WHEAT OUTLOOK June 14, 2001 June 2001, WHS-0601 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WHEAT OUTLOOK is issued 11 times a year by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. Electronic release only; no published copies are available. WHEAT OUTLOOK is supplemented by an annual WHEAT YEARBOOK. The yearbook summary for 2001 was released on March 27, 2001. Yearbooks are available in print from USDA Order Desk. For the 2001 issue, call 1-800-999-6779 (703-605-6220) and ask for stock #ERS-WHS-2001, $21. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WHEAT OUTLOOK, WHS-0601 June 14, 2001 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board WHEAT OUTLOOK is issued 11 times a year in electronic form by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. Printed copies are not available. WHEAT OUTLOOK is supplemented by an annual WHEAT YEARBOOK. The yearbook summary for 2001 was released on March 27, 2001. Yearbooks are available in print from the ERS-NASS Order Desk. For the 2001 issue, call 1-800-999-6779 (703-605-6220) and ask for stock #ERS-WHS-2000, $21. Summary Projected 2001/02 ending stocks of wheat are down 6 million bushels from last month as a smaller crop and increased use more than offset increased carryin stocks. Forecast winter wheat production is down 20 million bushels from last month because of lower yields. Projected food use is up 10 million bushels. The projected 2001/02 price range is unchanged at $2.75 to $3.35 per bushel. Forecast 2000/01 ending stocks of wheat are up 25 million bushels, with exports down 35 million bushels but food use up 10 million. Expected food use is higher than last month for both 2000/01 and 2001/02 because recently released mill grind estimates by the Bureau of the Census were larger than expected. This month, U.S. wheat exports forecast for 2000/01 were reduced 1 million tons to 29 million tons because of the slow pace of shipments. However, U.S. July/June exports projected for 2001/02 increased 0.5 million tons to 27.5 million as lower production forecast for Canada, Australia, and Turkey reduced their export prospects. Projected 2001/02 world wheat ending stocks are down more than 7 million tons this month mostly because of reduced crop prospects in China. China's wheat stocks at the end of 2001/02 are forecast at 35 million tons, down precipitously from 65 million estimated at the beginning of 2000/01. Reduced incentives to plant wheat and unfavorable weather are reducing production for a second year, while consumption remains relatively stable. This Month's Outlook Calls for Lower Production, Unchanged Prices The production forecast for the 2001/02 U.S. wheat crop is down 20 million bushels from May because of lower forecast yields for winter wheat. However, total supply is 4 million bushels higher because reduced exports for the 2000/01 crop resulted in higher carryin stocks. Projected domestic use is up from last month because of higher food use based on the Bureau of the Census quarterly Flour Milling Products issued in May. Exports for the June/May marketing year are unchanged from last month. The result is slightly reduced ending stocks for 2001/02. Consequently, the projected 2001/02 farm price range of $2.75 to $3.35 per bushel is unchanged from last month. This price is above the $2.63 per bushel estimate for 2000/01. Winter Wheat--U.S. winter wheat production forecast at 1,321 million bushels is down 20 million from the May forecast. The crop is 15 percent below 2000 and is the lowest since 1978. The U.S. winter wheat yield is forecast at 41.2 bushels per acre, down 0.6 bushels from last month. Projected declines of winter wheat yields of 4 bushels per acre or greater compared with last month were made for North Carolina, Ohio, New York, Montana, Oregon, and Washington. Harvested area totals 32.1 million acres, unchanged