WHEAT OUTLOOK January 15, 2002 January 2002, WHS-0102 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WHEAT OUTLOOK is issued 11 times a year by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. Electronic release only; no published copies are available. WHEAT OUTLOOK is supplemented by an annual WHEAT YEARBOOK. The yearbook summary for 2001 will be released on March XX, 2002. Yearbooks are available in print from ERS-NASS Order Desk. For the 2002 issue, call 1-800-999-6779 (703-605-6220) and ask for stock #ERS-WHS-2002, $21. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Overview The seedings estimates for the 2002/03 marketing year indicate that the U.S. winter wheat planted area has dropped for the sixth year in a row. Projected U.S. 2001/02 ending stocks of wheat are down 16 million bushels from last month as increased domestic use more than offsets higher expected imports. Feed and residual use is up 25 million bushels from last month, while seed use is reduced 4 million bushels. Projected prices are reduced 10 cents on the high end to $2.75 to $2.85 per bushel. Global 2001/02 production is up slightly from last month as increases for Russia, Ukraine, and Mexico more than offset reductions for Argentina and Egypt. Global imports are up slightly due to small increases for a number of countries. Projected exports are increased for Russia, Turkey, and China but reduced for Kazakstan. The lower expected production in Argentina is offset by reduced domestic use and stocks, leaving projected Argentine exports unchanged from last month. Projected global 2001/02 ending stocks of wheat are up sharply from last month, largely because of higher expected stocks in India. Recent Government of India data indicate stocks are well above a year earlier and larger than previously expected. Winter wheat planted area lowest since 1971 The January 11 Winter Wheat Seedings report by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) provides the first indication of wheat plantings for 2002/03. Winter wheat seeded area for 2002 is estimated at 41.0 million acres, down slightly from 2001. This is the smallest area since 1971, and 47,000 acres below a year ago. Estimated acreages by class are: hard red winter (HRW), 29.3 million; soft red winter (SRW), 8.3 million; and white winter, 3.4 million. Desert durum seedings in Arizona and California are estimated at 179,000 acres, up 3 percent from the 2001 acreage. Winter wheat planting began last August and advanced well ahead of the previous years slow pace with nearly all of the seeded completed by December 1. Most of the remaining intended unplanted area is in the Southeast and California. HRW wheat seeded area is up 1 percent from 2001. Significant acreage increases in Texas, Oklahoma, and Montana more than offset a large decline in Kansas, the largest wheat producing State. Texas and Oklahoma are rebounding from lower acreages last year when dry conditions reduced seedings. This is the first time since 1990 that wheat acreage has increased in Oklahoma. Winter wheat acreage continues to decline in Kansas, where seedings have not increased since 1996, and are at the lowest level since 1957. SRW area is down 4 percent from last year, and is 13 percent below 2 years ago. Acreage declined significantly across the Corn Belt, in Arkansas, and throughout much of the Southeast. WW wheat seeded area is down 1 percent from 2001. Growers in Idaho planted the smallest acreage since 1962. December stocks down 10 percent The January 11 Grain Stocks report by NASS placed all wheat stored in all positions on December 1, 2001 at 1.62 billion bushels, down 10 percent from a year ago. On-farm stocks are estimated at 518 million bushels, down 17 percent from last year. Off-farm stocks, at 1.11 billion bushels, are down 7 percent from a year ago. The indicated September November 2001 disappearance is 559 million bushels, down 2 percent from the same quarter a year earlier. Total durum wheat stocks on December 1 totaled 75.70 million bushels, down 27 percent from a year ago. On-farm durum stocks are