HDR1012000110010512970830CROP PRODUCTION HDR2012000110010512970830CROP PRODUCTION HIGHLIGHTS & SUMMARY Crop Production National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released May 12, 1997, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Crop Production" call (202) 720-2127, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. Forecasts refer to May 1, 1997. Winter Wheat Production up 6 Percent Winter wheat production is forecast at 1.56 billion bushels, up 6 percent from 1996 and 1 percent more than in 1995. Based on May 1 conditions, the U.S. yield is forecast at 38.2 bushels per acre. If realized, this would be a full bushel better than last year and a half-bushel above 1995. Grain area totals 40.8 million acres, up 3 percent from last year. Hard Red Winter wheat production is forecast up 17 percent from last year while Soft Red and White Winter wheat are down 3 and 12 percent, respectively. All oranges production for the 1996-97 season is forecast at a record large 12.9 million tons, up 1 percent from the previous forecast in April. The U.S. forecast is up 10 percent from a year ago. This year's crop is 9 percent larger than the previous record of 11.8 million tons set in the 1979-80 season. Florida's production amounts to 224 million boxes (10.1 million tons), up 1 percent from April's forecast and 10 percent above last season. Early and midseason varieties remained at 134 million boxes (6.04 million tons), 11 percent above last year. Florida's Valencia crop forecast, 90.0 million boxes (4.05 million tons), is up 3 percent from April's forecast and 10 percent above last season's crop. Florida frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) yield for the 1996-97 season is forecast at 1.58 gallons per box at 42.0 degrees Brix, up from 1.57 in April. The forecast projects the final yield as reported by the Florida Citrus Processors Association. The final 1995-96 yield for all fruit used in FCOJ was 1.52 gallons per box at 42.0 degrees Brix. The average yield for 1996-97 early and midseason varieties was final in April at 1.52 gallons per box, up from last season's 1.45. Valencia yield is projected at 1.68 gallons per box, up from 1.66 last month and from 1.67 last season. Cr Pr 2-2 (5-97)a Crop Summary: Production, United States, 1995-96 and Forecasted 1996-97 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Utilized Production :---------------------------------------------------- Crop : : Apr 1, : May 1, : : 1997 : 1997 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Crop Year 1/ : 1995-96 1996-97 1996-97 : : 1,000 Tons Citrus Fruits : Oranges : 11,723 12,726 12,861 Grapefruit : 2,718 3,062 3,062 Lemons 2/ : 992 950 950 Tangerines : 348 432 437 Temples (FL) : 97 113 108 Tangelos (FL) : 110 178 178 K-Early Citrus (FL) : 7 7 7 : : Metric Tons : Oranges : 10,634,930 11,544,830 11,667,300 Grapefruit : 2,465,730 2,777,800 2,777,800 Lemons 2/ : 899,930 861,830 861,830 Tangerines : 315,700 391,900 396,440 Temples (FL) : 88,000 102,510 97,980 Tangelos (FL) : 99,790 161,480 161,480 K-Early Citrus (FL) : 6,350 6,350 6,350 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Crop year begins with the bloom of the first year and ends with the completion of harvest the following year. 2/ Estimates for current month carried forward from earlier forecast. This report was approved on May 12, 1997, by the Secretary of Agriculture and the National Agricultural Statistics Service's Agricultural Statistics Board. Secretary of Agricultural Statistics Board Agriculture Chairperson Dan Glickman Rich Allen Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 1996 and Forecasted May 1, 1997 (Domestic Units) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Area Planted : Area Harvested Crop :---------------------------------------------------- : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 : 1997 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : 1,000 Acres : : Winter Wheat : 51,983 48,227 39,709 40,847 All Cotton 1/ : 14,633.5 14,484.5 12,868.1 Upland 1/ : 14,375.5 14,239.5 12,612.2 Amer-Pima 1/ : 258.0 245.0 255.9 Cottonseed 1/ : Tobacco 1/ : 732.7 807.5 Potatoes : Winter : 14.5 15.6 14.5 15.4 Spring : 93.4 87.7 90.0 86.1 Total : 1,454.7 1,424.8 Bananas 1/ : 1.0 Papayas 1/ : 1.8 Taro 1/ : 0.5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ 1996 revised. 1997 cotton planted and tobacco harvested were released in the "Prospective Plantings" report on March 31, 1997. Crop Summary: Yield per Acre and Production, United States, 1996 and Forecasted May 1, 1997 (Domestic Units) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Yield per Acre: Production Crop and Unit :--------------------------------------------------- : : : : Apr 1, : May 1, : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 : 1997 : 1997 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------- 1,000 ------------ : Winter Wheat Bu : 37.2 38.2 1,478,048 1,561,470 All Cotton 1/ 2/ Bale: 707 18,942.0 Upland 1/ 2/ " : 701 18,413.5 Amer-Pima 1/ 2/ " : 991 528.5 Cottonseed 2/ Ton : 7,143.5 Tobacco 1/ Lb : 2,071 1,517,334 Potatoes : Winter 3/ Cwt : 226 205 3,273 3,157 3,157 Spring " : 249 250 22,417 22,457 21,498 Total " : 349 497,104 Bananas 2/ Lb :12,500 13,000 Papayas 2/ " :22,779 41,800 Taro 2/ " :11,100 5,900 Almonds (CA) 2/ " : 510,000 710,000 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Yield in Pounds. 2/ 1996 Revised. 1997 cotton and tobacco yield and production will be released in the "Crop Production" report on August 12, 1997. 3/ Estimates for current month carried forward from earlier forecast. Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 1996 and Forecasted May 1, 1997 (Metric Units) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Area Planted : Area Harvested Crop :------------------------------------------------------- : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 : 1997 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Hectares : : Winter Wheat : 21,037,000 19,516,980 16,069,840 16,530,370 All Cotton 1/ : 5,922,030 5,861,730 5,207,590 Upland 1/ : 5,817,620 5,762,580 5,104,030 Amer-Pima 1/ : 104,410 99,150 103,560 Tobacco 1/ : 296,510 326,780 Potatoes : Winter : 5,870 6,310 5,870 6,230 Spring : 37,800 35,490 36,420 34,840 Total : 588,700 576,600 Bananas 1/ : 420 Papayas 1/ : 740 Taro 1/ : 210 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ 1996 revised. 1997 cotton planted and tobacco harvested were released in the "Prospective Plantings" report on March 31, 1997. Crop Summary: Yield per Hectare and Production, United States, 1996 and Forecasted May 1, 1997 (Metric Units) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ :Yield per Hectare: Production Crop :------------------------------------------------------- : : : : Apr 1, : May 1, : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 : 1997 : 1997 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Metric Tons : Winter Wheat : 2.50 2.57 40,225,870 42,496,250 All Cotton 1/ : 0.79 4,124,140 Upland 1/ : 0.79 4,009,070 Amer-Pima 1/ : 1.11 115,070 Cottonseed 1/ : 6,480,470 Tobacco 1/ : 2.32 688,250 Potatoes : Winter 2/ : 25.29 22.99 148,460 143,200 143,200 Spring : 27.92 27.99 1,016,820 1,018,630 975,130 Total : 39.11 22,548,270 1,118,330 Bananas 1/ : 14.05 5,900 Papayas 1/ : 25.62 18,960 Taro 1/ : 12.76 2,680 Almonds (CA) 1/ : 231,330 322,050 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ 1996 Revised. 1997 cotton and tobacco yield and production will be released in the "Crop Production" report on August 12, 1997. 2/ Estimates for current month carried forward from earlier forecast. Crop Summary: Hay Stocks on Farms, United States, 1995-97 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Date : 1995 : 1996 : 1997 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : : 1,000 Tons : May 1 : 20,775 20,739 17,375 December 1 : 109,438 105,208 : : Metric Tons : May 1 : 18,846,760 18,814,100 15,762,330 December 1 : 99,280,480 95,443,090 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Winter Wheat: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production, by State and United States, 1996 and Forecasted May 1, 1997 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Planted : Area Harvested : Yield : Production State:------------------------------------------------------------------------ : 1997 : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 : 1997 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- ---- 1,000 Acres ---- --- Bushels --- -- 1,000 Bushels -- : AL : 145 80 110 44.0 35.0 3,520 3,850 AZ : 10 14 10 95.0 85.0 1,330 850 AR : 880 1,240 790 54.0 42.0 66,960 33,180 CA : 510 550 380 69.0 65.0 37,950 24,700 CO : 3,100 2,200 2,750 32.0 33.0 70,400 90,750 DE : 80 78 77 53.0 62.0 4,134 4,774 FL : 17 10 15 38.0 39.0 380 585 GA : 400 350 350 48.0 40.0 16,800 14,000 ID : 920 860 870 80.0 76.0 68,800 66,120 IL : 1,150 1,100 1,080 38.0 50.0 41,800 54,000 IN : 700 720 640 38.0 55.0 27,360 35,200 IA : 35 45 25 35.0 36.0 1,575 900 KS : 11,400 8,800 10,700 29.0 32.0 255,200 342,400 KY : 700 530 500 53.0 46.0 28,090 23,000 LA : 130 130 120 43.0 40.0 5,590 4,800 MD : 220 227 207 52.0 55.0 11,804 11,385 MI : 580 630 550 38.0 52.0 23,940 28,600 MN : 55 32 51 36.0 36.0 1,152 1,836 MS : 220 230 200 49.0 39.0 11,270 7,800 MO : 1,100 1,250 1,000 39.0 44.0 48,750 44,000 MT : 1,750 1,980 1,650 32.0 35.0 