WHEAT OUTLOOK November 14, 2000 November 2000, WHS-1100 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WHEAT OUTLOOK is issued 11 times a year by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. Electronic release only; no published copies are available. WHEAT OUTLOOK is supplemented by an annual WHEAT YEARBOOK. The yearbook summary for 2000 was released on March 27, 2000. Yearbooks are available in print from ERS-NASS Order Desk. For the 2000 issue, call 1-800-999-6779 (703-605-6220) and ask for stock #ERS-WHS-2000, $21. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Highlights -- U.S. Wheat Supply Projection Reduced From Last Month -- Hard Red Spring and Durum Production Estimates Revised -- Export Forecast by Class Revised -- Price Range Adjusted as Weather Keeps Markets on Edge -- Weather Adversely Affected the Quality of the Durum Crop -- The Quality of the Hard Red Spring Crop Is Improved in 2000 -- A Review of Kansas Wheat Quality -- Loan Deficiency Payments Support Wheat Farmers Income -- World Wheat Trade Boosted For 1999/2000 and 2000/01 -- U.S. Export Forecast Reduced Because of the Slow Pace to Date U.S. Wheat Supply Projection Reduced From Last Month U.S. wheat production is forecast at 2,223 million bushels in 2000, down 16 million from the earlier forecast released in the Small Grains 2000 Summary on September 29, 2000. The U.S. wheat yield is forecast at 41.9 bushels per acre, down 0.2 bushel from last month and 1.3 bushels below the record established in 1998. Imports are forecast at 95 million bushels, down 5 million from last month. Downward adjustments were made for hard red spring (HRS) wheat imports of 3 million and 2 million for durum. The U.S. wheat supply in 2000/01 is now forecast at 3,268 million bushels, down 21 million from last month and 71 million below 1999/2000. Hard Red Spring and Durum Production Estimates Revised The 1999 production season ended with cool, wet conditions hampering harvest progress in certain locations of North Dakota. In North Dakota, only 48 percent of the durum acres were harvested as of September 3. Also on that date only 82 percent of the other spring wheat area had been harvested in the State. The weather-related harvest delays in North Dakota led the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) to update projections of harvested acres, yield, and production for small grains (oats, barley, and wheat) in North Dakota. The wheat revisions affected both HRS and durum. For durum, the harvested area in North Dakota was reduced by 100,000 acres to 2.9 million, and the estimated yield was reduced 1 bushel per acre from the previous estimate. These changes reduced production by 5.7 million bushels. U.S. durum production is now projected at 109.8 million bushels, down 5.7 million from the previous estimate. The wet conditions in September also affected the harvest of the hard red spring wheat crop in North Dakota. Harvested acreage in the State was reduced 100,000 acres, and average yield is down 1 bushel per acre. These changes caused a drop in North Dakota and U.S. production of HRS by 10.1 million bushels. The North Dakota production changes lowered the U.S. HRS yield by 0.4 bushel. NASS included unharvested grain in the field in the September 1 on-farm stocks estimates that were reported in the Grain Stocks report. Consequently, the production revisions in North Dakota required adjustments in the estimates of September 1 stocks of all wheat and durum. The original estimates were revised downward by 15 million bushels for all wheat, including 6 million bushels for HRS and durum. Export Forecast by Class Revised Total U.S. exports are forecast at 1,100 million bushels, down 25 million from last month. Domestic use is unchanged this month. The drop in the export forecast more than offset the decline in production and imports, and ending stocks are now forecast to hit 892 million bushels, up 4 million from a month