from May, but down 8 percent from 2000. This is the smallest winter wheat area since 1957. The projected winter wheat production declines in most States compared with a year ago. The largest declines are Kansas (-62.2 million bushels); Oklahoma (-45.6 million bushels); South Dakota (-35.6 million bushels); and Washington (-21.2 million bushels). In all four States both harvested area and yields are down. A major exception is Texas, where production is projected to recover from last year's poor crop with both higher harvested area and yields. Texas production is projected to increase by 26.8 million bushels. Forecasted head counts from the Objective Yield surveys in the six hard red winter wheat States (Colorado, Kansas, Montana, Nebraska, Oklahoma, and Texas) are well below last year's final counts. Indicated average head weights are above last year's level. Kansas received widespread showers throughout May. May brought seasonal temperatures and above average moisture to Colorado, conditions that were favorable for a crop that began the growing season with mediocre to poor stands. The crop continues to progress in mostly fair to good condition, but is still about a week behind the usual pace. The Montana crop condition plummeted during May due to damaging winds and dry soil. As of June 3, 77 percent of the Montana crop was rated poor to very poor. Crop conditions remained stable in Nebraska during May, where plant development is slightly behind normal. Harvest began in late May in Oklahoma, but extremely heavy rainfall over Memorial Day weekend limited harvest progress. As of June 3, 26 percent of the Texas crop had been harvested. The remaining wheat was rated mainly fair to good. Soft red winter yields are mostly unchanged or lower than last month. The exceptions are Mississippi and South Carolina where warm dry weather during the first 3 weeks of May accelerated crop development. Dry weather and insect pressure during early May in Arkansas lowered yield prospects. The crop in Missouri is about a week ahead of normal. Rain and humidity are a concern for Illinois growers. Cool temperatures have limited any major disease problems in Indiana. Recent rains in Kentucky have caused some lodging. The Mid-Atlantic and Northeastern States registered decreased yield expectations. Yield prospects in North Carolina are declining as the impact of a cold snap in mid-April is becoming more evident. Collective head count forecasts are below last year's level in the soft red objective yield States of Illinois, Missouri, and Ohio. Indicated average head weights are also down from last year. The Pacific Northwest States' (Washington, Oregon, and Idaho) winter wheat crop condition declined slightly during May. Warm, dry weather during May has reduced yield expectations for Idaho's dryland farmers. In Oregon, the irrigated acres are still looking good where irrigation water is available, however hot dry weather has stressed most of the dryland wheat. The Washington crop is a little stressed, but progressing well. Winter Wheat by Class--The hard red winter (HRW) wheat class is forecast to total 717 million bushels, down only slightly from last month, but 15 percent below 2000. Harvested acreage is estimated at 21.4 million acres, and average yield is estimated to be 33.5 bushels per acre. Production of soft red winter (SRW) wheat is forecast at 396 million bushels this year, down 14 million from last month and 16 percent below last year. Harvested acreage is estimated at 7.5 million acres, and average yield is estimated to be 53.1 bushels per acre. Soft white winter (SWW) wheat production is forecast at 208 million bushels in 2001, down 6 million from last month and 16 percent below last year's production. Harvested acreage is estimated at 3.2 million acres, and average yield is estimated to be 64.4 bushels per acre. Seeding of