WHEAT OUTLOOK September 14, 2000 September 2000, WHS-0900 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WHEAT OUTLOOK is issued 11 times a year by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. Electronic release only; no published copies are available. WHEAT OUTLOOK is supplemented by an annual WHEAT YEARBOOK. The yearbook summary for 2000 was released on March 27, 2000. Yearbooks are available in print from ERS-NASS Order Desk. For the 2000 issue, call 1-800-999-6779 (703-605-6220) and ask for stock #ERS-WHS-2000, $21. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Highlights -- U.S. Wheat Production Forecast for 2000 Increased Again -- Price Projection for 2000/01 Unchanged in September -- Harvest for Other Spring Wheat and Durum Well Ahead of Last Year -- Preliminary Quality Data on 2000 HRS and Durum Crops -- Wheat by Class -- U.S. 2000/01 Wheat Export Forecast Boosted Because of Reduced Competition -- World Wheat Trade in 1999/2000 Up 2 Million Tons Based on Preliminary Data SPECIAL ARTICLE: Durum Food Use Down Again in Calendar 1999 U.S. Wheat Production Forecast for 2000 Increased Again Total U.S. production is forecast at 2,302 million bushels, up 39 million bushels from last month and well above most trade estimates. The increase reflects higher yield forecasts for durum wheat and other spring wheat. This is the last monthly update of the wheat production forecast prior to publication of the final estimates for this crop in the Small Grains, 2000 Summary report scheduled for release on September 29, 2000. U.S. spring wheat production prospects for 2000 increased because of significantly higher yield forecasts for hard red spring (HRS) wheat in North Dakota (up 4 bushels per acre from last month), Minnesota (up 5 bushels), and South Dakota (up 1 bushel). Montana was the only State where the yield for other spring wheat declined (down 1 bushel). The durum production forecast is up because yield prospects increased 1 bushel in North Dakota this month. Because of the larger acreage in North Dakota, that increase more than offset a 1-bushel decline in Montana. Price Projection for 2000/01 Unchanged in September Wheat prices have been under significant pressure as favorable yields have boosted production prospects for other spring and durum wheats. The preliminary price received by farmers in July 2000 averaged $2.32 per bushel, 9 cents per bushel above the all-wheat price in July 1999, but the preliminary mid-month estimate for August is $2.30 per bushel, 22 cents below the August 1999 price. Even though prices are weak, agricultural program payments continue to help support producers income and maintain cash flows in the farm economy. As of September 11, the average loan deficiency payment paid on wheat was 40 cents per bushel, compared with an average of 46.6 cents for the entire 1999/2000 marketing year. Payments issued to date total $483 million, covering 1,200 million bushels or almost half of the 2000 wheat crop. The U.S. season average farm price is expected to be about the same as the estimated $2.48 per bushel received by farmers in 1999/2000. The monthly-average prices received by farmers during 2000/01 are expected to follow a normal seasonal pattern, hitting seasonal lows during harvest (June through August), then increasing to reflect carrying charges. In the coming months, the wheat price will not only be influenced by large U.S. and global wheat supplies, but also by the planting conditions in the Northern Hemisphere for the 2001 wheat crop. Harvest of Other Spring Wheat and Durum Well Ahead of Last Year Generally favorable weather conditions advanced crop maturity and allowed for a rapid harvest of spring wheat in the Northern Plains. However, rainy conditions have slowed the harvest, especially for durum, in recent weeks. The spring wheat harvest was 93 percent completed in the six major producing States on September 10, compared with 76 percent in 1999 and 85 percent for the recent 5-year average for the date. In North Dakota, 