WHEAT OUTLOOK July 14, 2000 July 2000, WHS-0700 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WHEAT OUTLOOK is issued 11 times a year by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. Electronic release only; no published copies are available. WHEAT OUTLOOK is supplemented by an annual WHEAT YEARBOOK. The yearbook summary for 2000 was released on March 27, 2000. Yearbooks are available in print from ERS-NASS Order Desk. For the 2000 issue, call 1-800-999-6779 (703-605-6220) and ask for stock #ERS-WHS-2000, $21. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Highlights -- Larger U.S. Wheat Production Prospects for 2000 -- Prices To Remain Under Pressure as Harvest Progresses -- Preliminary Data Show Protein Up and Test Weight Down in Kansas -- Domestic Use Is Projected Down in 2000/01 as Feed and Residual Use Declines -- Wheat by Class -- Foreign Production Forecast for 2000/01 Boosted Almost 5 Million Tons -- Global Stocks Projection Up, Consumption Prospects Slip -- U.S. Wheat Export Prospects Dimmed by Increased Competition Larger U.S. Wheat Production Prospects for 2000 Total U.S. production is forecast at 2,243 million bushels, up 31 million from last month but down 60 million bushels from 1999. The July production estimate was slightly above the average of pre-release trade guesses. Reported beginning stocks for 2000/01 are up 33 million bushels from the June projection, and they are 4 million above a year earlier. The larger beginning stocks and this month's increase in production raise the U.S. wheat supply for 2000/01 to 3,293 million bushels, only 49 million bushels below last year's burdensome level. U.S. winter wheat production prospects for 2000 have declined since the June forecast because of lower yield prospects in the U.S. hard red winter (HRW) production regions. The yield forecast of 44.9 bushels per acre for winter wheat is almost 3 bushels below the record established in 1999. Prices To Remain Under Pressure as Harvest Progresses Wheat prices have been under significant pressure since the 1996/97 marketing year due to large crops, relatively weak export demand, and rising carryover stocks. Stocks have rebounded rapidly from the record low of 376 million bushels on June 1, 1996. Even though 2000 production is projected down from last year, the large supplies will keep pressuring cash and futures prices during the harvest season. Projected U.S. exports in 2000/01 are expected to increase only 10 million bushels from 1999/2000 because competition in the world market will continue to be keen. As a result, the U.S. season average farm price is projected at $2.25-$2.75, down 15 cents on both ends of the range from last month's projection. Farm prices are expected to follow a more normal seasonal pattern in 2000/01, hitting seasonal lows during harvest (June through September), then increasing to reflect carrying charges. The preliminary U.S. farm price for all wheat in June 2000 is $2.52 per bushel, up 2 cents from June 1999. In coming months, the wheat price will not only be influenced by large U.S. and global wheat supplies but also by weather patterns in the Corn Belt States that affect the corn and soybean crops. Preliminary Data Show Protein Up and Test Weight Down in Kansas Preliminary data released on July 6 by the Kansas Department of Agriculture indicate that protein is up and test weight is down from last year's crop. The July 6 report was the third in a series of wheat quality press releases to be made during the 2000 wheat harvest in Kansas. The early estimates are based on data from 4,349 carlot samples from 56 counties that were tested by the Kansas Grain Inspection Service, Inc. The samples were tested for protein content, test weight, and other grade determining factors. Test weight averaged 59.9 pounds per bushel, down from last year's average of 60.2 pounds, while the 10-year average from 1989-1998 is 60.0 pounds. Protein is averaging 11.9 percent, up from 11.5 percent for 1999 and the 10-year average of 11.7 percent. If the milling quality is good, the higher protein content of this year's crop is good news for the flour milling industry. Samples of wheat grading U.S. No. 1, at 48 percent, are below the 61 percent of last year. Forty-six percent graded U.S. No. 2, compared with 34 percent in 1999. Only 6 percent of the samples graded U.S. No. 3 or below. Average dockage content