Mt An 2-1 (11-06) Cattle On Feed National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released November 17, 2006, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Cattle on Feed" call Mike Miller at (202) 720-3040, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. U.S. Cattle on Feed Up 4 Percent Cattle and calves on feed for slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 12.0 million head on November 1, 2006. The inventory was 4 percent above November 1, 2005 and 6 percent above November 1, 2004. This is the highest November 1 inventory since the series began in 1996. Placements in feedlots during October totaled 2.43 million, 13 percent below 2005 and 10 percent below 2004. Net placements were 2.34 million head. This is the second lowest placements for the month of October since the series began in 1996. During October, placements of cattle and calves weighing less than 600 pounds were 840,000, 600-699 pounds were 645,000, 700-799 pounds were 485,000, and 800 pounds and greater were 455,000. Marketings of fed cattle during October totaled 1.77 million, 2 percent above 2005 but 2 percent below 2004. Other disappearance totaled 81,000 during October, 40 percent above 2005 and 23 percent above 2004. Cattle on Feed: Number on Feed, Placements, Marketings, and Other Disappearance, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, United States, November 1, 2004-2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : 2006 as % of Item :-------------------------------------------- : 2004 : 2005 : 2006 : 2004 : 2005 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 Head ------ Percent : On Feed Oct 1 1/ : 10,502 10,482 11,385 108 109 Placed on Feed During Oct : 2,701 2,788 2,425 90 87 Fed Cattle Marketed During Oct : 1,803 1,739 1,770 98 102 Other Disappearance During Oct 2/ : 66 58 81 123 140 On Feed Nov 1 1/ : 11,334 11,473 11,959 106 104 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Cattle and calves on feed are animals for slaughter market being fed a ration of grain or other concentrates and are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. 2/ Includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture, and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Cattle on Feed: Number on Feed, Placements, Marketings, and Other Disappearance, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, United States, October 1, 2004-2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : 2006 as % of Item :-------------------------------------------- : 2004 : 2005 : 2006 : 2004 : 2005 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 Head ------ Percent : On Feed Sep 1 1/ : 9,988 10,000 10,986 110 110 Placed on Feed During Sep : 2,375 2,355 *2,227 94 95 Fed Cattle Marketed During Sep : 1,800 1,816 *1,760 98 97 Other Disappearance During Sep 2/ : 61 57 68 111 119 On Feed Oct 1 1/ : 10,502 10,482 11,385 108 109 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- * Revised. 1/ Cattle and calves on feed are animals for slaughter market being fed a ration of grain or other concentrates and are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. 2/ Includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture, and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Cattle on Feed: Number on Feed, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States 2005-2006 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Nov 1, 2006 : : :------------------------------------------ State : Nov 1, 2005 : Oct 1, 2006 : : as % of : as % of : : : Number : 2005 : Oct -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 Head ------------ ---- Percent ---- : AZ : 323 336 342 106 102 CA : 545 525 530 97 101 CO : 1,030 1,060 1,120 109 106 ID : 290 265 285 98 108 IA : 475 460 490 103 107 KS : 2,410 2,450 2,550 106 104 NE : 2,280 2,220 2,440 107 110 NM : 141 143 141 100 99 OK : 360 355 360 100 101 SD : 161 170 190 118 112 TX : 2,970 2,930 2,990 101 102 WA : 163 171 181 111 106 : Oth Sts: 325 300 340 105 113 : US : 11,473 11,385 11,959 104 105 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Cattle and calves on feed are animals for slaughter market being fed a ration of grain or other concentrates and are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. Cattle on Feed: Number Placed on Feed, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States 2005-2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During Oct 2006 : During : During :------------------------------------------ State : Oct 2005 : Sep 2006 : : as % of : as % of : : : Number : 2005 : Sep -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 Head ----------- ---- Percent ---- : AZ : 33 28 34 103 121 CA : 64 72 71 111 99 CO : 285 *240 210 74 88 ID : 76 72 71 93 99 IA : 131 81 109 83 135 KS : 580 500 520 90 104 NE : 660 500 560 85 112 NM : 22 21 14 64 67 OK : 79 71 65 82 92 SD : 68 50 64 94 128 TX : 670 495 590 88 119 WA : 34 37 34 100 92 : Oth Sts: 86 60 83 97 138 : US : 2,788 *2,227 2,425 87 109 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- * Revised. Cattle on Feed: Number Placed on Feed by Weight Group, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States, 2005-2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : During October :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : Under 600 : 600-699 : 700-799 : 800 Plus : Total :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head : CO : 75 55 65 50 60 45 85 60 285 210 KS : 170 180 175 120 130 125 105 95 580 520 NE : 220 175 200 175 120 95 120 115 660 560 TX : 185 210 205 185 200 135 80 60 670 590 : Oth Sts : 230 220 145 115 83 85 135 125 593 545 : US : 880 840 790 645 593 485 525 455 2,788 2,425 :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : During September :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : Under 600 : 600-699 : 700-799 : 800 Plus : Total :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head : CO : 30 *45 45 35 70 50 135 110 280 *240 KS : 120 185 120 105 130 100 140 110 510 500 NE : 85 105 90 70 120 120 205 205 500 500 TX : 175 230 185 135 130 85 60 45 550 495 : Oth Sts : 155 155 65 67 100 95 195 175 515 492 : US : 565 *720 505 412 550 450 735 645 2,355 *2,227 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- * Revised. Cattle on Feed: Number Marketed, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States 