63,360 57,750 NE : 2,000 2,100 1,900 35.0 36.0 73,500 68,400 NV : 12 9 12 100.0 100.0 900 1,200 NJ : 35 38 32 46.0 46.0 1,748 1,472 NM : 430 110 250 37.0 31.0 4,070 7,750 NY : 140 150 135 43.0 52.0 6,450 7,020 NC : 750 590 700 44.0 46.0 25,960 32,200 ND : 40 75 38 30.0 31.0 2,250 1,178 OH : 1,250 1,330 1,140 39.0 51.0 51,870 58,140 OK : 6,800 4,900 5,000 19.0 25.0 93,100 125,000 OR : 870 850 840 72.0 68.0 61,200 57,120 PA : 180 190 175 48.0 52.0 9,120 9,100 SC : 300 270 290 45.0 45.0 12,150 13,050 SD : 1,650 1,580 1,250 35.0 35.0 55,300 43,750 TN : 560 400 370 44.0 43.0 17,600 15,910 TX : 6,000 2,900 3,700 26.0 28.0 75,400 103,600 UT : 170 160 160 38.0 45.0 6,080 7,200 VA : 280 275 250 53.0 54.0 14,575 13,500 WA : 2,250 2,350 2,150 70.0 61.0 164,500 131,150 WV : 13 11 10 45.0 45.0 495 450 WI : 145 125 135 43.0 50.0 5,375 6,750 WY : 250 240 235 26.0 30.0 6,240 7,050 : US : 48,227 39,709 40,847 37.2 38.2 1,478,048 1,561,470 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Durum Wheat: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production, by State and United States, 1995-96 and Forecasted May 1, 1997 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production State:------------------------------------------------------------------------ : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 : 1997 : 1995 : 1996 : 1997 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres --- Bushels -- ---- 1,000 Bushels --- : AZ : 164 99 90.0 93.0 8,514 14,760 9,207 CA : 138 130 100.0 95.0 6,800 13,800 12,350 MN : 10 43.0 360 430 MT : 270 25.0 7,950 6,750 ND : 2,940 27.0 77,760 79,380 SD : 24 30.0 896 720 : US : 3,546 32.7 102,280 115,840 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Area harvested for U.S. and northern States will be published in "Acreage" released June 30, 1997. Yield and production will be published in "Crop Production" released July 11, 1997. Wheat: Production by Class, United States, 1995-1996 and Forecasted May 1, 1997 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Winter : Spring : :-------------------------------------------------------------: Year : Hard : Soft : : Hard : : : Total : Red : Red : White : Red : Durum : White : ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Bushels : 1995 : 825,042 455,568 264,043 475,046 102,280 60,612 2,182,591 1996 : 762,402 422,019 293,627 626,753 115,840 61,122 2,281,763 1997 : 893,927 408,858 258,685 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Wheat class estimates are based on varietal acreage survey data available for all wheat producing States. Unless unusual situations dictate, the previous end-of-season class percentages are used throughout the forecast season. Hay: Stocks on Farms, by State and United States, December 1 and May 1, 1994-97 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : December 1 : May 1 State :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1994 : 1995 : 1996 : 1995 : 1996 : 1997 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Tons : AL : 1,537 1,270 1,489 276 106 193 AZ : 133 265 82 27 28 28 AR : 2,055 1,910 1,850 426 141 231 CA : 1,642 2,250 2,594 327 361 160 CO : 2,030 2,390 1,945 447 636 203 CT : 105 78 97 32 11 13 DE : 12 9 11 10 1 6 FL : 490 397 437 132 29 31 GA : 1,170 1,050 924 371 150 302 ID : 2,263 2,794 2,285 222 660 286 IL : 1,397 1,979 1,350 540 432 304 IN : 1,097 1,584 1,131 148 216 162 IA : 4,274 4,079 3,876 751 736 718 KS : 5,080 4,590 5,600 796 787 841 KY : 5,292 4,806 4,334 648 492 627 LA : 512 513 502 97 15 126 ME : 243 272 202 61 126 57 MD : 347 265 433 20 55 84 MA : 138 115 95 28 17 13 MI : 3,020 3,166 2,514 1,074 754 460 MN : 4,895 4,374 4,018 753 694 540 MS : 1,688 1,368 1,620 206 50 160 MO : 5,755 6,000 6,159 1,016 955 830 MT : 3,950 4,931 4,674 772 858 492 NE : 5,413 4,813 5,063 1,112 1,325 968 NV : 630 750 752 42 166 60 NH : 90 82 70 26 16 12 NJ : 205 131 92 60 48 27 NM : 525 600 590 50 40 80 NY : 2,377 2,069 2,254 594 552 555 NC : 807 900 970 131 116 115 ND : 4,285 5,044 4,777 857 1,019 675 OH : 2,410 2,421 2,074 307 323 173 OK : 3,500 3,600 4,500 700 500 800 OR : 1,761 2,310 2,108 85 264 97 PA : 2,717 2,513 2,613 724 617 600 RI : 9 6 7 3 1 1 SC : 332 468 308 130 72 101 SD : 7,477 8,960 8,530 1,759 3,077 1,570 TN : 3,340 3,136 3,049 721 235 419 TX : 7,610 7,322 6,252 1,606 570 1,400 UT : 1,452 1,481 1,327 245 349 302 VT : 389 391 330 136 100 86 VA : 2,108 2,185 2,698 445 257 630 WA : 1,198 1,410 1,162 139 426 283 WV : 955 855 895 100 53 117 WI : 5,000 4,900 4,600 1,441 1,569 1,150 WY : 1,581 2,636 1,965 182 734 287 : US : 105,296 109,438 105,208 20,775 20,739 17,375 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Citrus Fruits: Utilized Production by Crop, State, and United States, 1995-96 and Forecasted May 1, 1997 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Utilized Production : Utilized Production : Boxes : Ton Equivalent Crop and State :----------------------------------------------------------- : 1994-95 : 1995-96 : 1996-97 : 1994-95 : 1995-96 : 1996-97 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 Boxes 2/ ----- ------- 1,000 Tons ------- Oranges : Early Mid & : Navel 3/ : AZ 4/ : 400 700 500 15 27 19 CA 4/ : 35,000 38,000 43,000 1,313 1,426 1,613 FL : 119,700 121,200 134,200 5,387 5,454 6,039 TX : 950 830 1,300 40 35 55 US : 156,050 160,730 179,000 6,755 6,942 7,726 Valencia : AZ 4/ : 650 950 800 24 36 30 CA 4/ : 21,000 28,000 28,000 788 1,051 1,050 FL : 85,800 82,000 90,000 3,861 3,690 4,050 TX : 105 110 120 4 4 5 US : 107,555 111,060 118,920 4,677 4,781 5,135 All : AZ 4/ : 1,050 1,650 1,300 39 63 49 CA 4/ : 56,000 66,000 71,000 2,101 2,477 2,663 FL : 205,500 203,200 224,200 9,248 9,144 10,089 TX : 1,055 940 1,420 44 39 60 US : 263,605 271,790 297,920 11,432 11,723 12,861 Temples : FL : 2,550 2,150 2,400 114 97 108 Grapefruit : White Seedless : FL : 25,700 23,200 26,500 1,092 986 1,126 Colored Seedless : FL : 28,700 28,100 31,500 1,220 1,194 1,339 Other : FL : 1,300 1,050 1,000 55 45 43 All : AZ 4/ : 1,400 1,200 1,000 47 40 34 CA 4/ 5/ : Desert : 3,300 111 Other Areas : 6,000 201 Total : 9,300 8,100 9,200 312 271 308 FL : 55,700 52,350 59,000 2,367 2,225 2,508 TX : 4,650 4,550 5,300 186 182 212 US : 71,050 66,200 74,500 2,912 2,718 3,062 Tangerines : AZ 4/ : 650 1,000 650 25 38 24 CA 4/ : 2,500 2,600 2,900 94 97 109 FL : 3,550 4,500 6,400 168 213 304 US : 6,700 8,100 9,950 287 348 437 Lemons 4/ : AZ : 3,600 5,100 3,000 137 194 114 CA : 20,000 21,000 22,000 760 798 836 US : 23,600 26,100 25,000 897 992 950 Tangelos : FL : 3,150 2,450 3,950 142 110 178 K-Early Citrus : FL : 120 160 150 5 7 7 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Citrus Fruit Footnotes 1/ The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest the following year. 2/ Net lbs. per box: oranges-AZ & CA-75, FL-90, TX-85; grapefruit-AZ & CA-67, FL-85, TX-80; lemons-76, tangelos, K-Early Citrus & Temples-90; tangerines-AZ & CA-75, FL-95. 3/ Navel and miscellaneous varieties in AZ and CA. Early (including Navel) and midseason varieties in FL and TX. Small quantities of tangerines in TX. 4/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast. 5/ California Desert and Other Areas Grapefruit forecasts combined with All Grapefruit beginning in 1995-96. Spring Potatoes: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 1995-96 and Forecasted May 1, 1997 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production State :---------------------------------------------------------------- : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 : 1997 : 1995 : 1996 : 1997 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :-- 1,000 Acres -- --- Cwt --- ----- 1,000 Cwt ----- : AL : 1.9 1.5 160 175 400 304 263 AZ : 9.0 6.2 275 275 1,755 2,475 1,705 CA : 20.1 18.6 375 385 6,230 7,538 7,161 FL : 35.5 35.3 219 215 7,830 7,765 7,591 Hastings : 27.5 26.5 230 230 5,940 6,325 6,095 Other FL : 8.0 8.8 180 170 1,890 1,440 1,496 NC : 17.0 16.5 190 195 3,053 3,230 3,218 TX : 6.5 8.0 170 195 925 1,105 1,560 : Total : 90.0 86.1 249 250 20,193 22,417 21,498 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Almonds (shelled basis): Utilized Production, California, 1995-96 and Forecasted May 1, 1997 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Utilized Production State :----------------------------------------------------------- : 1995 : 1996 1/ : 1997 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Pounds : CA : 370,000 510,000 710,000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Revised. Avocados: Bearing Acreage, Yield, Production, Price, and Value, Florida and Hawaii, 1995-97 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Bearing : Yield : Production : Utilization Year : Acreage : per :----------------------------------------------- : 1/ : Acre : Total : Utilized : Fresh : Processed -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Acres ---------------------- Tons --------------------- : FL : 1995-96 : 5,800 3.28 19,000 19,000 19,000 1996-97 : 5,700 4.12 23,500 23,500 23,500 : HI : 1995-96 : 210 1.19 250 250 250 1996-97 : 180 1.11 200 200 200 :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : Price per Ton : Value of Production :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : Fresh :Processed: All : Fresh : Processed : All :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----------- Dollars ---------- -------- 1,000 Dollars ------- : FL : 1995-96 : 596.00 596.00 11,324 11,324 1996-97 : 528.00 528.00 12,408 12,408 : HI : 1995-96 : 1,090.00 1,090.00 273 273 1996-97 : 1,070.00 1,070.00 214 214 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Bearing acreage estimates are based on periodic orchard inventory surveys. Papayas: Area and Fresh Production by Month, Hawaii, 1996-97 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area : Fresh Production :------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : Total in Crop : Harvested : : :---------------------------------------------: 1996 : 1997 : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 : 1997 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -------------- Acres -------------- 1,000 Pounds : Mar : 3,650 4,310 2,145 2,115 2,990 2,935 Apr : 3,585 4,310 2,030 2,115 2,815 2,835 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Bananas, Papayas, and Taro: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production, Hawaii, 1995-96 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield Crop :------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1995 : 1996 : 1995 : 1996 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -------- Acres ------- -------- Pounds ------- : Bananas : 930 1,040 14,000 12,500 Papayas 2/ : 2,435 1,835 20,900 22,779 Taro : 550 530 12,400 11,100 :------------------------------------------------------------------- : Total Production : Utilized Production :------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1995 : 1996 : 1995 : 1996 :------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Pounds : Bananas 3/ : 13,000 13,000 Papayas 3/ : 50,800 41,800 Taro : 6,800 5,900 6,800 5,900 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 1996 revised. 2/ Area harvested is average during the year. 3/ Only utilized production is estimated. Tobacco: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Class, Type, State, and United States, 1995-96 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production Class and Type :--------------------------------------------------------- : 1995 : 1996 : 1995 : 1996 : 1995 : 1996 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----- Acres ----- --- Pounds -- -- 1,000 Pounds -- : Class 1, Flue-cured : Type 11, Old Belts : NC : 68,000 76,000 1,920 2,120 130,560 161,120 VA : 34,000 37,700 1,935 2,235 65,790 84,260 US : 102,000 113,700 1,925 2,158 196,350 245,380 Type 12, Eastern NC : Belt : NC : 151,000 167,000 1,860 2,025 280,860 338,175 Type 13, NC Border & : SC Belt : NC : 34,000 37,000 1,845 1,980 62,730 73,260 SC : 50,000 51,000 2,100 2,310 105,000 117,810 US : 84,000 88,000 1,997 2,171 167,730 191,070 Type 14, GA-FL Belt : FL : 7,200 7,500 2,455 2,680 17,676 20,100 GA : 42,000 46,000 2,000 2,470 84,000 113,620 US : 49,200 53,500 2,067 2,499 101,676 133,720 Total 11-14 : 386,200 422,200 1,933 2,151 746,616 908,345 Class 2, Fire-cured : Type 21, VA Belt : VA : 1,100 1,100 1,400 1,580 1,540 1,738 Type 22, Eastern : District : KY : 3,900 3,800 2,370 2,720 9,243 10,336 TN : 7,600 7,500 2,285 2,550 17,366 19,125 US : 11,500 11,300 2,314 2,607 26,609 29,461 Type 23, Western : District : KY : 3,700 3,600 2,600 3,160 9,620 11,376 TN : 580 580 2,450 2,850 1,421 1,653 US : 4,280 4,180 2,580 3,117 11,041 13,029 Total 21-23 : 16,880 16,580 2,322 2,668 39,190 44,228 Class 3, Air-cured : Class 3A, Light : Air-cured : Type 31, Burley : IN : 6,700 7,600 2,030 1,970 13,601 14,972 KY : 155,000 185,000 1,950 1,980 302,250 366,300 MO : 2,700 2,700 2,025 2,230 5,468 6,021 NC : 8,100 7,800 1,290 1,665 10,449 12,987 OH : 7,700 8,000 1,950 1,580 15,015 12,640 TN : 43,000 46,000 1,700 1,915 73,100 88,090 VA : 9,000 9,500 1,540 1,835 13,860 17,433 WV : 2,000 1,700 1,300 1,200 2,600 2,040 US : 234,200 268,300 1,863 1,940 436,343 520,483 Type 32, Southern MD : Belt : MD : 8,500 8,000 1,350 1,250 11,475 10,000 PA 2/ : 3,400 3,200 1,900 1,900 6,460 6,080 US : 11,900 11,200 1,507 1,436 17,935 16,080 Total 31-32 : 246,100 279,500 1,846 1,920 454,278 536,563 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- See footnotes at end of table. --continued Tobacco: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Class, Type, State, and United States, 1995-96 1/ (continued) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production Class and Type :--------------------------------------------------------- : 1995 : 1996 : 1995 : 1996 : 1995 : 1996 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----- Acres ----- --- Pounds -- --- 1,000 Pounds --- : Class 3, Air-cured : Class 3B, Dark : Air-cured : Type 35, One Sucker : Belt : KY : 2,300 2,100 2,060 2,340 4,738 4,914 TN : 510 480 2,000 2,125 1,020 1,020 US : 2,810 2,580 2,049 2,300 5,758 5,934 Type 36, Green River : Belt : KY : 1,300 1,200 2,100 2,180 2,730 2,616 Type 37, VA Sun-cured: Belt : VA : 70 70 1,125 1,600 79 112 Total 35-37 : 4,180 3,850 2,050 2,250 8,567 8,662 Class 4, Cigar Filler : Type 41, PA Seedleaf : PA : 4,500 4,600 2,050 2,040 9,225 9,384 Class 5, Cigar Binder : Class 5A, CT Valley : Binder : Type 51, CT Valley : Broadleaf : CT : 1,000 1,220 1,980 1,840 1,980 2,245 MA : 240 410 1,920 1,600 461 656 US : 1,240 1,630 1,969 1,780 2,441 2,901 Class 5B, WI Binder : Type 54, Southern WI: WI : 1,900 1,900 2,375 1,900 4,513 3,610 Type 55, Northern WI: WI : 860 1,000 1,985 1,535 1,707 1,535 Total 54-55 : 2,760 2,900 2,254 1,774 6,220 5,145 Total 51-55 : 4,000 4,530 2,165 1,776 8,661 8,046 Class 6, Cigar Wrapper: Type 61, CT Valley : Shade-grown : CT : 990 1,040 1,560 1,490 1,544 1,550 MA : 275 390 1,660 1,425 457 556 US : 1,265 1,430 1,582 1,473 2,001 2,106 All Cigar Types : Total 41-61 : 9,765 10,560 2,037 1,850 19,887 19,536 : All Tobacco : 663,125 732,690 1,913 2,071 1,268,538 1,517,334 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 1996 revised. 2/ Estimates carried forward from "Crop Production" Annual Summary released January 10, 1997. Tobacco: Price and Value by Class, Type, State, and United States, 1995-96 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Price per : Value of : Pound : Production Class and Type :--------------------------------------------------------- : 1995 : 1996 : 1995 : 1996 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----- Dollars ----- ----- 1,000 Dollars ---- : Class 1, Flue-cured : Type 11, Old Belts : NC : 1.805 1.860 235,661 299,683 VA : 1.807 1.871 118,883 157,650 US : 1.806 1.864 354,544 457,333 Type 12, Eastern NC : Belt : NC : 1.800 1.830 505,548 618,860 Type 13, NC Border & : SC Belt : NC : 1.768 1.810 110,907 132,601 SC : 1.779 1.822 186,795 214,650 US : 1.775 1.817 297,702 347,251 Type 14, GA-FL Belt : FL : 1.761 1.808 31,127 36,341 GA : 1.759 1.813 147,756 205,993 US : 1.759 1.812 178,883 242,334 Total 11-14 : 1.790 1.834 1,336,677 1,665,778 Class 2, Fire-cured : Type 21, VA Belt : VA : 1.640 1.790 2,526 3,111 Type 22, Eastern : District : KY : 2.178 2.246 20,131 23,215 TN : 2.185 2.252 37,945 43,070 US : 2.183 2.250 58,076 66,285 Type 23, Western : District : KY : 2.145 2.233 20,635 25,403 TN : 2.154 2.227 3,061 3,681 US : 2.146 2.232 23,696 29,084 Total 21-23 : 2.151 2.227 84,298 98,480 Class 3, Air-cured : Class 3A, Light : Air-cured : Type 31, Burley : IN : 1.860 1.920 25,298 28,746 KY : 1.857 1.922 561,278 704,029 MO : 1.834 1.918 10,028 11,548 NC : 1.843 1.920 19,258 24,935 OH : 1.861 1.926 27,943 24,345 TN : 1.845 1.920 134,870 169,133 VA : 1.843 1.920 25,544 33,471 WV : 1.855 1.923 4,823 3,923 US : 1.854 1.922 809,042 1,000,130 Type 32, Southern MD : Belt : MD : 1.670 1.920 19,163 19,200 PA : 1.400 1.750 9,044 10,640 US : 1.573 1.856 28,207 29,840 Total 31-32 : 1.843 1.920 837,249 1,029,970 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- See footnotes at end of table. --continued Tobacco: Price and Value by Class, Type, State, and United States, 1995-96 1/ (continued) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Price per : Value of : Pound : Production Class and Type :--------------------------------------------------------- : 1995 : 1996 : 1995 : 1996 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----- Dollars ----- ----- 1,000 Dollars ---- : Class 3, Air-cured : Class 3B, Dark : Air-cured : Type 35, One Sucker : Belt : KY : 1.774 1.945 8,405 9,558 TN : 1.756 1.915 1,791 1,953 US : 1.771 1.940 10,196 11,511 Type 36, Green River : Belt : KY : 1.745 1.979 4,764 5,937 Type 37, VA Sun-cured: Belt : VA : 1.555 1.782 123 200 Total 35-37 : 1.761 1.951 15,083 17,648 Class 4, Cigar Filler : Type 41, PA Seedleaf : PA : 1.450 1.550 13,376 14,545 Class 5, Cigar Binder : Class 5A, CT Valley : Binder : Type 51, CT Valley : Broadleaf : CT : 3.850 6.200 7,623 13,919 MA : 4.050 6.550 1,867 4,297 US : 3.890 6.280 9,490 18,216 Class 5B, WI Binder : Type 54, Southern WI: WI : 1.450 1.480 6,544 5,343 Type 55, Northern WI: WI : 1.450 1.500 2,475 2,303 Total 54-55 : 1.450 1.486 9,019 7,646 Total 51-55 : 2.137 3.214 18,509 25,862 Class 6, Cigar Wrapper: Type 61, CT Valley : Shade-grown : CT 2/ : MA 2/ : US 2/ : All Cigar Types : Total 41-55 2/ : 1.783 2.318 31,885 40,407 : All Tobacco 2/ : 1.820 1.882 2,305,192 2,852,283 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 1996 revised; 1995 VA types 21 and 37 revised. 