WHEAT OUTLOOK February 12, 2001 February 2001, WHS-0201 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WHEAT OUTLOOK is issued 11 times a year by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. Electronic release only; no published copies are available. WHEAT OUTLOOK is supplemented by an annual WHEAT YEARBOOK. The yearbook summary for 2001 will be released on March 27, 2001. Yearbooks are available in print from ERS-NASS Order Desk. For the 2001 issue, call 1-800-999-6779 (703-605-6220) and ask for stock #ERS-WHS-2001, $21. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Highlights -- Ending Stocks Up from Last Month, Exports Down -- Weather in Plains is a Continuing Concern for 2001/02 Crop -- U.S. Wheat Export Forecast Reduced This Month, Shipments Slower Than Expected -- Global 2000/01 Ending Wheat Stocks Forecast Down, 1999/2000 Trade and Consumption Increased Ending Stocks Up from Last Month, Exports Down U.S. ending stocks for 2000/01, at 839 million bushels, are up 25 million bushels from last month because of lower projected exports. However, ending stocks for 2000/2001 are still well below 1999/2000. Projected exports for 2000/01 were lowered 25 million bushels to 1,100 million because of lagging shipments to date and continued strong competition. Export projections for hard red winter (HRW), hard red spring (HRS), and soft red winter (SRW) wheat were reduced this month, reflecting the sluggish export pace for those classes. HRW exports are projected at 430 million bushels, down 11 percent from last year and down 10 million from last month. HRS exports are projected at 235 million bushels, down 10 million from last month. SRW exports are now projected at 185 million, down 5 million from last month. Projected exports of white wheat and durum are unchanged. Weather in Plains is a Continuing Concern for 2001/02 Crop The last two months of 2000 were one of the coldest November-December periods on record. By the middle of January, 2000 above-normal temperatures prevailed in many areas of the Great Plains. With little additional snowfall and daily temperatures above freezing, snow cover diminished over most of the winter wheat fields in the central and northern Great Plains. Most winter wheat fields remained dormant on the Texas High Plains due to continued cool, damp weather. State Agricultural Statistical Services provide information about the wheat crop in the central and southern Plains, where weather concerns continue. In Texas, the wheat crop was rated 23 percent good to excellent, 52 percent fair, and 25 percent was poor to very poor as of February 4, 2001. The crop's rating has changed slightly at both ends of the range from January 7 when 26 percent of the crop was rated good to excellent and 29 percent was rated poor to very poor. Snow, rain, ice, and high winds kept growing conditions unfavorable across the Plains. Freeze damage was significant in some northern locations, especially on newly emerged seedlings. In Oklahoma, the wheat crop was rated 13 percent good to excellent, 39 percent fair, and 48 percent poor to very poor as of January 31, 2001. The crop's rating has dropped some from December 31, 2000, when 20 percent of the crop was rated good to excellent and 42 percent of the crop was rated poor to very poor. Much of the late-planted wheat has been growing slowly due to the prolonged cold weather. Some of the wheat that had been dusted in have problems with cheat and rye growth. In Nebraska, the wheat crop was rated 36 percent good to excellent, 46 percent fair, and 18 percent poor to very poor as of January 31, 2001. The crop's rating has dropped some from December 31, 2000, when 38 percent of the crop was rated good to excellent and 11 percent of the crop was rated poor to very poor. In Kansas, the wheat crop was rated 41 percent good to excellent, 30 percent fair, and 29 percent poor to very poor as of January 31, 2001. The