of all samples is 0.6 percent, unchanged from 1999. Ninety-one percent of all samples graded had a dockage content less than 0.9 percent, compared with 90 percent last year. The data are summarized by the Kansas Agricultural Statistics Service. The Kansas Wheat Commission funded the collection and publication of the data. The reports are available electronically at: http://www.nass.usda.gov/ks/ whtqual.htm. Additional tests to determine milling quality will be made by the Kansas State University Department of Grain Science and Industry, and the results will be published later in the 2000 Wheat Quality Bulletin. Domestic Use Is Projected Down in 2000/01 as Feed and Residual Use Declines Domestic feed and residual use is projected down 50 million bushels to 225 million this month as lower corn prices make wheat feeding less attractive. Food use in 2000/01 is unchanged this month and is projected up 15 million bushels from the preliminary estimate for the 1999/2000 marketing year. Exports for 2000/01 are projected down 25 million bushels and are only above 1999/2000 as competition for export markets is expected to be intense. Ending stocks are projected up 138 million bushels this month and are only 3 million bushels below the 1999/2000 level, which was the highest carryover since 1987/88. Wheat by Class Hard Red Winter Wheat--Hard red winter (HRW) wheat production prospects declined during June, especially in Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma, and Texas. The yield forecast for Colorado has declined 10 bushels since June 1, and production is forecast down 33 million bushels from last year. Kansas production is pegged at 363 million bushels in 2000, down 24 million from June and 70 million below 1999. The Kansas yield is forecast at 39 bushels per acre, down 3 bushels from the June forecast and 8 bushels below the State record of 49 bushel established in 1998. Based on July 1 conditions, yield in Nebraska is projected down 4 bushels per acre from June, and 10 bushels below last year's record of 48 bushels. Forecast yield in Oklahoma dropped 3 bushels since June 1. Texas yield is projected at 29 bushels, down 2 bushels from last month and 7 bushels from last year's record. Total HRW output is forecast at 887 million bushels, 57 million below the June forecast and down about 168 million from 1999. HRW use is projected to total 984 million bushels in 2000/01, accounting for about 42 percent of total U.S. wheat use. The harvest in the central plains States has progressed rapidly as dry conditions advanced crop maturity. As of July 9, the Kansas harvest was 99 percent completed, compared with a 5-year average of 75 percent. Harvest in Nebraska was 71 percent complete compared with an average of 19 percent. The harvest in Colorado was 77 percent complete, 48 percentage points above the 5-year average for that date. Drought conditions and heat have pushed Montana's winter wheat crop progress far ahead of schedule, and 87 percent of the crop is turning color, compared with a 5-year average of 30 percent. The Montana Agricultural Statistics Service reports that the mild winter and early drought conditions led to an unusually large number of immature grasshoppers in Montana rangeland. As the grasshoppers mature and move onto cropland, producers may find the pest in great numbers. These pests will prove to be an even greater threat to spring sown small grains. Soft Red Winter Wheat--Soft red winter (SRW) wheat production is forecast at 467 million bushels in 2000, up 18 million bushels from last month and 14 million above last year. SRW production is forecast to account for about 21 percent of the U.S. wheat crop in 2000. Total use is projected at 458 million bushels in 2000/01, about 20 percent of total wheat use. White Winter Wheat--White winter (WW) wheat production is pegged at 235 million bushels, up 5 million bushels from last month and 23 percent above the drought reduced output in 1999. Washington, Oregon, Idaho, and Michigan account for most of WW production. Compared with last year, yield in Michigan is forecast down 2 bushels in 2000 while yields in the Pacific Northwest will be up dramatically, particularly in Washington (up 11 bushels) where drought conditions took a toll on yield in 1999. Record yields are forecast for Idaho. Other Spring Wheat--Based on July 1 conditions, the "other spring" wheat (i.e., excluding