WHEAT OUTLOOK September 17, 2001 September 2001, WHS-0901 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- WHEAT OUTLOOK is issued 11 times a year by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. Electronic release only; no published copies are available. WHEAT OUTLOOK is supplemented by an annual WHEAT YEARBOOK. The yearbook summary for 2001 was released on March 27, 2001. Yearbooks are available in print from USDA Order Desk. For the 2001 issue, call 1-800-999-6779 (703-605- 6220) and ask for stock #ERS-WHS-2001, $21. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Summary Projected U.S. 2001/02 ending stocks of wheat are up 16 million bushels from last month to 632 million bushels due to higher production and reduced food use. Forecast production is 6 million bushels above last month because of higher spring wheat yields. Total wheat production is 1,991 million bushels. Projected food use is down 10 million bushels from last month and only slightly above last year because of an expected improvement in milling yields from the unusually low levels in 2000/01. The projected price range is reduced 20 cents on the high end to $2.70 to $3.10 per bushel because of lower than expected prices during the first quarter of the marketing year. Global 2001/02 wheat supply, use, and ending stocks are up from last month, led by larger crops in Russia, Ukraine, Syria, India, Brazil, and several other countries. The larger production will lead to expanding exports by a number of these countries. Also, Brazil's larger crop is expected to reduce its import needs. However, global imports are up from last month because of a smaller crop in Turkey, increased purchases of wheat for feeding by South Korea, and expanding consumption in Nigeria. Smaller crops in Australia and Canada will reduce exports and ending stocks, while the smaller European Union (EU) crop reduces expected domestic use and ending stocks. Spring Wheat Production Up Other spring wheat production is forecast at 520 million bushels, up 12 million bushels from last month, but down 31 million bushels from last season. The forecast of U.S. average yield is 35.3 bushels per acre. This is 0.8 bushel per acre higher than a month ago. Hard red spring wheat production is up 13 million bushels from August at 480 million bushels, while white spring wheat production is down 1 million bushels from last month. Other spring wheat area for harvest as grain is forecast at 14.7 million acres, unchanged from last month, but up .3 million acres from last year. Spring wheat harvest is nearly complete, as an estimated 96 percent of the spring wheat has been harvested as of the week ending September 9 in the major producing States. The harvest pace is ahead of last years 92 percent and the 5-year average of 87 percent for this time of the year. In North Dakota, 97 percent of the crop has been harvested, significantly ahead of the 5-year average of 82 percent. Harvest was complete in South Dakota. Dry conditions continued to plague growers in Oregon and Washington. Low snow pack, power buyback programs, and drought conditions created uncertainty for irrigation water supplies in Idaho during the growing season. August was extremely hot and dry in Montana. Heat and high humidity in early August promoted fusarium head blight infections and leaf diseases in northwest North Dakota. Warm, dry conditions during the rest of the month pushed the crop development well ahead of average and near last years fast pace. Objective Yield survey data show plant populations above average in Minnesota and North Dakota, but below average in Montana. Head weight forecasts are above average in Minnesota and North Dakota, but slightly below average in Montana. Preliminary quality data for hard red spring wheat is provided in the Weekly Harvest Report by the U.S. Wheat Associates (www.uswheat.org). The September 10 report has an average test weight of 59.7 pounds per bushel for 278 samples (out of an expected 350 samples to be tested), less than last years 60.4 and 1999s 