HDR1012000110010911960830CROP PRODUCTION HDR2012000110010911960830HIGHLIGHTS & SUMMARY Crop Production National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released September 11, 1996, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Crop Production" call at (202) 720-2127, office hours 8:00 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. ET. For assistance with general agricultural statistics, information about NASS, its products or services, contact the NASS Information Hotline at 1-800-727-9540 or E-mail: NASS@NASS.USDA.GOV. The "Crop Production" U.S. Summary is available on AutoFax, (202) 720-2000, Report 1150. See Page B-17. Index and report features are located at the end of this report. Corn Production up - Soybean Production down Corn production is forecast at 8.80 billion bushels, up 19 percent from 1995 production. Based on conditions as of September 1, yields are expected to average 120.2 bushels per acre, up 1.5 bushels from last month and 6.7 bushels from 1995. Acreage harvested and to be harvested for grain is forecast at 73.3 million acres, unchanged from last month. Yield prospects increased in Illinois, Iowa, and Nebraska, but yields decreased in Ohio and Wisconsin. Minnesota and Indiana yields were unchanged. Soybeans: As of September 1 soybean production is forecast at 2.27 billion bushels, down 1 percent from August 1, but up 5 percent from 1995. Yield is forecast at 35.8 bushels per acre, 0.4 bushels below the August 1 estimate, but 0.9 bushels above a year ago. Acres intended for harvest at 63.4 million acres, is unchanged from August 1. Crop maturity continues to be behind normal. As of the first of the month, soybeans were rated in fair to good condition. The estimates in this release are based on conditions of September 1 and do not reflect the effects of Hurricane Fran which hit the coast of North Carolina on September 5. High winds and heavy rains caused damage to some crops in the Carolinas and Virginia. Cr Pr 2-2 (9-96) All cotton: Production is forecast at 17.9 million bales, down 4 percent from last month and unchanged from 1995. Yield is indicated at 661 pounds per acre, up 124 pounds from last year. High temperatures in California caused boll shedding and production was decreased 400,000 bales from August. Louisiana's expected output dropped 120,000 bales from last month, as early dry conditions, increased insect pressure, and some boll rot reduced yield potential. Similar conditions caused Arkansas' forecast to be lowered 170,000 bales. Texas' production remains unchanged from one month earlier. All wheat: The 1996 production is forecast at 2.30 billion bushels, up 2 percent from last month and 5 percent above the 1995 crop. The U.S. yield is placed at 36.4 bushels per acre, up 0.8 bushels from the last forecast. Other spring wheat: Production is forecast at 687 million bushels, up 8 percent from last month and 28 percent from 1995. This production level is second only to the 1992 record of 758 million bushels. The U.S. yield is expected to average 35.1 bushels per acre, up 2.6 bushels from a month ago. Grain area is unchanged from last month. Lower Idaho yield prospects caused the drop in White Spring production. Hard Red Spring production is up from last month because better than expected yields in Minnesota and the Dakotas more than covered Montana's decline. Durum wheat: Production is forecast at 114 million bushels, down 5 percent from last month but still up 11 percent from 1995. The U.S. yield is placed at 33.0 bushels per acre, down 1.6 bushels from the last forecast. Area for grain remains at 3.36 million acres. Yield increases in Minnesota and South Dakota were more than offset by a 2 bushel drop in the North Dakota yield forecast. The North Dakota decline is largely due to head scab related problems. California Navel orange production for 1996-97 is forecast at 37.0 million boxes, down 3 percent from last season's production of 38.0 million boxes. This initial forecast of the 1996-97 season is based on an objective measurement survey conducted in the California Central Valley. The crop is maturing well with fruit set down significantly from last year but much larger individual fruit size. This report was approved on September 11, 1996, by the Secretary of Agriculture and the National Agricultural Statistics Service's Agricultural Statistics Board. Secretary of Agricultural Statistics Board Agriculture Chairperson Dan Glickman Rich Allen Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 1995 and Forecasted September 1, 1996 (Domestic Units) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Area Planted : Area Harvested 1/ Crop :---------------------------------------------------- : 1995 : 1996 : 1995 : 1996 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : 1,000 Acres : Corn : 71,245 79,555 64,995 73,269 Sorghum : 9,454 13,284 8,278 12,004 Barley : 6,689 7,134 6,277 6,761 All Wheat : 69,177 75,624 60,971 63,118 Durum : 3,436 3,565 3,356 3,456 Other Spring : 17,015 20,006 16,622 19,565 Rice : 3,121.0 2,910.0 3,093.0 2,879.0 Soybeans : 62,575 64,315 61,624 63,440 Peanuts : 1,537.5 1,433.0 1,517.0 1,410.5 All Cotton : 16,931.4 14,243.0 16,006.7 12,994.6 Upland : 16,716.8 13,979.0 15,795.6 12,732.7 Amer-Pima : 214.6 264.0 211.1 261.9 Potatoes : Summer 2/ : 72.5 79.9 70.7 76.3 Fall 2/ : 1,224.1 1,261.2 1,205.2 1,244.6 Total 2/ : 1,398.2 1,446.6 1,372.1 1,423.6 Tobacco : 663.1 735.2 Sugarbeets : 1,444.6 1,384.1 1,417.1 1,334.0 Sugarcane for : Sugar and Seed : 932.3 869.0 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Harvested for principal use of each crop, ie., grain, beans, etc. 2/ 1995 revised. Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 1995-96 (Domestic Units) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Area Planted : Area Harvested Crop :---------------------------------------------------- : 1995 : 1996 1/ : 1995 : 1996 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : 1,000 Acres : Oats : 6,336 4,608 2,959 2,673 Winter Wheat : 48,726 52,053 40,993 40,097 Rye : 1,612 1,502 378 367 Sunflower : 3,478 2,787 3,368 2,685 Flaxseed : 165 112 147 106 All Hay : 59,779 60,599 Alfalfa : 24,569 24,256 All Other : 35,210 36,343 Dry Edible Beans : 2,069.3 1,818.0 1,899.3 1,710.6 Potatoes : Winter : 13.3 13.6 11.9 13.5 Spring : 88.3 91.9 84.3 89.2 Sweetpotatoes : 87.4 89.4 83.6 86.2 Hops : 43.2 44.1 Ginger Root (HI) : 0.1 0.2 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast. Crop Summary: Yield per Acre and Production, United States, 1995 and Forecasted September 1, 1996 (Domestic Units) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Yield per Acre: Production Crop and Unit :--------------------------------------------------- : : : : Aug 1, : Sep 1, : 1995 : 1996 : 1995 : 1996 : 1996 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------- 1,000 ------------ : Corn for Grain Bu : 113.5 120.2 7,373,876 8,694,628 8,803,928 Sorghum for Grain " : 55.6 63.6 460,373 733,687 763,973 Barley " : 57.2 58.3 359,102 387,852 394,202 All Wheat " : 35.8 36.4 2,185,539 2,249,362 2,295,690 Durum " : 30.5 33.0 102,280 119,652 113,980 Other Spring " : 32.2 35.1 535,948 634,994 686,994 Rice 1/ Cwt : 5,621 5,957 173,871 168,784 171,494 Soybeans for Beans Bu : 34.9 35.8 2,151,834 2,299,675 2,269,505 Peanuts Lb : 2,282 2,384 3,461,475 3,346,900 3,362,650 All Cotton 1/ Bale: 537 661 17,899.8 18,577.1 17,900.1 Upland 1/ " : 533 653 17,532.2 18,001.1 17,326.1 Amer-Pima 1/ " : 836 1,052 367.6 576.0 574.0 Cottonseed Ton : 6,848.7 7,101.4 6,846.4 Potatoes : Summer 2/ 3/ Cwt : 254 250 17,931 18,876 19,095 Fall 2/ " : 334 403,009 Total 2/ " : 323 443,606 Tobacco Lb : 1,913 2,150 1,268,494 1,595,624 1,580,549 Sugarbeets Ton : 19.8 19.8 28,026 26,061 26,399 Sugarcane for : Sugar and Seed " : 33.0 31.4 30,796 27,626 27,276 Pecans Lb : 268,000 244,700 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Yield in pounds. 2/ 1995 revised. 3/ August 1 estimate carried forward from the July 1 forecast. Crop Summary: Yield per Acre and Production, United States, 1995-96 (Domestic Units) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Yield per Acre : Production Crop and Unit :--------------------------------------------------- : 1995 : 1996 1/ : 1995 : 1996 1/ ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------- 1,000 ------- : Oats Bu : 54.7 59.0 161,847 157,633 Winter Wheat " : 37.7 37.3 1,547,311 1,494,716 All Hay Ton : 2.59 2.45 154,786 148,515 Alfalfa " : 3.46 3.31 84,980 80,382 All Other " : 1.98 1.87 69,806 68,133 Dry Edible Beans 2/ Cwt : 1,634 1,608 31,032 27,512 Potatoes : Winter " : 208 215 2,473 2,907 Spring " : 240 238 20,193 21,197 Hops Lb : 1,826 1,788 78,852.4 78,884.0 Ginger Root (HI) " : 43,000 47,000 5,800.0 9,400.0 Apples, Comm'l " : 10,736,000 10,733,500 Peaches " : 2,301,300 1,993,400 Pears Ton : 948.3 783.4 Grapes " : 5,936.3 5,954.0 Sweet Cherries " : 165.3 133.2 Tart Cherries Lb : 395,600 247,900 Apricots Ton : 58.5 73.3 Olives (CA) " : 77.5 140.0 Dried Prunes (CA) " : 181.0 200.0 Prunes and Plums : (Excl CA) " : 23.0 19.0 Almonds (CA) Lb : 370,000 530,000 Hazelnuts Ton : 39.0 20.0 Walnuts (CA) " : 234.0 220.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast. 2/ Yield in pounds. Crop Summary: Yield per Hectare and Production, United States, 1995-96 (Metric Units) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Yield per Hectare : Production Crop :---------------------------------------------------- : 1995 : 1996 1/ : 1995 : 1996 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Metric Tons : Oats : 1.96 2.12 2,349,200 2,288,040 Winter Wheat : 2.54 2.51 42,110,900 40,679,500 All Hay : 5.80 5.49 140,419,500 134,730,540 Alfalfa : 7.75 7.43 77,092,560 72,921,320 All Other : 4.44 4.20 63,326,940 61,809,220 Dry Edible Beans : 1.83 1.80 1,407,590 1,247,920 Potatoes : Winter : 23.27 24.15 112,170 131,860 Spring : 26.84 26.63 915,940 961,480 Hops : 2.05 2.00 35,770 35,780 Ginger Root (HI) : 52.60 53.25 2,630 4,260 Apples, Comm'l : 4,869,770 4,868,630 Peaches : 1,043,850 904,190 Pears : 860,240 710,690 Grapes : 5,385,320 5,401,380 Sweet Cherries : 149,910 120,840 Tart Cherries : 179,440 112,450 Apricots : 53,070 66,500 Olives (CA) : 70,310 127,010 Dried Prunes (CA) : 164,200 181,440 Prunes and Plums : (Excl CA) : 20,870 17,240 Almonds (CA) : 167,830 240,400 Hazelnuts : 35,380 18,140 Walnuts (CA) : 212,280 199,580 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast. Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 1995 and Forecasted September 1, 1996 (Metric Units) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Area Planted : Area Harvested 1/ Crop :------------------------------------------------------- : 1995 : 1996 : 1995 : 1996 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Hectares : Corn : 28,832,140 32,195,110 26,302,830 29,651,230 Sorghum : 3,825,940 5,375,900 3,350,020 4,857,900 Barley : 2,706,970 2,887,060 2,540,240 2,736,110 All Wheat : 27,995,240 30,604,280 24,674,350 25,543,220 Durum : 1,390,510 1,442,720 1,358,140 1,398,610 Other Spring : 6,885,800 8,096,230 6,726,760 7,917,760 Rice : 1,263,040 1,177,650 1,251,710 1,165,100 Soybeans : 25,323,480 26,027,640 24,938,620 25,673,530 Peanuts : 622,210 579,920 613,910 570,820 All Cotton : 6,851,970 5,764,000 6,477,750 5,258,780 Upland : 6,765,120 5,657,160 6,392,320 5,152,800 Amer-Pima : 86,850 106,840 85,430 105,990 Potatoes : Summer 2/ : 29,340 32,330 28,610 30,880 Fall 2/ : 495,380 510,400 487,730 503,680 Total 2/ : 565,840 585,420 555,280 576,120 Tobacco : 268,350 297,520 Sugarbeets : 584,620 560,130 573,490 539,860 Sugarcane for : Sugar and Seed : 377,290 351,680 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Harvested for principal use of each crop, ie., grain, beans, etc. 2/ 1995 revised. Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 1995-96 (Metric Units) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Area Planted : Area Harvested Crop :------------------------------------------------------- : 1995 : 1996 1/ : 1995 : 1996 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Hectares : Oats : 2,564,120 1,864,810 1,197,480 1,081,740 Winter Wheat : 19,718,920 21,065,330 16,589,460 16,226,850 Rye : 652,360 607,840 152,970 148,520 Sunflower : 1,407,510 1,127,870 1,363,000 1,086,590 Flaxseed : 66,770 45,330 59,490 42,900 All Hay : 24,191,960 24,523,810 Alfalfa : 9,942,830 9,816,160 All Other : 14,249,130 14,707,650 Dry Edible Beans : 837,430 735,730 768,630 692,260 Potatoes : Winter : 5,380 5,500 4,820 5,460 Spring : 35,730 37,190 34,120 36,100 Sweetpotatoes : 35,370 36,180 33,830 34,880 Hops : 17,480 17,860 Ginger Root (HI) : 50 80 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast. Crop Summary: Yield per Hectare and Production, United States, 1995 and Forecasted September 1, 1996 (Metric Units) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ :Yield per Hectare: Production Crop :------------------------------------------------------- : : : : Aug 1, : Sep 1, : 1995 : 1996 : 1995 : 1996 : 1996 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Metric Tons : Corn for Grain : 7.12 7.54 187,305,080 220,853,720 223,630,070 Sorghum for Grain : 3.49 3.99 11,694,010 18,636,510 19,405,810 Barley : 3.08 3.14 7,818,520 8,444,480 8,582,740 All Wheat : 2.41 2.45 59,480,620 61,217,590 62,478,440 Durum : 2.05 2.22 2,783,610 3,256,390 3,102,030 Other Spring : 2.17 2.36 14,586,110 17,281,700 18,696,910 Rice : 6.30 6.68 7,886,660 7,655,910 7,778,840 Soybeans for Beans : 2.35 2.41 58,563,320 62,586,900 61,765,800 Peanuts : 2.56 2.67 1,570,100 1,518,130 1,525,270 All Cotton : 0.60 0.74 3,897,230 4,044,690 3,897,280 Upland : 0.60 0.73 3,817,190 3,919,280 3,772,310 Amer-Pima : 0.94 1.18 80,040 125,410 124,970 Cottonseed : 6,213,040 6,442,280 6,210,950 Potatoes : Summer 1/ 2/ : 28.43 28.05 813,340 856,200 866,130 Fall 1/ : 37.48 18,280,180 Total 2/ : 36.24 20,121,630 Tobacco : 2.14 2.41 575,380 723,760 716,930 Sugarbeets : 44.33 44.36 25,424,760 23,642,140 23,948,770 Sugarcane for : Sugar and Seed : 74.05 70.36 27,937,660 25,061,890 24,744,370 Pecans : 121,560 110,990 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ 1995 revised. 2/ August 1 estimate carried forward from July 1. HDR2012000110010911960830STATE TABLES Corn for Grain: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 1995 and Forecasted September 1, 1996 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production :---------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : 1996 : : : 1995 : 1996 : 1995 :-------------------: 1995 : 1996 : : : : Aug 1 : Sep 1 : : ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres ------- Bushels ------- -- 1,000 Bushels -- : AL : 220 270 75.0 80.0 80.0 16,500 21,600 AZ 1/ : 22 35 170.0 175.0 175.0 3,740 6,125 AR 1/ : 85 190 115.0 95.0 95.0 9,775 18,050 CA : 150 220 160.0 175.0 175.0 24,000 38,500 CO : 830 940 111.0 145.0 140.0 92,130 131,600 CT 2/ : DE : 139 150 105.0 115.0 125.0 14,595 18,750 FL 1/ : 60 100 90.0 80.0 80.0 5,400 8,000 GA : 350 540 90.0 90.0 90.0 31,500 48,600 ID 1/ : 35 40 140.0 125.0 125.0 4,900 5,000 IL : 10,000 10,800 113.0 125.0 129.0 1,130,000 1,393,200 IN : 5,300 5,450 113.0 118.0 118.0 598,900 643,100 IA : 11,400 12,400 123.0 129.0 131.0 1,402,200 1,624,400 KS : 1,970 2,350 124.0 145.0 145.0 244,280 340,750 KY : 1,140 1,200 108.0 120.0 122.0 123,120 146,400 LA 1/ : 221 535 105.0 110.0 110.0 23,205 58,850 ME 2/ : MD : 400 465 105.0 120.0 120.0 42,000 55,800 MA 2/ : MI : 2,170 2,350 115.0 99.0 94.0 249,550 220,900 MN : 6,150 7,000 119.0 115.0 115.0 731,850 805,000 MS 1/ : 275 610 95.0 93.0 93.0 26,125 56,730 MO : 1,470 2,600 102.0 119.0 122.0 149,940 317,200 MT 1/ : 16 20 120.0 130.0 130.0 1,920 2,600 NE : 7,700 8,250 111.0 134.0 139.0 854,700 1,146,750 NH 2/ : NJ 1/ : 78 94 93.0 107.0 107.0 7,254 10,058 NM 1/ : 73 80 160.0 165.0 165.0 11,680 13,200 NY : 610 700 105.0 108.0 111.0 64,050 77,700 NC : 700 930 107.0 96.0 96.0 74,900 89,280 ND : 510 700 79.0 80.0 80.0 40,290 56,000 OH : 3,100 2,750 121.0 111.0 108.0 375,100 297,000 OK 1/ : 130 180 125.0 105.0 105.0 16,250 18,900 OR 1/ : 21 28 160.0 180.0 180.0 3,360 5,040 PA : 980 1,050 96.0 120.0 123.0 94,080 129,150 RI 2/ : SC : 265 380 91.0 75.0 75.0 24,115 28,500 SD : 2,450 3,650 79.0 84.0 84.0 193,550 306,600 TN : 540 680 118.0 105.0 110.0 63,720 74,800 TX : 1,900 1,800 114.0 90.0 95.0 216,600 171,000 UT 1/ : 20 22 100.0 135.0 135.0 2,000 2,970 VT 2/ : VA : 275 300 111.0 114.0 120.0 30,525 36,000 WA 1/ : 102 115 190.0 180.0 180.0 19,380 20,700 WV 1/ : 40 40 100.0 100.0 100.0 4,000 4,000 WI : 3,050 3,200 114.0 111.0 109.0 347,700 348,800 WY 1/ : 48 55 104.0 115.0 115.0 4,992 6,325 : US : 64,995 73,269 113.5 118.7 120.2 7,373,876 8,803,928 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast. 2/ Not estimated. Sorghum for Grain: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 1995 and Forecasted September 1, 1996 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production :---------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : 1996 : : : 1995 : 1996 : 1995 :-------------------: 1995 : 1996 : : : : Aug 1 : Sep 1 : : ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres ------ Bushels ------ -- 1,000 Bushels -- : AL 1/ : 8 10 40.0 45.0 45.0 320 450 AR : 185 215 71.0 70.0 76.0 13,135 16,340 CO : 165 220 28.0 35.0 36.0 4,620 7,920 GA 1/ : 30 40 37.0 40.0 40.0 1,110 1,600 IL : 170 230 69.0 74.0 74.0 11,730 17,020 KS : 3,100 4,600 56.0 67.0 72.0 173,600 331,200 KY 1/ : 22 19 84.0 92.0 92.0 1,848 1,748 LA : 84 155 70.0 75.0 75.0 5,880 11,625 MS : 41 72 65.0 70.0 68.0 2,665 4,896 MO : 490 650 73.0 94.0 94.0 35,770 61,100 NE : 980 1,000 58.0 81.0 85.0 56,840 85,000 NM : 130 225 26.0 35.0 35.0 3,380 7,875 NC 1/ : 10 10 65.0 53.0 53.0 650 530 OK : 320 480 40.0 45.0 50.0 12,800 24,000 SC 1/ : 8 5 40.0 45.0 45.0 320 225 SD : 120 160 40.0 53.0 50.0 4,800 8,000 TN 1/ : 15 13 87.0 88.0 88.0 1,305 1,144 TX : 2,400 3,900 54.0 47.0 47.0 129,600 183,300 : US : 8,278 12,004 55.6 61.1 63.6 460,373 763,973 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast. Barley: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 1995 and Forecasted September 1, 1996 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production :---------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : 1996 : : : 1995 : 1996 : 1995 :-------------------: 1995 : 1996 : : : : Aug 1 : Sep 1 : : ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres -------- Bushels -------- -- 1,000 Bushels -- : AZ 1/ : 21 49 90.0 105.0 105.0 1,890 5,145 CA 1/ : 200 220 70.0 65.0 65.0 14,000 14,300 CO : 100 90 100.0 100.0 100.0 10,000 9,000 DE 1/ : 37 23 80.0 70.0 70.0 2,960 1,610 ID : 760 730 80.0 77.0 77.0 60,800 56,210 KS 1/ : 9 10 35.0 30.0 30.0 315 300 KY 1/ : 15 20 70.0 70.0 70.0 1,050 1,400 MD 1/ : 62 49 81.0 65.0 65.0 5,022 3,185 MI 1/ : 23 25 50.0 46.0 46.0 1,150 1,150 MN : 580 525 50.0 55.0 59.0 29,000 30,975 MT : 1,200 1,250 52.0 43.0 41.0 62,400 51,250 NE 1/ : 6 18 37.0 43.0 43.0 222 774 NV 1/ : 4 5 80.0 100.0 100.0 320 500 NJ 1/ : 5 3 65.0 68.0 68.0 325 204 NC 1/ : 30 20 60.0 65.0 65.0 1,800 1,300 ND : 2,250 2,550 45.0 52.0 55.0 101,250 140,250 OK 1/ : 3 3 30.0 25.0 25.0 90 75 OR : 95 130 76.0 71.0 69.0 7,220 8,970 PA 1/ : 75 75 69.0 65.0 65.0 5,175 4,875 SC 1/ : 5 4 42.0 55.0 55.0 210 220 SD : 160 140 38.0 47.0 47.0 6,080 6,580 TX 1/ : 7 7 46.0 32.0 32.0 322 224 UT : 93 100 90.0 85.0 85.0 8,370 8,500 VA 1/ : 80 80 84.0 67.0 67.0 6,720 5,360 WA : 290 440 72.0 64.0 62.0 20,880 27,280 WI : 72 75 48.0 55.0 55.0 3,456 4,125 WY : 95 120 85.0 85.0 87.0 8,075 10,440 : US : 6,277 6,761 57.2 57.4 58.3 359,102 394,202 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast. All Wheat: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 1995 and Forecasted September 1, 1996 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production :---------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : 1996 : : : 1995 : 1996 : 1995 :-------------------: 1995 : 1996 : : : : Aug 1 : Sep 1 : : ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres -------- Bushels -------- -- 1,000 Bushels --- : AL 1/ : 80 80 36.0 45.0 45.0 2,880 3,600 AZ 1/ : 122 177 84.9 94.3 94.3 10,354 16,689 AR 1/ : 1,000 1,240 47.0 52.0 52.0 47,000 64,480 CA 1/ : 493 708 66.4 75.8 75.8 32,725 53,700 CO 1/ : 2,738 2,368 38.4 32.1 32.1 105,260 76,060 DE 1/ : 68 78 64.0 57.0 57.0 4,352 4,446 FL 1/ : 12 10 32.0 38.0 38.0 384 380 GA 1/ : 300 350 38.0 47.0 47.0 11,400 16,450 ID : 1,330 1,550 77.7 77.3 75.5 103,320 117,000 IL 1/ : 1,390 1,100 49.0 39.0 39.0 68,110 42,900 IN 1/ : 660 720 60.0 36.0 36.0 39,600 25,920 IA 1/ : 35 55 35.0 40.0 40.0 1,225 2,200 KS 1/ : 11,000 8,800 26.0 29.0 29.0 286,000 255,200 KY 1/ : 460 530 53.0 53.0 53.0 24,380 28,090 LA 1/ : 80 130 36.0 43.0 43.0 2,880 5,590 MD 1/ : 225 231 64.0 54.0 54.0 14,400 12,474 MI 1/ : 620 650 60.0 40.0 40.0 37,200 26,000 MN : 2,245 2,442 32.0 34.0 42.9 71,849 104,750 MS 1/ : 165 220 38.0 48.0 48.0 6,270 10,560 MO 1/ : 1,230 1,300 39.0 40.0 40.0 47,970 52,000 MT : 5,435 6,375 36.0 30.5 29.8 195,750 190,125 NE 1/ : 2,100 2,150 41.0 34.0 34.0 86,100 73,100 NV 1/ : 10 19 85.0 86.6 86.6 850 1,645 NJ 1/ : 32 38 57.0 50.0 50.0 1,824 1,900 NM 1/ : 150 125 22.0 33.0 33.0 3,300 4,125 NY 1/ : 125 150 55.0 52.0 52.0 6,875 7,800 NC 1/ : 640 590 44.0 45.0 45.0 28,160 26,550 ND : 11,114 12,455 27.0 29.8 31.6 300,078 393,395 OH 1/ : 1,210 1,350 61.0 41.0 41.0 73,810 55,350 OK 1/ : 5,200 4,900 21.0 19.0 19.0 109,200 93,100 OR 1/ : 939 975 67.8 69.7 69.7 63,678 67,950 PA 1/ : 185 190 55.0 55.0 55.0 10,175 10,450 SC 1/ : 280 270 32.0 48.0 48.0 8,960 12,960 SD : 2,752 3,874 33.0 31.4 33.7 90,736 130,520 TN 1/ : 340 430 47.0 44.0 44.0 15,980 18,920 TX 1/ : 2,800 2,900 27.0 24.0 24.0 75,600 69,600 UT 1/ : 166 173 53.9 44.0 44.0 8,950 7,620 VA 1/ : 275 280 64.0 55.0 55.0 17,600 15,400 WA : 2,595 2,745 59.3 66.5 66.5 153,770 182,670 WV 1/ : 12 11 52.0 52.0 52.0 624 572 WI 1/ : 143 135 56.4 48.9 48.9 8,070 6,600 WY 1/ : 215 244 36.7 28.1 28.1 7,890 6,849 : US : 60,971 63,118 35.8 35.6 36.4 2,185,539 2,295,690 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast. Durum Wheat: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 1995 and Forecasted September 1, 1996 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production :---------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : 1996 : : : 1995 : 1996 : 1995 :-------------------: 1995 : 1996 : : : : Aug 1 : Sep 1 : : ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres -------- Bushels -------- 1,000 Bushels : AZ 1/ : 99 159 86.0 95.0 95.0 8,514 15,105 CA 1/ : 68 138 100.0 100.0 100.0 6,800 13,800 MN : 12 10 30.0 35.0 43.0 360 430 MT : 265 225 30.0 25.0 25.0 7,950 5,625 ND : 2,880 2,900 27.0 29.0 27.0 77,760 78,300 SD : 32 24 28.0 28.0 30.0 896 720 : US : 3,356 3,456 30.5 34.6 33.0 102,280 113,980 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast. Other Spring Wheat: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 1995 and Forecasted September 1, 1996 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production :---------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : 1996 : : : 1995 : 1996 : 1995 :-------------------: 1995 : 1996 : : : : Aug 1 : Sep 1 : : ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres -------- Bushels -------- -- 1,000 Bushels -- : CO 1/ : 38 68 70.0 70.0 70.0 2,660 4,760 ID : 560 700 80.0 74.0 70.0 44,800 49,000 MN : 2,200 2,400 32.0 34.0 43 0 70,400 103,200 MT : 3,800 4,100 35.0 28.0 27.0 133,000 110,700 NV 1/ : 6 10 75.0 70.0 70.0 450 700 ND : 8,200 9,500 27.0 30.0 33.0 221,400 313,500 OR 1/ : 114 125 52.0 54.0 54.0 5,928 6,750 SD : 1,200 2,200 28.0 31.0 35.0 33,600 77,000 UT 1/ : 26 28 75.0 65.0 65.0 1,950 1,820 WA : 445 395 46.0 46.0 46.0 20,470 18,170 WI 1/ : 8 10 30.0 35.0 35.0 240 350 WY 1/ : 25 29 42.0 36.0 36.0 1,050 1,044 : US : 16,622 19,565 32.2 32.5 35.1 535,948 686,994 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast. Wheat: Production by Class, United States, 1994-1995 and Forecasted September 1, 1996 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Winter 2/ : Spring 2/ : :-------------------------------------------------------------: Year : Hard : Soft : : Hard : : : Total : Red : Red : White : Red : Durum : White : ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Bushels : 1994 : 971,161 434,208 256,574 515,315 96,747 46,976 2,320,981 1995 : 824,492 449,616 273,203 475,328 102,280 60,620 2,185,539 1996 : 766,293 426,906 301,517 625,031 113,980 61,963 2,295,690 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Wheat class estimates are based on the latest varietal acreage survey data available. The previous end-of-season class percentages are used through the forecast season, unless otherwise noted. 