an estimated 49.60 million bushels, down 31 percent from last year. Off-farm stocks, an estimated 26.10 million bushels, are down 19 percent from a year ago. U.S. 2001/02 ending stocks are down from last month and last year Projected U.S. 2001/02 ending stocks of wheat are down 16 million bushels from last month as increased domestic use more than offsets higher expected imports of 5 million bushels. Imports of hard red spring (HRS) wheat were raised 3 million bushels and durum wheat 2 million bushels above last months projection. Total projected domestic use is raised 21 million bushels from last month. Feed and residual use is up 25 million bushels from last month: HRW by 10 million bushels and HRS by 15 million bushels. Seed use, however, is reduced 4 million bushels. Food use for 2001/02 is unchanged from last month. Total domestic use, at 1.26 billion bushels, is 76 million below last year. Most of the shortfall from a year ago is because of the lower feed and residual use for this year. Total projected exports of 1.00 billion bushels are unchanged from last month. However, exports by class were changed because of differing export paces to date. Exports of soft red winter (SRW) are raised by 15 million bushels. The projeced exports of HRS and HRW wheat are dropped by 10 and 5 million bushels, respectively. The net result of these changes in supply and use is to lower projected ending stocks by 16 million bushels from last month. Ending stocks of SRW and HRW wheat are down 14.3 million bushels and 4.6 million bushels, respectively. HRS wheat ending stocks are down marginally, while white wheat ending stocks are unchanged. Durum ending stocks are up 3 million bushels from last months projection. All wheat ending stocks for 2001/02 are 205 million bushels below last years ending stocks. The largest changes, percentage wise, are the reductions for the SRW and durum wheat classes (53 and 49 percent, respectively). HRW wheat ending stocks are down 22 percent from 2000/01, while HRS and white wheat are down just 6 and 5 percent, respectively, from a year ago. The ending stock reductions by class are: HRW, 90 million bushels; HRS, 18 million bushels; SRW, 71 million bushels; white wheat, 4 million bushels; and durum, 22 million bushels. The projected stocks-to-use ratio for the 2001/02 year is 29.7 percent, the lowest since 1996/97s 19.3 percent. From 1996/97, this ratio rose to a peak of 39.7 percent for the 1999/2000 marketing year. Based on prices to date, the projected price range for the 2001/02 marketing year is reduced 10 cents on the high end from last month to $2.75 to $2.85 per bushel. This price range is above last years $2.62 per bushel and the 1999/2000s $2.48. Changes for India Boost World Wheat Ending Stocks This Month Recent Government of India wheat stocks were up from a year ago and substantially larger than expected. While it is possible that there has been some shifting from private, unreported stocks to government stock holding, the higher reported stocks imply sharply lower disappearance. Forecast 2001/02 consumption was reduced 8 million tons to 60 million, and ending stocks increased by the same amount. Total foreign stocks are forecast up 10 million tons this month because of increases (in addition to India) in Russia, Kazakstan, and North Africa which more than offset declines in European Union (EU) and Argentina. Although forecast 2001/02 global ending stocks were revised up this month, world wheat stocks are still down over 10 million tons from a year earlier, led by a dramatic 19-million-ton drop in China. U.S. and EU wheat stocks are also expected to decline significantly, but projected 2001/02 wheat stocks in the former Soviet Union are up 17.5 million tons and India is up 5.5 million from a year earlier, offsetting much of the decline elsewhere. This months changes tended to accentuate these increases and declines. Forecast stocks for the former Soviet Union increased almost 2 million tons this month because of increased production reported in Russia. With transportation and port capacity a