earlier but 58 million below last year. Export projections for all classes of wheat were revised this month based on the pace of exports to date and outstanding sales. Reductions were made for hard red winter (HRW), down 20 million; hard red spring (HRS), down 15 million; and soft red winter (SRW), down 5 million. Export projections for white and durum wheat were increased 10 million and 5 million, respectively. Price Range Adjusted as Weather Keeps Markets on Edge Wheat prices were under significant pressure during the harvest season due to the large supplies and slow export pace. Ending stocks are still projected to be large next spring, but weather problems have plagued the Southern Plains during the fall of 2000. The planting delays have kept cash and futures markets on edge recently, and the preliminary farm price for all wheat was up to $2.70 per bushel in October, 26 cents above the September farm price. The season-average price received by farmers is now projected between $2.45 and $2.75 per bushel, up 10 cents on the low end of the range from a month earlier. Concerns about dry conditions in the hard red winter growing region have provided some strength to wheat futures prices in recent weeks. The earlier drought conditions were replaced by heavy rainfall and flooding at some locations during late October and early November. For the week ending on November 5, wheat seeding in Oklahoma advanced only 2 percentage points. Only 1.5 days were suitable for fieldwork during the previous week because of the wet conditions. Oklahoma reported that only 63 percent of the crop had been seeded on that date, well below the 5-year average of 95 percent. Emergence of the crop in Oklahoma, pegged at 56 percent, is 21 points behind the average. In Texas, 78 percent of the crop had been seeded (10 points below the average), and only 53 percent of the intended acreage had emerged (20 points below the average). The wet conditions caused further planting delays, but the increased soil moisture enhanced the emergence of previously planted fields. The condition of the wheat acreage that has emerged is rated better than last year at this time. The latest State Crop and Weather Bulletin indicates that only 85 percent of the winter wheat crop in the 18 States covered by the report was seeded by November 5, 8 points below average for that date. Nationwide, only 72 percent of the crop had emerged as of that date. Weather Adversely Affected the Quality of the Durum Crop The delayed harvest at many locations added variability to the quality of the durum crops in the Northern Plains. Earlier reports indicated that the adverse weather caused widespread bleaching and lower falling numbers (indicative of sprout damage) in mature durum. Falling number is a technical measure of the number of seconds bread dough made from a milled sample of the wheat rises before it begins to fall. The 2000 Regional Crop Quality Report for durum wheat released by the North Dakota Wheat Commission (http://www.ndwheat.com) reflected results of testing and analysis of 248 randomly collected samples from individual farms and country elevators in major durum growing areas in North Dakota and Montana. The samples were collected by the North Dakota Agricultural Statistics Service and analyzed by the North Dakota State University Cereal Science Department. The average protein content of the durum crop is strong in 2000 with an estimated regional average of 14.3 percent, 0.5 percent above last year and the 5-year average of 13.8 percent. Average test weight in 2000 is estimated at 58.8 pounds per bushel, 1 pound below 1999 and the 5 year average. The average falling number for the 2000 durum crop is 216 seconds, down from the disappointing 250 seconds reported for 1999 and significantly below the 5-year average of 336. Only 58 percent of the regional durum samples inspected graded Hard Amber Durum (HAD). To grade HAD the sample must contain 75 percent