Mt An 2-1 (12-08) Cattle on Feed National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released December 19, 2008, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Cattle on Feed" call Jason Hardegree at (202) 720-3040, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. U.S. Cattle on Feed Down 6 Percent Cattle and calves on feed for slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.3 million head on December 1, 2008. The inventory was 6 percent below December 1, 2007 and 5 percent below December 1, 2006. Placements in feedlots during November totaled 2.02 million, 5 percent below 2007 but 7 percent above 2006. Net placements were 1.95 million head. During November, placements of cattle and calves weighing less than 600 pounds were 565,000, 600-699 pounds were 630,000, 700-799 pounds were 450,000, and 800 pounds and greater were 370,000. Marketings of fed cattle during November totaled 1.58 million, 9 percent below 2007 and 12 percent below 2006. This is the second lowest fed cattle marketings for the month of November since the series began in 1996. Other disappearance totaled 67,000 during November, 18 percent above 2007 and 19 percent below 2006. Cattle on Feed: Number on Feed, Placements, Marketings, and Other Disappearance, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, United States, December 1, 2006-2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : 2008 as % of Item :------------------------------------------ : 2006 : 2007 : 2008 : 2006 : 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 Head ------ Percent : On Feed Nov 1 1/ : 11,969 11,769 10,972 92 93 Placed on Feed During Nov : 1,884 2,125 2,015 107 95 Fed Cattle Marketed During Nov : 1,797 1,738 1,575 88 91 Other Disappearance During Nov 2/ : 83 57 67 81 118 On Feed Dec 1 : 11,973 12,099 11,345 95 94 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Cattle and calves on feed are animals for slaughter market being fed a ration of grain or other concentrates and are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. 2/ Includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture, and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Cattle on Feed: Number on Feed, Placements, Marketings, and Other Disappearance, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, United States, November 1, 2006-2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : 2008 as % of Item :------------------------------------------ : 2006 : 2007 : 2008 : 2006 : 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 Head ------ Percent : On Feed Oct 1 1/ : 11,385 10,967 10,415 91 95 Placed on Feed During Oct : 2,430 2,725 2,438 100 89 Fed Cattle Marketed During Oct : 1,765 1,876 1,814 103 97 Other Disappearance During Oct 2/ : 81 47 67 83 143 On Feed Nov 1 1/ : 11,969 11,769 10,972 92 93 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Cattle and calves on feed are animals for slaughter market being fed a ration of grain or other concentrates and are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. 2/ Includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture, and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Cattle on Feed: Number on Feed, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States 2007-2008 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Dec 1, 2008 : : :------------------------------------------ State : Dec 1, 2007 : Nov 1, 2008 : : as % of : as % of : : : Number : 2007 : Nov -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 Head ------------ ---- Percent ---- : AZ : 367 362 359 98 99 CA : 555 500 495 89 99 CO : 1,070 960 1,010 94 105 ID : 240 210 225 94 107 IA : 570 485 500 88 103 KS : 2,500 2,230 2,310 92 104 NE : 2,520 2,310 2,380 94 103 NM : 149 172 167 112 97 OK : 345 320 335 97 105 SD : 215 200 220 102 110 TX : 3,010 2,710 2,810 93 104 WA : 168 163 169 101 104 : Oth Sts: 390 350 365 94 104 : US : 12,099 10,972 11,345 94 103 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Cattle and calves on feed are animals for slaughter market being fed a ration of grain or other concentrates and are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. Cattle on Feed: Number Placed on Feed, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States 2007-2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During Nov 2008 : During : During :------------------------------------------ State : Nov 2007 : Oct 2008 : : as % of : as % of : : : Number : 2007 : Oct -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 Head ----------- ---- Percent ---- : AZ : 37 31 26 70 84 CA : 73 54 48 66 89 CO : 190 245 185 97 76 ID : 48 55 65 135 118 IA : 96 104 92 96 88 KS : 450 450 405 90 90 NE : 485 590 440 91 75 NM : 31 17 20 65 118 OK : 62 75 69 111 92 SD : 50 70 57 114 81 TX : 510 630 510 100 81 WA : 31 38 36 116 95 : Oth Sts: 62 79 62 100 78 : US : 2,125 2,438 2,015 95 83 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Cattle on Feed: Number Placed on Feed by Weight Group, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States, 2007-2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : During November :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : Under 600 : 600-699 : 700-799 : 800 Plus : Total :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head : CO : 55 50 60 55 35 40 40 40 190 185 KS : 140 85 135 125 100 120 75 75 450 405 NE : 120 110 170 160 100 80 95 90 485 440 TX : 180 145 165 180 110 130 55 55 510 510 : Oth Sts : 190 175 130 110 75 80 95 110 490 475 : US : 685 565 660 630 420 450 360 370 2,125 2,015 :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : During October :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : Under 600 : 600-699 : 700-799 : 800 Plus : Total :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head : CO : 65 50 65 70 55 45 75 80 260 245 KS : 175 100 135 120 125 125 95 105 530 450 NE : 175 160 175 160 110 100 160 170 620 590 TX : 210 195 230 160 180 190 80 85 700 630 : Oth Sts : 240 195 140 105 85 83 150 140 615 523 : US : 865 700 745 615 555 543 560 580 2,725 2,438 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Cattle on Feed: Number Marketed, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States 2007-2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During