87 percent of the harvest was completed on that date, compared with 63 percent last year and a 5-year average of 80 percent. In comparison, 58 percent of the durum crop in North Dakota was harvested by September 10, well ahead of the 31 percent for 1999 and equaling the 5-year average. Preliminary Quality Data on 2000 HRS and Durum Crops The U.S. Wheat Associates provide weekly updates on the quality of the HRS and durum crops in its Weekly Harvest Report [www.uswheat.org]. The data released in the September 12 report indicate test weight is averaging 60.3 lb/bu (79.3 kg/hl), compared with last year s average of 59.3 lb/bu (78.2 kg/hl). Protein is averaging 14.3 percent in 2000, 0.1 percent above last year s crop and slightly higher than the 5-year average of 14.1 percent. The percent of kernels damaged is running only 0.3 percent this year, down from 0.4 percent last year and below the 5-year average of 1.0 percent. Average dockage content of all samples is 1.2 percent, well below the 2.1 percent in 1999. The drier harvest conditions this year have also kept falling number values above 400 seconds for the new crop. The average was 347 last year. The falling number indicates the soundness or alpha-amylase activity in wheat or flour. A high falling number indicates low enzyme activity, while low falling numbers indicate high enzyme activity which is associated with non-visible sprout damage. Preliminary data for durum indicate an average test weight at 59.7 lb/bu (77.8 kg/hl), 0.1 of a pound below last year and below the 5-year average of 60 lb/bu (78.2 kg/hl). The percent of damaged kernels is 1.7 percent, the same as last year and slightly above the 5-year average of 1.5 percent. The shrunken and broken kernels percentage is down 0.5 percent from last year s 1.8 percent. Total defects (the sum of foreign matter, damaged kernels, and shrunken & broken kernels) is pegged at 3.0 percent this year, down from 3.6 percent in 1999 and the 5-year average of 3.8 percent. The falling number value is averaging 380 seconds for the new crop, well above the 250 average in 1999. Wheat by Class Hard Red Winter Wheat--Hard red winter (HRW) wheat production forecast at 883 million bushels, is down about 172 million from 1999/2000. HRW use is projected to total 984 million bushels in 2000/01. Soft Red Winter Wheat--Soft red winter (SRW) wheat production is forecast at 471 million bushels in 2000. Total use is projected at 468 million bushels in 2000/01, up 10 million from last month because of larger projected exports. White Wheat--White winter (WW) wheat production is forecast at 240 million bushels, and the white spring (WS) crop is pegged at 55 million bushels, bringing total white wheat production up to 295 million, the same as last month. Washington, Oregon, Idaho, and Michigan account for most of white wheat production in the United States. White wheat exports are up 5 million bushels this month, which increases the projection of total use to 271 million. Hard Red Spring Wheat--Based on September 1 conditions, the hard red spring (HRS) wheat crop is forecast at 535 million bushels in 2000, up 36 million bushels from last month and up 87 million bushels from 1999. HRS wheat will be in abundant supply this year. Total use of HRS is projected at 517 million bushels, up 5 million from last month because of larger exports. Durum Wheat--Based on September 1 conditions, U.S. production of durum wheat is forecast to total 118 million bushels, up 3 million from last month but 19 million above 1999. A 5-million-bushel increase in the export projection more than offset the production increase, but ending stocks of 61 million bushels will keep the pressure on durum prices in 2000/01. U.S. 2000/01 Wheat Export Forecast Boosted Because of Reduced Competition The U.S. export projection increased 0.5 million tons this month, reaching 30.5 million, the highest since 1995/96. Export prospects for Canada and the European Union (EU) were reduced. Canada s production forecast dropped 0.5 million