2/ CT and MA Type 61 price and value not published to avoid disclosure; not included in All Cigar Types or All Tobacco. Tobacco: Area Harvested, Yield, Production, Price, and Value by State and United States, 1995-96 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production State :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1995 : 1996 : 1995 : 1996 : 1995 : 1996 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ Acres ------ ---- Pounds --- ----- 1,000 Pounds ---- : CT : 1,990 2,260 1,771 1,679 3,524 3,795 FL : 7,200 7,500 2,455 2,680 17,676 20,100 GA : 42,000 46,000 2,000 2,470 84,000 113,620 IN : 6,700 7,600 2,030 1,970 13,601 14,972 KY : 166,200 195,700 1,977 2,021 328,581 395,542 MD : 8,500 8,000 1,350 1,250 11,475 10,000 MA : 515 800 1,783 1,515 918 1,212 MO : 2,700 2,700 2,025 2,230 5,468 6,021 NC : 261,100 287,800 1,856 2,035 484,599 585,542 OH : 7,700 8,000 1,950 1,580 15,015 12,640 PA : 7,900 7,800 1,985 1,983 15,685 15,464 SC : 50,000 51,000 2,100 2,310 105,000 117,810 TN : 51,690 54,560 1,797 2,014 92,907 109,888 VA : 44,170 48,370 1,840 2,141 81,269 103,543 WV : 2,000 1,700 1,300 1,200 2,600 2,040 WI : 2,760 2,900 2,254 1,774 6,220 5,145 : US : 663,125 732,690 1,913 2,071 1,268,538 1,517,334 :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : Price : Value of : per Pound : Production :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1995 : 1996 : 1995 : 1996 :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------- Dollars ------- ------ 1,000 Dollars ------ : CT 2/ : 3.850 6.200 7,623 13,919 FL : 1.761 1.808 31,127 36,341 GA : 1.759 1.813 147,756 205,993 IN : 1.860 1.920 25,298 28,746 KY : 1.872 1.940 615,213 768,142 MD : 1.670 1.920 19,163 19,200 MA 2/ : 4.050 6.550 1,867 4,297 MO : 1.834 1.918 10,028 11,548 NC : 1.798 1.838 871,374 1,076,079 OH : 1.861 1.926 27,943 24,345 PA : 1.429 1.629 22,420 25,185 SC : 1.779 1.822 186,795 214,650 TN : 1.912 1.982 177,667 217,837 VA : 1.810 1.878 147,076 194,432 WV : 1.855 1.923 4,823 3,923 WI : 1.450 1.486 9,019 7,646 : US : 1.820 1.882 2,305,192 2,852,283 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 1996 revised; 1995 VA revised. 2/ CT and MA Type 61 price and value not published to avoid disclosure; not included in U.S. total. Cotton: Area Planted and Harvested and Yield by Type, State, and United States, 1995-96 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area : Area : Type : Planted : Harvested : Yield and :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : 1995 : 1996 : 1995 : 1996 : 1995 : 1996 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : --------------- 1,000 Acres -------------- ----- Pounds ---- : Upland : AL : 590.0 520.0 578.0 516.0 409 734 AZ : 365.0 315.0 364.0 314.0 1,046 1,189 AR : 1,170.0 1,000.0 1,110.0 990.0 635 793 CA : 1,170.0 1,000.0 1,165.0 995.0 953 1,153 FL : 110.0 99.0 109.0 98.2 472 637 GA : 1,500.0 1,340.0 1,490.0 1,336.0 625 747 KS : 3.8 4.5 2.6 4.0 185 492 LA : 1,085.0 890.0 1,075.0 885.0 614 697 MS : 1,460.0 1,120.0 1,420.0 1,100.0 622 819 MO : 462.0 390.0 453.0 385.0 544 737 NM : 61.0 59.0 56.0 55.0 609 733 NC : 805.0 721.0 800.0 710.0 479 677 OK : 380.0 290.0 315.0 210.0 187 306 SC : 348.0 284.0 342.0 282.0 528 774 TN : 700.0 540.0 660.0 530.0 527 611 TX : 6,400.0 5,700.0 5,750.0 4,100.0 372 509 VA : 107.0 103.0 106.0 102.0 620 748 : US : 16,716.8 14,375.5 15,795.6 12,612.2 533 701 : Amer-Pima: AZ : 48.6 42.0 48.1 41.9 720 852 CA : 115.0 165.0 115.0 164.0 937 1,098 NM : 15.0 14.0 15.0 14.0 605 651 TX : 36.0 37.0 33.0 36.0 756 801 : US : 214.6 258.0 211.1 255.9 836 991 : All : AL : 590.0 520.0 578.0 516.0 409 734 AZ : 413.6 357.0 412.1 355.9 1,008 1,150 AR : 1,170.0 1,000.0 1,110.0 990.0 635 793 CA : 1,285.0 1,165.0 1,280.0 1,159.0 951 1,145 FL : 110.0 99.0 109.0 98.2 472 637 GA : 1,500.0 1,340.0 1,490.0 1,336.0 625 747 KS : 3.8 4.5 2.6 4.0 185 492 LA : 1,085.0 890.0 1,075.0 885.0 614 697 MS : 1,460.0 1,120.0 1,420.0 1,100.0 622 819 MO : 462.0 390.0 453.0 385.0 544 737 NM : 76.0 73.0 71.0 69.0 608 717 NC : 805.0 721.0 800.0 710.0 479 677 OK : 380.0 290.0 315.0 210.0 187 306 SC : 348.0 284.0 342.0 282.0 528 774 TN : 700.0 540.0 660.0 530.0 527 611 TX : 6,436.0 5,737.0 5,783.0 4,136.0 375 511 VA : 107.0 103.0 106.0 102.0 620 748 : US : 16,931.4 14,633.5 16,006.7 12,868.1 537 707 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 1996 revised. Cotton: Production and Bales Ginned by Type, State, and United States, 1995-96 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Production in : Lint- : Bales Ginned in Type : 480-lb Net Weight : seed : 480-lb Net Weight and : Bales 1/ : Ratio 2/ : Bales 3/ State :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1995 : 1996 4/ : 1995 : 1996 : 1995 : 1996 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : --- 1,000 Bales --- -------- Bales -------- : Upland : AL : 492.0 789.0 476,000 781,700 AZ : 793.0 778.0 780,050 762,200 AR : 1,468.0 1,636.0 1,471,450 1,621,350 CA : 2,312.0 2,390.0 2,325,950 2,404,250 FL 5/ : 107.2 130.4 GA : 1,941.0 2,079.0 1,961,800 2,102,850 KS 5/ : 1.0 4.1 LA : 1,375.0 1,286.0 1,394,700 1,322,150 MS : 1,841.0 1,876.0 1,846,000 1,866,450 MO : 513.0 591.0 484,150 565,500 NM : 71.0 84.0 55,850 75,250 NC : 798.0 1,002.0 810,950 1,013,700 OK : 123.0 134.0 120,450 127,650 SC : 376.0 455.0 356,400 440,800 TN : 724.0 675.0 724,000 677,400 TX : 4,460.0 4,345.0 4,472,950 4,354,150 VA : 137.0 159.0 130,750 155,250 : US : 17,532.2 18,413.5 17,522,550 18,400,550 : Amer-Pima: AZ : 72.2 74.4 72,650 74,800 CA : 224.5 375.0 224,100 374,150 NM : 18.9 19.0 14,150 14,650 TX : 52.0 60.1 56,550 64,400 : US : 367.6 528.5 367,450 528,000 : All : AL : 492.0 789.0 476,000 781,700 AZ : 865.2 852.4 852,700 837,000 AR : 1,468.0 1,636.0 0.373 0.378 1,471,450 1,621,350 CA : 2,536.5 2,765.0 0.395 0.394 2,550,050 2,778,400 FL 5/ : 107.2 130.4 GA : 1,941.0 2,079.0 1,961,800 2,102,850 KS 5/ : 1.0 4.1 LA : 1,375.0 1,286.0 0.397 0.393 1,394,700 1,322,150 MS : 1,841.0 1,876.0 0.376 0.379 1,846,000 1,866,450 MO : 513.0 591.0 484,150 565,500 NM : 89.9 103.0 70,000 89,900 NC : 798.0 1,002.0 810,950 1,013,700 OK : 123.0 134.0 120,450 127,650 SC : 376.0 455.0 356,400 440,800 TN : 724.0 675.0 724,000 677,400 TX : 4,512.0 4,405.1 0.366 0.368 4,529,500 4,418,550 VA : 137.0 159.0 130,750 155,250 : US : 17,899.8 18,942.0 17,890,000 18,928,550 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Production ginned and to be ginned. 2/ Estimates available only for the five states shown. Three-year average. 3/ Equivalent 480-lb net weight bales ginned, not adjusted for cross-State movement. 4/ 1996 revised. 5/ Bales withheld to avoid disclosure of individual gins, but are included in U.S. totals. Cottonseed: Production and Farm Disposition, by State and United States, 1995-96 1/ ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Farm Disposition : : :-----------------------------------: : : Sales to : : Used for State: Production : Oil Mills : Other 2/ : Planting 3/ :---------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1995 : 1996 : 1995 : 1996 : 1995 : 1996 : 1996 : 1997 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Tons : AL : 162.0 273.0 61.0 95.0 101.0 178.0 6.0 6.3 AZ : 334.0 324.0 162.0 124.0 172.0 200.0 3.2 3.2 AR : 580.0 635.0 504.0 596.0 76.0 39.0 9.5 9.2 CA : 940.0 1,020.0 338.0 134.0 602.0 886.0 9.9 9.2 FL 4/: 38.0 46.0 16.0 26.0 22.0 20.0 1.1 1.1 GA : 674.0 681.0 231.0 329.0 443.0 352.0 16.1 16.8 KS 4/: 0.3 1.4 0.0 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.1 LA : 499.0 499.0 380.0 340.0 119.0 159.0 8.0 6.0 MS : 727.0 735.0 672.0 681.0 55.0 54.0 11.2 11.0 MO : 221.0 234.0 180.0 188.0 41.0 46.0 4.1 4.4 NM : 33.4 38.1 3.1 6.8 30.3 31.3 0.7 0.7 NC : 282.0 343.0 23.0 38.0 259.0 305.0 6.5 6.3 OK : 56.0 56.0 48.0 52.0 8.0 4.0 3.2 2.0 SC : 132.0 155.0 97.0 100.0 35.0 55.0 2.0 2.1 TN : 292.0 262.0 263.0 212.0 29.0 50.0 5.7 5.7 TX :1,828.0 1,784.0 1,461.0 1,440.0 367.0 344.0 57.4 59.3 VA : 50.0 57.0 0.0 0.0 50.0 57.0 0.9 1.0 : US :6,848.7 7,143.5 4,439.1 4,363.2 2,409.6 2,780.3 145.5 144.4 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 1995 crop revised, 1996 crop preliminary. 2/ Includes planting seed, feed, exports, inter-farm sales, shrinkage, loss and other uses. 3/ Included in "other" farm disposition. Planting seed from previous years' crops. 