2/ Based on Washington's 1996 Wheat Variety survey, the percent of White Wheat has shifted from 95 percent White Winter in 1995 to 90 percent. White Spring changed from 75 percent to 67 percent. Rice: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 1995 and Forecasted September 1, 1996 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production :---------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : 1996 : : : 1995 : 1996 : 1995 :-------------------: 1995 : 1996 : : : : Aug 1 : Sep 1 : : ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :-- 1,000 Acres -- ------- Pounds ------- --- 1,000 Cwt --- : AR : 1,340 1,240 5,450.0 5,500.0 5,600.0 73,020 69,500 CA : 465 518 7,600.0 7,900.0 7,900.0 35,352 40,922 LA : 570 500 4,600.0 5,000.0 5,000.0 26,209 25,000 MS : 288 218 5,400.0 5,700.0 5,800.0 15,552 12,644 MO 1/ : 112 105 5,300.0 5,000.0 5,000.0 5,936 5,250 TX : 318 298 5,600.0 5,700.0 6,100.0 17,802 18,178 : US : 3,093 2,879 5,621.0 5,863.0 5,957.0 173,871 171,494 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast. Rice: Production by Class, United States, 1994-95 and Forecasted September 1, 1996 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Year : Long Grain : Medium Grain : Short Grain : All ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : 1994 : 133,445 63,390 944 197,779 1995 : 121,730 51,241 900 173,871 1996 1/ : 112,637 57,674 1,183 171,494 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Indicated September 1, 1996, rice class forecasts are based on a five-year average of class percentages. The class percentages are adjusted as data become available through the growing season. Soybeans for Beans: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 1995 and Forecasted September 1, 1996 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production :---------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : 1996 : : : 1995 : 1996 : 1995 :-------------------: 1995 : 1996 : : : : Aug 1 : Sep 1 : : ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :-- 1,000 Acres -- ------- Bushels ------- -- 1,000 Bushels -- : AL : 225 315 24.0 28.0 28.0 5,400 8,820 AR : 3,400 3,600 25.5 30.0 30.0 86,700 108,000 DE : 233 215 20.0 30.0 30.0 4,660 6,450 FL 1/ : 28 33 26.0 30.0 30.0 728 990 GA : 310 390 27.0 26.0 26.0 8,370 10,140 IL : 9,700 9,850 38.5 38.0 37.0 373,450 364,450 IN : 4,980 5,360 39.0 35.0 35.0 194,220 187,600 IA : 9,260 9,450 43.0 45.0 44.0 398,180 415,800 KS : 2,050 2,000 25.0 30.0 34.0 51,250 68,000 KY : 1,150 1,180 36.0 36.0 36.0 41,400 42,480 LA : 1,040 1,050 25.0 31.0 31.0 26,000 32,550 MD : 510 480 23.0 33.0 33.0 11,730 15,840 MI : 1,490 1,640 40.0 34.0 32.0 59,600 52,480 MN : 5,800 5,900 40.0 38.0 36.0 232,000 212,400 MS : 1,800 1,750 21.0 27.0 27.0 37,800 47,250 MO : 4,500 4,050 29.0 34.0 35.0 130,500 141,750 NE : 3,060 3,010 32.5 42.0 44.0 99,450 132,440 NJ 1/ : 138 127 22.0 35.0 35.0 3,036 4,445 NC : 1,070 1,200 25.0 31.0 31.0 26,750 37,200 ND : 640 820 29.0 30.0 30.0 18,560 24,600 OH : 4,030 4,490 38.0 35.0 32.0 153,140 143,680 OK 1/ : 275 285 20.0 24.0 24.0 5,500 6,840 PA 1/ : 315 285 30.0 44.0 44.0 9,450 12,540 SC : 530 540 24.0 25.0 26.0 12,720 14,040 SD : 2,500 2,650 30.0 32.0 32.0 75,000 84,800 TN : 1,080 1,150 32.0 32.0 32.0 34,560 36,800 TX : 240 270 25.0 26.0 29.0 6,000 7,830 VA : 470 480 24.0 32.0 32.0 11,280 15,360 WI : 800 870 43.0 41.0 39.0 34,400 33,930 : US : 61,624 63,440 34.9 36.2 35.8 2,151,834 2,269,505 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast. Peanuts: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 1995 and Forecasted September 1, 1996 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production :---------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : 1996 : : : 1995 : 1996 : 1995 :-------------------: 1995 : 1996 : : : : Aug 1 : Sep 1 : : ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :-- 1,000 Acres -- ------- Pounds ------- --- 1,000 Pounds --- : AL : 212.0 209.0 2,280 2,100 2,100 483,360 438,900 FL : 81.0 78.0 2,390 2,400 2,400 193,590 187,200 GA : 592.0 533.0 2,390 2,550 2,550 1,414,880 1,359,150 NM : 20.0 19.5 2,150 2,400 2,400 43,000 46,800 NC : 144.0 126.0 2,410 2,700 2,700 347,040 340,200 OK : 98.0 84.0 2,060 2,400 2,400 201,880 201,600 SC : 11.0 10.0 2,800 2,500 2,600 30,800 26,000 TX : 270.0 275.0 2,000 1,900 2,000 540,000 550,000 VA : 89.0 76.0 2,325 2,800 2,800 206,925 212,800 : US : 1,517.0 1,410.5 2,282 2,364 2,384 3,461,475 3,362,650 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Estimates comprised of quota and non-quota peanuts. Cottonseed: Production, United States, 1994-95 and Forecasted September 1, 1996 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Production State :-------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1994 : 1995 : 1996 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : 1,000 Tons : US : 7,603.9 6,848.7 6,846.4 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Based on a 3-year average lint-seed ratio. Cotton: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Type, State, and United States, 1995 and Forecasted September 1, 1996 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production 1/ Type :-------------------------------------------------------------------- and : : : : 1996 : : State : 1995 : 1996 : 1995 :------------------: 1995 : 1996 : : : : Aug 1 : Sep 1 : : ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -- 1,000 Acres -- --- Pounds --- ------ 1,000 Bales 2/ ------ : Upland : AL : 578.0 556.0 409 600 639 492.0 740.0 AZ : 364.0 324.0 1,046 1,230 1,200 793.0 810.0 AR : 1,110.0 990.0 635 824 742 1,468.0 1,530.0 CA : 1,165.0 995.0 953 1,327 1,134 2,312.0 2,350.0 FL 3/ : 109.0 100.0 472 672 672 107.2 140.0 GA : 1,490.0 1,375.0 625 698 698 1,941.0 2,000.0 KS 3/ : 2.6 1.7 185 311 311 1.0 1.1 LA : 1,075.0 940.0 614 766 705 1,375.0 1,380.0 MS : 1,420.0 1,030.0 622 792 764 1,841.0 1,640.0 MO : 453.0 405.0 544 640 699 513.0 590.0 NM : 56.0 54.0 609 667 667 71.0 75.0 NC : 800.0 735.0 479 679 679 798.0 1,040.0 OK : 315.0 240.0 187 340 340 123.0 170.0 SC : 342.0 265.0 528 743 743 376.0 410.0 TN : 660.0 520.0 527 600 600 724.0 650.0 TX : 5,750.0 4,100.0 372 427 427 4,460.0 3,650.0 VA 3/ : 106.0 102.0 620 706 706 137.0 150.0 : US : 15,795.6 12,732.7 533 679 653 17,532.2 17,326.1 : Amer-Pima : AZ : 48.1 39.9 720 842 818 72.2 68.0 CA : 115.0 165.0 937 1,207 1,207 224.5 415.0 NM : 15.0 17.0 605 678 678 18.9 24.0 TX : 33.0 40.0 756 804 804 52.0 67.0 : US : 211.1 261.9 836 1,056 1,052 367.6 574.0 : All : AL : 578.0 556.0 409 600 639 492.0 740.0 AZ : 412.1 363.9 1,008 1,187 1,158 865.2 878.0 AR : 1,110.0 990.0 635 824 742 1,468.0 1,530.0 CA : 1,280.0 1,160.0 951 1,310 1,144 2,536.5 2,765.0 FL 3/ : 109.0 100.0 472 672 672 107.2 140.0 GA : 1,490.0 1,375.0 625 698 698 1,941.0 2,000.0 KS 3/ : 2.6 1.7 185 311 311 1.0 1.1 LA : 1,075.0 940.0 614 766 705 1,375.0 1,380.0 MS : 1,420.0 1,030.0 622 792 764 1,841.0 1,640.0 MO : 453.0 405.0 544 640 699 513.0 590.0 NM : 71.0 71.0 608 669 669 89.9 99.0 NC : 800.0 735.0 479 679 679 798.0 1,040.0 OK : 315.0 240.0 187 340 340 123.0 170.0 SC : 342.0 265.0 528 743 743 376.0 410.0 TN : 660.0 520.0 527 600 600 724.0 650.0 TX : 5,783.0 4,140.0 375 431 431 4,512.0 3,717.0 VA 3/ : 106.0 102.0 620 706 706 137.0 150.0 : US : 16,006.7 12,994.6 537 686 661 17,899.8 17,900.1 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Production ginned and to be ginned. 2/ 480-lb net weight bales. 3/ Estimates for current year carried forward from previous forecast. Potatoes: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production, by Seasonal Group, State, and United States, 1994-96 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Seasonal : Area Harvested : Yield : Production Group :--------------------------------------------------------------- and : : : : : : : State : 1995 : 1996 : 1995 : 1996 : 1994 : 1995 : 1996 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : - 1,000 Acres - ---- Cwt ---- ------ 1,000 Cwt ------ Winter 1/ : CA : 5.0 5.7 260 250 968 1,300 1,425 FL : 6.9 7.8 170 190 1,404 1,173 1,482 Total : 11.9 13.5 208 215 2,372 2,473 2,907 : Spring 1/ : AL : 2.5 1.9 160 160 438 400 304 AZ : 6.5 9.0 270 275 1,670 1,755 2,475 CA : 17.8 20.1 350 375 7,790 6,230 7,538 FL : 36.0 35.5 218 195 8,588 7,830 6,940 Hastings : 27.0 27.5 220 200 6,380 5,940 5,500 Other FL : 9.0 8.0 210 180 2,208 1,890 1,440 NC : 16.5 16.2 185 175 3,060 3,053 2,835 TX : 5.0 6.5 185 170 1,100 925 1,105 Total : 84.3 89.2 240 238 22,646 20,193 21,197 : Summer 2/ : AL : 6.7 6.7 170 150 1,190 1,139 1,005 CA : 5.5 5.8 320 360 2,109 1,760 2,088 CO : 9.1 9.7 305 320 3,069 2,776 3,104 DE : 5.9 5.9 250 250 816 1,475 1,475 IL : 5.5 6.9 270 260 1,450 1,485 1,794 IA 1/ : 1.6 1.5 150 200 328 240 300 MD 1/ : 1.5 1.9 240 200 250 360 380 MO : 6.9 7.0 230 230 1,734 1,587 1,610 NE : 4.4 5.5 285 300 1,408 1,254 1,650 NJ : 2.6 2.5 270 240 588 702 600 NM : 4.2 3.9 320 320 1,088 1,344 1,248 NC 1/ : 1.3 1.2 95 90 126 124 108 TX : 7.0 9.5 235 240 1,800 1,645 2,280 VA : 8.5 8.3 240 175 1,425 2,040 1,453 Total : 70.7 76.3 254 250 17,381 17,931 19,095 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ See footnotes at end of table. --continued Potatoes: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production, by Seasonal Group, State, and United States, 1993-95 (continued) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Seasonal : Area Harvested : Yield : Production Group :--------------------------------------------------------------- and : : : : : : : State : 1995 : 1996 : 1995 : 1996 : 1994 : 1995 : 1996 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : - 1,000 Acres - ---- Cwt ---- ------ 1,000 Cwt ------ : Fall 1/ 2/ 3/ : CA : 13.0 11.5 410 5,600 5,330 CO : 76.8 77.7 310 25,795 23,808 ID : 398.0 408.0 333 138,801 132,657 10 SW Co : 27.0 28.0 420 12,690 11,340 Other ID : 371.0 380.0 327 126,111 121,317 IN : 4.6 4.7 260 1,148 1,196 ME : 78.0 76.0 220 18,375 17,160 MA : 3.3 2.8 260 744 858 MI 4/ : 54.5 51.0 300 14,040 16,350 MN 4/ : 77.0 82.0 270 20,035 20,790 MT : 9.8 10.0 300 3,200 2,940 NE : 11.5 12.4 320 3,996 3,680 NV : 7.6 8.0 365 2,760 2,774 NM : 6.3 6.2 380 3,000 2,394 NY : 28.5 28.5 270 7,805 7,695 ND : 121.0 130.0 210 28,200 25,410 OH : 5.4 5.3 260 1,348 1,404 OR : 53.2 58.5 466 27,514 24,788 Malheur : 12.8 12.5 390 5,074 4,992 Other OR : 40.4 46.0 490 22,440 19,796 PA : 17.0 16.5 240 3,780 4,080 RI : 0.9 0.7 270 248 243 SD : 5.2 5.7 190 1,540 988 UT : 5.1 4.2 240 1,590 1,224 WA : 147.0 163.0 550 88,920 80,850 WI : 80.0 81.0 325 25,740 26,000 WY : 1.5 0.9 260 476 390 Total : 1,205.2 1,244.6 334 424,655 403,009 : US : 1,372.1 1,423.6 323 467,054 443,606 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast. 2/ 1995 revised. 3/ Estimates for 1996 yield and production for fall potatoes will be published November 12, 1996. 4/ Summer potatoes included with fall in 1994 for comparative purposes. Potatoes: Area Planted by Seasonal Group, State, and United States, 1995-96 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Seasonal Group : : :: Seasonal Group : : and State : 1995 : 1996 :: and State : 1995 : 1996 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : 1,000 Acres :: : 1,000 Acres : :: : Winter 1/ : :: Fall 1/ 2/ : CA : 5.0 5.7 :: CA : 13.0 11.5 FL : 8.3 7.9 :: CO : 77.0 78.0 Total : 13.3 13.6 :: ID : 400.0 410.0 : :: 10 SW Co : 27.0 28.0 Spring 1/ : :: Other ID : 373.0 382.0 AL : 2.6 2.0 :: IN : 5.0 5.2 AZ : 6.5 9.0 :: ME : 78.0 77.0 CA : 18.0 20.1 :: MA : 3.3 2.8 FL : 38.5 37.5 :: MI : 55.0 52.0 Hastings : 28.5 28.0 :: MN : 83.0 85.0 Other FL : 10.0 9.5 :: MT : 9.8 10.1 NC : 17.5 16.5 :: NE : 12.0 12.5 TX : 5.2 6.8 :: NV : 7.6 8.0 Total : 88.3 91.9 :: NM : 6.3 6.2 : :: NY : 29.0 29.0 Summer 2/ : :: ND : 125.0 134.0 AL : 6.8 6.8 :: OH : 5.5 5.4 CA : 5.5 5.8 :: OR : 54.0 59.5 CO : 9.3 9.9 :: Malheur : 13.0 12.7 DE : 6.0 6.0 :: Other OR : 41.0 46.8 IL : 5.6 7.2 :: PA : 18.0 17.0 IA 1/ : 1.6 1.5 :: RI : 0.9 0.8 MD 1/ : 1.5 2.0 :: SD : 6.0 6.0 MO : 7.1 7.8 :: UT : 5.2 4.3 NE : 4.5 5.6 :: WA : 147.0 163.0 NJ : 2.7 2.6 :: WI : 82.0 83.0 NM : 4.2 3.9 :: WY : 1.5 0.9 NC 1/ : 1.4 1.3 :: : TX : 7.3 10.5 :: Total : 1,224.1 1,261.2 VA : 9.0 9.0 :: : Total : 72.5 79.9 :: US : 1,398.2 1,446.6 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast. 2/ 1995 revised. Tobacco: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 1994-95 and Forecasted September 1, 1996 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production State:------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1995 : 1996 : 1995 : 1996 : 1994 : 1995 : 1996 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : --- 1,000 Acres -- ---- Pounds --- -------- 1,000 Pounds -------- : CT 1/ : 1,990 2,100 1,771 1,650 2,682 3,524 3,466 FL : 7,200 7,300 2,455 2,530 16,575 17,676 18,469 GA : 42,000 46,000 2,000 2,250 80,660 84,000 103,500 IN : 6,700 7,600 2,030 2,000 15,265 13,601 15,200 KY : 166,200 205,900 1,977 2,179 453,687 328,581 448,630 MD : 8,500 8,000 1,350 1,500 12,750 11,475 12,000 MA 1/ : 500 710 1,784 1,627 792 892 1,155 MO 1/ : 2,700 2,900 2,025 2,200 8,015 5,468 6,380 NC : 261,100 281,300 1,856 2,135 599,853 484,599 600,700 OH : 7,700 8,300 1,950 1,800 18,360 15,015 14,940 PA : 7,900 7,800 1,985 2,010 18,360 15,685 15,680 SC : 50,000 50,000 2,100 2,300 108,100 105,000 115,000 TN : 51,690 56,550 1,797 2,060 132,289 92,907 116,500 VA : 44,170 46,170 1,840 2,168 106,092 81,269 100,099 WV 1/: 2,000 2,000 1,300 1,850 3,550 2,600 3,700 WI : 2,760 2,550 2,247 2,012 5,866 6,202 5,130 : US : 663,110 735,180 1,913 2,150 1,582,896 1,268,494 1,580,549 