tons because of lower area reported by Statistics Canada and lower than expected yield prospects in Saskatchewan. Moreover, preliminary data indicate that Canada s 1999/2000 export shipments were above earlier projections, reducing stocks available for export in 2000/01. Lower supplies dropped Canada s 2000/01 export prospects to 18.5 million tons, down 1 million from last month. Meanwhile, the 2000/01 EU export forecast declined 0.5 million tons because of uncertainty about quality availability which caused the Commission to limit early season exports. Unfavorable harvest conditions contributed to reduced production prospects this month for the EU, but at 104 million tons, it is still a record crop. U.S. export prospects did not increase as much as the drop in Canada s and the EU s exports because projections for other exporters were increased and some importers import prospects were reduced. Several minor wheat exporters prospects for 2000/01 were increased this month. Mexico shipped more durum than expected in 1999/2000, and the country is expected to continue the pace in 2000/01. Pakistan and India, both with record production and also large stocks, are expected to increase exports. Also, Russia s production forecast is increased 2.0 million tons, leading to a 0.5-million ton reduction in projected imports by that country. The slow pace of China s purchases led to a 0.5-million ton reduction in projected 2000/01 imports. The revision for China offset an increase in Brazil s imports caused by the strong pace of purchases and reduced production prospects caused by freeze damage. Forecast 2000/01 global wheat production, consumption, trade, and ending stocks all increased this month, but not significantly. World Wheat Trade in 1999/2000 Up 2 Million Tons Based on Preliminary Data World wheat trade reached an estimated 108 million tons (excluding intra-EU trade) in 1999/2000, the highest since 1993/94. Wheat trade is up from last month because preliminary data show stronger than expected shipments from several countries. Projected exports were increased most for Canada, but export projections for Argentina, Australia, and Eastern Europe were also increased. Import forecasts for many destinations were adjusted, and a majority of the countries were increased. However, the most significant increase was for Brazil, up 0.5 million tons to 7.2 million, matching Iran as the world s largest wheat importer. Global wheat consumption in 1999/2000 is now estimated at 597 million tons, 13.5 million greater than production, dropping world stocks to 127 million. SPECIAL ARTICLE Durum Food Use Down Again in Calendar 1999 by Mack N. Leath An article in the August 2000 issue of Wheat Outlook focused on the domestic use of wheat flour and flour products in 1999, emphasizing the rebound of flour disappearance to record levels in calendar year 1999. This article will use data from the recent Flour Milling Products reports released by Census and data on imports and exports of semolina and durum products to study the durum product component of domestic food use of wheat in the 1990's. Domestic Supply of Semolina and Durum Products Semolina Production--The annual Flour Milling Products - 1999 Summary report issued by the Bureau of the Census on August 9, 2000, indicated that durum wheat ground by durum millers totaled 56.3 million bushels in 1999. That total is 4 percent below 1998 and 22 percent below the record 72.1 million bushels ground in 1994 (table A.1). Semolina production in 1999 is estimated at 26.1 million hundredweight (cwt), down 4 percent from 1998 and 20 percent below the 32.6 million cwt record established in 1994 (table A.1). Imports of Semolina and Durum Products--Semolina and durum product imports in 1999 totaled 5.2 million cwt, down 448,000 from the record established a year earlier. Imports of semolina and durum products (durum pasta with and without sauce, durum flour, and couscous) have increased 111 percent since 1990. TABLE A.1 Durum products: Production, imports, and