59.3. Protein content averaged 14.4 percent, the same as last year and above 1999s 14.1. Falling number is averaging 411 seconds, up from last years 379 and 1999s 313. Durum wheat production is forecast at 86.5 million bushels, down 5 million bushels from last month and 23 million bushels less than 2000. The U.S. yield is now forecast at 29.1 bushels per acre, down 1.8 bushels from August. Acreage for harvest is unchanged from last month. Durum wheat area for harvest as grain is forecast at 2.98 million acres, unchanged from last month, but down .6 million acres from last year. The condition of the North Dakota crop was rated 39 percent good to excellent on August 26, down from late July and last year due mainly to fusarium head blight and leaf diseases in the major growing area of the State. Harvest began the second week of August, slightly behind last year and the average. However, as warm, dry conditions continued, harvest progress surpassed both last year and the average. As of September 9, 83 percent of the North Dakota Durum acreage was harvested, compared with 57 percent a year earlier and the average of 59. Record temperatures were routinely set and very little rainfall was received in Montana during August. North Dakotas Durum Objective Yield survey head count and weight forecasts remain lower than average. Preliminary quality data for durum wheat are also available from the Weekly Harvest Report. The September 11 report for 67 samples (out of an expected 130 samples to be tested) has an average of 58.6 pounds per bushel, less than last years 58.8 and 1999s 59.8 for the Great Plains. Protein content is averaging 14.4 percent, less than last years 16.2 and 1999s 15.6. Falling number is averaging 413 seconds, above last years 216 and 1999s 250. Food Use Down With the release of the U.S. Census Bureaus Flour Milling Products report for the second quarter of 2001, food use for both the 2000/01 and 2001/02 marketing years were lowered. All wheat used for food was lowered from 960 million bushels to 957 million bushels with the release of mill grind data through the end of the 2000/01 marketing year. Durum wheat used for food for the 2000/01 marketing year was lowered from 80 million bushels to 79.5 million bushels. Projected all-wheat food use for the 2001/02 marketing year was lowered from 970 million bushels to 960 million bushels because of an expected improvement in milling yields for hard red winter wheat from the unusually low levels in 2000/01. With better milling yields, less grain is needed to obtain the same amount of flour. Winter Wheat Planting Underway An estimated 8 percent of the 2002 winter wheat crop has been planted for the week ending September 9. This pace is equal to the 5-year average. The most advanced States and percent planted are: Washington, 29; Oklahoma, 13; Colorado, 12; Texas, 11; Nebraska, 11; and South Dakota, 10. Increased Production and Exports by the Former Soviet Union Boost World Wheat Trade Wheat production forecast for the former Soviet Union was boosted 5 million tons this month. Smaller increases were made for Eastern Europe, India, and Brazil. These increases more than offset significant reductions forecast for the EU, Canada, Turkey, and Australia. World wheat production in 2001/02 is projected to reach 571 million tons, up 3 million from a month ago, but down over 8 million from the previous year. World wheat trade in 2001/02 is forecast 1 million tons higher this month as increased exports from Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union more than offset reductions for Canada and Turkey. Forecast imports increased this month for Turkey, Nigeria, and South Korea, more than offsetting reduced imports by Brazil. Increased wheat consumption is forecast this month for the former Soviet Union, South Korea, and Nigeria, more than offsetting reductions in the EU. However, the increase in global consumption is less than the increase in production, so 2001/02 world ending stocks are forecast at 134 million tons, up 3.2 million this month. However, 