limiting factor, Russias wheat exports increased only 0.5 million tons this month. However, forecast stocks for the United States, EU and China declined this month. EU imports (from outside the EU) in 2000/01 were down nearly 1 million tons based on end-of-year trade data, reducing estimated stocks. Chinas projected wheat stocks also declined marginally because of increased exports of feed wheat. Argentinas forecast stocks were reduced slightly this month as harvest reports indicate a smaller crop. However, the incentives to export are strong, so forecast exports were unchanged while projected domestic use was reduced. The next electronic Wheat Outlook report will be issued on February 12, 2002. ============================================================================== Information Contacts: Gary Vocke (Situation Coordinator) (202) 694-5285 Edward W. Allen (International Analyst) (202) 694-5288 Electronic copies are available at: World Wide Website www.ers.usda.gov ============================================================================== For several months, a wide range of ideas have emerged in the farm bill debate on how best to address the needs of farmers and other constituencies. A recently released ERS report, Wheat: Background and Issues for Farm Legislation, provides information on topics important to the debate, including market conditions, policy proposals, WTO considerations, and the interactions between policy and markets. This online-only report, http://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/WHS-0701-01/, is the first of the occasional Wheat Outlook supplements that will provide timely analysis on specific topics. Readers will no longer have to wait for the Wheat Situation and Outlook Yearbook for all of the in-depth reports and special articles on the wheat sector. ============================================================================== Table 1--Wheat: U.S. market year supply and disappearance, 1/15/02 ===================================================================== Item 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01E 2001/02P ===================================================================== Area: (mil. ac.) National toal base 87.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Eff.base/Ctr. acres 0,50/92,85 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 CRP base retired 10.6 10.1 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 Planted 75.1 70.4 65.8 62.7 62.6 59.6 Harvested 62.8 62.8 59.0 53.8 53.1 48.7 Yield: (bu/acre) 36.3 39.5 43.2 42.7 42.0 40.2 Supply: (mil. bu.) Beginning stocks 376.0 443.6 722.5 945.9 949.7 876.2 Production 2,277.4 2,481.5 2,547.3 2,299.0 2,232.5 1,957.6 Imports 1/ 92.3 94.9 103.0 94.5 89.8 95.0 Total supply 2,745.7 3,020.0 3,372.8 3,339.4 3,272.0 2,928.8 Use: Food 890.7 914.1 909.7 928.9 956.4 950.0 Seed 102.3 92.5 80.5 91.8 79.8 83.0 Feed and residual 307.6 250.5 394.4 279.4 298.2 225.0 Total domestic 1,300.6 1,257.1 1,384.7 1,300.1 1,334.4 1,258.0 Exports 1/ 1,001.5 1,040.4 1,042.2 1,089.5 1,061.5 1,000.0 Total use 2,302.1 2,297.5 2,426.9 2,389.7 2,395.9 2,258.0 Ending stocks: 443.6 722.5 945.9 949.7 876.2 670.8 Farmer-owned reserve 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 CCC inventory 2/ 93.0 94.0 128.0 104.0 97.0 94.0 Free stocks 350.6 628.5 817.9 845.7 779.2 576.8 Stocks-to-use ratio 19.3 31.4 39.0 39.7 36.6 29.7 Prices: ($/bu.) Target price 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Loan rate 2.58 2.58 2.58 2.58 2.58 2.58 Contract rate 3/ 0.87 0.63 0.66 0.64 0.59 0.48 Ave. farm price 4.30 3.38 2.65 2.48 2.62 2.75-2.85 Contract pmts. (mil. dollars) 3/ 1,941 1,412 2,718 3,828 3,618 2,509 Market value of production (mil. dollars) 9,782 8,287 6,781 5,702 5,849 5,481 ===================================================================== 1/ Imports and exports include flour and other products expressed in wheat equivalent. 2/ Includes Food Security Reserve. 3/ Deficiency payments prior to 1996/97. Totals may not add due to rounding. E=Estimated, P=Projected, N.A.