WHEAT OUTLOOK August 14, 2001 August 2001, WHS-0801 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board -------------------------------------------------------------------------- WHEAT OUTLOOK is issued 11 times a year by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. Electronic release only; no published copies are available. WHEAT OUTLOOK is supplemented by an annual WHEAT YEARBOOK. The yearbook summary for 2001 was released on March 27, 2001. Yearbooks are available in print from USDA Order Desk. For the 2001 issue, call 1-800-999-6779 (703-605-6220) and ask for stock #ERS-WHS-2001, $21. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Summary All wheat production is placed at 1.98 billion bushels, up 1 percent from the July forecast but down 11 percent from 2000. Based on August 1 conditions, the U.S. yield is forecast at 40.2 bushels per acre, up 0.2 bushels from last month. Forecast production is 11 million bushels above a month earlier as a larger winter wheat crop (19 million bushel increase) more than offsets a smaller spring wheat crop, including durum (8 million bushel decrease). Imports are down 5 million bushels because of a sharply lower Canadian crop. With no change in total use from last month, projected U.S. 2001/02 ending stocks of wheat are up 6 million bushels from last month. Projected 2001/02 wheat prices are unchanged at $2.70 to $3.30 per bushel. Farm prices are expected to follow a normal seasonal pattern in 2001/02, hitting seasonal lows during harvest (June through September), then increasing to reflect carrying charges. Global wheat ending stocks forecast for 2001/02 are 131 million tons, down more than 2 million from the previous month, and the lowest in almost two decades. The largest month-to-month change is in China, down almost 3 million tons, and the European Union (EU) stocks forecast also dropped significantly, down 1.6 million tons, with smaller reductions for Canada and Africa. However, there were increased stock prospects in the former Soviet Union, up over 2 million, and Eastern Europe, up almost 1 million. The prospect of reduced exportable supplies in Canada and the EU, two of the largest wheat export competitors, were offset by increased competition from Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union and reduced global imports. Thus, wheat importers are expected to increase purchases from the United States in coming months, maintaining U.S. export prospects for 2001/02 despite the slow pace of shipments during the first months of the marketing year. Updated Preliminary Kansas Data Show Protein Percentage and Test Weight Up Preliminary data released on August 8 by the Kansas Department of Agriculture indicate that protein and test weight are up from last year's crop. These estimates are based on data from 9,196 carlot samples from 62 counties that were tested by the Kansas Grain Inspection Service, Inc. The samples were tested for protein content, test weight, and other grade determining factors. Test weight averaged 61.0 pounds per bushel, up from last year's average of 59.9 pounds and the 10-year average of 60.1 pounds. Protein is averaging 12.2 percent, up from 11.9 percent for 2000 and the 10-year average of 12.1 percent. Samples of wheat grading U.S. No. 1, at 69 percent, are above the 39 percent of last year. Twenty-nine percent graded U.S. No. 2, compared with 52 percent in 2000. Only 2 percent of the samples graded U.S. No. 3 or below. Average dockage content of all samples is 0.8 percent, up from .6 percent in 2000. Seventy-one percent of all samples graded had from 0.1 to 0.9 percent dockage, compared with 89 percent last year. The data are summarized by the Kansas Agricultural Statistics Service. The Kansas Wheat Commission funded the collection and publication of the data. The reports are available electronically at: http://www.nass.usda.gov/ks/ whtqual.htm. Additional