crop's rating has dropped some from December 31, 2000, when 47 percent of the crop was rated good to excellent and 20 percent of the crop was rated poor to very poor. Wheat crop conditions were affected by wind and freeze damage. U.S. Wheat Export Forecast Reduced This Month, Shipments Slower Than Expected U.S. wheat exports in 2000/01 (July/June) are forecast down 0.5 million tons this month at 30 million tons (down 25 million bushels to 1.1 billion for June/May). The projection was reduced because shipments have been slower than expected and competition is expected to remain intense throughout the year. According to grain inspections, wheat shipments through February 1, 2001, were down 7 percent from the previous year. However, according to U.S. Export Sales, as of February 1, outstanding sales were up by more than a million tons compared with a year ago, an increase of 37 percent. U.S. wheat exports for the rest of 2000/01 are expected to be significantly higher than a year ago, causing exports to increase slightly for the year, but that increase will not be as great as previously forecast. Australia's wheat production forecast increased 1 million tons this month based on stronger-than-expected deliveries by farmers to elevators. Although the crop is down significantly from the previous year because of drought in Western Australia and too much rain in some of the other regions, the preliminary harvest results indicate that the damage was somewhat less than expected. Australia's October/September local marketing year export forecast increased 0.5 million tons, meaning more competition for the 2001/02 U.S. crop. The import forecast for China is down 0.5 million tons from last month. Despite a much smaller wheat crop in 2000, China has not boosted purchases on the international market as previously expected, choosing to use stocks instead. Also, India's export forecast increased 200,000 tons to 1.2 million tons because the government decided to continue to subsidize wheat exports from large stocks beyond the end of their April/March marketing year. Global 2000/01 Ending Wheat Stocks Forecast Down, 1999/2000 Trade and Consumption Increased World wheat ending stocks forecast for 2000/01 were reduced 1 million tons this month to 109 million, despite the month-to-month increase in expected U.S. stocks. Forecast 2000/01 ending stocks declined this month mostly because revisions to 1999/2000 supply-and-demand reduced 2000/01 beginning stocks, especially for the European Union (EU). Revisions based on preliminary trade data boosted estimated 1999/2000 global trade to over 112 million tons (not including intra-EU trade). This is an increase of more than 10 percent from the year before and the largest increase since 1987/88. This month, estimated 1999/2000 trade increased more than 1 million tons. Flour data boosted Kazakstan's exports by over 0.5 million tons and Japan's exports by over 0.2 million. Bulgaria's wheat exports were reportedly 340,000 tons larger than previously estimated. Numerous import estimates were adjusted this month. The largest import revisions included increases of 600,000 tons for Belarus, 311,000 for India, 226,000 for EU, and 166,000 for Hong Kong. This was only partly offset by declines of 400,000 for Russia and 292,000 for Bulgaria. Increases in estimated imports were more numerous and larger than decreases, boosting estimated global trade. The increase in estimated trade contributed to larger 1999/2000 consumption this month. World wheat consumption is estimated at 599 million tons, up almost 2 million from last month, and a modest 1.5-percent increase from the previous year. With no change in production estimated for 1999/2000, the increased consumption reduced ending stocks, tightening supplies for 2000/01. ============================================================================== Information Contacts: Gary Vocke (Situation Coordinator) (202) 