or more of hard and vitreous kernels of amber color. An estimated 4 percent of the samples inspected graded No. 2 Amber Durum (AD) or better. To grade AD the sample must contain 60 percent or more but less than 75 percent of hard and vitreous kernels of amber color. Another 12 percent of the samples graded U.S. No. 3-5 AD, and 26 percent of the samples were of lower qualities. The report stated: AIf a buyer combines a specification for 2HAD or better with a specification for a falling number of 250 or greater, 39 percent or 38 million bushels (1.0 million metric tons) of the crop meet these minimums, versus 30 percent or 25 million bushels (0.7 million metric tons) in 1999.@ The limited supply of high quality No. 1 HAD milling has led to an increase in the Minneapolis cash price of that grade from an average of $3.62 per bushel in August to an average of $4.70 in September (see table 7). The price of all durum at the farm level, which is a mix of all qualities sold, actually declined from $2.33 to $2.32 during the same period (see table 5). The Quality of the Hard Red Spring Crop Is Improved in 2000 The 2000 Regional Crop Quality Report for HRS wheat reported the results of testing and analysis of 789 samples randomly collected in the four-State HRS growing region in the Northern Plains (Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Montana). The average protein content of the HRS crop is strong in 2000, with an estimated regional average of 14.4 percent, slightly above last year and 0.3 percent above the 5-year average. The ample protein supply has reduced the price premium for HRS with higher protein levels (see table 7). Average test weight in 2000 is estimated at 60.1 pounds per bushel, 0.8 of a pound above 1999 and 0.3 above the 5-year average. The average falling number for the 2000 crop is 343 seconds, down 4 seconds from last year and below the 5-year average of 383. An estimated 51 percent of the regional HRS crop graded U.S. No. 1 Dark Northern Spring (DNS) in 2000, up significantly from the 28 percent in 1999. An additional 9 percent of the samples graded U.S. No. 2 or 3 DNS, down 0.1 from last year. The subclass DNS is HRS wheat that contains 75 percent or more dark, hard, and vitreous kernels (DHVK). An estimated 21 percent of the samples graded U.S. No. 1 Northern Spring (NS), and an additional 4 percent of the samples graded U.S. No. 2 or 3. The subclass NS is HRS wheat that contains more than 25 percent DHVK but less than 75 percent DHVK. About 15 percent of the samples were of lower qualities. A Review of Kansas Wheat Quality The Kansas Department of Agriculture issued a press release on July 30 reporting on the quality of the 2000 hard red winter wheat crop in Kansas. That release indicated that protein was up and test weight was down in Kansas wheat in 2000 (see the August 2000 issue of the Wheat Outlook report). Preliminary data from 10,270 samples randomly collected from 65 counties showed an average test weight of 59.8 pounds per bushel, compared with an average of 60.25 pounds last year and a 10-year average (1990-99) of 60.0 pounds. Protein averaged 11.9 percent in 2000, compared with 11.5 percent for 1999, and a 10-year average of 11.7 percent. This increase has lowered the premiums paid for lots of HRW and hard red spring (HRS) with higher levels of protein. Millers are expected to blend higher percentages of HRS with the lower protein HRW to produce flours of the desired protein level. Loan Deficiency Payments Support Wheat Farmers Income The 1996 Farm Act contained key policy tools to assist farmers when market prices are low. The key provisions are the non-recourse marketing assistance loans (MALs) and loan deficiency payments (LDPs). Producers that entered into Production Flexibility Contracts with USDA are eligible to participate in these programs. See the October 2000 issue of the Wheat Outlook report for a more detailed discussion of how the program