HDR1012000110010912970830CROP PRODUCTION Crop Production National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released September 12, 1997, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Crop Production" call (202) 720-2127, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. Forecasts refer to September 1, 1997. Index and report features are located at the end of this report. Corn and Soybean Production Unchanged Cotton Production Up 4 Percent Corn production is forecast at 9.27 billion bushels, virtually unchanged from last month and 1996. Based on conditions as of September 1, yields are expected to average 125.2 bushels per acre, down 0.1 bushels from last month and 1.9 bushels from 1996. Acreage harvested and to be harvested for grain is forecast at 74.0 million acres, unchanged from last month. Yield prospects in Indiana and Wisconsin decreased. Forecasted yields in Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, and Ohio were unchanged. All cotton production is forecast at 18.4 million bales, up 4 percent from August, but down 3 percent from 1996. This is the fourth largest crop on record. Yield is expected to average 658 pounds per acre, down 49 pounds from last year. The dryland crop in the Plains of Texas received rain during the month, and Texas' production was increased 400,000 bales. Cotton conditions also improved in Arkansas and Mississippi, which showed increases of 110,000 bales and 80,000 bales respectively. Soybean production is forecast at 2.75 billion bushels, up fractionally from the August 1 forecast and up 15 percent from 1996. Yield is unchanged from last month at 39.3 bushels per acre, but 1.7 bushels above last year. Estimated area for harvest remains unchanged from the August 1 estimate of 69.8 million acres. All wheat production is placed at 2.51 billion bushels, down 1 percent from the last forecast, but 10 percent more than in 1996. The U.S. yield is now forecast at 39.5 bushels per acre. This is 0.4 bushels less than last month, but equals the record high yield. Cr Pr 2-2 (9-97) Other spring wheat: Production is now forecast at 562 million bushels, down 4 percent from last month. The U.S. yield is forecast at 30.0 bushels per acre. This is 1.3 bushels per acre lower than August 1. There were no acreage changes. Hard Red Spring production is down from last month as declines in Minnesota and the Dakotas more than offset improved Montana prospects. White Spring production is up again because of the improved Washington crop. Durum wheat: Production is forecast at 90.2 million bushels, unchanged from last month, but still well below last year. As of August 31, the North Dakota harvest was running ahead of both last year and the 5-year average; Montana's harvest was about half complete. California Navel Oranges: Production for 1997-98 is forecast at 44.0 million boxes, up 10 percent from last season's production of 40.0 million boxes. This initial forecast of the 1997-98 season is based on an objective measurement survey conducted in the California Central Valley. The crop is maturing well with fruit set up from last year, but low by historical standards. Individual fruit sizes are similar to last season, when sizes were large by historical standards. This report was approved on September 12, 1997. Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 1996 and Forecasted September 1, 1997 (Domestic Units) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted : Area Harvested 1/ Crop :------------------------------------------------------- : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 : 1997 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres : Corn : 79,487 80,227 73,147 74,049 Sorghum : 13,188 10,268 11,901 9,512 Barley : 7,174 6,769 6,787 6,397 All Wheat : 75,639 70,767 62,850 63,495 Durum : 3,620 3,270 3,546 3,208 Other Spring : 20,036 19,155 19,595 18,704 Rice : 2,819.0 3,065.0 2,799.0 3,037.0 Soybeans : 64,205 70,850 63,409 69,816 Peanuts 2/ : 1,401.5 1,404.0 1,380.0 1,384.5 All Cotton : 14,633.5 13,905.0 12,868.1 13,436.5 Upland : 14,375.5 13,655.0 12,612.2 13,187.5 Amer-Pima : 258.0 250.0 255.9 249.0 Potatoes : Summer 3/ : 78.1 68.9 74.8 66.0 Fall 3/ : 1,269.9 1,198.6 1,246.7 1,181.5 Total 3/ : 1,455.9 1,370.8 1,426.0 1,349.0 Tobacco : 732.7 794.8 Sugarbeets : 1,368.4 1,464.8 1,323.3 1,433.0 Sugarcane for : Sugar and Seed : 888.9 915.0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Harvested for principal use of each crop, ie., grain, beans, etc. 2/ 1997 area planted revised. 3/ 1996 revised. Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 1996-97 (Domestic Units) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted : Area Harvested Crop :------------------------------------------------------- : 1996 : 1997 1/ : 1996 : 1997 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres : Oats : 4,661 5,264 2,687 3,222 Winter Wheat : 51,983 48,342 39,709 41,583 Rye : 1,467 1,443 347 359 Sunflower : 2,556 2,920 2,499 2,807 Flaxseed : 96 152 92 146 All Hay : 61,029 60,807 Alfalfa : 24,291 23,556 All Other : 36,738 37,251 Dry Edible Beans : 1,813.0 1,913.6 1,717.7 1,750.1 Potatoes : Winter : 14.5 15.6 14.5 15.4 Spring : 93.4 87.7 90.0 86.1 Sweetpotatoes : 89.1 87.8 84.8 84.7 Hops : 44.2 44.0 Ginger Root (HI) : 0.2 0.3 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast. Crop Summary: Yield per Acre and Production, United States, 1996 and Forecasted September 1, 1997 (Domestic Units) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Yield per Acre : Production :----------------------------------------------------- Crop and Unit : : : : Aug 1, : Sep 1, : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 : 1997 : 1997 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------- 1,000 ------------- : Corn for Grain Bu : 127.1 125.2 9,293,435 9,275,870 9,267,655 Sorghum for Grain " : 67.5 68.7 802,974 629,299 653,208 Barley " : 58.5 59.3 396,851 380,015 379,395 All Wheat " : 36.3 39.5 2,281,763 2,530,534 2,507,169 Durum " : 32.7 28.1 115,840 90,155 90,155 Other Spring " : 35.1 30.0 687,875 584,905 561,540 Rice 1/ Cwt : 6,121 5,975 171,321 182,034 181,455 Soybeans for Beans Bu : 37.6 39.3 2,382,364 2,744,451 2,745,891 Peanuts Lb : 2,653 2,642 3,661,205 3,800,225 3,658,525 All Cotton 1/ Bale : 707 658 18,942.0 17,782.5 18,417.5 Upland 1/ " : 701 651 18,413.5 17,228.5 17,873.5 Amer-Pima 1/ " : 991 1,049 528.5 554.0 544.0 Cottonseed Ton : 7,143.5 6,793.8 7,052.8 Potatoes : Summer 2/ 3/ Cwt : 261 262 19,507 16,418 17,271 Fall 2/ : 364 453,436 Total 2/ " : 350 498,633 Tobacco Lb : 2,071 2,031 1,517,334 1,626,317 1,614,173 Sugarbeets Ton : 20.2 20.5 26,680 29,688 29,358 Sugarcane for : Sugar and Seed " : 33.1 32.4 29,462 29,546 29,664 Pecans Lb : 218,900 292,000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Yield in pounds. 2/ 1996 revised. 3/ August estimate carried forward from July 1. Crop Summary: Yield per Acre and Production, United States, 1996-97 (Domestic Units) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Yield per Acre : Production Crop and Unit :----------------------------------------------------- : 1996 : 1997 1/ : 1996 : 1997 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : --------- 1,000 -------- : Oats Bu : 57.8 58.1 155,225 187,127 Winter Wheat " : 37.2 44.6 1,478,048 1,855,474 All Hay Ton : 2.45 2.53 149,457 153,886 Alfalfa " : 3.27 3.30 79,377 77,817 All Other " : 1.91 2.04 70,080 76,069 Dry Edible Beans 2/ Cwt : 1,592 1,666 27,354 29,163 Potatoes : Winter Cwt : 226 205 3,273 3,157 Spring " : 249 250 22,417 21,498 Hops Lb : 1,698 1,680 74,970.5 73,838.0 Ginger Root (HI) " : 47,000 44,000 9,400 12,100 Apples, Comm'l " : 10,355,000 10,648,900 Peaches " : 2,070,300 2,643,900 Pears Ton : 820.8 1,019.8 Grapes " : 5,548.2 6,644.4 Sweet Cherries " : 154.3 191.3 Tart Cherries Lb : 270,300 242,200 Apricots Ton : 79.8 132.0 Olives (CA) " : 166.0 95.0 Dried Prunes (CA) " : 220.0 215.0 Prunes and Plums : (excl CA) " : 20.0 28.4 Almonds (CA) Lb : 510,000 680,000 Pistachios (CA) " : 105,000 170,000 Hazelnuts Ton : 18.5 40.0 Walnuts (CA) " : 208.0 230.0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast. 2/ Yield in pounds. Crop Summary: Yield per Acre and Production, United States, 1996-97 (Metric Units) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Yield per Hectare : Production Crop :----------------------------------------------------- : 1996 : 1997 1/ : 1996 : 1997 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Metric Tons : Oats : 2.07 2.08 2,253,080 2,716,140 Winter Wheat : 2.50 3.00 40,225,870 50,497,730 All Hay : 5.49 5.67 135,585,110 139,603,030 Alfalfa : 7.33 7.41 72,009,600 70,594,390 All Other : 4.28 4.58 63,575,510 69,008,640 Dry Edible Beans : 1.78 1.87 1,240,760 1,322,810 Potatoes : Winter : 25.29 22.99 148,460 143,200 Spring : 27.92 27.99 1,016,820 975,130 Hops : 1.90 1.88 34,010 33,490 Ginger Root (HI) : 53.25 49.91 4,260 5,490 Apples, Comm'l : 4,696,950 4,830,260 Peaches : 939,070 1,199,250 Pears : 744,570 925,100 Grapes : 5,033,240 6,027,650 Sweet Cherries : 139,980 173,500 Tart Cherries : 122,610 109,860 Apricots : 72,390 119,750 Olives (CA) : 150,590 86,180 Dried Prunes (CA) : 199,580 195,040 Prunes and Plums : (excl CA) : 18,140 25,760 Almonds (CA) : 231,330 308,440 Pistachios (CA) : 47,630 77,110 Hazelnuts : 16,780 36,290 Walnuts (CA) : 188,690 208,650 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast. Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 1996 and Forecasted September 1, 1997 (Metric Units) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted : Area Harvested 1/ Crop :------------------------------------------------------- : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 : 1997 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Hectares : Corn : 32,167,590 32,467,060 29,601,860 29,966,890 Sorghum : 5,337,050 4,155,360 4,816,220 3,849,410 Barley : 2,903,250 2,739,350 2,746,630 2,588,800 All Wheat : 30,610,350 28,638,700 25,434,770 25,695,790 Durum : 1,464,980 1,323,340 1,435,030 1,298,250 Other Spring : 8,108,370 7,751,840 7,929,900 7,569,320 Rice : 1,140,820 1,240,370 1,132,730 1,229,040 Soybeans : 25,983,120 28,672,290 25,660,990 28,253,840 Peanuts 2/ : 567,170 568,180 558,470 560,290 All Cotton : 5,922,030 5,627,210 5,207,590 5,437,620 Upland : 5,817,620 5,526,040 5,104,030 5,336,850 Amer-Pima : 104,410 101,170 103,560 100,770 Potatoes : Summer 3/ : 31,610 27,880 30,270 26,710 Fall 3/ : 513,920 485,060 504,530 478,140 Total 3/ : 589,190 554,750 577,090 545,930 Tobacco : 296,510 321,630 Sugarbeets : 553,780 592,790 535,530 579,920 Sugarcane for : Sugar and Seed : 359,730 370,290 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Harvested for principal use of each crop, ie., grain, beans, etc. 2/ 1997 area planted revised. 3/ 1996 revised. Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 1996-97 (Metric Units) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted : Area Harvested Crop :------------------------------------------------------- : 1996 : 1997 1/ : 1996 : 1997 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Hectares : Oats : 1,886,260 2,130,290 1,087,400 1,303,910 Winter Wheat : 21,037,000 19,563,520 16,069,840 16,828,220 Rye : 593,680 583,970 140,430 145,280 Sunflower : 1,034,390 1,181,690 1,011,320 1,135,960 Flaxseed : 38,850 61,510 37,230 59,080 All Hay : 24,697,830 24,607,980 Alfalfa : 9,830,320 9,532,880 All Other : 14,867,500 15,075,110 Dry Edible Beans : 733,700 774,410 695,140 708,250 Potatoes : Winter : 5,870 6,310 5,870 6,230 Spring : 37,800 35,490 36,420 34,840 Sweetpotatoes : 36,060 35,530 34,320 34,280 Hops : 17,870 17,790 Ginger Root (HI) : 80 110 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast. Crop Summary: Yield per Acre and Production, United States, 1996 and Forecasted September 1, 1997 (Metric Units) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Yield per Hectare: Production :----------------------------------------------------- Crop : : : : Aug 1, : Sep 1, : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 : 1997 : 1997 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Metric Tons : Corn for Grain : 7.97 7.86 236,064,120 235,617,950 235,409,280 Sorghum for Grain : 4.23 4.31 20,396,480 15,984,930 16,592,250 Barley : 3.15 3.19 8,640,410 8,273,850 8,260,350 All Wheat : 2.44 2.66 62,099,410 68,869,860 68,233,960 Durum : 2.20 1.89 3,152,650 2,453,620 2,453,620 Other Spring : 2.36 2.02 18,720,890 15,918,510 15,282,610 Rice : 6.86 6.70 7,770,990 8,256,920 8,230,660 Soybeans for Beans : 2.53 2.64 64,837,320 74,691,720 74,730,910 Peanuts : 2.97 2.96 1,660,690 1,723,750 1,659,480 All Cotton : .79 .74 4,124,140 3,871,680 4,009,940 Upland : .79 .73 4,009,070 3,751,060 3,891,500 Amer-Pima : 1.11 1.18 115,070 120,620 118,440 Cottonseed : 6,480,470 6,163,230 6,398,190 Potatoes : Summer 1/ 2/ : 29.23 29.33 884,820 744,710 783,400 Fall 1/ : 40.77 20,567,510 Total 1/ : 39.19 22,617,610 Tobacco : 2.32 2.28 688,250 737,690 732,180 Sugarbeets : 45.20 45.93 24,203,690 26,932,500 26,633,130 Sugarcane for : Sugar and Seed : 74.30 72.67 26,727,480 26,803,680 26,910,730 Pecans : 99,290 132,450 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 1996 revised. 2/ August estimate carried forward from July 1. Corn for Grain: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 1996 and Forecasted September 1, 1997 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production :---------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : 1997 : : : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 :-------------------: 1996 : 1997 : : : : Aug 1 : Sep 1 : : ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres ------- Bushels ------- -- 1,000 Bushels -- : AL : 280 260 82.0 92.0 95.0 22,960 24,700 AZ 1/ : 40 45 175.0 175.0 175.0 7,000 7,875 AR 1/ : 230 170 125.0 110.0 110.0 28,750 18,700 CA : 220 260 160.0 170.0 165.0 35,200 42,900 CO : 940 1,030 142.0 148.0 148.0 133,480 152,440 CT 2/ : DE : 150 146 143.0 100.0 100.0 21,450 14,600 FL 1/ : 112 80 88.0 100.0 100.0 9,856 8,000 GA : 525 500 95.0 107.0 110.0 49,875 55,000 ID 1/ : 40 40 135.0 145.0 145.0 5,400 5,800 IL : 10,800 11,000 136.0 127.0 127.0 1,468,800 1,397,000 IN : 5,450 5,850 123.0 127.0 122.0 670,350 713,700 IA : 12,450 11,950 138.0 140.0 140.0 1,718,100 1,673,000 KS : 2,350 2,700 152.0 130.0 130.0 357,200 351,000 KY : 1,200 1,220 124.0 108.0 108.0 148,800 131,760 LA 1/ : 523 490 125.0 115.0 115.0 65,375 56,350 ME 2/ : MD : 465 450 139.0 85.0 80.0 64,635 36,000 MA 2/ : MI : 2,300 2,300 94.0 110.0 110.0 216,200 253,000 MN : 6,950 6,450 125.0 130.0 130.0 868,750 838,500 MS 1/ : 605 470 102.0 105.0 105.0 61,710 49,350 MO : 2,650 2,850 134.0 108.0 112.0 355,100 319,200 MT 1/ : 15 15 137.0 130.0 130.0 2,055 1,950 NE : 8,300 8,800 143.0 133.0 133.0 1,186,900 1,170,400 NH 2/ : NJ 1/ : 94 102 126.0 95.0 95.0 11,844 9,690 NM 1/ : 84 85 175.0 170.0 170.0 14,700 14,450 NY : 630 660 107.0 118.0 116.0 67,410 76,560 NC : 900 900 95.0 85.0 85.0 85,500 76,500 ND : 720 650 91.0 95.0 95.0 65,520 61,750 OH : 2,750 3,450 111.0 130.0 130.0 305,250 448,500 OK 1/ : 170 180 145.0 150.0 150.0 24,650 27,000 OR 1/ : 33 20 165.0 185.0 185.0 5,445 3,700 PA : 1,070 1,120 119.0 85.0 85.0 127,330 95,200 RI 2/ : SC : 380 335 79.0 95.0 100.0 30,020 33,500 SD : 3,700 3,350 100.0 95.0 100.0 370,000 335,000 TN : 680 650 116.0 105.0 105.0 78,880 68,250 TX : 1,800 1,800 112.0 135.0 135.0 201,600 243,000 UT 1/ : 21 21 130.0 125.0 125.0 2,730 2,625 VT 2/ : VA : 310 340 126.0 83.0 83.0 39,060 28,220 WA 1/ : 120 110 185.0 190.0 190.0 22,200 20,900 WV 1/ : 40 45 105.0 95.0 95.0 4,200 4,275 WI : 3,000 3,100 111.0 128.0 126.0 333,000 390,600 WY 1/ : 50 55 123.0 122.0 122.0 6,150 6,710 : US : 73,147 74,049 127.1 125.3 125.2 9,293,435 9,267,655 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast. 2/ Not estimated. Sorghum for Grain: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 1996 and Forecasted September 1, 1997 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production :---------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : 1997 : : : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 :-------------------: 1996 : 1997 : : : : Aug 1 : Sep 1 : : ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres ------ Bushels ------ -- 1,000 Bushels -- : AL 1/ : 10 9 55.0 60.0 60.0 550 540 AR : 220 150 74.0 70.0 70.0 16,280 10,500 CO : 260 160 51.0 35.0 40.0 13,260 6,400 GA 1/ : 40 40 41.0 46.0 46.0 1,640 1,840 IL : 220 150 84.0 82.0 82.0 18,480 12,300 KS : 4,600 3,550 77.0 70.0 75.0 354,200 266,250 KY 1/ : 23 13 92.0 75.0 75.0 2,116 975 LA : 153 107 76.0 75.0 72.0 11,628 7,704 MS : 72 33 70.0 65.0 65.0 5,040 2,145 MO : 580 430 91.0 78.0 85.0 52,780 36,550 NE : 1,030 800 95.0 90.0 90.0 97,850 72,000 NM : 225 230 33.0 42.0 45.0 7,425 10,350 NC 1/ : 10 11 57.0 49.0 49.0 570 539 OK : 490 490 59.0 54.0 57.0 28,910 27,930 SC 1/ : 5 4 50.0 50.0 50.0 250 200 SD : 145 170 55.0 55.0 58.0 7,975 9,860 TN 1/ : 18 15 90.0 85.0 85.0 1,620 1,275 TX : 3,800 3,150 48.0 59.0 59.0 182,400 185,850 : US : 11,901 9,512 67.5 66.2 68.7 802,974 653,208 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast. Barley: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 1996 and Forecasted September 1, 1997 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production :---------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : 1997 : : : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 :-------------------: 1996 : 1997 : : : : Aug 1 : Sep 1 : : ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres -------- Bushels -------- -- 1,000 Bushels -- : AZ 1/ : 54 69 105.0 109.0 109.0 5,670 7,521 CA 1/ : 220 180 60.0 65.0 65.0 13,200 11,700 CO : 92 90 108.0 115.0 115.0 9,936 10,350 DE 1/ : 23 35 68.0 79.0 79.0 1,564 2,765 ID : 730 760 73.0 74.0 74.0 53,290 56,240 KS 1/ : 11 9 33.0 45.0 45.0 363 405 KY 1/ : 20 14 74.0 70.0 70.0 1,480 980 MD 1/ : 49 50 61.0 77.0 77.0 2,989 3,850 MI 1/ : 25 22 48.0 57.0 57.0 1,200 1,254 MN : 520 570 64.0 57.0 55.0 33,280 31,350 MT : 1,200 1,200 43.0 54.0 54.0 51,600 64,800 NE 1/ : 17 8 53.0 56.0 56.0 901 448 NV 1/ : 5 5 75.0 90.0 90.0 375 450 NJ 1/ : 3 4 60.0 75.0 75.0 180 300 NC 1/ : 20 20 65.0 71.0 71.0 1,300 1,420 ND : 2,600 2,200 55.0 47.0 47.0 143,000 103,400 OK 1/ : 3 8 23.0 39.0 39.0 69 312 OR : 150 120 64.0 69.0 69.0 9,600 8,280 PA 1/ : 75 75 67.0 69.0 69.0 5,025 5,175 SC 1/ : 4 3 50.0 60.0 60.0 200 180 SD : 145 115 44.0 44.0 40.0 6,380 4,600 TX 1/ : 11 5 34.0 49.0 49.0 374 245 UT : 100 95 82.0 90.0 90.0 8,200 8,550 VA 1/ : 75 65 68.0 80.0 80.0 5,100 5,200 WA : 440 490 62.0 70.0 72.0 27,280 35,280 WI : 75 65 53.0 60.0 60.0 3,975 3,900 WY : 120 120 86.0 87.0 87.0 10,320 10,440 : US : 6,787 6,397 58.5 59.4 59.3 396,851 379,395 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast. All Wheat: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 1996 and Forecasted September 1, 1997 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production :---------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : 1997 : : : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 :-------------------: 1996 : 1997 : : : : Aug 1 : Sep 1 : : ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres -------- Bushels -------- -- 1,000 Bushels --- : AL 1/ : 80 110 44.0 35.0 35.0 3,520 3,850 AZ 1/ : 178 98 90.4 92.3 92.3 16,090 9,042 AR 1/ : 1,240 790 54.0 45.0 45.0 66,960 35,550 CA 1/ : 688 510 75.2 80.1 80.1 51,750 40,850 CO 1/ : 2,268 2,912 33.3 34.0 34.0 75,500 99,010 DE 1/ : 78 77 53.0 55.0 55.0 4,134 4,235 FL 1/ : 10 15 38.0 39.0 39.0 380 585 GA 1/ : 350 360 48.0 44.0 44.0 16,800 15,840 ID : 1,560 1,430 76.4 77.3 77.3 119,200 110,480 IL 1/ : 1,100 1,150 38.0 60.0 60.0 41,800 69,000 IN 1/ : 720 640 38.0 57.0 57.0 27,360 36,480 IA 1/ : 45 25 35.0 38.0 38.0 1,575 950 KS 1/ : 8,800 10,700 29.0 46.0 46.0 255,200 492,200 KY 1/ : 530 500 53.0 55.0 55.0 28,090 27,500 LA 1/ : 130 145 43.0 38.0 38.0 5,590 5,510 MD 1/ : 227 215 52.0 60.0 60.0 11,804 12,900 MI 1/ : 630 540 38.0 61.0 61.0 23,940 32,940 MN : 2,442 2,405 41.9 35.0 33.0 102,382 79,480 MS 1/ : 230 190 49.0 42.0 42.0 11,270 7,980 MO 1/ : 1,250 1,040 39.0 57.0 57.0 48,750 59,280 MT : 6,350 6,010 27.8 30.1 30.8 176,710 185,050 NE 1/ : 2,100 1,900 35.0 37.0 37.0 73,500 70,300 NV 1/ : 19 17 86.8 96.5 96.5 1,650 1,640 NJ 1/ : 38 34 46.0 44.0 44.0 1,748 1,496 NM 1/ : 110 300 37.0 34.0 34.0 4,070 10,200 NY 1/ : 150 135 43.0 52.0 52.0 6,450 7,020 NC 1/ : 590 670 44.0 52.0 52.0 25,960 34,840 ND : 12,515 11,188 31.6 26.0 24.5 395,130 274,438 OH 1/ : 1,330 1,060 39.0 62.0 62.0 51,870 65,720 OK 1/ : 4,900 5,400 19.0 33.0 33.0 93,100 178,200 OR 1/ : 955 965 70.8 69.0 69.0 67,605 66,550 PA 1/ : 190 175 48.0 52.0 52.0 9,120 9,100 SC 1/ : 270 305 45.0 50.0 50.0 12,150 15,250 SD : 3,854 3,574 36.1 31.6 29.6 139,270 105,898 TN 1/ : 400 370 44.0 43.0 43.0 17,600 15,910 TX 1/ : 2,900 4,100 26.0 29.0 29.0 75,400 118,900 UT 1/ : 188 189 41.3 45.8 45.8 7,760 8,650 VA 1/ : 275 255 53.0 60.0 60.0 14,575 15,300 WA : 2,745 2,595 66.5 62.4 62.9 182,670 163,335 WV 1/ : 11 9 45.0 45.0 45.0 495 405 WI 1/ : 135 142 42.4 51.2 51.2 5,725 7,265 WY 1/ : 269 250 26.4 32.2 32.2 7,110 8,040 : US : 62,850 63,495 36.3 39.9 39.5 2,281,763 2,507,169 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast. Durum Wheat: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 1996 and Forecasted September 1, 1997 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production :---------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : 1997 : : : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 :-------------------: 1996 : 1997 : : : : Aug 1 : Sep 1 : : ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres -------- Bushels -------- 1,000 Bushels : AZ 1/ : 164 89 90.0 93.0 93.0 14,760 8,277 CA 1/ : 138 130 100.0 95.0 95.0 13,800 12,350 MN : 10 5 43.0 36.0 36.0 430 180 MT : 270 310 25.0 25.0 25.0 6,750 7,750 ND : 2,940 2,650 27.0 23.0 23.0 79,380 60,950 SD : 24 24 30.0 27.0 27.0 720 648 : US : 3,546 3,208 32.7 28.1 28.1 115,840 90,155 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast. Other Spring Wheat: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 1996 and Forecasted September 1, 1997 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production :---------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : 1997 : : : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 :-------------------: 1996 : 1997 : : : : Aug 1 : Sep 1 : : ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres -------- Bushels -------- -- 1,000 Bushels -- : CO 1/ : 68 62 75.0 80.0 80.0 5,100 4,960 ID : 700 560 72.0 73.0 73.0 50,400 40,880 MN : 2,400 2,350 42.0 35.0 33.0 100,800 77,550 MT : 4,100 4,200 26.0 28.0 29.0 106,600 121,800 NV 1/ : 10 6 75.0 90.0 90.0 750 540 ND : 9,500 8,500 33.0 27.0 25.0 313,500 212,500 OR 1/ : 105 125 61.0 62.0 62.0 6,405 7,750 SD : 2,250 2,400 37.0 32.0 29.0 83,250 69,600 UT 1/ : 28 29 60.0 50.0 50.0 1,680 1,450 WA : 395 445 46.0 50.0 53.0 18,170 23,585 WI 1/ : 10 7 35.0 35.0 35.0 350 245 WY 1/ : 29 20 30.0 34.0 34.0 870 680 : US : 19,595 18,704 35.1 31.3 30.0 687,875 561,540 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast. Wheat: Production by Class, United States, 1995-1996 and Forecasted September 1, 1997 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Winter : Spring : :-------------------------------------------------------------: Year : Hard : Soft : : Hard : : : Total : Red : Red : White : Red : Durum : White : ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Bushels : 1995 : 825,042 455,568 264,043 475,046 102,280 60,612 2,182,591 1996 : 762,402 422,019 293,627 626,753 115,840 61,122 2,281,763 1997 :1,112,228 469,624 273,622 503,364 90,155 58,176 2,507,169 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Wheat class estimates are based on varietal acreage survey data available for all wheat producing States. Unless unusual situations dictate, the previous end-of-season class percentages are used throughout the forecast season. Rice: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 1996 and Forecasted September 1, 1997 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production :---------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : 1997 : : : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 :-------------------: 1996 : 1997 : : : : Aug 1 : Sep 1 : : ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :-- 1,000 Acres -- ------- Pounds ------- --- 1,000 Cwt --- : AR : 1,170 1,337 6,150 5,850 5,850 71,945 78,215 CA : 500 513 7,490 8,200 8,200 37,459 42,066 LA : 533 565 4,870 4,800 4,650 25,977 26,273 MS : 208 268 6,000 5,500 5,600 12,480 15,008 MO 1/ : 90 95 5,550 5,400 5,400 4,995 5,130 TX : 298 259 6,200 5,700 5,700 18,465 14,763 : US : 2,799 3,037 6,121 5,994 5,975 171,321 181,455 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast. Rice: Production by Class, United States, 1995-96 and Forecasted September 1, 1997 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Year : Long Grain : Medium Grain : Short Grain : All ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : 1995 : 121,730 51,241 900 173,871 1996 : 113,462 56,790 1,069 171,321 1997 1/ : 126,870 53,029 1,556 181,455 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Indicated September 1, 1997, rice class forecasts are based on a five-year average of class percentages. The class percentages are adjusted as data become available through the growing season. Soybeans for Beans: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 1996 and Forecasted September 1, 1997 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production :---------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : 1997 : : : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 :-------------------: 1996 : 1997 : : : : Aug 1 : Sep 1 : : ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :-- 1,000 Acres -- ------- Bushels ------- -- 1,000 Bushels -- : AL : 315 380 34.0 29.0 29.0 10,710 11,020 AR : 3,500 3,550 32.0 32.0 32.0 112,000 113,600 DE : 217 221 35.0 26.0 26.0 7,595 5,746 FL 1/ : 33 38 32.0 30.0 30.0 1,056 1,140 GA : 390 420 26.0 28.0 25.0 10,140 10,500 IL : 9,850 9,950 40.5 43.0 43.0 398,925 427,850 IN : 5,360 5,350 38.0 44.0 42.0 203,680 224,700 IA : 9,450 10,400 44.0 49.0 49.0 415,800 509,600 KS : 2,000 2,300 37.0 32.0 35.0 74,000 80,500 KY : 1,180 1,280 38.0 36.0 36.0 44,840 46,080 LA : 1,080 1,350 33.0 29.0 29.0 35,640 39,150 MD : 480 530 37.0 29.0 25.0 17,760 13,250 MI : 1,640 1,890 28.5 40.0 40.0 46,740 75,600 MN : 5,900 6,700 38.0 42.0 41.0 224,200 274,700 MS : 1,750 2,050 31.0 27.0 28.0 54,250 57,400 MO : 4,050 4,850 37.0 34.0 37.0 149,850 179,450 NE : 3,010 3,450 45.0 43.0 42.0 135,450 144,900 NJ 1/ : 119 132 37.0 30.0 30.0 4,403 3,960 NC : 1,200 1,330 29.0 28.0 26.0 34,800 34,580 ND : 845 1,290 29.0 28.0 28.0 24,505 36,120 OH : 4,490 4,490 35.0 42.0 43.0 157,150 193,070 OK 1/ : 285 320 26.0 26.0 26.0 7,410 8,320 PA 1/ : 285 365 40.0 35.0 35.0 11,400 12,775 SC : 540 610 25.0 26.0 24.0 13,500 14,640 SD : 2,670 3,450 34.0 34.0 34.0 90,780 117,300 TN : 1,150 1,270 35.0 32.0 34.0 40,250 43,180 TX : 270 400 26.0 27.0 27.0 7,020 10,800 VA : 480 490 34.0 30.0 28.0 16,320 13,720 WI : 870 960 37.0 44.0 44.0 32,190 42,240 : US : 63,409 69,816 37.6 39.3 39.3 2,382,364 2,745,891 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast. Peanuts: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 1996 and Forecasted September 1, 1997 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production :---------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : 1997 : : : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 :-------------------: 1996 : 1997 : : : : Aug 1 : Sep 1 : : ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :-- 1,000 Acres -- ------- Pounds ------- --- 1,000 Pounds --- : AL : 191.0 189.0 2,355 2,300 2,300 449,805 434,700 FL : 82.0 82.0 2,880 3,100 3,100 236,160 254,200 GA : 533.0 518.0 2,690 2,800 2,650 1,433,770 1,372,700 NM : 16.5 17.5 2,300 2,450 2,450 37,950 42,875 NC 2/ : 125.0 121.0 2,940 2,850 2,750 367,500 332,750 OK 2/ : 81.0 78.0 2,410 2,500 2,500 195,210 195,000 SC : 10.5 10.0 3,100 2,900 3,000 32,550 30,000 TX : 265.0 295.0 2,600 2,750 2,700 689,000 796,500 VA : 76.0 74.0 2,885 2,700 2,700 219,260 199,800 : US 2/ : 1,380.0 1,384.5 2,653 2,717 2,642 3,661,205 3,658,525 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Estimates comprised of quota and non-quota peanuts. 2/ 1997 planted acres revised for North Carolina to 121,000 acres, Oklahoma to 80,000 acres, and U.S. to 1,404,000 acres. Cottonseed: Production, United States, 1995-96 and Forecasted September 1, 1997 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Production State :-------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1995 : 1996 : 1997 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : 1,000 Tons : US : 6,848.7 7,143.5 7,052.8 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Based on a 3-year average lint-seed ratio. Cotton: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Type, State, and United States, 1996 and Forecasted September 1, 1997 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production 1/ Type :-------------------------------------------------------------------- and : : : : 1997 : : State : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 :------------------: 1996 : 1997 : : : : Aug 1 : Sep 1 : : ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -- 1,000 Acres -- --- Pounds --- ------ 1,000 Bales 2/ ------ : Upland : AL : 516.0 420.0 734 503 526 789.0 460.0 AZ : 314.0 329.0 1,189 1,167 1,138 778.0 780.0 AR : 990.0 930.0 793 692 748 1,636.0 1,450.0 CA : 995.0 875.0 1,153 1,207 1,207 2,390.0 2,200.0 FL 3/ : 98.2 100.0 637 720 720 130.4 150.0 GA : 1,336.0 1,435.0 747 736 736 2,079.0 2,200.0 KS 3/ : 4.0 13.5 492 480 480 4.1 13.5 LA : 885.0 625.0 697 673 637 1,286.0 830.0 MS : 1,100.0 960.0 819 750 790 1,876.0 1,580.0 MO : 385.0 365.0 737 618 671 591.0 510.0 NM : 55.0 66.0 733 698 698 84.0 96.0 NC : 710.0 675.0 677 590 590 1,002.0 830.0 OK : 210.0 210.0 306 434 503 134.0 220.0 SC : 282.0 285.0 774 758 741 455.0 440.0 TN : 530.0 500.0 611 566 566 675.0 590.0 TX : 4,100.0 5,300.0 509 453 489 4,345.0 5,400.0 VA 3/ : 102.0 99.0 748 601 601 159.0 124.0 : US : 12,612.2 13,187.5 701 628 651 18,413.5 17,873.5 : Amer-Pima : AZ : 41.9 20.0 852 792 792 74.4 33.0 CA : 164.0 184.0 1,098 1,174 1,148 375.0 440.0 NM : 14.0 13.0 651 665 665 19.0 18.0 TX : 36.0 32.0 801 795 795 60.1 53.0 : US : 255.9 249.0 991 1,068 1,049 528.5 544.0 : All : AL : 516.0 420.0 734 503 526 789.0 460.0 AZ : 355.9 349.0 1,150 1,146 1,118 852.4 813.0 AR : 990.0 930.0 793 692 748 1,636.0 1,450.0 CA : 1,159.0 1,059.0 1,145 1,201 1,197 2,765.0 2,640.0 FL 3/ : 98.2 100.0 637 720 720 130.4 150.0 GA : 1,336.0 1,435.0 747 736 736 2,079.0 2,200.0 KS 3/ : 4.0 13.5 492 480 480 4.1 13.5 LA : 885.0 625.0 697 673 637 1,286.0 830.0 MS : 1,100.0 960.0 819 750 790 1,876.0 1,580.0 MO : 385.0 365.0 737 618 671 591.0 510.0 NM : 69.0 79.0 717 693 693 103.0 114.0 NC : 710.0 675.0 677 590 590 1,002.0 830.0 OK : 210.0 210.0 306 434 503 134.0 220.0 SC : 282.0 285.0 774 758 741 455.0 440.0 TN : 530.0 500.0 611 566 566 675.0 590.0 TX : 4,136.0 5,332.0 511 455 491 4,405.1 5,453.0 VA 3/ : 102.0 99.0 748 601 601 159.0 124.0 : US : 12,868.1 13,436.5 707 637 658 18,942.0 18,417.5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Production ginned and to be ginned. 2/ 480-lb net weight bales. 3/ Estimates for current year carried forward from previous forecast. Potatoes: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Seasonal Group, State, and United States, 1995-97 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Seasonal Group : Area Harvested : Yield : Production and :---------------------------------------------------------------- State : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 : 1997 : 1995 : 1996 : 1997 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : - 1,000 Acres - ---- Cwt --- ------ 1,000 Cwt ------ Winter 1/ : CA : 5.7 6.6 250 245 1,300 1,425 1,617 FL : 8.8 8.8 210 175 1,173 1,848 1,540 Total : 14.5 15.4 226 205 2,473 3,273 3,157 : Spring 1/ : AL : 1.9 1.5 160 175 400 304 263 AZ : 9.0 6.2 275 275 1,755 2,475 1,705 CA : 20.1 18.6 375 385 6,230 7,538 7,161 FL : 35.5 35.3 219 215 7,830 7,765 7,591 Hastings : 27.5 26.5 230 230 5,940 6,325 6,095 Other FL : 8.0 8.8 180 170 1,890 1,440 1,496 NC : 17.0 16.5 190 195 3,053 3,230 3,218 TX : 6.5 8.0 170 195 925 1,105 1,560 Total : 90.0 86.1 249 250 20,193 22,417 21,498 : Summer 2/ : AL : 6.7 5.9 150 150 1,139 1,005 885 CA : 5.8 5.9 360 360 1,760 2,088 2,124 CO : 9.8 7.6 345 350 2,776 3,381 2,660 DE : 5.2 4.2 240 220 1,475 1,248 924 IL : 6.0 4.6 275 280 1,485 1,650 1,288 IA 1/ : 1.5 1.2 210 190 240 315 228 MD : 2.6 3.4 215 260 360 559 884 MO : 7.1 5.8 230 250 1,587 1,633 1,450 NE : 5.5 4.3 270 350 1,254 1,485 1,505 NJ : 2.5 2.3 265 245 702 663 564 NM : 3.9 4.4 360 320 1,344 1,404 1,408 NC 1/ : 1.2 1.2 90 95 124 108 114 TX : 9.5 7.7 240 245 1,645 2,280 1,887 VA : 7.5 7.5 225 180 2,040 1,688 1,350 Total : 74.8 66.0 261 262 17,931 19,507 17,271 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- See footnotes at end of table. --continued Potatoes: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production, by Seasonal Group, State, and United States, 1995-97 (continued) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Seasonal Group : Area Harvested : Yield : Production and :---------------------------------------------------------------- State : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 : 1997 : 1995 : 1996 : 1997 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : - 1,000 Acres - ---- Cwt --- ------ 1,000 Cwt ------ : Fall 1/ 2/ 3/ : CA : 11.5 10.5 400 5,330 4,600 CO : 77.8 76.8 375 23,808 29,175 ID : 413.0 388.0 346 132,657 142,800 10 SW Co : 28.0 27.0 425 11,340 11,900 Other ID : 385.0 361.0 340 121,317 130,900 IN : 5.2 5.2 260 1,196 1,352 ME : 77.0 73.0 275 17,160 21,175 MA : 2.6 2.7 260 858 676 MI : 46.0 47.5 300 16,350 13,800 MN : 82.0 75.0 300 20,790 24,600 MT : 10.2 10.4 315 2,940 3,213 NE : 12.4 19.1 355 3,680 4,402 NV : 7.9 7.2 400 2,774 3,160 NM : 6.4 6.3 400 2,394 2,560 NY : 28.5 29.0 280 7,695 7,980 ND : 131.0 122.0 220 25,410 28,820 OH : 5.1 5.0 250 1,404 1,275 OR : 61.0 56.0 494 24,788 30,124 Malheur : 13.3 10.8 400 4,992 5,320 Other OR : 47.7 45.2 520 19,796 24,804 PA : 16.5 14.5 255 4,080 4,208 RI : 0.8 0.8 270 243 192 SD : 4.8 4.3 280 988 1,344 UT : 4.2 3.0 280 1,224 1,176 WA : 161.0 148.0 590 80,850 94,990 WI : 81.0 76.5 390 26,000 31,590 WY : 0.8 0.7 280 390 224 Total : 1,246.7 1,181.5 364 403,009 453,436 : US : 1,426.0 1,349.0 350 443,606 498,633 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast. 2/ 1996 revised. 