694-5285 Edward W. Allen (International Analyst) (202) 694-5288 Electronic copies are available at: World Wide Website www.ers.usda.gov The next electronic Wheat Outlook report will be issued on April 12, 2001. ============================================================================== ERS on the World Wide Web Introduced in January: A newly designed, newly structured ERS website. ERS' newly redesigned and restructured website will provide you with accurate, timely, comprehensive, easy-to-find economic analysis on issues related to agriculture, food, the environment, and rural development. It's been greatly expanded--including 19 commodity Briefing Rooms, 12 country Briefing Rooms, and a host of issue-oriented Briefing Rooms covering issues ranging from analysis of the World Trade Organization (WTO) to topics such as risk management, farm structure, and conservation and environmental policies. 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Bookmark www.ers.usda.gov Table 1--Wheat: U.S. market year supply and disappearance, 1/16/01 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Item 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00E 2000/01P ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Area: Million acres National total base acres 88.5 87.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Eff.base/Contract acres 1/ 77.7 76.7 76.7 78.9 79.0 79.0 0,50/92,85 program acres 6.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 CRP base retired 10.8 10.6 10.1 9.7 0.0 0.0 Planted 69.0 75.1 70.4 65.8 62.7 62.5 Harvested 61.0 62.8 62.8 59.0 53.8 53.0 Bushels per acre Yield: 35.8 36.3 39.5 43.2 42.7 41.9 Supply: Million bushels Beginning stocks 506.6 376.0 443.6 722.5 945.9 949.7 Production 2,182.7 2,277.4 2,481.5 2,547.3 2,299.0 2,223.4 Imports 2/ 67.9 92.3 94.9 103.0 94.5 95.0 Total supply 2,757.2 2,745.7 3,020.0 3,372.8 3,339.4 3,268.2 Use: Food 882.9 890.7 914.1 909.7 924.7 945.0 Seed 103.5 102.3 92.5 80.5 91.6 84.0 Feed and residual 153.7 307.6 250.5 394.4 283.8 300.0 Total domestic 1,140.1 1,300.6 1,257.1 1,384.7 1,300.1 1,329.0 Exports 2/ 1,241.1 1,001.5 1,040.4 1,042.2 1,089.5 1,100.0 Total use 2,381.2 2,302.1 2,297.5 2,426.9 2,389.7 2,429.0 Ending stocks: 376.0 443.6 722.5 945.9 949.7 839.2 Farmer-owned reserve 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 CCC inventory 3/ 118.0 93.0 94.0 128.0 104.0 105.0 Free stocks 258.0 350.6 628.5 817.9 845.7 734.2 Stocks-to-use ratio 15.8 19.3 31.4 39.0 39.7 34.5 Prices: Dollars per bushel Target price 4.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Loan rate 2.58 2.58 2.58 2.58 2.58 2.58 Contract payment rate 4/ 0.00 0.87 0.63 0.66 0.64 0.59 Ave. farm price 4.55 4.30 3.38 2.65 2.48 2.60- 2.70 Million dollars Contract payments 4/ 100 1,941 1,412 2,718 3,830 3,622 Market value of production 9,787 9,782 8,287 6,781 5,702 5,892 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Totals may not add due to rounding. E=Estimated. P=Projected. 1/Prior to 1996/97 - effective base acres; 1996/97 and later - total contract acres. 2/ Imports and exports include flour and other products expressed in wheat grain equivalent units. 3/ Includes Food Security Reserve. 4/ Data are for deficiency payments prior to 1996/97. Source: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, WAOB, USDA Table 2--Wheat: U.S. market year supply and disappearance, 1/16/01 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1999/00E HRW HRS SRW White Durum All wheat ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Area: Million acres Planted 30.75 14.34 9.13 4.45 4.04 62.71 Harvested 24.36 13.79 8.02 4.09 3.57 53.82 Yield: (bu/acre) 43.13 32.49 56.63 60.39 27.83 42.71 Supply: Million bushels Beg. stocks 435.1 233.0 136.0 87.0 54.8 945.9 Production 1,050.7 447.9 454.3 246.8 99.3 2,299.0 Imports 2/ 0.1 59.7 0.0 6.4 28.3 94.5 Total 1486.0 740.6 590.3 340.2 182.4 3339.4 Utilization: Total domestic 542.4 