HDR1012000130030719961500CATTLE Released July 19, 1996, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Cattle" call Dean Groskurth at (202) 720-3040, office hours 8:00 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. ET. For assistance with general agricultural statistics, information about NASS, its products or services, contact the NASS Information Hotline at 1-800-727-9540 or E-mail: NASS@NASS.USDA.GOV. The "Cattle" U.S. Summary is available on Autofax, (202) 720-2000, report 3050. See page 7. July 1 Cattle Inventory Down 1 Percent All cattle and calves in the United States as of July 1, 1996, totaled 112.0 million head, down 1 percent from July 1, 1995, but up 1 percent from the 111.3 million two years ago. All cows and heifers that have calved, at 45.0 million, were down 1 percent from a year ago and slightly below two years ago. -- Beef cows, at 35.6 million, were 1 percent below July 1, 1995 and the same as July 1, 1994. -- Milk cows, at 9.4 million, were 1 percent below both July 1, 1995 and July 1, 1994. Other class estimates on July 1, 1996, and the changes from July 1 last year and two years ago, respectively, are as follows: -- All heifers 500 pounds and over, 17.3 million, down 2 percent and down 1 percent. -- Beef replacement heifers, 5.5 million, down 4 percent and down 7 percent. -- Milk replacement heifers, 3.7 million, down 5 percent and down 7 percent. -- Other heifers, 8.1 million, up 1 percent and up 8 percent. -- Steers weighing 500 pounds and over, 15.4 million, no change and up 1 percent. -- Bulls weighing 500 pounds and over, 2.4 million, no change and up 4 percent. -- Calves under 500 pounds, 31.9 million, down slightly and up 2 percent. -- All cattle and calves on feed for slaughter, 9.8 million, down 12 percent and down 7 percent. Mt An 2 (7-96) Calf Crop Down 1 Percent The 1996 calf crop is expected to be 39.8 million, down 1 percent from both 1995 and 1994. Calves born during the first half of the year are estimated at 29.3 million, down 1 percent from 1995 and the same as 1994. This report was approved on July 19, 1996, by the Acting Secretary of Agriculture and the National Agricultural Statistics Service's Agricultural Statistics Board. Acting Secretary of Agricultural Statistics Board Agriculture Chairperson Richard E. Rominger Rich Allen Cattle and Calves: Number by Class and Calf Crop, United States, July 1, 1994-96 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : 1996 as Class : 1994 : 1995 : 1996 : % of 1995 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -------- 1,000 Head ------- Percent : Cattle and Calves : 111,300 113,000 112,000 99 : Cows and Heifers That Have Calved : 45,100 45,600 45,000 99 Beef Cows : 35,600 36,100 35,600 99 Milk Cows : 9,500 9,500 9,400 99 : Heifers 500 Pounds and Over : 17,400 17,600 17,300 98 For Beef Cow Replacement : 5,900 5,700 5,500 96 For Milk Cow Replacement : 4,000 3,900 3,700 95 Other Heifers : 7,500 8,000 8,100 101 : Steers 500 Pounds and Over : 15,200 15,400 15,400 100 Bulls 500 Pounds and Over : 2,300 2,400 2,400 100 Calves Under 500 Pounds : 31,300 32,000 31,900 100 : Calf Crop : 40,059 40,251 39,800 99 : Cattle on Feed : 10,500 *11,200 9,800 88 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- * Revised. Calf Crop: Number and Percent of Total by Six-Month Period, United States, 1994-95 and Preliminary Calf Crop, 1996 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1994 : 1995 : 1996 :----------------------------------------------------------- Period : : % of : : % of : : % of : Number : Total : Number : Total : Number : Total -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Hd Percent 1,000 Hd Percent 1,000 Hd Percent : Jan 1 - Jun 30 : 29,300 73.1 29,500 73.3 29,300 73.6 Jul 1 - Dec 31 : 10,759 26.9 10,751 26.7 10,500 26.4 : Total : 40,059 100.0 40,251 100.0 39,800 100.0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Cattle and Calves: Balance Sheet, United States, January 1 - June 30, 1994-96 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Item : 1994 : 1995 : 1996 : : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Million Head : January 1 Inventory : 101.0 102.8 103.8 Calf Crop and Imports : 30.4 31.2 30.4 : Total Supply 2/ : 131.4 133.9 134.2 : Slaughter : 17.5 18.3 19.5 Deaths and Exports : 2.5 2.5 2.6 : Total Disappearance 2/ : 19.9 20.8 22.1 : Residual 2/ : -.1 -.1 -.1 : July 1 Inventory : 111.3 113.0 112.0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Preliminary. 