durum) crop is forecast at 526 million bushels in 2000, up from 1999 because of an increase in harvested area and yield. Production of white spring (WS) wheat in 2000 is virtually unchanged from last year. The June 30 Acreage report indicated that planted acreage of "other spring" wheat is up 5 percent from the March intentions and 1 percent above last year. Farmers will harvest about 15.1 million acres in 2000. The first survey-based forecast for the 2000 crop indicated an average yield of 34.9 bushels per acre for other spring wheat. The other spring wheat crop is larger than earlier expectations, which were based on historical yields and acreage reported in the March Prospective Plantings report. As of July 9, 78 percent of the spring wheat crop was headed, compared with a 5-year average of 60 percent. In the six major spring wheat States, 64 percent of the crop was rated good to excellent as of July 9, 3 percentage points above the same date last year. However, excessive rainfall in many areas of Minnesota and North Dakota may increase disease problems in the 2000 spring wheat crop. Durum Wheat--According to the June 30 Acreage report, farmers had either planted or intended to plant 4.05 million acres of durum wheat this spring and planned to harvest 3.986 million acres. Area planted is about the same as last year but is significantly higher than the March planting intentions. As of July 9, 74 percent of the North Dakota durum crop was rated good to excellent. Based on July 1 conditions, production of durum wheat in the United States is forecast to total 128 million bushels, up 29 percent from 1999. This reflects a forecast national yield of 32.2 bushels per acre, a 4.4-bushel increase from last year. The forecast production level will expand ending stocks to a projected 77 million bushels, 54 percent above stocks on June 1, 2000. The larger stocks in the absence of any prospects for expanded exports will put pressure on durum prices during the 2000/01 marketing year. Foreign Production Forecast for 2000/01 Boosted Almost 5 Million Tons During June and early July harvest of winter wheat in the Northern Hemisphere progressed rapidly, and planting of spring wheat and Southern Hemisphere wheats neared completion. Much additional information on production prospects is available this month. The forecast for world wheat production is increased nearly 5 million tons this month, reflecting higher harvested area and yield prospects across a broad range of countries. These increases more than offset reduced prospects in China and Ukraine. India and Pakistan's governments announced larger-than-expected record wheat crops. India produced 74 million tons of wheat, up 3 million from last month's forecast, and increased yields were confirmed by large government procurement. Similarly, record production in Pakistan increased 1 million from last month, to 21 million tons. Dryness during the growing season across the region did not prevent record yields because much of the crop is irrigated. Canada's production forecast increased 1.5 million tons this month as Canadian government surveys indicated increased area planted. Total wheat area is up 6 percent from a year earlier, but durum area reportedly increased 47 percent while hard red spring declined. There have been significant price premiums for good quality durum wheat for the past several years. Brazil and Argentina reported larger area planted, with mostly favorable weather for harvesting summer crops and seeding wheat. Brazil's forecast production increased 0.1 million tons, while Argentina's production was boosted by 0.5 million this month. EU wheat production is forecast up more than 1 million tons this month to a record 107 million, because good yields on the Iberian Peninsula are boosting Spain's production. Reduced area in Germany is offset by larger-than-expected production in Austria, despite severe drought. Production prospects in the former Soviet Union increased slightly more than 1 million tons this month, with drought- reduced crops in Ukraine (down 1 million tons) and Moldova more than offset by increased yield prospects in Russia (up 1 million), Uzbekistan (up 1 million), and Turkmenistan. Dry conditions from eastern Germany to Ukraine caused further reductions to wheat production in Eastern Europe this month, particularly Romania. Sharp reductions were made in production