total supply, United States, 1990-99 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Durum Average Semolina & Total Calendar Wheat extraction Semolina product supply year ground rate production imports 1/ available ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1,000 bu Percent 1,000 cwt 1,000 cwt 1,000 cwt 1990 58,366 74.9 26,236 2,444 28,680 1991 58,969 72.4 25,613 2,693 28,306 1992 67,999 78.2 31,905 2,986 34,891 1993 70,575 76.7 32,488 3,390 35,878 1994 72,141 75.4 32,631 4,330 36,961 1995 67,627 76.3 30,964 4,562 35,526 1996 70,069 77.6 32,623 4,557 37,180 1997 64,663 76.0 29,476 5,163 34,639 1998 58,395 77.2 27,056 5,605 32,661 1999 56,314 77.2 26,086 5,157 31,243 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Includes semolina and durum flour, pasta products, and couscous converted to semolina-equivalent units. Source: Bureau of the Census, Flour Milling Products reports and trade data. TABLE A.2 Durum products: Supply, exports, and domestic use, United States, 1990-99 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Total Total Total Per Calendar supply Semolina Product domestic population capita year available exports exports 1/ use July 1 use ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1,000 cwt 1,000 cwt 1,000 cwt 1,000 cwt Million Pounds 1990 28,680 39 179 28,462 250.0 11.4 1991 28,306 129 294 27,883 252.7 11.0 1992 34,891 188 451 34,252 255.4 13.4 1993 35,878 354 205 35,319 258.1 13.7 1994 36,961 503 154 36,304 260.6 13.9 1995 35,526 156 563 34,807 263.1 13.2 1996 37,180 174 569 36,437 265.5 13.7 1997 34,639 152 893 33,594 268.0 12.5 1998 32,661 138 1,037 31,486 270.5 11.6 1999 31,243 168 1,385 29,690 272.9 10.9 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Includes semolina and durum flour, pasta products, and couscous converted to semolina-equivalent units. Source: Bureau of the Census, Flour Milling Products reports and trade data. Total Supply--The supply of semolina and durum products available for domestic use or export consists of domestic semolina production plus imports of semolina, couscous, macaroni, and noodle products (converted to semolina equivalent units). The total supply available for domestic use or export in 1999 was estimated at 31.2 million cwt, down from the record 37.2 million in 1996 (table A.1). Domestic Disappearance of Semolina and Durum Products Domestic consumption is estimated by subtracting exports of semolina and durum products from the total supply available. Domestic use is estimated at 29.7 million cwt in 1999, down from the record 36.4 million in 1996. Per capita use has dropped 2.8 pounds since 1996 (table A.2). Per capita use surpassed 13 pounds for the first time in 1992, and remained above that level for the next 4 years. Durum Mill Grind Up in 2000 The Census reports for the first two calendar quarters of 2000 indicated that durum food use will likely increase in 2000. During the first 6 months of 2000, durum grind is up 6.3 million bushels over the same period in 1999, a 22-percent increase. Semolina production is also up 22 percent or 2.9 million cwt. Depending on how the trade accounts work out for durum, total and per capita consumption of semolina and durum products are expected to be up in calendar 2000. However, year-to-year comparisons are somewhat misleading because the Bureau of the Census revised the flour milling census beginning with the census for the first quarter of 2000. The revision expanded coverage of the census by including four unidentified integrated pasta firms that operate durum mills on site. The total wheat flour picture is different. During the January-June period of 2000, total mill grind (including durum) was up only 5.8 million bushels (a 1.3 percent increase over last year). Total flour production (including semolina) during the first 6 months of 2000 was only 52,000 cwt above the first 6 months of 1999, an insignificant increase. Conclusions Total domestic use of semolina and pasta products in 1999 was larger than at the beginning of the