2/ Totals may not add due to rounding. Reliability of July 1 Cattle and Calves Estimates Survey Procedures: A random sample of U.S. producers was surveyed to provide data for these estimates. Survey procedures ensured that all cattle producers, regardless of size, had a chance to be included in the survey. Data were collected during the first half of June from over 40,000 small and medium sized operations. These operators were contacted by face-to -face personal interviews. About 9,500 large producers and feedlots were contacted during the first half of July by mail, telephone, and face-to-face personal interviews. Operators were asked to report inventories as of the first of the month and calf crop for the entire year of 1996. Estimating Procedures: These cattle estimates were prepared by the Agricultural Statistics Board after reviewing National and State indications and analysis. National and State survey data were reviewed for reasonableness with each other and with estimates from the previous year using a balance sheet. The balance sheet begins with the previous inventory estimate, adds to it estimates of births and imports for the first six months, and subtracts estimates of slaughter, exports, and deaths for the first six months of the current year. This indicated ending inventory level is compared to the Agricultural Statistics Board estimate for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Revisions to previous estimates are made to improve year to year and item to item relationships. Estimates for the previous year are subject to revision when current estimates are made and when the January 1 cattle inventory estimates are made. The reviews are primarily based on livestock slaughter and additional foreign trade and survey data. Estimates will also be reviewed after data from the Department of Commerce's five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions will be made after that date. Reliability: Since all cattle operators are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the table below. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and latest estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for cattle inventory estimates over the past 15 years is 0.7 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 112.0 million head by more than 0.7 percent, or about 784,000 head. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 1.2 percent, or about 1,344,000 head (the 90 percent confidence level). The table below also shows a 15 year record of the range of differences between first and latest estimates for selected items. Using estimates of all cattle and calves as an example, changes between the first inventory estimate and the latest estimate during the past 15 years have averaged 399,000 head, ranging from 0 to 1,500,000 head. During this period the initial inventory estimate has been below the latest estimate 2 times, above the latest estimate 7 times, and unchanged 6 times. This does not imply that the July 1 estimate is likely to understate or overstate final inventory. Reliability of July 1 Cattle Estimates 1/2/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Difference Between : : : : First and Latest : Number of : Root : 90% : Estimates : Years Item : Mean : Confidence :------------------------------------------- : Square: Level : : : : First : First : Error :---------------: Average: Smallest: Largest: Above : Below : : Percent: Head : : : : Latest: Latest ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -- Percent -- --------- 1,000 Head -------- -- Number -- : All Cattle : 0.7 1.2 1,344 399 0 1500 7 2 : All Cows : 0.9 1.6 720 185 0 1100 8 2 : Calf Crop : 1.8 3.1 1,234 370 50 1249 12 3 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on July 1 data for the past 15 years. 2/ Data in the above table do not reflect the 1-3 percent changes made during the 1989-93 historic revision period. The root mean square error's would be about 1 percent higher if these were included. The next "Cattle" report will be released in January 1997. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination in its programs on the basis of race, color, national origin, sex, religion, age, disability, political beliefs, and marital or familial status. Persons with disabilities who require alternative means for communication of program information (braille, large print, audiotape, etc.) should contact the USDA Office of Communications at (202) 720-5881 (voice) or (202) 720-7808 (TDD). To file a complaint, write the Secretary of Agriculture, USDA, Washington, D.C., 20250, or call (202) 720-7327 (voice) or (202) 720-1127 (TDD). USDA is an equal employment opportunity employer. SUBSCRIBE TODAY!! For your convenience, there are several ways to obtain NASS reports, data products, and services: INTERNET ACCESS All NASS reports are now available free of charge on the worldwide Internet. For access, connect to the Internet and select: 1. Worldwide Web: http://www.usda.gov/nass/ OR 2. For Gopher/Telenet/FTP access: HOST=usda.mannlib.cornell.edu OR 3. For a subscription direct to your e-mail address, send an e-mail message to: usda-reports@usda.mannlib.cornell.edu and in the body of the message type the word: list AUTOFAX ACCESS NASSFax service is available for some reports from your fax machine. Please call 202-720-2000, using the handset attached to your fax. Respond to the voice prompts. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - PRINTED REPORTS OR DATA PRODUCTS CALL OUR TOLL-FREE ORDER DESK: 1-800-999-6779 (U.S. and Canada) Other areas, please call l-703-834-0125 FAX: 1-703-834-0110 (Visa, MasterCard, check, or money order acceptable for payment.) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ASSISTANCE For assistance with general agricultural statistics or further information about NASS or its products or services, contact the NASS INFORMATION HOTLINE at 1-800-727-9540, 8:00 a.m. to 4:30 p.m., or e-mail: NASS@NASS.USDA.GOV.