Cattle on Feed ISSN: 1948-9080 Released January 20, 2012, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). United States Cattle on Feed Up 3 Percent Cattle and calves on feed for slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.9 million head on January 1, 2012. The inventory was 3 percent above January 1, 2011. The inventory included 7.28 million steers and steer calves, up 1 percent from the previous year. This group accounted for 61 percent of the total inventory. Heifers and heifer calves accounted for 4.50 million head, up 6 percent from 2011. Placements in feedlots during December totaled 1.68 million, 6 percent below 2010. Net placements were 1.59 million head. During December, placements of cattle and calves weighing less than 600 pounds were 550,000, 600-699 pounds were 390,000, 700-799 pounds were 365,000, and 800 pounds and greater were 378,000. Marketings of fed cattle during December totaled 1.80 million, 2 percent below 2010. Other disappearance totaled 91,000 during December, 40 percent above 2010. Number of Cattle on Feed, Placements, Marketings, and Other Disappearance on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots - United States: January 1, 2011 and 2012 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : Percent of Item :---------------------------: : 2011 : 2012 :previous year -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 head ---- percent : On feed December 1 ..................: 11,620 12,065 104 Placed on feed during December ......: 1,789 1,683 94 Fed cattle marketed during December .: 1,830 1,796 98 Other disappearance during December .: 65 91 140 On feed January 1 ...................: 11,514 11,861 103 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number of Cattle on Feed, Placements, Marketings, and Other Disappearance on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots - United States: December 1, 2010 and 2011 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : Percent of Item :---------------------------: : 2010 : 2011 :previous year ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 head ---- percent : On feed November 1 .....................: 11,497 11,914 104 Placed on feed during November .........: 1,959 2,035 104 Fed cattle marketed during November ....: 1,774 1,782 100 Other disappearance during November ....: 62 102 165 On feed December 1 .....................: 11,620 12,065 104 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number on Feed by Class on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots - United States: January 1, 2011 and 2012 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : Percent of Item :---------------------------: : 2011 : 2012 :previous year -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 Head --- percent : Class on Feed January 1 : Steers and Steer Calves ...........: 7,178 7,281 101 Heifers and Heifer Calves .........: 4,259 4,496 106 Cows and Bulls ....................: 77 84 109 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number of Cattle on Feed on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States: 2011 and 2012 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : January 1, 2012 : : :----------------------------------------- State : January 1, 2011 :December 1, 2011 : : Percent of : Percent of : : : Number :previous year :previous month ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -------------- 1,000 head ------------- ----- percent ---- : Arizona ........: 258 290 279 108 96 California .....: 470 505 510 109 101 Colorado .......: 1,080 1,160 1,150 106 99 Idaho ..........: 240 235 230 96 98 Iowa ...........: 640 610 620 97 102 Kansas .........: 2,280 2,360 2,250 99 95 Nebraska .......: 2,430 2,560 2,550 105 100 Oklahoma .......: 375 385 375 100 97 South Dakota ...: 260 265 260 100 98 Texas ..........: 2,840 3,000 2,940 104 98 Washington .....: 209 236 232 111 98 : Other States ...: 432 459 465 108 101 : United States ..: 11,514 12,065 11,861 103 98 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number of Cattle Placed on Feed on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States: 2010 and 2011 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During December 2011 : During : During :-------------------------------------------- State :December 2010 :November 2011 : : Percent of : Percent of : : : Number :previous year :previous month --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 head ----------- ----- percent ---- : Arizona ..........: 36 27 26 72 96 California .......: 61 64 61 100 95 Colorado .........: 160 175 170 106 97 Idaho ............: 42 46 36 86 78 Iowa .............: 93 143 77 83 54 Kansas ...........: 410 375 350 85 93 Nebraska .........: 380 480 380 100 79 Oklahoma .........: 55 60 45 82 75 South Dakota .....: 45 70 37 82 53 Texas ............: 420 470 400 95 85 Washington .......: 36 54 44 122 81 : Other States .....: 51 71 57 112 80 : United States ....: 1,789 2,035 1,683 94 83 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number