works. As of November 13, 2000, wheat producers had entered 154 million bushels of 2000-crop wheat in loan program. Producers had repaid loans on 63 million bushels, and about 61 million bushels covered by the redeemed loans involved a market gain totaling $32 million. As of that date, eligible wheat producers had also collected $718 million in LDPs covering 1,621 million bushels of 2000-crop wheat or about 70 percent of the 2000 crop. The average payment rate was 44 cents per bushel. About 83 percent of the 1999 crop received an LDP, so participation, measured as a percent of the crop involved, is expected to be smaller this year, especially since market prices have risen above the loan rate recently. World Wheat Trade Boosted For 1999/2000 and 2000/01 World wheat trade forecast for 2000/01 increased by almost 1 million tons this month to 106 million. Israel and Hungary are expected to import some more wheat for feed use. Uzbekistan's forecast imports doubled because of reduced production. Exports were increased 0.5 million tons for Kazakstan, where production estimates came in higher than expected. Production changes also caused export prospects for Argentina to increase by 1 million tons while Australia declined by the same amount. Government decisions to export wheat boosted export forecasts for India and the Czech Republic. India will subsidize exports, so prospects for exports doubled to reach 1 million tons. While wheat trade in 2000/01 is down compared to the previous year, it is more than 1 million tons higher than the average for the decade of the 1990s. Much of the year-to-year decline is because of reduced imports by Russia and Pakistan. Russia received large food aid shipments in 1999/2000, but recently harvested increased wheat production. Pakistan had a record wheat crop. This month's changes in forecast wheat production and consumption were mostly offsetting, and global ending stocks are forecast at 111 million tons, fractionally lower. Global wheat trade during the 1999/2000 trade year is estimated at 109 million tons, up almost 1 million tons from the previous month. Although final trade data are not yet available from the EU, the most recent information indicates that late-season shipments by the EU were larger than expected, boosting EU exports by 1 million tons to 17 million. This more than offset a small decline in Argentina's shipments. Estimated imports were increased for Latin America, Egypt, and Morocco. World trade in 1999/2000 increased by over 6 percent partly because drought boosted imports in the Middle East, with Iran's imports almost tripling. U.S. Export Forecast Reduced Because of the Slow Pace to date U.S. 2000/01 wheat exports are forecast to reach 30 million tons, down 0.5 million from last month's forecast, but still up from a year ago. Increased competition is expected from minor exporters, such as India. Early season inspections were below last year through mid October, but outstanding export sales in early November are above a year ago. Late season exports are expected to increase because of reduced competition from Canada and Australia. The U.S. wheat import forecast was reduced slightly this month because of the slow pace of imports early in 2000/01. Canada's wheat crop is smaller this year, and supplies of premium quality wheat remain tight. Information Contacts: Mack N. Leath (Situation Coordinator) (202) 694-5302 Edward W. Allen (International Analyst) (202) 694-5288 Gary Vocke (Domestic Analyst) (202) 694-5285 Jenny Gonzales (Data Coordinator) (202) 694-5296 Electronic copies are available at: World Wide Website www.ers.usda.gov The next electronic Wheat Outlook report will be issued on December 14, 2000. Table 1--Wheat: U.S. market year supply and disappearance, 10/12/00 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Item 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00E 2000/01P ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Area: Million acres National toal base 88.5 87.