Spring Wheat Completed in a Timely Manner As of June 3, 95 percent of the spring wheat was planted compared with 94 percent for the 5-year average. Dry weather aided progress in North Dakota, where growers seeded 10 percent of their spring wheat during the week of May 28 to June 3. Sixty-six percent of the spring wheat crop was categorized with good to excellent crop conditions in the June 11 Crop Progress report. A year ago at this time 69 percent of the spring wheat crop was rated good to excellent. Ten percent of the spring wheat crop was categorized with poor to very poor crop conditions, slightly lower than a year ago. The June 11 North Dakota Crop Weather reported that durum wheat in the State was 87 percent emerged, compared with 94 percent last year and an 81 percent average. Seventy-six percent of the State's durum crop was rated good to excellent, compared with 75 percent last year. Desert Durum Harvest Is Underway Production of durum wheat in Arizona and California is forecast at 15.5 million bushels in the June 12 Crop Production report. This is up 1 percent from May 1, but down 13 percent from their 2000 total of 17.8 million. Arizona's harvest was nearly 20 percent complete by June 1. Harvest in the California Imperial Valley was active throughout May, and was approximately 95 percent complete by June 1. San Joaquin Valley's harvest should begin in early June. The 1999/2000 Balance Sheet Is Revised from Last Month U.S. ending stocks for 2000/01 are up 25 million bushels from the May forecast of 829 million bushels. Projected food use was increased 10 million bushels, but projected exports were decreased 35 million bushels. Both hard red winter and hard red spring food use were raised 5 million bushels. Projected exports of hard red winter were dropped 20 million bushels, white wheat by 10 million bushels, and hard red spring by 5 million bushels USDA Adds Two Texas Counties to Karnal Bunt Wheat Quarantine List Two Texas counties have been added to a U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) quarantine list because evidence of karnal bunt fungus has been detected there. Any wheat leaving Throckmorton and Young counties in north central Texas must now be tested and found to be free of karnal bunt before it can be moved. Wheat testing positive can only be fed after heating to destroy the spores. Harvesting equipment must be disinfected when leaving the quarantined counties. World Wheat Production Reduced for Both 2000/01 and 2001/02 Global wheat production in 2000/01 is estimated at 579 million tons, down almost 2 million from last month. China's recently official preliminary estimates of 2000/01 wheat production are 2.4 million less than previously estimated by USDA. This was partly offset by increased production for Tunisia and Australia. World wheat production in 2001/02 is forecast at 569 million tons, down 3 million tons from last month. A large drop in prospects for China and smaller reductions for Australia, Canada, Turkey, and the United States were partially offset by increased prospects for Ukraine, Eastern Europe, and North Africa. In China, across much of the North China Plain, May was the hottest and driest in the last 20 years. The drought has extended into the first part of June. The adverse conditions are expected to limit China's production to 96 million tons, down 8 million from a month ago and the lowest in 10 years. A dry and exceptionally warm winter across parts of the Anatolian Plateau reduced wheat production prospects in Turkey, forecast down 1 million tons this month to 16 million. Excessive dryness, until recently, during planting has reduced prospects in Canada and Australia, each down 0.5 million tons from last month. Growing conditions during the fall, winter, and spring in Ukraine have been exceptionally favorable for wheat production, boosting the 2001/02 