WHEAT OUTLOOK October 16, 2001 October 2001, WHS-1001 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- WHEAT OUTLOOK is issued 11 times a year by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. Electronic release only; no published copies are available. WHEAT OUTLOOK is supplemented by an annual WHEAT YEARBOOK. The yearbook summary for 2001 was released on March 27, 2001. Yearbooks are available in print from USDA Order Desk. For the 2001 issue, call 1-800-999-6779 (703-605- 6220) and ask for stock #ERS-WHS-2001, $21. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Overview Projected U.S. 2001/02 ending stocks of wheat are up 20 million bushels from last month to 652 million. While production declined 33 million bushels from last month, reduced exports and a lower feed and residual more than offset this effect. Total wheat production is 1,958 million bushels. Exports are 25 million below last month because of the export performance to date. Feed and residual was reduced by 25 million with the release of the quarterly stocks report. The projected price range is reduced 10 cents on the high end to $3.00 to $2.70 per bushel because of lower than expected prices this marketing year and the smaller expected use. This price range is above the $2.62 per bushel price for the 2000 crop. World wheat production forecast for 2001/02 was largely unchanged this month as larger than expected crops in Russia and Ukraine more than offset reduced prospects in Argentina, Canada, and the European Union (EU). The production revisions were partly reflected in changes to forecast exports, with increased exports by Russia and Ukraine and reduced exports by the United States, Argentina, Canada, and the EU. Pakistans forecast exports increased because of improved prospects for sales as well as shipments to Afghanistan. Forecast imports for Iran and Nigeria were reduced because the previous years import pace was not as strong as expected. Reduced global imports and the slow pace of early season shipments reduced the U.S. export forecast from 29.0 million tons to 28.5 million. Winter wheat production is down The 2001 winter wheat production is estimated at 1.36 billion bushels, the lowest level since 1978. This is down 24 million bushels from the August forecast and 205 million bushels below the 2000 level. The U.S. yield decreased 0.3 bushel from August to 43.5 bushels per acre. This is 1.2 bushels below last years final yield. Acreage for grain is estimated at 31.3 million acres, down .4 million acres from the last forecast. This is the smallest harvested area since 1933. Hard red winter (HRW). Yields were generally down from the last forecast. HRW production totals 767 million bushels, down 29 million bushels from last month and 80 million bushels from last year. Total supplies of HRW for the 2001/02 marketing year are 1.18 billion bushels, down 26 million bushels from last month and 125 million from 2000/01. Exports of HRW were reduced by 45 million bushels from last month to 400 million bushels because of low exports to date. Feed and residual use of HRW was also reduced this month from 85 million to 65 million. The net result of these changes in production and use is to raise HRW ending stocks by 39 million bushels to 300 million. This marketing years HRW ending stocks are 111 million below the 2000/01 level of 411 million bushels. Soft red winter (SRW). Record-high yields were recorded in Illinois, Kentucky, Missouri, and Wisconsin. Overall, SRW production is up 14 million bushels from last month, but down 72 million bushels from 2000. Total production of SRW for the 2001/02 marketing year is 400 million bushels, resulting in 604 million bushels for total supplies. Exports of SRW were raised by 15 million bushels this month to 185 million bushels. The net result of these changes in production and exports is to reduce SRW ending stocks by 1 million bushels to 88 million. This marketing years HRW ending stocks are 47 million below the 2000/01 level of 135 million bushels. White winter. White winter wheat production, at 195 