2001/02 world wheat ending stocks are projected to drop 24 million tons compared with a year earlier, the largest drop in global wheat stocks since 1986/87. The 2001/02 wheat production forecast for Russia increased 3 million tons this month to 41.5 million based on recent reports that include harvest results for the virtually complete winter wheat harvest and the ongoing reaping of spring wheat. Favorable growing conditions have boosted production by more than 20 percent compared with a year earlier. The increased production is expected to result mostly in increased domestic use and a replenishment of stocks from the very low levels of the last 4 years. In addition, the wheat export forecast was increased by 0.5 million to 1.5 million tons. Kazakstan is harvesting a large wheat crop and is expected to ship significant quantities of relatively high-quality wheat to Russia. Port capacity is expected to limit exports, with barley receiving priority. Ukraine harvest reports also indicate a higher than expected wheat crop, up 1 million tons this month, to 20 million, almost double the previous years drought-plagued result. Based on the recent strong pace of sales and shipments, Ukraines wheat export forecast increased 1 million tons this month to 3.5 million. South Korea is expected to boost feed wheat imports in 2001/02 because of the ample supply from the Black Sea. This month the import forecast increased 0.5 million ton to 4.3 million. Although a sharp increase from last years reduced level, this is less than imported in 1998/99. Increasing corn prices in 2001/02 are expected to make feed wheat an attractive alternative. Canadas wheat production forecast declined 1 million tons this month as official forecasts confirmed that drought damage in western Saskatchewan and Alberta was worse than expected. Forecast exports and ending stocks declined by 0.5 and .6 million, respectively. Canadas 2001/02 production is down over 5 million tons compared with the previous year, but projected exports are down by just over 1 million. Compared with a year ago, Canada is expected to reduce wheat feeding, and reduce the stocks built up last year. Trade data indicate that Canadas 2000/01 wheat exports were slightly less than the 16.5 forecast a month ago. Trade data reported by Australia indicate that 2000/01 July/June wheat exports reached nearly 16.7 million tons, significantly higher than 16 million forecast last month. Survey-based production forecasts indicate that Australias production in 2001/02 will be even smaller than the previous years drought-reduced crop. The production forecast was reduced 1 million tons to 20.5 million, the lowest in 4 years. Both the 2001/02 export forecast and projected stocks were reduced by .5 million tons. Forecast 2001/02 EU production was reduced 1.5 million tons this month because harvest reports indicate reductions for France, Italy, and Greece that more than offset increased prospects in Germany. The lower production prospects reduced feed wheat consumption and lowered stocks. Forecast 2001/02 wheat production for Turkey dropped 1 million tons this month to 15 million, the lowest in 7 years, because of the effects of drought in the Anatolian Plateau. Preliminary information on 2000/01 indicate slightly lower imports and higher exports than previously forecast, reducing 2000/01 domestic use. With tight supplies in 2001/02 Turkey is expected to reduce exports and increase imports even more than previously forecast, becoming a net importer of over 1 million tons for the first time in 5 years. Preliminary trade data from exporters indicate that Nigeria imported more wheat in 2000/01 than previously forecast, boosting imports to a record 2.2 million tons, and increasing consumption. This growing consumption increases prospects for projected 2001/02 imports, up 0.6 million ton this month to 2.3 million. World wheat trade in 2001/02 is forecast at 107 million tons (excluding intra-EU trade), up 4 million from the previous year, and the second highest in the last 9 