=not applicable. Source: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, WAOB, USDA. Table 2--Wheat: U.S. market year supply and disappearance, 1/15/02 ============================================================= 2000/01E HRW HRS SRW White Durum All wheat ============================================================ Area: Million acres Planted 30.41 14.38 9.52 4.39 3.94 62.63 Harvested 23.59 13.59 8.15 4.23 3.57 53.13 Yield:(bu/acre) 35.87 36.96 57.84 71.60 30.74 42.02 Supply: Million bushels Beg. stocks 457.9 218.0 133.0 91.0 49.8 949.7 Production 846.3 502.3 471.4 302.7 109.8 2,232.5 Imports 2/ 0.0 58.7 0.0 5.2 25.8 89.8 Total 1,304.3 779.1 604.4 398.9 185.4 3,272.0 Utilization: Total domestic 490.8 339.1 293.4 120.9 90.3 1,334.4 Exports 2/ 402.5 230.0 176.0 203.0 50.0 1,061.5 Total 893.3 569.1 469.4 323.9 140.3 2,395.9 Ending stocks: 411.0 210.0 135.0 75.0 45.2 876.2 ------------------------------------------------------------------ 2001/02P HRW HRS SRW White Durum All wheat ------------------------------------------------------------------ Area: Million acres Planted 28.96 14.77 8.65 4.33 2.91 59.62 Harvested 20.87 13.75 7.17 4.08 2.79 48.65 Yield:(bu/acre) 36.74 34.59 55.75 56.91 29.96 40.24 Supply: Million bushels Beg. stocks 411.0 210.0 135.0 75.0 45.2 876.2 Production 766.8 475.7 399.7 232.0 83.6 1,957.6 Imports 2/ 1.0 49.0 0.0 10.0 35.0 95.0 Total 1,178.8 734.7 534.7 317.0 163.7 2,928.8 Utilization: Total domestic 493.1 322.7 260.8 91.0 90.5 1,258.0 Exports 2/ 365.0 220.0 210.0 155.0 50.0 1,000.0 Total 858.1 542.7 470.8 246.0 140.5 2,258.0 Ending stocks: 320.7 192.0 63.9 71.0 23.2 670.8 ============================================================= 1/ ERS estimates of area, yield, and domestic use. 2/ Imports and exports include flour and other products expressed in wheat equivalent. Totals may not add due to rounding. E=Estimated, P=Projected. Source: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, WAOB, USDA. Table 3--Wheat: Quarterly supply and disappearance (1,000 bu.), 1/15/02 ========================================================================= Market Produc-Imports Supply Food Seed Feed Exports Ending Year tion 2/ 2/ stocks ========================================================================= Million bushels 1998/99 Jun-Aug 2,547 24 3,294 226 1 425 257 2,385 Sep-Nov --- 24 2,409 241 55 -74 292 1,896 Dec-Feb --- 28 1,923 213 1 12 247 1,450 Mar-May --- 27 1,477 230 23 32 246 946 Mkt. year 2,547 103 3,373 910 81 394 1,042 946 1999/00 Jun-Aug 2,299 31 3,276 230 6 270 324 2,445 Sep-Nov --- 19 2,465 241 55 -8 291 1,886 Dec-Feb --- 19 1,905 223 2 28 236 1,417 Mar-May --- 25 1,442 235 28 -10 239 950 Mkt. year 2,299 95 3,339 929 92 279 1,090 950 2000/01 E: Jun-Aug 2,232 20 3,203 239 1 324 286 2,353 Sep-Nov --- 25 2,378 253 50 -24 293 1,806 Dec-Feb --- 21 1,828 231 3 5 250 1,338 Mar-May --- 23 1,361 234 25 -7 233 876 Mkt. year 2,232 90 3,272 956 80 298 1,061 876 2001/02 P: Jun-Aug 1,958 26 2,860 236 3 245 219 2,156 Sep-Nov --- 27 2,183 250 51 -26 285 1,623 Dec-Feb --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Mar-May --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Mkt. year 1,958 95 2,929 950 83 225 1000 671 ========================================================================= 1/ Imports and exports include flour and selected products expressed in wheat equivalent. Totals might not add due to rounding. E=Estimated, P=Projected. Table 4--Monthly food use estimates for last 12 months, 1/15/02 (1,000 bu.) =================================================================== Item Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar =================================================================== Mill grind + 86,755 83,038 77,944 74,926 74,331 78,862 Food imports 1/ + 1,967 2,130 2,039 2,036 1,734 2,122 Non-flour food use 2/ + 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 Food exports 1/ - 4,442 2,588 3,021 2,532 2,454 2,488 Food use = 86,280 84,580 78,962 76,430 75,611 80,496 =================================================================== Item Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept =================================================================== Mill grind + 75,010 76,695 73,378 74,624 81,559 78,425 Food imports 1/ + 2,003 2,013 2,042 2,062 2,181 1,563 Non-flour food use 2/ + 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 Food exports 1/ - 4,133 2,367 1,679 905 1,268 1,201 Food use = 74,880 78,341 75,741 77,782 84,471 80,786 =================================================================== 1/ Wheat flour and flour products converted to wheat grain equivalent. 