tests to determine milling quality will be made by the Kansas State University Department of Grain Science and Industry, and the results will be published later in the 2001 Wheat Quality Bulletin. Winter Wheat Analysis The final winter wheat production forecast is 1.39 billion bushels. This is up 1 percent from last month, but down 11 percent from 2000. The U.S. yield is forecast at 43.8 bushels per acre, up 0.6 bushels from last month. Hard Red Winter Wheat (HRW)-- HRW harvest was complete in the central and southern Great Plains. Compared with last month, forecasted head counts from the Objective Yield surveys in the six HRW States (Colorado, Kansas, Montana, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Texas) are virtually unchanged, while weight per head is up slightly. However, compared with past years, the head count forecasts are well below average in all six States, but weights are well above average in all but Montana. Dry conditions in Montana have resulted in the lowest head weights since 1988. Forecasted HRW yields improved again this month in Kansas, and more than offset the reduced yields forecasted for Montana. Total HRW output in 2001 is forecast at 796 million bushels, 14 million above the July forecast. This forecast is down 48 million bushels from 2000, and 255 million bushels from 1999. Total 2001/02 HRW use is projected at 948 million bushels as exports and feed and residual use were increased slightly. Projected ending stocks for HRW are 256 million bushels, down 6 million bushels from last month and down sharply from 408 million bushels for 2000/01. Soft Red Winter Wheat (SRW)--Harvest was complete in most SRW wheat States. Harvested yields were better than previously expected in several SRW States. Record yields are forecast in Illinois, Kentucky, Missouri, and Tennessee. Collective head counts in the SRW objective yield States (Illinois, Missouri, Ohio) are about the same as last month and slightly above average. Collective head weights are higher than last month and well above average. Ohio head weight is at a near record-level. Total 2001 SRW wheat production is forecast at 386 million bushels, up 5 million bushels from last month, but down 85 million from last year. Total 2001/02 SRW use is projected at 426 million bushels, unchanged from last month. Projected ending stocks for SRW are 94 million bushels, up from last month because of the higher production, but down sharply from 135 million bushels for 2000/01. White Winter Wheat--White winter (WW) wheat production is forecast at 204 million bushels, up slightly from last month, but down 45 million bushels from 2001. Crop conditions remain below normal in the Pacific Northwest (Idaho, Oregon, Washington). Dry conditions caused the Idaho crop to ripen rapidly, especially in the northern part of the State. Growers in Michigan and New York are finding yields to be lower than expected. Spring Wheat Analysis Spring wheat acres, including Durum, for harvest as grain are forecast at 17.7 million bushels, down 2 percent from 2000. Other Spring Wheat--Harvested area for 2001 is forecast at 14.7 million acres, unchanged from last month, but down 2 percent from last year. Dryland growers in southern Idaho are experiencing drought conditions. Irrigation water is short in some areas of the State. Harvest has just begun in the lower elevation areas of Idaho. Later planted fields in Montana appear to be benefiting from above-normal rainfall during July, but the rain was too late for some of the earlier planted crop. Development of the North Dakota crop has been behind normal due to late plantings. Condition ratings declined during July due to continued wet soils and high humidity. Total 2001 hard red spring (HRS) output is forecast at 467 million bushels, down 6 million from last month because of reduced yields in North Dakota. HRS production is forecast 32 million bushels below last