Cattle on Feed ISSN: 1948-9080 Released September 21, 2012, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). United States Cattle on Feed Down 1 Percent Cattle and calves on feed for slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 10.6 million head on September 1, 2012. The inventory was 1 percent below September 1, 2011. Placements in feedlots during August totaled 2.00 million, 11 percent below 2011. This is the second lowest cattle placements for the month of August since the series began in 1996. Net placements were 1.94 million head. During August, placements of cattle and calves weighing less than 600 pounds were 482,000, 600-699 pounds were 385,000, 700-799 pounds were 475,000, and 800 pounds and greater were 660,000. Marketings of fed cattle during August totaled 1.96 million, 5 percent below 2011. Other disappearance totaled 61,000 during August, 15 percent below 2011. Number of Cattle on Feed, Placements, Marketings, and Other Disappearance on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots - United States: September 1, 2011 and 2012 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : Percent of Item :---------------------------: : 2011 : 2012 :previous year ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 head ---- percent : On feed August 1 .......................: 10,579 10,656 101 Placed on feed during August ...........: 2,246 2,002 89 Fed cattle marketed during August ......: 2,053 1,960 95 Other disappearance during August ......: 72 61 85 On feed September 1 ....................: 10,700 10,637 99 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number of Cattle on Feed, Placements, Marketings, and Other Disappearance on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots - United States: August 1, 2011 and 2012 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : Percent of Item :---------------------------: : 2011 : 2012 :previous year ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 head ---- percent : On feed July 1 .........................: 10,433 10,710 103 Placed on feed during July .............: 2,135 1,922 90 Fed cattle marketed during July ........: 1,918 1,913 100 Other disappearance during July ........: 71 63 89 On feed August 1 .......................: 10,579 10,656 101 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number of Cattle on Feed on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States: 2011 and 2012 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : September 1, 2012 : : :----------------------------------------- State :September 1, 2011: August 1, 2012 : : Percent of : Percent of : : : Number :previous year :previous month ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -------------- 1,000 head ------------- ----- percent ---- : Arizona ........: 283 274 271 96 99 California .....: 475 475 480 101 101 Colorado .......: 990 940 930 94 99 Idaho ..........: 195 190 205 105 108 Iowa ...........: 530 600 590 111 98 Kansas .........: 2,210 2,160 2,170 98 100 Nebraska .......: 2,010 2,230 2,240 111 100 Oklahoma .......: 365 320 325 89 102 South Dakota ...: 190 190 185 97 97 Texas ..........: 2,890 2,650 2,620 91 99 Washington .....: 193 210 208 108 99 : Other States ...: 369 417 413 112 99 : United States ..: 10,700 10,656 10,637 99 100 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number of Cattle Placed on Feed on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States: 2011 and 2012 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During August 2012 : During : During :-------------------------------------------- State : August 2011 : July 2012 : : Percent of : Percent of : : : Number :previous year :previous month --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 head ----------- ----- percent ---- : Arizona ..........: 19 22 18 95 82 California .......: 56 52 63 113 121 Colorado .........: 230 155 190 83 123 Idaho ............: 43 35 53 123 151 Iowa .............: 77 52 76 99 146 Kansas ...........: 520 540 430 83 80 Nebraska .........: 445 410 470 106 115 Oklahoma .........: 75 68 67 89 99 South Dakota .....: 45 20 34 76 170 Texas ............: 620 475 495 80 104 Washington .......: 48 40 47 98 118 : Other States .....: 68 53 59 87 111 : United States ....: 2,246 1,922 2,002 89 104 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number of Cattle Placed on Feed by Weight Group on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States: 2011 and 2012 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : During August :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State :Under 600 lbs: 600-699 lbs : 700-799 lbs : 800+ lbs : Total :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2011 : 2012 : 2011 : 2012 : 2011 : 2012 : 2011 : 2012 : 2011 : 2012 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : 1,000 head : Colorado .....: 45 30 30 25 45 50 110 85 230 190 Kansas .......: 105 80 105 105 165 120 145 125 520 430 Nebraska .....: 90 70 65 75 100 120 190 205 445 470 Texas ........: 365 200 115 120 85 110 55 65 620 495 : Other States .: 110 102 50 60 81 75 190 180 431 417 : United States : 715 482 365 385 476 475 690 660 2,246 2,002 :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : During July :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State :Under 600 lbs: 600-699 lbs : 700-799 lbs : 800+ lbs : Total :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2011 : 2012 : 2011 : 2012 : 2011 : 2012 : 2011 : 2012 : 2011 : 2012 :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head : Colorado .....: 45 25 25 20 40 40 60 70 170 155 Kansas .......: 95 85 115 105 190 180 180 170 580 540 Nebraska .....: 60 70 70 70 100 90 160 180 390 410 Texas ........: 300 225 140 85 95 100 95 65 630 475 : Other States .: 120 95 50 45 70 60 125 142 365 342 : United States : 620 500 400 325 495 470 620 627 2,135 1,922 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Number of Cattle Marketed on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States: 2011 and 2012 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During August 2012 : During : During :-------------------------------------------- State : August 2011 : July 2012 : : Percent of : Percent of : : : Number :previous year :previous month --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 head ----------- ----- percent ---- : Arizona ..........: 22 26 20 91 77 California .......: 56 54 55 98 102 Colorado .........: 205 180 195 95 108 Idaho ............: 42 44 37 88 84 Iowa .............: 95 70 84 88 120 Kansas ...........: 475 415 410 86 99 Nebraska .........: 400 440 445 111 101 Oklahoma .........: 67 66 60 90 91 South Dakota .....: 48 39 38 79 97 Texas ............: 540 475 510 94 107 Washington .......: 44 39 48 109 123 : Other States .....: 59 65 58 98 89 : United States ....: 2,053 1,913 1,960 95 102 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Other Disappearance on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States: 2011 and 2012 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During August 2012 : During : During :-------------------------------------------- State : August 2011 : July 2012 : : Percent of : Percent of : : : Number :previous year :previous month --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------- 1,000 head ---------- ----- percent ---- : Arizona ..........: 1 1 1 100 100 California .......: 5 3 3 60 100 Colorado .........: 5 5 5 100 100 Idaho ............: 1 1 1 100 100 Iowa .............: 2 2 2 100 100 Kansas ...........: 15 15 10 67 67 Nebraska .........: 15 10 15 100 150 Oklahoma .........: 3 2 2 67 100 South Dakota .....: 2 1 1 50 100 Texas ............: 20 20 15 75 75 Washington .......: 1 1 1 100 100 : Other States .....: 2 2 5 250 250 : United States ....: 72 63 61 85 97 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Terms and Definitions of Cattle on Feed Estimates Cattle on feed are animals being fed a ration of grain, silage, hay and/or protein supplement for slaughter market that are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. It excludes cattle being "backgrounded only" for later sale as feeders or later placement in another feedlot. Placements are cattle put into a feedlot, fed a ration which will produce a carcass that will grade select or better, and are intended for the slaughter market. Marketings are cattle shipped out of feedlots to a slaughter market. Other disappearance includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture, and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Reliability of Cattle on Feed Estimates Survey Procedures: During January and July all known feedlots in the United States with capacity of 1,000 or more head are surveyed to provide data for cattle on feed estimates. During the other months, all known feedlots from 16 States are surveyed. The 16 States account for approximately 98 percent of the cattle on feed in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head. Individual State estimates are published monthly for 11 of the 16 States. Data collected from the remaining 5 States are used to establish the "Other States" estimates. These 5 States include Illinois, Minnesota, New Mexico, Oregon, and Wyoming. The "Other States" category represents all cattle on feed with a capacity of 1,000 or more head for the rest of the United States. Estimating Procedures: These cattle on feed estimates were prepared by the Agricultural Statistics Board after reviewing recommendations and analysis submitted by each State office. Regional and State survey data were reviewed for reasonableness with each other and with estimates from the previous month when establishing the current estimates. Revision Policy: Revisions to previous estimates are made to improve month to month relationships. Estimates for the previous month are subject to revision in all States each month when current estimates are made. In February, all monthly estimates for the previous year, and the number of feedlots and annual marketings from two years ago are reviewed and subject to revisions. The reviews are primarily based on slaughter data, state check-off or brand data, and any other data that may have been received after the original estimate was made. Estimates will also be reviewed after data from the Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions will be made after that date and estimates become final. Reliability: Since all 1,000+ capacity cattle on feed operators in every State are not included in the monthly survey, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the table on the following page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and latest estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for cattle on feed inventory estimates over the past 24 months is 0.2 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 10.6 million head by more than 0.1 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 0.3 percent. The table on the following page shows a 24 month record of the range of differences between first and latest estimates for selected items. Using estimates of number on feed as an example, changes between the first estimate and the latest estimate during the past 24 months have averaged 13,000 head, ranging from 0 to 47,000 head. During this period the initial estimate has been above the latest estimate 13 times and has been below the latest estimate 4 times. This does not imply that the initial estimate is likely to understate or overstate final inventory. Reliability of Monthly Cattle on Feed Estimates [[Based on data for the past 24 months]] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Root mean : 90 percent : Difference between first and latest estimate : square error : confidence : : : : : : : level :------------------------------------------------------------- Item : : : : : : Months : : : : : :------------------------------- : : : Average :Smallest : Largest : Below latest : Above latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : percent percent -------- 1,000 ------- ----- number ---- : Number on feed ...............: 0.2 0.3 13 0 47 4 13 : Placements ...................: 0.3 0.5 3 0 18 6 9 : Marketings ...................: 0.3 0.5 3 0 20 7 4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to nass@nass.usda.gov Dan Kerestes, Chief, Livestock Branch ........... (202) 720-3570 Scott Hollis, Head, Livestock Section ........... (202) 690-2424 Travis Averill - Cattle, Cattle on Feed ...... (202) 720-3040 Sherry Bertramsen - Livestock Slaughter ...... (515) 284-4340 Doug Bounds - Hogs and Pigs .................. (202) 720-3106 Donnie Fike - Dairy Products ................. (202) 690-3236 Mike Miller - Milk Production and Milk Cows .. (202) 720-3278 Alissa Cowell-Mytar - Sheep and Goats ........ (202) 720-4751 Access to NASS Reports For your convenience, you may access NASS reports and products the following ways: All reports are available electronically, at no cost, on the NASS web site: http://www.nass.usda.gov Both national and state specific reports are available via a free e- mail subscription. 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