Nov 2008 : During : During :------------------------------------------ State : Nov 2007 : Oct 2008 : : as % of : as % of : : : Number : 2007 : Oct -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 Head ----------- ---- Percent ---- : AZ : 27 28 28 104 100 CA : 61 57 50 82 88 CO : 145 150 130 90 87 ID : 42 39 49 117 126 IA : 75 93 75 100 81 KS : 355 360 310 87 86 NE : 355 375 355 100 95 NM : 23 17 23 100 135 OK : 50 68 52 104 76 SD : 38 43 35 92 81 TX : 490 495 395 81 80 WA : 27 31 29 107 94 : Oth Sts: 50 58 44 88 76 : US : 1,738 1,814 1,575 91 87 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Cattle on Feed: Other Disappearance, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States 2007-2008 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During Nov 2008 : During : During :------------------------------------------ State : Nov 2007 : Oct 2008 : : as % of : as % of : : : Number : 2007 : Oct -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------- 1,000 Head ---------- ---- Percent ---- : AZ : 3 1 1 33 100 CA : 2 2 3 150 150 CO : 5 5 5 100 100 ID : 1 1 1 100 100 IA : 1 1 2 200 200 KS : 15 20 15 100 75 NE : 10 15 15 150 100 NM : 2 1 2 100 200 OK : 2 2 2 100 100 SD : 2 2 2 100 100 TX : 10 15 15 150 100 WA : 2 1 1 50 100 : Oth Sts: 2 1 3 150 300 : US : 57 67 67 118 100 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture, and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Terms and Definitions of Cattle on Feed Estimates Cattle on feed are animals being fed a ration of grain, silage, hay and/or protein supplement for slaughter market that are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. It excludes cattle being "backgrounded only" for later sale as feeders or later placement in another feedlot. Placements are cattle put into a feedlot, fed a ration which will produce a carcass that will grade select or better, and are intended for the slaughter market. Marketings are cattle shipped out of feedlots to a slaughter market. Other disappearance includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture, and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Reliability of Cattle on Feed Estimates Survey Procedures: During January and July all known feedlots in the U.S. with capacity of 1,000 or more head are surveyed to provide data for cattle on feed estimates. During the other months, all known feedlots from 17 States are surveyed. The 17 States account for 98 percent of the cattle on feed in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head. Estimating Procedures: These cattle on feed estimates were prepared by the Agricultural Statistics Board after reviewing recommendations and analysis submitted by each State office. Regional and State survey data were reviewed for reasonableness with each other and with estimates from the previous month when setting the current estimates. Revision Policy: Revisions to previous estimates are made to improve month to month relationships. Estimates for the previous month are subject to revision in all States each month when current estimates are made. In February, all monthly estimates for the previous year, and the number of feedlots and annual marketings from two years ago are reviewed and subject to revisions. The reviews are primarily based on slaughter data, state check-off or brand data, and any other data that may have been received after the original estimate was made. Estimates will also be reviewed after data from the Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions will be made after that date and estimates become final. Reliability: Since all 1,000+ capacity cattle on feed operators in every State are not included in the monthly survey, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the following table. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and latest estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for cattle on feed inventory estimates over the past 24 months is less than 0.1 percent (0.03). This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 11.3 million head by more than 0.03 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 0.1 percent. The following table also shows a 24 month record of the range of differences between first and latest estimates for selected items. Using estimates of number on feed as an example, changes between the first estimate and the latest estimate during the past 24 months have averaged 1,000 head, ranging from 0 to 18,000 head. During this period the initial estimate has not been above the final estimate, but has been below the final estimate 3 times. This does not imply that the initial estimate is likely to understate or overstate final inventory. Reliability of Monthly Cattle on Feed Estimates 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 90% : Difference Between : : : Confidence : First and Final : Number of : Root : Level : Estimates 1/ : Months Item : Mean :--------------------------------------------------------- : Square : : : : : : First : First : Error :Percent: (000) :Average:Smallest:Largest: Above : Below : : : Head : : : : Final : Final -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent -------- 1,000 Head -------- Number : Number on : Feed : 0.0 0.1 11.3 1 0 18 0 3 : Placements : 0.2 0.3 6.0 2 0 10 4 5 : Marketings : 0.2 0.3 4.7 1 0 10 4 2 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on data for the past 24 months. Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. Dan Kerestes, Chief, Livestock Branch..............................(202) 720-3570 Livestock Section Scott Hollis, Head, Livestock Section..............................(202) 690-2424 Jim Collom - Dairy Products................................(202) 690-3236 Joe Gaynor - Dairy Products Prices.........................(202) 690-2168 Jason Hardegree - Cattle, Cattle on Feed...................(202) 720-3040 Benita Hodge - Livestock Slaughter.........................(515) 284-4340 Everett Olbert - Sheep and Goats...........................(202) 720-4751 Mike Miller - Milk Production and Milk Cows................(202) 720-3278 Nick Streff - Hogs and Pigs................................(202) 720-3106 ACCESS TO REPORTS!! 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