HDR1012000130030721951500Cattle HDR2012000130030721951500Cattle Narrative Released July 21, 1995, by the Agricultural Statistics Board. Inventory estimates refer to July 1, 1995. Calf Crop estimates are for the 1995 year. July 1 Cattle Inventory Up 2 Percent All cattle and calves in the United States as of July 1, 1995, totaled 114.3 million head, up 2 percent from July 1, 1994, and up 5 percent from the 109.0 million two years ago. All cows and heifers that have calved, at 46.7 million, were up 2 percent from a year ago and 5 percent above two years ago. -- Beef cows, at 37.2 million, were 3 percent above July 1, 1994, and 7 percent above July 1, 1993. -- Milk cows, at 9.5 million, were 1 percent below July 1, 1994, and 2 percent below two years ago. Other class estimates on July 1, 1995, and the changes from July 1 last year and two years ago, respectively, are as follows: -- All heifers 500 pounds and over, 17.4 million, up 2 percent from both years. -- Beef replacement heifers, 5.7 million, down 3 percent and no change. -- Milk replacement heifers, 3.9 million, down 2 percent from both years. -- Other heifers, 7.8 million, up 8 percent and up 7 percent. -- Steers weighing 500 pounds and over, 15.3 million, unchanged and up 3 percent. -- Bulls weighing 500 pounds and over, 2.4 million, up 4 percent and up 9 percent. -- Calves under 500 pounds, 32.5 million, up 3 percent and up 7 percent. -- All cattle and calves on feed for slaughter, 11.0 million, up 5 percent from a year ago. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ For information call Dean Groskurth at (202) 720-3040. Office hours are 8:00 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. ET. Mt An 2 (7-95) Calf Crop Up 2 Percent The 1995 calf crop is expected to be 41.5 million, up 2 percent from 1994 and 5 percent above 1993. Calves born during the first half of the year are estimated at 30.4 million, up 2 percent from 1994 and up 6 percent from 1993. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ This report was approved on July 21, 1995, by the Acting Secretary of Agriculture and the National Agricultural Statistics Service's Agricultural Statistics Board. Richard E. Rominger Rich Allen ---------------------------------- ------------------------------------- Acting Secretary of Agricultural Statistics Board Agriculture Chairperson Richard E. Rominger Rich Allen HDR2012000130030721951500Cattle and Calves Cattle and Calves: Number by Class and Calf Crop, United States, July 1, 1993-95 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : 1995 as Class : 1993 : 1994 : 1995 : % of 1994 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -------- 1,000 Head ------- Percent : Cattle and Calves : 109,000 111,800 114,300 102 : Cows and Heifers That Have Calved : 44,600 45,600 46,700 102 Beef Cows : 34,900 36,000 37,200 103 Milk Cows : 9,700 9,600 9,500 99 : Heifers 500 Pounds and Over : 17,000 17,100 17,400 102 For Beef Cow Replacement : 5,700 5,900 5,700 97 For Milk Cow Replacement : 4,000 4,000 3,900 98 Other Heifers : 7,300 7,200 7,800 108 : Steers 500 Pounds and Over : 14,900 15,300 15,300 100 Bulls 500 Pounds and Over : 2,200 2,300 2,400 104 Calves Under 500 Pounds : 30,300 31,500 32,500 103 : Calf Crop : 39,448 40,729 41,500 102 : Cattle on Feed : 10,500 11,000 105 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Calf Crop: Number and Percent of Total by Six-Month Period, United States, 1993-94 and Preliminary Calf Crop, 1995 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1993 : 1994 : 1995 :----------------------------------------------------------- Period : : % of : : % of : : % of : Number : Total : Number : Total : Number : Total -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Hd Percent 1,000 Hd Percent 1,000 Hd Percent : Jan 1 - Jun 30 : 28,800 73.0 29,800 73.2 30,400 73.3 Jul 1 - Dec 31 : 10,648 27.0 10,929 26.8 11,100 26.7 : Total : 39,448 100.0 40,729 100.0 41,500 100.0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Cattle and Calves: Balance Sheet, United States, January 1 - June 30, 1993-95 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Item : 1993 : 1994 : 1995 : : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Million Head : January 1 Inventory : 99.2 101.0 103.3 Calf Crop and Imports : 30.1 30.9 32.1 : Total Supply 2/ : 129.3 131.9 135.4 : Slaughter : 17.1 17.5 18.2 Deaths and Exports : 2.7 2.5 2.6 : Total Disappearance 2/ : 19.8 20.0 20.8 : Residual 2/ : -.5 -.1 -.3 : July 1 Inventory : 109.0 111.8 114.3 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Preliminary. 