Cattle on Feed ISSN: 1948-9080 Released March 23, 2012, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). United States Cattle on Feed Up 3 Percent Cattle and calves on feed for slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.7 million head on March 1, 2012. The inventory was 3 percent above March 1, 2011. Placements in feedlots during February totaled 1.71 million, 3 percent above 2011. Net placements were 1.62 million head. During February, placements of cattle and calves weighing less than 600 pounds were 400,000, 600-699 pounds were 335,000, 700-799 pounds were 469,000, and 800 pounds and greater were 510,000. Marketings of fed cattle during February totaled 1.76 million, 2 percent below 2011. Other disappearance totaled 93,000 during February, 52 percent above 2011. Number of Cattle on Feed, Placements, Marketings, and Other Disappearance on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots - United States: March 1, 2011 and 2012 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : Percent of Item :---------------------------: : 2011 : 2012 :previous year -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 head ---- percent : On feed February 1 ..................: 11,571 11,811 102 Placed on feed during February ......: 1,667 1,714 103 Fed cattle marketed during February .: 1,791 1,755 98 Other disappearance during February .: 61 93 152 On feed March 1 .....................: 11,386 11,677 103 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number of Cattle on Feed, Placements, Marketings, and Other Disappearance on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots - United States: February 1, 2011 and 2012 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : Percent of Item :---------------------------: : 2011 : 2012 :previous year ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 head ---- percent : On feed January 1 ......................: 11,513 11,861 103 Placed on feed during January ..........: 1,889 1,847 98 Fed cattle marketed during January .....: 1,774 1,816 102 Other disappearance during January .....: 57 81 142 On feed February 1 .....................: 11,571 11,811 102 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number of Cattle on Feed on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States: 2011 and 2012 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : March 1, 2012 : : :----------------------------------------- State : March 1, 2011 :February 1, 2012 : : Percent of : Percent of : : : Number :previous year :previous month ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -------------- 1,000 head ------------- ----- percent ---- : Arizona ........: 269 276 279 104 101 California .....: 460 505 500 109 99 Colorado .......: 1,070 1,140 1,090 102 96 Idaho ..........: 220 235 230 105 98 Iowa ...........: 650 650 670 103 103 Kansas .........: 2,220 2,230 2,200 99 99 Nebraska .......: 2,430 2,570 2,570 106 100 Oklahoma .......: 360 355 340 94 96 South Dakota ...: 265 260 260 98 100 Texas ..........: 2,830 2,900 2,840 100 98 Washington .....: 205 227 233 114 103 : Other States ...: 407 463 465 114 100 : United States ..: 11,386 11,811 11,677 103 99 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number of Cattle Placed on Feed on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States: 2011 and 2012 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During February 2012 : During : During :-------------------------------------------- State :February 2011 : January 2012 : : Percent of : Percent of : : : Number :previous year :previous month --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 head ----------- ----- percent ---- : Arizona ..........: 29 28 25 86 89 California .......: 43 55 50 116 91 Colorado .........: 215 190 165 77 87 Idaho ............: 31 47 37 119 79 Iowa .............: 71 103 85 120 83 Kansas ...........: 365 410 370 101 90 Nebraska .........: 350 430 410 117 95 Oklahoma .........: 60 50 48 80 96 South Dakota .....: 45 45 47 104 104 Texas ............: 380 400 380 100 95 Washington .......: 31 35 41 132 117 : Other States .....: 47 54 56 119 104 : United States ....: 1,667 1,847 1,714 103 93 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number of Cattle Placed on Feed by Weight Group on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States: 2011 and 2012 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : During February :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State :Under 600 lbs: 600-699 lbs : 700-799 lbs : 800+ lbs : Total :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2011 : 2012 : 2011 : 2012 : 2011 : 2012 : 2011 : 2012 : 2011 : 2012 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : 1,000 head : Colorado .....: 30 30 45 30 65 40 75 65 215 165 Kansas .......: 55 70 80 75 150 130 80 95 365 370 Nebraska .....: 60 60 85 70 100 110 105 170 350 410 Texas ........: 160 145 85 85 85 95 50 55 380 380 : Other States .: 95 95 70 75 92 94 100 125 357 389 : United States : 400 400 365 335 492 469 410 510 1,667 1,714 :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : During January :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State :Under 600 lbs: 600-699 lbs : 700-799 lbs : 800+ lbs : Total :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2011 : 2012 : 2011 : 2012 : 2011 : 2012 : 2011 : 2012 : 2011 : 2012 :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head : Colorado .....: 25 30 50 50 65 60 45 50 185 190 Kansas .......: 55 70 120 100 165 155 95 85 435 410 Nebraska .....: 70 60 105 110 130 120 125 140 430 430 Texas ........: 160 150 115 85 100 105 55 60 430 400 : Other States .: 150 135 85 85 84 85 90 112 409 417 : United States : 460 445 475 430 544 525 410 447 1,889 1,847 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Number of Cattle Marketed on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States: 2011 and 2012 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During February 2012 : During : During :-------------------------------------------- State :February 2011 : January 2012 : : Percent of : Percent of : : : Number :previous year :previous month --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 head ----------- ----- percent ---- : Arizona ..........: 25 30 21 84 70 California .......: 50 57 53 106 93 Colorado .........: 210 190 200 95 105 Idaho ............: 40 41 41 103 100 Iowa .............: 79 70 62 78 89 Kansas ...........: 405 415 385 95 93 Nebraska .........: 365 395 390 107 99 Oklahoma .........: 73 68 61 84 