WHEAT OUTLOOK August 15, 2000 August 2000, WHS-0800 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ WHEAT OUTLOOK is issued 11 times a year by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. Electronic release only; no published copies are available. WHEAT OUTLOOK is supplemented by an annual WHEAT YEARBOOK. The yearbook summary for 2000 was released on March 27, 2000. Yearbooks are available in print from ERS-NASS Order Desk. For the 2000 issue, call 1-800-999-6779 (703- 605-6220) and ask for stock #ERS-WHS-2000, $21. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Highlights -- U.S. Wheat Production Forecast for 2000 Increased Again -- Domestic Use in 2000/01 Is Up Marginally This Month -- Price Projection for 2000/01 Unchanged in August -- Protein Up and Test Weight Down for Kansas Wheat in 2000 -- Wheat by Class -- Food Use Estimates for 1998/99 and 1999/2000 Revised -- Global 2000/01 Wheat Stocks Projection Down Slightly This Month -- U.S. Export Forecasts Adjusted on the July/June International Marketing Year -- Higher World Wheat Trade Forecast for 1999/2000 SPECIAL ARTICLE: U.S. Wheat Flour Disappearance Rebounds to Record in 1999 U.S. Wheat Production Forecast for 2000 Increased Again Total U.S. production is forecast at 2,263 million bushels, up 20 million bushels from last month. The increase reflects higher yield forecasts for winter wheat and other spring wheat this month. The larger spring wheat output more that offset a modest decline in the production forecast for durum. U.S. winter wheat production prospects for 2000 increased as higher yield forecasts for soft red winter (SRW) and white winter (WW) more than offset a lower yield forecast for hard red winter (HRW) wheat in Nebraska. The yield projection of 45.0 bushels per acre for winter wheat is 2.8 bushels below the record 47.8 bushels established in 1999. Domestic Use in 2000/01 Is Up Marginally This Month Projected food use in 2000/01 is increased 5 million bushels from last month following an unexpected increase in the 1999 mill grind estimates released by the Census Bureau (see special article on flour disappearance). Ending stocks are forecast to increase to 962 million bushels, up 15 million from last month and 12 million above last year's stocks. Price Projection for 2000/01 Unchanged in August Wheat prices have been under significant pressure as favorable yields have boosted production prospects for soft winter wheats and other spring wheat. The price received by farmers in June 1999 averaged $2.50 per bushel, the same as June 1999, and the preliminary mid-month estimate for July is $2.34 per bushel, 11 cents above the July 1999 price. As of August 14, the average loan deficiency payment paid on wheat was 30.4 cents per bushel, compared with an average of 46.6 cents for the entire 1999/2000 marketing year. This is another indication that farm prices are somewhat stronger than they were at this time last year. Payments issued to date total $229 million, covering 730 million bushels or 32 percent of the 2000 wheat crop. The U.S. season average farm price is expected to be about the same as the estimated $2.50 per bushel in 1999/2000. The monthly-average prices received by farmers during 2000/01 are expected to follow a normal seasonal pattern, hitting seasonal lows during harvest (June through August), then increasing to reflect carrying charges. In the coming months, the wheat price will not only be influenced by large U.S. and global wheat supplies, but also by weather patterns in the Corn Belt States that affect the corn and soybean crops. Protein Up and Test Weight Down for Kansas Wheat in 2000 Data released on August 3 by the Kansas Department of Agriculture indicate that protein is up and test weight is down from last year's crop. The August 3 report was the seventh and final in a series of wheat quality press releases during the 2000 wheat harvest in Kansas. The final estimates are based on data from 10,270 carlot samples from 65 counties that were tested by the Kansas Grain Inspection Service, Inc. The samples were tested for protein content, test weight, and other grade-determining factors. Test weight averaged 59.8 pounds per bushel, down from last year's average of 60.2 pounds, while the 10-year average from 1989-1998 is 60.0 pounds. Protein averaged 11.9 percent in 2000, up from 11.5 