2/ ERS estimate of cereal use. Totals may not add due to rounding. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Census. Table 5--Wheat: National average price received by farmers 1/15/02 ($/bu.) ================================================================== Farm prices 1/ ================================================================== Month All wheat Winter Durum Other spring ----------------------------------------------------------------------- 00/01 01/02 00/01 01/02 00/01 01/02 00/01 01/02 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- June 2.50 2.74 2.43 2.68 2.71 3.37 2.90 3.03 July 2.32 2.70 2.23 2.67 2.90 2.74 2.74 2.78 August 2.41 2.73 2.31 2.71 2.33 2.38 2.59 2.84 September 2.44 2.85 2.37 2.81 2.32 3.02 2.59 2.87 October 2.68 2.86 2.63 2.81 2.42 2.89 2.80 2.97 November 2.83 2.88 2.70 2.81 2.97 3.08 2.97 2.91 December 2.87 2.89 2.76 2.84 3.03 3.13 2.98 2.91 January 2.85 2.77 2.94 2.96 February 2.83 2.74 2.60 2.99 March 2.87 2.85 2.40 2.99 April 2.86 2.77 2.52 3.05 May 2.98 2.94 2.53 3.13 ================================================================== 1/ Preliminary mid-month weighted average price for current month of the 2000/01 marketing year. Source: Agricultural Prices, National Agricultural Statistics Service, USDA. Table 6--Wheat by class: Regional average price received by farmers 1/15/02 =================================================================== Regional farm price =================================================================== Hard Winter Soft Winter Hard Spring Soft White Month So. Plains 1/ Corn Belt 2/ No. Plains 3/ Northwest 4/ 00/01 01/02 00/01 01/02 00/01 01/02 00/01 01/02 =================================================================== Dollars per bushel 5/ June 2.52 2.85 2.24 2.32 2.90 3.03 2.50 3.09 July 2.40 2.65 1.99 2.36 2.74 2.78 2.57 3.17 August 2.35 2.66 1.95 2.50 2.59 2.84 2.38 3.14 September 2.54 2.62 2.03 2.41 2.59 2.87 2.43 3.23 October 2.74 2.65 2.09 2.68 2.80 2.97 2.58 3.33 November 2.80 2.67 2.21 2.70 2.97 2.91 2.70 3.34 December 2.82 2.65 2.31 2.69 2.98 2.91 2.74 3.38 January 2.87 2.41 2.96 2.72 February 2.79 2.48 2.99 2.79 March 2.86 2.37 2.99 2.97 April 2.78 2.20 3.05 3.08 May 2.98 2.37 3.13 3.13 =================================================================== 1/ Average price of winter wheat in Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma, and Texas. 2/ Average price of winter wheat in Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, and Missouri. 3/ Monthly weighted U.S. average price for other spring wheat. 4/ Average price of all wheat in Washington, Oregon, and Idaho. 5/ Current month of current year based on preliminary mid-month prices. Note: Regional prices are ERS estimates. Source: State prices are from Agricultural Prices, NASS, USDA. Table 7--Wheat : Average cash grain bids at selected markets 1/15/02 ($/bu.) ====================================================================== KC HRW #1 KC HRW #1 Portland FOB Gulf Month ordinary 13% protein #1 HRW Ord. $/mt (#2 HRW) 00/01 01/02 00/01 01/02 00/01 01/02 00/01 01/02 ====================================================================== June 3.07 3.32 3.59 3.47 3.19 3.59 115.66 128.52 July 2.97 3.20 3.25 3.35 3.05 3.40 114.60 124.80 August 2.89 3.15 3.13 3.27 2.98 3.61 112.10 124.95 September 3.13 3.18 3.32 3.27 3.26 3.65 121.49 124.73 October 3.41 3.28 3.59 3.33 3.66 3.77 130.88 124.47 November 3.45 3.37 3.60 3.44 3.79 3.85 129.51 127.11 December 3.47 3.26 3.60 3.36 3.78 3.77 130.51 123.76 January 3.54 3.64 3.82 134.85 February 3.35 3.46 3.70 130.58 March 3.45 3.50 3.69 131.81 April 