WHEAT OUTLOOK April,12 2001 April 2001, WHS-0401 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- WHEAT OUTLOOK is issued 11 times a year by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. Electronic release only; no published copies are available. WHEAT OUTLOOK is supplemented by an annual WHEAT YEARBOOK. The yearbook summary for 2001 was released on March 27, 2001. Yearbooks are available in print from USDA Order Desk. For the 2001 issue, call 1-800-999-6779 (703-605- 6220) and ask for stock #ERS-WHS-2001, $21. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Highlights -- Prospective Wheat Plantings Are Down 4 Percent from 2000 -- Durum Acres Down Sharply -- Winter Wheat Crop Conditions Down from 2000 -- March 1 Wheat Stocks Down from a Year Ago -- Import Projection Lowered Slightly This Month -- Wheat Stocks in India and EU Increased This Month, Consumption Reduced -- Only Minor Changes in World Wheat Trade Forecasts Prospective Wheat Plantings Are Down 4 Percent from 2000 The U.S. Department of Agriculture released its Prospective Plantings report on March 30, 2001. Farmers were surveyed in the first 2 weeks of March to determine actual seeding of winter wheat and planting intentions for spring wheat. All wheat planted acreage is estimated at 60.30 million acres, down 4 percent from 2000 and the lowest since 1973. Durum wheat area is down 12 percent from 2000 and the lowest since 1997, while other spring wheat planting intentions are up 2 percent. The area seeded to winter wheat this year, estimated at 41.34 million acres, is down 2.01 million acres from 2000, but 27,000 acres above the indications in the Winter Wheat Seedings report released in January. Of the total, an estimated 70 percent is seeded to hard red winter (HRW) wheat varieties, 21 percent is seeded to soft red winter (SRW) wheat varieties, and 8 percent is seeded to white winter (WW) wheat varieties. Producers' planting intentions for durum and other spring wheat in 2001 total 18.96 million acres. Hard Red Winter Wheat--An estimated 29.1 million acres are seeded to HRW wheat for the 2001 crop. This HRW acreage is down 1.2 million acres from 2000, reflecting declines in winter wheat plantings in major HRW producing States of the Central and Southern Plains (Colorado, down 4 percent; Montana, down 20 percent; Oklahoma, down 11 percent; and Texas, down 5 percent). Changes from the January 11, 2001, Winter Wheat Seedings report for major HRW States include 100,000 additional acres in both Texas and Colorado and 50,000 fewer acres in South Dakota. Soft Red Winter Wheat--Producers seeded 8.8 million acres to SRW wheat for the 2001 crop. This area is about .74 million acres less than was seeded for harvest in 2000. Changes from the January 11, 2001, Winter Wheat Seedings report for major SRW States include 50,000 fewer acres in both Illinois and Indiana and 30,000 fewer acres in Arkansas. Acreage increased by 30,000 in North Carolina. White Wheat--Producers seeded 3.4 million acres to white winter wheat in the fall of 2000. Producers indicated intentions to seed another .94 million acres to white spring wheat in 2001, bringing the total area seeded to white wheat varieties to 4.38 million in 2001, only slightly greater than the 4.34 million acres in 2000. Significant changes from the January 11, 2001, Winter Wheat Seedings report for major white winter States were limited to a decline of 20,000 acres in Oregon. Durum Acres Down Sharply Durum Wheat--Producers indicated plans to reduce durum wheat acres to 3.46 million, down 12 percent from 2000 and the lowest since 1997. Poor growing and harvesting conditions during the last several seasons have contributed to the sharp decline in North Dakota. Cancellation of the durum Crop Revenue Coverage (CRC) insurance program mid-way through the survey dates may have affected the planting intentions of some durum producers. Seeding in the San Joaquin and Imperial