3/ Estimates for 1997 yield and production for fall potatoes will be published November 10, 1997. Potatoes: Area Planted by Seasonal Group, State, and United States, 1996-97 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Seasonal Group : : :: Seasonal Group : : and : 1996 : 1997 :: and : 1996 : 1997 State : : :: State : : ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : 1,000 Acres :: : 1,000 Acres : :: : Winter 1/ : :: Fall 1/ 2/ : CA : 5.7 6.6 :: CA : 11.5 10.5 FL : 8.8 9.0 :: CO : 78.0 77.0 Total : 14.5 15.6 :: ID : 415.0 390.0 : :: 10 SW Co : 28.0 27.0 Spring 1/ : :: Other ID : 387.0 363.0 AL : 2.0 1.6 :: IN : 5.7 5.7 AZ : 9.0 6.2 :: ME : 78.0 74.0 CA : 20.1 18.6 :: MA : 2.7 2.7 FL : 38.0 36.0 :: MI : 52.0 49.0 Hastings : 28.5 27.0 :: MN : 85.0 79.0 Other FL : 9.5 9.0 :: MT : 10.4 10.4 NC : 17.5 17.0 :: NE : 12.7 19.5 TX : 6.8 8.3 :: NV : 8.0 7.3 Total : 93.4 87.7 :: NM : 6.7 6.3 : :: NY : 29.0 30.0 Summer 2/ : :: ND : 134.0 125.0 AL : 6.8 6.0 :: OH : 5.2 5.1 CA : 5.8 5.9 :: OR : 62.0 57.0 CO : 10.0 7.8 :: Malheur Co : 13.6 11.0 DE : 5.4 4.3 :: Other OR : 48.4 46.0 IL : 6.3 4.8 :: PA : 17.0 15.0 IA 1/ : 1.5 1.3 :: RI : 0.8 0.8 MD : 2.7 3.5 :: SD : 5.0 4.5 MO : 7.8 6.4 :: UT : 4.3 3.1 NE : 5.6 4.4 :: WA : 163.0 148.0 NJ : 2.6 2.4 :: WI : 83.0 78.0 NM : 3.9 4.4 :: WY : 0.9 0.7 NC 1/ : 1.2 1.2 :: TX : 10.5 8.5 :: Total : 1,269.9 1,198.6 VA : 8.0 8.0 :: : Total : 78.1 68.9 :: US : 1,455.9 1,370.8 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast. 2/ 1996 revised. Tobacco: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 1995-96 and Forecasted September 1, 1997 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production State:------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 : 1997 : 1995 : 1996 : 1997 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : --- 1,000 Acres -- ---- Pounds --- -------- 1,000 Pounds -------- : CT : 2,260 2,250 1,679 1,572 3,524 3,795 3,538 FL : 7,500 7,700 2,680 2,500 17,676 20,100 19,250 GA : 46,000 44,000 2,470 2,000 84,000 113,620 88,000 IN : 7,600 8,900 1,970 2,000 13,601 14,972 17,800 KY : 195,700 221,100 2,021 1,934 328,581 395,542 427,650 MD : 8,000 8,000 1,250 1,500 11,475 10,000 12,000 MA : 800 1,110 1,515 1,659 918 1,212 1,842 MO 1/ : 2,700 3,100 2,230 2,050 5,468 6,021 6,355 NC : 287,800 314,000 2,035 2,114 484,599 585,542 663,900 OH : 8,000 9,500 1,580 1,740 15,015 12,640 16,530 PA : 7,800 7,600 1,983 2,001 15,685 15,464 15,210 SC : 51,000 54,000 2,310 2,250 105,000 117,810 121,500 TN : 54,560 57,670 2,014 1,831 92,907 109,888 105,602 VA : 48,370 51,270 2,141 2,065 81,269 103,543 105,898 WV 1/ : 1,700 1,800 1,200 1,800 2,600 2,040 3,240 WI : 2,900 2,750 1,774 2,130 6,220 5,145 5,858 : US : 732,690 794,750 2,071 2,031 1,268,538 1,517,334 1,614,173 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast. Tobacco: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Class, Type, State, and United States, 1996 and Forecasted September 1, 1997 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production Class and Type :--------------------------------------------------------- : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 : 1997 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----- Acres ----- --- Pounds -- -- 1,000 Pounds -- : Class 1, Flue-cured : Type 11, Old Belts : NC : 76,000 86,000 2,120 2,050 161,120 176,300 VA : 37,700 40,000 2,235 2,150 84,260 86,000 US : 113,700 126,000 2,158 2,082 245,380 262,300 Type 12, Eastern NC : Belt : NC : 167,000 181,000 2,025 2,150 338,175 389,150 Type 13, NC Border & : SC Belt : NC : 37,000 38,000 1,980 2,200 73,260 83,600 SC : 51,000 54,000 2,310 2,250 117,810 121,500 US : 88,000 92,000 2,171 2,229 191,070 205,100 Type 14, GA-FL Belt : FL : 7,500 7,700 2,680 2,500 20,100 19,250 GA : 46,000 44,000 2,470 2,000 113,620 88,000 US : 53,500 51,700 2,499 2,074 133,720 107,250 Total 11-14 : 422,200 450,700 2,151 2,138 908,345 963,800 Class 2, Fire-cured : Type 21, VA Belt : VA : 1,100 1,200 1,580 1,500 1,738 1,800 Type 22, Eastern : District : KY : 3,800 3,900 2,720 2,500 10,336 9,750 TN : 7,500 7,600 2,550 2,300 19,125 17,480 US : 11,300 11,500 2,607 2,368 29,461 27,230 Type 23, Western : District : KY : 3,600 3,800 3,160 2,900 11,376 11,020 TN : 580 580 2,850 2,400 1,653 1,392 US : 4,180 4,380 3,117 2,834 13,029 12,412 Total 21-23 : 16,580 17,080 2,668 2,426 44,228 41,442 Class 3, Air-cured : Class 3A, Light : Air-cured : Type 31, Burley : IN : 7,600 8,900 1,970 2,000 14,972 17,800 KY : 185,000 210,000 1,980 1,900 366,300 399,000 MO 1/ : 2,700 3,100 2,230 2,050 6,021 6,355 NC : 7,800 9,000 1,665 1,650 12,987 14,850 OH : 8,000 9,500 1,580 1,740 12,640 16,530 TN : 46,000 49,000 1,915 1,750 88,090 85,750 VA : 9,500 10,000 1,835 1,800 17,433 18,000 WV 1/ : 1,700 1,800 1,200 1,800 2,040 3,240 US : 268,300 301,300 1,940 1,864 520,483 561,525 Type 32, Southern MD : Belt : MD : 8,000 8,000 1,250 1,500 10,000 12,000 PA : 3,200 3,000 1,900 1,850 6,080 5,550 US : 11,200 11,000 1,436 1,595 16,080 17,550 Total 31-32 : 279,500 312,300 1,920 1,854 536,563 579,075 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --continued Tobacco: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Class, Type, State, and United States, 1996 and Forecasted September 1, 1997 (continued) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production Class and Type :--------------------------------------------------------- : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 : 1997 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----- Acres ----- --- Pounds -- --- 1,000 Pounds --- : Class 3, Air-cured : Class 3B, Dark : Air-cured : Type 35, One Sucker : Belt : KY : 2,100 2,200 2,340 2,300 4,914 5,060 TN : 480 490 2,125 2,000 1,020 980 US : 2,580 2,690 2,300 2,245 5,934 6,040 Type 36, Green River : Belt : KY : 1,200 1,200 2,180 2,350 2,616 2,820 Type 37, VA Sun-cured: Belt : VA : 70 70 1,600 1,400 112 98 Total 35-37 : 3,850 3,960 2,250 2,262 8,662 8,958 Class 4, Cigar Filler : Type 41, PA Seedleaf : PA : 4,600 4,600 2,040 2,100 9,384 9,660 Class 5, Cigar Binder : Class 5A, CT Valley : Binder : Type 51, CT Valley : Broadleaf : CT : 1,220 1,250 1,840 1,710 2,245 2,138 MA : 410 670 1,600 1,830 656 1,226 US : 1,630 1,920 1,780 1,752 2,901 3,364 Class 5B, WI Binder : Type 54, Southern WI: WI : 1,900 1,900 1,900 2,300 3,610 4,370 Type 55, Northern WI: WI : 1,000 850 1,535 1,750 1,535 1,488 Total 54-55 : 2,900 2,750 1,774 2,130 5,145 5,858 Total 51-55 : 4,530 4,670 1,776 1,975 8,046 9,222 Class 6, Cigar Wrapper: Type 61, CT Valley : Shade-grown : CT : 1,040 1,000 1,490 1,400 1,550 1,400 MA : 390 440 1,425 1,400 556 616 US : 1,430 1,440 1,473 1,400 2,106 2,016 All Cigar Types : Total 41-61 : 10,560 10,710 1,850 1,951 19,536 20,898 : All Tobacco : 732,690 794,750 2,071 2,031 1,517,334 1,614,173 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast. Citrus Fruits: Utilized Production by Crop, State, and United States, 1995-96, 1996-97 and Forecasted September 1, 1997 1/ 2/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Utilized Production : Utilized Production : Boxes : Ton Equivalent Crop and State :----------------------------------------------------------- : 1995-96 : 1996-97 : 1997-98 : 1995-96 : 1996-97 : 1997-98 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----- 1,000 Boxes 3/ ----- ------- 1,000 Tons ------- Oranges : Early Mid & : Navel 4/ : AZ : 700 400 27 15 CA : 38,000 40,000 44,000 1,426 1,500 1,650 FL : 121,200 134,200 5,454 6,039 TX : 830 1,300 35 55 US : 160,730 175,900 6,942 7,609 Valencia : AZ : 950 600 36 23 CA : 20,000 28,000 750 1,050 FL : 82,100 92,000 3,695 4,140 TX : 110 120 4 5 US : 103,160 120,720 4,485 5,218 All : AZ : 1,650 1,000 63 38 CA : 58,000 68,000 2,176 2,550 FL : 203,300 226,200 9,149 10,179 TX : 940 1,420 39 60 US : 263,890 296,620 11,427 12,827 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 1995-96 and 1996-97 revised. Revised grapefruit and other citrus fruit totals will be released September 23, in "Citrus Fruits, 1997 Summary". 2/ The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest the following year. 3/ Net lbs. per box: oranges-AZ & CA-75, FL-90, TX-85. 4/ Navel and miscellaneous varieties in AZ and CA. Early (including Navel) and midseason varieties in FL and TX. Small quantities of tangerines in TX. Sugarbeets: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 1995-96 and Forecasted September 1, 1997 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production State :---------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 : 1997 : 1995 : 1996 : 1997 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : --- 1,000 Acres -- --- Tons --- -------- 1,000 Tons -------- : CA : 82.0 102.0 29.5 28.0 3,192 2,419 2,856 CO : 51.1 67.0 20.2 21.4 715 1,032 1,434 ID : 184.0 196.0 24.8 25.2 4,728 4,563 4,939 MI : 130.0 160.0 15.1 19.0 2,970 1,963 3,040 MN : 438.0 445.0 18.2 17.9 7,434 7,971 7,966 MT : 57.5 58.5 22.6 21.2 1,193 1,300 1,240 NE : 51.2 59.7 17.8 19.3 1,186 913 1,152 NM : 0.9 1.6 29.8 23.5 27 38 ND : 225.3 230.0 18.7 17.5 3,929 4,213 4,025 OH : 4.6 0.9 18.8 18.9 230 86 17 OR : 16.3 17.1 25.5 25.5 404 416 436 TX : 12.6 16.0 19.2 21.0 351 242 336 WA : 13.0 18.2 35.5 36.2 461 659 WY : 56.8 61.0 18.9 20.0 1,249 1,074 1,220 : Oth : Sts 2/ : 484 : US : 1,323.3 1,433.0 20.2 20.5 28,065 26,680 29,358 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Relates to year of intended harvest except for overwintered spring planted beets in CA. 2/ Includes NM and WA prior to 1996. Sugarcane for Sugar and Seed: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 1995-96 and Forecasted September 1, 1997 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production 1/ State:------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 : 1997 : 1995 : 1996 : 1997 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres ---- Tons ---- -------- 1,000 Tons -------- : FL : 438.0 438.0 33.1 34.0 15,122 14,498 14,892 HI : 46.0 35.0 79.1 82.0 4,070 3,639 2,870 LA : 370.0 410.0 27.9 27.0 10,240 10,323 11,070 TX : 34.9 32.0 28.7 26.0 1,364 1,002 832 : US : 888.9 915.0 33.1 32.4 30,796 29,462 29,664 