million bushels, is down 9 million bushels from last month and down 58 million bushels from last year. The sharp drop from last year is due to dramatically lower yields in the Pacific Northwest (Idaho, Oregon, and Washington). Other spring wheat production is down The 2001 other spring wheat production is estimated at 513 million bushels, down 7 million bushels from the last forecast and 44 million bushels below 2000. Harvested area is 14.6 million acres, up .1 million acre from last year. The U.S. yield is 35.2 bushels per acre, down 0.1 bushel from the last forecast but 3.2 bushels below last season. Harvest was nearly complete by mid-September. All States recorded lower yields than last year, except Colorado and South Dakota. The South Dakota yield is a record high. The yield in North Dakota was slightly lower than the last forecast while Washingtons yield improved slightly. All other States were unchanged from the September 1 forecast. Objective Yield survey data showed plant populations at above average levels in Minnesota and North Dakota, but below average in Montana. Weight per head remained above average in Minnesota and North Dakota. Hard red spring (HRS). HRS production totals 476 million bushels, down 27 million bushels from last year. With lowered imports, total supplies of HRS for the 2001/02 marketing year are 735 million bushels, down 9 million bushels from last month and 44 million from 2000/01. The net result of these changes in production and imports use is to lower HRS ending stocks by 9 million bushels to 175 million. This marketing years HRS ending stocks are 35 million below the 2000/01 level of 210 million bushels. Preliminary quality data for hard red spring wheat are provided in the Weekly Harvest Report by the U.S. Wheat Associates (www.uswheat.org). The October 9 report has an average test weight of 59.9 pounds per bushel for 330 samples (out of an expected 340 samples to be tested), less than last years 60.4, but above 1999s 59.3. Protein content averaged 14.5 percent, the same as last year and above 1999s 14.1. Falling number is averaging 391 seconds, up from last years 379 and 1999s 313. Durum wheat. Durum production for 2001 totaled 83.6 million bushels, down 3 million bushels from September and 26 million less than last year. Grain area totals 2.79 million acres, down .2 million acres from the last forecast and .8 million acres below a year ago. The U.S. yield is estimated at 30.0 bushels per acre, up 0.9 bushel from the last forecast but 0.7 bushel per acre below 2000. Total supplies of durum for the 2001/02 marketing year are 159 million bushels, up 2 million bushels from last month because higher imports more than offset the production decrease. Durum exports were raised 5 million bushels from last month to 45 million bushels. The net result of these changes in supply and use this month is to lower ending stocks by 3 million bushels to 22 million. Durum ending stocks for the 2001/02 marketing year are 23 million bushels below a year ago. Preliminary quality data for durum wheat are also available from the Weekly Harvest Report. The October 9 report for 120 samples (out of an expected 130 samples to be tested) has an average of 58.7 pounds per bushel, less than last years 58.8 and 1999s 59.8 for the Great Plains. Protein content is averaging 14.4 percent, less than last years 16.2 and 1999s 15.6. Falling number is averaging 421 seconds, above last years 216 and 1999s 250. White spring. White spring wheat production, at 37 million bushels, is down 3 million bushels from last month and down 17 million from last year. Total white wheat supplies for the 2001/02 marketing year are 317 million bushels, down 11 million bushels from last month and 80 million bushels from a year ago. Feed and residual use of white wheat was reduced from last month. The net result of the reduced production and feed and residual use is to drop ending stocks for the 2001/02 marketing year to 66 million bushels, 6 million less than last month and 9 million less than a year ago. Winter wheat planting ahead of last