decade, but population growth reduced the 1999 disappearance to a decade low of 10.9 pounds per capita. Between 1994 and 1999 per-capita use dropped 22 percent. This decline is believed to be a data illusion since the flour milling census did not include four durum mills operated by the integrated pasta manufacturers prior to 2000. Preliminary data for the first 6 months of calendar year 2000 indicate that domestic semolina production is above the same period of 1999. ============================================================================== Information Contacts: Mack N. Leath (Situation Coordinator) (202) 694-5302 Edward W. Allen (International Analyst) (202) 694-5288 Gary Vocke (Domestic Analyst) (202) 694-5285 Jenny Gonzales (Data Coordinator) (202) 694-5296 Electronic copies available at: World Wide Web Site www.ers.usda.gov The next electronic Wheat Outlook report will be issued on October 16, 2000. The 2000 Wheat Yearbook is available through the ERS Homepage: www.ers.usda.gov/, select Products and Services, then Publications, Field Crops, and Wheat. Yearbook tables are also available from the Wheat Briefing Room at http:/www.ers.usda.gov/briefing/wheat/data/. Select Wheat Yearbook and download the README.TXT for a description of the contents of each table available in wk1 format. ============================================================================== Table 1--Wheat: U.S. market year supply and disappearance, 9/14/00 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Item 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00E 2000/01P ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Area: million acres National toal base 88.5 87.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Eff. base/Contract acres 0,50/92,85 6.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 CRP base retired 10.8 10.6 10.1 9.7 0.0 0.0 Planted 69.0 75.1 70.4 65.8 62.8 62.9 Harvested 61.0 62.8 62.8 59.0 53.9 54.4 Bushels per acre Yield per harvested acre: 35.8 36.3 39.5 43.2 42.7 42.3 Supply: million bushels Beginning stocks 506.6 376.0 443.6 722.5 945.9 950.1 Production 2,182.7 2,277.4 2,481.5 2,547.3 2,302.4 2,302.3 Imports 1/ 67.9 92.3 94.9 103.0 94.5 100.0 Total supply 2,757.2 2,745.7 3,020.0 3,372.8 3,342.9 3,352.3 Use: Food 882.9 890.7 914.1 909.7 924.7 940.0 Seed 103.5 102.3 92.5 80.7 92.3 86.0 Feed and residual 153.7 307.6 250.5 394.3 286.2 225.0 Total domestic 1,140.1 1,300.6 1,257.1 1,384.7 1,303.3 1,251.0 Exports 1/ 1,241.1 1,001.5 1,040.4 1,042.2 1,089.5 1,125.0 Total use 2,381.2 2,302.1 2,297.5 2,426.9 2,392.8 2,376.0 Ending stocks: 376.0 443.6 722.5 945.9 950.1 976.3 Farmer-owned reserve 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 CCC inventory 2/ 118.0 93.0 94.0 128.0 104.0 110.0 Free stocks 258.0 350.6 628.5 817.9 846.1 866.3 Stocks-to-use ratio 15.8 19.3 31.4 39.0 39.7 41.1 Prices: Dollars per bushel Target price 4.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Loan rate 2.58 2.58 2.58 2.58 2.58 2.58 Contract rate 3/ 0.00 0.87 0.63 0.66 0.64 0.59 Ave. farm price 4.55 4.30 3.38 2.65 2.48 2.25-2.75 Million dollars Contract pmts. 3/ 100 1,941 1,413 2,718 3,826 3,611 Market value of production 9,787 9,782 8,287 6,781 5,710 5,756 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Source: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, WAOB, USDA. Totals may not add due to rounding. E=Estimated, P=Projected, N.A.=not applicable. 1/ Imports and exports include flour and other products expressed in wheat equivalent. 2/ Includes Food Security Reserve. 