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Net tons. Papayas: Area and Fresh Production by Month, Hawaii, 1996-97 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area : Fresh Production :------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : Total in Crop : Harvested : : :---------------------------------------------: 1996 : 1997 : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 : 1997 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------------- Acres ---------------- 1,000 Pounds : Jul : 3,600 5,280 1,740 2,330 2,875 2,900 Aug : 3,555 5,350 1,670 2,335 2,990 2,715 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Nuts: Utilized Production by Crop and State, 1995-96 and Forecasted September 1, 1997 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Utilized Production Crop and State :----------------------------------------------------------- : 1995 : 1996 : 1997 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Tons (In-shell Basis) : Hazelnuts : OR : 38,800 18,400 39,800 WA : 200 100 200 Total : 39,000 18,500 40,000 : Walnuts : CA : 234,000 208,000 230,000 : : 1,000 Pounds (In-shell Basis) : Pistachios : CA : 148,000 105,000 170,000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Pecans: Utilized Production by Crop, State, and United States, 1995-96 and Forecasted September 1, 1997 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Utilized Production Crop and State :----------------------------------------------------- : 1995 : 1996 : 1997 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Pounds Improved Varieties 1/ : AL : 7,000 9,000 4,000 AZ 2/ : 17,000 17,000 AR : 900 800 1,600 CA : 2,900 1,300 2,800 FL : 600 500 700 GA : 62,000 86,000 85,000 LA : 2,000 2,000 2,000 MS : 1,200 1,300 2,600 NM : 45,000 22,000 42,000 NC : 1,800 425 550 OK : 2,500 500 3,000 SC : 2,400 1,800 2,000 TX : 47,000 30,000 50,000 US : 175,300 172,625 213,250 Native & Seedling : AL : 3,000 5,000 4,000 AR : 700 400 800 FL : 500 1,400 1,600 GA : 13,000 14,000 15,000 KS : 500 200 3,500 LA : 11,000 14,000 11,000 MS : 1,000 1,300 1,400 NC : 1,500 375 450 OK : 16,500 1,500 15,000 SC : 1,100 700 1,000 TX : 28,000 10,000 25,000 US : 76,800 48,875 78,750 All Pecans : AL : 10,000 14,000 8,000 AZ 2/ : 17,000 17,000 AR : 1,600 1,200 2,400 CA : 2,900 1,300 2,800 FL : 1,100 1,900 2,300 GA : 75,000 100,000 100,000 KS : 500 200 3,500 LA : 13,000 16,000 13,000 MS : 2,200 2,600 4,000 NM : 45,000 22,000 42,000 NC : 3,300 800 1,000 OK : 19,000 2,000 18,000 SC : 3,500 2,500 3,000 TX : 75,000 40,000 75,000 : Oth Sts 3/ : 15,900 : US : 268,000 221,500 292,000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Budded, grafted, or topworked varieties. 2/ Estimates published separately beginning in 1996. 3/ AZ, MO, and TN in 1995. No breakdown between varieties available. Forecasts discontinued in 1996 for MO and TN. Corn: Plant Population The National Agricultural Statistics Service is conducting corn objective yield surveys in 7 States during 1997. Randomly selected plots in corn for grain fields are visited monthly from August through harvest to obtain specific counts and measurements. Data in this table are rounded actual counts from this survey and are not official estimates of the Agricultural Statistics Board, but are intended to show trends in corn production practices. Corn for Grain: Plant population per acre, Selected States, 1993-97 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : and : 1993 : 1994 : 1995 : 1996 : 1997 Month : : : : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number of Plants : IL Sep : 23,400 23,300 24,000 24,350 25,000 Nov : 23,300 23,200 23,650 24,200 : IN Sep : 23,300 22,800 23,900 23,550 23,700 Nov : 23,200 22,850 24,000 23,500 : IA Sep : 23,700 24,000 24,800 25,000 25,700 Nov : 23,500 23,950 24,650 24,950 : MN Sep : 25,000 26,100 26,400 26,500 26,300 Nov : 25,100 26,000 26,350 26,600 : NE Sep : 22,600 21,900 22,600 22,750 22,850 Nov : 22,200 21,700 22,500 22,700 : OH Sep : 23,200 22,800 23,400 23,100 23,450 Nov : 23,300 22,900 23,300 22,750 : WI Sep : 23,500 24,100 24,600 24,800 24,750 Nov : 23,600 23,600 24,000 24,900 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on stalk counts in plots selected for objective yield samples. All Spring Wheat: Head Population The National Agricultural Statistics Service is conducting objective yield surveys in 3 spring wheat estimating States during 1997. Randomly selected plots in wheat fields are visited from August through harvest to obtain specific counts and measurements. Data in this table are derived actual field counts. The final number of heads will be determined when the plots are harvested at maturity. These data will be published in January. All Spring Wheat: Heads per Square Foot, Selected States, 1993-97 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Crop and State : 1993 : 1994 : 1995 : 1996 : 1997 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Other Spring: : Number : MN Sep : 44.3 44.3 45.6 41.6 47.7 Final : 45.3 43.9 45.6 41.6 : MT Sep : 29.2 27.3 30.4 25.2 25.8 Final : 29.1 27.3 30.4 25.1 : ND Sep : 41.9 39.4 39.5 36.0 37.8 Final : 42.7 39.4 39.5 36.1 : Durum: : : ND Sep : 27.5 25.9 24.8 24.7 22.8 Final : 26.9 25.7 24.8 24.7 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Soybeans: Pods with Beans The National Agricultural Statistics Service is conducting soybean objective yield surveys in 8 States during 1997. Plots are randomly selected from a scientifically drawn sample of soybean fields, which are visited monthly from August through harvest, to obtain specific counts and measurements. Sample data and the derived percentages from the surveys presented in the following table are not Agricultural Statistics Board official estimates but are intended to show trends in soybean production practices. Soybeans: Pods with Beans per 18 Square Feet Selected States, 1993 - 1997 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : and : 1993 : 1994 : 1995 : 1996 : 1997 Month : : : : : ------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number of Pods : AR Sept 2/: NA NA NA NA NA Nov : 1,399 1,782 1,755 1,521 Final : 1,327 1,673 1,609 1,481 : IL Sept : 1,937 1,745 1,816 1,505 1,828 Nov : 1,712 1,639 1,764 1,573 Final : 1,701 1,636 1,764 1,581 : IN Sept : 1,938 1,850 1,755 1,416 1,622 Nov : 1,703 1,574 1,677 1,470 Final : 1,703 1,570 1,677 1,457 : IA Sept : 1,336 1,887 1,739 1,654 1,889 Nov : 1,340 1,820 1,611 1,463 Final : 1,340 1,820 1,616 1,463 : MN Sept : 1,037 1,678 1,613 1,543 1,585 Nov : 1,106 1,496 1,501 1,487 Final : 1,105 1,496 1,501 1,487 : MO Sept : 1,493 1,470 895 1,491 1,539 Nov : 1,727 1,643 1,462 1,688 Final : 1,699 1,659 1,469 1,655 : NE Sept : 1,469 1,676 1,404 1,715 1,716 Nov : 1,414 1,826 1,420 1,514 Final : 1,445 1,826 1,420 1,514 : OH Sept : 1,617 1,950 1,790 1,452 1,711 Nov : 1,361 1,643 1,647 1,378 Final : 1,361 1,643 1,650 1,383 ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on pod counts in plots selected for objective yield samples. 2/ Not available due to plant immaturity. Cotton: Cumulative Boll Counts The National Agricultural Statistics Service conducts cotton objective yield surveys in 5 States which account for about 63 percent of the U.S. Upland cotton production. Plots are randomly selected from a scientific sample of cotton fields. Two sample plots per field are visited monthly from about August 1 through harvest to obtain specific counts and measurements. The boll counts shown below represent actual data collected from sampled fields and are not official estimates of NASS. Cotton: Cumulative Boll Counts, September 1993-1997, and November and Final, 1993-1996 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Arkansas : California :------------------------------------------------------------------------ Year : Sep : Nov : Final : Sep : Nov : Final -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : 1993 : 859 769 753 930 839 839 1994 : 1,019 813 812 828 805 806 1995 : 850 689 689 751 682 680 1996 : 857 752 741 707 772 750 1997 : 978 701 :------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Louisiana : Mississippi :------------------------------------------------------------------------ : 1993 : 746 662 661 697 619 608 1994 : 808 747 748 864 761 760 1995 : 679 615 615 682 607 607 1996 : 659 655 623 816 770 741 1997 : 637 906 :------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Texas :------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Sep : Nov : Final :------------------------------------------------------------------------ : 1993 : 505 480 489 1994 : 515 484 486 1995 : 423 409 415 1996 : 387 504 505 1997 : 511 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes small bolls (less than one inch in diameter), large unopened bolls (at least one inch in diameter), open bolls, partially opened bolls, and burrs, per 40 feet of row. In November, excludes small bolls. Crop Moisture Depicts short term (up to about 4 weeks) abnormal dryness or wetness affecting Agriculture, responds rapidly, can change considerably week to week, and indicates normal conditions at the beginning and end of the growing season. Uses...applicable in measuring the short term, week-to-week, status of dryness or wetness affecting warm season crops and field operations. Limitations...may not be applicable to germination and shallow rooted crops which are unable to extract the deep or subsoil moisture from a 5-foot profile, or for cool season crops growing when temperatures are averaging below about 55 degrees fahrenheit. It is not generally indicative of the long term (months, years) drought or wet spells which are depicted by the drought severity index. Drought Severity Drought severity index (Palmer): Depicts prolonged (months, years) abnormal dryness or wetness; responds slowly; changes little from week to week; and reflects long term moisture runoff, recharge, and deep percolation, as well as evaportranspiration. Uses...applicable in measuring disruptive effects of prolonged dryness or wetness on water sensitive economies; designating disaster areas of drought or wetness and reflecting the general long-term status of water supplies in aquifers, reservoirs, and streams. Limitations...is not generally indicative of short-term (few weeks) status of drought or wetness such as frequently affects crops and field operations (this is indicated by the crop moisture index). August Weather Summary: For the first time since 1961, no named tropical systems prowled Atlantic waters during August. The combination of dominant northwesterly winds and a lack of tropical moisture left the Southeast under an intensifying dry spell. Farther west, a procession of cold fronts eased dryness across the central Corn Belt and held temperatures 1 to 3 degrees F below normal. The fronts also delivered drought relief to the northern Middle Atlantic region. Continuing a trend that developed in mid-July, monsoonal moisture sparked locally intense thunderstorms in the Southwest and contributed to above-normal rainfall on the central Plains. Over southern Texas, however--beneath the center of the same high-pressure system that steered tropical moisture into the Southwest--very hot (up to 3 degrees F above