prospects last month, but additional adjustments are being made as harvest reports come in. While wheat crops were revised down modestly in the Czech Republic and former Yugoslavia, Romania's wheat crop is reportedly damaged significantly more than its neighbors, and production is forecast down 1.2 million tons from a month ago. China's wheat production forecast dropped 2 million tons this month because of reduced spring wheat area. Spring wheat prices will not be supported by the government, reducing the incentive to plant. Spring wheat in China is generally of low quality, and the government has stated that it will no longer procure the low quality wheat. Although forecast 2000/01 world wheat production of 581 million tons is up from a month ago, it is down about 1 percent from the previous year, and remains less than projected global consumption of 594 million. Global Stocks Projection Up, Consumption Prospects Slip World wheat consumption is forecast lower this month, but foreign consumption is nearly unchanged. Reduced production prospects contributed to lower consumption forecasts this month for China and Eastern Europe (each down about 1 million tons). Consumption is forecast down slightly this month in the former Soviet Union because lower expected consumption in Ukraine and Moldova (where production is lower) more than offsets consumption increases in the rest of the region. Meanwhile, increased production in Russia and Uzbekistan is contributing to increased stocks. Increased production prospects are expected to boost consumption slightly in India, Argentina, and the EU; but most countries with increased production forecasts are expected to augment stocks. World wheat stocks are projected to reach 114 million tons, up nearly 8 million from a month ago. Foreign stocks account for about half of the increase. Stocks in South Asia are up almost 3 million tons this month with the largest increase in India, although stocks are also up in Pakistan and Bangladesh. Stocks are projected up more than 1 million tons in the former Soviet Union, mostly Russia. Increased stocks are forecast this month for Canada, Argentina, and other countries with increased forecast production. Even though foreign stocks in 2000/01 are forecast up this month, they are still down more than 12 million tons from the previous year, and are the smallest since 1981/82. Since 1981/82, however, foreign wheat consumption has increased an estimated 33 percent, so the stocks-to-use ratio is much tighter. U.S. Wheat Export Prospects Dimmed by Increased Competition U.S. wheat exports in 2000/01 (July/June) are forecast at 30.5 million tons (1.1 billion bushels June/May), down 0.5 million from a month ago. Increased competition, especially from Canada, and slightly reduced world wheat trade, account for the reduction. World trade is forecast 0.5 million tons less than a month ago because reduced imports for Pakistan and Uzbekistan more than offset increased shipments expected to the Philippines. However, at 106 million tons (July/June excluding intra-EU trade), global wheat trade is still expected to be up from the previous year and the largest since 1992/93. Competition among exporters is expected to be fierce in 2000/01, with a record EU crop, near-record crops in Canada, Argentina, and Australia, and large U.S. stocks. This month's forecast export changes include: Canada up 1 million tons because of a larger crop; Australia down 0.5 million on the July/June international year because of lower import prospects by Pakistan; and Ukraine down 0.5 million because of reduced production. Canada is expected to compete aggressively in many U.S. markets, reducing prospects for U.S. exports. ============================================================ Information Contacts: Mack N. Leath (Report Coordinator) (202) 694-5302 Gary Vocke (Domestic) (202) 694-5285 Edward W. Allen (International) (202) 694-5288 Jenny Gonzales (Data Coordinator) (202) 694-5296 Diane Decker (Editor) (202) 694-5116 Electronic copies available at the ERS World Wide Web Site: www.ers.usda.gov The next electronic Wheat Outlook report will be issued on August 15, 2000. The 2000 Wheat Yearbook data tables are available at: 1) ERS Web Site: www.ers.usda.gov/, select "Data Products," then "Field Crops," then "Wheat," then "Wheat Yearbook." 