Valleys of California progressed rapidly during January and February. Most of the San Joaquin Valley acreage was planted prior to January. Planting began in the Imperial Valley in late November and continued into March. Durum acreage dropped in both California and Arizona. Other Spring Wheat--Other spring wheat (excluding durum) intended acres are up 2 percent from 2000 to 15.50 million. About 14.6 million of the prospective acres are hard red spring (HRS), with the remainder white spring (WS). The largest acreage increases are expected in Idaho, Minnesota, North Dakota, and Washington. Growers in Montana, Oregon, and South Dakota intend to plant fewer acres than in 2000. Winter Wheat Crop Conditions Down from 2000 Winter wheat crop conditions in 2001 are below those from 2000. As of April 9, USDA's Crop Progress report indicated that 43 percent of the winter wheat crop was rated in good to excellent condition for the major wheat producing States, down from 61 percent on the same date in 2000. The percent of the winter wheat crop rated poor to very poor in these States was 22 percent, up from 14 percent in 2000. The Kansas wheat crop was said to have sustained minimal wind and freeze damage, similar to 2000, according to the Kansas Crop Weather report issued by the Kansas Agricultural Statistics Service. However, current crop conditions are worse due to last falls late plantings. As of April 9, 33 percent of the Kansas crop was rated good to excellent, down from 59 percent in 2000. Twenty-nine percent of the Kansas crop was rated poor to very poor compared with 10 percent in 2000. Crop progress is lagging 2000. Nine percent of wheat was reported jointed, compared with 58 percent a year ago and 37 percent for the 5-year average. Oklahoma's winter wheat crop as of April 9 was rated 31 percent good to excellent, down from 75 percent in 2000. Thirty-four percent of the crop was rated poor to very poor, up from 5 percent a year ago. The Oklahoma crop is developing slowly. Forty-four percent of the wheat had jointed, 44 points behind 2000 and 32 points behind normal. Many farmers initially delayed seeding because of early dry conditions, and then faced an extended period of rainfall that further delayed seeding and emergence. Conditions in other States were: Colorado, 59 percent good to excellent; Nebraska, 51 percent rated good to excellent; South Dakota, 43 percent; and Montana, 18 percent. Winter wheat conditions in Texas are rated as 36 percent good to excellent, up from 15 percent the previous year. On April 9, 22 percent of the crop was rated as poor or very poor, compared with 56 percent in 2000. According to an April 1 survey conducted by the Texas Agricultural Statistics Service, wheat producers expect to harvest 93 million bushels this year, 41 percent more than the 2000 crop, but 24 percent less than the 1999 crop. Texas is the only State that makes an April 1 winter wheat production estimate. The first national wheat forecast will be released by the National Agricultural Statistics Service on May 10, 2001. March 1 Wheat Stocks Down from a Year Ago The Grain Stocks report, released by the USDA on March 30, estimated all wheat stocks in all positions on March 1 at 1.34 million bushels, down 5 percent from March 1, 2000. Off-farm stocks were estimated at 950 million bushels, down 4 percent from 2000. Farm stocks were estimated at 390 million bushels, down 8 percent from 2000. Preliminary indications of the December 2000- February 2001 quarter disappearance is 489 million bushels, the same as the same period in 2000. Durum wheat stocks in all positions on March 1, 2001 totaled 72.9 million bushels, down 10 percent from 2000. On-farm stocks, at 44.2 million bushels, are down 15 percent, while off-farm stocks of 28.7 million bushels are down 3 percent. The indicated December 2000-February 2001 quarter disappearance of 31.4 million bushels is up 10 percent from the same period in 