normal), dry weather prevailed for a second consecutive month. In northern California and western Oregon, the remnants of the eastern Pacific Tropical Storm Ignacio dropped out-of-season rainfall on August 19-20. Strong high-pressure systems delivered nearly three dozen daily-record lows to the Southeast on August 1 and 2, and another five dozen to the Central and Eastern States from August 5 to 9. After a mid-month heat wave in the East, which included the highest reading in Washington, DC (105 degrees F) since July 10, 1936, another cool period resulted in an additional four dozen records between August 22 and 28. The first cool wave produced the earliest sub-50 degree reading in Asheville, NC (49 degrees F on August 1); the last yielded a monthly record low in Tallahassee, FL (57 degrees F on August 23). Despite generally cool weather in the Southeast, little rain fell. Record-low August totals were reported in Mobile, AL (1.04 inches) and Columbia, SC (0.22 inches). Mobile's August rainfall stood in sharp contrast to July's total of 18.52 inches, 70 percent of which fell during Hurricane Danny's passage. Farther west, dry weather gripped southern Texas for a second consecutive month. Although San Antonio's 42-day dry spell ended on August 7, only 0.62 inches fell there during the month. Hot weather exacerbated the short-term dryness across southern Texas. Corpus Christi registered 101 degrees F on August 22, their highest reading since August 27, 1990. In Rio Grande City, high temperatures averaged 105.1 degrees F during August, a record for any month. In addition, their highs reached or exceeded 100 degrees F on every day from June 29 to August 31, a total of 64 days, second only to a 73-day streak in 1957. Although August began dry in the central Corn Belt, much-needed moisture arrived by mid-month. In Peoria, IL, where the June-July rainfall of 2.28 inches was only 28 percent of normal, 6.11 inches (197 percent of normal) fell during August. A few dry pockets lingered or developed in parts of the western Corn Belt, where August rainfall totaled 0.63 inches in Sioux City, IA and 1.37 inches in Norfolk, NE. Across the central Corn Belt, the summer of 1997 ended with fewer days of 90-degree heat--5 to 20 days--than the 10 to 40 days normally observed. Arizona bore the brunt of damaging flash floods during the month, including two that resulted in fatalities. Farther northeast, monsoonal moisture interacted with cold fronts. In Wyoming, Cheyenne's rainfall of 4.33 inches was their third-highest August total. On August 11, Grand Island, NE reported a daily-record total of 3.22 inches en route to a monthly total of 7.15 inches. And in Dodge City, KS, 3.09 inches fell on August 5-6, their fourth-highest 24-hour total in August. The month started out hot along the West Coast, with about three dozen daily records reported from August 1 to 7. On August 6, Simi Valley, CA logged a monthly record high of 109 degrees F. Although extremely hot weather abated in interior areas thereafter, unusually warm conditions persisted along the coast due to El Nin!o-warmed ocean water. In Eureka, CA, the mercury reached or exceeded 70 degrees F on a record-setting 11 consecutive days at month's end. In Oregon, Astoria's third-longest dry spell on record ended on August 20 at 35 days, a victim of remnant moisture from Tropical Storm Ignacio. A day earlier, 0.73 inches fell in downtown San Francisco, CA, just 0.05 inches shy of their August-record total, set in 1976 during the passage of Hurricane Catherine's remnants. Rainfall more typical of the approaching autumn season arrived at month's end across the Pacific Northwest. On August 26, both Eureka (0.47 inches) and Astoria (1.01 inches) posted daily-record rainfalls. Significant rainfall returned to the northern Middle Atlantic States during August, but drought persisted in many areas south of the Mason-Dixon Line. A noteworthy low-pressure system moved through the region on August 20-21, producing locally excessive totals. In Atlantic City, NJ, the storm dumped 13.52 inches in 19 hours, boosting their August rainfall to an all-time-record (for any month) 16.12 inches. Farther south, however, monthly rainfall totaled only 1.41 inches in Richmond, VA and 1.01 inches in Raleigh-Durham, NC. An August 16-17 heat wave aggravated the dryness, as temperatures soared into the upper 90's to lower 100's across the affected areas. Farther west, hot weather developed late in the month over the Intermountain West and spread onto the Plains. On August 24 in North Dakota, highs peaked at daily-record levels of 100 degrees F at both Dickinson and Williston. General Crop Comments: As August began, crop conditions declined in the Corn Belt, with scattered showers providing limited or no relief from persistent dryness in an area extending from Missouri northeastward to New York. However, below-normal temperatures in the area moderated the stress somewhat and reduced evaporation rates. As the month progressed, widespread rains brought relief to dry fields. Although continued below-normal temperatures slowed crop development, corn and soybean progress remained ahead of normal in the western Corn Belt. Progress in the eastern Corn Belt slowed to near-normal levels. Above-normal temperatures in the Corn Belt and Plains the last week of August provided much-needed heat and prompted rapid crop development. Despite starting the month moist, soils in the Southeast and Texas turned dry. Condition of cotton, soybeans, peanuts, and other late-planted crops declined due to lack of moisture. Cotton progress was behind normal in the Southeast, but ahead of normal in the western cotton-producing States. Likewise, rice fields in California progressed 2 weeks ahead of normal, while fields in the Southeast developed and were harvested behind the average pace. Peanut harvest was just underway late in the month. Winter wheat harvest started late in the Northwest because of cool, wet weather earlier in the spring. Once harvest started in Washington, it progressed rapidly under clear skies. Harvest in Idaho, Montana, and Oregon was hampered by showers and progressed behind the normal pace. Planting of the 1998 winter wheat crop was just underway at month's end. Spring wheat and barley harvest started slowly at the beginning of the month, but very warm, dry weather over the northern Plains allowed progress to surpass the average by the end of August. Oat harvest progressed ahead of the normal pace for all of August. Monsoonal moisture in the Rocky Mountains and central Plains provided adequate moisture for sorghum fields. Fields developed ahead of normal in most major sorghum-producing States, especially Colorado, Kansas, and Missouri. Mid-month rainfall provided some relief from drought-like conditions in the mid-Atlantic States, but may have come too late to save some crops. Corn: Acreage harvested and to be harvested for grain is forecast at 74.0 million acres, unchanged from last month, but up 1 percent from 1996. The September 1 Corn Objective Yield data indicate a record level stalk count for the seven objective yield States (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Ohio, and Wisconsin). The September forecasted ear count per acre is the highest on record, and if realized, would exceed the previous record final ears per acre set in 1996. Ear measurements from the sample plots indicate a length equal to last year but slightly less than the average. As of August 31, 42 percent of the acreage was reported dented in the 17 major States. This compares with 32 percent last year and 40 percent for the five-year average. Corn rated in the fair to good condition totaled 78 percent compared to 71 percent for a year ago. In Iowa, forecasted stalk and ear populations are both at record levels when compared to final counts. Ear length is equal to the average (1992-96) but slightly above 1996. Forty-three percent of the corn was dented as of August 31, compared to 18 percent in 1996 and the average of 33 percent. Corn condition was 79 percent fair to good. Forecasted stalk and ear counts are at a record high level for Illinois when compared to final levels. Ear length is below last year and the 1992-96 time period average. Fifty-four percent of the corn was dented compared to 33 percent last year and 47 percent for the five-year average. Seventy-eight percent of the corn was rated in fair to good condition. Nebraska and Ohio stalk counts from objective yield data indicate record high levels. Forecasted ear population is above the five-year average for both States. Ear length in Nebraska is below 1996 but above the five-year average. In Ohio, ear length is above 1996 but equal to the average for 1992-96. Corn dented was ahead of the average in Nebraska but lagged behind the average in Ohio. Corn dented in Nebraska was 41 percent by August 31, compared to 32 percent for 1996 and the average of 40 percent. Ohio corn was 17 percent dented compared to 9 percent for last year and the average of 36 percent. In Nebraska and Ohio 75 percent of the corn crop was rated in fair to good condition. In Minnesota, forecasted stalk counts are lower than 1996 but higher than the average. The forecasted ear population is above the five-year average. Ear length is above last year and the average. The corn dented in Minnesota was at 25 percent compared to 12 percent for last year and the average of 24 percent. The majority (75 percent) of corn in Minnesota was rated in good to excellent condition. Forecasted stalk and ear counts in Indiana and Wisconsin are above the five-year average. Ear length is above last year and the average in Wisconsin but below last year and the average in Indiana. Thirty-seven percent of the corn in Indiana was dented compared to 28 percent in 1996 and the average of 42 percent. In Wisconsin, 8 percent of the corn was dented compared to 11 percent in 1996 and the average of 22 percent. The majority (78 percent) of corn in Indiana was rated in fair to good condition. In Wisconsin, 84 percent of the corn was rated in good to excellent condition. Sorghum for Grain: Production is forecast at 653 million bushels, 4 percent above the August forecast but 19 percent below the 1996 total. Area harvested and to be harvested was unchanged from August at 9.51 million acres, down 20 percent from the previous year. The forecasted yield, at 68.7 bushels per acre, was up 2.5 bushels from last month and 1.2 bushels above 1996. Timely August rains in the major sorghum producing areas helped improve conditions and boost expected yields. The crop was rated in mostly good to fair condition as of August 31. Coloring was seven points ahead of normal at 58 percent, but maturity was four points behind the five-year average. Half of the twelve September forecast States showed yield increases from August with Missouri, Kansas, and Colorado showing the largest increases. Louisiana was the only State to show a decline from August, dropping three bushels per acre. Of Kansas's late season crops, sorghum appears to have benefitted most from the rains during August. Yields in the top producing State increased five bushels from August to 75.0 bushels