year. Total projected HRS use for 2001/02 is 564 million bushels, unchanged from last month. Projected ending stocks for HRS are 172 million bushels, down 9 million from last month and down from 210 million bushels from last year. White spring wheat production in 2001 is forecast at 41 million bushels, slightly up from last month but down 12 million bushels from last year. Total white wheat production is 244 million bushels, unchanged from last month because of offsetting changes in spring and winter wheat production, but down 57 million from last year. Total white wheat use is 261 million bushels, down 20 million bushels from last month, with reduced exports and feed and residual use. Total white wheat ending stocks are 19 million bushels higher than last month, but still 11 million bushels below last year. Durum Wheat Area for harvest as grain is forecast at 2.98 million acres, unchanged from last month, but down 17 percent from last year. Development of the North Dakota durum crop accelerated during July due to above normal temperatures. Rains, high humidity, and wet soil in the major durum growing area of the State led to lower condition ratings. As of August 5, 44 percent of the North Dakota crop was rated good to excellent compared with 60 the week before and 55 last year, according to the North Dakota Agricultural Statistics Service. The Montana crop has benefited from above-normal rainfall during July. Durum wheat production is forecast at 91.8 million bushels, down 2 million bushels from last month and 18 million bushels below 2000. The U.S. yield is forecast at 30.9 bushels per acre, 0.7 bushel less than last month. Projected Durum use for 2001/02 is 132 million bushels, unchanged from last month. Projected ending stocks for Durum are 29 million bushels, down 4 million from last month and down from 45 million bushels for 2000/01. Durum exports forecast for the 2000/01 marketing year in the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates are 50 million bushels. This level of durum exports is different than the 62 million bushels of wheat grain, flour, and products on a wheat equivalent, based on data reported by the Bureau of the Census. The USDA has submitted several potential revisions to the Bureau of the Census for evaluation. The 50 million bushels currently estimated for 2000/01 assumes that most of these shipments will eventually be reclassified by Census as one of the other classes of wheat. The present estimate of all wheat exports, at 1,061 million bushels, is not expected to change. Food Use Estimates Revised With Census Report The Bureau of the Census released the 2000 annual summary of the Flour Milling Products report on July 30, 2001. The new data led to revisions in food use estimates for both the 1999/2000 and 2000/01 wheat marketing years. The final food use estimate for 1999/2000 is 928.945 million bushels, up 4.131 million bushels from the previous estimate. The projected food use for 2000/01, at 960 million bushels, is the same as last month, although adjustments were made by quarter. The Census Bureau is expected to release the report for the second calendar quarter of 2001 later this month. This information will firm up the food use estimate for 2000/01, but the estimate will not be finalized until the annual summary for 2001 is scheduled to be released by Census in August 2002. Karnal Bunt Compensation Plan Published The USDA released information on the compensation plans for those affected by Karnal bunt. The amended Karnal bunt regulations were published in the Federal Register. Vol. 66, No.151. August 6, 2001. The regulations provide for the payment of compensation for certain growers, handlers, seed companies, owners of grain storage facilities, flour millers, and participants in the National Karnal Bunt Survey who incurred losses and expenses because of Karnal bunt during certain years. The published document