forecast to 19 million tons, up 3 million from a month ago and almost double the previous year's crop. Forecast production also increased for Eastern Europe (up 2 million tons this month) and North Africa (up 1 million) because dry conditions in these regions did not damage wheat production as much as previously expected. Increased estimates of area in the United Kingdom and Argentina boosted production prospects in each country by 0.5 million tons. Forecast World Wheat Consumption Boosted This Month But Imports Little Changed Projected 2001/02 world wheat consumption increased more than 2 million tons this month to 594 million. Consumption is expected higher mostly in countries with increased production forecasts, including Ukraine, Eastern Europe, the European Union (EU), Argentina, and North Africa. Forecast consumption was reduced slightly for Turkey because of reduced production and Egypt because imports and consumption in 2000/01 have not been as robust as expected. Forecast 2001/02 world wheat imports are nearly unchanged this month with a 1-million-ton increase in China's imports mostly offset by reduced imports for Eastern Europe and North Africa. World wheat trade (excluding intra-EU trade) in 2001/02 is forecast at 108 million tons, up from 104 million the previous year, but down from 112 million reached in 1999/2000. Forecast 2001/02 wheat trade does not assume China's entry into the World Trade Organization. U.S. 2000/01 Wheat Export Forecast Reduced, Next Year's July/June Exports Increased This month, U.S. wheat exports forecast for July/June 2000/01 were reduced 1 million tons to 29 million tons because of the slow pace of shipments. This is nearly identical to the June/May 2000/01 reduction of 35 million bushels to 1,065 million. In early June the local marketing year was over, and data on grain inspections were used to estimate grain exports for the forecast. The final number will be based on Census trade data for May that will not be published until July. The July/June year remains a forecast because June is not over, and only some weekly data are available. The identical June/May and July/June forecasts imply that USDA expects June 2001 wheat exports to be about the same as in June 2000. However, U.S. exports projected for July/June 2001/02 increased 0.5 million tons to 27.5 million, while the June/May marketing year remained unchanged at 1 billion bushels. This implies that whereas last month June 2002 wheat exports were expected to be slightly lower than during June the previous 2 years, now June 2002 U.S. wheat exports are expected to be somewhat larger. The July/June U.S. wheat export forecast was also boosted in response to reduced competition as lower production forecasts for Canada, Australia, and Turkey reduced their export prospects. Global Wheat Stocks To Drop As China's Stocks Plummet Projected 2001/02 world wheat ending stocks are down more than 7 million tons this month mostly because of reduced prospects in China. China's wheat stocks at the end of 2001/02 are forecast at 35 million tons, down precipitously from 65 million estimated at the beginning of 2000/01. Reduced incentives to plant wheat and unfavorable weather are reducing production for a second year, while consumption remains relatively stable. Forecast global stocks at 132 million tons are the lowest since 1982/83, before the increases in China's production and stocks that occurred during the last two decades. Changes in global stocks may not be reflected in traded prices because the stocks in countries like China and India are at least partially isolated from world markets. This month, the major exporters forecast 2001/02 ending stocks were basically unchanged. Ending stocks in the five largest wheat exporters, the United States, Canada, Australia, EU, and Argentina, are forecast at 43 million tons, down 8 million tons