percent for 1999 and the 10-year average of 11.7 percent. The portion of samples grading U.S. No. 1, at 38 percent, is below the 61 percent of last year. Fifty-three percent graded U.S. No. 2, compared with 34 percent in 1999. About 9 percent of the samples graded U.S. No. 3 or below, up from about 5 percent in 1999. Average dockage content of all samples is 0.6 percent, unchanged from 1999. Ninety-one percent of all samples graded had a dockage content less than 0.9 percent, compared with 90 percent last year. The data are summarized by the Kansas Agricultural Statistics Service. The Kansas Wheat Commission funded the collection and publication of the data. The reports are available electronically at: http://www.nass.usda.gov/ks/ whtqual.htm. Additional tests to determine milling quality will be made by the Kansas State University Department of Grain Science and Industry, and the results will be published later in the 2000 Wheat Quality Bulletin. Wheat by Class Hard Red Winter Wheat--Hard red winter (HRW) wheat production prospects continued to decline during July, primarily because of a lower forecast yield for Nebraska. Total HRW output is forecast at 883 million bushels, 3 million below the July forecast and down about 172 million from 1999/2000. HRW use is projected to total 984 million bushels in 2000/01, about 42 percent of projected total U.S. wheat use. Soft Red Winter Wheat--Soft red winter (SRW) wheat production is forecast at 471 million bushels in 2000, up 4 million bushels from last month. The most dramatic increases occurred in Indiana and Michigan, where forecast yield increased 3 bushels per acre and 6 bushels, respectively, this month. Cloudy, wet weather is raising some quality concerns in Indiana, Michigan, and Ohio, but yields in those States are forecast at record levels. SRW production is forecast to account for about 21 percent of the U.S. wheat crop in 2000. Total use is projected at 458 million bushels in 2000/01, about 19 percent of total wheat use. Ending stocks of SRW are projected to increase this year. White Winter Wheat--White winter (WW) wheat production is pegged at 240 million bushels, up 5 million bushels from last month and 25 percent above 1999 due to more acres and higher average yields. Washington, Oregon, Idaho, and Michigan account for most of WW production. Yields in Michigan, forecast at 73 bushels per acre, will set a State record that is 4 bushels above last year's record. Yields in the Pacific Northwest will be up dramatically, particularly in Oregon (up 16 bushels from last year when drought conditions had a tremendous impact). Yields in Washington are up 13 bushels from last year, and Idaho's yields are up 6 bushels. Other Spring Wheat--Based on August 1 conditions, the other spring wheat (i.e., excluding durum) crop is forecast at 554 million bushels in 2000, up 28 million bushels from last month and up 54 million bushels from 1999. Production of HRS wheat, pegged at 499 million bushels, will be in abundant supply this year. White spring (WS) production is forecast at 55 million bushels, down minutely from last month and largely unchanged from last year. Durum Wheat--Based on August 1 conditions, U.S. production of durum wheat is forecast to total 115 million bushels, down 13 million from last month but 16 percent above 1999. Projected ending stocks of 64 million bushels will keep the pressure on durum prices in 1999/2000. The 1999/2000 durum outlook will be reviewed in a special Commodity Brief in the September 2000 issue of ERS' Agricultural Outlook magazine. Food Use Estimates for 1998/99 and 1999/2000 Revised The Bureau of the Census released the 1999 annual summary of the Flour Milling Products report on August 9, 2000. The new data led to revisions in food use estimates for both the 1998/99 and 1999/2000 wheat marketing years. The final food use estimate for 1998/99 is pegged at 909.744 million bushels. The projected food use for 1999/2000 is up 5 million bushels from last month to 925 million. The Census Bureau is expected to release the report for the second calendar quarter of 2000 later this month. This information will firm up the food use estimate for 1999/2000, but the estimate will not be finalized until the annual summary for 2000 is released by Census in August 2001. Global 2000/01 Wheat Stocks Projection Down Slightly