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Eff.base/Contract Acres/0,50/92,85 6.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 CRP base retired 10.8 10.6 10.1 9.7 0.0 0.0 Planted 69.0 75.1 70.4 65.8 62.7 62.5 Harvested 61.0 62.8 62.8 59.0 53.8 53.0 Bushels per acre Yield: 35.8 36.3 39.5 43.2 42.7 41.9 Supply: Million bushels Beginning stocks 506.6 376.0 443.6 722.5 945.9 949.7 Production 2,182.7 2,277.4 2,481.5 2,547.3 2,299.0 2,223.4 Imports 1/ 67.9 92.3 94.9 103.0 94.5 95.0 Total supply 2,757.2 2,745.7 3,020.0 3,372.8 3,339.4 3,268.2 Use: Food 882.9 890.7 914.1 909.7 924.7 940.0 Seed 103.5 102.3 92.5 80.5 91.6 86.0 Feed and residual 153.7 307.6 250.5 394.4 283.8 250.0 Total domestic 1,140.1 1,300.6 1,257.1 1,384.7 1,300.1 1,276.0 Exports 1/ 1,241.1 1,001.5 1,040.4 1,042.2 1,089.5 1,100.0 Total use 2,381.2 2,302.1 2,297.5 2,426.9 2,389.7 2,376.0 Ending stocks: 376.0 443.6 722.5 945.9 949.7 892.2 Farmer-owned reserve 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 CCC inventory 2/ 118.0 93.0 94.0 128.0 104.0 105.0 Free stocks 258.0 350.6 628.5 817.9 845.7 787.2 Stocks-to-use ratio 15.8 19.3 31.4 39.0 39.7 37.6 Prices: Dollars per bushel Target price 4.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Loan rate 2.58 2.58 2.58 2.58 2.58 2.58 Contract rate 3/ 0.00 0.87 0.63 0.66 0.64 0.59 Ave. farm price 4.55 4.30 3.38 2.65 2.48 2.45-2.75 Million dollars Contract pmts. 3/ 100 1,941 1,412 2,718 3,830 3,454 Market value of production 9,787 9,782 8,287 6,781 5,702 5,781 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Source: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, WAOB, USDA. Totals may not add due to rounding. E=Estimated, P=Projected, N.A.=not applicable. 1/ Imports and exports include flour and other products expressed in wheat equivalent. 2/ Includes Food Security Reserve. 3/ Deficiency payments prior to 1996/97. Table 2--Wheat: U.S. market year supply and disappearance, 11/14/00 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1999/00E HRW HRS SRW White Durum All wheat ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Area: Million acres Planted 30.75 14.34 9.13 4.45 4.04 62.71 Harvested 24.36 13.79 8.02 4.09 3.57 53.82 Bushels per acre Yield: 43.13 32.49 56.63 60.39 27.83 42.71 Supply: Million bushels Beg. stocks 435.1 233.0 136.0 87.0 54.8 945.9 Production 1,050.7 447.9 454.3 246.8 99.3 2,299.0 Imports 2/ 0.1 59.7 0.0 6.4 28.3 94.5 Total 1486.0 740.6 590.3 340.2 182.4 3,339.4 Utilization: Total domestic 542.4 292.6 287.3 89.2 88.7 1,300.1 Exports 2/ 485.6 230.0 170.0 160.0 43.9 1,089.5 Total 1,028.1 522.6 457.3 249.2 132.6 2,389.7 Ending stocks: 457.9 218.0 133.0 91.0 49.8 949.7 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 2000/01P HRW HRS SRW White Durum All wheat ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Area: Million acres Planted 30.38 14.36 9.51 4.34 3.94 62.53 Harvested 23.56 13.58 8.14 4.18 3.57 53.03 Bushels per acre Yield: 35.82 36.72 57.85 71.85 30.74 41.93 Supply: Million bushels Beg. stocks 457.9 218.0 133.0 91.0 49.8 949.7 Production 843.7 498.5 470.9 300.6 109.8 2,223.4 Imports 2/ 1.0 59.0 0.0 7.0 28.0 95.0 Total 1,302.6 775.5 603.9 398.6 187.6 3,268.2 Utilization: Total domestic 504.0 297.0 273.0 106.0 96.0 1,276.0 Exports 2/ 435.0 235.0 195.0 185.0 50.0 1,100.0 Total 939.0 532.0 468.0 291.0 146.0 2,376.0 Ending stocks: 363.6 243.5 135.9 107.6 41.6 892.2 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Source: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, WAOB, USDA. Totals may not add due to rounding. E=Estimated, P=Projected. 