from beginning stocks. ================================================================= Information Contacts: Gary Vocke (Situation Coordinator) (202) 694-5285 Edward W. Allen (International Analyst) (202) 694-5288 Electronic copies are available at: World Wide Website www.ers.usda.gov The next electronic Wheat Outlook report will be issued on July 13, 2001. ================================================================= ERS on the World Wide Web Introduced in January: A newly designed, newly structured ERS website. ERS' newly redesigned and restructured website will provide you with accurate, timely, comprehensive, easy-to-find economic analysis on issues related to agriculture, food, the environment, and rural development. 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National toal base 87.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Eff.base/Ctr. acres 0,50/92,85 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 CRP base retired 10.6 10.1 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 Planted 75.1 70.4 65.8 62.7 62.5 60.3 Harvested 62.8 62.8 59.0 53.8 53.0 50.3 Yield: (bu/acre) 36.3 39.5 43.2 42.7 41.9 38.6 Supply: (mil. bu.) Beginning stocks 376.0 443.6 722.5 945.9 949.7 854.2 Production 2,277.4 2,481.5 2,547.3 2,299.0 2,223.4 1,941.1 Imports 1/ 92.3 94.9 103.0 94.5 90.0 95.0 Total supply 2,745.7 3,020.0 3,372.8 3,339.4 3,263.2 2,890.3 Use: Food 890.7 914.1 909.7 924.8 960.0 970.0 Seed 102.3 92.5 80.5 91.6 84.0 85.0 Feed and residual 307.6 250.5 394.4 283.7 300.0 250.0 Total domestic 1,300.6 1,257.1 1,384.7 1,300.1 1,344.0 1,305.0 Exports 1/ 1,001.5 1,040.4 1,042.2 1,089.5 1,065.0 1,000.0 Total use 2,302.1 2,297.5 2,426.9 2,389.7 2,409.0 2,305.0 Ending stocks: 443.6 722.5 945.9 949.7 854.2 585.3 Farmer-owned reserve 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 CCC inventory 2/ 93.0 94.0 128.0 104.0 105.0 95.0 Free stocks 350.6 628.5 817.9 845.7 749.2 490.3 Stocks-to-use ratio 19.3 31.4 39.0 39.7 35.5 25.4 Prices: ($/bu.) Target price 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Loan rate 2.58 2.58 2.58 2.58 2.58 2.58 Contract rate 3/ 0.87 0.63 0.66 0.64 0.59 0.00 Ave. farm price 4.30 3.38 2.65 2.48 2.63 2.75-3.35 Contract pmts. (mil. dollars) 3/ 1,941 1,412 2,718 3,829 3,620 1,253 Market value of production (mil. dollars) 9,782 8,287 6,781 5,702 5,848 5,920 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Source: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, WAOB, USDA. Totals may not add due to rounding. E=Estimated, P=Projected, N.A.=not applicable. 1/ Imports and exports include flour and other products expressed in wheat equivalent. 2/ Includes Food Security Reserve. 3/ Deficiency payments prior to 1996/97. Table 2--Wheat: U.S. market year supply and disappearance, 6/12/01 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1999/00E HRW HRS SRW White Durum All wheat ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Area: Million acres Planted 30.75 14.34 9.13 4.45 4.04 62.71 Harvested 24.36 13.79 8.02 4.09 3.57 53.82 Yield: (bu/acre) 43.13 32.49 56.63 60.39 27.83 42.71 Supply: Million bushels Beg. stocks 435.1 233.0 136.0 87.0 54.8 945.9 Production 1,050.7 447.9 454.3 246.8 99.3 2,299.0 Imports 2/ 0.1 59.7 0.0 6.4 28.3 94.5 Total 1486.0 740.6 590.3 340.2 182.4 3339.4 Utilization: Total domestic 542.4 292.6 287.3 89.2 88.7 1,300.1 Exports 2/ 485.6 230.0 170.0 160.0 43.9 1,089.5 Total 1,028.1 522.6 457.3 249.2 132.6 2,389.7 Ending stocks: 457.9 218.0 133.0 91.0 49.8 949.7 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 2000/01P HRW HRS SRW White Durum All wheat ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Area: Million acres Planted 30.38 14.36 9.51 4.34 3.94 62.53 Harvested 23.56 13.58 8.14 4.18 3.57 53.03 Yield: (bu/acre) 35.82 36.71 57.85 71.85 30.76 41.93 Supply: Million bushels Beg. stocks 457.9 218.0 133.0 91.0 49.8 949.7 Production 843.7 498.5 470.9 300.6 109.8 2,223.4 Imports 2/ 1.0 60.0 0.0 5.0 24.0 90.0 Total 1,302.6 776.5 603.9 396.6 183.6 3,263.2 Utilization: Total domestic 502.5 337.0 286.9 121.2 96.4 1,344.0 Exports 2/ 400.0 230.0 180.0 205.0 50.0 1,065.0 Total 902.5 567.0 466.9 326.2 146.4 2,409.0 Ending stocks: 400.0 209.5 137.0 70.4 37.2 854.2 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Totals may not add due to rounding. E=Estimated, P=Projected. 