This Month Changes in the August world wheat supply and demand forecasts were mostly offsetting. Global production was nearly unchanged this month as reduced production prospects for the European Union (EU) and Ukraine almost offset increases forecast for Kazakstan, the United States, Canada, Eastern Europe, and India. The EU production forecast declined more than 2 million tons because of rains delaying harvest. The poor harvest conditions may affect quality more than the size of the crop, which remains record large. Harvest reports from the Ukraine, which suffered from drought this spring, indicate the wheat crop was smaller than previously forecast, offsetting half of the 1-million ton increase in prospects for Kazakstan, where spring wheat growing conditions have been favorable. In Eastern Europe, harvest reports indicate the drought did not lower production in the region as much as anticipated. Increased prospects for Romania, Poland, and Bulgaria more than offset declines for the Czech Republic, Slovakia, and Hungary. In Canada, growing conditions have been too wet in some parts and too dry in others, but overall, the weather has been generally favorable, boosting production prospects by 0.5 million tons, almost matching last year's large crop. World wheat consumption in 2000/01 is projected slightly higher this month, mostly because of increased prospects in Eastern Europe. However, compared with the previous year, global consumption is down because reduced wheat feed use more than offsets slowly increasing food use. Most of the year-to-year decline in foreign feed use is in China and Ukraine, where production is dropping. World wheat ending stocks in 2000/01 are projected to decline to 113 million tons. Foreign stocks are down more than 1 million tons this month because lower stocks in the EU more than offset increases in Kazakstan and Australia. For Australia, forecast 1999/2000 local marketing year exports were reduced because of the slower-than-expected pace of shipments, boosting stocks in 2000/01. U.S. Export Forecasts Adjusted on the July/June International Marketing Year Forecast world wheat trade was increased slightly this month for both 1999/2000 and 2000/01. Although the U.S. June/May local marketing year exports were unchanged, the international marketing years were adjusted because of strong shipments in June 2000. The 1999/2000 export forecast increased from 29.0 million tons to 29.5 million, but because shipments in June 2001 are unlikely to match this year, the 2000/01 projection was reduced from 30.5 million to 30.0 million. Higher World Wheat Trade Forecast for 1999/2000 Although the 1999/2000 July-June trade year has ended, data are still gradually becoming available. Preliminary trade data indicate that 1999/2000 imports were larger than previously forecast for Indonesia, Egypt, Iran, the Philippines, Venezuela, the United States, and Ukraine, while the only downward adjustment was for Pakistan, where aid shipments were less than expected. Although these adjustments were all small, when combined they boosted 1999/2000 world wheat trade 1.4 million tons to 106.3 million tons, the highest total since 1992/93. EU trade data for 1999/2000 are still incomplete, but shipments and intervention sales were strong enough to support an increased forecast in wheat exports of 0.5 million tons to 16.0 million. Larger-than-expected flour exports by Japan also boosted global trade. Some 2000/01 import prospects increased slightly this month, including Indonesia, Iraq, Venezuela, and the EU, where emerging quality problems with the new crop may boost imports of high quality wheat. Wheat Export projections are increased for Canada and Eastern Europe, while Japan is expected in increase flour exports. World wheat trade in 2000/01 is projected to nearly match the previous year. SPECIAL ARTICLE U.S. Wheat Flour Disappearance Rebounds to Record in 1999 by Mack N. Leath The August 1999 issue of Wheat Outlook reported on the surprising drop in total- and per-capita consumption of wheat flour that occurred in calendar year 1998. That was only the second year in the 1990's that domestic disappearance declined. The annual Flour Milling Products - 1999 Summary report issued by the Bureau of Census on August 9, 2000, represents good news for the flour milling industry. Domestic disappearance