per acre. Forecasted production, however, is still only three-fourths of their 1996 record crop. Recent precipitation and favorable weather in Colorado helped improve sorghum conditions and yield prospects from the previous month. Development is slightly behind normal, but no disease problems have been reported. Rainfall during August also helped revive the New Mexico crop and expectations are high among growers for the best yields in four years. As of the last week in August, harvest had just begun in Arkansas and was well underway in Louisiana and Texas with 39 and 47 percent combined, respectively. Grain harvest had just started along the southern border of Kansas. Barley: Production is forecast at 379 million bushels, down slightly from August and 4 percent below the 1996 production. The expected yield per acre is forecasted at 59.3 bushels, down 0.1 bushels from last month but 0.8 bushels above 1996. Area harvested and to be harvested was unchanged from August at 6.40 million acres, down 6 percent from the previous year. Yields remained unchanged from August in eight of the eleven September forecast States, but declined in Minnesota and South Dakota. Washington was the only State to show an increase from August, up two bushels per acre. Favorable weather during August helped push harvest progress ahead of normal in most of the major producing States. Seventy-five percent of the crop had been combined by August 31, compared with the 65 percent normally harvested at this time. Favorable conditions in North Dakota allowed for the majority of the State's crop to be combined during August. Harvest was winding down in South Dakota, Washington, and Wisconsin. Durum Wheat: September 1 conditions point to no yield changes in Minnesota, Montana and South Dakota. About half of Montana's Durum crop was harvested while North Dakota combining was ahead of both last year and the 5-year average. Condition ratings on the remaining North Dakota crop were impacted by scab in the northeast. Objective yield survey head counts in North Dakota are the lowest since 1988. Head weights continue to trend lower as the effect of the westward movement of the acreage is becoming more pronounced. Other Spring Wheat: As of August 31, Washington's spring wheat harvest was 95 percent complete as excellent conditions prevailed. Conversely, frequent rains have slowed the Idaho harvest. Very good yields have been realized in Washington. Hard Red Spring harvest in the major states (Minnesota, Montana, and North and South Dakota) was ahead of average progress. South Dakota's crop is not yielding as high as expected in some areas. Scab damage is evident on both sides of the Red River. Objective Yield survey data show plant populations well above average in Minnesota, and slightly better than average in Montana and North Dakota. Montana's weight per head forecast is similar to 1994. Minnesota's forecast is about average for the last five years. The North Dakota weight per head forecast is lower than any in the 1983-1996 period, with the lowest weights occurring in the eastern third of the state. Rice: Rice production is forecast at 181 million cwt, down fractionally from August 1 but up 6 percent from 1996. If realized, this would be the third highest production on record. Area for harvest is unchanged from August 1 and is 9 percent above last year. Yields are expected to average a near-record 5,975 pounds per acre, down 19 pounds from August 1 and 146 pounds below 1996's record level. Yield prospects in Arkansas, California, Missouri, and Texas remained unchanged from a month ago. The California harvest is well ahead of normal, but Arkansas and Texas trail the 5-year average by 7 and 25 percent, respectively. Growers in California experienced excellent planting weather, got the crop in early, and it is now in fair-to-good condition. Harvest is expected to be most active around mid-September as the majority of the crop reaches maturity. In Arkansas, the crop developed rapidly during August and by month's end was rated 77 percent good-to-excellent condition. Below-normal temperatures prompted some growers to apply fungicides to their crops. The Louisiana harvest was 65 percent complete with most of the remaining acreage in the northern part of the state. Harvested yields didn't meet earlier expectations due to the lateness of the crop and untimely rains before and during harvest. The crop in Mississippi was slightly larger than earlier estimated. In Texas, conditions improved after a very late start. Soybeans: Growers plan to harvest 69.8 million acres, unchanged from the August 1 forecast and up 10 percent from 1996. Crop maturity is ahead of last year and normal. Dry conditions with normal summertime temperatures caused stress to beans in some parts of the Southeast. Drought-like conditions prevailed across the Mid-Atlantic causing severe stress to the crop. Cool temperatures across the Eastern and Western Corn Belt during early to mid August slowed crop development early on. However, warmer temperatures and improved moisture toward the end of the month improved crop progress. As of August 31 for the major States, the percent of soybeans setting pods was 6 points ahead of last year and 4 points ahead of the five year average. Pod setting was complete as of August 31 in Iowa, Louisiana, Michigan, Nebraska, and Ohio. The percent of soybeans setting pods were behind last year and the five year average in Alabama, Mississippi, and Tennessee. The percent of soybeans dropping leaves was behind 1996 and the five year average at the beginning of September for the 19 major producing States. The September Objective Yield pod count for the objective yield states is the second highest on record. Pod counts for the September survey period were the highest on record in Iowa and Nebraska, and the second highest on record in Illinois. Peanuts: Production is forecast at 3.66 billion pounds, down 4 percent from the August 1 forecast and down fractionally from 1996. Production is down from a year ago in all the major peanut states except Florida, New Mexico, and Texas. Harvested area, estimated at 1.38 million acres, is down 1 percent from August 1 but virtually unchanged from 1996. North Carolina and Oklahoma were the only states to adjust their acreage from the August report, dropping their expectations by 9,000 acres and 5,000 acres, respectively. The U.S. peanut yield is expected to average 2,642 pounds per harvested acre, down 75 pounds from last month and down 11 pounds from 1996. Production in the Southeastern States (Alabama, Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina) is expected to total 2.09 billion pounds, down 4 percent from last month and 3 percent below the 1996 crop. Yield for the 4-State area is expected to average 2,618 pounds per acre, down 96 pounds from August 1 and 18 pounds below last year. Yield prospects in Alabama are unchanged from August 1 but 55 pounds below a year ago. Early harvest is underway and the crop was in mostly fair-to-good condition on September 1. The Georgia crop outlook deteriorated compared with a month ago. Very dry conditions and only scattered showers prevailed during most of August. Digging has begun on the earliest fields, but soils are hard, making digging difficult. Florida growers expect good yields with 9 percent of the crop harvested by September 1. Virginia-North Carolina production is forecast at 533 million pounds, 7 percent below last month and 9 percent below last year's crop. Yield per harvested acre in the region, at 2,731 pounds, is 188 pounds per acre below last year's final average. Cool weather early in the growing season slowed crop development followed by a hot, dry summer contributed to decreased crop prospects in the Virginia-North Carolina area. Growers are hoping for a repeat of last year's near-perfect fall conditions to improve yields. The peanut crop in the Southwest (New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas) is expected to total 1.03 billion pounds, down 3 percent from last month but 12 percent above 1996. Yields in the tri-state area are expected to average 2,649 pounds per acre, 35 pounds below last month, 105 pounds above last year, and 626 pounds above 1995. New Mexico producers reported excellent crop prospects with no disease problems and adequate soil moisture. Yield prospects in Oklahoma remained unchanged from a month ago as the crop continues to make good progress. In Texas, favorable weather and increased plantings have propelled production to record levels. Fields in the Plains were approaching maturity under hot, dry conditions. Beneficial rains during August improved crop condition in Central and South Central Texas. Cotton: Upland cotton harvested acreage, at 13.2 million acres, is up 27,000 acres from last month, and up 5 percent from last year. American-Pima harvested acreage is unchanged from August, at 249,000 acres, but down 3 percent from 1996. Texas' High Plains cotton benefitted from rainfall received during early August, but cooler than normal temperatures limited that development. In mid-August, warm temperatures returned and bolls in the Blacklands and central areas began opening rapidly. Harvest in the Coastal Bend, Upper Coast, and Rio Grande Valley proceeded in late August with no weather related delays. In early September, harvest in the Valley neared completion. In mid-August, 93 percent of Texas' acreage was setting bolls, 10 points ahead of the 5-year average. On September 7, Texas boll opening was at 28 percent, 3 points behind the 5-year average. Crop condition in Texas in early September showed 60 percent rated good to excellent and 30 percent in fair condition. Objective yield survey data indicate Texas' large boll counts are the third highest during the past 10 years, and small bolls and squares rank fourth and fifth, respectively, for the same period. The Oklahoma crop is showing excellent potential as a result of the beneficial weather in August, despite the boll weevil infestations. The Delta States (Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, and Tennessee) rated their cotton mostly in fair to good condition on September 7, although Mississippi rated 62 percent of their acreage in good to excellent condition, and Tennessee reported 65 percent of their crop as good to excellent. Missouri's crop began the month showing only 30 percent rated in good to excellent condition, but on September 7, showed 48 percent in these two categories. Boll setting in this region was slightly ahead of average in mid-August, although Tennessee's boll set was slightly behind the average pace. Boll opening was well behind average in this region. Mississippi's crop was 36 percent opened, 30 points behind the average and Arkansas was 15 points behind normal, with 21 percent of the bolls open. Tennessee's crop was 11 percent opened, compared to the 5-year average of 39 percent. Data from cotton objective yield plots show Arkansas has the fifth highest count of large bolls since 1987, and small bolls rank second, but squares are the third lowest. Mississippi's large bolls are the sixth highest in the past 10 years, and small bolls and squares