3/ Deficiency payments prior to 1996/97. Table 2--Wheat: U.S. market year supply and disappearance, 9/14/00 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1998/99 HRW HRS SRW White Durum All wheat ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Area: Million acres Planted 30.85 14.34 9.13 4.45 4.04 62.81 Harvested 24.45 13.79 8.02 4.09 3.57 53.91 Yield: (bu/acre) 43.15 32.49 56.55 60.39 27.83 42.71 Supply: Million bushels Beg. stocks 435.1 233.0 136.0 87.0 54.8 945.9 Production 1,055.0 447.9 453.4 246.8 99.3 2,302.4 Imports 2/ 0.1 59.7 0.0 6.4 28.3 94.5 Total 1490.2 740.6 589.4 340.2 182.4 3342.9 Utilization: Food 383.0 242.0 155.0 75.0 70.0 925.0 Seed 34.2 24.8 18.2 6.0 9.0 92.3 Feed & residual 131.0 25.8 111.2 8.2 9.9 286.0 Total domestic 548.2 292.6 284.4 89.2 88.9 1,303.3 Exports 2/ 485.6 230.0 170.0 160.0 43.9 1,089.5 Total 1,033.8 522.6 454.4 249.2 132.8 2,392.8 Ending stocks: 456.4 218.0 135.0 91.0 49.6 950.1 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2000/01P HRW HRS SRW White Durum All wheat ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Area: Million acres Planted 30.44 14.61 9.46 4.39 4.05 62.95 Harvested 23.91 14.14 8.18 4.23 3.99 54.45 Yield: (bu/acre) 36.95 37.82 57.63 68.71 29.57 42.29 Supply: Million bushels Beg. stocks 456.4 218.0 135.0 91.0 49.6 950.1 Production 883.5 534.9 471.3 294.7 117.9 2,302.3 Imports 2/ 1.0 62.0 0.0 7.0 30.0 100.0 Total 1,340.9 814.9 606.3 392.7 197.5 3,352.3 Utilization: Total domestic 514.0 282.0 268.0 96.0 91.0 1,251.0 Exports 2/ 470.0 235.0 200.0 175.0 45.0 1,125.0 Total 984.0 517.0 468.0 271.0 136.0 2,376.0 Ending stocks: 356.9 297.9 138.3 121.7 61.5 976.3 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Source: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, WAOB, USDA. Totals may not add due to rounding. E=Estimated, P=Projected. 1/ ERS estimates of area, yield, and domestic use. 2/ Imports and exports include flour and other products expressed in wheat equivalent. Table 3--Wheat: Quarterly supply and disappearance (1,000 bu.), 9/14/00 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Market Produc- Imports Supply Food Seed Feed Exports Ending Year tion 2/ 2/ stocks ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Million bushels 1997/98: Jun-Aug 2,481 23 2,948 228 3 352 288 2,076 Sep-Nov --- 23 2,099 239 59 (113) 296 1,619 Dec-Feb --- 24 1,643 219 2 0 255 1,167 Mar-May --- 26 1,192 228 29 11 201 722 Mkt. year 2,481 95 3,020 914 92 251 1,040 722 1998/99 E: Jun-Aug 2,547 24 3,294 226 1 425 257 2,385 Sep-Nov --- 24 2,409 241 55 (74) 292 1,896 Dec-Feb --- 28 1,923 213 1 12 247 1,450 Mar-May --- 27 1,477 230 23 32 246 946 Mkt. year 2,547 103 3,373 910 81 394 1,042 946 1999/00 P: Jun-Aug 2,302 31 3,279 230 6 273 324 2,445 Sep-Nov --- 19 2,465 241 55 (8) 291 1,886 Dec-Feb --- 19 1,905 221 2 31 236 1,415 Mar-May --- 25 1,440 232 29 (10) 239 950 Mkt. year 2,302 95 3,343 925 92 286 1,090 950 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Totals might not add due to rounding. E=Estimated, P=Projected. 1/ Imports and exports include flour and selected products expressed in wheat equivalent. Table 4--Monthly food use estimates for last 12 months, (1,000 bu.), 9/14/00 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Item | July August September October November December ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Mill grind + | 74,443 81,361 78,235 84,807 81,174 76,194 Food imports 1/ + | 1,703 1,772 1,576 1,830 1,939 2,066 Non-flour | food use 2/ + | 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 Food exports 1/ - | 3,842 2,846 6,904 4,950 2,607 3,269 Food use = | 74,305 82,287 74,907 83,367 82,506 76,991 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Item | January February March April May June -------------- --------------------------------------------------------------- Mill grind + | 73,294 72,712 77,144 74,727 76,406 73,101 Food imports 1/ + | 1,795 1,763 2,098 1,643 1,958 1,809 Non-flour | food use 2/ + | 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 Food exports 1/ - | 3,245 6,409 2,807 3,443 1,494 3,834 Food use = | 73,884 70,067 78,434 74,927 78,870 73,076 -------------- --------------------------------------------------------------- - 1/ Wheat flour and products converted to wheat grain equivalent. 2/ ERS estimate of cereal use. N.A.=Not available. Totals may not add due to rounding. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Census. Table 5--Wheat: National average price received by farmers ($/bu.), 9/14/00 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | ------------------------ Farm prices ------------------------ Month | All wheat | Winter | Durum | Other spring | 99/00 00/01 | 99/00 00/01 | 99/00 00/01 | 99/00 00/01 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ June | 2.50 2.50 | 2.32 2.43 | 2.93 2.71 | 3.01 2.88 July | 2.22 2.32 | 2.13 2.23 | 2.89 2.90 | 2.93 2.74 August 1/ | 2.53 2.30 | 2.34 2.21 | 2.74 2.54 | 2.74 2.51 September | 2.58 . | 2 46 . | 2.30 . | 2.86 . October | 2.57 . | 2.47 . | 2.17 . | 2.80 . November | 2.66 . | 2.42 . | 2.62 . | 2.95 . December | 2.52 . | 2.27 . | 2.96 . | 2.87 . January | 2.51 . | 2.32 . | 2.89 . | 2.80 . February | 2.54 . | 2.37 . | 2.89 . | 2.82 . March | 2.59 . | 2.38 . | 2.62 . | 2.85 . April | 2.57 . | 2.32 . | 2.89 . | 2.89 . May | 2.59 . | 2.44 . | 2.98 . | 2.92 . Mktg. year | | | | average 2/| 2.53 . | 2.35 . | 2.74 . | 2.88 . ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Mid-month price for current month of the 2000/01 marketing year. 2/ Simple unweighted average of monthly prices. Source: National Agricultural Statistics Service, USDA. Table 6 Wheat by class: Price received by farmers, 9/14/00 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | -------------------- Regional farm prices -------------------- | Hard Winter | Soft Winter | Hard Spring |Soft White Month | So. Plains 1/ | Corn Belt 2/ | No. Plains 3/ | Northwest 4/ | 99/00 00/01 | 99/00 00/01 | 99/00 00/01 | 99/00 00/01 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Dollars per bushel June | 2.35 2.52 | 2.14 2.27 | 3.01 2.88 | 2.86 2.50 July | 2.15 2.40 | 1.99 2.02 | 2.93 2.74 | 2.73 2.57 August | 2.26 2.35 | 2.15 1.96 | 2.85 2.51 | 2.82 2.42 September | 2.33 . | 2.16 . | 2.86 . | 2.84 . October | 2.16 . | 2.15 . | 2.80 . | 2.80 . November | 2.14 . | 2.08 . | 2.95 . | 2.82 . December | 2.07 . | 2.13 . | 2.87 . | 2.68 . January | 2.24 . | 2.27 . | 2.80 . | 2.72 . February | 2.29 . | 2.38 . | 2.82 . | 2.55 . March | 2.34 . | 2.25 . | 2.85 . | 2.61 . April | 2.23 . | 2.16 . | 2.89 . | 2.58 . May | 2.39 . | 2.23 . | 2.92 . | 2.65 . Annual | | | | average | 2.24 . | 2.17 . | 2.88 . | 2.72 . ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Average price of winter wheat in Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma, and Texas. 2/ Average price of winter wheat in Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, and Missouri. 3/ Monthly weighted U.S. average price for other spring wheat. 4/ Average price of all wheat in Washington, Oregon, and Idaho. Source: Agricultural Prices, NASS, USDA. Regional prices are ERS estimates the average price received by farmers in major production States. Table 7--Wheat: Average cash grain bids at selected markets ($/bu.), 9/14/00 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | KC HRW #1 | KC HRW #1 | Portland | FOB Gulf Month | ordinary | 13% protein | #1 HRW Ord. | $/mt (#2 HRW) | 99/00 00/01 | 99/00 00/01 | 99/00 00/01 | 99/00 00/01 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ June | 2.93 3.07 | 3.22 3.59 | 3.10 3.19 | 110.60 115.66 July | 2.68 2.97 | 3.39 3.25 | 2.83 3.05 | 101.04 114.60 August | 2.85 2.89 | 3.42 3.13 | 3.00 2.98 | 109.86 112.10 September | 2.92 . | 3.52 . | 3.12 . | 113.17 . October | 2.80 . | 3.40 . | 2.97 . | 107.29 . November | 2.89 . | 3.54 . | 2.98 . | 108.76 . December | 2.81 . | 3.44 . | 2.84 . | 102.88 . January | 2.90 . | 3.46 . | 2.95 . | 106.17 . February | 2.94 . | 3.37 . | 3.01 . | 109.69 . March | 2.91 . | 3.29 . | 2.95 . | 107.22 . April | 2.84 . | 3.30 . | 2.93 . | 106.17 . May | 2.95 . | 3.52 . | 3.07 . | 111.50 . ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | Minneapolis | Minneapolis | Minneapolis | Minneapolis Month | DNS 13% prot. | DNS 14% prot. | DNS 15% prot. | #1 HAD milling | 99/00 00/01 | 99/00 00/01 | 99/00 00/01 | 99/00 00/01 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ June | 3.65 3.50 | 3.73 3.78 | 4.03 4.08 | N/Q 4.07 July | 3.46 3.24 | 3.68 3.50 | 4.02 3.91 | 3.92 3.85 August | 3.29 2.99 | 3.58 3.29 | 4.10 3.73 | 3.73 3.62 September | 3.32 . | 3.55 . | 4.07 . | 4.14 . October | 3.23 . | 3.70 . | 4.17 . | 4.46 . November | 3.42 . | 3.78 . | 4.22 . | 4.80 . December | 3.38 . | 3.64 . | 3.89 . | N/Q . January | 3.19 . | 3.37 . | 3.99 . | N/Q . February | 3.37 . | 3.59 . | 3.94 . | 4.40 . March | 3.44 . | 3.65 . | 3.95 . | N/Q . April | 3.50 . | 3.69 . | 4.06 . | 4.11 . May | 3.50 . | 3.80 . | 4.15 . | 4.25 . ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | St. Louis | Chicago | Toledo | Portland Month | #2 soft red | #2 soft red | #2 soft red | #1 soft white | 99/00 00/01 | 99/00 00/01 | 99/00 00/01 | 99/00 00/01 ------ ----------------------------------------------------------------------- - June | 2.31 2.59 | 2.20 2.41 | 2.18 2.27 | 3.17 2.92 July | N/Q 2.17 | 1.94 2.14 | 2.02 2.06 | 3.06 2.78 August | 2.22 2.04 | 2.09 2.08 | 2.24 2.00 | 3.14 2.65 September | 2.48 . | 2.12 . | 2.23 . | 3.25 . October | 2.31 . | 1.98 . | 2.12 . | 3.24 . November | 2.50 . | 1.96 . | 2.06 . | 3.09 . December | 2.26 . | 2.12 . | 2.00 . | 2.83 . January | 2.38 . | 2.34 . | 2.23 . | 2.91 . February | 2.51 . | 2.38 . | 2.26 . | 2.88 . March | 2.40 . | 2.34 . | 2.17 . | 2.84 . April | 2.38 . | 2.30 . | 2.11 . | 2.89 . May | 2.56 . | 2.45 . | 2.28 . | 2.97 . ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- N/Q-no quote. Source: Grain and Feed Weekly Summary and Statistics, AMS, USDA. Table 8--Wheat: U.S. exports and imports for last 6 months, 9/14/00 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Exports, (1,000 bu.) 1999/2000 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Item 1/ | January February March April May June ------------- ---------------------------------------------------------------- - Wheat grain | 71,763 64,198 68,836 73,815 87,789 88,581 Wheat flour | 2,924 6,108 2,615 3,193 1,286 3,620 Products | 322 302 287 250 678 438 Total | 75,010 70,608 71,738 77,258 89,754 92,639 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Imports, (1,000 bu.) 1999/2000 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Item 1/ | January February March April May June -------------|--------------------------------------------------------------- - Wheat grain | 3,273 5,823 6,550 6,623 6,134 5,819 Wheat flour | 561 577 634 535 632 680 Products | 1,235 1,191 1,470 1,108 1,328 1,130 Total | 5,069 7,591 8,653 8,267 8,093 7,629 ------------------------------------------- ---------------------------------- Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Census. 1/ Wheat flour and products converted to wheat grain equivalent. Totals may not add due to rounding. Table 9--Wheat: U.S. exports, Census and Export Sales comparison, 9/14/00 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | 1998/99 | 1999/2000 | 2000/01 (as of 08/31/00) Importing |-----------------------------------|-------------------------- country | | Ship- |Outstanding| Total | Shipments | ments | sales | ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Data | | Export | | Export | Export Source | Census | sales | Census | sales | Sales ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | 1,000 metric tons Country: | Egypt | 4,516 | 4,516 | 3,923 | 4,168 | 1,513 753 2,266 Japan | 3,055 | 3,201 | 3,172 | 3,122 | 578 455 1,033 Philippines | 1,682 | 1,749 | 2,126 | 2,175 | 484 346 830 Mexico | 1,733 | 1,860 | 1,832 | 1,963 | 518 140 658 S. Korea | 1,532 | 1,366 | 1,670 | 1,475 | 339 235 574 EU | 1,421 | 1,407 | 1,330 | 1,300 | 461 256 717 Nigeria | 1,238 | 1,300 | 1,127 | 1,300 | 393 195 588 Taiwan | 889 | 920 | 983 | 1,005 | 303 80 383 Israel | 716 | 734 | 820 | 917 | 194 111 305 Colombia | 535 | 509 | 779 | 726 | 186 73 259 Total grain | 27,402 | 25,555 | 28,047 | 25,453 | 6,809 4,059 10,868 Total(incl) | | | | | products) | 28,209 | 25,648 | 29,158 | 25,500 | 6,816 4,069 10,885 USDA forecast | | | | | of Census | | | | | 30,617 ----------------------------------------------------- ------------------------ 1/Export sales and shipments from USDA s weekly U.S. Export Sales report. END_OF_FILE