2000. The stocks report implied changes in feed and residual for four classes of wheat. Estimated feed and residual of hard red winter wheat dropped 9 million bushels and the durum estimate dropped 5 million bushels. Estimated hard red spring feed and residual increased by 10 million bushels, and white wheat by 5 million bushels. Import Projection Lowered Slightly This Month The pace of imports has slowed in recent months. As a result, the projection of total imports is reduced 5 million bushels this month to 90 million. If realized, this will be the lowest import level since 1995/96. Three wheat classes were affected by this change. The hard red spring wheat import forecast was reduced by 1 million bushels, white wheat import forecast was reduced 2 million bushels, and the durum import forecast was also reduced 2 million bushels. Wheat Stocks in India and EU Increased This Month, Consumption Reduced Forecast 2000/01 foreign wheat stocks were increased 5 million tons this month to 91 million, with most of the changes in the EU and India. For India, historical and forecast stocks are only Government stocks and do not include adjustment for privately held stocks. Based on recent stocks data, Indias forecast ending stocks were raised 4 million tons to 20 million, compared with beginning stocks of 13 million. The larger stocks implied reduced consumption. European Union stocks and consumption were revised for several years largely because of adjustments made to France. EU 2000/01 feed and residual consumption forecast was cut by 3.5 million tons, while food consumption was revised upward based on several sources, including attache reports. Changes to EU use and stocks over the last 2 years increased forecast EU stocks by 2 million tons. The higher forecast 2000/01 ending stocks for India and the EU will influence these Governments decisions on export subsidies and will influence world trade competition in 2001/02. Even with stocks in the EU and India increasing in 2000/01, world wheat stocks are expected to decline by 13 million tons to 114 million. The largest year-to-year drop, nearly 12 million tons, is expected in China, with smaller declines in the United States, Eastern Europe, North Africa, and the Middle East. Only Minor Changes in World Wheat Trade Forecasts Indias forecast 2000/01 wheat exports were increased 0.5 million tons this month. Large Government stocks provide an incentive to continue to subsidize exports even though the new crop is reportedly not as large as last years record. Canadas wheat export forecast was reduced 0.5 million tons this month because the pace of shipments has lagged expectations. The Canadian Wheat Board has not been as aggressive a seller as expected because of lackluster demand and possibly because the carry in the futures market indicates they may get a better price later. World wheat trade in 2000/01 is a forecast 107 million tons, down 6 million from a year ago, with reduced imports by Russia, Pakistan, India, and Turkey. This months changes in forecast 2000/01 wheat imports were largely offsetting. Import forecasts for Mexico and Morocco increased because of the strong pace of purchases. However, Turkeys imports dropped as severe economic problems have reduced the pace of imports. U.S. purchases of Canadian wheat have been less than expected, causing a slight reduction in forecast U.S. imports. The U.S. 2000/01 wheat export forecast remained unchanged this month, up slightly from the previous year. At the end of March, U.S. Export Sales reported outstanding sales larger than a year earlier, supporting the forecast. Note. The first official U.S., world, and country-specific supply and use projections for 2000/01 will be in the May 12 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report. Those projections will be analyzed in the May 14 Wheat Outlook report. ================================================================= ERS on the World