can be found at http://frwebgate.access.gpo.gov/cgi- bin/getdoc.cgi?dbname=2001_register&docid=01-19661-filed.pdf. World Wheat Stocks Forecast Dropped to the Lowest Since 1982/83 Global wheat ending stocks forecast for 2001/02 are 131 million tons, down more than 2 million from the previous month, and the lowest in almost two decades. The largest month-to-month change is in China, down almost 3 million tons, and the EU stocks forecast also dropped significantly, down 1.6 million tons, with smaller reductions for Canada and Africa. However, there were increased stocks prospects in the former Soviet Union, up over 2 million, and Eastern Europe, up almost 1 million. This months modifications to forecast 2001/02 wheat supply and use for China include reduced production and imports leading to lower stocks. Chinas forecast wheat production was reduced 2 million tons to 94 million because recently released official estimates of Chinas summer grain crop (mostly winter wheat), indicate lower area. Moreover, drought has reduced prospects for spring wheat. Despite a second year of drought-reduced production, wheat prices in China have shown little increase because large stocks have provided ample supplies. Thus, projected imports for China were cut in half to only 1 million tons. While Chinas production and import forecasts were reduced, consumption prospects were not changed, dropping projected stock levels to 32 million tons, less than half the estimated level of 2 years earlier. However, although down sharply, Chinas 2001/02 forecast ending stocks are still almost twice as large as expected U.S. stocks. Projected EU stocks also declined this month. EU 2001/02 production prospects were reduced more than 2 million tons this month to 94 million, as reports on the ongoing harvest indicate a smaller-than-expected crop, especially for France. The EU is expected to increase imports nearly 1 million tons, with half coming from outside the EU countries. Forecast EU exports to the rest of the world are down a million tons this month to 12.5 million. With forecast 2001/02 use in the EU down only slightly this month, ending stocks are projected down 1.6 million tons to 13 million, the lowest in 5 years. Canadas 2001/02 ending stocks are forecast down 0.4 million tons this month to 7.2 million, the lowest in 4 years. Production prospects declined 2.5 million tons to 22.5 million this month as drought centered in southwestern Saskatchewan and western Alberta reduced prospects. Projected exports dropped 1.5 million tons and forecast feed use in Canada was reduced 0.6 million. Projected 2001/02 ending stocks in the former Soviet Union increased this month by 2.2 million tons. Russia reported a better-than-expected winter wheat harvest, up 1 million tons this month. Stocks had been forecast at near minimal levels, so the increased production directly boosted stocks prospects. Wheat production prospects increased 2 million tons in Kazakstan, with favorable rains for spring wheat. Kazakstans export prospects only increased 0.5 million tons because of the high cost of transportation to markets outside the former Soviet Union and limited demand within the region. Kazastans domestic use is projected up only slightly this month because of the limited number of animals for feeding. The small adjustments to use leave Kazakstans ending stocks forecast up 1.2 million tons this month. Eastern Europes forecast 2001/02 ending stocks increased 0.8 million tons this month. Production prospects increased nearly 3 million tons as harvest reports indicated better-than expected crops in Romania, Hungary, and Poland. Increased feed use is expected, up over 1 million tons this month, and export prospects increased almost 1 million tons. Imports were reduced slightly. The prospect of reduced exportable supplies in Canada and the EU, two of the largest wheat export competitors, were offset by