1/ ERS estimates of area, yield, and domestic use. 2/ Imports and exports include flour and other products expressed in wheat equivalent. Source: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, WAOB, USDA. Table 3--Wheat: Quarterly supply and disappearance (1,000 bu.), 6/11/01 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Market Produc- Imports Supply Food Seed Feed Exports Ending Year tion 1/ 1/ stocks ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Million bushels 1998/99: Jun-Aug 2,547 24 3,294 226 1 425 257 2,385 Sep-Nov --- 24 2,409 241 55 (74) 292 1,896 Dec-Feb --- 28 1,923 213 1 12 247 1,450 Mar-May --- 27 1,477 230 23 32 246 946 Mkt. year 2,547 103 3,373 910 81 394 1,042 946 1999/00 E: Jun-Aug 2,299 31 3,276 230 6 270 324 2,445 Sep-Nov --- 19 2,465 241 55 (8) 291 1,886 Dec-Feb --- 19 1,905 221 2 29 236 1,417 Mar-May --- 25 1,440 232 28 (8) 239 950 Mkt. year 2,299 95 3,339 925 92 284 1,090 950 2000/01 P: Jun-Aug 2,223 20 3,194 237 1 317 286 2,353 Sep-Nov --- 25 2,378 251 51 (22) 293 1,805 Dec-Feb --- 21 1,827 230 3 4 250 1,340 Mar-May --- 23 1,363 242 29 1 236 854 Mkt. year 2,223 90 3,263 960 84 300 1,065 854 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Totals might not add due to rounding. E=Estimated, P=Projected. 1/ Imports and exports include flour and selected products expressed in wheat equivalent. Table 4--Monthly food use estimates for last 12 months, (1,000 bu.), 5/10/01 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Item | April May June July August September ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Mill grind + | 74,772 76,451 73,145 77,195 84,369 81,127 Food imports 1/ + | 1,643 1,958 1,809 1,846 2,051 1,755 Non-flour | food use 2/ + | 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 Food exports 1/ - | 3,443 1,494 3,834 4,067 1,902 3,465 Food use = | 74,972 78,916 73,120 76,974 86,518 81,416 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Item | October November December January February March ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Mill grind + | 85,985 82,301 77,252 74,807 74,214 78,737 Food imports 1/ + | 1,967 2,130 2,039 2,036 1,734 2,122 Non-flour | food use 2/ + | 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 Food exports 1/ - | 4,442 2,588 3,021 2,532 2,454 2,488 Food use = | 85,510 83,842 76,270 76,312 75,494 80,371 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Wheat flour and flour products converted to wheat grain equivalent. 2/ ERS estimate of cereal use. Totals may not add due to rounding. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Census. Table 5--Wheat: National average price received by farmers ($/bu.), 6/12/01 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | ------------------------ Farm prices ------------------------ Month | All wheat | Winter | Durum | Other spring | 99/00 00/01 | 99/00 00/01 | 99/00 00/01 | 99/00 00/01 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ June | 2.50 2.50 | 2.32 2.43 | 2.93 2.71 | 3.01 2.90 July | 2.22 2.32 | 2.12 2.23 | 2.89 2.90 | 2.93 2.74 August | 2.53 2.41 | 2.35 2.31 | 2.76 2.33 | 2.86 2.59 September | 2.58 2.44 | 2 46 2.37 | 2.29 2.32 | 2.86 2.59 October | 2.57 2.68 | 2.47 2.63 | 2.30 2.42 | 2.79 2.80 November | 2.66 2.83 | 2.42 2.70 | 2.64 2.97 | 2.94 2.97 December | 2.52 2.87 | 2.27 2.76 | 2.96 3.03 | 2.87 2.98 January | 2.51 2.85 | 2.32 2.77 | 2.90 2.94 | 2.82 2.96 February | 2.54 2.83 | 