years. Wheat supplies in four of the five major wheat exporters are tighter in 2001/02 compared with a year earlier, with Argentina being the exception. However, increased exports from Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union are expected to provide ample supplies of relatively low- quality wheat. Much of the Black Sea wheat is expected to move into export channels in the fall, soon after harvest. After the Black Sea supplies are committed, there is a chance that reduced supplies in the United States, Canada, Australia, and the EU will support increased wheat prices, but the size of the seasonal price increase is likely to depend on the size of Argentinas wheat crop, one of the last to be harvested. The next electronic Wheat Outlook report will be issued on October 16, 2001. ============================================================================= We mourn and remember the innocent victims of terrorism. Information Contacts: Gary Vocke (Situation Coordinator) (202) 694-5285 Edward W. Allen (International Analyst) (202) 694-5288 Electronic copies are available at: World Wide Website www.ers.usda.gov ============================================================================= For several months, a wide range of ideas have emerged in the farm bill debate on how best to address the needs of farmers and other constituencies. A recently released ERS report, Wheat: Background and Issues for Farm Legislation, provides information on topics important to the debate, including market conditions, policy proposals, WTO considerations, and the interactions between policy and markets. This online-only report, http://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/WHS-0701-01/, is the first of the occasional Wheat Outlook supplements that will provide timely analysis on specific topics. Readers will no longer have to wait for the Wheat Situation and Outlook Yearbook for all of the in-depth reports and special articles on the wheat sector. ============================================================================ Table 1--Wheat: U.S. market year supply and disappearance, 9/18/01 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Item 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01E 2001/02P ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Area: (mil. ac.) National toal base 87.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Eff.base/Ctr. acres 0,50/92,85 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 CRP base retired 10.6 10.1 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 Planted 75.1 70.4 65.8 62.7 62.5 59.6 Harvested 62.8 62.8 59.0 53.8 53.0 49.3 Yield: (bu/acre) 36.3 39.5 43.2 42.7 41.9 40.4 Supply: (mil. bu.) Beginning stocks 376.0 443.6 722.5 945.9 949.7 873.1 Production 2,277.4 2,481.5 2,547.3 2,299.0 2,223.4 1,991.1 Imports 1/ 92.3 94.9 103.0 94.5 89.8 90.0 Total supply 2,745.7 3,020.0 3,372.8 3,339.4 3,263.0 2,954.2 Use: Food 890.7 914.1 909.7 928.9 957.1 960.0 Seed 102.3 92.5 80.5 91.6 79.7 87.0 Feed and residual 307.6 250.5 394.4 279.6 291.6 225.0 Total domestic 1,300.6 1,257.1 1,384.7 1,300.1 1,328.4 1,272.0 Exports 1/ 1,001.5 1,040.4 1,042.2 1,089.5 1,061.5 1,050.0 Total use 2,302.1 2,297.5 2,426.9 2,389.7 2,389.9 2,322.0 Ending stocks: 443.6 722.5 945.9 949.7 873.1 632.2 Farmer-owned reserve 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 CCC inventory 2/ 93.0 94.0 128.0 104.0 97.0 94.0 Free stocks 350.6 628.5 817.9 845.7 776.1 538.2 Stocks-to-use ratio 19.3 31.4 39.0 39.7 36.5 27.2 Prices: ($/bu.) Target price 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Loan rate 2.58 2.58 2.58 2.58 2.58 2.58 Contract rate 3/ 0.87 0.63 0.66 0.64 0.59 0.00 Ave. farm price 4.30 3.38 2.65 2.48 2.62 2.70- 3.10 Contract pmts. (mil. dollars) 3/ 1,941 1,412 2,718 3,829 3,617 2,516 Market value of production (mil. dollars) 9,782 8,287 6,781 5,702 5,825 5,774 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Source: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, WAOB, USDA. Totals may not add due to rounding. E=Estimated, P=Projected, N.A.