increased competition from Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union and reduced global imports. Thus, wheat importers are expected to increase purchases from the United States in coming months, maintaining U.S. export prospects for 2001/02 despite the slow pace of shipments during the first months of the marketing year. The next electronic Wheat Outlook report will be issued on September 14, 2001. ============================================================================== Information Contacts: Gary Vocke (Situation Coordinator) (202) 694-5285 Edward W. Allen (International Analyst) (202) 694-5288 Electronic copies are available at: World Wide Website www.ers.usda.gov ============================================================================== Debate on the 2002 farm bill is intensifying, with a wide range of ideas emerging on how best to address the needs of farmers and other constituencies. A recently released ERS report, Wheat: Background and Issues for Farm Legislation, provides information on topics important to the debate, including market conditions, policy proposals, WTO considerations, and the interactions between policy and markets. This online-only report is the first of the occasional Wheat Outlook supplements that will provide timely analysis on specific topics. Readers will no longer have to wait for the Wheat Situation and Outlook Yearbook for all of the in-depth special reports on the wheat sector. ============================================================================= Table 1--Wheat: U.S. market year supply and disappearance, 8/14/01 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Item 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01E 2001/02P ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Area: (mil. ac.) National toal base 87.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Eff.base/Ctr. acres 0,50/92,85 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 CRP base retired 10.6 10.1 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 Planted 75.1 70.4 65.8 62.7 62.5 59.6 Harvested 62.8 62.8 59.0 53.8 53.0 49.3 Yield: (bu/acre) 36.3 39.5 43.2 42.7 41.9 40.2 Supply: (mil. bu.) Beginning stocks 376.0 443.6 722.5 945.9 949.7 873.1 Production 2,277.4 2,481.5 2,547.3 2,299.0 2,223.4 1,984.6 Imports 1/ 92.3 94.9 103.0 94.5 89.8 90.0 Total supply 2,745.7 3,020.0 3,372.8 3,339.4 3,263.0 2,947.7 Use: Food 890.7 914.1 909.7 928.9 960.0 970.0 Seed 102.3 92.5 80.5 91.6 79.7 87.0 Feed and residual 307.6 250.5 394.4 279.6 288.7 225.0 Total domestic 1,300.6 1,257.1 1,384.7 1,300.1 1,328.4 1,282.0 Exports 1/ 1,001.5 1,040.4 1,042.2 1,089.5 1,061.5 1,050.0 Total use 2,302.1 2,297.5 2,426.9 2,389.7 2,389.9 2,332.0 Ending stocks: 443.6 722.5 945.9 949.7 873.1 615.7 Farmer-owned reserve 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 CCC inventory 2/ 93.0 94.0 128.0 104.0 97.0 94.0 Free stocks 350.6 628.5 817.9 845.7 776.1 521.7 Stocks-to-use ratio 19.3 31.4 39.0 39.7 36.5 26.4 Prices: ($/bu.) Target price 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Loan rate 2.58 2.58 2.58 2.58 2.58 2.58 Contract rate 3/ 0.87 0.63 0.66 0.64 0.59 0.47 Ave. farm price 4.30 3.38 2.65 2.48 2.62 2.70-3.30 Contract pmts. (mil. dollars) 3/ 1,941 1,412 2,718 3,829 3,619 1,414 Market value of production (mil. dollars) 9,782 8,287 6,781 5,702 5,825 5,954 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Source: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, WAOB, USDA. Totals may not add due to rounding. E=Estimated, P=Projected, N.A.=not applicable. 1/ Imports and exports include flour and other products expressed in wheat equivalent. 2/ Includes Food Security Reserve. 