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast. Tobacco: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Class, Type, State, and United States, 1995 and Forecasted September 1, 1996 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production Class and Type :--------------------------------------------------------- : 1995 : 1996 : 1995 : 1996 : 1995 : 1996 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----- Acres ----- --- Pounds -- -- 1,000 Pounds -- : Class 1, Flue-cured : Type 11, Old Belts : NC : 68,000 72,000 1,920 2,200 130,560 158,400 VA : 34,000 35,000 1,935 2,200 65,790 77,000 US : 102,000 107,000 1,925 2,200 196,350 235,400 Type 12, Eastern NC : Belt : NC : 151,000 165,000 1,860 2,100 280,860 346,500 Type 13, NC Border & : SC Belt : NC : 34,000 36,000 1,845 2,200 62,730 79,200 SC : 50,000 50,000 2,100 2,300 105,000 115,000 US : 84,000 86,000 1,997 2,258 167,730 194,200 Type 14, GA-FL Belt : FL : 7,200 7,300 2,455 2,530 17,676 18,469 GA : 42,000 46,000 2,000 2,250 84,000 103,500 US : 49,200 53,300 2,067 2,288 101,676 121,969 Total 11-14 : 386,200 411,300 1,933 2,183 746,616 898,069 Class 2, Fire-cured : Type 21, VA Belt : VA : 1,100 1,100 1,400 1,800 1,540 1,980 Type 22, Eastern : District : KY : 3,900 3,900 2,370 2,700 9,243 10,530 TN : 7,600 7,500 2,285 2,400 17,366 18,000 US : 11,500 11,400 2,314 2,503 26,609 28,530 Type 23, Western : District : KY : 3,700 3,700 2,600 2,800 9,620 10,360 TN : 580 590 2,450 2,600 1,421 1,534 US : 4,280 4,290 2,580 2,772 11,041 11,894 Total 21-23 : 16,880 16,790 2,322 2,526 39,190 42,404 Class 3, Air-cured : Class 3A, Light : Air-cured : Type 31, Burley : IN : 6,700 7,600 2,030 2,000 13,601 15,200 KY : 155,000 195,000 1,950 2,150 302,250 419,250 MO 1/ : 2,700 2,900 2,025 2,200 5,468 6,380 NC : 8,100 8,300 1,290 2,000 10,449 16,600 OH : 7,700 8,300 1,950 1,800 15,015 14,940 TN : 43,000 48,000 1,700 2,000 73,100 96,000 VA : 9,000 10,000 1,540 2,100 13,860 21,000 WV 1/ : 2,000 2,000 1,300 1,850 2,600 3,700 US : 234,200 282,100 1,863 2,102 436,343 593,070 Type 32, Southern MD : Belt : MD : 8,500 8,000 1,350 1,500 11,475 12,000 PA : 3,400 3,500 1,900 1,900 6,460 6,650 US : 11,900 11,500 1,507 1,622 17,935 18,650 Total 31-32 : 246,100 293,600 1,846 2,084 454,278 611,720 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --continued Tobacco: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Class, Type, State, and United States, 1995 and Forecasted September 1, 1996 (continued) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production Class and Type :--------------------------------------------------------- : 1995 : 1996 : 1995 : 1996 : 1995 : 1996 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----- Acres ----- --- Pounds -- --- 1,000 Pounds --- : Class 3, Air-cured : Class 3B, Dark : Air-cured : Type 35, One Sucker : Belt : KY : 2,300 2,100 2,060 2,500 4,738 5,250 TN : 510 460 2,000 2,100 1,020 966 US : 2,810 2,560 2,049 2,428 5,758 6,216 Type 36, Green River : Belt : KY : 1,300 1,200 2,100 2,700 2,730 3,240 Type 37, VA Sun-cured: Belt : VA : 70 70 1,125 1,700 79 119 Total 35-37 : 4,180 3,830 2,050 2,500 8,567 9,575 Class 4, Cigar Filler : Type 41, PA Seedleaf : PA : 4,500 4,300 2,050 2,100 9,225 9,030 Class 5, Cigar Binder : Class 5A, CT Valley : Binder : Type 51, CT Valley : Broadleaf : CT 1/ : 1,000 1,080 1,980 1,840 1,980 1,987 MA 1/ : 240 320 1,920 1,840 461 589 US 1/ : 1,240 1,400 1,969 1,840 2,441 2,576 Class 5B, WI Binder : Type 54, Southern WI: WI : 1,900 1,800 2,370 2,100 4,503 3,780 Type 55, Northern WI: WI : 860 750 1,975 1,800 1,699 1,350 Total 54-55 : 2,760 2,550 2,247 2,012 6,202 5,130 Total 51-55 : 4,000 3,950 2,161 1,951 8,643 7,706 Class 6, Cigar Wrapper: Type 61, CT Valley : Shade-grown : CT 1/ : 990 1,020 1,560 1,450 1,544 1,479 MA 1/ : 260 390 1,655 1,450 431 566 US 1/ : 1,250 1,410 1,580 1,450 1,975 2,045 All Cigar Types : Total 41-61 : 9,750 9,660 2,035 1,944 19,843 18,781 : All Tobacco : 663,110 735,180 1,913 2,150 1,268,494 1,580,549 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast. Citrus Fruits: Utilized Production by Crop, State, and United States, 1995-96 and Forecasted 1997 on September 1, 1996 1/ 2/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Utilized Production : Utilized Production : Boxes : Ton Equivalent Crop and State :----------------------------------------------------------- : 1994-95 : 1995-96 : 1996-97 : 1994-95 : 1995-96 : 1996-97 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----- 1,000 Boxes 3/ ----- ------- 1,000 Tons ------- Oranges : Early Mid & : Navel 4/ : AZ : 400 700 15 27 CA : 35,000 38,000 37,000 1,313 1,426 1,388 FL : 119,700 121,200 5,387 5,454 TX : 950 830 40 35 US : 156,050 160,730 6,755 6,942 Valencia : AZ : 650 950 24 36 CA : 21,000 28,000 788 1,051 FL : 85,800 82,000 3,861 3,690 TX : 105 110 4 4 US : 107,555 111,060 4,677 4,781 All : AZ : 1,050 1,650 39 63 CA : 56,000 66,000 2,101 2,477 FL : 205,500 203,200 9,248 9,144 TX : 1,055 940 44 39 US : 263,605 271,790 11,432 11,723 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Citrus Fruit Footnotes 1/ The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with year harvest is completed. 2/ 1994-95 and 1995-96 revised. Revised grapefruit and other citrus fruit totals will be released September 23 in "Citrus Fruits, 1996 Summary". 3/ Net lbs. per box: oranges-AZ & CA-75, FL-90, TX-85. 4/ Navel and miscellaneous varieties in AZ and CA. Early and mid-season varieties in FL and TX, including small quantities of tangerines in TX. Sugarbeets: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 1994-95 and Forecasted September 1, 1996 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production State :---------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1995 : 1996 : 1995 : 1996 : 1994 : 1995 : 1996 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : --- 1,000 Acres -- --- Tons --- -------- 1,000 Tons -------- : CA : 115.0 94.0 28.0 28.0 3,948 3,220 2,632 CO : 41.1 51.7 17.4 21.7 946 715 1,122 ID : 197.0 184.0 24.0 25.0 5,608 4,728 4,600 MI : 188.0 130.0 15.8 15.0 3,029 2,970 1,950 MN : 416.0 440.0 17.7 17.3 8,467 7,363 7,612 MT : 55.5 57.3 21.5 22.5 1,307 1,193 1,289 NE : 72.3 51.0 16.4 18.1 1,504 1,186 923 NM : .9 26.7 24 ND : 204.2 222.0 19.2 17.3 4,272 3,929 3,831 OH : 15.3 4.2 15.0 16.9 264 230 71 OR : 17.8 16.3 22.9 25.5 456 408 416 TX : 19.3 13.1 18.2 22.0 497 351 288 WA : 13.0 37.2 483 WY : 61.5 56.5 20.3 20.5 1,103 1,249 1,158 : Oth : Sts 2/ : 14.1 34.3 452 484 : US : 1,417.1 1,334.0 19.8 19.8 31,853 28,026 26,399 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Relates to year of intended harvest except for overwintered spring planted beets in CA. 2/ Includes NM and WA prior to 1996. Sugarcane for Sugar and Seed: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 1994-95 and Forecasted September 1, 1996 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production 1/ State:------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1995 : 1996 : 1995 : 1996 : 1994 : 1995 : 1996 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres ---- Tons ---- -------- 1,000 Tons -------- : FL : 437.0 437.0 34.6 34.0 14,937 15,122 14,858 HI : 53.0 43.0 76.8 78.0 5,364 4,070 3,354 LA : 400.0 350.0 25.6 23.0 9,272 10,240 8,050 TX : 42.3 39.0 32.2 26.0 1,356 1,364 1,014 : US : 932.3 869.0 33.0 31.4 30,929 30,796 27,276 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Net tons. Papayas: Area and Fresh Production, by Month, Hawaii, 1995-96 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Area : Fresh Production :------------------------------------------------------------------ Month : Total in Crop : Harvested : : :----------------------------------------: 1995 : 1996 : 1995 : 1996 : 1995 : 1996 : : ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : --------------- Acres -------------- -- 1,000 Pounds -- : July : 3,785 3,790 2,380 2,635 3,415 2,925 August : 3,770 3,835 2,335 2,805 3,505 2,940 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Nuts: Utilized Production by Crop and State, 1994-95 and Forecasted September 1, 1996 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Utilized Production Crop and State :----------------------------------------------------------- : 1994 : 1995 : 1996 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Tons (In-shell Basis) : Hazelnuts : OR : 21,000 38,800 19,900 WA : 100 200 100 Total : 21,100 39,000 20,000 : Walnuts : CA : 232,000 234,000 220,000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast. Pecans: Utilized Production by Crop, State, and United States, 1994-95 and Forecasted September 1, 1996 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Utilized Production Crop and State :----------------------------------------------------- : 1994 : 1995 : 1996 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Pounds Improved Varieties 1/ : AL : 2,000 7,000 10,000 AZ 2/ : 18,000 AR : 600 900 900 CA : 1,500 2,900 2,100 FL : 400 600 1,500 GA : 50,000 62,000 85,000 LA : 1,500 2,000 3,000 MS : 1,200 1,400 NM : 24,000 45,000 30,000 NC : 2,200 1,800 2,000 OK : 1,300 2,500 2,500 SC : 5,400 2,400 4,000 TX : 30,000 47,000 30,000 US : 118,900 175,300 190,400 Native & Seedling : AL : 2,000 3,000 5,000 AR : 900 700 500 FL : 1,500 500 1,000 GA : 15,000 13,000 15,000 KS : 3,600 500 400 LA : 9,500 11,000 12,000 MS : 1,000 1,100 NC : 2,800 1,500 800 OK : 10,700 16,500 7,500 SC : 3,600 1,100 1,000 TX : 10,000 28,000 10,000 US : 59,600 76,800 54,300 All Pecans : AL : 4,000 10,000 15,000 AZ 2/ : 18,000 AR : 1,500 1,600 1,400 CA : 1,500 2,900 2,100 FL : 1,900 1,100 2,500 GA : 65,000 75,000 100,000 KS : 3,600 500 400 LA : 11,000 13,000 15,000 MS : 2,200 2,500 NM : 24,000 45,000 30,000 NC : 5,000 3,300 2,800 OK : 12,000 19,000 10,000 SC : 9,000 3,500 5,000 TX : 40,000 75,000 40,000 : Oth Sts 3/ : 20,500 15,900 : US : 199,000 268,000 244,700 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Budded, grafted, or topworked varieties. 2/ Estimates published separately beginning in 1996. 3/ AZ, MS, MO, and TN in 1994. AZ, MO, and TN in 1995. No breakdown between varieties available. Forecasts discontinued in 1996 for MO and TN. Corn: Plant Population The National Agricultural Statistics Service is conducting corn objective yield surveys in 7 States during 1996. Randomly selected plots in corn for grain fields are visited monthly from August through harvest to obtain specific counts and measurements. Data in this table are rounded actual counts from this survey and are not official estimates of the Agricultural Statistics Board, but are intended to show trends in corn production practices. Corn for Grain: Plant population per acre, Selected States, 1992-96 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : and : 1992 : 1993 : 1994 : 1995 : 1996 Month : : : : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number of Plants : IL Sep : 23,200 23,400 23,300 24,000 24,350 Nov : 23,000 23,300 23,200 23,650 : IN Sep : 23,400 23,300 22,800 23,900 23,550 Nov : 23,200 23,200 22,850 24,000 : IA Sep : 23,300 23,700 24,000 24,800 25,000 Nov : 23,300 23,500 23,950 24,650 : MI 2/ Sep : 21,600 22,800 22,200 23,500 Nov : 21,600 22,800 21,800 22,850 : MN Sep : 24,700 25,000 26,100 26,400 26,500 Nov : 24,600 25,100 26,000 26,350 : MO 2/ Sep : 18,900 19,300 19,600 20,400 Nov : 18,800 19,300 19,650 20,400 : NE Sep : 22,000 22,600 21,900 22,600 22,750 Nov : 21,900 22,200 21,700 22,500 : OH Sep : 23,500 23,200 22,800 23,400 23,100 Nov : 23,300 23,300 22,900 23,300 : SD 2/ Sep : 17,600 17,400 19,100 19,900 Nov : 17,800 17,600 19,250 20,000 : WI Sep : 23,200 23,500 24,100 24,600 24,800 Nov : 22,800 23,600 23,600 24,000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on stalk counts in plots selected for objective yield samples. 2/ No longer included in the objective yield program beginning with 1996. All Spring Wheat: Head Population The National Agricultural Statistics Service is conducting spring wheat objective yield surveys in 3 States during 1996; North Dakota also does Durum wheat. Randomly selected plots in wheat fields are visited from August through harvest to obtain specific counts and measurements. Data in this table are derived actual field counts and are not official estimates of the Agricultural Statistics Board. All Spring Wheat: Heads per Square Foot, Selected States, 1992-96 1/ 2/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop and State : 1992 : 1993 : 1994 : 1995 : 1996 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Other Spring: : Number : MN Sep : 48.8 44.3 44.3 45.6 41.6 Final : 48.4 45.3 43.9 45.6 : MT Sep : 29.2 29.2 27.3 30.4 25.2 Final : 29.3 29.1 27.3 30.4 : ND Sep : 42.1 41.9 39.4 39.5 36.0 Final : 42.0 42.7 39.4 39.5 : SD Sep 3/ : 44.3 36.6 29.2 34.4 Final : 45.5 36.6 29.2 34.4 : Durum: : : ND Sep : 27.6 27.5 25.9 24.8 24.7 Final : 27.6 26.9 25.7 24.8 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on the number of heads counted in plots selected for the objective yield survey. 