4/ FL seed for planting includes 45 tons for KS in 1996. Cotton: Cumulative Large Bolls and Harvesting Loss The National Agricultural Statistics Service conducted cotton objective yield surveys in 5 States which accounted for 63 percent of the 1996 U.S. Upland cotton production. Plots were randomly selected from a scientific sample of cotton fields. Two sample plots per field were visited monthly from about August 1 through harvest to obtain specific counts and measurements. The "large bolls" are total bolls counted from August through harvest. This count includes only bolls greater than one inch in diameter and burrs. Cotton: Cumulative Large Bolls and Harvesting Loss by State, 1987-1996 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Arkansas : California :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Year : : Harvest : : Harvest : Large Bolls : Loss : Large Bolls : Loss : 1/ : Per Acre : 1/ : Per Acre ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number Pounds Number Pounds : 1987 : 603 77 821 128 1988 : 717 63 797 137 1989 : 578 57 802 125 1990 : 669 74 843 131 1991 : 782 89 814 110 1992 : 817 73 819 116 1993 : 753 105 839 122 1994 : 812 83 806 133 1995 : 689 66 680 105 1996 : 741 64 758 165 :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : Louisiana : Mississippi :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1987 : 719 89 777 81 1988 : 710 73 726 86 1989 : 708 83 710 90 1990 : 888 78 693 93 1991 : 770 68 726 90 1992 : 875 60 708 84 1993 : 661 65 608 76 1994 : 748 75 760 99 1995 : 615 49 607 78 1996 : 623 52 741 82 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Total large bolls in 40 feet of row. -- continued Cotton: Cumulative Large Bolls and Harvesting Loss by State, 1987-96 (continued) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Texas :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Year : : Harvest : Large Bolls : Loss : 1/ : Per Acre ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number Pounds : 1987 : 473 34 1988 : 463 34 1989 : 369 32 1990 : 489 39 1991 : 430 41 1992 : 489 53 1993 : 489 36 1994 : 486 41 1995 : 415 36 1996 : 505 39 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Total large bolls in 40 feet of row. Tobacco: Farm Marketings, Percent of Sales by Class, Month, and State, 1996 Marketing Year ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Class : 1996 : 1997 and :------------------------------------------------------------------ State : Jul : Aug : Sep : Oct : Nov : Dec : Jan : Feb : Mar : Apr :Total ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Percent Flue-cured : FL : 12 34 30 24 100 GA : 12 33 30 25 100 NC : 4 34 33 29 100 SC : 8 35 30 27 100 VA : 22 31 47 100 : Fire-cured : VA : 91 9 100 KY : 63 29 6 2 100 TN : 55 35 8 2 100 : Air-cured : IN : 12 58 26 4 100 KY : 15 62 19 4 100 MD : 100 100 MO : 28 55 17 100 NC : 21 72 7 100 OH : 15 54 31 100 PA 1/ : TN : 20 73 7 100 VA : 22 74 4 100 WV : 30 45 25 100 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Sales by month are not available. Crop Moisture Depicts short term (up to about 4 weeks) abnormal dryness or wetness affecting Agriculture, responds rapidly, can change considerably week to week, and indicates normal conditions at the beginning and end of the growing season. Uses...applicable in measuring the short term, week-to-week, status of dryness or wetness affecting warm season crops and field operations. Limitations...may not be applicable to germination and shallow rooted crops which are unable to extract the deep or subsoil moisture from a 5-foot profile, or for cool season crops growing when temperatures are averaging below about 55 degrees fahrenheit. It is not generally indicative of the long term (months, years) drought or wet spells which are depicted by the drought severity index. Drought Severity Drought severity index (Palmer): Depicts prolonged (months, years) abnormal dryness or wetness; responds slowly; changes little from week to week; and reflects long term moisture runoff, recharge, and deep percolation, as well as evaportranspiration. Uses...applicable in measuring disruptive effects of prolonged dryness or wetness on water sensitive economies; designating disaster areas of drought or wetness and reflecting the general long-term status of water supplies in aquifers, reservoirs, and streams. Limitations...is not generally indicative of short-term (few weeks) status of drought or wetness such as frequently affects crops and field operations (this is indicated by the crop moisture index). April Weather Summary: A month of major storms and massive runoff resulted in an April filled with temperature and rainfall/snowfall records, freeze damage, and unprecedented flooding. A prolonged cold snap in the wake of an early-April blizzard damaged jointing- to heading-stage winter wheat from southern Kansas to northern Texas, and helped to hold monthly temperatures 4 to 8 degrees F below normal throughout the Plains. Monthly readings ranged from 2 to 6 degrees F below normal across the East and Midwest. Only the desert Southwest, southern Florida, and the immediate West Coast experienced above-normal temperatures. The early-month blizzard added an unwelcomed 1 to 3 inches of moisture to the James and Red River basins, where major-to-record flooding was already anticipated. In eastern South Dakota, most crests on the James River occurred during the first 7 days of the month due to late-March snowmelt. The Red River surged to record levels after snowmelt began anew around mid-month. In Grand Forks, ND, where floodwaters overwhelmed most of the city, the Red River crested on April 22, 5.3 feet higher than ever before observed. The record-setting Red River crest moved from Wahpeton, ND, on April 15, to Pembina, ND, on April 28. From Anoka, MN to Lansing, IA, water levels peaked on the main-stem Mississippi River between April 10 and 15, exceeding those observed during June 1993, but remaining 2.1 to 4.6 feet below all-time records set in April 1965. The severe freeze on the Plains resulted in several records. On April 12, minima dipped to April-record levels in Casper, WY (-6 degrees F), Pueblo, CO (2 degrees F), and Russell, KS (14 degrees F). In Texas, lows of 27 degrees F in Abilene (on April 13) and San Angelo (on April 14) were their respective lowest readings so late in the spring. Texas' cloudy, cool regime resulted in several April average-temperature records: Texas Location Average (degrees F)/Departure Former Record/Year San Angelo 59.2, -7.6 60.6 in 1973 Dallas-Ft. Worth 60.4, -3.8 60.6 in 1983 Waco 60.6, -6.5 61.1 in 1973 San Antonio 63.9, -5.5 64.2 in 1931 Three days before the cold weather peaked on the Plains, an April-record chill dotted the Midwest. On April 9, monthly records were tied or broken in Cincinnati, OH (15 degrees F), Champaign, IL (16 degrees F), and Indianapolis, IN (18 degrees F). A day later, temperatures in the lower- to mid-20's damaged some fruit-tree blooms in the Middle Atlantic region. Farther south, frost and near-freezing temperatures on April 1-2, 9-10, and 14-15 resulted in scattered damage to blooms across the Southeast. At many locations, the persistent chill held temperatures to the lowest April levels in many years, including: Location Average (degrees F)/Departure Coolest April Since... Pittsburgh, PA 46.2, -3.5 45.3 in 1982 Grand Junction, CO 46.5, -5.7 46.4 in 1975 Louisville, KY 50.1, -6.2 49.2 in 1961 Evansville, IN 50.5, -5.7 47.8 in 1907 Wichita, KS 51.0, -5.4 48.0 in 1983 Abilene, TX 58.9, -6.1 58.7 in 1973 After a relatively placid winter, unsettled weather returned to the Northeast in the form of two major storms (March 31 - April 1 and April 18-19). On March 31 - April 1 in Massachusetts, an all-time record 33.0 inches of snow fell in Worcester, while 30.0 inches, accompanied by wind gusts to 73 mph, blanketed Milton (Blue Hill Observatory). East Jewett, NY tallied a total of 37.0 inches. The latter storm dumped another 17.0 inches on East Jewett, and 8.5 inches on Burlington, VT, their greatest 1-day total so late in the season. In eastern Massachusetts, Nantucket clocked a wind gust to 87 mph on April 19. While the April Fool's Day storm departed the Northeast, a spring blizzard evolved over the Southwest before heading northeastward. In Flagstaff, AZ, 28.0 inches of snow fell on April 2--a 1-day April record--en route to a storm total of 44.3 inches. Three days later, snow on the Plains was driven by winds that reached 69 mph in Rapid City, SD and an April-record 68 mph in Scottsbluff, NE. Storm-total snowfall reached 17.3 inches in Bismarck, ND. Heavy snow fell on the central Plains and the Midwest on April 8-12, helping to set several monthly records. On April 25, locally heavy snow whitened the southern Plains, including 6.5 inches in Amarillo, TX, resulting in the last of several monthly snowfall records: Location Total (Inches) Former Record/Year Worcester, MA 24.0 21.0 in 1987 Boston, MA 22.4 13.3 in 1982 Providence, RI 18.0 9.6 in 1907 Omaha, NE 13.8 10.3 in 1983 Moline, IL 13.3 13.0 in 1982 Lincoln, NE 11.1 10.5 in 1945 Amarillo, TX 6.5 6.4 in 1947 The Plains blizzard wrapped up one of the snowiest seasons on record across the North Central States: Seasonal Snowfall Records (Inches), 1996-97 Updated through April 30, 1997 Location Total Date Set Former Record Fargo, ND 117.0 March 3 89.1 in 1993-94 Alpena, MI 185.5 March 14 166.3 in 1970-71 Rochester, MN 84.6 March 14 77.5 in 1950-51 Marquette, MI 263.1 March 22 251.4 in 1995-96 Bismarck, ND 101.6 April 5 91.8 in 1993-94 Billings, MT 101.8 April 7 93.8 in 1954-55 Except for the Plains blizzard, the prevailing jet stream guided storms from the Northwest into the central or southern Plains, and across the East. For the second consecutive month, record rainfall pelted Victoria, TX. On April 4-5, Shreveport, LA measured their sixth-greatest 24-hour rainfall (7.81 inches) on record. By April 30, year-to-date rainfall reached 33.21 inches (219 percent of normal) in Shreveport and 28.78 inches (354 percent) in Victoria. The active storm track erased all but a few pockets of dryness across the Southeast and the central High Plains. Monthly rainfall records were established at a few sites: Location Total (Inches) Former Record/Year Kodiak, AK 12.09 not available Victoria, TX 11.70 11.09 in 1991 Tampa, FL 10.71 8.04 in 1920 Amarillo, TX 6.45 5.47 in 1900 Grand Junction, CO 2.15 1.95 in 1965 Several other locations in Texas notched their wettest April in at least 20 years: Texas Location Total (Inches) Wettest April Since... Corpus Christi, TX 5.94 6.00 in 1977 Lubbock, TX 5.79 6.18 