of flour rebounded to a record 402.1 million hundredweight (cwt) in 1999. Per-capita disappearance rebounded from 146.0 pounds in 1998 to 147.3 pounds in 1999, up 1 percent. This article provides an update on flour production and consumption trends in the United States during the 1990's. It illustrates the method used by ERS to estimate total and per-capita disappearance of wheat flour and flour products in the United States. In general, domestic flour supply is estimated by adding the amount of flour and flour products (converted to flour-equivalent units) imported from other countries to domestic flour production estimates published by the Bureau of the Census. Domestic disappearance is the supply available after subtracting the quantities of flour and flour products (converted to flour-equivalent units) exported to other countries. Flour Supply The supply of flour available for use in the United States consists of flour production plus imports of flour and food products made from flour such as macaroni and pasta products (converted to flour-equivalent units). The flour supply available for consumption or export in 1999 is estimated at 421.3 million cwt. The total supply of flour and products in the United States has exceeded 400 million cwt during 5 of the last 6 years. The Census Bureau estimated that the flour milling industry milled a record 917.8 million bushels of wheat in 1999. The volume of wheat ground for flour increased, on average, approximately 1.6 percent per year during 1990-99 (table A.1). The volume of wheat ground by millers increased every year during the period except 1995. Flour production was pegged at 412.0 million cwt in 1999, 7.8 million above the previous record of 404.1 million cwt produced in 1997 (table A.1). The flour extraction rate improved 0.5 of a percentage point in 1999 but was well below the record 76 percent established in 1997. Imports of flour and flour products (converted to flour equivalent units) totaled 9.3 million cwt in 1999, down from the 9.8 million record established in 1998. Imports of flour and products grew rapidly during the decade, increasing by 169 percent. Flour Disappearance Domestic disappearance is estimated by subtracting exports of flour and flour products (converted to flour-equivalent units) from total supply available. Exports of flour totaled 17.6 million cwt in 1999, up 40 percent from the previous year. Domestic use accounted for an estimated 402.1 million cwt in 1999, up 7.3 million cwt from 1998. Per-capita use increased 1.3 pounds in 1999, off- setting part of the steep decline that occurred in 1998 (table A.2). The decline in 1998 surprised many industry observers, and it may have delayed capacity expansion plans by several firms in the industry. TABLE A.1 Wheat ground, flour production and total flour supply, United States, 1989-98 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Calendar Wheat Extraction Flour Flour Product Flour year ground rate production Imports imports 1/ supply ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1,000 cwt Percent ------------- 1,000 cwt -------------- 1990 788,186 74.9 354,348 233 3,227 357,808 1991 808,966 74.6 362,311 417 3,474 366,202 1992 833,339 74.2 370,829 1,013 3,819 375,661 1993 871,408 74.1 387,419 1,775 4,200 393,394 1994 884,707 73.9 392,519 3,343 5,344 401,206 1995 869,296 74.5 388,689 3,344 5,574 397,607 1996 878,070 75.5 397,776 2,919 5,655 406,350 1997 885,843 76.0 404,143 2,423 6,261 412,827 1998 895,369 74.3 398,914 2,954 6,876 408,744 1999 917,979 74.8 414,968 3,030 6,275 421,273 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes macaroni and noodle products converted to flour equivalent units. TABLE A.2 Wheat flour: supply, exports, and domestic consumption, United States, 1989-98 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Calendar Flour Flour Product Domestic Population Per year supply exports exports 1/ use July 1 capita ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1,000 cwt 1,000 cwt 1,000 cwt 1,000 cwt Million Pounds 1990 357,808 17,582 305 339,921 250.0 136.0 1991 366,202 19,611 557 346,034 252.7 137.0 1992 375,661 20,194 787 354,680 255.4 138.9 1993 393,394 22,731 687 369,976 258.1 143.3 1994 401,206 23,801 811 376,594 260.6 144.5 1995 397,607 23,615 857 373,135 263.1 141.8 1996 406,350 10,651 881 394,818 265.5 148.7 