3.41 3.49 3.68 131.62 May 3.49 3.64 3.76 135.64 -------------------------------------------------------------------- Minneapolis Minneapolis Minneapolis Minneapolis Month DNS 13% prot. DNS 14% prot. DNS 15% prot. #1 HAD milling 00/01 01/02 00/01 01/02 00/01 01/02 00/01 01/02 -------------------------------------------------------------------- June 3.50 3.63 3.78 3.81 4.08 4.07 4.07 4.80 July 3.24 3.51 3.50 3.72 3.91 4.01 3.85 4.75 August 2.99 3.37 3.29 3.54 3.73 3.92 3.62 5.02 September 3.10 3.47 3.17 3.52 3.37 3.61 4.70 5.03 October 3.52 3.68 3.69 3.71 4.10 3.77 5.12 5.10 November 3.64 3.61 3.77 3.69 4.03 3.75 5.51 5.13 December 3.60 3.54 3.52 3.59 3.97 3.72 N/Q 5.04 January 3.60 3.79 4.12 N/Q February 3.53 3.68 3.97 4.50 March 3.45 3.63 3.98 4.98 April 3.59 3.73 4.02 5.00 May 3.69 3.88 4.12 N/Q -------------------------------------------------------------------- St. Louis Chicago Portland Portland Month #2 soft red #2 soft red #2 soft red #1 soft white 00/01 01/02 00/01 01/02 00/01 01/02 00/01 01/02 -------------------------------------------------------------------- June 2.59 2.41 2.41 2.40 2.27 2.21 2.92 3.37 July 2.17 2.67 2.14 2.56 2.06 2.52 2.78 3.45 August 2.04 2.66 2.08 2.57 2.00 2.58 2.65 3.52 September 2.06 2.73 2.13 2.57 1.98 2.57 2.78 3.65 October 2.41 2.94 2.36 2.68 2.15 2.70 2.86 3.73 November 2.42 2.90 2.42 2.75 2.15 2.93 2.94 3.75 December 2.48 2.96 2.47 2.83 2.26 2.96 2.98 3.71 January 2.52 2.57 2.43 3.01 February 2.55 2.49 2.33 3.15 March 2.53 2.56 2.36 3.26 April 2.40 2.52 2.32 3.20 May 2.45 2.51 2.30 3.37 ====================================================================== N/Q=no quote. Source: Grain and Feed Weekly Summary and Statistics, AMS, USDA. Table 8--Wheat: U.S. exports and imports for last 6 months 1/15/02 1/ ============================================================== Exports, (1,000 bu.) 2000/2001 ============================================================== Item 1/ May June July August September October Wheat grain 68,908 59,190 64,911 89,582 86,941 94,598 Wheat flour 2,163 1,412 661 1,990 1,005 3,226 Products 269 1,036 245 281 286 331 Total 71,340 61,638 65,817 91,853 88,231 98,154 -------------------------------------------------------------- Imports, (1,000 bu.) 2000/2001 -------------------------------------------------------------- Item 1/ May June July August September October Wheat grain 5,653 5,540 7,633 6,240 6,290 7,076 Wheat flour 742 738 734 856 695 843 Products 1,274 1,309 1,332 1,326 870 1,315 Total 7,669 7,588 9,698 8,422 7,856 9,235 ============================================================== Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Census. 1/ Wheat flour and products converted to wheat grain equivalent. Total may not add due to rounding. Table 9--Wheat: U.S. exports, Census and Exports Sales comparison, 1/15/02 ======================================================================== 1999/2000 2000/01 2001/02 (as of 1/10/02) --------------------------------------------------------- Importing Outstanding country Shipments Shipment sales Total --------------------------------------------------------------------- Data Export Export Export Source Census sales Census sales sales --------------------------------------------------------------------- 1,000 metric tons Country: Egypt 4,006 4,168 4,629 4,705 2,246 274 2,519 Japan 3,172 3,122 3,064 3,124 1,662 789 2,452 Philippines 2,126 2,175 1,977 2,024 931 415 1,346 Mexico 1,832 1,963 2,000 2,027 1,233 191 1,424 EU 1,330 1,300 1,300 1,429 1,558 159 1,716 South Korea 1,670 1,475 1,483 1,404 722 192 914 Nigeria 1,127 1,185 1,317 1,428 1,163 275 1,438 Taiwan 983 1,005 1,045 1,031 495 186 681 Israel 894 917 694 870 322 9 331 Colombia 779 726 607 626 279 124 403 Total grain 28,047 25,453 27,694 25,819 14,630 3,433 18,064 Total (including products) 29,158 25,500 28,889 25,856 14,647 3,439 18,086 USDA forecast of Census 27,216 ======================================================================== 1/ Export sales and shipments from USDA's weekly U.S. Export Sales report. 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