in 1915 San Antonio, TX 5.73 8.80 in 1977 Austin, TX 5.59 6.08 in 1977 In contrast, the wet season ended on a dry note in California, where little precipitation fell after January. At the Los Angeles Civic Center, February-April rainfall totaled 0.08 inches (1 percent of normal). Similarly, a record-low 1.12 inches fell during the 3-month period in downtown Sacramento, eclipsing their 1964 standard. Drier-than-normal weather also prevailed during April throughout much of the Midwest and Northeast: Location Total (Inches) Driest April Since... L.A. Civic Center, CA 0.00 0.00 in 1970 Harrisburg, PA 0.92 0.45 in 1985 Ft. Wayne, IN 1.04 0.72 in 1947 South Bend, IN 1.36 0.50 in 1970 Spring arrived early in Alaska, including the earliest 60-degree day on record in Fairbanks (61 degrees F on April 6). Statewide, monthly temperatures averaged 1 to 10 degrees F above normal. Wet weather was restricted primarily to southern parts of the State, where totals reached a record 12.09 inches in Kodiak and 4.41 inches in Juneau. Above-normal rainfall in Hawaii was confined to westernmost areas. General Crop Comments: April started with unseasonably cold, wet weather in most of the United States and gradually warmed and dried as the month progressed. Early-month rain and snow compounded flooding problems that already existed in the Red River Valley because of record snowfall in North Dakota, South Dakota, and Minnesota. Saturated soils delayed the start of spring wheat, barley, and oat planting and kept farmers out of fields until the end of the month. Small grain planting in the Northwest also progressed behind the 5-year average as cool, damp weather prevailed. However, conditions were ideal in the eastern Great Lakes and farmers planted oats at a faster-than- normal pace. Cool soils and wet weather prevented farmers in the Mississippi, Tennessee, and Ohio Valleys from planting spring crops. Even though soils were still cool, planting accelerated later in the month as the soils dried in the Corn Belt. Corn planting was progressing at or near a record pace in Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio by the last week in April. Soils in Tennessee, Kentucky, Virginia, and North Carolina remained cool and wet, slowing planting the entire month. Heavy rains in the Gulf Coast States caused localized flooding and limited fieldwork. Cotton, peanut, and rice planting lagged further behind average as the month continued. Reminiscent of 1995, below-freezing temperatures during April 11-13 damaged the winter wheat crop in the southern Plains. Farmers and agronomists were in fields evaluating the effects of the freeze, but the full extent of the damage was difficult to determine. Condition of the Kansas wheat crop dropped significantly after the freeze, but improved later as damage was found to be limited to the southern part of the State. Oklahoma and Texas farmers found more damage in their further-advanced crop. The condition of the crop in both States declined significantly after the freeze. An area extending from Florida northward to North Carolina, started out dry, then turned wet. Winter wheat developed rapidly and planting of spring crops progressed ahead of the normal pace. At mid-month, farmers stopped planting spring crops because soils were too dry. The winter wheat condition in Georgia declined as the crop became stressed. Beneficial moisture finally fell at the end of the month. Cotton planting progressed well in California and Arizona as these were the only States to record above-normal temperatures for April. Winter Wheat: Winter wheat area for grain harvest this year is forecast at 40.8 million acres, up 3 percent from 1996, but just less than the 1995 final. A hard freeze hit portions of Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, and Colorado April 11-13. Considerable damage was evident, but assessment of crop loss is continuing. This same area also suffered a mid-April freeze in 1995. The Hard Red Winter (HRW) wheat area for grain is expected to be up 9 percent from last year. Soft Red Winter (SRW) wheat is estimated to be down 10 percent from last year and White Winter wheat area is about 6 percent less than a year ago. Prior to the freeze, expectations for the central and southern Plains HRW crop were well above average. Condition ratings fell the week following the freeze, but have started to improve. Nebraska's major growing area had minimal winterkill, but needed moisture. The Montana crop was protected by ample snow cover. Severe winterkill has been reported in areas of southern South Dakota. Yield expectations are down from last year's records in Idaho and Oregon. Prospects are for yields much higher than last year in Michigan and New York. The Southeastern SRW is developing ahead of average progress, but yield forecasts are generally down. Forecasted head counts from the Objective Yield surveys in Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas are above average and similar to 1995 levels. Durum Wheat: Production of Durum wheat in Arizona and California is forecast at 21.6 million bushels. This is down 25 percent from the Desert Durum' production of last year. Arizona's production drop is the main reason for the collective decline; acreage is down sharply. Condition ratings are good to excellent in both States. Nearly all of Arizona's wheat is headed with western and central fields turning color. Average yields have been reported so far in California's Imperial Valley where harvest began in late April. San Joaquin Valley fields were turning color May 1. Harvest should start there later this month. Hay Stocks on Farms: Stocks of all hay on farms totaled 17.4 million tons on May 1, 1997, down 16 percent from May 1 of the previous year. A 3 percent decline in 1996 hay production, combined with one of the harshest winters on record in the upper mid-west, contributed to the lowest May 1 stocks in 32 years. Disappearance of hay from December 1, 1996 - May 1, 1997, totaled 87.8 million tons, 1 percent lower than the 1995 crop disappearance of 88.7 million tons for the same period. Stocks of hay on May 1, 1997 were lower compared to last year in 27 of the 48 estimating States. Heavy snow and bitterly cold temperatures during the winter and spring months across the northern half of the United States forced livestock producers to increase feeding of hay. December 1996 - May 1997 hay disappearance of 4.1 million tons was the highest on record in North Dakota and May 1 hay stocks in Colorado were the lowest since 1940. Stocks were higher in the Southeast and Central Plains and many States in the Northeast. An increase in hay production, a mild winter, and reduced cattle numbers were the main reasons given for those increases in stocks. Almonds: The first forecast of 1997 California almond production is 710 million pounds, shelled basis. Production is up 39 percent from last year's revised figure of 510 million pounds. Bearing acreage totaled 420,000, up 4 percent from 1996's revised acreage of 405,000. Spring weather was relatively warm and mild, and bloom reports were excellent Statewide. Fruit set throughout the State has been heavy. Avocados: Florida avocado production for the 1996-97 season totaled 23,500 tons, up 24 percent from last season. The crop increased primarily because of good fruit set and ideal growing conditions. Bearing acreage, at 5,700 acres, was down 2 percent from the 1995-96 level. The value of Florida avocados for the 1996-97 season totaled $12.4 million, up 10 percent from the previous season. The 1996-97 Hawaii avocado crop totaled 200 tons, down 20 percent from last season. The crop decreased because of poor growing conditions. A dry spring caused uneven yields to occur on the island of Hawaii, the State's major producing area. Bearing acreage, at 180 acres, was down 14 percent from the 1995-96 season. The value of Hawaii avocados for the 1996-97 season totaled $214,000, down 22 percent from last season. Unfavorable market conditions also caused the drop in total value. Papayas: Hawaii fresh papaya production for April 1997 is estimated at 2.84 million pounds. This was 3 percent lower than March, but 1 percent higher than April 1996. Weather conditions in April were a mix of sunshine and showers over major papaya producing orchards. Papaya ring spot virus continued to depress yields in infected fields. Area devoted to papaya production totaled 4,310 acres in April. This was unchanged from March but 20 percent more than a year ago. Harvested area, totaling 2,115 acres, was unchanged from last month, but 4 percent higher than March 1996. Fresh papaya production for 1996 was estimated at 41.8 million pounds, 18 percent lower than 1995 production. Area harvested, at 1,835 acres, was 25 percent lower than the previous year. Bananas: Hawaii banana production is estimated at 13.0 million pounds for 1996, unchanged from the previous year. Windy weather and cooler temperatures at the beginning and end of the year slowed orchard progress and curtailed output. A seasonal peak in August helped offset lower production earlier in the year. New plantings on Hawaii and Oahu islands are expected to increase the market share of local bananas. Taro: Hawaii taro production was estimated at 5.9 million pounds for 1996, down 13 percent from 1995. The area in crop was estimated at 530 acres for 