Wide Web Introduced in January: A newly designed, newly structured ERS website. ERS' newly redesigned and restructured website will provide you with accurate, timely, comprehensive, easy-to-find economic analysis on issues related to agriculture, food, the environment, and rural development. Its been greatly expanded--including 19 commodity Briefing Rooms, 12 country Briefing Rooms, and a host of issue-oriented Briefing Rooms covering issues ranging from analysis of the World Trade Organization (WTO) to topics such as risk management, farm structure, and conservation and environmental policies. 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Bookmark www.ers.usda.gov Table 1--Wheat: U.S. market year supply and disappearance, 4/12/01 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- - Item 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00E 2000/01P ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- - Area: Million acres National total base acres 88.5 87.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Eff.base/Contract acres 1/ 77.7 76.7 76.7 78.9 79.0 79.0 0,50/92,85 program acres 6.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 CRP base retired 10.8 10.6 10.1 9.7 0.0 0.0 Planted 69.0 75.1 70.4 65.8 62.7 62.5 Harvested 61.0 62.8 62.8 59.0 53.8 53.0 Bushels per acre Yield: 35.8 36.3 39.5 43.2 42.7 41.9 Supply: Million bushels Beginning stocks 506.6 376.0 443.6 722.5 945.9 949.7 Production 2,182.7 2,277.4 2,481.5 2,547.3 2,299.0 2,223.4 Imports 2/ 67.9 92.3 94.9 103.0 94.5 90.0 Total supply 2,757.2 2,745.7 3,020.0 3,372.8 3,339.4 3,263.2 Use: Food 882.9 890.7 914.1 909.7 924.7 950.0 Seed 103.5 102.3 92.5 80.5 91.6 84.0 Feed and residual 153.7 307.6 250.5 394.4 283.8 300.0 Total domestic 1,140.1 1,300.6 1,257.1 1,384.7 1,300.1 1,334.0 Exports 2/ 1,241.1 1,001.5 1,040.4 1,042.2 1,089.5 1,100.0 Total use 2,381.2 2,302.1 2,297.5 2,426.9 2,389.7 2,434.0 Ending stocks: 376.0 443.6 722.5 945.9 949.7 829.2 Farmer-owned reserve 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 CCC inventory 3/ 118.0 93.0 94.0 128.0 104.0 105.0 Free stocks 258.0 350.6 628.5 817.9 845.7 724.2 Stocks-to-use ratio 15.8 19.3 31.4 39.0 39.7 34.1 Prices: Dollars per bushel Target price 4.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Loan rate 2.58 2.58 2.58 2.58 2.58 2.58 Contract payment rate 4/ 0.00 0.87 0.63 0.66 0.64 0.59 Ave. farm price 4.55 4.30 3.38 2.65 2.48 2.60- 2.70 Million dollars Contract payments 4/ 100 1,941 1,412 2,718 3,830 3,619 Market value of production 9,787 9,782 8,287 6,781 5,702 5,892 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- - Totals may not add due to rounding. E=Estimated. P=Projected. 1/Prior to 1996/97 effective base acres; 1996/97 and later total contract acres. 2/ Imports and exports include flour and other products expressed in wheat grain equivalent units. 3/ Includes Food Security Reserve. 4/ Data are for deficiency payments prior to 1996/97. Source: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, WAOB, USDA. Table 2--Wheat: U.S. market year supply and disappearance, 4/12/01 1/ ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- - 1999/00E HRW HRS SRW White Durum All wheat ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- - Area: Million acres Planted 30.75 14.34 9.13 4.45 4.04 62.71 Harvested 24.36 13.79 8.02 4.09 3.57 53.82 Yield: (bu/acre) 43.13 32.49 56.63 60.39 27.83 42.71 Supply: Million bushels Beg. stocks 435.1 233.0 136.0 87.0 54.8 945.9 Production 1,050.7 447.9 454.3 246.8 99.3 2,299.0 Imports 2/ 0.1 59.7 0.0 6.4 28.3 94.5 Total 1486.0 740.6 590.3 340.2 182.4 3339.4 Utilization: Total domestic 542.4 292.6 287.3 89.2 88.7 1,300.1 Exports 2/ 485.6 230.0 170.0 160.0 43.9 1,089.5 Total 1,028.1 522.6 457.3 249.2 132.6 2,389.7 Ending stocks: 457.9 218.0 133.0 91.0 49.8 949.7 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- - 2000/01P HRW HRS SRW White Durum All wheat ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- - Area: Million acres Planted 30.38 14.36 9.51 4.34 3.94 62.53 Harvested 23.56 13.58 8.14 4.18 3.57 53.03 Yield: (bu/acre) 35.82 36.71 57.85 71.85 30.76 41.93 Supply: Million bushels Beg. stocks 457.9 218.0 133.0 91.0 49.8 949.7 Production 843.7 498.5 470.9 300.6 109.8 2,223.4 Imports 2/ 1.0 59.0 0.0 4.0 26.0 90.0 Total 1,302.6 775.5 603.9 395.6 185.6 3,263.2 Utilization: Total domestic 497.5 332.0 286.9 121.2 96.4 1,334.0 Exports 2/ 420.0 235.0 180.0 215.0 50.0 1,100.0 Total 917.5 567.0 466.9 336.2 146.4 2,434.0 Ending stocks: 385.0 208.5 137.0 59.4 39.2 829.