2/ Final head counts will be published in January. 3/ No longer included in the objective yield program beginning with 1996. Soybeans: Pods with Beans The National Agricultural Statistics Service is conducting soybean objective yield surveys in 8 States during 1996. Plots are randomly selected from a scientifically drawn sample of soybean fields, which are visited monthly from August through harvest, to obtain specific counts and measurements. Sample data and the derived percentages from the surveys presented in the following table are not Agricultural Statistics Board official estimates but are intended to show trends in soybean production practices. Soybeans: Pods with Beans per 18 Square Feet Selected States, 1992 - 1996 1/ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : and : 1992 : 1993 : 1994 : 1995 : 1996 Month : : : : : --------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number of Pods : AR Sept 2/ : NA NA NA NA NA Nov : 1,713 1,399 1,782 1,755 Final : 1,705 1,327 1,673 1,609 : IL Sept : 1,698 1,937 1,745 1,816 1,508 Nov : 1,503 1,712 1,639 1,764 Final : 1,502 1,701 1,636 1,764 : IN Sept : 1,623 1,938 1,850 1,755 1,439 Nov : 1,543 1,703 1,574 1,677 Final : 1,543 1,703 1,570 1,677 : IA Sept : 1,501 1,336 1,887 1,739 1,587 Nov : 1,464 1,340 1,820 1,611 Final : 1,473 1,340 1,820 1,616 : MN Sept : 1,431 1,037 1,678 1,613 1,492 Nov : 1,367 1,106 1,496 1,501 Final : 1,367 1,105 1,496 1,501 : MO Sept : 1,682 1,493 1,470 895 1,771 Nov : 1,607 1,727 1,643 1,462 Final : 1,602 1,699 1,659 1,469 : NE Sept : 1,517 1,469 1,676 1,404 1,642 Nov : 1,504 1,414 1,826 1,420 Final : 1,509 1,445 1,826 1,420 : OH Sept : 1,462 1,617 1,950 1,790 1,429 Nov : 1,394 1,361 1,643 1,647 Final : 1,404 1,361 1,643 1,650 ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on pod counts in plots selected for objective yield samples. 2/ Not available due to plant immaturity. Cotton: Cumulative Boll Counts The National Agricultural Statistics Service conducts cotton objective yield surveys in 5 States which account for about 65 percent of the U.S. Upland cotton production. Plots are randomly selected from a scientific sample of cotton fields. Two sample plots per field are visited monthly from about August 1 through harvest to obtain specific counts and measurements. The boll counts shown below represent actual data collected from sampled fields and are not official estimates of NASS. Cotton: Cumulative Boll Counts, September 1992-1996, and November and Final, 1992-1995 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Arkansas : California Year :------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Sep. : Nov. : Final : Sep. : Nov. : Final -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number 1992 : 1,076 822 817 839 841 819 1993 : 859 769 753 930 839 839 1994 : 1,019 813 812 828 805 806 1995 : 850 689 689 751 682 680 1996 : 857 707 :------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Louisiana : Mississippi :------------------------------------------------------------------------ : 1992 : 882 858 875 896 713 708 1993 : 746 662 661 697 619 608 1994 : 808 747 748 864 761 760 1995 : 679 615 615 682 607 607 1996 : 659 816 :------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Texas :------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Sep : Nov : Final :------------------------------------------------------------------------ : 1992 : 432 484 489 1993 : 505 480 489 1994 : 515 484 486 1995 : 423 409 414 1996 : 387 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes small bolls (less than one inch in diameter), large unopened bolls (at least one inch in diameter), open bolls, partially opened bolls, and burrs, per 40 feet of row. In November, excludes small bolls. HDR2012000110010911960830NARRATIVE Crop Moisture Depicts short term (up to about 4 weeks) abnormal dryness or wetness affecting Agriculture, responds rapidly, can change considerably week to week, and indicates normal conditions at the beginning and end of the growing season. Uses...applicable in measuring the short term, week-to-week, status of dryness or wetness affecting warm season crops and field operations. Limitations...may not be applicable to germination and shallow rooted crops which are unable to extract the deep or subsoil moisture from a 5-foot profile, or for cool season crops growing when temperatures are averaging below about 55 degrees fahrenheit. It is not generally indicative of the long term (months, years) drought or wet spells which are depicted by the drought severity index. Drought Severity Drought severity index (Palmer): Depicts prolonged (months, years) abnormal dryness or wetness; responds slowly; changes little from week to week; and reflects long term moisture runoff, recharge, and deep percolation, as well as evaportranspiration. Uses...applicable in measuring disruptive effects of prolonged dryness or wetness on water sensitive economies; designating disaster areas of drought or wetness and reflecting the general long-term status of water supplies in aquifers, reservoirs, and streams. Limitations...is not generally indicative of short-term (few weeks) status of drought or wetness such as frequently affects crops and field operations (this is indicated by the crop moisture index). August Weather Summary: Crop development accelerated across the Midwest in response to consistent warmth (near normal temperatures). Much drier weather prevailed, however, across the eastern half of the Corn Belt, with many locations receiving less than one-half of normal rainfall. Farther south, a meandering frontal boundary sparked cloudy, showery weather across the South. Along the tail of the front, tropical moisture pooled, significantly easing Texas' 11-month drought. In contrast, dry conditions persisted across the West, where heat, wind, and lightning strikes continued to fuel the worst wildfire season since 1969 (by month's end). Monthly rainfall averaged less than 50 percent (%) of normal in many areas from the upper and middle Mississippi Valley eastward into New England. Paducah, KY recorded only 0.11 inches during the month, their driest August on record. In Ohio, Dayton's total of 0.03 inches represented their lowest total for any month, formerly set in March 1910 (0.05 inches). Only 0.06 inches fell during the month in Concord, NH. In contrast, monthly totals were more than 200% of normal across a broad area of the central and southern Plains. In southern Texas, August rainfall accounted for 62% of the year-to-date total in Corpus Christi and 80% in Brownsville. Corpus Christi's total of 8.57 inches represented their third-highest August total, behind 1980 (14.79 inches) and 1953 (12.64 inches). Ironically, heavy August rains in 1980 and 1953 also tempered long stretches of hot, dry weather across southern Texas. Elsewhere in Texas, near-record August rainfall occurred in locations such as Austin (8.82 inches; second-wettest August) and Del Rio (4.76 inches; fifth wettest). Much of Texas' rain fell late in the month, as moisture associated with Hurricane Dolly--which made landfall in northeastern Mexico on August 23--settled over the region. Near-record August rainfall occurred as far north as Kansas, where Dodge City's total of 7.34 inches was second only to a 7.44-inch total in 1977. In addition, Dodge City's monthly temperature averaged 4 degrees F below normal. Highs reached or exceeded 90 degrees F on only 4 days in Goodland, KS, tying their August record set in 1992 and 1923. Farther east, highs reached the 90-degree plateau only twice in Kansas City, MO and an August-record once in Charleston, SC. Meanwhile, monthly temperatures averaged 2 to 4 degrees F above normal from the Southwest to the northern High Plains. In downtown Sacramento, CA, triple-digit heat prevailed from August 8-16, tying their longest such streak on record, set in July 1984, June 1981, and August 1966. Sacramento also weathered their hottest August on record (80.3 degrees F). On August 13, the heat peaked at August-record proportions in Bullfrog, UT (110 degrees F) and Paso Robles, CA (113 degrees F). Cool, damp conditions prevailed in many parts of Alaska. A total of 7.91 inches of rain pelted Juneau, their seventh-wettest August. Fairbanks recorded their coolest August since 1969, while rainfall totaled 2.83 inches, 144% of normal. On August 28, a low of 28 degrees F ended Fairbanks' growing season at 100 days, nearly 2 weeks shorter than normal. In contrast, hot weather blanketed Hawaii. Honolulu notched a monthly record high of 93 degrees F on August 25, while Hilo tallied nine daily-record highs during the month. General Crop Comments: Early August brought warmer weather over most of the Corn Belt that accelerated row-crop development, but not enough to reach normal levels. Heavy rains in the western Corn Belt caused localized flooding early in the month, but the much-needed moisture prevented a decline in row-crop conditions. Warmer weather over the Great Lakes region spurred crop development but increased plant requirements for soil moisture. High temperatures and low soil moisture supplies in the northern Rocky Mountains provided ideal harvesting weather for small grains but pushed the region to near-drought levels. Windy conditions, combined with hot, dry weather in the Western States provided ideal conditions for fires. Warm, dry weather over the Dakotas gave producers excellent harvest conditions and accelerated late-seeded crop development. Widespread showers early in the month over the Southeast improved crop conditions, but some dry pockets remained. Corn silking started the month significantly behind the average in the western Corn Belt, with progress in some States almost 2 weeks behind normal. The prolonged drought in central Texas stressed cotton fields and caused some plants to shed bolls. Rangeland fires in the Pacific Northwest at mid-month were intensified by hot, dry windy weather. Cooler weather over the Corn Belt moderated crop stress from dry soil conditions, but slowed corn development and caused condition ratings to decline. Dry weather over the Dakotas allowed small grain harvest to proceed rapidly, but variation in crop maturity prolonged the harvest period. Heat stressed cotton in California and caused some bloom and boll drop in the San Joaquin Valley. Later in the month, scattered thunderstorms throughout the Midwest revived row crops but warmer weather increased plant requirements for additional soil moisture. Heavy rains from Hurricane Dolly brought beneficial precipitation to southern Texas but the rain arrived too late to benefit crops ready for harvest. The rains did replenish soil moisture in south Texas for recently planted small grains, but did not reach the Texas High Plains where some dryland cotton fields continued to drop bolls due to the prolonged dry conditions. Hot weather and dry conditions continued in the West, increasing fire danger for pastures and rangeland. Some rice producers in the Delta completed the first harvest and were re-flooding fields to prepare for the second crop. Warmer weather at the end of August advanced crop development, but crop development remained behind the average, leaving most Midwestern producers hoping for a late first freeze to allow crops to reach maturity. The warm weather increased plant moisture requirements, and a dry August stressed row crops. By month's end, soil moisture supplies declined from the Ohio Valley to the central Great Plains. In the Southeast, wet conditions and high winds damaged cotton fields that had open bolls. Dry conditions continued in the Dakotas, where wheat seeding started but many producers were waiting for rainfall to improve soil moisture conditions. Winter wheat planting was also delayed in the West, where hot, dry weather allowed fires to continue. The end of August brought showers that hindered planting from the Southeast to Texas. August ended with most row crops' development behind the average while cotton and small grains were slightly ahead of normal. Corn: Acreage harvested and to be harvested for grain is forecast at 73.3 million acres, unchanged from last month, but up 13 percent from 1995. The September 1 Corn Objective Yield data indicate a record level stalk count for the seven objective yield States (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Ohio, and Wisconsin). The September forecasted ears per acre are the highest on record and, if realized, would exceed the previous record final ears per acre set in 1992. Ear measurements from the sample plots indicate a length slightly