292.6 287.3 89.2 88.7 1,300.1 Exports 2/ 485.6 230.0 170.0 160.0 43.9 1,089.5 Total 1,028.1 522.6 457.3 249.2 132.6 2,389.7 Ending stocks: 457.9 218.0 133.0 91.0 49.8 949.7 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 2000/01P HRW HRS SRW White Durum All wheat ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Area: Million acres Planted 30.38 14.36 9.51 4.34 3.94 62.53 Harvested 23.56 13.58 8.14 4.18 3.57 53.03 Yield: (bu/acre) 35.82 36.71 57.85 71.85 30.76 41.93 Supply: Million bushels Beg. stocks 457.9 218.0 133.0 91.0 49.8 949.7 Production 843.7 498.5 470.9 300.6 109.8 2,223.4 Imports 2/ 1.0 60.0 0.0 6.0 28.0 95.0 Total 1,302.6 776.5 603.9 397.6 187.6 3,268.2 Utilization: Total domestic 502.3 322.0 287.2 116.1 101.4 1,329.0 Exports 2/ 430.0 235.0 185.0 200.0 50.0 1,100.0 Total 932.3 557.0 472.2 316.1 151.4 2,429.0 Ending stocks: 370.3 219.5 131.7 81.5 36.2 839.2 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Totals may not add due to rounding. E=Estimated, P=Projected. 1/ ERS estimates of area, yield, and domestic use. 2/ Imports and exports include flour and other products expressed in wheat equivalent. Source: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, WAOB, USDA Table 3--Wheat: Quarterly supply and disappearance (1,000 bu.), 1/16/01 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Market Produc- Imports Supply Food Seed Feed Exports Ending Year tion 1/ 1/ stocks ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Million bushels 1998/99: Jun-Aug 2,547 24 3,294 226 1 425 257 2,385 Sep-Nov --- 24 2,409 241 55 (74) 292 1,896 Dec-Feb --- 28 1,923 213 1 12 247 1,450 Mar-May --- 27 1,477 230 23 32 246 946 Mkt. year 2,547 103 3,373 910 81 394 1,042 946 1999/00 E: Jun-Aug 2,299 31 3,276 230 6 270 324 2,445 Sep-Nov --- 19 2,465 241 55 (8) 291 1,886 Dec-Feb --- 19 1,905 221 2 31 236 1,415 Mar-May --- 25 1,440 232 28 (9) 239 950 Mkt. year 2,299 95 3,339 925 92 284 1,090 950 2000/01 P: Jun-Aug 2,223 20 3,194 237 1 317 286 2,353 Sep-Nov --- 25 2,378 249 51 (17) 293 1,802 Dec-Feb --- Mar-May --- Mkt. year 2,223 95 3,268 945 84 300 1,100 839 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Totals might not add due to rounding. E=Estimated, P=Projected. 1/ Imports and exports include flour and selected products expressed in wheat equivalent. Table 4--Monthly food use estimates for last 12 months, (1,000 bu.), 1/16/01 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Item | December January February March April May ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Mill grind + | 76,194 73,294 72,712 77,144 74,772 76,451 Food imports 1/ + | 2,066 1,795 1,763 2,098 1,643 1,958 Non-flour | food use 2/ + | 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 Food exports 1/ - | 3,269 3,245 6,409 2,807 3,443 1,494 Food use = | 76,991 73,884 70,067 78,434 74,972 78,916 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Item | May June July August September October ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Mill grind + | 73,145 77,324 84,509 81,262 0 0 Food imports 1/ + | 1,809 1,846 2,051 1,755 1,967 2,130 Non-flour | food use 2/ + | 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 Food exports 1/ - | 3,834 4,067 1,902 3,465 4,442 2,588 Food use = | 73,120 77,103 86,658 81,551 (475) 1,542 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Wheat flour and flour products converted to wheat grain equivalent. 2/ ERS estimate of cereal use. N.A.=Not available. Totals may not add due to rounding. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Census. Table 5--Wheat: National average price received by farmers ($/bu.), 1/16/01 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | ------------------------ Farm prices ------------------------ Month | All wheat | Winter | Durum | Other spring | 99/00 00/01 | 99/00 00/01 | 99/00 00/01 | 99/00 00/01 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ June | 2.50 2.50 | 2.32 2.43 | 2.93 2.71 | 3.01 2.90 July | 2.22 2.32 | 2.12 2.23 | 2.89 2.90 | 2.93 2.74 August | 2.53 2.41 | 2.35 2.31 | 2.76 2.33 | 2.86 2.59 September | 2.58 2.44 | 2 46 2.37 | 2.29 2.32 | 2.86 2.59 October | 2.57 2.68 | 2.47 2.63 | 2.30 2.42 | 2.79 2.80 November | 2.66 2.83 | 2.42 2.70 | 2.64 2.97 | 2.94 2.97 December | 2.52 2.87 | 2.27 2.76 | 2.96 3.03 | 2.87 2.98 January 1/| 2.51 2.88 | 2.32 2.82 | 2.90 3.09 | 2.82 2.99 February | 2.54 . | 2.37 . | 2.88 . | 2.82 . March | 2.59 . | 2.37 . | 2.63 . | 2.85 . April | 2.57 . | 2.32 . | 2.89 . | 2.89 . May | 2.59 . | 2.44 . | 3.02 . | 2.92 . ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Preliminary mid-month weighted average price for current month of the 2000/01 marketing year. Source: Agricultural Prices, National Agricultural Statistics Service, USDA. Table 6-Wheat by class: Regional average price received by farmers, 1/16/01 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | -------------------- Regional farm prices -------------------- | Hard Winter | Soft Winter | Hard Spring | Soft White Month | So. Plains 1/ | Corn Belt 2/ | No. Plains 3/ | Northwest 4/ | 99/00 00/01 | 99/00 00/01 | 99/00 00/01 | 99/00 00/01 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Dollars per bushel June | 2.35 2.52 | 2.11 2.24 | 3.01 2.88 | 2.86 2.50 July | 2.15 2.40 | 1.97 1.99 | 2.93 2.74 | 2.73 2.57 August | 2.26 2.35 | 2.12 1.95 | 2.86 2.59 | 2.82 2.38 September | 2.33 2.54 | 2.14 2.03 | 2.86 2.59 | 2.84 2.43 October | 2.16 2.74 | 2.11 2.09 | 2.80 2.80 | 2.80 2.58 November | 2.14 2.80 | 2.10 2.21 | 2.95 2.97 | 2.82 2.70 December | 2.06 2.82 | 2.11 2.31 | 2.87 2.98 | 2.68 2.74 January 5/ | 2.24 2.95 | 2.22 2.41 | 2.80 2.99 | 2.72 2.69 February | 2.29 . | 2.33 . | 2.82 . | 2.55 . March | 2.34 . | 2.23 . | 2.85 . | 2.61 . April | 2.23 . | 2.14 . | 2.89 . | 2.58 . May | 2.39 . | 2.19 . | 2.92 . | 2.65 . ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Average price of winter wheat in Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma, and Texas. 2/ Average price of winter wheat in Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, and Missouri. 3/ Monthly weighted U.S. average price for Aother spring@ wheat. 4/ Average price of all wheat in Washington, Oregon, and Idaho. 5/ Current month of current year based on preliminary mid-month prices. Note: Regional prices are ERS estimates. Source: State prices are from Agricultural Prices, NASS, USDA. Table 7--Wheat: Average cash grain bids at selected markets ($/bu.), 1/16/01 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | KC HRW #1 | KC HRW #1 | Portland | FOB Gulf Month | ordinary | 13% protein | #1 HRW Ord. | $/mt (#2 HRW) | 99/00 00/01 | 99/00 00/01 | 99/00 00/01 | 99/00 00/01 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ June | 2.93 3.07 | 3.22 3.59 | 3.10 3.19 | 110.60 115.66 July | 2.68 2.97 | 3.39 3.25 | 2.83 3.05 | 101.04 114.60 August | 2.85 2.89 | 3.42 3.13 | 3.00 2.98 | 109.86 112.10 September | 2.92 3.13 | 3.52 3.32 | 3.12 3.26 | 113.17 121.49 October | 2.80 3.41 | 3.40 3.59 | 2.97 3.66 | 107.29 130.88 November | 2.89 3.45 | 3.54 3.60 | 2.98 3.79 | 108.76 129.51 December | 2.81 3.47 | 3.44 3.60 | 2.84 3.78 | 102.88 130.51 January | 2.90 . | 3.46 . | 2.95 . | 106.17 134.85 February | 2.94 . | 3.37 . | 3.01 . | 109.69 . March | 2.91 . | 3.29 . | 2.95 . | 107.22 . April | 2.84 . | 3.30 . | 2.93 . | 106.17 . May | 2.95 . | 3.52 . | 3.07 . | 111.50 . ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | Minneapolis | Minneapolis | Minneapolis | Minneapolis Month | DNS 13% prot. | DNS 14% prot. | DNS 15% prot. | #1 HAD milling | 99/00 00/01 | 99/00 00/01 | 99/00 00/01 | 99/00 00/01 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ June | 3.65 3.50 | 3.73 3.78 | 4.03 4.08 | N/Q 4.07 July | 3.46 3.24 | 3.68 3.50 | 4.02 3.91 | 3.92 3.85 August | 3.29 2.99 | 3.58 3.29 | 4.10 3.73 | 3.73 3.62 September | 3.32 3.10 | 3.55 3.17 | 4.07 3.37 | 4.14 4.70 October | 3.23 3.52 | 3.70 3.69 | 4.17 4.10 | 4.46 5.12 November | 3.42 3.64 | 3.78 3.77 | 4.22 4.03 | 4.80 5.51 December | 3.38 3.60 | 3.64 3.52 | 3.89 3.97 | N/Q N/Q January | 3.19 . | 3.37 . | 3.99 . | N/Q . February | 3.37 . | 3.59 . | 3.94 . | 4.40 . March | 3.44 . | 3.65 . | 3.95 . | N/Q . April | 3.50 . | 3.69 . | 4.06 . | 4.11 . May | 3.50 . | 3.80 . | 4.15 . | 4.25 . ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | St. Louis | Chicago | Toledo | Portland Month | #2 soft red | #2 soft red | #2 soft red | #1 soft white | 99/00 00/01 | 99/00 00/01 | 99/00 00/01 | 99/00 00/01 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ June | 2.31 2.59 | 2.20 2.41 | 2.18 2.27 | 3.17 2.92 July | N/Q 2.17 | 1.94 2.14 | 2.02 2.06 | 3.06 2.78 August | 2.22 2.04 | 2.09 2.08 | 2.24 2.00 | 3.14 2.65 September | 2.48 2.06 | 2.12 2.13 | 2.23 1.98 | 3.25 2.78 October | 2.31 2.41 | 1.98 2.36 | 2.12 2.15 | 3.24 2.86 November | 2.50 2.42 | 1.96 2.42 | 2.06 2.15 | 3.09 2.94 December | 2.26 2.48 | 2.12 2.47 | 2.00 2.26 | 2.83 2.98 January | 2.38 . | 2.34 . | 2.23 . | 2.91 . February | 2.51 . | 2.38 . | 2.26 . | 2.88 . March | 2.40 . | 2.34 . | 2.17 . | 2.84 . April | 2.38 . | 2.30 . | 2.11 . | 2.89 . May | 2.56 . | 2.45 . | 2.28 . | 2.97 . ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ N/Q-no quote. Source: Grain and Feed Weekly Summary and Statistics, AMS, USDA. Table 8--Wheat: U.S. exports and imports for last 6 months, 1/16/01 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Exports, (1,000 bu.) 2000/2001 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Item 1/ | June July August September October November ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Wheat grain | 88,581 82,739 104,944 113,785 82,716 86,034 Wheat flour | 3,620 3,805 1,623 3,174 4,165 2,332 Products | 438 271 291 294 279 257 Total | 92,639 86,814 106,859 117,252 87,159 88,623 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Imports, (1,000 bu.) 2000/2001 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Item 1/ | June July August September October November -------------|---------------------------------------------------------------- Wheat grain | 5,819 5,971 2,878 4,801 7,158 7,295 Wheat flour | 680 639 751 725 787 742 Products | 1,130 1,208 1,302 1,032 1,182 1,390 Total | 7,629 7,818 4,931 6,559 9,127 9,426 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Census. 1/ Wheat flour and products converted to wheat grain equivalent. Totals may not add due to rounding. Table 9--Wheat: U.S. exports, Census and Export Sales comparison, 1/16/01 1/ - ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- | 1998/99 | 1999/2000 | 2000/01 (as of 1/04/01) Importing |-----------------------------------|-------------------------- country | | Ship- |Outstanding| Total | Shipments | ments | sales | ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Data | | Export | | Export | Export Source | Census | sales | Census | sales | Sales ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | 1,000 metric tons Country: | Egypt | 4,516 | 4,516 | 3,923 | 4,168 | 3,519 696 4,214 Japan | 3,055 | 3,201 | 3,172 | 3,122 | 1,969 476 2,445 Philippines | 1,682 | 1,749 | 2,126 | 2,175 | 1,326 352 1,678 Mexico | 1,733 | 1,860 | 1,832 | 1,963 | 1,233 309 1,543 EU | 1,421 | 1,407 | 1,330 | 1,300 | 962 179 1,141 S. Korea | 1,532 | 1,366 | 1,670 | 1,475 | 919 299 1,218 Nigeria | 1,238 | 1,300 | 1,127 | 1,300 | 956 211 1,167 Taiwan | 889 | 920 | 983 | 1,005 | 641 172 813 Israel | 716 | 734 | 820 | 917 | 512 134 646 Colombia | 535 | 509 | 779 | 726 | 421 44 465 Total grain | 27,402 | 25,555 | 28,047 | 25,453 | 17,521 3,960 21,480 Total(incl) | | | | | products) | 28,209 | 25,648 | 29,158 | 25,500 | 17,543 3,964 21,506 USDA forecast | | | | | of Census | | | | | 29,937 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/Export sales and shipments from USDA=s weekly U.S. Export Sales report. END_OF_FILE