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- - Totals may not add due to rounding. E=Estimated, P=Projected. 1/ ERS estimates of area, yield, and domestic use. 2/ Imports and exports include flour and other products expressed in wheat equivalent. Source: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, WAOB, USDA. Table 3--Wheat: Quarterly supply and disappearance (1,000 bu.), 4/12/01 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- - Market Produc- Imports Supply Food Seed Feed Exports Ending Year tion 1/ 1/ stocks ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- - Million bushels 1998/99: Jun-Aug 2,547 24 3,294 226 1 425 257 2,385 Sep-Nov --- 24 2,409 241 55 (74) 292 1,896 Dec-Feb --- 28 1,923 213 1 12 247 1,450 Mar-May --- 27 1,477 230 23 32 246 946 Mkt. year 2,547 103 3,373 910 81 394 1,042 946 1999/00 E: Jun-Aug 2,299 31 3,276 230 6 270 324 2,445 Sep-Nov --- 19 2,465 241 55 (8) 291 1,886 Dec-Feb --- 19 1,905 221 2 29 236 1,417 Mar-May --- 25 1,440 232 28 (8) 239 950 Mkt. year 2,299 95 3,339 925 92 284 1,090 950 2000/01 P: Jun-Aug 2,223 20 3,194 237 1 317 286 2,353 Sep-Nov --- 25 2,378 251 51 (22) 293 1,805 Dec-Feb --- 23 1,828 225 3 12 248 1,340 Mar-May --- Mkt. year 2,223 90 3,263 950 84 300 1,100 829 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- - Totals might not add due to rounding. E=Estimated, P=Projected. 1/ Imports and exports include flour and selected products expressed in wheat equivalent. Table 4--Monthly food use estimates for last 12 months, (1,000 bu.), 4/12/01 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- - Item | January February March April May June ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- - Mill grind + | 73,294 72,712 77,144 74,772 76,451 73,145 Food imports 1/ + | 1,795 1,763 2,098 1,643 1,958 1,809 Non-flour | food use 2/ + | 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 Food exports 1/ - | 3,245 6,409 2,807 3,443 1,494 3,834 Food use = | 73,884 70,067 78,434 74,972 78,916 73,120 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- - Item | July August September October November December ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- - Mill grind + | 77,195 84,369 81,127 85,985 82,301 77,252 Food imports 1/ + | 1,846 2,051 1,755 1,967 2,130 2,039 Non-flour | food use 2/ + | 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 Food exports 1/ - | 4,067 1,902 3,465 4,442 2,588 3,021 Food use = | 76,974 86,518 81,416 85,510 83,842 76,270 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- - 1/ Wheat flour and flour products converted to wheat grain equivalent. 2/ ERS estimate of cereal use. N.A.=Not available. Totals may not add due to rounding. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Census. Table 5--Wheat: National average price received by farmers ($/bu.), 4/12/01 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- - | ------------------------ Farm prices ------------------------ Month | All wheat | Winter | Durum | Other spring | 99/00 00/01 | 99/00 00/01 | 99/00 00/01 | 99/00 00/01 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- - June | 2.50 2.50 | 2.32 2.43 | 2.93 2.71 | 3.01 2.90 July | 2.22 2.32 | 2.12 2.23 | 2.89 2.90 | 2.93 2.74 August | 2.53 2.41 | 2.35 2.31 | 2.76 2.33 | 2.86 2.59 September | 2.58 2.44 | 2 46 2.37 | 2.29 2.32 | 2.86 2.59 October | 2.57 2.68 | 2.47 2.63 | 2.30 2.42 | 2.79 2.80 November | 2.66 2.83 | 2.42 2.70 | 2.64 2.97 | 2.94 2.97 December | 2.52 2.87 | 2.27 2.76 | 2.96 3.03 | 2.87 2.98 January | 2.51 2.85 | 2.32 2.77 | 2.90 2.94 | 2.82 2.96 February | 2.54 2.83 | 2.37 2.74 | 2.88 2.60 | 2.82 2.99 March 1/ | 2.59 2.89 | 2.37 2.86 | 2.63 2.67 | 2.85 2.99 April | 2.57 . | 2.32 . | 2.89 . | 2.89 . May | 2.59 . | 2.44 . | 3.02 . | 2.92 . ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- - 1/ Preliminary mid-month weighted average price for current month of the 2000/01 marketing year. Source: Agricultural Prices, National Agricultural Statistics Service, USDA. Table 6--Wheat by class: Regional average price received by farmers, 4/12/01 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- - | -------------------- Regional farm prices -------------------- | Hard Winter | Soft Winter | Hard Spring | Soft White Month | So. Plains 1/ | Corn Belt 2/ | No. Plains 3/ | Northwest 4/ | 99/00 00/01 | 99/00 00/01 | 99/00 00/01 | 99/00 00/01 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- - Dollars per bushel June | 2.35 2.52 | 2.11 2.24 | 3.01 2.88 | 2.86 2.50 July | 2.15 2.40 | 1.97 1.99 | 2.93 2.74 | 2.73 2.57 August | 2.26 2.35 | 2.12 1.95 | 2.86 2.59 | 2.82 2.38 September | 2.33 2.54 | 2.14 2.03 | 2.86 2.59 | 2.84 2.43 October | 2.16 2.74 | 2.11 2.09 | 2.80 2.80 | 2.80 2.58 November | 2.14 2.80 | 2.10 2.21 | 2.95 2.97 | 2.82 2.70 December | 2.06 2.82 | 2.11 2.31 | 2.87 2.98 | 2.68 2.74 January | 2.24 2.87 | 2.22 2.41 | 2.80 2.96 | 2.72 2.72 February | 2.29 2.79 | 2.33 2.48 | 2.82 2.99 | 2.55 2.79 March 5/ | 2.34 2.89 | 2.23 2.43 | 2.85 2.99 | 2.61 3.01 April | 2.23 . | 2.14 . | 2.89 . | 2.58 . May | 2.39 . | 2.19 . | 2.92 . | 2.65 . ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- - 1/ Average price of winter wheat in Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma, and Texas. 2/ Average price of winter wheat in Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, and Missouri. 3/ Monthly weighted U.S. average price for other spring wheat. 4/ Average price of all wheat in Washington, Oregon, and Idaho. 5/ Current month of current year based on preliminary mid-month prices. Note: Regional prices are ERS estimates. Source: State prices are from Agricultural Prices, NASS, USDA. Table 7--Wheat: Average cash grain bids at selected markets ($/bu.), 4/12/01 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- - | KC HRW #1 | KC HRW #1 | Portland | FOB Gulf Month | ordinary | 13% protein | #1 HRW Ord. | $/mt (#2 HRW) | 99/00 00/01 | 99/00 00/01 | 99/00 00/01 | 99/00 00/01 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- - June | 2.93 3.07 | 3.22 3.59 | 3.10 3.19 | 110.60 115.66 July | 2.68 2.97 | 3.39 3.25 | 2.83 3.05 | 101.04 114.60 August | 2.85 2.89 | 3.42 3.13 | 3.00 2.98 | 109.86 112.10 September | 2.92 3.13 | 3.52 3.32 | 3.12 3.26 | 113.17 121.49 October | 2.80 3.41 | 3.40 3.59 | 2.97 3.66 | 107.29 130.88 November | 2.89 3.45 | 3.54 3.60 | 2.98 3.79 | 108.76 129.51 December | 2.81 3.47 | 3.44 3.60 | 2.84 3.78 | 102.88 130.51 January | 2.90 3.54 | 3.46 3.64 | 2.95 3.82 | 106.17 134.85 February | 2.94 3.35 | 3.37 3.46 | 3.01 3.70 | 109.69 130.58 March | 2.91 . | 3.29 . | 2.95 . | 107.22 . April | 2.84 . | 3.30 . | 2.93 . | 106.17 . May | 2.95 . | 3.52 . | 3.07 . | 111.50 . ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- - | Minneapolis | Minneapolis | Minneapolis | Minneapolis Month | DNS 13% prot. | DNS 14% prot. | DNS 15% prot. | #1 HAD milling | 99/00 00/01 | 99/00 00/01 | 99/00 00/01 | 99/00 00/01 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- - June | 3.65 3.50 | 3.73 3.78 | 4.03 4.08 | N/Q 4.07 July | 3.46 3.24 | 3.68 3.50 | 4.02 3.91 | 3.92 3.85 August | 3.29 2.99 | 3.58 3.29 | 4.10 3.73 | 3.73 3.62 September | 3.32 3.10 | 3.55 3.17 | 4.07 3.37 | 4.14 4.70 October | 3.23 3.52 | 3.70 3.69 | 4.17 4.10 | 4.46 5.12 November | 3.42 3.64 | 3.78 3.77 | 4.22 4.03 | 4.80 5.51 December | 3.38 3.60 | 3.64 3.52 | 3.89 3.97 | N/Q N/Q January | 3.19 3.60 | 3.37 3.79 | 3.99 4.12 | N/Q N/Q February | 3.37 3.53 | 3.59 3.68 | 3.94 3.97 | 4.40 4.50 March | 3.44 . | 3.65 . | 3.95 . | N/Q . April | 3.50 . | 3.69 . | 4.06 . | 4.11 . May | 3.50 . | 3.80 . | 4.15 . | 4.25 . ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- - | St. Louis | Chicago | Toledo | Portland Month | #2 soft red | #2 soft red | #2 soft red | #1 soft white | 99/00 00/01 | 99/00 00/01 | 99/00 00/01 | 99/00 00/01 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- - June | 2.31 2.59 | 2.20 2.41 | 2.18 2.27 | 3.17 2.92 July | N/Q 2.17 | 1.94 2.14 | 2.02 2.06 | 3.06 2.78 August | 2.22 2.04 | 2.09 2.08 | 2.24 2.00 | 3.14 2.65 September | 2.48 2.06 | 2.12 2.13 | 2.23 1.98 | 3.25 2.78 October | 2.31 2.41 | 1.98 2.36 | 2.12 2.15 | 3.24 2.86 November | 2.50 2.42 | 1.96 2.42 | 2.06 2.15 | 3.09 2.94 December | 2.26 2.48 | 2.12 2.47 | 2.00 2.26 | 2.83 2.98 January | 2.38 2.52 | 2.34 2.57 | 2.23 2.43 | 2.91 3.01 February | 2.51 2.55 | 2.38 2.49 | 2.26 2.33 | 2.88 3.15 March | 2.40 . | 2.34 . | 2.17 . | 2.84 . April | 2.38 . | 2.30 . | 2.11 . | 2.89 . May | 2.56 . | 2.45 . | 2.28 . | 2.97 . ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- - N/Q-no quote. Source: Grain and Feed Weekly Summary and Statistics, AMS, USDA. Table 8--Wheat: U.S. exports and imports for last 6 months, 4/12/01 1/ ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- - Exports, (1,000 bu.) 2000/2001 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- - Item 1/ | August September October November December January ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- - Wheat grain | 104,944 113,785 82,716 86,034 94,705 60,743 Wheat flour | 1,623 3,174 4,165 2,332 2,741 2,236 Products | 291 294 279 257 349 297 Total | 106,859 117,252 87,159 88,623 97,795 63,275 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- - Imports, (1,000 bu.) 2000/2001 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- - Item 1/ | August September October November December January -------------|--------------------------------------------------------------- - Wheat grain | 2,878 4,801 7,158 7,295 6,099 4,526 Wheat flour | 751 725 787 742 777 833 Products | 1,302 1,032 1,182 1,390 1,264 1,204 Total | 4,931 6,559 9,127 9,426 8,140 6,563 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Census. 1/ Wheat flour and products converted to wheat grain equivalent. Totals may not add due to rounding. Table 9--Wheat: U.S. exports, Census and Export Sales comparison, 4/12/01 1/ ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- - | 1998/99 | 1999/2000 | 2000/01 (as of 3/29/01) Importing |-----------------------------------|-------------------------- country | | Ship- |Outstanding| Total | Shipments | ments | sales | ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- - Data | | Export | | Export | Export Source | Census | sales | Census | sales | Sales ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- - | 1,000 metric tons Country: | Egypt | 4,516 | 4,516 | 3,923 | 4,168 | 4,149 365 4,514 Japan | 3,055 | 3,201 | 3,172 | 3,122 | 2,474 488 2,962 Philippines | 1,682 | 1,749 | 2,126 | 2,175 | 1,654 379 2,033 Mexico | 1,733 | 1,860 | 1,832 | 1,963 | 1,624 229 1,853 EU | 1,421 | 1,407 | 1,330 | 1,300 | 1,143 260 1,403 S. Korea | 1,532 | 1,366 | 1,670 | 1,475 | 1,148 258 1,406 Nigeria | 1,238 | 1,300 | 1,127 | 1,300 | 1,178 211 1,389 Taiwan | 889 | 920 | 983 | 1,005 | 800 179 979 Israel | 716 | 734 | 820 | 917 | 629 64 694 Colombia | 535 | 509 | 779 | 726 | 494 84 578 Total grain | 27,402 | 25,555 | 28,047 | 25,453 | 21,368 3,638 25,006 Total(incl) | | | | | products) | 28,209 | 25,648 | 29,158 | 25,500 | 21,399 3,646 25,045 USDA forecast | | | | | of Census | | | | | 29,937 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/Export sales and shipments from USDAs weekly U.S. Export Sales report. Wheat Outlook, WHS-0401, ERS, April 12, 2001 Page 1 END_OF_FILE