3/ Deficiency payments prior to 1996/97. Table 2--Wheat: U.S. market year supply and disappearance, 8/14/01 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 2000/01E HRW HRS SRW White Durum All wheat ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Area: Million acres Planted 30.38 14.36 9.51 4.34 3.94 62.53 Harvested 23.56 13.58 8.14 4.18 3.57 53.03 Yield: (bu/acre) 35.82 36.71 57.85 71.85 30.76 41.93 Supply: Million bushels Beg. stocks 457.9 218.0 133.0 91.0 49.8 949.7 Production 843.7 498.5 470.9 300.6 109.8 2,223.4 Imports 2/ 0.0 58.7 0.0 5.2 25.8 89.8 Table 2--Wheat: U.S. market year supply and disappearance, 6/12/2001 Total 1,301.6 775.2 603.9 396.8 185.4 3,263.0 Utilization: Total domestic 491.2 335.2 292.9 118.8 90.3 1,328.4 Exports 2/ 402.5 230.0 176.0 203.0 50.0 1,061.5 Total 893.7 565.2 468.9 321.8 140.3 2,389.9 Ending stocks: 408.0 210.0 135.0 75.0 45.2 873.1 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 2001/02P HRW HRS SRW White Durum All wheat ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Area: Million acres Planted 29.43 14.41 8.43 4.30 3.04 59.60 Harvested 21.36 13.89 7.04 4.06 2.98 49.33 Yield: (bu/acre) 37.25 33.63 54.76 60.13 30.87 40.23 Supply: Million bushels Beg. stocks 408.0 210.0 135.0 75.0 45.2 873.1 Production 795.7 467.0 385.8 244.3 91.8 1,984.6 Imports 2/ 1.0 60.0 0.0 6.0 23.0 90.0 Total 1,204.7 737.0 520.8 325.3 160.0 2,947.7 Utilization: Total domestic 503.5 329.5 261.5 96.0 91.5 1,282.0 Exports 2/ 445.0 235.0 165.0 165.0 40.0 1,050.0 Total 948.5 564.5 426.5 261.0 131.5 2,332.0 Ending stocks: 256.2 172.5 94.3 64.3 28.5 615.7 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Totals may not add due to rounding. E=Estimated, P=Projected. 1/ ERS estimates of area, yield, and domestic use. 2/ Imports and exports include flour and other products expressed in wheat equivalent. Source: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, WAOB, USDA Table 3--Wheat: Quarterly supply and disappearance (1,000 bu.), 8/14/01 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Market Produc- Imports Supply Food Seed Feed Exports Ending Year tion 2/ 2/ stocks ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Million bushels 1997/98 Jun-Aug 2,481 23 2,948 228 3 352 288 2,076 Sep-Nov --- 23 2,099 239 59 (113) 296 1,619 Dec-Feb --- 24 1,643 219 2 0 255 1,167 Mar-May --- 26 1,192 228 29 11 201 722 Mkt. year 2,481 95 3,020 914 92 251 1,040 722 1998/99 Jun-Aug 2,547 24 3,294 226 1 425 257 2,385 Sep-Nov --- 24 2,409 241 55 (74) 292 1,896 Dec-Feb --- 28 1,923 213 1 12 247 1,450 Mar-May --- 27 1,477 230 23 32 246 946 Mkt. year 2,547 103 3,373 910 81 394 1,042 946 1999/00 E: Jun-Aug 2,299 31 3,276 230 6 270 324 2,445 Sep-Nov --- 19 2,465 241 55 (8) 291 1,886 Dec-Feb --- 19 1,905 223 2 28 236 1,417 Mar-May --- 25 1,442 235 28 (10) 239 950 Mkt. year 2,299 95 3,339 929 92 280 1,090 950 2000/01 P: Jun-Aug 2,223 20 3,194 239 1 315 286 2,353 Sep-Nov --- 25 2,378 253 50 (24) 293 1,805 Dec-Feb --- 21 1,827 231 4 4 250 1,338 Mar-May --- 23 1,361 238 25 (7) 233 873 Mkt. year 2,223 90 3,263 960 80 289 1,061 873 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Totals might not add due to rounding. E=Estimated, P=Projected. 1/ Imports and exports include flour and selected products expressed in wheat equivalent. Table 4--Monthly food use estimates for last 12 months, (1,000 bu.), 8/14/01 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Item | April May June July August September ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Mill grind + | 74,772 76,451 73,145 77,195 84,369 81,127 Food imports 1/ + | 1,643 1,958 1,809 1,846 2,051 1,755 Non-flour | food use 2/ + | 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 Food exports 1/ - | 3,443 1,494 3,834 4,067 1,902 3,465 Food use = | 74,972 78,916 73,120 76,974 86,518 81,416 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Item | October November December January February March ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Mill grind + | 85,985 82,301 77,252 74,807 74,214 78,737 Food imports 1/ + | 1,967 2,130 2,039 2,036 1,734 2,122 Non-flour | food use 2/ + | 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 Food exports 1/ - | 4,442 2,588 3,021 2,532 2,454 2,488 Food use = | 85,510 83,842 76,270 76,312 75,494 80,371 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Wheat flour and flour products converted to wheat grain equivalent. 