years pace Seventy percent of the winter wheat crop has been seeded, and 40 percent has emerged as of October 7. Planting and emergence on this date a year ago were 47 percent and 19 percent respectively. The 5-year averages for seeding and emergence are 56 and 30 percent, respectively. Seeding this year was aided by dry weather across most of the Great Plains and Pacific Northwest, while rain only briefly suspended planting in the eastern Corn Belt. Planting remained far ahead of normal in Kansas and Oklahoma, as 26 and 22 percent, respectively, was sown during the week ending October 7. Progress was also well ahead of normal in Montana and Texas. Ohio growers seeded nearly 40 percent of their acreage during the week. Planting lagged behind normal in Michigan and Idaho. Germination and growth were supported by mostly adequate topsoil moisture supplies in Kansas and South Dakota. Meanwhile, the crop rapidly emerged in Oklahoma and Nebraska, despite large areas of topsoil moisture shortages. Germination was slow and emergence was uneven in Montana due to severe topsoil moisture shortages. In parts of the Pacific Northwest, planting and emergence were delayed due to dry soils. Price support activity The 1996 Farm Act contained key policy tools to assist farmers when market prices are low. The key provisions are the non-recourse "marketing assistance loans" (MAL) and "loan deficiency payments" (LDP). Producers that entered into Production Flexibility Contracts (PFC) with the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) are eligible to participate in these programs. The non-recourse marketing assistance loans provide interim financing to eligible producers of wheat and other commodities covered by the program. Producers pledge their wheat as collateral and obtain a loan equivalent to the loan rate established in their county by the Farm Service Agency of USDA. The loan proceeds can cover short-term cash needs. As of October 10, 2001, wheat producers had loans outstanding on 116 million bushels of 2001-crop wheat. A year ago, as of October 13, 2000, wheat producers had loans outstanding on 106 million bushels of 2000-crop wheat. The loans may be forfeited to the Commodity Credit Corporation at maturity or repaid at the loan repayment rate at or before maturity. The loan repayment rate may actually be less than the loan rate (plus interest) if the local price--called the posted county price (PCP)--falls below the local loan rate. The PCP--calculated each day the Federal Government is open--is based on terminal market prices and a fixed differential to each county, largely reflecting transportation and other marketing factors. When a farmer repays the loan at a lower PCP, the difference between the loan rate and the PCP is called a "marketing loan gain." If the PCP is under the county loan rate on the day the producer repays the loan, accrued interest on the loan is waived. As of October 10, 2001, 12.6 million bushels had been repaid, and the market gain value totaled $3.2 million or 31 cents per bushel. A year ago, as of October 13, 33.2 million bushels had been repaid, and the market gain value totaled $32.8 million or 54 cents per bushel. If the PCP is below the county loan rate, eligible producers may opt for an LDP in lieu of securing a loan. The LDP rate is the amount by which the county loan rate exceeds the PCP on the date the application is made. The wheat cannot be placed under loan once an LDP is paid. If producers take the LDPs and immediately sell their crop and if the PCP accurately reflects local prices, they effectively receive per-unit revenue equal to the loan rate, partly from the market and partly from the Government. After an LDP is accepted, the farmer can sell the crop and avoid storage expense or hold it in the expectation of a price rally later in the marketing season. As of October 10, 2001, eligible producers collected $145 million in LDPs covering 579 million bushels of 2001-crop wheat or about 30 percent of the 2001 crop. The average payment rate to date is 25 cents per bushel. A year