of Cattle Placed on Feed by Weight Group on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States: 2010 and 2011 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : During December :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State :Under 600 lbs: 600-699 lbs : 700-799 lbs : 800+ lbs : Total :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2010 : 2011 : 2010 : 2011 : 2010 : 2011 : 2010 : 2011 : 2010 : 2011 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : 1,000 head : Colorado .....: 30 50 50 40 40 35 40 45 160 170 Kansas .......: 75 75 115 100 130 105 90 70 410 350 Nebraska .....: 55 60 110 90 105 100 110 130 380 380 Texas ........: 180 225 120 75 80 55 40 45 420 400 : Other States .: 135 140 100 85 84 70 100 88 419 383 : United States : 475 550 495 390 439 365 380 378 1,789 1,683 :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : During November :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State :Under 600 lbs: 600-699 lbs : 700-799 lbs : 800+ lbs : Total :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2010 : 2011 : 2010 : 2011 : 2010 : 2011 : 2010 : 2011 : 2010 : 2011 :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head : Colorado .....: 45 55 40 40 30 30 40 50 155 175 Kansas .......: 80 85 105 100 120 120 70 70 375 375 Nebraska .....: 110 130 160 135 65 85 110 130 445 480 Texas ........: 195 270 145 100 85 60 50 40 475 470 : Other States .: 195 210 140 125 74 80 100 120 509 535 : United States : 625 750 590 500 374 375 370 410 1,959 2,035 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Number of Cattle Marketed on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States: 2010 and 2011 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During December 2011 : During : During :-------------------------------------------- State :December 2010 :November 2011 : : Percent of : Percent of : : : Number :previous year :previous month --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 head ----------- ----- percent ---- : Arizona ..........: 26 28 36 138 129 California .......: 57 49 52 91 106 Colorado .........: 165 145 170 103 117 Idaho ............: 35 35 40 114 114 Iowa .............: 80 100 63 79 63 Kansas ...........: 480 395 445 93 113 Nebraska .........: 400 375 380 95 101 Oklahoma .........: 58 61 52 90 85 South Dakota .....: 39 41 37 95 90 Texas ............: 400 455 430 108 95 Washington .......: 39 43 45 115 105 : Other States .....: 51 55 46 90 84 : United States ....: 1,830 1,782 1,796 98 101 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Other Disappearance on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States: 2010 and 2011 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During December 2011 : During : During :-------------------------------------------- State :December 2010 :November 2011 : : Percent of : Percent of : : : Number :previous year :previous month --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------- 1,000 head ---------- ----- percent ---- : Arizona ..........: 1 1 1 100 100 California .......: 4 5 4 100 80 Colorado .........: 5 10 10 200 100 Idaho ............: 2 1 1 50 100 Iowa .............: 3 3 4 133 133 Kansas ...........: 10 20 15 150 75 Nebraska .........: 10 15 10 100 67 Oklahoma .........: 2 4 3 150 75 South Dakota .....: 1 4 5 500 125 Texas ............: 20 35 30 150 86 Washington .......: 2 1 3 150 300 : Other States .....: 5 3 5 100 167 : United States ....: 65 102 91 140 89 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number on Feed by Class on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Quarter - States and United States: 2011 and 2012 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Steers and steer calves :Heifers and heifer calves : Cows and bulls :----------------------------------------------------------------------------- State : Jan 1, : Oct 1, : Jan 1, : Jan 1, : Oct 1, : Jan 1, :Jan 1, :Oct 1, :Jan 1, : 2011 : 2011 : 2012 : 2011 : 2011 : 2012 : 2011 : 2011 : 2012 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head : Arizona ......: 255 277 276 3 3 3 0 0 0 California ...: 405 425 440 65 63 69 0 2 1 Colorado .....: 710 730 745 365 335 400 5 5 5 Idaho ........: 116 136 123 108 82 106 16 2 1 Iowa .........: 440 390 450 199 179 170 1 1 0 Kansas .......: 1,220 1,220 1,160 1,055 1,090 1,085 5 10 5 Nebraska .....: 1,520 1,290 1,530 895 905 980 15 15 40 Oklahoma .....: 210 205 215 165 165 160 0 0 0 South Dakota .: 129 114 131 107 81 101 24 10 28 Texas ........: 1,750 1,750 1,730 1,089 1,199 1,209 1 1 1 Washington ...: 130 123 150 71 83 80 8 2 2 : Other States .: 293 285 331 137 133 133 2 1 1 : United States : 7,178 6,945 7,281 4,259 4,318 4,496 77 49 84 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Terms and Definitions of Cattle on Feed Estimates Cattle on feed are animals being fed a ration of grain, silage, hay and/or protein supplement for slaughter market that are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. It excludes cattle being "backgrounded only" for later sale