Cattle on Feed ISSN: 1948-9080 Released October 19, 2012, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). United States Cattle on Feed Down 3 Percent Cattle and calves on feed for slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.0 million head on October 1, 2012. The inventory was 3 percent below October 1, 2011. The inventory included 6.96 million steers and steer calves, up slightly from the previous year. This group accounted for 63 percent of the total inventory. Heifers and heifer calves accounted for 3.97 million head, down 8 percent from 2011. Placements in feedlots during September totaled 2.00 million, 19 percent below 2011. This is the lowest cattle placements for the month of September since the series began in 1996. Net placements were 1.94 million head. During September, placements of cattle and calves weighing less than 600 pounds were 515,000, 600-699 pounds were 355,000, 700-799 pounds were 444,000, and 800 pounds and greater were 690,000. Marketings of fed cattle during September totaled 1.60 million, 12 percent below 2011. This is the second lowest cattle marketings for the month of September since the series began in 1996. Other disappearance totaled 64,000 during September, 14 percent below 2011. Number of Cattle on Feed, Placements, Marketings, and Other Disappearance on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots - United States: October 1, 2011 and 2012 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : Percent of Item :---------------------------: : 2011 : 2012 :previous year ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 head ---- percent : On feed September 1 ....................: 10,700 10,647 100 Placed on feed during September ........: 2,469 2,004 81 Fed cattle marketed during September ...: 1,813 1,598 88 Other disappearance during September ...: 74 64 86 On feed October 1 ......................: 11,282 10,989 97 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number of Cattle on Feed, Placements, Marketings, and Other Disappearance on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots - United States: September 1, 2011 and 2012 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : Percent of Item :---------------------------: : 2011 : 2012 :previous year ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 head ---- percent : On feed August 1 .......................: 10,579 10,656 101 Placed on feed during August ...........: 2,246 2,007 89 Fed cattle marketed during August ......: 2,053 1,955 95 Other disappearance during August ......: 72 61 85 On feed September 1 ....................: 10,700 10,647 100 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number on Feed by Class on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots - United States: October 1, 2011 and 2012 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : Percent of Item :---------------------------: : 2011 : 2012 :previous year -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 Head --- percent : Class on Feed October 1 : Steers and Steer Calves ...........: 6,935 6,960 100 Heifers and Heifer Calves .........: 4,298 3,967 92 Cows and Bulls ....................: 49 62 127 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number of Cattle on Feed on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States: 2011 and 2012 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : October 1, 2012 : : :----------------------------------------- State : October 1, 2011 :September 1, 2012: : Percent of : Percent of : : : Number :previous year :previous month ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -------------- 1,000 head ------------- ----- percent ---- : Arizona ........: 280 271 272 97 100 California .....: 490 480 475 97 99 Colorado .......: 1,070 930 1,000 93 108 Idaho ..........: 220 205 230 105 112 Iowa ...........: 550 590 590 107 100 Kansas .........: 2,320 2,180 2,230 96 102 Nebraska .......: 2,210 2,240 2,330 105 104 Oklahoma .......: 370 325 335 91 103 South Dakota ...: 205 185 195 95 105 Texas ..........: 2,940 2,620 2,680 91 102 Washington .....: 208 208 213 102 102 : Other States ...: 419 413 439 105 106 : United States ..: 11,282 10,647 10,989 97 103 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number of Cattle Placed on Feed on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States: 2011 and 2012 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During September 2012 : During : During :-------------------------------------------- State :September 2011: August 2012 : : Percent of : Percent of : : : Number :previous year :previous month --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 head ----------- ----- percent ---- : Arizona ..........: 19 18 20 105 111 California .......: 70 63 50 71 79 Colorado .........: 275 190 225 82 118 Idaho ............: 67 53 61 91 115 Iowa .............: 115 76 89 77 117 Kansas ...........: 500 435 375 75 86 Nebraska .........: 560 470 470 84 100 Oklahoma .........: 88 67 57 65 85 South Dakota .....: 51 34 50 98 147 Texas ............: 560 495 480 86 97 Washington .......: 54 47 