2/ ERS estimate of cereal use. Totals may not add due to rounding. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Census. T able 5--Wheat: National average price received by farmers ($/bu.), 8/14/01 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | ------------------------ Farm prices ------------------------ Month | All wheat | Winter | Durum | Other spring | 00/01 01/02 | 00/01 01/02 | 00/01 01/02 | 00/01 01/02 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ June 1/ | 2.50 2.74 | 2.43 2.68 | 2.71 3.37 | 2.90 3.03 July | 2.32 2.72 | 2.23 2.69 | 2.90 2.56 | 2.74 2.98 August | 2.41 | 2.31 | 2.33 | 2.59 September | 2.44 | 2 37 | 2.32 | 2.59 October | 2.68 | 2.63 | 2.42 | 2.80 November | 2.83 | 2.70 | 2.97 | 2.97 December | 2.87 | 2.76 | 3.03 | 2.98 January | 2.85 | 2.77 | 2.94 | 2.96 February | 2.83 | 2.74 | 2.60 | 2.99 March | 2.87 | 2.85 | 2.40 | 2.99 April | 2.86 | 2.77 | 2.52 | 3.05 May | 2.98 | 2.94 | 2.53 | 3.13 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Preliminary mid-month weighted average price for current month of the 2000/01 marketing year. Source: Agricultural Prices, National Agricultural Statistics Service, USDA. Table 6 Wheat by class: Regional average price received by farmers, 8/14/01 ----------------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------------- Regional farm prices -------------------- | Hard Winter | Soft Winter | Hard Spring | Soft White Month | So. Plains 1/ | Corn Belt 2/ | No. Plains 3/ | Northwest 4/ | 00/01 01/02 | 00/01 01/02 | 00/01 01/02 | 00/01 01/02 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Dollars per bushel June 5/ | 2.52 2.85 | 2.24 2.32 | 2.90 3.03 | 2.50 3.09 July | 2.40 2.27 | 1.99 2.47 | 2.74 2.98 | 2.57 3.08 August | 2.35 | 1.95 | 2.59 | 2.38 September | 2.54 | 2.03 | 2.59 | 2.43 October | 2.74 | 2.09 | 2.80 | 2.58 November | 2.80 | 2.21 | 2.97 | 2.70 December | 2.82 | 2.31 | 2.98 | 2.74 January | 2.87 | 2.41 | 2.96 | 2.72 February | 2.79 | 2.48 | 2.99 | 2.79 March | 2.86 | 2.37 | 2.99 | 2.97 April | 2.78 | 2.20 | 3.05 | 3.08 May | 2.98 | 2.37 | 3.13 | 3.13 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Average price of winter wheat in Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma, and Texas. 2/ Average price of winter wheat in Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, and Missouri. 3/ Monthly weighted U.S. average price for Aother spring@ wheat. 4/ Average price of all wheat in Washington, Oregon, and Idaho. 5/ Current month of current year based on preliminary mid-month prices. Note: Regional prices are ERS estimates. Source: State prices are from Agricultural Prices, NASS, USDA. Table 7--Wheat: Average cash grain bids at selected markets ($/bu.), 8/14/01 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | KC HRW #1 | KC HRW #1 | Portland | FOB Gulf Month | ordinary | 13% protein | #1 HRW Ord. | $/mt (#2 HRW) | 00/01 01/02 | 00/01 01/02 | 00/01 01/02 | 00/01 01/02 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ June | 3.07 3.32 | 3.59 3.47 | 3.19 3.59 | 115.66 128.52 July | 2.97 3.20 | 3.25 3.35 | 3.05 3.40 | 114.60 August | 2.89 | 3.13 | 2.98 | 112.10 September | 3.13 | 3.32 | 3.26 | 121.49 October | 3.41 | 3.59 | 3.66 | 130.88 November | 3.45 | 3.60 | 3.79 | 129.51 December | 3.47 | 3.60 | 3.78 | 130.51 January | 3.54 | 3.64 | 3.82 | 134.85 February | 3.35 | 3.46 | 3.70 | 130.58 March | 3.45 | 3.50 | 3.69 | 131.81 April | 3.41 | 3.49 | 3.68 | 131.62 May | 3.49 | 3.64 | 3.76 | 135.64 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | Minneapolis | Minneapolis | Minneapolis | Minneapolis Month | DNS 13% prot. | DNS 14% prot. | DNS 15% prot. | #1 HAD milling | 00/01 01/02 | 00/01 01/02 | 00/01 01/02 | 00/01 01/02 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ June | 3.50 3.63 | 3.78 3.81 | 4.08 4.07 | 4.07 4.80 July | 3.24 3.51 | 3.50 3.72 | 3.91 4.01 | 3.85 4.75 August | 2.99 | 3.29 | 3.73 | 3.62 September | 3.10 | 3.17 | 3.37 | 4.70 October | 3.52 | 3.69 | 4.10 | 5.12 November | 3.64 | 3.77 | 4.03 | 5.51 December | 3.60 | 3.52 | 3.97 | N/Q January | 3.60 | 3.79 | 4.12 | N/Q February | 3.53 | 3.68 | 3.97 | 4.50 March | 3.45 | 3.63 | 3.98 | 4.98 April | 3.59 | 3.73 | 4.02 | 5.00 May | 3.69 | 3.88 | 4.12 | N/Q ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | St. Louis | Chicago | Toledo | Portland Month | #2 soft red | #2 soft red | #2 soft red | #1 soft white | 00/01 01/02 | 00/01 01/02 | 00/01 01/02 | 00/01 01/02 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ June | 2.59 2.41 | 2.41 2.40 | 2.27 2.21 | 2.92 3.37 July | 2.17 2.67 | 2.14 2.56 | 2.06 2.52 | 2.78 3.45 August | 2.04 | 2.08 | 2.00 | 2.65 September | 2.06 | 2.13 | 1.98 | 2.78 October | 2.41 | 2.36 | 2.15 | 2.86 November | 2.42 | 2.42 | 2.15 | 2.94 December | 2.48 | 2.47 | 2.26 | 2.98 January | 2.52 | 2.57 | 2.43 | 3.01 February | 2.55 | 2.49 | 2.33 | 3.15 March | 2.53 | 2.56 | 2.36 | 3.26 April | 2.40 | 2.52 | 2.32 | 3.20 May | 2.45 | 2.51 | 2.30 | 3.37 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ N/Q=no quote. Source: Grain and Feed Weekly Summary and Statistics, AMS, USDA. Table 8--Wheat: U.S. exports and imports for last 6 months, 8/14/01 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Exports, (1,000 bu.) 2000/2001 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Item 1/ | December January February March April May ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Wheat grain | 94,705 60,743 85,797 71,502 83,157 68,908 Wheat flour | 2,332 2,236 2,365 2,200 3,868 2,163 Products | 349 297 283 291 267 269 Total | 97,795 63,275 88,445 73,992 87,292 71,341 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Imports, (1,000 bu.) 2000/2001 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Item 1/ | December January February March April May -------------|---------------------------------------------------------------- Wheat grain | 6,099 4,526 4,979 5,945 5,171 5,653 Wheat flour | 777 833 688 769 729 742 Products | 1,264 1,204 1,049 1,355 1,280 1,274 Total | 8,140 6,563 6,717 8,070 7,180 7,669 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Census. 1/ Wheat flour and products converted to wheat grain equivalent. Totals may not add due to rounding. Table 9--Wheat: U.S. exports, Census and Export Sales comparison, 8/14/01 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | 1999/2000 | 2000/01 | 2001/02 (as of 8/02/01) Importing |-----------------------------------|-------------------------- country | | Ship- |Outstanding| Total | Shipments | ments | sales | ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Data | | Export | | Export | Export Source | Census | sales | Census | sales | Sales ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | 1,000 metric tons Country: | Egypt | 4,006 | 4,168 | 4,629 | 4,705 | 285 265 550 Japan | 3,172 | 3,122 | 3,064 | 3,124 | 281 370 651 Philippines | 2,126 | 2,175 | 1,977 | 2,024 | 309 351 660 Mexico | 1,832 | 1,963 | 2,000 | 2,027 | 295 199 494 EU | 1,330 | 1,300 | 1,300 | 1,429 | 146 60 206 S. Korea | 1,670 | 1,475 | 1,483 | 1,404 | 213 192 405 Nigeria | 1,127 | 1,185 | 1,317 | 1,428 | 391 291 682 Taiwan | 983 | 1,005 | 1,045 | 1,031 | 96 69 165 Israel | 894 | 917 | 694 | 870 | 46 26 71 Colombia | 779 | 726 | 607 | 626 | 100 103 202 Total grain | 28,047 | 25,453 | 27,694 | 25, 819| 3,495 3,784 7,280 Total(incl) | | | | | products) | 29,158 | 25,500 | 28,889 | 25, 856| 3,500 3,789 7,289 USDA forecast | | | | | of Census | 28,576 | | | | ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/Export sales and shipments from USDA=s weekly U.S. Export Sales report. END_OF_FILE