ago, as of October 13, 2000, eligible producers collected $658 million in LDPs covering 1,509 million bushels of 2000-crop wheat or about 67 percent of the 2000 crop. The average payment rate to that date was 43 cents per bushel. USDA Karnal bunt workshop The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) is to hold a Karnal Bunt Workshop on October 31 and November 1, 2001, in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma. The purpose of the 2-day workshop is to review and discuss the activities and findings of the Karnal bunt program, with particular emphasis on the 2001 results, evaluate current policies and procedures, as well as discuss possible changes to ensure the programs effectiveness in preventing negative impacts of Karnal bunt on the small grain industry. Individuals interested in attending the 2-day workshop may respond via the PPQ KB Working Group e-mail box at ppq_kb_working_group@aphis.usda.gov, or by fax to the KB Working Group at 301-734-8434. U.S.wheat exports off to a slow start In 2001/02 Reduced global imports and the slow pace of early season shipments lowered the U.S. export forecast from 29.0 million tons to 28.5 million. According to U.S. Export Sales, as of October 4, 2001, wheat export shipments since June (4 months) reached 8.1 million tons, down 1.7 million tons from the previous year. Outstanding sales were partly offsetting, up nearly 0.8 million tons. This months U.S. June/May export forecast is 1 million ton less than last years result. This means that future sales for shipment in 2001/02 must run about the same as last years pace if the reduced forecast is to be reached. Lower production contributed to reduced export forecasts for Argentina, Canada, and the EU, each down 0.5 million ton this month. However, export forecasts increased by a like amount for Russia, Ukraine, and Pakistan. World wheat trade forecast in 2001/02 was reduced 0.5 million tons this month, because the recent pace of imports has been less than expected. Several changes to 2000/01 wheat import estimates were made for countries based on recently available trade data. The most important was a drop of 0.5 million ton for Iran that was carried forward into the forecast year. For Nigeria the import pace has been strong, but not enough to sustain last months forecast, leading to a 0.3-million-ton decline. Although 2001/02 wheat trade prospects were reduced this month, they are still up almost 4 million tons from a year earlier. The largest year-over- year increase is expected for South Korea, up over 1 million tons because of ample supplies of feed wheat from Black Sea origins. China is also expected to increase imports from the record-low 0.3 million estimated for 2000/01. The size of Chinas imports is a crucial, difficult-to-forecast variable because the import decisionmaking process is evolving. World wheat use forecast for 2001/02 was reduced 1 million ton this month. However, forecast world wheat use is still expected to increase in 2001/02, projected up over 5 million tons from the previous year, a growth rate of less than 1 percent. Global production in 2001/02 is projected to reach 571 million tons, nearly unchanged this month. Russias production forecast increased 2 million tons to 43.5 million, based on harvest reports. Moreover, quality is reportedly better than normal, with about two-thirds of the crop reaching milling standards. Ukraine production forecast increased 1 million to 21 million, but excessive rains during harvest reduced a large portion of the crop to feed-quality wheat. These increases were partly offset by reduced prospects in several major exporting countries. Canada reported that drought had reduced production more than earlier anticipated, reducing the forecast 0.8 million ton. Forecast EU wheat production dropped 0.7 million tons this month because harvest reports indicated lower than previously expected crops in France, the United Kingdom, Greece, and Ireland; more than offsetting increased production in Denmark and the Netherlands. Projected production in Argentina was