lower than the average but above last year. As of September 1, 33 percent of the acreage was reported dented in the 17 major States. This compares with 49 percent last year and 51 percent for the five-year average. Corn rated in the fair to good condition totaled 71 percent compared to 78 percent for a year ago. In Iowa, forecasted stalk and ear populations are both at record high levels when compared to final counts. Ear length is slightly below average (1991-95) but above 1995. Twenty percent of the corn was dented as of September 1, compared to 47 percent in 1995 and the average of 44 percent. Corn condition was 75 percent good to excellent. Forecasted stalk and ear counts are at record high levels for Illinois and Nebraska when compared to final levels. Ear length is slightly above the 1991- 95 time period average for Nebraska but slightly below for Illinois. Thirty- five percent of the corn in Nebraska was dented compared to 30 percent in 1995 and the average of 52 percent. In Illinois, 36 percent of the corn was dented compared to 57 percent in 1995 and the average of 61 percent. In Nebraska, 85 percent of the corn was rated in good to excellent condition compared to 52 percent for Illinois. Minnesota and Wisconsin stalk counts from objective yield data indicate record high levels. Forecasted ear population is below the five-year average for Minnesota, but, above for Wisconsin. Ear length for both States is slightly below the five-year average. Corn dented in both States lagged behind last year and the average. Corn dented in Minnesota was 13 percent by September 1, compared to 50 percent for 1995 and the average of 36 percent. Wisconsin corn was 12 percent dented compared to 53 percent for last year and the average of 32 percent. The majority of corn was in fair to good condition for Minnesota and Wisconsin with ratings of 79 and 76, respectively. In Indiana, forecasted stalk counts were lower than 1995 but higher than the average. The forecasted ear population is at a record high level. The corn dented in Indiana is at 30 percent compared to 55 percent for last year and the average of 58 percent. The majority (76 percent) of corn in Indiana is in fair to good condition. Forecasted stalk count in Ohio is slightly below the average, but, ear population is slightly above average. Only 11 percent of the corn was dented in Ohio by September 1, compared to 51 percent a year ago and 54 percent for the five-year average. Most corn in Ohio (74 percent) is rated in fair to good condition. Sorghum for Grain: Production is forecast at 764 million bushels, 4 percent higher than the August forecast and 66 percent above 1995. Area harvested and to be harvested was unchanged from August at 12.0 million acres, up 45 percent from the previous year. The forecasted yield, at 63.6 bushels per acre, was up 2.5 bushels from last month and 8.0 bushels above 1995. In the major producing State, Kansas, yields increased 5 bushels from August to 72.0 bushels per acre, boosting production 91 percent above their 1995 total. Arkansas, Colorado, Nebraska, and Oklahoma also showed yield increases from the previous month. Timely rains and moderate temperatures during August helped promote growth and development in most of the forecasting States. August rains were especially beneficial to late planted acreage. As of September 1, coloring was slightly behind normal at 51 percent, compared with the 52 percent average. Harvest was well underway in most of the Southern States with Louisiana growers' 13 percent ahead of normal. Persistent rains in Texas, however, slowed harvest operations during August and less than 50 percent had been harvested by the first of September. Harvest has just begun in Kansas and Oklahoma. Barley: Production is forecast at 394 million bushels, up 2 percent from August and 10 percent above the 1995 production. The expected yield per acre is forecasted at 58.3 bushels compared with last month's 57.4 and last year's 57.2 bushels. Yield increases from August in Minnesota, North Dakota, and Wyoming more than offset declines in Montana, Oregon, and Washington. Area harvested and to be harvested was unchanged from August at 6.76 million acres, up 8 percent from the previous year. Favorable conditions during August helped push harvest progress ahead of normal in most of the major producing States. Seventy-four percent of the crop had been combined by September 1, compared with the 69 percent average. Head blight scab and grasshoppers caused minor problems in some North Dakota fields but, overall, growers are reporting that yields are better than anticipated. Hot, dry weather during July and August in Montana and Oregon has lowered expected yields. Harvest was 69 percent completed in Idaho as of the first of September, 5 points ahead of average. Durum Wheat: Condition of North Dakota's crop declined during August as scab became more evident. Harvest has moved to 33 percent completion; wide variations in maturity have kept farmers from taking advantage of the favorable combining weather. Objective Yield head weight averages declined from last month to the lowest since 1989. Harvested yields pointed to increases in the Minnesota and South Dakota forecasts from August 1. Other Spring Wheat: South Dakota's spring wheat harvest was virtually complete by September 1. Hail damage was a little higher than normal, but quality has been consistently good. Combining moved ahead of average progress in North Dakota by the end of August. Head scab problems have turned out less severe than in the previous three years. The Montana harvest is well ahead of normal, but Minnesota's trails average. The Idaho harvest is 70 percent complete overall with most remaining acreage in northern and eastern parts of the state. Objective Yield survey data showed little change in head populations from a month ago. Forecasted gross weight per head improved in North Dakota and significantly so in Minnesota. Forecasted weight per head has declined in Montana to the lowest since 1990. Rice: Total rice production is forecast at 171 million cwt, up 2 percent from August 1 but down 1 percent from 1995. If realized, this would be the fifth largest production on record. Area for harvest, estimated at 2.88 million acres, is unchanged from August 1 and is 7 percent below last year. Yield per harvested acre is expected to average 5,957 pounds per acre, up 94 pounds from August 1 and 336 pounds above a year ago. Yield increases in Arkansas, Mississippi, and Texas contributed to the 2 percent increase in production from a month ago. Yields in California, Louisiana, and Missouri remained unchanged from August 1. Arkansas, Louisiana, and Mississippi growers report excellent crop prospects, with crop conditions ranging from 77 to 84 percent in good-to-excellent condition as of September 1. Rice harvest is running slightly behind normal in Arkansas but ahead of schedule in Louisiana and Mississippi. In California's Sacramento Valley, cool temperatures during late-August hampered crop development. Harvest is expected to begin the first week in September. The Texas rice crop was 80 percent harvested by September 1, compared with a 61 percent average. Extensive rainfall during the last week of August delayed final harvest operations. Soybeans: Soybean acreage intended for harvest at 63.4 million, is unchanged from the August 1 estimate. Crop maturity continues to be behind normal. As of September 1, soybeans setting pods were 2 percentage points behind last year and the five-year average. In Ohio, the percent of soybeans setting pods was 16 points behind both last year and the five-year average. Pod setting was complete in Louisiana as of September 1. The percent of soybean dropping leaves lagged behind the 5 year average in 7 of the 8 major soybean producing states. In Mississippi, soybeans dropping leaves were 18 percentage points ahead of the average. No soybeans were dropping leaves in Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, and Ohio. The pod count from the September Objective Yield Survey was the lowest since 1993. A record pod count is forecasted for Missouri; while in Nebraska the pod count is the second highest on record. Forecasted pod counts for Minnesota, Iowa, Ohio, and Arkansas are the lowest since 1993. In Illinois, the pod count is the lowest since 1992. The forecasted pod count in Indiana is the lowest in the past five years. The average temperature for the eastern Corn Belt States during the month was equal to or above average. In the western Corn Belt and Delta States, the temperature fell below average. Precipitation was generally below normal in Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio, but was above normal in the other major producing states. Soybeans were in fair to good condition in the major producing states. Peanuts: Production is forecast at 3.36 billion pounds, up slightly from the August 1 forecast but down 3 percent from 1995. Production is down in Alabama, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Oklahoma, and South Carolina but New Mexico, Texas, and Virginia are up from a year ago. Harvested area, estimated at 1.41 million acres, is down fractionally from August 1 and 7 percent below last year. Georgia is the only state to adjust its acreage for harvest from the August report, dropping their expectations by 5,000 acres to 533,000 acres for harvest. The U.S. peanut yield is expected to average 2,384 pounds per harvested acre, up 20 pounds from last month and up 102 pounds from 1995. Production in the Southeastern States (Alabama, Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina) is expected to total 2.01 billion pounds, down fractionally from last month and 5 percent below the 1995 crop. Yield for the 4-State area is expected to average 2,423 pounds per acre, 54 pounds above last year. Yield prospects in Alabama are unchanged from August 1 and 180 pounds below a year ago. Early harvest is underway and the crop was in mostly good condition on September 1. The Georgia crop outlook held steady compared with a month ago. Beneficial rains which fell during August are expected to aid crop development, especially in the later varieties. Temperatures during the month were near normal, unlike last year's extreme heat. Tomato spotted wilt virus remains a concern to many producers. By late-August, first digging and combining were off to slow start with three percent of the acreage dug and 1 percent combined. Florida growers expect a good crop. Harvest started in late-August with 5 percent of the crop harvested by September 1. Virginia-North Carolina production is forecast at 553 million pounds, unchanged from last month and virtually unchanged from last year's crop. Yield per harvested acre in the region, at 2,738 pounds, is 360 pounds per acre above last year's final average. Excessive moisture reduced crop potential in the Virginia-North Carolina region. Producers in the region continued to apply fungicides. Despite a cool, damp growing season, 61 percent of Virginia's crop was rated in good condition on September 1. At month's end, North Carolina growers rated the crop as 1 percent poor, 29 percent fair, 63 percent good, and 7 percent excellent. The peanut crop in the Southwest (New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas) is expected to total 798 million pounds, up 4 percent from last month and 2 percent above 1995. Yields in the tri-state area are expected to average 2,109 pounds per acre, 72 pounds above last month and 86 pounds above last year. New Mexico producers expected an above average crop. Frequent rains have prompted some disease problems. Yield prospects in Oklahoma remained unchanged from a month ago as the crop continues to make good progress. Texas growers raised their yield expectation by 100 pounds per acre from last month, rating their crop in fair to mostly good condition. Beneficial rains during August improved crop prospects, especially in Central and South Central Texas. Cotton: Upland cotton harvested acreage, at 12.7 million acres, is unchanged from last month, but down 19 percent from last year. American-Pima harvested acreage is also unchanged from August, at 261,900 acres, but up 24 percent from 1995. Texas' High Plains cotton made good progress from the rains received during August. Heavy rain caused some problems with the mature crop in the southern producing areas, by delaying harvest. Producers were also concerned about damage to the open bolls. Harvest neared completion in South Texas and Coastal Bend areas. On September 1, Texas boll opening was at 26 percent, equaling the 5-year average. Crop condition in Texas in early September, showed 38 percent was rated good to excellent and 31 percent was in fair