=not applicable. 1/ Imports and exports include flour and other products expressed in wheat equivalent. 2/ Includes Food Security Reserve. 3/ Deficiency payments prior to 1996/97. Table 2--Wheat: U.S. market year supply and disappearance, 9/18/01 1/ ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2000/01E HRW HRS SRW White Durum All wheat -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Area: Million acres Planted 30.38 14.36 9.51 4.34 3.94 62.53 Harvested 23.56 13.58 8.14 4.18 3.57 53.03 Yield: (bu/acre) 35.82 36.71 57.85 71.85 30.76 41.93 Supply: Million bushels Beg. stocks 457.9 218.0 133.0 91.0 49.8 949.7 Production 843.7 498.5 470.9 300.6 109.8 2,223.4 Imports 2/ 0.0 58.7 0.0 5.2 25.8 89.8 Total 1,301.6 775.2 603.9 396.8 185.4 3,263.0 Utilization: Total domestic 491.2 335.2 292.9 118.8 90.3 1,328.4 Exports 2/ 402.5 230.0 176.0 203.0 50.0 1,061.5 Total 893.7 565.2 468.9 321.8 140.3 2,389.9 Ending stocks: 408.0 210.0 135.0 75.0 45.2 873.1 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2001/02P HRW HRS SRW White Durum All wheat ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Area: Million acres Planted 29.43 14.41 8.43 4.30 3.04 59.60 Harvested 21.36 13.89 7.04 4.06 2.98 49.33 Yield: (bu/acre) 37.25 34.56 54.76 59.87 29.06 40.36 Supply: Million bushels Beg. stocks 408.0 210.0 135.0 75.0 45.2 873.1 Production 795.7 479.9 385.8 243.2 86.5 1,991.1 Imports 2/ 1.0 54.0 0.0 10.0 25.0 90.0 Total 1,204.7 743.9 520.8 328.2 156.6 2,954.2 Utilization: Total domestic 498.5 324.5 261.5 96.0 91.5 1,272.0 Exports 2/ 445.0 235.0 170.0 160.0 40.0 1,050.0 Total 943.5 559.5 431.5 256.0 131.5 2,322.0 Ending stocks: 261.2 184.4 89.3 72.2 25.1 632.2 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Totals may not add due to rounding. E=Estimated, P=Projected. 1/ ERS estimates of area, yield, and domestic use. 2/ Imports and exports include flour and other products expressed in wheat equivalent. Source: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, WAOB, USDA Table 3--Wheat: Quarterly supply and disappearance (1,000 bu.), 9/18/01 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Market Produc- Imports Supply Food Seed Feed Exports Ending Year tion 2/ 2/ stocks ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Million bushels 1997/98 Jun-Aug 2,481 23 2,948 228 3 352 288 2,076 Sep-Nov --- 23 2,099 239 59 (113) 296 1,619 Dec-Feb --- 24 1,643 219 2 0 255 1,167 Mar-May --- 26 1,192 228 29 11 201 722 Mkt. year 2,481 95 3,020 914 92 251 1,040 722 1998/99 Jun-Aug 2,547 24 3,294 226 1 425 257 2,385 Sep-Nov --- 24 2,409 241 55 (74) 292 1,896 Dec-Feb --- 28 1,923 213 1 12 247 1,450 Mar-May --- 27 1,477 230 23 32 246 946 Mkt. year 2,547 103 3,373 910 81 394 1,042 946 1999/00 E: Jun-Aug 2,299 31 3,276 230 6 270 324 2,445 Sep-Nov --- 19 2,465 241 55 (8) 291 1,886 Dec-Feb --- 19 1,905 223 2 28 236 1,417 Mar-May --- 25 1,442 235 28 (10) 239 950 Mkt. year 2,299 95 3,339 929 92 280 1,090 950 2000/01 P: Jun-Aug 2,223 20 3,194 239 1 315 286 2,353 Sep-Nov --- 25 2,378 253 50 (24) 293 1,805 Dec-Feb --- 21 1,827 231 4 4 250 1,338 Mar-May --- 23 1,361 238 25 (7) 233 873 Mkt. year 2,223 90 3,263 960 80 289 1,061 873 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Totals might not add due to rounding. E=Estimated, P=Projected. 1/ Imports and exports include flour and selected products expressed in wheat equivalent. Table 4--Monthly food use estimates for last 12 months, (1,000 bu.), 9/18/01 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Item | July August September October November December -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Mill grind + | 77,830 85,062 81,793 86,755 83,038 77,944 Food imports 1/ + | 1,846 2,051 1,755 1,967 2,130 2,039 Non-flour | food use 2/ + | 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 Food exports 1/ - | 4,067 1,902 3,465 4,442 2,588 3,021 Food use = | 77,608 87,211 82,083 86,280 84,580 78,962 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Item | January February March April May June ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Mill grind + | 74,926 74,331 78,862 75,348 77,041 73,709 Food imports 1/ + | 2,036 1,734 2,122 2,003 2,013 2,042 Non-flour | food use 2/ + | 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 Food exports 1/ - | 2,532 2,454 2,488 4,133 2,367 1,679 Food use = | 76,430 75,611 80,495 75,218 78,687 76,072 ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Wheat flour and flour products converted to wheat grain equivalent. 