as feeders or later placement in another feedlot. Placements are cattle put into a feedlot, fed a ration which will produce a carcass that will grade select or better, and are intended for the slaughter market. Marketings are cattle shipped out of feedlots to a slaughter market. Other disappearance includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture, and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Reliability of Cattle on Feed Estimates Survey Procedures: During January and July all known feedlots in the United States with capacity of 1,000 or more head are surveyed to provide data for cattle on feed estimates. During the other months, all known feedlots from 16 States are surveyed. The 16 States account for approximately 98 percent of the cattle on feed in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head. Individual State estimates are published monthly for 11 of the 16 States. Data collected from the remaining 5 States are used to establish the "Other States" estimates. These 5 States include Illinois, Minnesota, New Mexico, Oregon, and Wyoming. The "Other States" category represents all cattle on feed with a capacity of 1,000 or more head for the rest of the United States. Estimating Procedures: These cattle on feed estimates were prepared by the Agricultural Statistics Board after reviewing recommendations and analysis submitted by each State office. Regional and State survey data were reviewed for reasonableness with each other and with estimates from the previous month when establishing the current estimates. Revision Policy: Revisions to previous estimates are made to improve month to month relationships. Estimates for the previous month are subject to revision in all States each month when current estimates are made. In February, all monthly estimates for the previous year, and the number of feedlots and annual marketings from two years ago are reviewed and subject to revisions. The reviews are primarily based on slaughter data, state check-off or brand data, and any other data that may have been received after the original estimate was made. Estimates will also be reviewed after data from the Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions will be made after that date and estimates become final. Reliability: Since all 1,000+ capacity cattle on feed operators in every State are not included in the monthly survey, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the table on the following page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and latest estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for cattle on feed inventory estimates over the past 24 months is 0.1 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 11.9 million head by more than 0.1 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 0.2 percent. The table on the following page shows a 24 month record of the range of differences between first and latest estimates for selected items. Using estimates of number on feed as an example, changes between the first estimate and the latest estimate during the past 24 months have averaged 10,000 head, ranging from 0 to 37,000 head. During this period the initial estimate has been above the latest estimate 11 times and has been below the latest estimate 10 times. This does not imply that the initial estimate is likely to understate or overstate final inventory. Reliability of Monthly Cattle on Feed Estimates [Based on data for the past 24 months] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Root mean : 90 percent : Difference between first and latest estimate : square error : confidence : : : : : : : level :------------------------------------------------------------- Item : : : : : : Months : : : : : :------------------------------- : : : Average :Smallest : Largest : Below latest : Above latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : percent percent -------- 1,000 ------- ----- number ----- : Number on feed ...............: 0.1 0.2 11 0 37 10 11 : Placements ...................: 0.4 0.7 4 0 20 12 7 : Marketings ...................: 0.2 0.4 2 0 12 9 6 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to nass@nass.usda.gov Dan Kerestes, Chief, Livestock Branch ........... (202) 720-3570 Scott Hollis, Head, Livestock Section ........... (202) 690-2424 Travis Averill - Cattle, Cattle on Feed....... (202) 720-3040 Sherry Bertramsen - Livestock Slaughter ...... (515) 284-4340 Doug Bounds - Hogs and Pigs, Goats ........... (202) 720-3106 Mike Miller - Milk Production and Milk Cows .. (202) 720-3278 Everett Olbert - Dairy Products Prices........ (202) 720-4751 Lorie Warren - Dairy Products, Sheep ......... (202) 690-3236 Access to NASS Reports For your convenience, you may access NASS reports and products the following ways: All reports are available electronically, at no cost, on the NASS web site: http://www.nass.usda.gov Both national and state specific reports are available via a free e- mail subscription. 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