46 85 98 : Other States .....: 110 59 81 74 137 : United States ....: 2,469 2,007 2,004 81 100 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number of Cattle Placed on Feed by Weight Group on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States: 2011 and 2012 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : During September :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State :Under 600 lbs: 600-699 lbs : 700-799 lbs : 800+ lbs : Total :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2011 : 2012 : 2011 : 2012 : 2011 : 2012 : 2011 : 2012 : 2011 : 2012 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : 1,000 head : Colorado .....: 40 40 25 20 60 55 150 110 275 225 Kansas .......: 120 80 110 85 140 105 130 105 500 375 Nebraska .....: 100 90 80 60 110 100 270 220 560 470 Texas ........: 280 185 125 130 85 100 70 65 560 480 : Other States .: 145 120 75 60 109 84 245 190 574 454 : United States : 685 515 415 355 504 444 865 690 2,469 2,004 :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : During August :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State :Under 600 lbs: 600-699 lbs : 700-799 lbs : 800+ lbs : Total :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2011 : 2012 : 2011 : 2012 : 2011 : 2012 : 2011 : 2012 : 2011 : 2012 :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head : Colorado .....: 45 30 30 25 45 50 110 85 230 190 Kansas .......: 105 80 105 105 165 120 145 130 520 435 Nebraska .....: 90 70 65 75 100 120 190 205 445 470 Texas ........: 365 200 115 120 85 110 55 65 620 495 : Other States .: 110 102 50 60 81 75 190 180 431 417 : United States : 715 482 365 385 476 475 690 665 2,246 2,007 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Number of Cattle Marketed on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States: 2011 and 2012 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During September 2012 : During : During :-------------------------------------------- State :September 2011: August 2012 : : Percent of : Percent of : : : Number :previous year :previous month --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 head ----------- ----- percent ---- : Arizona ..........: 21 20 18 86 90 California .......: 49 55 52 106 95 Colorado .........: 185 195 150 81 77 Idaho ............: 41 37 35 85 95 Iowa .............: 92 84 87 95 104 Kansas ...........: 375 405 310 83 77 Nebraska .........: 350 445 370 106 83 Oklahoma .........: 79 60 45 57 75 South Dakota .....: 35 38 39 111 103 Texas ............: 490 510 400 82 78 Washington .......: 38 48 40 105 83 : Other States .....: 58 58 52 90 90 : United States ....: 1,813 1,955 1,598 88 82 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Other Disappearance on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States: 2011 and 2012 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During September 2012 : During : During :-------------------------------------------- State :September 2011: August 2012 : : Percent of : Percent of : : : Number :previous year :previous month --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------- 1,000 head ---------- ----- percent ---- : Arizona ..........: 1 1 1 100 100 California .......: 6 3 3 50 100 Colorado .........: 10 5 5 50 100 Idaho ............: 1 1 1 100 100 Iowa .............: 3 2 2 67 100 Kansas ...........: 15 10 15 100 150 Nebraska .........: 10 15 10 100 67 Oklahoma .........: 4 2 2 50 100 South Dakota .....: 1 1 1 100 100 Texas ............: 20 15 20 100 133 Washington .......: 1 1 1 100 100 : Other States .....: 2 5 3 150 60 : United States ....: 74 61 64 86 105 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number on Feed by Class on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Quarter - States and United States: 2011 and 2012 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Steers and steer calves :Heifers and heifer calves : Cows and bulls :----------------------------------------------------------------------------- State : Oct 1, : Jul 1, : Oct 1, : Oct 1, : Jul 1, : Oct 1, :Oct 1, :Jul 1, :Oct 1, : 2011 : 2012 : 2012 : 2011 : 2012 : 2012 : 2011 : 2012 : 2012 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head : Arizona ......: 277 265 268 3 14 4 0 0 0 California ...: 425 415 410 63 64 65 2 1 0 Colorado .....: 730 645 670 335 320 325 5 5 5 Idaho ........: 136 127 137 82 69 89 2 4 4 Iowa .........: 380 445 415 169 175 175 1 0 0 Kansas .......: 1,220 1,070 1,200 1,090 975 1,025 10 5 5 Nebraska .....: 1,290 1,360 1,400 905 890 900 15 20 30 Oklahoma .....: 205 200 225 165 120 110 0 0 0 South Dakota .: 114 121 108 81 71 75 10 18 12 Texas ........: 1,750 1,630 1,690 1,189 1,039 989 1 1 1 Washington ...: 123 133 137 83 76 74 2 1 2 : Other States .: 285 325 300 133 105 136 1 1 3 : United States : 6,935 6,736 6,960 4,298 3,918 3,967 49 56 62 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Terms and Definitions of Cattle on Feed Estimates Cattle on feed are animals being fed a ration of grain, silage, hay and/or protein supplement for slaughter market that are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. It