condition. Objective yield survey data indicate Texas' large boll counts are the second lowest during the past 10 years, and small bolls and squares rank eighth and seventh, respectively for the same period. The Delta States (Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, and Tennessee) rated their cotton mostly in good to excellent condition on September 1. Arkansas and Tennessee show the best crop condition in the region with about three-fourths rated as good to excellent. Increased insect pressure occurred in Arkansas and Louisiana, but was lighter in Mississippi and Tennessee. Limited defoliation was underway in most States. All of these States' boll openings were ahead of the 5-year average, on the first of the month. Mississippi's crop was 77 percent opened, one-third ahead of the average, and Arkansas was 16 percent ahead of normal progress, with 37 percent of the bolls open. Data from cotton objective yield plots show Arkansas has the third highest count of large bolls since 1986, but small bolls rank ninth and squares are the third lowest. Mississippi's large bolls are the second highest in the past 10 years, but small bolls and squares are the third lowest and second lowest, respectively. Louisiana ranks eighth in large boll, small boll, and square counts since 1986. Sixty-one percent of Arizona's crop was in good to excellent condition and 81 percent of bolls were opening in early September, 8 points ahead of average. Storms during the past month were accompanied by hail, high winds, and heavy rainfall. Cotton development in California remained ahead of average, with 50 percent of the crop showing open bolls compared to an average pace of 34 percent. Ninety percent of the State's crop was in good to excellent condition on September 1, but heat stress during August caused an unusual amount of fruit to shed. California growers sprayed for aphids, lygus, mites, and worms and whitefly infested some fields in southern Kern county. Defoliation was active in the Desert areas and was beginning in the southern San Joaquin Valley. Objective yield survey counts for California indicate the lowest count of large bolls during the past 10 years, and small boll and square counts are the fourth lowest during the same time period. In the Southeastern States (Alabama, Georgia, North Carolina, and South Carolina), the majority of the crop was in good to excellent condition, with 85 percent of North Carolina's crop rated good to excellent on September 1. Insect pressure increased in Georgia and 12 percent of their crop was in poor to very poor condition, with 59 percent rated good to excellent in early September. Alabama and Georgia's boll opening exceeded the average pace, but the Carolinas' progress was behind normal as more heat units are needed to advance the crop's development. Both of these States had 20 percent of their bolls open on September 1, 6 points behind average for North Carolina and 3 points behind for South Carolina. Fifty-two percent of the Georgia crop was opened, 22 percent ahead of the 5-year average. The American-Pima production forecast, at 574,000 bales, is up 56 percent from 1995's output, but down 2,000 bales from August. Arizona was the only State with a change in production from the August forecast, as storms with hail, high wind, and heavy precipitation caused a slight decline in yield potential. U.S. yield is indicated at 1,052 pounds per harvested acre, up 216 pounds from last year. California's crop development remained nearly two weeks ahead of normal, and defoliation began in the Desert areas. Extreme heat in the San Joaquin Valley crop caused limited bloom and boll drop during the first part of August. Insect pressure was controlled well with timely spraying. In Texas, the crop continued making good progress, although heavy rains had been received. Ginnings totaled 343,150 running bales prior to September 1, compared with 427,000 running bales ginned to the same date last year and 679,950 running bales in 1994. Summer Potatoes: Production of summer potatoes is forecast at 19.1 million cwt for 1996, up 6 percent from a year ago and 10 percent above comparable States in 1994. Harvest is expected from 76,300 acres this year, a gain of 8 percent from a year ago and 6 percent above two years ago. The average yield is forecast at 250 cwt per acre, down 4 cwt from last year's record high but 8 cwt above 1994 yields. Rain delayed harvest progress along the Atlantic Coast and washed out some fields in Virginia's Eastern Shore. Farther north in Delaware and New Jersey, good harvests are winding down. Alabama's growers couldn't get enough moisture for their crop; while Texas yields turned out better than expected after a dry start. Hail shredded some fields in Colorado and Nebraska and reduced yields. Missouri growers bypassed some poor quality fields in southeast counties. California summer harvest is almost finished after a good season with favorable weather conditions. Fall Potatoes, 1995 final: The final tally of fall potatoes for 1995 places production at 403 million cwt, up fractionally from the preliminary estimate made last December. This is 5 percent below 1994 production but 3 percent above 1993. Harvested acreage was estimated at 1.21 million acres in 1995, down slightly from the year earlier but up 5 percent from 1993. Idaho and Oregon marketed slightly more potatoes than earlier estimated. Crops in Michigan and Wisconsin were a little smaller than earlier estimated. All potatoes, 1995: Final production of all potatoes in 1995 totaled 444 million cwt, down 5 percent from a year earlier but 3 percent larger than 1993 production. Harvested area totaled 1.37 million acres, down 1 percent from 1994 but 4 percent above 1993 harvest. The average yield for 1995 was 323 cwt per acre, down 15 cwt from 1994 and 3 cwt below 1993. Seasonal estimates of production in 1995 were 2.47 million cwt for winter, up 4 percent from a year earlier; spring production, at 20.2 million cwt was down 11 percent; summer potatoes at 17.9 million gained 3 percent; while fall output of 403 million cwt was down 5 percent. Tobacco: U.S. all tobacco production for 1996 is forecast at 1.58 billion pounds, down fractionally from August 1 but up 25 percent from 1995. Harvested acreage, estimated at 735,180 acres, is unchanged from August 1 and is 11 percent above last year. Yields for 1996 are expected to average 2,150 pounds per acre, 20 pounds below last month but 237 pounds above the average for 1995. Flue-cured production is expected to total 898 million pounds, up 20 percent from 1995. Producers plan to harvest 411,300 acres, up 6 percent from last year. The North Carolina flue-cured tobacco harvest is on schedule with nearly half the crop rated in good condition on September 1. In Georgia, near-normal temperatures and timely rains during August helped the crop. By September 1, 88 percent of the crop had been harvested, about one week behind normal. Virginia growers reported a good quality crop. Rains during August in South Carolina aided crop development with 83 percent of harvest complete. Harvest in Florida neared completion by month's end. Burley production is expected to total 593 million pounds, down 4 percent from August 1 projections but 36 percent above the 1995 production. Yield is expected to average 2,102 pounds per acre, 239 pounds above the average for 1995. Burley tobacco growers expect to harvest 282,100 acres, up 20 percent from last year. Indiana, Kentucky, North Carolina, and Ohio each lowered their yield expectations below a month ago. Most states are working with a late season followed by the pressure of blue mold disease in their burley crop. Kentucky, with 71 percent of the 1996 burley production, is expected to produce 39 percent more tobacco than a year ago. Thirty-six percent of the Kentucky burley crop was cut by month's end. Florida Citrus: Groves, trees, and new crop fruit are all in very good to excellent condition. Rainfall during August was variable throughout the State. However, virtually all citrus growing counties reported above average rainfall for the month. There was an abundance of new growth on most young trees. New crop fruit made good maturity progress. Several fresh fruit packing houses tested early bloom grapefruit and Navels for early packing and shipping. No groves passed maturity tests. Caretakers cut cover crops; applied herbicides, insecticides, fertilizer, and lime; removed dead trees; and reset replacement trees in the larger groves. California Citrus: Grapefruit harvest outside the desert area continued during August. Lemon picking in the south coast area was nearly over. Valencia harvest was still slow due to competition in the marketplace from other fresh fruits. New crop Navel oranges were maturing well. Navel fruit set was down but fruit size was large. Sugarbeets: Production for the U.S. is expected to total 26.4 million tons, a decrease of 6 percent from 1995. Area for harvest, at 1.33 million acres, is virtually unchanged from the August "Crop Production" report and down 6 percent from last year. The average yield, at 19.8 tons per acre, is equal to last year's yield, and up 0.3 tons from August. A cool, wet spring delayed planting and slowed sugarbeet development, leaving many States behind normal. Cool summer weather slowed plant development in the Great Lakes region, leaving many fields two weeks behind normal. Favorable temperatures in the Mountain States during July and August aided crop development, but dry weather increased irrigation requirements. The dry weather helped control insect populations in the Western States but, since virtually all sugarbeet fields are irrigated, the dry conditions did not affect yield expectations. Hail in the central Great Plains damaged leaves in some fields, requiring plants to expend nutrients to repair the damage and lowering expected yield. Beneficial rains over Texas during August and cooler temperatures aided plant development. Sugarcane: Sugarcane production for U.S. sugar and seed in 1996 is expected to total 27.3 million tons, down 11 percent from 1995 and 1 percent below the August "Crop Report". Area for harvest, at 869,000 acres, was 7 percent below last year. The forecasted yield, at 31.4 tons per acre, is 1.6 tons below last year's yield. Frequent rains during Florida's growing season and no significant storm damage allowed sugarcane to make good growth. Florida's sugarcane mills were preparing to begin milling in late October. In Louisiana, the effects of last winter's hard freeze lowered expected yields but the freeze also lowered cane borer populations. Louisiana's sugarcane is shorter than normal for this time of year but the height of the crop is not expected to lower final tonnage at harvest time. Hot, dry weather in Hawaii aided harvest activity in many areas and helped control insect populations. Heavy rains during August stimulated sugarcane growth in Texas, and may offset the effect of the summer's drought. Papayas: Fresh papaya production from Hawaii is estimated at 2.94 million pounds for August, up 1 percent from July but 16 percent lower than August 1995. Weather conditions were a mix of sunshine and showers in August over the major papaya growing areas. Papaya ringspot virus continued to depress yields in Puna orchards. Growers planted in former sugarcane fields along the Hamakua coast. However, papaya ringspot virus was found for the first time in the area and surveillance and roguing efforts were stepped up. Papaya production area totaled 3,835 acres, 1 percent more than July and 2 percent more than last August. Harvested area, totaling 2,805 acres, was 6 percent higher than last month and 20 percent higher than a year ago. California Fruits and Nuts: Many growers were picking their crops or preparing vineyards and orchards for harvest during August. Gala and Granny Smith apples were picked in the San Joaquin Valley. Table grape harvest was also active in the San Joaquin Valley with Perlette, Flame Seedless, and Thompson Seedless the primary varieties. Thompson Seedless grapes for raisins were placed on trays for drying. Harvest of wine grapes was also active. Bartlett pear picking continued in Lake County. Clingstone peach harvest was winding down by the end of August. Picking continued for other stonefruits such as prunes, plums, nectarines, and freestone peaches. Almond growers were busy harvesting their crop, while walnut growers were preparing their groves for harvest. Hazelnut: Production in Oregon and Washington is forecast at 20,000 tons for 1996, 49 percent below last year's crop and 5 percent below 1994. If realized, this would be the smallest crop since 1989's 13,000 tons. Oregon growers are expected to harvest 19,900 