2005-2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During Oct 2006 : During : During :------------------------------------------ State : Oct 2005 : Sep 2006 : : as % of : as % of : : : Number : 2005 : Sep -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 Head ----------- ---- Percent ---- : AZ : 27 26 27 100 104 CA : 50 64 62 124 97 CO : 150 *135 140 93 104 ID : 55 41 50 91 122 IA : 65 73 78 120 107 KS : 400 420 395 99 94 NE : 310 320 330 106 103 NM : 16 16 13 81 81 OK : 53 59 58 109 98 SD : 35 34 43 123 126 TX : 520 510 510 98 100 WA : 23 23 23 100 100 : Oth Sts: 35 39 41 117 105 : US : 1,739 *1,760 1,770 102 101 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- * Revised. Cattle on Feed: Other Disappearance, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States 2005-2006 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During Oct 2006 : During : During :------------------------------------------ State : Oct 2005 : Sep 2006 : : as % of : as % of : : : Number : 2005 : Sep -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------- 1,000 Head ---------- ---- Percent ---- : AZ : 1 2 1 100 50 CA : 4 3 4 100 133 CO : 5 5 10 200 200 ID : 1 1 1 100 100 IA : 1 3 1 100 33 KS : 20 20 25 125 125 NE : 10 10 10 100 100 NM : 1 4 3 300 75 OK : 1 2 2 200 100 SD : 2 1 1 50 100 TX : 10 15 20 200 133 WA : 1 1 1 100 100 : Oth Sts: 1 1 2 200 200 : US : 58 68 81 140 119 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture, and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Terms and Definitions of Cattle on Feed Estimates Cattle on feed are animals being fed a ration of grain, silage, hay and/or protein supplement for slaughter market that are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. It excludes cattle being "backgrounded only" for later sale as feeders or later placement in another feedlot. Placements are cattle put into a feedlot, fed a ration which will produce a carcass that will grade select or better, and are intended for the slaughter market. Marketings are cattle shipped out of feedlots to a slaughter market. Other disappearance includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture, and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Reliability of Cattle on Feed Estimates Survey Procedures: During January and July all known feedlots in the U.S. with capacity of 1,000 or more head are surveyed to provide data for cattle on feed estimates. During the other months, all known feedlots from 17 States are surveyed. The 17 States account for 98 percent of the cattle on feed in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head. Estimating Procedures: These cattle on feed estimates were prepared by the Agricultural Statistics Board after reviewing recommendations and analysis submitted by each State office. Regional and State survey data were reviewed for reasonableness with each other and with estimates from the previous month when setting the current estimates. Revision Policy: Revisions to previous estimates are made to improve month to month relationships. Estimates for the previous month are subject to revision in all States each month when current estimates are made. In February, all monthly estimates for the previous year, and the number of feedlots and annual marketings from two years ago are reviewed and subject to revisions. The reviews are primarily based on slaughter data, state check-off or brand data, and any other data that may have been received after the original estimate was made. Estimates will also be reviewed after data from the Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions will be made after that date and estimates become final. Reliability: Since all 1,000+ capacity cattle on feed operators in every State are not included in the monthly survey, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the following table. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and latest estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for cattle on feed inventory estimates over the past 10 years is .2 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 12.0 million head by more than .2 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed .3 percent. The following table also shows a 10 year record of the range of differences between first and latest estimates for selected items. Using estimates of number on feed as an example, changes between the first estimate and the latest estimate during the past 10 years have averaged 10,000 head, ranging from 0 to 44,000 head. During this period the initial estimate has been below the final estimate 5 times, and above the final estimate 1 time. This does not imply that the initial estimate is likely to understate or overstate final inventory. Reliability of U.S. November 1 Cattle on Feed Estimates 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 90% : Difference Between : : : Confidence : First and Final : Number of : Root : Level : Estimates 1/ : Years Item : Mean :--------------------------------------------------------- : Square : : : : : : First : First : Error :Percent: (000) :Average:Smallest:Largest: Above : Below : : : Head : : : : Final : Final -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent -------- 1,000 Head -------- Number : Number on : Feed : 0.2 0.3 36.2 10 0 44 1 5 : Placements : 0.4 0.7 17.5 8 0 20 1 6 : Marketings : 0.5 1.0 17.4 7 0 20 1 6 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on data for the past 10 years. Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. Dan Kerestes, Chief Livestock Branch(202) 720-3570 William Weaver, Head, Livestock Section (202) 720-3570 Bruce Boess - Hogs and Pigs(202) 720-3106 Shawn Clark - Dairy Products(202) 690-3236 Jason Hardegree - Milk Production and Milk Cows(202) 720-3278 Scott Hollis - Sheep & Lambs, Goats(202) 720-4751 Mike Miller - Cattle, Cattle on Feed(202) 720-3040 Katy Paulsen - Livestock Slaughter(515) 284-4340 Charmaine Wilson - Dairy Products Prices(202) 690-2168 ACCESS TO REPORTS!! For your convenience, there are several ways to obtain NASS reports, data products, and services: INTERNET ACCESS All NASS reports are available free of charge on the worldwide Internet. For access, connect to the Internet and go to the NASS Home Page at: www.nass.usda.gov. 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