reduced 0.5 million ton because excessive rains during planting kept some of the intended acres from being seeded. World wheat stocks are a forecast 136 million tons, up almost 2 million from last month. While Canada and the EU stock forecasts were reduced slightly this month, the wheat stocks increase in the former Soviet Union was over 2 million tons. The year-over-year increase forecast for wheat in the former Soviet Union is for a near tripling of stocks. However, China and other importing countries are expected to reduce wheat stocks even more dramatically than the buildup in the former Soviet Union, leading to a nearly 23-million-ton drop in forecast world wheat stocks. This is about the same as the drop in world wheat stocks that occurred in 1993/94. The next electronic Wheat Outlook report will be issued on November 14, 2001. ============================================================================= Information Contacts: Gary Vocke (Situation Coordinator) (202) 694-5285 Edward W. Allen (International Analyst) (202) 694-5288 Electronic copies are available at: World Wide Website www.ers.usda.gov ============================================================================= For several months, a wide range of ideas have emerged in the farm bill debate on how best to address the needs of farmers and other constituencies. A recently released ERS report, Wheat: Background and Issues for Farm Legislation, provides information on topics important to the debate, including market conditions, policy proposals, WTO considerations, and the interactions between policy and markets. This online-only report, http://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/WHS-0701-01/, is the first of the occasional Wheat Outlook supplements that will provide timely analysis on specific topics. Readers will no longer have to wait for the Wheat Situation and Outlook Yearbook for all of the in-depth reports and special articles on the wheat sector. ============================================================================ Table 1--Wheat: U.S. market year supply and disappearance, 10/16/01 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Item 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01E 2001/02P ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Area: (mil. ac.) National toal base 87.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Eff.base/Ctr. acres 0,50/92,85 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 CRP base retired 10.6 10.1 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 Planted 75.1 70.4 65.8 62.7 62.6 59.6 Harvested 62.8 62.8 59.0 53.8 53.1 48.7 Yield: (bu/acre) 36.3 39.5 43.2 42.7 42.0 40.2 Supply: (mil. bu.) Beginning stocks 376.0 443.6 722.5 945.9 949.7 876.2 Production 2,277.4 2,481.5 2,547.3 2,299.0 2,232.5 1,957.6 Imports 1/ 92.3 94.9 103.0 94.5 89.8 90.0 Total supply 2,745.7 3,020.0 3,372.8 3,339.4 3,272.0 2,923.8 Use: Food 890.7 914.1 909.7 928.9 957.1 960.0 Seed 102.3 92.5 80.5 91.8 79.8 87.0 Feed and residual 307.6 250.5 394.4 279.4 297.5 200.0 Total domestic 1,300.6 1,257.1 1,384.7 1,300.1 1,334.4 1,247.0 Exports 1/ 1,001.5 1,040.4 1,042.2 1,089.5 1,061.5 1,025.0 Total use 2,302.1 2,297.5 2,426.9 2,389.7 2,395.9 2,272.0 Ending stocks: 443.6 722.5 945.9 949.7 876.2 651.8 Farmer-owned reserve 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 CCC inventory 2/ 93.0 94.0 128.0 104.0 97.0 94.0 Free stocks 350.6 628.5 817.9 845.7 779.2 557.8 Stocks-to-use ratio 19.3 31.4 39.0 39.7 36.6 28.7 Prices: ($/bu.) Target price 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Loan rate 2.58 2.58 2.58 2.58 2.58 2.58 Contract rate 3/ 0.87 0.63 0.66 0.64 0.59 0.48 Ave. farm price 4.30 3.38 2.65 2.48 2.62 2.70- 3.00 Contract pmts. (mil. dollars) 3/ 1,941 1,412 2,718 3,829 3,615 2,502 Market value of production (mil. dollars) 9,782 8,287 6,781 5,702 5,849 5,579 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Source: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, WAOB, USDA. Totals may not add due to rounding. E=Estimated, P=Projected, N.A.=not applicable. 