tons, roughly half of 1995's production. Washington production is forecast at 100 tons, down from 200 tons the previous year. Crop progress is about normal for this date. A severe windstorm in December caused considerable damage to limbs and may have reduced catkin numbers. The winter concluded with a week of freezing weather in February followed by flooding. Cool, wet weather during pollination limited nut set. Results of the objective measurement survey showed the average number of sampled nuts was 45 percent of last year, and 8 percent lower than in 1994. The percentage of good nuts was just slightly lower than 1995 and the same as in 1994. Average size and dry weight of good nuts was the highest since 1994. Walnuts: The 1996 California walnut production forecast is 220,000 tons, down 6 percent from last year's production and also 6 percent below July's initial crop forecast. This level is based on the Walnut Objective Measurement Survey conducted July 22 through August 18, 1996. Survey data indicated an average nut set per tree of 1,630, down 8 percent from 1995's average of 1,777 nuts. The Hartley average nut set was down 19 percent; the Serr, up 44 percent; and the Franquette, virtually unchanged from the previous year. Of the nuts sampled, 94.4 percent were sound. In-shell weight per nut was 22.1 grams, while the average in-shell suture measurement was 32.3 millimeters. The average length in-shell was 39.0 millimeters. Heavy drop was reported as a result of winter's low chilling hours and the rain received during May. Temperatures were very high from late July through mid-August, and there have been reports of heavy sunburn damage. Objective measurement samples do not show sunburn damage to be abnormal, but some damage may have occurred after the samples were taken. Pecans: The September 1 forecast for pecan production is 245 million pounds (in-shell basis), down 9 percent from last year's crop of 268 million pounds. Improved varieties are forecast at 190 million pounds, 78 percent of the total. Native varieties decreased 29 percent from last year to 54.3 million pounds. Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, and South Carolina expect higher production this year, while Arkansas, California, Kansas, New Mexico. North Carolina, Oklahoma, and Texas expect smaller crops. Georgia's production is set at 100 million pounds, one-third larger than 1995. Cooler than normal temperatures have aided crop development. Lack of moisture in non-irrigated groves has some growers concerned about nut size. The Texas forecast is 40.0 million pounds, 47 percent below last year. Extreme drought conditions during spring and summer have affected the whole state. Consequently, growers may lose some trees. Insect problems have also limited this year's crop. New Mexico expects 30.0 million pounds, 33 percent less than the previous year's record high crop. Nut set was only average following last year's production. The crop has remained in mostly good to excellent condition throughout the summer with an adequate supply of irrigation water and minimal insect problems. Alabama forecasts 15.0 million pounds of pecans, up 50 percent from the 10.0 million pounds produced last year. Despite hurricane damage last season and dry conditions in May and June, the crop is in good condition. Nut casebearer problems reduced crop potential in some orchards, but insect pressure has been light overall. Louisiana's pecan crop is also expected to reach 15.0 million pounds, 15 percent above the previous year. Disease pressures have been low. Drought conditions existed in some areas of southwest Louisiana and some growers reported nuts dropping prematurely. Production in Arkansas and Mississippi continues to be affected by the damaging ice storms of 1994. Hurricane damage from last year reduced North Carolina's expectations for 1996. Late freezes this spring hurt nut set in some South Carolina groves, while other growers reported limb breakage caused by a heavy load of pecans. Production in Oklahoma is forecast at 10.0 million pounds, 47 percent lower than last year. Dry weather and high winds during pollination caused a light nut set. Some areas reported rainy weather during pollination. All areas reported very heavy web worm infestations. Very dry conditions have taken a toll on the Kansas pecan crop this year with production expected at 400,000 pounds, 20 percent below last year's total. The Arizona pecan forecast for 1996 is 18.0 million pounds. During spring and early summer, temperatures were ideal for growth, and fruit and leaf development. Although severe drought conditions existed, water was available for the crop. California pecans are in a down year of the alternate bearing cycle with most growers reporting a decrease in production from last year. Reliability of September 1 Crop Production Forecasts Survey Procedures: Objective yield and farm operator surveys were conducted between August 23 and September 3 to gather information on expected yield as of September 1. The objective yield surveys for wheat, corn, soybeans, and cotton were conducted in the major producing States that usually account for about 75 percent of the U.S. production. Randomly selected plots were revisited to make current counts. The items counted within the selected plots depend on the crop and the maturity of that crop. In all cases, number of plants are recorded along with other measurements that provide information to forecast the number of heads, ears, pods, or bolls and their weight. The counts are used with similar data from previous years to develop a projected biological yield. The five-year average harvesting loss is subtracted to obtain a net yield. The plots are revisited each month until crop maturity when the fruit is harvested and weighed. After the farm operator has harvested the sample field, another plot is sampled to obtain current year harvesting loss. The farm operator survey was conducted primarily by telephone with some use of mail and personal interviewers. Approximately 16,000 producers were interviewed during the survey period and asked questions about probable yield. Estimating Procedures: National and State level objective yield and grower reported survey estimates were reviewed for errors, reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. The survey data were also reviewed considering weather patterns and crop progress compared to previous month and previous years. Each State Statistical Office submits their analysis of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State analysis to prepare the published September 1 forecast. Revision Policy: The September 1 production forecast will not be revised; instead a new forecast will be made each month throughout the growing season. At the end of the marketing year administrative records and a balance sheet are utilized using carryover stocks, production, exports, processing, feeding, and ending stocks. Revisions are then made if data relationships warrant changes. Harvested acres may be revised any time a production forecast is made if there is strong evidence that the intended harvested area has changed since the last estimate. Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the September 1 production forecasts, the "Root Mean Square Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the September 1 production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of squared percentage deviations for the 1976-1995 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent years. For example, the "Root Mean Square Error" for the September 1 corn for grain production forecast is 5.9 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current production forecast of 8.80 billion bushels will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 5.9 percent or approximately 519 million bushels. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 10.2 percent or approximately 898 million bushels. Also, shown in the following table is a 10-year record for selected crops of the differences between the September 1 forecast and the final estimates. Using corn again as an example, changes between the September 1 forecast and the final estimate during the past 10 years have averaged 399 million bushels, ranging from 10 million to 885 million bushels. The September 1 forecast has been below the final estimate 5 times and above 5 times. This does not imply that the September 1 corn forecast this year is likely to understate or overstate final production. For most crops, the number of years the forecasts have been below or above the final estimate is about equally distributed. Reliability of September 1 Crop Production Forecasts ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ :Root Mean Square Error:: 10-year Record of :----------------------:: Differences Between Forecast : :90% Confidence:: and Final Estimate Crop and : : Level ::------------------------------- Unit :Percent:--------------:: Quantity :No. of Years : : : ::------------------------------- : :Percent: Quant:: : :Below:Above : : : :: Avg:Small:Large:Final:Final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Mil ::----- Mil ----- : :: Corn for Grain Bu: 5.9 10.2 898 ::399 10 893 5 5 Sorghum for Grain Bu: 7.3 12.6 96 :: 45 1 115 6 4 Barley Bu: 4.0 7.1 28 :: 13 3 38 5 5 All Wheat Bu: 1.5 2.5 57 :: 32 1 97 2 8 Durum Bu: 5.9 10.3 12 :: 5 1 12 4 6 Other Spring Bu: 3.6 6.3 43 :: 20 1 62 3 7 Rice Cwt: 4.3 7.3 13 :: 7 2 16 7 3 Soybeans for : :: Beans Bu: 5.2 8.9 202 :: 91 19 201 6 4 Cotton Bales 1/: 6.2 10.7 1,915 ::952 84 2,366 5 5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Quantity is in thousands of bales. Index Page Table Narrative Barley ........................................ A-11 B- 5 Citrus Fruits ................................. A-24 B-10 Corn for Grain ................................ A- 9 B- 4 Cotton ........................................ A-17 B- 8 Corn-Plants per Acre .......................... A-28 Cotton - Cummulative Boll Counts .............. A-31 Cottonseed .................................... A-16 Crop Moisture Maps ............................ B- 1 Crop Summary .................................. A- 3 B- 3 Nuts .......................................... A-26 B-11 Papayas - Hawaii .............................. A-26 B-11 Peanuts ....................................... A-16 B- 7 Pecans ........................................ A-27 B-12 Potatoes ...................................... A-18 B- 9 Reliability Statement ......................... B-13 Rice .......................................... A-14 B- 6 Rice - By Grain Length ........................ A-14 Sorghum for Grain ............................. A-10 B- 5 Soybeans for Beans ............................ A-15 B- 6 Soybeans - Pods for Beans ..................... A-30 Sugarbeets .................................... A-25 B-10 Sugarcane for Sugar and Seed .................. A-25 B-10 Tobacco by Class and Type ..................... A-20 Tobacco by States ............................. A-21 B- 9 Wheat, All .................................... A-12 Wheat, by Class ............................... A-13 Wheat, Durum .................................. A-13 B- 6 Wheat, Other Spring ........................... A-13 B- 6 Wheat, Other Spring- Heads per Acre ........... A-29 Report Features The next "Crop Production" report will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET on October 11, 1996. Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. C. Ray Halley, Chief (202) 720-2127 Field Crops Section Bill Dowdy, Head (202) 720-3843 Kevin Barnes - Soybeans, Minor Oilseeds (202) 720-7369 Dan Kerestes - Corn (202) 720-9526 Roger Latham - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings (202) 720-5944 Joel Moore - Barley, Hay, Sorghum (202) 690-3234 Greg Preston - Sugar Crops, Weekly Crop Weather, Oats (202) 720-7621 Barbara Rater - Peanuts, Rice, Tobacco (202) 720-7688 Vaughn Siegenthaler - Wheat, Rye (202) 720-8068 Fruit, Vegetable & Special Crops Section Vince Matthews, Head (202) 720-3843 Arvin Budge - Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes (202) 720-4285 Howard Hill - Cherries, Berries, Prunes, Plums, Cranberries, Grapes, Maple Syrup (202) 720-7235 Linda McMillan - Nuts, Floriculture (202) 720-4215 Dave Mueller - Fresh and Processing Vegetables, Onions (202) 720-2157 Linda Simpson - Noncitrus Fruits, Mint, Dry Beans & Peas, Mushrooms, Hops (202) 720-3578 Blair Smith - Citrus, Tropical Fruits (202) 720-5412 The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination in its programs on the basis of race, color, national origin, sex, religion, age, disability, political beliefs, and marital or familial status. 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