2) ERS Web Site: www.ers.usda.gov/, select "Wheat" Briefing Room, then "Data," then "Wheat Yearbook," and select desired table. The "README.TXT" file contains a list of appendix and text tables by title. 3) ERS Autofax: call (202) 694-5700 and select document 12100 for a complete directory of the historical tables (2000 is the last year that the Autofax tables will be updated). Other wheat articles and publications may be obtained from the ERS "Wheat Briefing Room" at http:// www.ers.usda.gov/briefing/wheat. Look in the "Articles and Publications" section. Notice to Readers: Diane Decker, editor of the Wheat Outlook report and Wheat Yearbook, will be leaving ERS at the end of this month. A reception honoring Diane's many years of service will be held on Wednesday, July 26 at 1800 M Street, NW, 2nd floor conference room at 2:00 p.m. Please drop by and wish her well if you are in Washington, D.C. that day. Mack Leath, Report Coordinator ===========================================================Table 1--Wheat: U.S. market year supply and disappearance, 7/14/00 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Item 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00E 2000/01P ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Million acres Area: National total base 88.5 87.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Eff. base/Ctr. acres/ 0,50/92,85 6.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 CRP base retired 10.8 10.6 10.1 9.7 0.0 0.0 Planted 69.0 75.1 70.4 65.8 62.8 62.9 Harvested 61.0 62.8 62.8 59.0 53.9 54.4 Bushels per acre Yield: 35.8 36.3 39.5 43.2 42.7 41.2 Million bushels Supply: Beginning stocks 506.6 376.0 443.6 722.5 945.9 950.1 Production 2,182.7 2,277.4 2,481.5 2,547.3 2,302.4 2,242.6 Imports 1/ 67.9 92.3 94.9 103.0 94.0 100.0 Total supply 2,757.2 2,745.7 3,020.0 3,372.8 3,342.4 3,292.7 Use: Food 882.9 890.7 914.1 908.1 920.0 935.0 Seed 103.5 102.3 92.5 80.7 92.3 86.0 Feed and residual 153.7 307.6 250.5 395.9 290.0 225.0 Total domestic 1,140.1 1,300.6 1,257.1 1,384.7 1,302.3 1,246.0 Exports 1/ 1,241.1 1,001.5 1,040.4 1,042.2 1,090.0 1,100.0 Total use 2,381.2 2,302.1 2,297.5 2,426.9 2,392.3 2,346.0 Ending stocks: 376.0 443.6 722.5 945.9 950.1 946.7 Farmer-owned reserve 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 CCC inventory 2/ 118.0 93.0 94.0 128.0 104.0 95.0 Free stocks 258.0 350.6 628.5 817.9 846.1 851.7 Stocks-to-use ratio 15.8 19.3 31.4 39.0 39.7 40.4 Dollars per bushel Prices: Target price 4.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Loan rate 2.58 2.58 2.58 2.58 2.58 2.58 Contract rate 3/ 0.00 0.87 0.63 0.66 0.64 0.59 Ave. farm price 4.55 4.30 3.38 2.65 2.50 2.25-2.75 Million dollars Contract payments 3/ 100 1,941 1,413 1,972 2,393 2,243 Market value of production 9,787 9,782 8,287 6,781 5,756 5,606 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Source: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, WAOB, USDA. Totals may not add due to rounding. E=Estimated, P=Projected, N.A.=not applicable. 1/ Imports and exports include flour and other products expressed in wheat equivalent. 2/ Includes Food Security Reserve. 3/ Deficiency payments prior to 1996/97. Table 2--Wheat: U.S. market year supply and disappearance, 7/14/00 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1999/00E HRW HRS SRW White Durum All wheat ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Million acres Area: Planted 30.85 14.34 9.13 4.45 4.04 62.81 Harvested 24.45 13.79 8.02 4.09 3.57 53.91 Bushels per acre Yield: 43.15 32.49 56.55 60.39 27.83 42.71 Million bushels Supply: Beg. stocks 435.1 233.0 136.0 87.0 54.8 945.9 Production 1,055.0 447.9 453.4 246.8 99.3 2,302.4 Imports 2/ 1.0 59.0 0.0 6.0 28.0 94.0 Total 1,491.1 739.9 589.4 339.8 182.1 3,342.4 Utilization: Food 380.0 240.0 155.0 75.0 70.0 920.0 Seed 34.2 24.8 18.2 6.0 9.0 92.3 Feed and residual 130.5 27.1 111.2 7.8 13.5 290.0 Total domestic 544.7 291.9 284.4 88.8 92.5 1,302.3 Exports 2/ 490.0 230.0 170.0 160.0 40.0 1,090.0 Total 1,034.7 521.9 454.4 248.8 132.5 2,392.3 Ending stocks: 456.4 218.0 135.0 91.0 49.6 950.1 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 2000/01P HRW HRS SRW White Durum All wheat ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Million acres Area: Planted 30.44 14.61 9.46 4.39 4.05 62.95 Harvested 23.91 14.14 8.18 4.23 3.99 54.45 Bushels per acre Yield: 37.09 33.25 57.10 68.70 32.15 41.19 Million bushels Supply: Beg. stocks 456.4 218.0 135.0 91.0 49.6 950.1 Production 886.8 470.3 466.9 290.5 128.2 2,242.6 Imports 2/ 1.0 62.0 0.0 7.0 30.0 100.0 Total 1,344.2 750.3 601.9 388.5 207.8 3,292.7 Utilization: Total domestic 514.0 277.0 268.0 96.0 91.0 1,246.0 Exports 2/ 470.0 230.0 190.0 170.0 40.0 1,100.0 Total 984.0 507.0 458.0 266.0 131.0 2,346.0 Ending stocks: 360.2 243.3 143.9 122.5 76.8 946.7 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Source: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, WAOB, USDA. Totals may not add due to rounding. E=Estimated, P=Projected. 