2.37 2.74 | 2.88 2.60 | 2.82 2.99 March | 2.59 2.87 | 2.37 2.85 | 2.63 2.40 | 2.85 2.99 April | 2.57 2.86 | 2.32 2.77 | 2.89 2.52 | 2.89 3.05 May 1/ | 2.59 2.98 | 2.44 2.94 | 3.02 2.53 | 2.92 3.13 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Preliminary mid-month weighted average price for current month of the 2000/01 marketing year. Source: Agricultural Prices, National Agricultural Statistics Service, USDA. Table 6-Wheat by class: Regional average price received by farmers, 6/12/01 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | -------------------- Regional farm prices -------------------- | Hard Winter | Soft Winter | Hard Spring | Soft White Month | So. Plains 1/ | Corn Belt 2/ | No. Plains 3/ | Northwest 4/ | 99/00 00/01 | 99/00 00/01 | 99/00 00/01 | 99/00 00/01 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Dollars per bushel June | 2.35 2.52 | 2.11 2.24 | 3.01 2.90 | 2.86 2.50 July | 2.15 2.40 | 1.97 1.99 | 2.93 2.74 | 2.73 2.57 August | 2.26 2.35 | 2.12 1.95 | 2.86 2.59 | 2.82 2.38 September | 2.33 2.54 | 2.14 2.03 | 2.86 2.59 | 2.84 2.43 October | 2.16 2.74 | 2.11 2.09 | 2.80 2.80 | 2.80 2.58 November | 2.14 2.80 | 2.10 2.21 | 2.95 2.97 | 2.82 2.70 December | 2.06 2.82 | 2.11 2.31 | 2.87 2.98 | 2.68 2.74 January | 2.24 2.87 | 2.22 2.41 | 2.80 2.96 | 2.72 2.72 February | 2.29 2.79 | 2.33 2.48 | 2.82 2.99 | 2.55 2.79 March | 2.34 2.86 | 2.23 2.37 | 2.85 2.99 | 2.61 2.97 April | 2.23 2.78 | 2.14 2.20 | 2.89 3.05 | 2.58 3.08 May 5/ | 2.39 2.98 | 2.19 2.37 | 2.92 3.13 | 2.65 3.13 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Average price of winter wheat in Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma, and Texas. 2/ Average price of winter wheat in Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, and Missouri. 3/ Monthly weighted U.S. average price for 'other spring' wheat. 4/ Average price of all wheat in Washington, Oregon, and Idaho. 5/ Current month of current year based on preliminary mid-month prices. Note: Regional prices are ERS estimates. Source: State prices are from Agricultural Prices, NASS, USDA. Table 7--Wheat: Average cash grain bids at selected markets ($/bu.), 6/12/01 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | KC HRW #1 | KC HRW #1 | Portland | FOB Gulf Month | ordinary | 13% protein | #1 HRW Ord. | $/mt (#2 HRW) | 99/00 00/01 | 99/00 00/01 | 99/00 00/01 | 99/00 00/01 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ June | 2.93 3.07 | 3.22 3.59 | 3.10 3.19 | 110.60 115.66 July | 2.68 2.97 | 3.39 3.25 | 2.83 3.05 | 101.04 114.60 August | 2.85 2.89 | 3.42 3.13 | 3.00 2.98 | 109.86 112.10 September | 2.92 3.13 | 3.52 3.32 | 3.12 3.26 | 113.17 121.49 October | 2.80 3.41 | 3.40 3.59 | 2.97 3.66 | 107.29 130.88 November | 2.89 3.45 | 3.54 3.60 | 2.98 3.79 | 108.76 129.51 December | 2.81 3.47 | 3.44 3.60 | 2.84 3.78 | 102.88 130.51 January | 2.90 3.54 | 3.46 3.64 | 2.95 3.82 | 106.17 134.85 February | 2.94 3.35 | 3.37 3.46 | 3.01 3.70 | 109.69 130.58 March | 2.91 3.45 | 3.29 3.50 | 2.95 3.69 | 107.22 131.81 April | 2.84 3.41 | 3.30 3.49 | 2.93 3.68 | 106.17 131.62 May | 2.95 3.49 | 3.52 3.64 | 3.07 3.76 | 111.50 135.64 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | Minneapolis | Minneapolis | Minneapolis | Minneapolis Month | DNS 13% prot. | DNS 14% prot. | DNS 15% prot. | #1 HAD milling | 99/00 00/01 | 99/00 00/01 | 99/00 00/01 | 99/00 00/01 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ June | 3.65 3.50 | 3.73 3.78 | 4.03 4.08 | N/Q 4.07 July | 3.46 3.24 | 3.68 3.50 | 4.02 3.91 | 3.92 3.85 August | 3.29 2.99 | 3.58 3.29 | 4.10 3.73 | 3.73 3.62 September | 3.32 3.10 | 3.55 3.17 | 4.07 3.37 | 4.14 4.70 October | 3.23 3.52 | 3.70 3.69 | 4.17 4.10 | 4.46 5.12 November | 3.42 3.64 | 3.78 3.77 | 4.22 4.03 | 4.80 5.51 December | 3.38 3.60 | 3.64 3.52 | 3.89 3.97 | N/Q N/Q January | 3.19 3.60 | 3.37 3.79 | 3.99 4.12 | N/Q N/Q