2.73 | 2.95 2.86 May | 2.49 . | 2.34 . | 2.84 . | 2.92 . ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | KC HRW #1 | KC HRW #1 | Minneapolis | Minneapolis Month | ordinary | 13% protein | DNS 14% prot. | #1 HAD milling | 98/99 99/00 | 98/99 99/00 | 98/99 99/00 | 98/99 99/00 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ June | 3.16 2.93 | 3.57 3.22 | 4.01 3.73 | 5.00 N/Q July | 3.02 2.68 | 3.57 3.39 | 3.89 3.68 | 4.59 3.92 August | 2.74 2.85 | 3.12 3.42 | 3.58 3.58 | 4.20 3.73 September | 2.81 2.92 | 3.17 3.52 | 3.53 3.55 | 3.78 4.14 October | 3.30 2.80 | 3.67 3.40 | 4.03 3.70 | 4.04 4.46 November | 3.42 2.89 | 3.89 3.54 | 4.15 3.78 | 4.15 4.80 December | 3.31 2.81 | 3.74 3.44 | 3.97 3.64 | 4.05 N/Q January | 3.27 2.90 | 3.61 3.46 | 3.92 3.37 | 3.91 N/Q February | 3.05 2.94 | 3.35 3.37 | 3.78 3.59 | 3.67 4.40 March | 3.02 2.91 | 3.34 3.29 | 3.79 3.65 | 3.65 N/Q April | 2.94 2.84 | 3.34 3.30 | 3.65 3.69 | 3.61 4.11 May | 2.89 . | 3.28 . | 3.61 . | N/Q . ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | St. Louis | Portland | Portland | FOB Gulf Month | #2 SRW | #1 soft white | #1 HRW Ord. | $/ton (HRW) | 98/99 99/00 | 98/99 99/00 | 98/99 99/00 | 98/99 99/00 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- June | 2.66 2.31 | 2.93 3.17 | 3.37 3.10 | 120.52 110.60 July | 2.43 N.A. | 2.72 3.06 | 3.04 2.83 | 117.95 101.04 August | 2.26 2.22 | 2.66 3.14 | 2.93 3.00 | 108.76 109.86 September | 2.12 2.48 | 2.69 3.25 | 3.06 3.12 | 108.03 113.17 October | 2.23 2.31 | 3.15 3.24 | 3.56 2.97 | 126.03 107.29 November | 2.41 2.50 | 3.15 3.09 | 3.66 2.98 | 131.18 108.76 December | 2.54 2.26 | 3.12 2.83 | 3.62 2.84 | 126.40 102.88 January | 2.51 2.38 | 3.15 2.91 | 3.58 2.95 | 125.30 106.19 February | 2.33 2.51 | 3.10 2.88 | 3.36 3.01 | 116.48 109.86 March | 2.44 2.40 | 3.22 2.84 | 3.43 2.95 | 117.95 107.29 April | 2.44 2.38 | 3.23 2.89 | 3.31 2.93 | 113.90 107.29 May | 2.45 . | 3.17 . | 3.11 . | 112.07 . ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Mid-month price for current month of the 1999/00 marketing year. N.A.-not available. N/Q-no quote. Source: NASS & AMS, USDA. Table 6--Wheat: U.S. exports and imports for last 6 months, 5/16/00 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Exports, (1,000 bu.) 1999/2000 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Item 1/ | September October November December January February ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Wheat grain | 91,438 96,154 89,211 84,460 71,763 64,198 Wheat flour | 6,503 4,576 2,332 6,566 2,924 6,108 Products | 401 374 283 246 322 302 Total | 98,343 101,105 91,826 91,272 75,010 70,608 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Imports, (1,000 bu.) 1999/2000 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Item 1/ | September October November December January February -------------|--------------------------------------------------------------- Wheat grain | 4,839 4,570 4,712 4,711 3,273 5,823 Wheat flour | 537 556 634 636 561 577 Products | 1,041 1,275 1,308 1,433 1,235 1,191 Total | 6,418 6,402 6,655 6,779 5,069 7,591 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Census. 1/ Wheat flour and products converted to wheat grain equivalent. Totals may not add due to rounding. Monthly and quarterly estimates since 1995/96 are available in ERS AutoFax Document 12181, and electronically at www.ers.usda.gov/briefing/wheat/data. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Table 7--Wheat: U.S. exports, Census and Export Sales comparison, 5/16/00 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | 1997/98 | 1998/99 | 1999/2000 (as of 5/04/00) Importing |-----------------------------------|-------------------------- country | | Ship- |Outstanding| Total | Shipments | ments | sales | ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Data | | Export | | Export | Export Source | Census | sales | Census | sales | Sales ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | --1,000 metric tons-- Country: | Egypt | 4,837 | 4,982 | 4,516 | 4,397 | 3,975 378 4,353 EU | 1,302 | 1,298 | 1,421 | 1,407 | 1,210 207 1,417 Israel | 830 | 786 | 716 | 734 | 813 96 909 Japan | 3,169 | 3,373 | 3,076 | 3,201 | 2,829 392 3,221 S. Korea | 1,446 | 1,400 | 1,534 | 1,366 | 1,359 248 1,607 Mexico | 1,156 | 1,151 | 1,734 | 1,860 | 1,900 51 1,951 Nigeria | 730 | 817 | 1,238 | 1,300 | 1,119 120 1,239 Pakistan | 2,180 | 2,232 | 867 | 844 | 401 0 401 Philippines | 1,458 | 1,531 | 1,682 | 1,749 | 1,993 254 2,247 Taiwan | 1,003 | 975 | 889 | 920 | 923 147 1,070 Total grain | 27,295 | 27,518 | 27,202 | 25,555 | 23,681 2,617 26,298 Total(incl) | | | | | 44 8 52 products) | 28,308 | 27,626 | 28,359 | 25,648 | 21,725 3,225 26,350 USDA forecast | | | | | of Census | | | | | 29,257 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/Export sales and shipments from USDA's weekly U.S. Export Sales report. END_OF_FILE