1/ ERS estimates of area, yield, and domestic use. 2/ Imports and exports include flour and other products expressed in wheat equivalent. Table 3--Wheat: Quarterly supply and disappearance (1,000 bu.), 7/14/00 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Market Produc- Imports Supply Food Seed Feed Exports Ending Year tion 1/ 1/ stocks ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Million bushels 1997/98 E: Jun-Aug 2,481 23 2,948 228 3 352 288 2,076 Sep-Nov --- 23 2,099 239 59 (113) 296 1,619 Dec-Feb --- 24 1,643 219 2 0 255 1,167 Mar-May --- 26 1,192 228 29 11 201 722 Mktg. year 2,481 95 3,020 914 92 251 1,040 722 1998/99 P: Jun-Aug 2,547 24 3,294 226 1 425 257 2,385 Sep-Nov --- 24 2,409 241 55 (74) 292 1,896 Dec-Feb --- 28 1,923 213 1 12 247 1,450 Mar-May --- 27 1,477 229 23 33 246 946 Mktg. year 2,547 103 3,373 908 81 396 1,042 946 1999/00 P: Jun-Aug 2,302 31 3,279 228 6 276 324 2,445 Sep-Nov --- 19 2,465 239 55 (6) 291 1,886 Dec-Feb --- 19 1,905 220 2 32 236 1,415 Mar-May --- 25 1,440 233 29 (12) 239 950 Mktg. year 2,302 94 3,342 920 92 290 1,090 950 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Totals might not add due to rounding. E=Estimated, P=Projected. 1/ Imports and exports include flour and selected products expressed in wheat equivalent. Table 4--Monthly food use estimates for last 12 months, (1,000 bu.), 7/14/00 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Item | May June July August September October ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Mill grind + | 77,233 73,892 73,438 80,263 77,179 84,249 Food imports 1/ + | 1,803 1,927 1,703 1,772 1,576 1,830 Non-flour | food use 2/ + | 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 Food exports 1/ - | 2,107 4,373 3,842 2,846 6,904 4,950 Food use = | 78,929 73,446 73,300 81,189 73,851 83,129 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Item | November December January February March April ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Mill grind + | 80,639 75,692 72,931 72,352 76,762 N/A Food imports 1/ + | 1,939 2,066 1,795 1,763 2,098 1,643 Non-flour | food use 2/ + | 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 Food exports 1/ - | 2,607 3,269 3,245 6,409 2,807 3,443 Food use = | 81,972 76,490 73,481 69,707 78,053 N/A ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Census. Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Wheat flour and products converted to wheat grain equivalent. 2/ ERS estimate of cereal use. N/A=not available. Note: Monthly and quarterly food use estimates since 1999/91 are available electronically at www.ers.usda.gov/briefing/wheat/data. Table 5--Wheat: Farm prices and prices at selected markets ($/bu.), 7/14/00 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | ---------------------- Farm prices ------------------------- Month | All wheat | Winter | Durum | Other spring | 98/99 99/00 | 98/99 99/00 | 98/99 99/00 | 98/99 99/00 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ June 1/ | 2.50 2.52 | 2.32 2.42 | 2.93 3.23 | 3.01 2.88 July | 2.23 . | 2.13 . | 2.89 . | 2.93 . August | 2.52 . | 2.34 . | 2.74 . | 2.85 . September | 2.57 . | 2 46 . | 2.30 . | 2.86 . October | 2.58 . | 2.47 . | 2.17 . | 2.80 . November | 2.66 . | 2.42 . | 2.62 . | 2.95 . December | 2.52 . | 2.27 . | 2.96 . | 2.87 . January | 2.50 . | 2.32 . | 2.89 . | 2.80 . February | 2.54 . | 2.37 . | 2.89 . | 2.82 . March | 2.59 . | 2.38 . | 2.62 . | 2.85 . April | 2.57 . | 2.32 . | 2.89 . | 2.89 . May | 2.59 . | 2.44 . | 2.98 . | 2.92 . ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | KC HRW #1 | KC HRW #1 | Minneapolis | Minneapolis Month | ordinary | 13% protein | DNS 14% prot. | #1 HAD milling | 98/99 99/00 | 98/99 99/00 | 98/99 99/00 | 98/99 99/00 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ June | 3.16 2.93 | 3.57 3.22 | 4.01 3.73 | 5.00 N/Q July | 3.02 2.68 | 3.57 3.39 | 3.89 3.68 | 4.59 3.92 August | 2.74 2.85 | 3.12 3.42 | 3.58 3.58 | 4.20 3.73 September | 2.81 2.92 | 3.17 3.52 | 3.53 3.55 | 3.78 4.14 October | 3.30 2.80 | 3.67 3.40 | 4.03 3.70 | 4.04 4.46 November | 3.42 2.89 | 3.89 3.54 | 4.15 3.78 | 4.15 4.80 December | 3.31 2.81 | 3.74 3.44 | 3.97 3.64 | 4.05 N/Q January | 3.27 2.90 | 3.61 3.46 | 3.92 3.37 | 3.91 N/Q February | 3.05 2.94 | 3.35 3.37 | 3.78 3.59 | 3.67 4.40 March | 3.02 2.91 | 3.34 3.29 | 3.79 3.65 | 3.65 N/Q April | 2.94 2.84 | 3.34 3.30 | 3.65 3.69 | 3.61 4.11 May | 2.89 2.95 | 3.28 3.52 | 3.61 3.80 | N/Q 4.25 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | St. Louis | Portland | Portland | FOB Gulf Month | #2 SRW | #1 soft white | #1 HRW Ord. | $/ton (HRW) | 98/99 99/00 | 98/99 99/00 | 98/99 99/00 | 98/99 99/00 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- June | 2.66 2.31 | 2.93 3.17 | 3.37 3.10 | 120.52 110.60 July | 2.43 N.A. | 2.72 3.06 | 3.04 2.83 | 117.95 101.04 August | 2.26 2.22 | 2.66 3.14 | 2.93 3.00 | 108.76 109.86 September | 2.12 2.48 | 2.69 3.25 | 3.06 3.12 | 108.03 113.17 October | 2.23 2.31 | 3.15 3.24 | 3.56 2.97 | 126.03 107.29 November | 2.41 2.50 | 3.15 3.09 | 3.66 2.98 | 131.18 108.76 December | 2.54 2.26 | 3.12 2.83 | 3.62 2.84 | 126.40 102.88 January | 2.51 2.38 | 3.15 2.91 | 3.58 2.95 | 125.30 106.19 February | 2.33 2.51 | 3.10 2.88 | 3.36 3.01 | 116.48 109.86 March | 2.44 2.40 | 3.22 2.84 | 3.43 2.95 | 117.95 107.29 April | 2.44 2.38 | 3.23 2.89 | 3.31 2.93 | 113.90 107.29 May | 2.45 2.56 | 3.17 2.97 | 3.11 3.07 | 112.07 111.33 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Mid-month price for current month of the 1999/00 marketing year. N.A.-not available. N/Q-no quote. Source: NASS & AMS, USDA. Table 6--Wheat: U.S. exports and imports for last 6 months, 7/14/00 1/ ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Exports, (1,000 bu.) 1999/2000 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Item 1/ | November December January February March April ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Wheat grain | 89,211 87,054 71,763 64,198 68,836 73,815 Wheat flour | 2,332 3,023 2,924 6,108 2,615 3,193 Products | 283 246 322 302 287 250 Total | 91,826 90,323 75,010 70,608 71,738 77,258 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Imports, (1,000 bu.) 1999/2000 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Item 1/ | November December January February March April -------------|--------------------------------------------------------------- Wheat grain | 4,712 4,711 3,273 5,823 6,550 6,623 Wheat flour | 634 636 561 577 634 535 Products | 1,308 1,433 1,235 1,191 1,470 1,108 Total | 6,655 6,779 5,069 7,591 8,653 8,267 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Census. 1/ Wheat flour and products converted to wheat grain equivalent. Totals may not add due to rounding. Note: Monthly and quarterly estimates since 1995/96 are available electronically at www.ers.usda.gov/briefing/wheat/data. Table 7--Wheat: U.S. exports, Census and Export Sales comparison, 7/14/00 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | 1998/99 | 1999/2000 | 2000/01 (as of 7/06/00) Importing |-----------------------------------|-------------------------- country | | Ship- |Outstanding| Total | Shipments | ments | sales | ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Data | | Export | | Export | Export Source | Census | sales | Census | sales | Sales ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | 1,000 metric tons Country: | Egypt | 4,516 | 4,516 | N.A. | 4,168 | 646 559 1,204 Japan | 3,076 | 3,201 | N.A. | 3,122 | 129 367 496 Philippines | 1,682 | 1,749 | N.A. | 2,175 | 208 258 466 Mexico | 1,734 | 1,860 | N.A. | 1,963 | 162 209 371 S. Korea | 1,534 | 1,366 | N.A. | 1,475 | 161 240 401 EU | 1,421 | 1,407 | N.A. | 1,300 | 138 210 348 Nigeria | 1,238 | 1,300 | N.A. | 1,300 | 144 222 366 Taiwan | 889 | 920 | N.A. | 1,005 | 158 110 268 Israel | 716 | 734 | N.A. | 917 | 74 65 139 Colombia | 535 | 509 | N.A. | 726 | 75 57 132 Total grain | 27,202 | 25,555 | N.A. | 25,453 | 2,425 3,233 5,658 Total(incl) | | | | | products) | 28,359 | 25,648 | N.A. | 25,500 | 2,428 3,240 26,342 USDA forecast | | | | | of Census | | | 29,665 | | 29,937 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/Export sales and shipments from USDA's weekly U.S. Export Sales report. N.A. - not available. END_OF_FILE