1996, down 4 percent from 1995. All of the decline in acreage was accounted for by a 10 percent decline in Chinese taro acreage to 180 acres. Acreage for poi remained unchanged at 350 acres. Weather conditions adversely affected both the poi and Chinese taro harvests. Unusually wet weather caused the decline in poi taro yields on Kauai, the State's major producing area. Dry weather, insects, and disease combined to reduce the Chinese taro harvest on the island of Hawaii, the State's major producer of that type of taro. Grapefruit: The May 1 forecast of the 1996-97 U.S. grapefruit crop is a record large 3.06 million tons, unchanged from last month's forecast, but 13 percent larger than last year. This year's crop exceeds the previous record of 3.03 million tons in the 1976-77 season. The Florida all grapefruit forecast is a record large 59.0 million boxes (2.51 million tons), unchanged from the last forecast, but 13 percent more than last season. The all seedless grapefruit forecast remains at 58.0 million boxes, while the seedy (Duncan) grapefruit forecast continues at 1.0 million boxes. Fruit size is smaller than the previous 2 seasons. Fruit droppage losses are slightly less than average. The May 1 Row Count survey showed rows remaining to be harvested at 20 percent for white grapefruit and 23 percent for colored grapefruit. An estimated 1.4 million boxes of grapefruit were harvested in the latest reporting week, compared to 0.6 million boxes in the same week last season. The Florida forecasts are based on objective fruit counts and measurement surveys in relationship to the harvest patterns and utilization of the past 2 seasons. All citrus forecasts project certified utilization, including a preseason allocation of less than 2 percent for unrecorded usage. Certifications include only fruit actually shipped in fresh pack or recorded at a processing plant. The Texas grapefruit forecast, at 5.30 million boxes (212,000 tons), is unchanged from last month, but up 16 percent from last season. Tangerines: The 1996-97 U.S. tangerine crop is forecast at a record large 437,000 tons, 1 percent higher than last month's forecast and 26 percent above last season's crop. Florida's tangerine forecast, at 6.4 million boxes (304,000 tons), is up 2 percent from the April 1 forecast, and is 42 percent above the 4.50 million boxes (213,000 tons) utilized in the 1995-96 season. Tangelos: Florida's 1996-97 tangelo crop is 3.95 million boxes (178,000 tons), unchanged from last month's forecast, but 61 percent higher than last season's 2.45 million boxes (110,000 tons). This is the largest recorded tangelo crop since the 1987-88 season. Temples: The Florida Temple forecast is 2.40 million boxes (108,000 tons), down 4 percent from the April 1 forecast, but 12 percent higher than last season. Weekly harvest has declined, but some late bloom is expected to be harvested for processing. Florida Citrus: Groves, trees, and fruit were in very good condition during April. Rainfall was just about normal, with the coasts receiving above average amounts and most other counties getting close to their usual April precipitation. There was an abundance of new growth on trees of all areas in most well maintained groves. New crop fruit made good progress during the month, as the trees shed some of the small green fruit that cannot be carried for next season. Valencia harvest was very active during April with most of these oranges going to processors. Movement of all seedless grapefruit was close to 3 million boxes per week for the first 2 weeks of April. Temple and Honey tangerine harvest slowed at the end of the month as supplies were depleted. Caretakers were active all month cutting cover crops prior to and following harvest. Post bloom nutritional sprays were applied all month in most well maintained groves. In general, hedging and topping have been completed. Texas Citrus: Harvest of the 1996-97 citrus crop was winding down by late April. Rain in the Rio Grande Valley during early April was very beneficial to next season's crop. New growth increased in most groves. Fruit set is good for oranges and grapefruit. California Fruits and Nuts: A dry spring brought on early irrigation. Fruit set in stone fruits was generally heavy, requiring the thinning of nectarines and apricots. Grapes were crown suckered and bunch thinned. Almond fruit set was heavy, with some branches subject to wind damage. Olives were in heavy bloom, and cherry picking began. California Citrus: Harvest of grapefruit was active in southern California. Color was good and eating quality was excellent. Lemon harvest in the South Coast area was ahead of last year and fruit quality was improving. Navel orange harvest was winding down with approximately 90 percent of the crop picked through May 1. Quality remained above average. Valencia orange picking remains slow with exports currently being the primary use; good quality was reported. Spring Potatoes: Spring potato production is forecast at 21.5 million cwt, down 4 percent from last month and last year. Area for harvest is estimated at 86,100 acres, down 4 percent from a year ago, but 2 percent above two years ago. The average yield, projected at 250 cwt per acre, is up 1 cwt from last year and 10 cwt above 1995. Harvest is underway in most spring producing areas. Heavy rains in late April flooded fields in the Hastings, Florida area. Harvest was interrupted, and some fields were damaged. The Hastings crop is now forecast at 6.1 million cwt, down 15 percent from last month. The full extent of loss of quality and yield is still being assessed. Other Florida areas have made good early progress with shipments expected to tail off into mid-June. California's harvest of red and white varieties is about two weeks early. The spring potato crop is forecast at 7.2 million cwt, 5 percent short of last year. Arizona's production is 31 percent below last year's output and is absent the processing potatoes last year intended for shipment to the Northwest. Alabama's spring potato crop is down 13 percent. Texas' production is forecast 41 percent above last year with new acreage coming on board and higher yields. North Carolina conditions were ideal for early growth, but an April 25 frost set progress back about two weeks. Their production is forecast the same as last year. Tobacco, 1996 Final: U.S. tobacco production totaled 1.52 billion pounds in 1996, up 20 percent from 1995. Yield per acre averaged 2,071 pounds, compared to 1,913 pounds in 1995. Tobacco producers harvested 732,690 acres, up 10 percent from the previous year. All tobacco types except cigar types and Type 32, Southern Maryland, showed increases in yield from 1995. Flue-cured, burley, and cigar types showed increases in harvested acres from 1995. Flue-cured production totaled 908 million pounds in 1996, up 22 percent from the 1995 production. Growers harvested 422,200 acres, up 9 percent from the previous year. Flue-cured tobacco represents 58 percent of 1996's all tobacco acreage. Yield per acre averaged 2,151 pounds, 218 pounds above the 1995 average yield. Burley production totaled 520 million pounds in 1996, 19 percent above the previous year. Growers harvested 268,300 acres, 15 percent above 1995. Average yield for burley tobacco was 1,940 pounds, 77 pounds above the previous year. The overall burley yield was higher than last year, but Indiana, Ohio, and West Virginia reported lower yields due to flood and disease damage. Kentucky, with 70 percent of the 1996 burley production, was 21 percent above 1995. Burley yield for Kentucky, at 1,980 pounds, was 30 pounds above the previous year. Fire-cured production, at 44.2 million pounds, was up 13 percent from 1995. Harvested acres, at 16,580, were down 2 percent. The average yield of 2,668 pounds was 346 pounds above the previous year. Production of dark air-cured tobacco was 8.66 million pounds, up 1 percent from the 1995 production. Harvested acres, at 3,850, were 8 percent below the previous year. The average yield per acre of 2,250 pounds was 200 pounds above 1995. All cigar type production of 19.5 million pounds was 2 percent below the previous year. Compared with last year, filler production was up 2 percent; binder production was down 7 percent; and wrapper production was up 5 percent. Cotton, 1996 Final: All cotton production in the United States totaled 18.9 million bales in 1996, 6 percent above 1995's production. The 1996 output was the third largest crop on record. Upland cotton production, at 18.4 million bales, was 5 percent higher than the previous year, while American-Pima production totaled 528,500 bales, up 44 percent from 1995. The area planted to all cotton totaled 14.6 million acres, down 14 percent from 1995, and harvested area, at 12.9 million acres, was down 20 percent from the previous year. Abandonment totaled 12 percent compared to 5 percent in 1995, and Texas abandoned 30 percent of their acreage. Yields for the U.S. averaged 707 pounds per harvested acre, the second highest yield on record. The Delta States' 1996 output increased 2 percent from the 1995 drought and insect reduced production, to 6.06 million bales. Plantings lagged behind the average pace due to wet soils and because other row crops were being planted, but in mid-May, producers exceeded the 5-year average pace and planting was complete in mid-June. Crop