Cattle on Feed ISSN: 1948-9080 Released December 21, 2012, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). United States Cattle on Feed Down 6 Percent Cattle and calves on feed for slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.3 million head on December 1, 2012. The inventory was 6 percent below December 1, 2011. Placements in feedlots during November totaled 1.92 million, 6 percent below 2011. Net placements were 1.84 million head. During November, placements of cattle and calves weighing less than 600 pounds were 645,000, 600-699 pounds were 450,000, 700-799 pounds were 375,000, and 800 pounds and greater were 453,000. Marketings of fed cattle during November totaled 1.76 million, 1 percent below 2011. Other disappearance totaled 88,000 during November, 9 percent below 2011. Number of Cattle on Feed, Placements, Marketings, and Other Disappearance on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots - United States: December 1, 2011 and 2012 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : Percent of Item :---------------------------: : 2011 : 2012 :previous year ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 head ---- percent : On feed November 1 .....................: 11,889 11,254 95 Placed on feed during November .........: 2,037 1,923 94 Fed cattle marketed during November ....: 1,774 1,761 99 Other disappearance during November ....: 97 88 91 On feed December 1 .....................: 12,055 11,328 94 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number of Cattle on Feed, Placements, Marketings, and Other Disappearance on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots - United States: November 1, 2011 and 2012 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : Percent of Item :---------------------------: : 2011 : 2012 :previous year ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 head ---- percent : On feed October 1 ......................: 11,282 10,989 97 Placed on feed during October ..........: 2,492 2,180 87 Fed cattle marketed during October .....: 1,787 1,837 103 Other disappearance during October .....: 98 78 80 On feed November 1 .....................: 11,889 11,254 95 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number of Cattle on Feed on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States: 2011 and 2012 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : December 1, 2012 : : :----------------------------------------- State :December 1, 2011 :November 1, 2012 : : Percent of : Percent of : : : Number :previous year :previous month ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -------------- 1,000 head ------------- ----- percent ---- : Arizona ........: 290 265 267 92 101 California .....: 505 480 490 97 102 Colorado .......: 1,160 1,030 1,020 88 99 Idaho ..........: 235 240 245 104 102 Iowa ...........: 610 590 610 100 103 Kansas .........: 2,360 2,220 2,170 92 98 Nebraska .......: 2,560 2,480 2,530 99 102 Oklahoma .......: 385 345 345 90 100 South Dakota ...: 265 220 230 87 105 Texas ..........: 2,990 2,670 2,700 90 101 Washington .....: 236 248 261 111 105 : Other States ...: 459 466 460 100 99 : United States ..: 12,055 11,254 11,328 94 101 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number of Cattle Placed on Feed on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States: 2011 and 2012 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During November 2012 : During : During :-------------------------------------------- State :November 2011 : October 2012 : : Percent of : Percent of : : : Number :previous year :previous month --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 head ----------- ----- percent ---- : Arizona ..........: 27 19 28 104 147 California .......: 66 62 65 98 105 Colorado .........: 175 195 150 86 77 Idaho ............: 46 55 40 87 73 Iowa .............: 143 146 123 86 84 Kansas ...........: 375 380 355 95 93 Nebraska .........: 480 590 465 97 79 Oklahoma .........: 60 65 56 93 86 South Dakota .....: 70 71 57 81 80 Texas ............: 470 450 465 99 103 Washington .......: 54 74 57 106 77 : Other States .....: 71 73 62 87 85 : United States ....: 2,037 2,180 1,923 94 88 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number of Cattle Placed on Feed by Weight Group on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States: 2011 and 2012 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : During November :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State :Under 600 lbs: 600-699 lbs : 700-799 lbs : 800+ lbs : Total :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2011 : 2012 : 2011 : 2012 : 2011 : 2012 : 2011 : 2012 : 2011 : 2012 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : 1,000 head : Colorado .....: 55 40 40 40 30 30 50 40 175 150 Kansas .......: 85 70 100 90 120 105 70 90 375 355 Nebraska .....: 130 120 135 120 85 80 130 145 480 465 Texas ........: 270 230 100 105 60 80 40 50 470 465 : Other States .: 210 185 125 95 82 80 120 128 537 488 : United States : 750 645 500 450 377 375 410 453 2,037 1,923 :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : During October :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State :Under 600 lbs: 600-699 lbs : 700-799 lbs : 800+ lbs : Total :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2011 : 2012 : 2011 : 2012 : 2011 : 2012 : 2011 : 2012 : 2011 : 2012 :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head : Colorado .....: 60 65 50 45 50 35 70 50 230 195 Kansas .......: 115 80 120 95 115 120 90 85 440 380 Nebraska .....: 185 190 180 130 110 80 190 190 665 590 Texas ........: 250 165 125 125 115 100 70 60 560 450 : Other States .: 230 180 115 110 97 100 155 175 597 565 : United States : 840 680 590 505 487 435 575 560 2,492 2,180 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Number of Cattle Marketed on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States: 2011 and 2012 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During November 2012 : During : During :-------------------------------------------- State :November 2011 : October 2012 : : Percent of : Percent of : : : Number :previous year :previous month --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 head ----------- ----- percent ---- : Arizona ..........: 28 25 25 89 100 California .......: 46 54 51 111 94 Colorado .........: 145 160 155 107 97 Idaho ............: 35 44 34 97 77 Iowa .............: 100 143 100 100 70 Kansas ...........: 395 365 390 99 107 Nebraska .........: 375 425 400 107 94 Oklahoma .........: 61 54 54 89 100 South Dakota .....: 41 45 45 110 100 Texas ............: 450 440 415 92 94 Washington .......: 43 38 43 100 113 : Other States .....: 55 44 49 89 111 : United States ....: 1,774 1,837 1,761 99 96 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Other Disappearance on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States: 2011 and 2012 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During November 2012 : During : During :-------------------------------------------- State :November 2011 : October 2012 : : Percent of : Percent of : : : Number :previous year :previous month --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------- 1,000 head ---------- ----- percent ---- : Arizona ..........: 1 1 1 100 100 California .......: 5 3 4 80 133 Colorado .........: 10 5 5 50 100 Idaho ............: 1 1 1 100 100 Iowa .............: 3 3 3 100 100 Kansas ...........: 20 25 15 75 60 Nebraska .........: 15 15 15 100 100 Oklahoma .........: 4 1 2 50 200 South Dakota .....: 4 1 2 50 200 Texas ............: 30 20 20 67 100 Washington .......: 1 1 1 100 100 : Other States .....: 3 2 19 633 950 : United States ....: 97 78 88 91 113 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Terms and Definitions of Cattle on Feed Estimates Cattle on feed are animals being fed a ration of grain, silage, hay and/or protein supplement for slaughter market that are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. It excludes cattle being "backgrounded only" for later sale as feeders or later placement in another feedlot. Placements are cattle put into a feedlot, fed a ration which will produce a carcass that will grade select or better, and are intended for the slaughter market. Marketings are cattle shipped out of feedlots to a slaughter market. Other disappearance includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture, and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Reliability of Cattle on Feed Estimates Survey Procedures: During January and July all known feedlots in the United States with capacity of 1,000 or more head are surveyed to provide data for cattle on feed estimates. During the other months, all known feedlots from 16 States are surveyed. The 16 States account for approximately 98 percent of the cattle on feed in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head. Individual State estimates are published monthly for 11 of the 16 States. Data collected from the remaining 5 States are used to establish the "Other States" estimates. These 5 States include Illinois, Minnesota, New Mexico, Oregon, and Wyoming. The "Other States" category represents all cattle on feed with a capacity of 1,000 or more head for the rest of the United States. Estimating Procedures: These cattle on feed estimates were prepared by the Agricultural Statistics Board after reviewing recommendations and analysis submitted by each State office. Regional and State survey data were reviewed for reasonableness with each other and with estimates from the previous month when establishing the current estimates. Revision Policy: Revisions to previous estimates are made to improve month to month relationships. Estimates for the previous month are subject to revision in all States each month when current estimates are made. In February, all monthly estimates for the previous year, and the number of feedlots and annual marketings from two years ago are reviewed and subject to revisions. The reviews are primarily based on slaughter data, state check-off or brand data, and any other data that may have been received after the original estimate was made. Estimates will also be reviewed after data from the Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions will be made after that date and estimates become final. Reliability: Since all 1,000+ capacity cattle on feed operators in every State are not included in the monthly survey, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the table on the following page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and latest estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for cattle on feed inventory estimates over the past 24 months is 0.2 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 11.3 million head by more than 0.1 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 0.3 percent. The table on the following page shows a 24 month record of the range of differences between first and latest estimates for selected items. Using estimates of number on feed as an example, changes between the first estimate and the latest estimate during the past 24 months have averaged 12,000 head, ranging from 0 to 47,000 head. During this period the initial estimate has been above the latest estimate 13 times and has been below the latest estimate 2 times. This does not imply that the initial estimate is likely to understate or overstate final inventory. Reliability of Monthly Cattle on Feed Estimates [[Based on data for the past 24 months]] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Root mean : 90 percent : Difference between first and latest estimate : square error : confidence : : : : : : : level :------------------------------------------------------------- Item : : : : : : Months : : : : : :------------------------------- : : : Average :Smallest : Largest : Below latest : Above latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : percent percent -------- 1,000 ------- ----- number ---- : Number on feed ...............: 0.2 0.3 12 0 47 2 13 : Placements ...................: 0.3 0.5 3 0 18 4 9 : Marketings ...................: 0.3 0.5 3 0 20 7 5 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to nass@nass.usda.gov Dan Kerestes, Chief, Livestock Branch ........... (202) 720-3570 Scott Hollis, Head, Livestock Section ........... (202) 690-2424 Travis Averill - Cattle, Cattle on Feed ...... (202) 720-3040 Sherry Bertramsen - Livestock Slaughter ...... (515) 284-4340 Doug Bounds - Hogs and Pigs .................. (202) 720-3106 Donnie Fike - Dairy Products ................. (202) 690-3236 Mike Miller - Milk Production and Milk Cows .. (202) 720-3278 Alissa Cowell-Mytar - Sheep and Goats ........ (202) 720-4751 Access to NASS Reports For your convenience, you may access NASS reports and products the following ways: All reports are available electronically, at no cost, on the NASS web site: http://www.nass.usda.gov Both national and state specific reports are available via a free e- mail subscription. 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