2/ ERS stimate of cereal use. Totals may not add due to rounding. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Census. Table 5--Wheat: National average price received by farmers ($/bu.), 9/18/01 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- | ------------------------ Farm prices ------------------------ Month | All wheat | Winter | Durum | Other spring | 00/01 01/02 | 00/01 01/02 | 00/01 01/02 | 00/01 01/02 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- June 1/ | 2.50 2.74 | 2.43 2.68 | 2.71 3.37 | 2.90 3.03 July | 2.32 2.70 | 2.23 2.67 | 2.90 2.74 | 2.74 2.78 August | 2.41 2.63 | 2.31 2.61 | 2.33 2.74 | 2.59 2.81 September | 2.44 | 2 37 | 2.32 | 2.59 October | 2.68 | 2.63 | 2.42 | 2.80 November | 2.83 | 2.70 | 2.97 | 2.97 December | 2.87 | 2.76 | 3.03 | 2.98 January | 2.85 | 2.77 | 2.94 | 2.96 February | 2.83 | 2.74 | 2.60 | 2.99 March | 2.87 | 2.85 | 2.40 | 2.99 April | 2.86 | 2.77 | 2.52 | 3.05 May | 2.98 | 2.94 | 2.53 | 3.13 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Preliminary mid-month weighted average price for current month of the 2000/01 marketing year. Source: Agricultural Prices, National Agricultural Statistics Service, USDA. Table 6Wheat by class: Regional average price received by farmers, 9/18/01 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- | -------------------- Regional farm prices -------------------- | Hard Winter | Soft Winter | Hard Spring | Soft White Month | So. Plains 1/ | Corn Belt 2/ | No. Plains 3/ | Northwest 4/ | 00/01 01/02 | 00/01 01/02 | 00/01 01/02 | 00/01 01/02 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Dollars per bushel June 5/ | 2.52 2.85 | 2.24 2.32 | 2.90 3.03 | 2.50 3.09 July | 2.40 2.65 | 1.99 2.36 | 2.74 2.78 | 2.57 3.17 August | 2.35 2.74 | 1.95 2.37 | 2.59 2.81 | 2.38 3.12 September | 2.54 | 2.03 | 2.59 | 2.43 October | 2.74 | 2.09 | 2.80 | 2.58 November | 2.80 | 2.21 | 2.97 | 2.70 December | 2.82 | 2.31 | 2.98 | 2.74 January | 2.87 | 2.41 | 2.96 | 2.72 February | 2.79 | 2.48 | 2.99 | 2.79 March | 2.86 | 2.37 | 2.99 | 2.97 April | 2.78 | 2.20 | 3.05 | 3.08 May | 2.98 | 2.37 | 3.13 | 3.13 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Average price of winter wheat in Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma, and Texas. 2/ Average price of winter wheat in Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, and Missouri. 3/ Monthly weighted U.S. average price for Aother spring@ wheat. 4/ Average price of all wheat in Washington, Oregon, and Idaho. 5/ Current month of current year based on preliminary mid-month prices. Note: Regional prices are ERS estimates. Source: State prices are from Agricultural Prices, NASS, USDA. Table 7--Wheat: Average cash grain bids at selected markets ($/bu.), 9/18/01 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- | KC HRW #1 | KC HRW #1 | Portland | FOB Gulf Month | ordinary | 13% protein | #1 HRW Ord. | $/mt (#2 HRW) | 00/01 01/02 | 00/01 01/02 | 00/01 01/02 | 00/01 01/02 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- June | 3.07 3.32 | 3.59 3.47 | 3.19 3.59 | 115.66 128.52 July | 2.97 3.20 | 3.25 3.35 | 3.05 3.40 | 114.60 124.80 August | 2.89 | 3.13 | 2.98 | 112.10 124.95 September | 3.13 | 3.32 | 3.26 | 121.49 October | 3.41 | 3.59 | 3.66 | 130.88 November | 3.45 | 3.60 | 3.79 | 129.51 December | 3.47 | 3.60 | 3.78 | 130.51 January | 3.54 | 3.64 | 3.82 | 134.85 February | 3.35 | 3.46 | 3.70 | 130.58 March | 3.45 | 3.50 | 3.69 | 131.81 April | 3.41 | 3.49 | 3.68 | 131.62 May | 3.49 | 3.64 | 3.76 | 135.64 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- | Minneapolis | Minneapolis | Minneapolis | Minneapolis