1/ ERS estimates of area, yield, and domestic use. 2/ Imports and exports include flour and other products expressed in wheat equivalent. Table 3--Wheat: Quarterly supply and disappearance (1,000 bu.), 11/14/00 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Market Produc- Imports Supply Food Seed Feed Exports Ending Year tion 2/ 2/ stocks ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Million bushels 1998/99: Jun-Aug 2,547 24 3,294 226 1 425 257 2,385 Sep-Nov --- 24 2,409 241 55 (74) 292 1,896 Dec-Feb --- 28 1,923 213 1 12 247 1,450 Mar-May --- 27 1,477 230 23 32 246 946 Mkt. year 2,547 103 3,373 910 81 394 1,042 946 1999/00 E: Jun-Aug 2,299 31 3,276 230 6 270 324 2,445 Sep-Nov --- 19 2,465 241 55 (8) 291 1,886 Dec-Feb --- 19 1,905 221 2 31 236 1,415 Mar-May --- 25 1,440 232 28 (9) 239 950 Mkt. year 2,299 95 3,339 925 92 284 1,090 950 2000/01 P: Jun-Aug 2,223 20 3,194 232 1 324 286 2,351 Sep-Nov --- Dec-Feb --- Mar-May --- Mkt. year 2,223 95 3,268 940 86 250 1,100 892 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Totals might not add due to rounding. E=Estimated, P=Projected. 1/ Imports and exports include flour and selected products expressed in wheat equivalent. Table 4--Monthly food use estimates for last 12 months, (1,000 bu.), 11/14/00 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Item | September October November December January February ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Mill grind + | 78,235 84,807 81,174 76,194 73,294 72,712 Food imports 1/ + | 1,576 1,830 1,939 2,066 1,795 1,763 Non-flour | food use 2/ + | 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 Food exports 1/ - | 6,904 4,950 2,607 3,269 3,245 6,409 Food use = | 74,907 83,367 82,506 76,991 73,884 70,067 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Item | March April May June July August ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Mill grind + | 77,144 74,727 76,406 73,101 N.A. N.A. Food imports 1/ + | 2,098 1,643 1,958 1,809 1,846 2,051 Non-flour | food use 2/ + | 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 Food exports 1/ - | 2,807 3,443 1,494 3,834 4,067 1,902 Food use = | 78,434 74,927 78,870 73,076 N.A. N.A. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Wheat flour and products converted to wheat grain equivalent. 2/ ERS estimate of cereal use. N.A.=Not available. Totals may not add due to rounding. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Census. Table 5--Wheat: National average price received by farmers ($/bu.), 11/14/00 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | ------------------------ Farm prices ------------------------ Month | All wheat | Winter | Durum | Other spring | 99/00 00/01 | 99/00 00/01 | 99/00 00/01 | 99/00 00/01 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ June | 2.50 2.50 | 2.32 2.43 | 2.93 2.71 | 3.01 2.90 July | 2.22 2.32 | 2.12 2.23 | 2.89 2.90 | 2.93 2.74 August | 2.53 2.41 | 2.35 2.31 | 2.76 2.33 | 2.86 2.59 September | 2.58 2.44 | 2 46 2.37 | 2.29 2.32 | 2.86 2.59 October 1/ | 2.57 2.70 | 2.47 2.66 | 2.30 2.61 | 2.79 2.78 November | 2.66 . | 2.42 . | 2.64 . | 2.94 . December | 2.52 . | 2.27 . | 2.96 . | 2.87 . January | 2.51 . | 2.32 . | 2.90 . | 2.82 . February | 2.54 . | 2.37 . | 2.88 . | 2.82 . March | 2.59 . | 2.37 . | 2.63 . | 2.85 . April | 2.57 . | 2.32 . | 2.89 . | 2.89 . May | 2.59 . | 2.44 . | 3.02 . | 2.92 . ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Preliminary mid-month weighted average price for current month of the 2000/01 marketing year. 2/ Simple average of monthly prices. Source: Agricultural Prices, National Agricultural Statistics Service, USDA. Table 6-- Wheat by class: Price received by farmers, 9/14/00 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | -------------------- Regional farm prices -------------------- | Hard Winter | Soft Winter | Hard Spring | Soft White Month So. Plains 1/ | Corn Belt 2/ | No. Plains 3/ | Northwest 4/ | 99/00 00/01 | 99/00 00/01 | 99/00 00/01 | 99/00 00/01 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Dollars per bushel June | 2.35 2.52 | 2.11 2.24 | 3.01 2.88 | 2.86 2.50 July | 2.15 2.40 | 1.97 1.99 | 2.93 2.74 | 2.73 2.57 August | 2.26 2.35 | 2.12 1.95 | 2.86 2.59 | 2.82 2.38 September | 2.33 2.54 | 2.14 2.03 | 2.86 2.59 | 2.84 2.43 October 5/ | 2.16 2.78 | 2.11 2.16 | 2.80 2.78 | 2.80 2.49 November | 2.14 . | 2.10 . | 2.95 . | 2.82 . December | 2.06 . | 2.11 . | 2.87 . | 2.68 . January | 2.24 . | 2.22 . | 2.80 . | 2.72 . February | 2.29 . | 2.33 . | 2.82 . | 2.55 . March | 2.34 . | 2.23 . | 2.85 . | 2.61 . April | 2.23 . | 2.14 . | 2.89 . | 2.58 . May | 2.39 . | 2.19 . | 2.92 . | 2.65 . ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Average price of winter wheat in Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma, and Texas. 2/ Average price of winter wheat in Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, and Missouri. 3/ Monthly weighted U.S. average price for other spring wheat. 4/ Average price of all wheat in Washington, Oregon, and Idaho. 5/ Average of preliminary mid-month prices for current month of the 2000/01 marketing year. Source: Agricultural Prices, NASS, USDA. Regional prices are ERS estimates Table 7--Wheat: Average cash grain bids at selected markets ($/bu.), 11/14/00 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | KC HRW #1 | KC HRW #1 | Portland | FOB Gulf Month | ordinary | 13% protein | #1 HRW Ord. | $/mt (#2 HRW) | 99/00 00/01 | 99/00 00/01 | 99/00 00/01 | 99/00 00/01 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ June | 2.93 3.07 | 3.22 3.59 | 3.10 3.19 | 110.60 115.66 July | 2.68 2.97 | 3.39 3.25 | 2.83 3.05 | 101.04 114.60 August | 2.85 2.89 | 3.42 3.13 | 3.00 2.98 | 109.86 112.10 September | 2.92 3.13 | 3.52 3.32 | 3.12 3.26 | 113.17 121.49 October | 2.80 . | 3.40 . | 2.97 . | 107.29 130.88 November | 2.89 . | 3.54 . | 2.98 . | 108.76 . December | 2.81 . | 3.44 . | 2.84 . | 102.88 . January | 2.90 . | 3.46 . | 2.95 . | 106.17 . February | 2.94 . | 3.37 . | 3.01 . | 109.69 . March | 2.91 . | 3.29 . | 2.95 . | 107.22 . April | 2.84 . | 3.30 . | 2.93 . | 106.17 . May | 2.95 . | 3.52 . | 3.07 . | 111.50 . ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | Minneapolis | Minneapolis | Minneapolis | Minneapolis Month | DNS 13% prot. | DNS 14% prot. | DNS 15% prot. | #1 HAD milling | 99/00 00/01 | 99/00 00/01 | 99/00 00/01 | 99/00 00/01 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ June | 3.65 3.50 | 3.73 3.78 | 4.03 4.08 | N/Q 4.07 July | 3.46 3.24 | 3.68 3.50 | 4.02 3.91 | 3.92 3.85 August | 3.29 2.99 | 3.58 3.29 | 4.10 3.73 | 3.73 3.62 September | 3.32 3.10 | 3.55 3.17 | 4.07 3.37 | 4.14 4.70 October | 3.23 . | 3.70 . | 4.17 . | 4.46 . November | 3.42 . | 3.78 . | 4.22 . | 4.80 . December | 3.38 . | 3.64 . | 3.89 . | N/Q . January | 3.19 . | 3.37 . | 3.99 . | N/Q . February | 3.37 . | 3.59 . | 3.94 . | 4.40 . March | 3.44 . | 3.65 . | 3.95 . | N/Q . April | 3.50 . | 3.69 . | 4.06 . | 4.11 . May | 3.50 . | 3.80 . | 4.15 . | 4.25 . ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | St. Louis | Chicago | Toledo | Portland Month | #2 soft red | #2 soft red | #2 soft red | #1 soft white | 99/00 00/01 | 99/00 00/01 | 99/00 00/01 | 99/00 00/01 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ June | 2.31 2.59 | 2.20 2.41 | 2.18 2.27 | 3.17 2.92 July | N/Q 2.17 | 1.94 2.14 | 2.02 2.06 | 3.06 2.78 August | 2.22 2.04 | 2.09 2.08 | 2.24 2.00 | 3.14 2.65 September | 2.48 2.06 | 2.12 2.13 | 2.23 1.98 | 3.25 2.78 October | 2.31 . | 1.98 . | 2.12 . | 3.24 . November | 2.50 . | 1.96 . | 2.06 . | 3.09 . December | 2.26 . | 2.12 . | 2.00 . | 2.83 . January | 2.38 . | 2.34 . | 2.23 . | 2.91 . February | 2.51 . | 2.38 . | 2.26 . | 2.88 . March | 2.40 . | 2.34 . | 2.17 . | 2.84 . April | 2.38 . | 2.30 . | 2.11 . | 2.89 . May | 2.56 . | 2.45 . | 2.28 . | 2.97 . ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- N/Q-no quote. Source: Grain and Feed Weekly Summary and Statistics, AMS, USDA. Table 8--Wheat: U.S. exports and imports for last 6 months, 11/14/00 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Exports, (1,000 bu.) 1999/2000 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Item 1/ | March April May June July August ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Wheat grain | 68,836 73,815 87,789 88,581 82,739 104,944 Wheat flour | 2,615 3,193 1,286 3,620 3,805 1,623 Products | 287 250 678 438 271 291 Total | 71,738 77,258 89,754 92,639 86,814 106,859 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Imports, (1,000 bu.) 1999/2000 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Item 1/ | March April May June July August -------------|---------------------------------------------------------------- Wheat grain | 6,550 6,623 6,134 5,819 5,971 2,878 Wheat flour | 634 535 632 680 639 751 Products | 1,470 1,108 1,328 1,130 1,208 1,302 Total | 8,653 8,267 8,093 7,629 7,818 4,931 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Census. 1/ Wheat flour and products converted to wheat grain equivalent. Totals may not add due to rounding. Table 9--Wheat: U.S. exports, Census and Export Sales comparison, 11/14/00 1/ - ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- | 1998/99 | 1999/2000 | 2000/01 (as of 10/05/00) Importing |-----------------------------------|-------------------------- country | | Ship- |Outstanding| Total | Shipments | ments | sales | ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Data | | Export | | Export | Export Source | Census | sales | Census | sales | Sales ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | 1,000 metric tons Country: | Egypt | 4,516 | 4,516 | 3,923 | 4,168 | 2,690 345 3,035 Japan | 3,055 | 3,201 | 3,172 | 3,122 | 1,019 632 1,651 Philippines | 1,682 | 1,749 | 2,126 | 2,175 | 830 223 1,053 Mexico | 1,733 | 1,860 | 1,832 | 1,963 | 765 199 964 S. Korea | 1,532 | 1,366 | 1,670 | 1,475 | 561 281 842 EU | 1,421 | 1,407 | 1,330 | 1,300 | 747 131 878 Nigeria | 1,238 | 1,300 | 1,127 | 1,300 | 633 141 774 Taiwan | 889 | 920 | 983 | 1,005 | 387 158 545 Israel | 716 | 734 | 820 | 917 | 370 78 448 Colombia | 535 | 509 | 779 | 726 | 273 53 326 Total grain | 27,402 | 25,555 | 28,047 | 25,453 | 11,681 3,457 15,138 Total(incl) | | | | | products) | 28,209 | 25,648 | 29,158 | 25,500 | 11,694 3,462 15,156 USDA forecast | | | | | of Census | | | | | 29,937 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/Export sales and shipments from USDAs weekly U.S. Export Sales report. ERS on the World Wide Web Coming soon-- A newly designed, newly structured ERS website ERS' newly redesigned and restructured website will provide you with accurate, timely, comprehensive, easy-to-find economic analysis on issues related to agriculture, food, the environment, and rural development. Its going to be greatly expanded-- including 19 commodity Briefing Rooms, 12 country Briefing Rooms, and a host of issue-oriented Briefing Rooms covering issues ranging from analysis of the World Trade Organization (WTO) to topics such as risk management, farm structure, and conservation and environmental policies. Powerful new interface design Packed with information, products, and services--yet clean, crisp, and easy to navigate User-friendly site structure Navigate by topic, research-area emphasis, Briefing Rooms, publications, or data. Or, browse our features and services. Enhanced search feature Users may search by key topic or by using an advanced search feature. Synthesis of the extensive research Briefing Rooms will provide a synthesis of the issues and analysis, along with a full collection of resources specific to a subject, including: Latest publications Latest data products Recommended readings and data products Recent research developments Questions and answers Newsletters Related links Maps and charts gallery Economic models A host of new services Users will be able to contact ERS experts, see upcoming events/publications, find ERS research related to whats in the news, and subscribe to E-mail updates. And more! Come visit us after the new year and see for yourself! Bookmark www.ers.usda.gov WHEAT OUTLOOK, WHS-1100, ERS Page 5 Wheat Outlook, WHS-1000, ERS, November 14, 2000 Page 12 END_OF_FILE