Cattle on Feed ISSN: 1948-9080 Released December 16, 2011, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). United States Cattle on Feed Up 4 Percent Cattle and calves on feed for slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 12.1 million head on December 1, 2011. The inventory was 4 percent above December 1, 2010. This is the second highest December 1 inventory since the series began in 1996. Placements in feedlots during November totaled 2.04 million, 4 percent above 2010. Net placements were 1.94 million head. During November, placements of cattle and calves weighing less than 600 pounds were 755,000, 600-699 pounds were 499,000, 700-799 pounds were 375,000, and 800 pounds and greater were 410,000. Marketings of fed cattle during November totaled 1.77 million, slightly below 2010. Other disappearance totaled 102,000 during November, 65 percent above 2010. Number of Cattle on Feed, Placements, Marketings, and Other Disappearance on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots - United States: December 1, 2010 and 2011 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : Percent of Item :---------------------------: : 2010 : 2011 :previous year -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 head ---- percent : On feed November 1 ..................: 11,497 11,914 104 Placed on feed during November ......: 1,959 2,039 104 Fed cattle marketed during November .: 1,774 1,770 100 Other disappearance during November .: 62 102 165 On feed December 1 ..................: 11,620 12,081 104 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number of Cattle on Feed, Placements, Marketings, and Other Disappearance on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots - United States: November 1, 2010 and 2011 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : Percent of Item :---------------------------: : 2010 : 2011 :previous year ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 head ---- percent : On feed October 1 ......................: 10,788 11,312 105 Placed on feed during October ..........: 2,505 2,496 100 Fed cattle marketed during October .....: 1,734 1,796 104 Other disappearance during October .....: 62 98 158 On feed November 1 .....................: 11,497 11,914 104 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number of Cattle on Feed on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States: 2010 and 2011 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : December 1, 2011 : : :----------------------------------------- State :December 1, 2010 :November 1, 2011 : : Percent of : Percent of : : : Number :previous year :previous month ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -------------- 1,000 head ------------- ----- percent ---- : Arizona ........: 249 292 291 117 100 California .....: 470 495 510 109 103 Colorado .......: 1,090 1,140 1,160 106 102 Idaho ..........: 235 225 235 100 104 Iowa ...........: 630 570 610 97 107 Kansas .........: 2,360 2,400 2,360 100 98 Nebraska .......: 2,460 2,470 2,560 104 104 Oklahoma .......: 380 390 385 101 99 South Dakota ...: 255 240 265 104 110 Texas ..........: 2,840 3,020 3,010 106 100 Washington .....: 214 226 236 110 104 : Other States ...: 437 446 459 105 103 : United States ..: 11,620 11,914 12,081 104 101 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number of Cattle Placed on Feed on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States: 2010 and 2011 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During November 2011 : During : During :-------------------------------------------- State :November 2010 : October 2011 : : Percent of : Percent of : : : Number :previous year :previous month --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 head ----------- ----- percent ---- : Arizona ..........: 22 32 27 123 84 California .......: 69 58 68 99 117 Colorado .........: 155 230 175 113 76 Idaho ............: 52 55 46 88 84 Iowa .............: 114 127 138 121 109 Kansas ...........: 375 440 375 100 85 Nebraska .........: 445 665 480 108 72 Oklahoma .........: 60 86 60 100 70 South Dakota .....: 62 75 70 113 93 Texas ............: 475 570 475 100 83 Washington .......: 54 59 54 100 92 : Other States .....: 76 99 71 93 72 : United States ....: 1,959 2,496 2,039 104 82 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number of Cattle Placed on Feed by Weight Group on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States: 2010 and 2011 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : During November :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State :Under 600 lbs: 600-699 lbs : 700-799 lbs : 800+ lbs : Total :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2010 : 2011 : 2010 : 2011 : 2010 : 2011 : 2010 : 2011 : 2010 : 2011 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : 1,000 head : Colorado .....: 45 55 40 40 30 30 40 50 155 175 Kansas .......: 80 85 105 100 120 120 70 70 375 375 Nebraska .....: 110 130 160 135 65 85 110 130 445 480 Texas ........: 195 275 145 100 85 60 50 40 475 475 : Other States .: 195 210 140 124 74 80 100 120 509 534 : United States : 625 755 590 499 374 375 370 410 1,959 2,039 :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : During October :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State :Under 600 lbs: 600-699 lbs : 700-799 lbs : 800+ lbs : Total :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2010 : 2011 : 2010 : 2011 : 2010 : 2011 : 2010 : 2011 : 2010 : 2011 :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head : Colorado .....: 55 60 55 50 60 50 100 70 270 230 Kansas .......: 90 115 115 120 125 115 105 90 435 440 Nebraska .....: 170 185 160 180 90 110 160 190 580 665 Texas ........: 220 220 190 140 145 130 85 80 640 570 : Other States .: 190 225 120 115 95 101 175 150 580 591 : United States : 725 805 640 605 515 506 625 580 2,505 2,496 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Number of Cattle Marketed on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States: 2010 and 2011 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During November 2011 : During : During :-------------------------------------------- State :November 2010 : October 2011 : : Percent of : Percent of : : : Number :previous year :previous month --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 head ----------- ----- percent ---- : Arizona ..........: 23 19 27 117 142 California .......: 55 48 48 87 100 Colorado .........: 150 155 145 97 94 Idaho ............: 35 48 35 100 73 Iowa .............: 90 125 95 106 76 Kansas ...........: 400 340 395 99 116 Nebraska .........: 395 390 375 95 96 Oklahoma .........: 63 63 61 97 97 South Dakota .....: 36 39 41 114 105 Texas ............: 440 465 450 102 97 Washington .......: 36 40 43 119 108 : Other States .....: 51 64 55 108 86 : United States ....: 1,774 1,796 1,770 100 99 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Other Disappearance on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States: 2010 and 2011 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During November 2011 : During : During :-------------------------------------------- State :November 2010 : October 2011 : : Percent of : Percent of : : : Number :previous year :previous month --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------- 1,000 head ---------- ----- percent ---- : Arizona ..........: 1 1 1 100 100 California .......: 4 5 5 125 100 Colorado .........: 5 5 10 200 200 Idaho ............: 2 2 1 50 50 Iowa .............: 4 2 3 75 150 Kansas ...........: 15 20 20 133 100 Nebraska .........: 10 15 15 150 100 Oklahoma .........: 2 3 4 200 133 South Dakota .....: 1 1 4 400 400 Texas ............: 15 35 35 233 100 Washington .......: 1 1 1 100 100 : Other States .....: 2 8 3 150 38 : United States ....: 62 98 102 165 104 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Terms and Definitions of Cattle on Feed Estimates Cattle on feed are animals being fed a ration of grain, silage, hay and/or protein supplement for slaughter market that are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. It excludes cattle being "backgrounded only" for later sale as feeders or later placement in another feedlot. Placements are cattle put into a feedlot, fed a ration which will produce a carcass that will grade select or better, and are intended for the slaughter market. Marketings are cattle shipped out of feedlots to a slaughter market. Other disappearance includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture, and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Reliability of Cattle on Feed Estimates Survey Procedures: During January and July all known feedlots in the United States with capacity of 1,000 or more head are surveyed to provide data for cattle on feed estimates. During the other months, all known feedlots from 16 States are surveyed. The 16 States account for approximately 98 percent of the cattle on feed in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head. Individual State estimates are published monthly for 11 of the 16 States. Data collected from the remaining 5 States are used to establish the "Other States" estimates. These 5 States include Illinois, Minnesota, New Mexico, Oregon, and Wyoming. The "Other States" category represents all cattle on feed with a capacity of 1,000 or more head for the rest of the United States. Estimating Procedures: These cattle on feed estimates were prepared by the Agricultural Statistics Board after reviewing recommendations and analysis submitted by each State office. Regional and State survey data were reviewed for reasonableness with each other and with estimates from the previous month when establishing the current estimates. Revision Policy: Revisions to previous estimates are made to improve month to month relationships. Estimates for the previous month are subject to revision in all States each month when current estimates are made. In February, all monthly estimates for the previous year, and the number of feedlots and annual marketings from two years ago are reviewed and subject to revisions. The reviews are primarily based on slaughter data, state check-off or brand data, and any other data that may have been received after the original estimate was made. Estimates will also be reviewed after data from the Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions will be made after that date and estimates become final. Reliability: Since all 1,000+ capacity cattle on feed operators in every State are not included in the monthly survey, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the table on the following page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and latest estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for cattle on feed inventory estimates over the past 24 months is 0.1 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 12.1 million head by more than 0.1 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 0.2 percent. The table on the following page shows a 24 month record of the range of differences between first and latest estimates for selected items. Using estimates of number on feed as an example, changes between the first estimate and the latest estimate during the past 24 months have averaged 10,000 head, ranging from 0 to 37,000 head. During this period the initial estimate has been above the latest estimate 11 times and has been below the latest estimate 10 times. This does not imply that the initial estimate is likely to understate or overstate final inventory. Reliability of Monthly Cattle on Feed Estimates [Based on data for the past 24 months] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Root mean : 90 percent : Difference between first and latest estimate : square error : confidence : : : : : : : level :------------------------------------------------------------- Item : : : : : : Months : : : : : :------------------------------- : : : Average :Smallest : Largest : Below latest : Above latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : percent percent -------- 1,000 ------- ----- number ----- : Number on feed ...............: 0.1 0.2 11 0 37 10 11 : Placements ...................: 0.4 0.7 4 0 20 12 7 : Marketings ...................: 0.2 0.3 2 0 10 9 6 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to nass@nass.usda.gov Dan Kerestes, Chief, Livestock Branch ........... (202) 720-3570 Scott Hollis, Head, Livestock Section ........... (202) 690-2424 Travis Averill - Cattle, Cattle on Feed....... (202) 720-3040 Sherry Bertramsen - Livestock Slaughter ...... (515) 284-4340 Doug Bounds - Hogs and Pigs, Goats ........... (202) 720-3106 Mike Miller - Milk Production and Milk Cows .. (202) 720-3278 Everett Olbert - Dairy Products Prices........ (202) 720-4751 Lorie Warren - Dairy Products, Sheep ......... (202) 690-3236 Access to NASS Reports For your convenience, you may access NASS reports and products the following ways: All reports are available electronically, at no cost, on the NASS web site: http://www.nass.usda.gov Both national and state specific reports are available via a free e- mail subscription. 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