1/ Imports and exports include flour and other products expressed in wheat equivalent. 2/ Includes Food Security Reserve. 3/ Deficiency payments prior to 1996/97. Table 2--Wheat: U.S. market year supply and disappearance, 10/16/01 1/ ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2000/01E HRW HRS SRW White Durum All wheat ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Area: Million acres Planted 30.41 14.38 9.52 4.39 3.94 62.63 Harvested 23.59 13.59 8.15 4.23 3.57 53.13 Yield: (bu/acre) 35.87 36.96 57.84 71.60 30.74 42.02 Supply: Million bushels Beg. stocks 457.9 218.0 133.0 91.0 49.8 949.7 Production 846.3 502.3 471.4 302.7 109.8 2,232.5 Imports 2/ 0.0 58.7 0.0 5.2 25.8 89.8 Total 1,304.3 779.1 604.4 398.9 185.4 3,272.0 Utilization: Total domestic 490.8 339.1 293.4 120.9 90.3 1,334.4 Exports 2/ 402.5 230.0 176.0 203.0 50.0 1,061.5 Total 893.3 569.1 469.4 323.9 140.3 2,395.9 Ending stocks: 411.0 210.0 135.0 75.0 45.2 876.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2001/02P HRW HRS SRW White Durum All wheat ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Area: Million acres Planted 28.96 14.77 8.65 4.33 2.91 59.62 Harvested 20.87 13.75 7.17 4.08 2.79 48.65 Yield: (bu/acre) 36.74 34.59 55.75 56.91 29.96 40.24 Supply: Million bushels Beg. stocks 411.0 210.0 135.0 75.0 45.2 876.2 Production 766.8 475.7 399.7 232.0 83.6 1,957.6 Imports 2/ 1.0 49.0 0.0 10.0 30.0 90.0 Total 1,178.8 734.7 534.7 317.0 158.7 2,923.8 Utilization: Total domestic 478.5 324.5 261.5 91.0 91.5 1,247.0 Exports 2/ 400.0 235.0 185.0 160.0 45.0 1,025.0 Total 878.5 559.5 446.5 251.0 136.5 2,272.0 Ending stocks: 300.3 175.2 88.2 66.0 22.2 651.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Totals may not add due to rounding. E=Estimated, P=Projected. 1/ ERS estimates of area, yield, and domestic use. 2/ Imports and exports include flour and other products expressed in wheat equivalent. Source: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, WAOB, USDA Table 3--Wheat: Quarterly supply and disappearance (1,000 bu.), 10/16/01 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Market Produc- Imports Supply Food Seed Feed Exports Ending Year tion 2/ 2/ stocks ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Million bushels 1998/99 Jun-Aug 2,547 24 3,294 226 1 425 257 2,385 Sep-Nov --- 24 2,409 241 55 (74) 292 1,896 Dec-Feb --- 28 1,923 213 1 12 247 1,450 Mar-May --- 27 1,477 230 23 32 246 946 Mkt. year 2,547 103 3,373 910 81 394 1,042 946 1999/00 Jun-Aug 2,299 31 3,276 230 6 270 324 2,445 Sep-Nov --- 19 2,465 241 55 (8) 291 1,886 Dec-Feb --- 19 1,905 223 2 28 236 1,417 Mar-May --- 25 1,442 235 28 (10) 239 950 Mkt. year 2,299 95 3,339 929 92 279 1,090 950 2000/01 E: Jun-Aug 2,232 20 3,203 239 1 324 286 2,353 Sep-Nov --- 25 2,378 253 50 (23) 293 1,805 Dec-Feb --- 21 1,827 231 3 4 250 1,338 Mar-May --- 23 1,361 235 25 (7) 233 876 Mkt. year 2,232 90 3,272 957 80 297 1,061 876 2001/02 P: Jun-Aug 1,958 23 2,857 238 3 240 220 2,155 Sep-Nov --- 23 2,178 253 53 (35) 265 1,643 Dec-Feb --- 22 1,665 231 3 5 275 1,152 Mar-May --- 22 1,174 239 29 (10) 265 652 Mkt. year 1,958 90 2,924 960 87 200 1,025 652 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Totals might not add due to rounding. E=Estimated, P=Projected. 1/ Imports and exports include flour and selected products expressed in wheat equivalent. Table 4--Monthly food use estimates for last 12 months, (1,000 bu.), 10/16/01 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Item | July August September October November December ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Mill grind + | 77,830 85,062 81,793 86,755 83,038 77,944 Food imports 1/ + | 1,846 2,051 1,755 1,967 2,130 2,039 Non-flour | food use 2/ + | 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 Food exports 1/ - | 4,067 1,902 3,465 4,442 2,588 3,021 Food use = | 77,608 87,211 82,083 86,280 84,580 78,962 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Item | January February March April May June ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Mill grind + | 74,926 74,331 78,862 75,348 77,041 73,709 Food imports 1/ + | 2,036 1,734 2,122 2,003 2,013 2,042 Non-flour | food use 2/ + | 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 Food exports 1/ - | 2,532 2,454 2,488 4,133 2,367 1,679 Food use = | 76,430 75,611 80,495 75,218 78,687 76,072 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Wheat flour and flour products converted to wheat grain equivalent. 