Cattle on Feed ISSN: 1948-9080 Released August 17, 2012, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). United States Cattle on Feed Up 1 Percent Cattle and calves on feed for slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 10.7 million head on August 1, 2012. The inventory was 1 percent above August 1, 2011. Placements in feedlots during July totaled 1.92 million, 10 percent below 2011. Net placements were 1.86 million head. During July, placements of cattle and calves weighing less than 600 pounds were 500,000, 600-699 pounds were 325,000, 700-799 pounds were 470,000, and 800 pounds and greater were 627,000. Marketings of fed cattle during July totaled 1.91 million, slightly below 2011. Other disappearance totaled 63,000 during July, 11 percent below 2011. Number of Cattle on Feed, Placements, Marketings, and Other Disappearance on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots - United States: August 1, 2011 and 2012 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : Percent of Item :---------------------------: : 2011 : 2012 :previous year -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 head ---- percent : On feed July 1 ......................: 10,433 10,710 103 Placed on feed during July ..........: 2,135 1,922 90 Fed cattle marketed during July .....: 1,918 1,913 100 Other disappearance during July .....: 71 63 89 On feed August 1 ....................: 10,579 10,656 101 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number of Cattle on Feed, Placements, Marketings, and Other Disappearance on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots - United States: July 1, 2011 and 2012 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : Percent of Item :---------------------------: : 2011 : 2012 :previous year ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 head ---- percent : On feed June 1 .........................: 10,902 11,077 102 Placed on feed during June .............: 1,695 1,664 98 Fed cattle marketed during June ........: 2,092 1,965 94 Other disappearance during June ........: 72 66 92 On feed July 1 .........................: 10,433 10,710 103 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number of Cattle on Feed on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States: 2011 and 2012 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : August 1, 2012 : : :----------------------------------------- State : August 1, 2011 : July 1, 2012 : : Percent of : Percent of : : : Number :previous year :previous month ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -------------- 1,000 head ------------- ----- percent ---- : Arizona ........: 287 279 274 95 98 California .....: 480 480 475 99 99 Colorado .......: 970 970 940 97 97 Idaho ..........: 195 200 190 97 95 Iowa ...........: 550 620 600 109 97 Kansas .........: 2,180 2,050 2,160 99 105 Nebraska .......: 1,980 2,270 2,230 113 98 Oklahoma .......: 360 320 320 89 100 South Dakota ...: 195 210 190 97 90 Texas ..........: 2,830 2,670 2,650 94 99 Washington .....: 190 210 210 111 100 : Other States ...: 362 431 417 115 97 : United States ..: 10,579 10,710 10,656 101 99 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number of Cattle Placed on Feed on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States: 2011 and 2012 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During July 2012 : During : During :-------------------------------------------- State : July 2011 : June 2012 : : Percent of : Percent of : : : Number :previous year :previous month --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 head ----------- ----- percent ---- : Arizona ..........: 24 28 22 92 79 California .......: 62 49 52 84 106 Colorado .........: 170 125 155 91 124 Idaho ............: 24 34 35 146 103 Iowa .............: 55 61 52 95 85 Kansas ...........: 580 390 540 93 138 Nebraska .........: 390 385 410 105 106 Oklahoma .........: 86 53 68 79 128 South Dakota .....: 22 28 20 91 71 Texas ............: 630 420 475 75 113 Washington .......: 42 36 40 95 111 : Other States .....: 50 55 53 106 96 : United States ....: 2,135 1,664 1,922 90 116 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number of Cattle Placed on Feed by Weight Group on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States: 2011 and 2012 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : During July :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State :Under 600 lbs: 600-699 lbs : 700-799 lbs : 800+ lbs : Total :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2011 : 2012 : 2011 : 2012 : 2011 : 2012 : 2011 : 2012 : 2011 : 2012 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : 1,000 head : Colorado .....: 45 25 25 20 40 40 60 70 170 155 Kansas .......: 95 85 115 105 190 180 180 170 580 540 Nebraska .....: 60 70 70 70 100 90 160 180 390 410 Texas ........: 300 225 140 85 95 100 95 65 630 475 : Other States .: 120 95 50 45 70 60 125 142 365 342 : United States : 620 500 400 325 495 470 620 627 2,135 1,922 :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : During June :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State :Under 600 lbs: 600-699 lbs : 700-799 lbs : 800+ lbs : Total :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2011 : 2012 : 2011 : 2012 : 2011 : 2012 : 2011 : 2012 : 2011 : 2012 :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head : Colorado .....: 20 25 25 20 30 40 30 40 105 125 Kansas .......: 75 95 95 80 120 110 100 105 390 390 Nebraska .....: 50 70 60 70 70 90 130 155 310 385 Texas ........: 210 180 130 100 120 75 40 65 500 420 : Other States .: 105 90 70 50 80 75 135 129 390 344 : United States : 460 460 380 320 420 390 435 494 1,695 1,664 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Number of Cattle Marketed on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States: 2011 and 2012 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During July 2012 : During : During :-------------------------------------------- State : July 2011 : June 2012 : : Percent of : Percent of : : : Number :previous year :previous month --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 head ----------- ----- percent ---- : Arizona ..........: 23 30 26 113 87 California .......: 48 56 54 113 96 Colorado .........: 195 170 180 92 106 Idaho ............: 41 43 44 107 102 Iowa .............: 93 77 70 75 91 Kansas ...........: 420 415 415 99 100 Nebraska .........: 415 465 440 106 95 Oklahoma .........: 74 51 66 89 129 South Dakota .....: 35 47 39 111 83 Texas ............: 470 500 475 101 95 Washington .......: 41 45 39 95 87 : Other States .....: 63 66 65 103 98 : United States ....: 1,918 1,965 1,913 100 97 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Other Disappearance on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States: 2011 and 2012 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During July 2012 : During : During :-------------------------------------------- State : July 2011 : June 2012 : : Percent of : Percent of : : : Number :previous year :previous month --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------- 1,000 head ---------- ----- percent ---- : Arizona ..........: 1 1 1 100 100 California .......: 4 3 3 75 100 Colorado .........: 5 5 5 100 100 Idaho ............: 3 1 1 33 100 Iowa .............: 2 4 2 100 50 Kansas ...........: 10 15 15 150 100 Nebraska .........: 15 10 10 67 100 Oklahoma .........: 2 2 2 100 100 South Dakota .....: 2 1 1 50 100 Texas ............: 20 20 20 100 100 Washington .......: 3 1 1 33 100 : Other States .....: 4 3 2 50 67 : United States ....: 71 66 63 89 95 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Terms and Definitions of Cattle on Feed Estimates Cattle on feed are animals being fed a ration of grain, silage, hay and/or protein supplement for slaughter market that are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. It excludes cattle being "backgrounded only" for later sale as feeders or later placement in another feedlot. Placements are cattle put into a feedlot, fed a ration which will produce a carcass that will grade select or better, and are intended for the slaughter market. Marketings are cattle shipped out of feedlots to a slaughter market. Other disappearance includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture, and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Reliability of Cattle on Feed Estimates Survey Procedures: During January and July all known feedlots in the United States with capacity of 1,000 or more head are surveyed to provide data for cattle on feed estimates. During the other months, all known feedlots from 16 States are surveyed. The 16 States account for approximately 98 percent of the cattle on feed in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head. Individual State estimates are published monthly for 11 of the 16 States. Data collected from the remaining 5 States are used to establish the "Other States" estimates. These 5 States include Illinois, Minnesota, New Mexico, Oregon, and Wyoming. The "Other States" category represents all cattle on feed with a capacity of 1,000 or more head for the rest of the United States. Estimating Procedures: These cattle on feed estimates were prepared by the Agricultural Statistics Board after reviewing recommendations and analysis submitted by each State office. Regional and State survey data were reviewed for reasonableness with each other and with estimates from the previous month when establishing the current estimates. Revision Policy: Revisions to previous estimates are made to improve month to month relationships. Estimates for the previous month are subject to revision in all States each month when current estimates are made. In February, all monthly estimates for the previous year, and the number of feedlots and annual marketings from two years ago are reviewed and subject to revisions. The reviews are primarily based on slaughter data, state check-off or brand data, and any other data that may have been received after the original estimate was made. Estimates will also be reviewed after data from the Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions will be made after that date and estimates become final. Reliability: Since all 1,000+ capacity cattle on feed operators in every State are not included in the monthly survey, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the table on the following page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and latest estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for cattle on feed inventory estimates over the past 24 months is 0.2 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 10.7 million head by more than 0.1 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 0.3 percent. The table on the following page shows a 24 month record of the range of differences between first and latest estimates for selected items. Using estimates of number on feed as an example, changes between the first estimate and the latest estimate during the past 24 months have averaged 13,000 head, ranging from 0 to 47,000 head. During this period the initial estimate has been above the latest estimate 13 times and has been below the latest estimate 5 times. This does not imply that the initial estimate is likely to understate or overstate final inventory. Reliability of Monthly Cattle on Feed Estimates [[Based on data for the past 24 months]] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Root mean : 90 percent : Difference between first and latest estimate : square error : confidence : : : : : : : level :------------------------------------------------------------- Item : : : : : : Months : : : : : :------------------------------- : : : Average :Smallest : Largest : Below latest : Above latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : percent percent -------- 1,000 ------- ----- number ---- : Number on feed ...............: 0.2 0.3 13 0 47 5 13 : Placements ...................: 0.3 0.5 3 0 18 7 9 : Marketings ...................: 0.3 0.5 3 0 20 7 5 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to nass@nass.usda.gov Dan Kerestes, Chief, Livestock Branch ........... (202) 720-3570 Scott Hollis, Head, Livestock Section ........... (202) 690-2424 Travis Averill - Cattle, Cattle on Feed ...... (202) 720-3040 Sherry Bertramsen - Livestock Slaughter ...... (515) 284-4340 Doug Bounds - Hogs and Pigs .................. (202) 720-3106 Donnie Fike - Dairy Products ................. (202) 690-3236 Mike Miller - Milk Production and Milk Cows .. (202) 720-3278 Alissa Cowell-Mytar - Sheep and Goats ........ (202) 720-4751 Access to NASS Reports For your convenience, you may access NASS reports and products the following ways: All reports are available electronically, at no cost, on the NASS web site: http://www.nass.usda.gov Both national and state specific reports are available via a free e- mail subscription. 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