1997 412,827 11,038 1,167 400,622 268.0 149.5 1998 408,744 12,574 1,353 394,753 270.5 146.0 1999 421,273 17,568 1,610 402,095 272.9 147.3 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- - 1/ Includes macaroni and noodle products converted to flour equivalent units. Year-to-year changes must be interpreted with caution since the historical consumption estimates maintained by ERS and published in the Wheat Yearbook do not reflect changes in end-of-year flour stocks at flour mills. In an effort to look at the potential impact of this omission, data on end-of-year flour stocks since 1991 were downloaded from the Census Bureau's web site http://www.census.gov/cir/www/m20a.html. During the decade, December flour stocks at mills have ranged from 5.1 million cwt in 1999 to 7.5 million cwt in 1998. The drop between 1998 and 1999 was the largest year-over-year change during the 1990's. Fluctuations in flour stocks will average out over time, but the effect is to over estimate per capita consumption in years when stocks increased and underestimate per capita consumption in years when stocks declined. The 2.4 million cwt stock decline in 1999 was equivalent to 0.9 pounds per capita. The increase in stocks that occurred in 1998 was the equivalent of 0.4 pounds per capita. Conclusions Current long-range projections by the U.S. Department of Agriculture call for continued growth in total- and per-capita wheat consumption. Total consumption of flour and flour products is expected to continue to grow in response to population growth and changes in consumer taste and preferences. Growing health concerns have contributed to dramatic growth in use of grain-based products during the last quarter of a century. Many observers attribute the decline in 1998 to a rise in popularity of low-carbohydrate diets. Food manufacturers have introduced a variety of wheat-based products in the last decade in response to consumers' increasing desire for greater food variety, as well as more fast foods, pizzas, frozen meals in flour-based sauces, tortillas, and other specialty items. ================================================================= Information Contacts: Mack N. Leath (Situation Coordinator) (202) 694-5302 Edward W. Allen (International Analyst) (202) 694-5288 Gary Vocke (Domestic Analyst) (202) 694-5285 Jenny Gonzales (Data Coordinator) (202) 694-5296 Electronic copies available at: World Wide Web Site www.ers.usda.gov The next electronic Wheat Outlook report will be issued on September 14, 2000. The 2000 Wheat Yearbook is available through the ERS Homepage: www.ers.usda.gov/, select Products and Services, then Publications, Field Crops, and Wheat. Yearbook tables are also available from the Wheat Briefing Room at http:/www.ers.usda.gov/briefing/wheat/data/. Select Wheat Yearbook and download the README.TXT for a description of the wk1 file for each table. ============================================================================= Table 1--Wheat: U.S. market year supply and disappearance, 8/15/00 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Item 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00E 2000/01P ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Million acres Area: National total base 88.5 87.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Eff.base/Ctr. acres 0,50/92,85 6.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 CRP base retired 10.8 10.6 10.1 9.7 0.0 0.0 Planted 69.0 75.1 70.4 65.8 62.8 62.9 Harvested 61.0 62.8 62.8 59.0 53.9 54.4 Bushels per acre Yield: 35.8 36.3 39.5 43.2 42.7 41.6 Million bushels Supply: Beginning stocks 506.6 376.0 443.6 722.5 945.9 950.1 Production 2,182.7 2,277.4 2,481.5 2,547.3 2,302.4 2,263.2 Imports 1/ 67.9 92.3 94.9 103.0 94.5 100.0 Total supply 2,757.2 2,745.7 3,020.0 3,372.8 3,342.9 3,313.3 Use: Food 882.9 890.7 914.1 909.7 925.0 940.0 Seed 103.5 102.3 92.5 80.7 92.3 86.0 Feed and residual 153.7 307.6 250.5 394.3 286.0 225.0 Total domestic 1,140.1 1,300.6 1,257.1 1,384.7 1,303.3 1,251.0 Exports 1/ 1,241.1 1,001.5 1,040.4 1,042.2 1,089.5 1,100.0 Total use 2,381.2 2,302.1 2,297.5 2,426.9 2,392.8 2,351.0 Ending stocks: 376.0 443.6 722.5 945.9 950.1 962.3 Farmer-owned reserve 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 CCC inventory 2/ 118.0 93.0 94.0 128.0 104.0 110.0 Free stocks 258.0 350.6 628.5 817.9 846.1 852.3 Stocks-to-use ratio 15.8 19.3 31.4 39.0 39.7 40.9 Dollars per bushel Prices: Target price 4.