2/ ERS estimate of cereal use. Totals may not add due to rounding. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Census. Table 5--Wheat: National average price received by farmers ($/bu.), 10/16/01 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- | ------------------------ Farm prices ------------------------ Month | All wheat | Winter | Durum | Other spring | 00/01 01/02 | 00/01 01/02 | 00/01 01/02 | 00/01 01/02 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- June 1/ | 2.50 2.74 | 2.43 2.68 | 2.71 3.37 | 2.90 3.03 July | 2.32 2.70 | 2.23 2.67 | 2.90 2.74 | 2.74 2.78 August | 2.41 2.73 | 2.31 2.71 | 2.33 2.38 | 2.59 2.84 September | 2.44 2.80 | 2 37 2.77 | 2.32 2.71 | 2.59 2.89 October | 2.68 | 2.63 | 2.42 | 2.80 November | 2.83 | 2.70 | 2.97 | 2.97 December | 2.87 | 2.76 | 3.03 | 2.98 January | 2.85 | 2.77 | 2.94 | 2.96 February | 2.83 | 2.74 | 2.60 | 2.99 March | 2.87 | 2.85 | 2.40 | 2.99 April | 2.86 | 2.77 | 2.52 | 3.05 May | 2.98 | 2.94 | 2.53 | 3.13 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Preliminary mid-month weighted average price for current month of the 2000/01 marketing year. Source: Agricultural Prices, National Agricultural Statistics Service, USDA. Table 6Wheat by class: Regional average price received by farmers, 10/16/01 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- -------------------- Regional farm prices -------------------- | Hard Winter | Soft Winter | Hard Spring | Soft White Month | So. Plains 1/ | Corn Belt 2/ | No. Plains 3/ | Northwest 4/ | 00/01 01/02 | 00/01 01/02 | 00/01 01/02 | 00/01 01/02 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Dollars per bushel June 5/ | 2.52 2.85 | 2.24 2.32 | 2.90 3.03 | 2.50 3.09 July | 2.40 2.65 | 1.99 2.36 | 2.74 2.78 | 2.57 3.17 August | 2.35 2.66 | 1.95 2.50 | 2.59 2.84 | 2.38 3.14 September | 2.54 2.61 | 2.03 2.40 | 2.59 2.89 | 2.43 3.22 October | 2.74 | 2.09 | 2.80 | 2.58 November | 2.80 | 2.21 | 2.97 | 2.70 December | 2.82 | 2.31 | 2.98 | 2.74 January | 2.87 | 2.41 | 2.96 | 2.72 February | 2.79 | 2.48 | 2.99 | 2.79 March | 2.86 | 2.37 | 2.99 | 2.97 April | 2.78 | 2.20 | 3.05 | 3.08 May | 2.98 | 2.37 | 3.13 | 3.13 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Average price of winter wheat in Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma, and Texas. 2/ Average price of winter wheat in Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, and Missouri. 3/ Monthly weighted U.S. average price for Aother spring@ wheat. 4/ Average price of all wheat in Washington, Oregon, and Idaho. 5/ Current month of current year based on preliminary mid-month prices. Note: Regional prices are ERS estimates. Source: State prices are from Agricultural Prices, NASS, USDA. Table 7--Wheat: Average cash grain bids at selected markets ($/bu.), 10/16/01 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- | KC HRW #1 | KC HRW #1 | Portland | FOB Gulf Month | ordinary | 13% protein | #1 HRW Ord. | $/mt (#2 HRW) | 00/01 01/02 | 00/01 01/02 | 00/01 01/02 | 00/01 01/02 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- June | 3.07 3.32 | 3.59 3.47 | 3.19 3.59 | 115.66 128.52 July | 2.97 3.20 | 3.25 3.35 | 3.05 3.40 | 114.60 124.80 August | 2.89 3.15 | 3.13 3.27 | 2.98 3.61 | 112.10 124.95 September | 3.13 3.18 | 3.32 3.27 | 3.26 3.65 | 121.49 October | 3.41 | 3.59 | 3.66 | 130.88 November | 3.45 | 3.60 | 3.79 | 129.51 December | 3.47 | 3.60 | 3.78 | 130.51 January | 3.54 | 3.64 | 3.82 | 134.85 February | 3.35 | 3.46 | 3.70 | 130.58 March | 3.45 | 3.50 | 3.69 | 131.81 April | 3.41 | 3.49 | 3.68 | 131.62 May | 3.49 | 3.64 | 3.76 | 135.64 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- | Minneapolis | Minneapolis | Minneapolis | Minneapolis Month | DNS 13% prot. | DNS 14% prot. | DNS 15% prot. | #1 HAD milling | 00/01 01/02 | 00/01 01/02 | 00/01 01/02 | 00/01 01/02 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- June | 3.50 3.63 | 3.78 3.81 | 4.08 4.07 | 4.07 4.80 July | 3.24 3.51 | 3.50 3.72 | 3.91 4.01 | 3.85 4.75 August | 2.99 3.37 | 3.29 3.54 | 3.73 3.92 | 3.62 5.02 September | 3.10 3.47 | 3.17 3.52 | 3.37 3.61 | 4.70 5.03 October | 3.52 | 3.69 | 4.10 | 5.12 November | 3.64 | 3.77 | 4.03 | 5.51 December | 3.60 | 3.52 | 3.97 | N/Q January | 3.60 | 3.79 | 4.12 | N/Q February | 3.53 | 3.68 | 3.97 | 4.50 March | 3.45 | 3.63 | 3.98 | 4.98 April | 3.59 | 3.73 | 4.02 | 5.00 May | 3.69 | 3.88 | 4.12 | N/Q ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- | St. Louis | Chicago | Toledo | Portland Month | #2 soft red | #2 soft red | #2 soft red | #1 soft white | 00/01 01/02 | 00/01 01/02 | 00/01 01/02 | 00/01 01/02 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- June | 2.59 2.41 | 2.41 2.40 | 2.27 2.21 | 2.92 3.37 July | 2.17 2.67 | 2.14 2.56 | 2.06 2.52 | 2.78 3.45 August | 2.04 2.66 | 2.08 2.57 | 2.00 2.58 | 2.65 3.52 September | 2.06 2.73 | 2.13 2.57 | 1.98 2.57 | 2.78 3.62 October | 2.41 | 2.36 | 2.15 | 2.86 November | 2.42 | 2.42 | 2.15 | 2.94 December | 2.48 | 2.47 | 2.26 | 2.98 January | 2.52 | 2.57 | 2.43 | 3.01 February | 2.55 | 2.49 | 2.33 | 3.15 March | 2.53 | 2.56 | 2.36 | 3.26 April | 2.40 | 2.52 | 2.32 | 3.20 May | 2.45 | 2.51 | 2.30 | 3.37 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- N/Q=no quote. Source: Grain and Feed Weekly Summary and Statistics, AMS, USDA. Table 8--Wheat: U.S. exports and imports for last 6 months, 10/16/01 1/ ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Exports, (1,000 bu.) 2000/2001 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Item 1/ | February March April May June July ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Wheat grain | 85,797 71,502 83,157 68,908 59,190 64,911 Wheat flour | 2,236 2,200 3,868 2,163 1,412 661 Products | 283 291 267 269 1,036 245 Total | 88,445 73,992 87,292 71,341 61,638 65,817 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Imports, (1,000 bu.) 2000/2001 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Item 1/ | February March April May June July -------------|--------------------------------------------------------------- Wheat grain | 4,979 5,945 5,171 5,653 5,540 7,633 Wheat flour | 688 769 729 742 738 734 Products | 1,049 1,355 1,280 1,274 1,309 1,332 Total | 6,717 8,070 7,180 7,669 7,588 9,698 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Census. 1/ Wheat flour and products converted to wheat grain equivalent. Totals may not add due to rounding. Table 9--Wheat: U.S. exports, Census and Export Sales comparison, 10/16/01- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- | 1999/2000 | 2000/01 | 2001/02 (as of 10/4/01) Importing |----------------------------------- |----------------------- country | | Ship- |Outstanding| Total | Shipments | ments | sales | ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Data | | Export | | Export | Export Source | Census | sales | Census | sales | Sales ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- | 1,000 metric tons Country: | Egypt | 4,006 | 4,168 | 4,629 | 4,705 | 981 664 1,645 Japan | 3,172 | 3,122 | 3,064 | 3,124 | 727 518 1,245 Philippines | 2,126 | 2,175 | 1,977 | 2,024 | 559 354 913 Mexico | 1,832 | 1,963 | 2,000 | 2,027 | 694 252 945 EU | 1,330 | 1,300 | 1,300 | 1,429 | 1,056 158 1,214 S. Korea | 1,670 | 1,475 | 1,483 | 1,404 | 395 157 552 Nigeria | 1,127 | 1,185 | 1,317 | 1,428 | 726 284 1,010 Taiwan | 983 | 1,005 | 1,045 | 1,031 | 227 180 407 Israel | 894 | 917 | 694 | 870 | 143 9 152 Colombia | 779 | 726 | 607 | 626 | 176 145 321 Total grain | 28,047 | 25,453 | 27,694 | 25, 819| 8.127 3,989 12,116 Total(incl) | | | | | products) | 29,158 | 25,500 | 28,889 | 25, 856| 8,136 3,999 12,134 USDA forecast | | | | | of Census | | | | | 27,896 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/Export sales and shipments from USDA=s weekly U.S. Export Sales report. END_OF_FILE