90 South Dakota .....: 48 44 45 94 102 Texas ............: 405 415 415 102 100 Washington .......: 30 39 32 107 82 : Other States .....: 61 52 50 82 96 : United States ....: 1,791 1,816 1,755 98 97 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Other Disappearance on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States: 2011 and 2012 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During February 2012 : During : During :-------------------------------------------- State :February 2011 : January 2012 : : Percent of : Percent of : : : Number :previous year :previous month --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------- 1,000 head ---------- ----- percent ---- : Arizona ..........: 1 1 1 100 100 California .......: 3 3 2 67 67 Colorado .........: 5 10 15 300 150 Idaho ............: 1 1 1 100 100 Iowa .............: 2 3 3 150 100 Kansas ...........: 10 15 15 150 100 Nebraska .........: 15 15 20 133 133 Oklahoma .........: 2 2 2 100 100 South Dakota .....: 2 1 2 100 200 Texas ............: 15 25 25 167 100 Washington .......: 3 1 3 100 300 : Other States .....: 2 4 4 200 100 : United States ....: 61 81 93 152 115 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Terms and Definitions of Cattle on Feed Estimates Cattle on feed are animals being fed a ration of grain, silage, hay and/or protein supplement for slaughter market that are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. It excludes cattle being "backgrounded only" for later sale as feeders or later placement in another feedlot. Placements are cattle put into a feedlot, fed a ration which will produce a carcass that will grade select or better, and are intended for the slaughter market. Marketings are cattle shipped out of feedlots to a slaughter market. Other disappearance includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture, and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Reliability of Cattle on Feed Estimates Survey Procedures: During January and July all known feedlots in the United States with capacity of 1,000 or more head are surveyed to provide data for cattle on feed estimates. During the other months, all known feedlots from 16 States are surveyed. The 16 States account for approximately 98 percent of the cattle on feed in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head. Individual State estimates are published monthly for 11 of the 16 States. Data collected from the remaining 5 States are used to establish the "Other States" estimates. These 5 States include Illinois, Minnesota, New Mexico, Oregon, and Wyoming. The "Other States" category represents all cattle on feed with a capacity of 1,000 or more head for the rest of the United States. Estimating Procedures: These cattle on feed estimates were prepared by the Agricultural Statistics Board after reviewing recommendations and analysis submitted by each State office. Regional and State survey data were reviewed for reasonableness with each other and with estimates from the previous month when establishing the current estimates. Revision Policy: Revisions to previous estimates are made to improve month to month relationships. Estimates for the previous month are subject to revision in all States each month when current estimates are made. In February, all monthly estimates for the previous year, and the number of feedlots and annual marketings from two years ago are reviewed and subject to revisions. The reviews are primarily based on slaughter data, state check-off or brand data, and any other data that may have been received after the original estimate was made. Estimates will also be reviewed after data from the Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions will be made after that date and estimates become final. Reliability: Since all 1,000+ capacity cattle on feed operators in every State are not included in the monthly survey, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the table on the following page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and latest estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for cattle on feed inventory estimates over the past 24 months is 0.2 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 11.7 million head by more than 0.1 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 0.3 percent. The table on the following page shows a 24 month record of the range of differences between first and latest estimates for selected items. Using estimates of number on feed as an example, changes between the first estimate and the latest estimate during the past 24 months have averaged 16,000 head, ranging from 0 to 47,000 head. During this period the initial estimate has been above the latest estimate 15 times and has been below the latest estimate 7 times. This does not imply that the initial estimate is likely to understate or overstate final inventory. Reliability of Monthly Cattle on Feed Estimates [Based on data for the past 24 months] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Root mean : 90 percent : Difference between first and latest estimate : square error : confidence : : : : : : : level :------------------------------------------------------------- Item : : : : : : Months : : : : : :------------------------------- : : : Average :Smallest : Largest : Below latest : Above latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : percent percent -------- 1,000 ------- ----- number ----- : Number on feed ...............: 0.2 0.3 16 0 47 7 15 : Placements ...................: 0.3 0.6 4 0 18 10 9 : Marketings ...................: 0.3 0.5 3 0 20 8 7 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to nass@nass.usda.gov Dan Kerestes, Chief, Livestock Branch ........... (202) 720-3570 Scott Hollis, Head, Livestock Section ........... (202) 690-2424 Travis Averill - Cattle, Cattle on Feed ...... (202) 720-3040 Sherry Bertramsen - Livestock Slaughter ...... (515) 284-4340 Doug Bounds - Hogs and Pigs, Goats ........... (202) 720-3106 Mike Miller - Milk Production and Milk Cows .. (202) 720-3278 Everett Olbert - Dairy Products Prices ....... (202) 720-4751 Lorie Warren - Dairy Products, Sheep ......... (202) 690-3236 Access to NASS Reports For your convenience, you may access NASS reports and products the following ways: All reports are available electronically, at no cost, on the NASS web site: http://www.nass.usda.gov Both national and state specific reports are available via a free e- mail subscription. 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