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Loan rate 2.58 2.58 2.58 2.58 2.58 2.58 Contract rate 3/ 0.00 0.87 0.63 0.66 0.64 0.59 Ave. farm price 4.55 4.30 3.38 2.65 2.50 2.25-2.75 Million dollars Contract pmts. 3/ 100 1,941 1,413 2,718 3,826 3,702 Market value of production 9,787 9,782 8,287 6,781 5,756 5,658 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Source: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, WAOB, USDA. Totals may not add due to rounding. E=Estimated, P=Projected, N.A.=not applicable. 1/ Imports and exports include flour and other products expressed in wheat equivalent. 2/ Includes Food Security Reserve. 3/ Deficiency payments prior to 1996/97. Table 2--Wheat: U.S. market year supply and disappearance, 8/15/00 1/ ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1999/00E HRW HRS SRW White Durum All wheat ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Million acres Area: Planted 30.85 14.34 9.13 4.45 4.04 62.81 Harvested 24.45 13.79 8.02 4.09 3.57 53.91 Yield: (bu/acre) 43.15 32.49 56.55 60.39 27.83 42.71 Supply: Million bushels Beg. stocks 435.1 233.0 136.0 87.0 54.8 945.9 Production 1,055.0 447.9 453.4 246.8 99.3 2,302.4 Imports 2/ 0.1 59.7 0.0 6.4 28.3 94.5 Total 1,490.2 740.6 589.4 340.2 182.4 3,342.9 Utilization: Food 383.0 242.0 155.0 75.0 70.0 925.0 Seed 34.2 24.8 18.2 6.0 9.0 92.3 Feed and residual 131.0 25.8 111.2 8.2 9.9 286.0 Total domestic 548.2 292.6 284.4 89.2 88.9 1,303.3 Exports 2/ 485.6 230.0 170.0 160.0 43.9 1,089.5 Total 1,033.8 522.6 454.4 249.2 132.8 2,392.8 Ending stocks: 456.4 218.0 135.0 91.0 49.6 950.1 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2000/01P HRW HRS SRW White Durum All wheat ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Million acres Area: Planted 30.44 14.61 9.46 4.39 4.05 62.95 Harvested 23.91 14.14 8.18 4.23 3.99 54.45 Bushels per acre Yield: 37.09 33.25 57.10 68.70 32.15 41.19 Supply: Million bushels Beg. stocks 456.4 218.0 135.0 91.0 49.6 950.1 Production 883.5 498.6 471.3 294.7 115.2 2,263.2 Imports 2/ 1.0 62.0 0.0 7.0 30.0 100.0 Total 1,340.9 778.6 606.3 392.7 194.8 3,313.3 Utilization: Total domestic 514.0 282.0 268.0 96.0 91.0 1,251.0 Exports 2/ 470.0 230.0 190.0 170.0 40.0 1,100.0 Total 984.0 512.0 458.0 266.0 131.0 2,351.0 Ending stocks: 356.9 266.6 148.3 126.7 63.8 962.3 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Source: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, WAOB, USDA. Totals may not add due to rounding. E=Estimated, P=Projected. 1/ ERS estimates of area, yield, and domestic use. 2/ Imports and exports include flour and other products expressed in wheat equivalent. Table 3--Wheat: Quarterly supply and disappearance (1,000 bu.), 8/15/00 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Market Produc- Imports Supply Food Seed Feed Exports Ending Year tion 1/ 1/ stocks ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Million bushels 1997/98: Jun-Aug 2,481 23 2,948 228 3 352 288 2,076 Sep-Nov --- 23 2,099 239 59 (113) 296 1,619 Dec-Feb --- 24 1,643 219 2 0 255 1,167 Mar-May --- 26 1,192 228 29 11 201 722 Mktg. year 2,481 95 3,020 914 92 251 1,040 722 1998/99 E: Jun-Aug 2,547 24 3,294 226 1 425 257 2,385 Sep-Nov --- 24 2,409 241 55 (74) 292 1,896 Dec-Feb --- 28 1,923 213 1 12 247 1,450 Mar-May --- 27 1,477 230 23 32 246 946 Mktg. year 2,547 103 3,373 910 81 394 1,042 946 1999/00 P: Jun-Aug 2,302 31 3,279 230 6 273 324 2,445 Sep-Nov --- 19 2,465 241 55 (8) 291 1,886 Dec-Feb --- 19 1,905 220 2 31 236 1,415 Mar-May --- 25 1,440 233 29 (11) 239 950 Mkt. year 2,302 95 3,343 925 92 286 1,090 950 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- - Totals might not add due to rounding. E=Estimated, P=Projected. 