Mt An 2-1 (8-08) Cattle on Feed National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released August 22, 2008, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Cattle on Feed" call Jason Hardegree at (202) 720-3040, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. U.S. Cattle on Feed Down 4 Percent Cattle and calves on feed for slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 9.87 million head on August 1, 2008. The inventory was 4 percent below August 1, 2007 and 9 percent below August 1, 2006. Placements in feedlots during July totaled 1.66 million, 2 percent above 2007 but 15 percent below 2006. Net placements were 1.62 million head. This is the second lowest placements for the month of July since the series began in 1996. During July, placements of cattle and calves weighing less than 600 pounds were 360,000, 600-699 pounds were 320,000, 700-799 pounds were 476,000 and 800 pounds and greater were 505,000. Marketings of fed cattle during July totaled 2.04 million, 2 percent above 2007 and 5 percent above 2006. Other disappearance totaled 45,000 during July, 26 percent below 2007 and 22 percent below 2006. Cattle on Feed: Number on Feed, Placements, Marketings, and Other Disappearance, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, United States, August 1, 2006-2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : 2008 as % of Item :------------------------------------------ : 2006 : 2007 : 2008 : 2006 : 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 Head ------ Percent : On Feed Jul 1 1/ : 10,872 10,737 10,295 95 96 Placed on Feed During Jul : 1,958 1,622 1,661 85 102 Fed Cattle Marketed During Jul : 1,950 1,999 2,042 105 102 Other Disappearance During Jul 2/ : 58 61 45 78 74 On Feed Aug 1 : 10,822 10,299 9,869 91 96 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Cattle and calves on feed are animals for slaughter market being fed a ration of grain or other concentrates and are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. 2/ Includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture, and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Cattle on Feed: Number on Feed, Placements, Marketings, and Other Disappearance, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, United States, July 1, 2006-2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : 2008 as % of Item :------------------------------------------ : 2006 : 2007 : 2008 : 2006 : 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 Head ------ Percent : On Feed Jun 1 1/ : 11,187 11,272 10,815 97 96 Placed on Feed During Jun : 1,946 1,657 *1,518 78 92 Fed Cattle Marketed During Jun : 2,198 2,140 *1,978 90 92 Other Disappearance During Jun 2/ : 63 52 60 95 115 On Feed Jul 1 1/ : 10,872 10,737 10,295 95 96 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- * Revised. 1/ Cattle and calves on feed are animals for slaughter market being fed a ration of grain or other concentrates and are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. 2/ Includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture, and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Cattle on Feed: Number on Feed, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States 2007-2008 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Aug 1, 2008 : : :------------------------------------------ State : Aug 1, 2007 : Jul 1, 2008 : : as % of : as % of : : : Number : 2007 : Jul -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 Head ----------- ---- Percent ---- : AZ : 341 356 357 105 100 CA : 540 520 515 95 99 CO : 870 820 750 86 91 ID : 205 200 180 88 90 IA : 500 500 475 95 95 KS : 2,100 2,080 2,010 96 97 NE : 1,910 2,050 1,920 101 94 NM : 129 154 164 127 106 OK : 305 300 290 95 97 SD : 175 185 170 97 92 TX : 2,780 2,660 2,590 93 97 WA : 144 140 133 92 95 : Oth Sts: 300 330 315 105 95 : US : 10,299 10,295 9,869 96 96 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Cattle and calves on feed are animals for slaughter market being fed a ration of grain or other concentrates and are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. Cattle on Feed: Number Placed on Feed, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States 2007-2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During Jul 2008 : During : During :------------------------------------------ State : Jul 2007 : Jun 2008 : : as % of : as % of : : : Number : 2007 : Jun -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 Head ----------- ---- Percent ---- : AZ : 32 32 37 116 116 CA : 51 52 45 88 87 CO : 115 *85 105 91 124 ID : 35 33 29 83 88 IA : 64 41 51 80 124 KS : 430 330 440 102 133 NE : 350 290 320 91 110 NM : 12 32 32 267 100 OK : 48 57 46 96 81 SD : 22 21 21 95 100 TX : 390 460 460 118 100 WA : 27 28 32 119 114 : Oth Sts: 46 57 43 93 75 : US : 1,622 *1,518 1,661 102 109 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- * Revised. Cattle on Feed: Number Placed on Feed by Weight Group, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States, 2007-2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : During July :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : Under 600 : 600-699 : 700-799 : 800 Plus : Total :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head : CO : 15 15 20 20 35 30 45 40 115 105 KS : 75 70 90 90 140 155 125 125 430 440 NE : 55 40 60 50 90 90 145 140 350 320 TX : 110 130 100 110 115 130 65 90 390 460 : Oth Sts : 105 105 42 50 65 71 125 110 337 336 : US : 360 360 312 320 445 476 505 505 1,622 1,661 :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : During June :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : Under 600 : 600-699 : 700-799 : 800 Plus : Total :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head : CO : 15 20 20 10 35 25 50 *30 120 *85 KS : 80 60 70 75 125 100 100 95 375 330 NE : 75 40 55 40 70 70 130 140 330 290 TX : 110 135 135 140 160 120 80 65 485 460 : Oth Sts : 125 110 45 60 67 68 110 115 347 353 : US : 405 365 325 325 457 383 470 *445 1,657 *1,518 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- * Revised. Cattle on Feed: Number Marketed, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States 2007-2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During Jul 2008 : During : During :------------------------------------------ State : Jul 2007 : Jun 2008 : : as % of : as % of : : : Number : 2007 : Jun -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 Head ----------- ---- Percent ---- : AZ : 33 40 35 106 88 CA : 54 55 48 89 87 CO : 175 *175 170 97 97 ID : 49 47 48 98 102 IA : 73 60 75 103 125 KS : 450 430 500 111 116 NE : 480 475 440 92 93 NM : 14 27 21 150 78 OK : 67 61 55 82 90 SD : 42 38 35 83 92 TX : 470 480 520 111 108 WA : 32 32 38 119 119 : Oth Sts: 60 58 57 95 98 : US : 1,999 *1,978 2,042 102 103 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- * Revised. Cattle on Feed: Other Disappearance, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States 2007-2008 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During Jul 2008 : During : During :------------------------------------------ State : Jul 2007 : Jun 2008 : : as % of : as % of : : : Number : 2007 : Jun -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------- 1,000 Head ---------- ---- Percent ---- : AZ : 1 1 1 100 100 CA : 2 2 2 100 100 CO : 10 10 5 50 50 ID : 1 1 1 100 100 IA : 1 1 1 100 100 KS : 20 10 10 50 100 NE : 10 15 10 100 67 NM : 1 1 1 100 100 OK : 1 1 1 100 100 SD : 2 3 1 50 33 TX : 10 10 10 100 100 WA : 1 1 1 100 100 : Oth Sts: 1 4 1 100 25 : US : 61 60 45 74 75 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture, and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Terms and Definitions of Cattle on Feed Estimates Cattle on feed are animals being fed a ration of grain, silage, hay and/or protein supplement for slaughter market that are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. It excludes cattle being "backgrounded only" for later sale as feeders or later placement in another feedlot. Placements are cattle put into a feedlot, fed a ration which will produce a carcass that will grade select or better, and are intended for the slaughter market. Marketings are cattle shipped out of feedlots to a slaughter market. Other disappearance includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture, and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Reliability of Cattle on Feed Estimates Survey Procedures: During January and July all known feedlots in the U.S. with capacity of 1,000 or more head are surveyed to provide data for cattle on feed estimates. During the other months, all known feedlots from 17 States are surveyed. The 17 States account for 98 percent of the cattle on feed in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head. Estimating Procedures: These cattle on feed estimates were prepared by the Agricultural Statistics Board after reviewing recommendations and analysis submitted by each State office. Regional and State survey data were reviewed for reasonableness with each other and with estimates from the previous month when setting the current estimates. Revision Policy: Revisions to previous estimates are made to improve month to month relationships. Estimates for the previous month are subject to revision in all States each month when current estimates are made. In February, all monthly estimates for the previous year, and the number of feedlots and annual marketings from two years ago are reviewed and subject to revisions. The reviews are primarily based on slaughter data, state check-off or brand data, and any other data that may have been received after the original estimate was made. Estimates will also be reviewed after data from the Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions will be made after that date and estimates become final. Reliability: Since all 1,000+ capacity cattle on feed operators in every State are not included in the monthly survey, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the following table. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and latest estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for cattle on feed inventory estimates over the past 24 months is less than 0.1 percent (0.04). This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 9.87 million head by more than 0.04 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 0.1 percent. The following table also shows a 24 month record of the range of differences between first and latest estimates for selected items. Using estimates of number on feed as an example, changes between the first estimate and the latest estimate during the past 24 months have averaged 2,000 head, ranging from 0 to 18,000 head. During this period the initial estimate has not been above the final estimate, but has been below the final estimate 4 times. This does not imply that the initial estimate is likely to understate or overstate final inventory. Reliability of Monthly Cattle on Feed Estimates 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 90% : Difference Between : : : Confidence : First and Final : Number of : Root : Level : Estimates 1/ : Months Item : Mean :--------------------------------------------------------- : Square : : : : : : First : First : Error :Percent: (000) :Average:Smallest:Largest: Above : Below : : : Head : : : : Final : Final -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent -------- 1,000 Head -------- Number : Number on : Feed : 0.0 0.1 9.9 2 0 18 0 4 : Placements : 0.2 0.4 6.6 3 0 10 7 5 : Marketings : 0.2 0.4 8.2 2 0 10 8 1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on data for the past 24 months. Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. Dan Kerestes, Chief, Livestock Branch...........................................(202) 720-3570 Livestock Section Scott Hollis, Head, Livestock Section...........................................(202) 690-2424 Jim Collom - Dairy Products..............................................(202) 690-3236 Joe Gaynor - Dairy Products Prices.......................................(202) 690-2168 Jason Hardegree - Cattle, Cattle on Feed.................................(202) 720-3040 Benita Hodge - Livestock Slaughter.......................................(515) 284-4340 Everett Olbert - Sheep and Goats.........................................(202) 720-4751 Mike Miller - Milk Production and Milk Cows..............................(202) 720-3278 Nick Streff - Hogs and Pigs..............................................(202) 720-3106 ACCESS TO REPORTS!! 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