Month | DNS 13% prot. | DNS 14% prot. | DNS 15% prot. | #1 HAD milling | 00/01 01/02 | 00/01 01/02 | 00/01 01/02 | 00/01 01/02 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- June | 3.50 3.63 | 3.78 3.81 | 4.08 4.07 | 4.07 4.80 July | 3.24 3.51 | 3.50 3.72 | 3.91 4.01 | 3.85 4.75 August | 2.99 | 3.29 | 3.73 | 3.62 September | 3.10 | 3.17 | 3.37 | 4.70 October | 3.52 | 3.69 | 4.10 | 5.12 November | 3.64 | 3.77 | 4.03 | 5.51 December | 3.60 | 3.52 | 3.97 | N/Q January | 3.60 | 3.79 | 4.12 | N/Q February | 3.53 | 3.68 | 3.97 | 4.50 March | 3.45 | 3.63 | 3.98 | 4.98 April | 3.59 | 3.73 | 4.02 | 5.00 May | 3.69 | 3.88 | 4.12 | N/Q ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- | St. Louis | Chicago | Toledo | Portland Month | #2 soft red | #2 soft red | #2 soft red | #1 soft white | 00/01 01/02 | 00/01 01/02 | 00/01 01/02 | 00/01 01/02 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- June | 2.59 2.41 | 2.41 2.40 | 2.27 2.21 | 2.92 3.37 July | 2.17 2.67 | 2.14 2.56 | 2.06 2.52 | 2.78 3.45 August | 2.04 | 2.08 | 2.00 | 2.65 September | 2.06 | 2.13 | 1.98 | 2.78 October | 2.41 | 2.36 | 2.15 | 2.86 November | 2.42 | 2.42 | 2.15 | 2.94 December | 2.48 | 2.47 | 2.26 | 2.98 January | 2.52 | 2.57 | 2.43 | 3.01 February | 2.55 | 2.49 | 2.33 | 3.15 March | 2.53 | 2.56 | 2.36 | 3.26 April | 2.40 | 2.52 | 2.32 | 3.20 May | 2.45 | 2.51 | 2.30 | 3.37 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- N/Q=no quote. Source: Grain and Feed Weekly Summary and Statistics, AMS, USDA. Table 8--Wheat: U.S. exports and imports for last 6 months, 9/18/01 1/ ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Exports, (1,000 bu.) 2000/2001 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Item 1/ | January February March April May June --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Wheat grain | 60,743 85,797 71,502 83,157 68,908 59,190 Wheat flour | 2,236 2,365 2,200 3,868 2,163 1,412 Products | 297 283 291 267 269 1,036 Total | 63,275 88,445 73,992 87,292 71,341 61,638 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Imports, (1,000 bu.) 2000/2001 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Item 1/ | January February March April May June -------------|------------------------------------------------------------ Wheat grain | 4,526 4,979 5,945 5,171 5,653 5,540 Wheat flour | 833 688 769 729 742 738 Products | 1,204 1,049 1,355 1,280 1,274 1,309 Total | 6,563 6,717 8,070 7,180 7,669 7,588 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Census. 1/ Wheat flour and products converted to wheat grain equivalent. Totals may not add due to rounding. Table 9--Wheat: U.S. exports, Census and Export Sales comparison, 9/18/01- --------------------------------------------------------------------------- | 1999/2000 | 2000/01 | 2001/02 (as of 9/06/01) Importing |-----------------------------------|----------------------- country | | Ship- |Outstanding| Total | Shipments | ments | sales | --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Data | | Export | | Export | Export Source | Census | sales | Census | sales | Sales --------------------------------------------------------------------------- | 1,000 metric tons Country: | Egypt | 4,006 | 4,168 | 4,629 | 4,705 | 659 359 1,018 Japan | 3,172 | 3,122 | 3,064 | 3,124 | 528 546 1,074 Philippines | 2,126 | 2,175 | 1,977 | 2,024 | 488 320 808 Mexico | 1,832 | 1,963 | 2,000 | 2,027 | 467 268 735 EU | 1,330 | 1,300 | 1,300 | 1,429 | 794 184 977 S. Korea | 1,670 | 1,475 | 1,483 | 1,404 | 332 148 480 Nigeria | 1,127 | 1,185 | 1,317 | 1,428 | 573 272 846 Taiwan | 983 | 1,005 | 1,045 | 1,031 | 169 87 256 Israel | 894 | 917 | 694 | 870 | 139 9 148 Colombia | 779 | 726 | 607 | 626 | 135 112 247 Total grain | 28,047 | 25,453 | 27,694 | 25, 819| 6,200 3,291 9,491 Total(incl) | | | | | products) | 29,158 | 25,500 | 28,889 | 25, 856| 6,208 3,301 9,508 USDA forecast | | | | | of Census | | | | | 28,576 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/Export sales and shipments from USDA=s weekly U.S. Export Sales report. END_OF_FILE