1/ Imports and exports include flour and selected products expressed in wheat equivalent. Table 4--Monthly food use estimates for last 12 months, (1,000 bu.), 8/15/00 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Item | June July August September October November ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Mill grind + | 73,892 73,438 80,263 77,179 84,249 80,639 Food imports 1/ + | 1,927 1,703 1,772 1,576 1,830 1,939 Non-flour | food use 2/ + | 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 Food exports 1/ - | 4,373 3,842 2,846 6,904 4,950 2,607 Food use = | 73,446 73,300 81,189 73,851 83,129 81,972 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Item | December January February March April May ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Mill grind + | 75,692 72,931 72,352 76,762 N/A N/A Food imports 1/ + | 2,066 1,795 1,763 2,098 1,643 1,958 Non-flour | food use 2/ + | 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 Food exports 1/ - | 3,269 3,245 6,409 2,807 3,443 1,494 Food use = | 76,490 73,481 69,707 78,053 N/A N/A ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Census. Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Wheat flour and products converted to wheat grain equivalent. 2/ ERS estimate of cereal use. N/A=not available. Table 5--Wheat: National average price received by farmers ($/bu.), 8/15/00 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- | ------------------------ Farm prices ------------------------ Month | All wheat | Winter | Durum | Other spring | 99/00 00/01 | 99/00 00/01 | 99/00 00/01 | 99/00 00/01 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- June | 2.50 2.50 | 2.32 2.43 | 2.93 2.71 | 3.01 2.88 July 1/ | 2.23 2.34 | 2.13 2.29 | 2.89 2.72 | 2.93 2.85 August | 2.52 . | 2.34 . | 2.74 . | 2.85 . September | 2.57 . | 2 46 . | 2.30 . | 2.86 . October | 2.58 . | 2.47 . | 2.17 . | 2.80 . November | 2.66 . | 2.42 . | 2.62 . | 2.95 . December | 2.52 . | 2.27 . | 2.96 . | 2.87 . January | 2.50 . | 2.32 . | 2.89 . | 2.80 . February | 2.54 . | 2.37 . | 2.89 . | 2.82 . March | 2.59 . | 2.38 . | 2.62 . | 2.85 . April | 2.57 . | 2.32 . | 2.89 . | 2.89 . May | 2.59 . | 2.44 . | 2.98 . | 2.92 . Mktg. year | | | | average 2/| 2.53 . | 2.35 . | 2.74 . | 2.88 . ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Mid-month price for current month of the 1999/00 marketing year. 2/ Simple unweighted average of monthly prices. Source: National Agricultural Statistics Service, USDA. Table 6--Wheat: Regional average price received by farmers ($/bu.), 8/15/00 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- | -------------------- Regional farm prices -------------------- | Hard Winter | Soft Winter | Hard Spring | Soft White Month | So. Plains 1/ | Corn Belt 2/ | No. Plains 3/ | Northwest 4/ | 99/00 00/01 | 99/00 00/01 | 99/00 00/01 | 99/00 00/01 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- June | 2.35 2.52 | 2.14 2.27 | 3.01 2.88 | 2.86 2.50 July | 2.15 2.45 | 1.99 2.03 | 2.93 2.85 | 2.73 2.52 August | 2.26 . | 2.15 . | 2.85 . | 2.82 . September | 2.33 . | 2.16 . | 2.86 . | 2.84 . October | 2.16 . | 2.15 . | 2.80 . | 2.80 . November | 2.14 . | 2.08 . | 2.95 . | 2.82 . December | 2.07 . | 2.13 . | 2.87 . | 2.68 . January | 2.24 . | 2.27 . | 2.80 . | 2.72 . February | 2.29 . | 2.38 . | 2.82 . | 2.55 . March | 2.34 . | 2.25 . | 2.85 . | 2.61 . April | 2.23 . | 2.16 . | 2.89 . | 2.58 . May | 2.39 . | 2.23 . | 2.92 . | 2.65 . Annual | | | | average | 2.24 . | 2.17 . | 2.88 . | 2.72 . ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Average price of winter wheat in Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma, and Texas. 2/ Average price of winter wheat in Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, Missouri, and Arkansas. 3/ Monthly weighted U.S. average price for "other spring" wheat. 4/ Average price of all wheat in Washington, Oregon, and Idaho. Source: Agricultural Prices, NASS, USDA. Regional prices are ERS estimates the average price received by farmers in major production States. Table 7--Wheat: Average cash grain bids at selected markets ($/bu.), 8/15/00 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- | KC HRW #1 | KC HRW #1 | Portland | FOB Gulf Month | ordinary | 13% protein | #1 HRW Ord. | $/mt (#2 HRW) | 99/00 00/01 | 99/00 00/01 | 99/00 00/01 | 99/00 00/01 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- June | 2.93 3.07 | 3.22 3.59 | 3.10 3.19 | 110.60 115.66 July | 2.68 2.97 | 3.39 3.25 | 2.83 3.05 | 101.04 114.60 August | 2.85 . | 3.42 . | 3.00 . | 109.86 . September | 2.92 . | 3.52 . | 3.12 . | 113.17 . October | 2.80 . | 3.40 . | 2.97 . | 107.29 . November | 2.89 . | 3.54 . | 2.98 . | 108.76 . December | 2.81 . | 3.44 . | 2.84 . | 102.88 . January | 2.90 . | 3.46 . | 2.95 . | 106.17 . February | 2.94 . | 3.37 . | 3.01 . | 109.69 . March | 2.91 . | 3.29 . | 2.95 . | 107.22 . April | 2.84 . | 3.30 . | 2.93 . | 106.17 . May | 2.95 . | 3.52 . | 3.07 . | 111.50 . ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- | Minneapolis | Minneapolis | Minneapolis | Minneapolis Month | DNS 13% prot. | DNS 14% prot. | DNS 15% prot. | #1 HAD milling | 99/00 00/01 | 99/00 00/01 | 99/00 00/01 | 99/00 00/01 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- June | 3.65 3.50 | 3.73 3.78 | 4.03 4.08 | N/Q 4.07 July | 3.46 3.24 | 3.68 3.50 | 4.02 3.91 | 3.92 3.85 August | 3.29 . | 3.58 . | 4.10 . | 3.73 . September | 3.32 . | 3.55 . | 4.07 . | 4.14 . October | 3.23 . | 3.70 . | 4.17 . | 4.46 . November | 3.42 . | 3.78 . | 4.22 . | 4.80 . December | 3.38 . | 3.64 . | 3.89 . | N/Q . January | 3.19 . | 3.37 . | 3.99 . | N/Q . February | 3.37 . | 3.59 . | 3.94 . | 4.40 . March | 3.44 . | 3.65 . | 3.95 . | N/Q . April | 3.50 . | 3.69 . | 4.06 . | 4.11 . May | 3.50 . | 3.80 . | 4.15 . | 4.25 . ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- | St. Louis | Chicago | Toledo | Portland Month | #2 soft red | #2 soft red | #2 soft red | #1 soft white | 99/00 00/01 | 99/00 00/01 | 99/00 00/01 | 99/00 00/01 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- June | 2.31 2.59 | 2.20 2.41 | 2.18 2.27 | 3.17 2.92 July | N/Q 2.17 | 1.94 2.14 | 2.02 2.06 | 3.06 2.78 August | 2.22 . | 2.09 . | 2.24 . | 3.14 . September | 2.48 . | 2.12 . | 2.23 . | 3.25 . October | 2.31 . | 1.98 . | 2.12 . | 3.24 . November | 2.50 . | 1.96 . | 2.06 . | 3.09 . December | 2.26 . | 2.12 . | 2.00 . | 2.83 . January | 2.38 . | 2.34 . | 2.23 . | 2.91 . February | 2.51 . | 2.38 . | 2.26 . | 2.88 . March | 2.40 . | 2.34 . | 2.17 . | 2.84 . April | 2.38 . | 2.30 . | 2.11 . | 2.89 . May | 2.56 . | 2.45 . | 2.28 . | 2.97 . ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- N/Q-no quote. Source: Grain and Feed Weekly Summary and Statistics, AMS. Table 8--Wheat: U.S. exports and imports for last 6 months, 8/15/00 1/ ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Exports, (1,000 bu.) 1999/2000 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Item 1/ | December January February March April May ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Wheat grain | 87,054 71,763 64,198 68,836 73,815 87,789 Wheat flour | 3,023 2,924 6,108 2,615 3,193 1,286 Products | 246 322 302 287 250 678 Total | 90,323 75,010 70,608 71,738 77,258 89,754 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Imports, (1,000 bu.) 1999/2000 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Item 1/ | December January February March April May -------------|--------------------------------------------------------------- Wheat grain | 4,711 3,273 5,823 6,550 6,623 6,134 Wheat flour | 636 561 577 634 535 632 Products | 1,433 1,235 1,191 1,470 1,108 1,328 Total | 6,779 5,069 7,591 8,653 8,267 8,093 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Census. 1/ Wheat flour and products converted to wheat grain equivalent. Totals may not add due to rounding. Table 9--Wheat: U.S. exports, Census and Export Sales comparison, 8/15/00 1/ ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- | 1998/99 | 1999/2000 | 2000/01 (as of 08/03/00) Importing |-----------------------------------|-------------------------- country | | Ship- |Outstanding| Total | Shipments | ments | sales | ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Data | | Export | | Export | Export Source | Census | sales | Census | sales | Sales ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- | 1,000 metric tons Country: | Egypt | 4,516 | 4,516 | 3,923 | 4,168 | 1,009 860 1,869 Japan | 3,055 | 3,201 | 3,172 | 3,122 | 317 365 682 Philippines | 1,682 | 1,749 | 2,126 | 2,175 | 347 435 782 Mexico | 1,733 | 1,860 | 1,832 | 1,963 | 286 213 499 S. Korea | 1,532 | 1,366 | 1,670 | 1,475 | 281 242 523 EU | 1,421 | 1,407 | 1,330 | 1,300 | 314 247 561 Nigeria | 1,238 | 1,300 | 1,127 | 1,300 | 300 277 577 Taiwan | 889 | 920 | 983 | 1,005 | 204 95 299 Israel | 716 | 734 | 820 | 917 | 160 73 233 Colombia | 535 | 509 | 779 | 726 | 81 121 202 Total grain | 27,402 | 25,555 | 28,047 | 25,453 | 4,382 3,741 8,123 Total(incl) | | | | | products) | 28,209 | 25,648 | 29,158 | 25,500 | 4,387 3,748 8,135 USDA forecast | | | | | of Census | | | | | 29,937 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/Export sales and shipments from USDA's weekly U.S. Export Sales report. N.A. - not available. END_OF_FILE