2/ Totals may not add due to rounding. HDR2012000130030721951500Reliability of July 1 Cattle and Calves Reliability of July 1 Cattle and Calves Estimates Survey Procedures: A random sample of U.S. producers was surveyed to provide data for these estimates. Survey procedures ensured that all cattle producers, regardless of size, had a chance to be included in the survey. Data were collected during the first half of June from about 50,000 small and medium sized operations. These operators were contacted by face-to-face personal interviews. About 8,500 large producers and feedlots were contacted during the first half of July by mail, telephone, and face-to-face personal interviews. Operators were asked to report inventories as of the first of the month and calf crop for the entire year of 1995. Estimating Procedures: These cattle estimates were prepared by the Agricultural Statistics Board after reviewing National and State indications and analysis. National and State survey data were reviewed for reasonableness with each other and with estimates from the previous year using a balance sheet. The balance sheet begins with the previous inventory estimate, adds to it estimates of births and imports for the first six months, and subtracts estimates of slaughter, exports, and deaths for the first six months of the current year. This indicated ending inventory level is compared to the Agricultural Statistics Board estimate for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Revisions to previous estimates are made to improve year to year and item to item relationships. Estimates for the previous year are subject to revision when current estimates are made and when the January 1 cattle inventory estimates are made. The reviews are primarily based on livestock slaughter and additional foreign trade and survey data. Estimates will also be reviewed after data from the Department of Commerce's five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions will be made after that date. Reliability: Since all cattle operators are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the table below. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and latest estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for cattle inventory estimates over the past 15 years is 0.6 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 114.3 million head by more than 0.6 percent, or about 686,000 head. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 1.0 percent, or about 1,143,000 head (the 90 percent confidence level). The table below also shows a 15 year record of the range of differences between first and latest estimates for selected items. Using estimates of all cattle and calves as an example, changes between the first inventory estimate and the latest estimate during the past 15 years have averaged 305,000 head, ranging from 0 to 1,500,000 head. During this period the initial inventory estimate has been below the latest estimate 2 times, above the latest estimate 7 times, and unchanged 6 times. This does not imply that the July 1 estimate is likely to understate or overstate final inventory. Reliability of July 1 Cattle Estimates 1/2/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Difference Between : Item : Root : : First and Latest : Number of : Mean : 90% : Estimates : Years : Square: Confidence :------------------------------------------- : Error : Level : : : : First : First : :---------------: Average: Smallest: Largest: Above : Below : : Percent: Head : : : : Latest: Latest ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -- Percent -- --------- 1,000 Head -------- -- Number -- : All Cattle : 0.6 1.0 1,143 305 0 1500 7 2 : All Cows : 0.5 1.0 467 92 0 450 8 2 : Calf Crop : 1.6 2.8 1,162 281 50 1082 11 4 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on July 1 data for the past 15 years. 2/ Data in the above table do not reflect the 1-3 percent changes made during the 1989-93 historic revision period. The root mean square error's would be about 1 percent higher if these were included. The next "Cattle" report will be released in February 1996. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination in its programs on the basis of race, color, national origin, sex, religion, age, disability, political beliefs, and marital or familial status. Persons with disabilities who require alternative means for communication of program information (braille, large print, audiotape, etc.) should contact the USDA Office of Communications at (202) 720-5881 (voice) or (202) 720-7808 (TDD). To file a complaint, write the Secretary of Agriculture, USDA, Washington, D.C., 20250, or call (202) 720-7327 (voice) or (202) 720-1127 (TDD). USDA is an equal employment opportunity employer.