development exceeded the 5-year average during the season. Louisiana's crop suffered from dry conditions during early summer and compared to the previous 10 years, boll counts ranked ninth but boll weights were second highest. Boll weights ranked eighth and sixth in Arkansas and Mississippi, respectively, but Arkansas' large boll counts ranked fifth highest and Mississippi's ranked third highest during the past 10 years. Yields averaged 748 pounds, up 146 pounds from one year earlier. Production in the Southeast, at 4.33 million bales, was up 20 percent from 1995. Yields averaged 730 pounds, 191 pounds above 1995's yields which were effected by hot and dry conditions. The planting pace was slightly behind average in Alabama and Georgia early in the season, but early May storms followed by a dry period allowed producers to exceed the average pace by mid-May. Early June storms in these two States replenished soil moisture and improved crop condition. Hurricane Fran entered North Carolina on September 5, flooding some acreage and deteriorating the condition and yield prospects as it moved across the cotton producing areas. More storms followed hurricane Fran during the month, which slowed harvest in most of the region. The Western States Upland production totaled 3.25 million bales, a 2 percent increase from 1995's output. Arizona's acreage was planted well ahead of the average pace, due to approval of early planting dates in an attempt to lessen any effects of whitefly. California's seeding pace was behind average, as low April soil temperatures and rainfall in mid-April and mid-May slowed activity and also caused some replantings. California's boll counts were second lowest and boll weights were third lowest since 1986. Yields in this region averaged 1,144 pounds per harvested acre, up 182 pounds from the previous year. The Texas-Oklahoma Upland production, at 4.48 million bales, was 2 percent below the previous year's output. Storms in early June provided some relief from the dry planting conditions in May but high winds and hail damaged acreage, forcing producers to replant. Poor growing conditions had adverse effects on the South Texas crop during the planting season. These conditions resulted in an abandonment of 28 percent of Texas' planted acreage. Texas producers planted 5.70 million acres, down 11 percent from 1995, and harvested acres, at 4.10 million were down 29 percent. Beneficial amounts of rainfall in August and September, resulted in the highest boll count and second highest boll weights since 1986. Texas Upland cotton yield was a record high 509 pounds per harvested acre. Ginnings totaled 18,928,550 equivalent 480-pound net weight bales during the 1995 season. This compares with 17,890,000 equivalent 480-pound bales ginned in 1995. Cottonseed: Cottonseed production in 1996 totaled 7.14 million tons, up 4 percent from 1995. Reliability of May 1 Winter Wheat Production Forecast Survey Procedures: Objective yield and farm operator surveys were conducted between April 25 and May 3 to gather information on expected yield as of May 1. The objective yield survey was conducted in three States (Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas) where winter wheat is normally mature enough to make meaningful counts. Farm operators were interviewed to update previously reported acreage data and seek permission to randomly locate two sample plots in selected winter wheat fields. The counts made within each sample plot depended upon the crop's maturity. In early fields, counts such as number of stalks, heads in late boot, and number of emerged heads were made to predict the number of heads that would be harvested. A 5-year historical average head weight is used until the crop matures to the point that heads can be clipped, threshed, and weighed. The number of heads times the weight of the heads in a sample plot can then be combined to an estimate of yield per acre. The 5-year average harvesting loss is subtracted to obtain a net yield. The plots are revisited each month until the crop reaches maturity and are harvested on the final visit. The farm operator survey included a sample of approximately 12,000 winter wheat producers representing all major production areas. These producers were selected from an earlier acreage survey and were asked about the probable winter wheat acres for harvest and yield on their operation. These growers will be surveyed throughout the growing season to provide indications of average yields as the season progresses. Estimating Procedures: National and State level objective yield and grower reported data were reviewed for reasonableness and consistency with historical estimates. The survey data were also reviewed considering weather patterns and crop progress compared to previous months and previous years. Each State Statistical Office submits their analysis of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State analyses to prepare the published May 1 forecasts. Revision Policy: The May 1 production forecast will not be revised; instead, a new forecast will be made each month throughout the growing season. End-of-season estimates are made after harvest. At the end of the marketing season, a balance sheet is calculated using carryover stocks, production, exports, millings, feeding, and ending stocks. Revisions are then made if the balance sheet relationships or other administrative data warrant changes. Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the May 1 winter wheat production forecast, the "Root Mean Square Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. This is done by expressing the deviation between the May 1 production forecast and the final estimate as a percentage of the final estimate, and averaging the squared percentage deviations for the 1977-1996 20-year period; the square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent years. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the May 1 winter wheat production forecast is 5.7 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current production forecast of 1.56 billion bushels will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 5.7 percent or approximately 89.0 million bushels. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 9.9 percent or approximately 155 million bushels. Differences between the May 1 winter wheat production forecast and the final estimate during the past 10 years have averaged 56 million bushels, ranging from 4 million to 124 million bushels. The May 1 forecast has been below the final estimate 4 times and above 6 times. This does not imply that the May 1 winter wheat forecast this year is likely to understate or overstate final production. Index Page Table Narrative Almonds............................................... A-11 B- 6 Avocados.............................................. A-11 B- 7 Bananas............................................... A-12 B- 7 Citrus Fruit.......................................... A- 9 B- 7 Cotton................................................ A-18 B-10 Crop Moisture Maps.................................... B- 1 Crop Summary.......................................... A- 2 Farm Marketings - Tobacco............................. A-23 Hay Stocks............................................ A- 8 B- 6 Papayas............................................... A-12 B- 7 Potatoes, Spring...................................... A-10 B- 9 Reliability Statement................................. B-12 Taro.................................................. A-12 B- 7 Tobacco by Class and Type............................. A-13 B- 9 Tobacco by States..................................... A-17 Wheat, by Class....................................... A- 7 Wheat, Winter......................................... A- 6 B- 6 Wheat, Durum.......................................... A- 7 B- 6 Report Features The next "Crop Production" report will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET on June 12, 1997. Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. C. Ray Halley, Chief (202) 720-2127 Field Crops Section Bill Dowdy, Head (202) 720-3843 Kevin Barnes - Soybeans, Minor Oilseeds (202) 720-7369 Rhonda Brandt- Sugar Crops, Weekly Crop Weather, Oats (202) 720-7621 Dan Kerestes - Corn (202) 720-9526 Roger Latham - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings (202) 720-5944 Joel Moore - Barley, Hay, Sorghum (202) 690-3234 Barbara Rater - Peanuts, Rice (202) 720-7688 Vaughn Siegenthaler - Wheat, Rye (202) 720-8068 Fruit, Vegetable & Special Crops Section Vince Matthews, Head (202) 720-3843 Arvin Budge - Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes (202) 720-4285 Dave DeWalt - Citrus, Tropical Fruits (202) 720-5412 Howard Hill - Cherries, Berries, Prunes, Plums, Cranberries, Grapes, Maple Syrup (202) 720-7235 Dave Mueller - Fresh and Processing Vegetables, Onions (202) 720-2157 Dave Ranek - Nuts, Floriculture (202) 720-4215 Linda Simpson - Noncitrus Fruits, Mint, Dry Beans & Peas, Mushrooms, Hops (202) 690-0270 Debbie Williams - Apples, Strawberries, Tobacco (202) 720-4288 The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination in its programs on the basis of race, color, national origin, sex, religion, age, disability, political beliefs, and marital or familial status. 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