excludes cattle being "backgrounded only" for later sale as feeders or later placement in another feedlot. Placements are cattle put into a feedlot, fed a ration which will produce a carcass that will grade select or better, and are intended for the slaughter market. Marketings are cattle shipped out of feedlots to a slaughter market. Other disappearance includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture, and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Reliability of Cattle on Feed Estimates Survey Procedures: During January and July all known feedlots in the United States with capacity of 1,000 or more head are surveyed to provide data for cattle on feed estimates. During the other months, all known feedlots from 16 States are surveyed. The 16 States account for approximately 98 percent of the cattle on feed in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head. Individual State estimates are published monthly for 11 of the 16 States. Data collected from the remaining 5 States are used to establish the "Other States" estimates. These 5 States include Illinois, Minnesota, New Mexico, Oregon, and Wyoming. The "Other States" category represents all cattle on feed with a capacity of 1,000 or more head for the rest of the United States. Estimating Procedures: These cattle on feed estimates were prepared by the Agricultural Statistics Board after reviewing recommendations and analysis submitted by each State office. Regional and State survey data were reviewed for reasonableness with each other and with estimates from the previous month when establishing the current estimates. Revision Policy: Revisions to previous estimates are made to improve month to month relationships. Estimates for the previous month are subject to revision in all States each month when current estimates are made. In February, all monthly estimates for the previous year, and the number of feedlots and annual marketings from two years ago are reviewed and subject to revisions. The reviews are primarily based on slaughter data, state check-off or brand data, and any other data that may have been received after the original estimate was made. Estimates will also be reviewed after data from the Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions will be made after that date and estimates become final. Reliability: Since all 1,000+ capacity cattle on feed operators in every State are not included in the monthly survey, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the table on the following page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and latest estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for cattle on feed inventory estimates over the past 24 months is 0.2 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 11.0 million head by more than 0.1 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 0.3 percent. The table on the following page shows a 24 month record of the range of differences between first and latest estimates for selected items. Using estimates of number on feed as an example, changes between the first estimate and the latest estimate during the past 24 months have averaged 13,000 head, ranging from 0 to 47,000 head. During this period the initial estimate has been above the latest estimate 13 times and has been below the latest estimate 4 times. This does not imply that the initial estimate is likely to understate or overstate final inventory. Reliability of Monthly Cattle on Feed Estimates [[Based on data for the past 24 months]] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Root mean : 90 percent : Difference between first and latest estimate : square error : confidence : : : : : : : level :------------------------------------------------------------- Item : : : : : : Months : : : : : :------------------------------- : : : Average :Smallest : Largest : Below latest : Above latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : percent percent -------- 1,000 ------- ----- number ---- : Number on feed ...............: 0.2 0.3 13 0 47 4 13 : Placements ...................: 0.3 0.5 3 0 18 6 9 : Marketings ...................: 0.3 0.5 3 0 20 7 5 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to nass@nass.usda.gov Dan Kerestes, Chief, Livestock Branch ........... (202) 720-3570 Scott Hollis, Head, Livestock Section ........... (202) 690-2424 Travis Averill - Cattle, Cattle on Feed ...... (202) 720-3040 Sherry Bertramsen - Livestock Slaughter ...... (515) 284-4340 Doug Bounds - Hogs and Pigs .................. (202) 720-3106 Donnie Fike - Dairy Products ................. (202) 690-3236 Mike Miller - Milk Production and Milk Cows .. (202) 720-3278 Alissa Cowell-Mytar - Sheep and Goats ........ (202) 720-4751 Access to NASS Reports For your convenience, you may access NASS reports and products the following ways: All reports are available electronically, at no cost, on the NASS web site: http://www.nass.usda.gov Both national and state specific reports are available via a free e- mail subscription. 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