February | 3.37 3.53 | 3.59 3.68 | 3.94 3.97 | 4.40 4.50 March | 3.44 3.45 | 3.65 3.63 | 3.95 3.98 | N/Q 4.98 April | 3.50 3.59 | 3.69 3.73 | 4.06 4.02 | 4.11 5.00 May | 3.50 3.69 | 3.80 3.88 | 4.15 4.12 | 4.25 N/Q ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | St. Louis | Chicago | Toledo | Portland Month | #2 soft red | #2 soft red | #2 soft red | #1 soft white | 99/00 00/01 | 99/00 00/01 | 99/00 00/01 | 99/00 00/01 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ June | 2.31 2.59 | 2.20 2.41 | 2.18 2.27 | 3.17 2.92 July | N/Q 2.17 | 1.94 2.14 | 2.02 2.06 | 3.06 2.78 August | 2.22 2.04 | 2.09 2.08 | 2.24 2.00 | 3.14 2.65 September | 2.48 2.06 | 2.12 2.13 | 2.23 1.98 | 3.25 2.78 October | 2.31 2.41 | 1.98 2.36 | 2.12 2.15 | 3.24 2.86 November | 2.50 2.42 | 1.96 2.42 | 2.06 2.15 | 3.09 2.94 December | 2.26 2.48 | 2.12 2.47 | 2.00 2.26 | 2.83 2.98 January | 2.38 2.52 | 2.34 2.57 | 2.23 2.43 | 2.91 3.01 February | 2.51 2.55 | 2.38 2.49 | 2.26 2.33 | 2.88 3.15 March | 2.40 2.53 | 2.34 2.56 | 2.17 2.36 | 2.84 3.26 April | 2.38 2.40 | 2.30 2.52 | 2.11 2.32 | 2.89 3.20 May | 2.56 2.45 | 2.45 2.51 | 2.28 2.30 | 2.97 3.37 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ N/Q=no quote. Source: Grain and Feed Weekly Summary and Statistics, AMS, USDA. Table 8--Wheat: U.S. exports and imports for last 6 months, 6/12/01 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Exports, (1,000 bu.) 2000/2001 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Item 1/ | October November December January February March ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Wheat grain | 82,716 86,034 94,705 60,743 85,797 71,502 Wheat flour | 4,165 2,332 2,741 2,236 2,365 2,200 Products | 279 257 349 297 283 291 Total | 87,159 88,623 97,795 63,275 88,445 73,992 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Imports, (1,000 bu.) 2000/2001 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Item 1/ | October November December January February March -------------|---------------------------------------------------------------- Wheat grain | 7,158 7,295 6,099 4,526 4,979 5,945 Wheat flour | 787 742 777 833 688 769 Products | 1,182 1,390 1,264 1,204 1,049 1,355 Total | 9,127 9,426 8,140 6,563 6,717 8,070 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Census. 1/ Wheat flour and products converted to wheat grain equivalent. Totals may not add due to rounding. Table 9--Wheat: U.S. exports, Census and Export Sales comparison, 6/12/01 1/ - ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- | 1998/99 | 1999/2000 | 2000/01 (as of 5/31/01) Importing |-----------------------------------|-------------------------- country | | Ship- |Outstanding| Total | Shipments | ments | sales | ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Data | | Export | | Export | Export Source | Census | sales | Census | sales | Sales ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | 1,000 metric tons Country: | Egypt | 4,516 | 4,516 | 3,923 | 4,168 | 4,705 55 4,759 Japan | 3,055 | 3,201 | 3,172 | 3,122 | 3,124 170 3,294 Philippines | 1,682 | 1,749 | 2,126 | 2,175 | 2,024 95 2,119 Mexico | 1,733 | 1,860 | 1,832 | 1,963 | 2,027 114 2,141 EU | 1,421 | 1,407 | 1,330 | 1,300 | 1,429 135 1,563 S. Korea | 1,532 | 1,366 | 1,670 | 1,475 | 1,404 57 1,460 Nigeria | 1,238 | 1,300 | 1,127 | 1,300 | 1,428 97 1,525 Taiwan | 889 | 920 | 983 | 1,005 | 1,031 23 1,054 Israel | 716 | 734 | 820 | 917 | 708 13 721 Colombia | 535 | 509 | 779 | 726 | 626 9 635 Total grain | 27,402 | 25,555 | 28,047 | 25,453 | 25,819 1,167 26,986 Total(incl) | | | | | products) | 28,209 | 25,648 | 29,158 | 25,500 | 25,856 1,172 27,028 USDA forecast | | | | | of Census | | | | | 28,985 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/Export sales and shipments from USDA's weekly U.S. Export Sales report. Wheat Outlook, WHS-0601, ERS, June 14, 2001 Page 12 END_OF_FILE