rank third and sixth, respectively. Louisiana ranks last in large boll counts during the previous 10 years, and small boll and square counts rank sixth and ninth, respectively, since 1987. Eighty-nine percent of Arizona's crop was in good to excellent condition and 90 percent of bolls were opening in early September, which equaled the 5-year average. In late August, defoliation was active in Arizona's western area and harvest had begun. Cotton development in California remained ahead of average, with 80 percent of the crop showing open bolls compared to an average pace of 59 percent. All of the acreage was in good to excellent condition on September 7. The California crop showed minimal signs of stress following the high temperatures of early August, and growers continued to spray for aphids, lygus, mites, worms, and whitefly. Some California fields received the final irrigation, and defoliation began in southern Kern county and was active in the Desert areas. Objective yield survey counts for California indicate the third lowest count of large bolls during the past 10 years, while small bolls are next to lowest and square counts are the lowest during the same time period. In the Southeastern States (Alabama, Georgia, North Carolina, and South Carolina), the crop's condition was at least 50 percent good to excellent, except for Alabama, which rated 22 percent in good condition and only 1 percent as excellent, on September 7. States in this region saw a decline in condition. The dry, cool conditions during much of the growing season caused boll set to remain behind average for all States in the region. In mid-August, Alabama's boll set was 7 points less than the 5-year average and South Carolina's acreage was 17 points behind the normal pace. Boll opening was also behind normal for these States with Georgia showing bolls opening on 24 percent of the acreage, North Carolina with 15 percent, and Alabama at 22 percent. The American-Pima production forecast, at 544,000 bales, is up 3 percent from 1996's output, but down 10,000 bales from August. The U.S. yield is indicated at 1,049 pounds per harvested acre, up 58 pounds from last year. California was the only State with a change in production from the August forecast, and their yield was lowered 26 pounds from last month. The crop development in California remained at least two weeks ahead of normal, and insect pressure was very light this year. In Arizona, defoliation was active in the Western areas, and central area growers are finishing with irrigation for the season. In Texas, the crop continued making good progress. Ginnings totaled 365,900 running bales prior to September 1, compared with 342,400 running bales ginned to the same date last year and 433,000 running bales in 1995. Summer Potatoes: The final forecast of 1997 summer potato production is 17.3 million cwt, up 5 percent from the July forecast but 11 percent below a year ago. Harvested area is estimated at 66,000 acres, 12 percent below last year and 7 percent below two years ago. The average yield of 262 cwt per acre gained 10 cwt from the July report on the strength of better yields in the Midwest and is 1 cwt above last year. Yields are better than last year in most of the Midwest and Central States. Colorado and Nebraska yields are record high, although Colorado harvest was interrupted in August by heavy rains. Texas' yields are higher than anticipated in July. Harvest in Missouri is nearly finished, with yields above last year. Digging is completed in California after a good growing season. Dry weather cut yields along the Central Atlantic Coast. New Jersey and Delaware yields dropped 20 cwt from last year. Virginia yields fell 45 cwt as harvest came early and from mostly dry soils. Maryland yields increased, however, with extensive use of irrigation. Alabama yields varied with the timing of showers during the growing season. Fall Potatoes, 1996 Final: Production of 1996 fall potatoes is finalized at a record large 453 million cwt, up 13 percent from 1995 and 7 percent above the previous record in 1994. Farmers harvested 1.25 million acres, up 3 percent from the previous two years. The average yield was a record high 364 cwt per acre, up 12 cwt from the previous record in 1994 and 30 cwt above 1995. Compared with preliminary estimates made last December, larger crops were registered in Colorado and Idaho; smaller crops were seen in Oregon, Rhode Island, and South Dakota. All Potatoes, 1996: Final production of potatoes from all four seasons in 1996 totaled 499 million cwt, up 12 percent from a year earlier and 7 percent above 1994. Area harvested is estimated at 1.43 million acres, 4 percent above 1995 and 3 percent above 1994. Yield, averaging 350 cwt per acre, jumped 27 cwt from a year earlier and 11 cwt from two years ago. In 1996, all seasonal groups increased in production from the previous year: Winter jumped 32 percent; spring increased 11 percent; summer rose 9 percent; and fall potatoes gained 13 percent. Tobacco: U.S. all tobacco production for 1997 is forecast at 1.61 billion pounds, down 1 percent from August 1 but up 6 percent from 1996. Harvested acreage, estimated at 794,750 acres, is down 190 acres from August 1. This reduction in acres of cigar type tobacco in Connecticut and Massachusetts is due to a major outbreak of blue mold. U.S. all tobacco yield for 1997 is expected to average 2,031 pounds per acre, 15 pounds below last month and 40 pounds below the average for 1996. Flue-cured production is expected to total 964 million pounds, up 6 percent from 1996. Producers plan to harvest 450,700 acres, up 7 percent from last year. The North Carolina flue-cured tobacco harvest is running 2 to 3 weeks late, with only 50 percent of the crop harvested by September 1, as compared to the five-year average of 62 percent. In Georgia, warm and dry temperatures during August contributed to a rapid harvest pace. By the end of August, harvest was about 2 weeks ahead of normal. Virginia growers are characterizing the crop as fairly normal, with extremes of very poor fields to excellent fields. South Carolina's harvest progress, at 87 percent, is nearly complete, with the remaining acres reported to be in mostly good condition. Overall flue-cured yield is expected to average 2,138 pounds per acre, down 43 pounds from the August 1 forecast and 13 pounds below last year. Weather conditions across North Carolina have been dry, and yields have shown a marked decrease. Burley production is expected to total 561 million pounds, up 1 percent from August 1 projections and 8 percent above the 1996 production. Burley tobacco growers expect to harvest 301,300 acres, up 12 percent from last year. Yield is expected to average 1,864 pounds per acre, up 15 pounds from August 1 but 76 pounds below the average for 1996. Increased yield prospects in Tennessee more than offset decreased yields in North Carolina, Ohio, and Tennessee. Kentucky, with 71 percent of the 1997 burley production, is expected to produce 9 percent more tobacco than a year ago. Crop conditions remain mostly fair to good, with 22 percent of the crop cut at the end of August. Florida Citrus: Florida's citrus groves, trees, and new crop fruit were in very good condition. August was wetter than normal but had normal temperatures. An abundance of new growth on trees of all ages has been generated by the near tropical weather conditions. New crop fruit in well cared for groves is making very good progress. A few fresh fruit packing houses are planning to pack new crop grapefruit in September. The maturity tests of grapefruit, Navel and Ambersweet orange, and Fallglo tangerine groves are near or above the passing levels. There has been a little premature splitting of early fruit in the wetter groves. Caretakers have been very active cutting cover crops that grew well with the heavy summer rains. Many growers are sprayed and fertilized between the summer rains. Dead tree removal continued along with some replanting in the bigger groves. California Citrus: The Valencia harvest slowed early in August, but picked up by the end of the month. Red grapefruit and lemons were also harvested during August. The new navel crop was ahead of normal and maturing well with large fruit sizes. Sugarbeets: Production for the U.S. is expected to total 29.4 million tons, an increase of 10 percent from 1996 but down 1 percent from the August "Crop Report". Area for harvest, at 1.43 million acres, is up 8 percent from last year but down slightly from the August forecast. The average yield, at 20.5 tons per acre, is 0.3 tons above 1996 but 0.1 tons below the yield forecasted in August. Condition of North Dakota sugarbeets remained mostly good to excellent during August. Factories in North Dakota and Minnesota are preparing for the start of lifting in the middle of September. California sugarbeet growers have experienced mostly favorable growing conditions throughout the 1997 season. Sugarbeets continued to develop favorably in the central Plains. In Michigan, August rainfall benefited the sizing of the crop. Sugarcane: U.S. sugarcane production for sugar and seed in 1997 is expected to total 29.7 million tons, up 1 percent from 1996 and up fractionally from the August "Crop Report". The expected area for harvest, at 915,000 acres, is 3 percent above last year. The expected harvested acreage is up 20,000 acres from the August forecast. The forecasted yield, at 32.4 tons per acre, is 0.7 tons below 1996 and down 0.6 tons from August. The Florida sugarcane growing area has had no major storm damage so far this season. Florida growers were making preparations to plant while mills were preparing to begin milling in late October. In Hawaii, weather during August was generally favorable for crop progress and harvesting. Shower activities were confined to windward and upper elevations. Sugarcane yield in Louisiana is expected to be a little lower than in 1996. Too much rain during the growing season, then a recent drought that stunted stubble cane, didn't allow the root system to develop. The recent 10-12 day stretch of no rain has allowed Louisiana farmers to make excellent planting progress. Irrigation water supplies are still a concern in Texas. Papayas: Hawaii fresh papaya production is estimated at 2.72 million pounds for August, 6 percent lower than last month and 9 percent lower than August 1996. August weather conditions were a mix of light rainfall and sunny periods. Papaya ringspot virus continued to depress yields of infected fields. Area devoted to papaya production totaled 5,350 acres, 1 percent more than July and 50 percent more than last August. Harvested area, totaling 2,335 acres, was virtually unchanged from last month but 40 percent higher than a year ago. California Fruits and Nuts: The almond harvest intensified, expanding north from the central San Joaquin Valley. The harvest of early variety walnuts began in the southern and central San Joaquin Valley. Table grape harvest remained active. Raisin and wine grape harvesting gained momentum. Peach, plum, and nectarine picking slowed during the month. Prunes were sent to dehydrators. Fuji, Gala, and other early variety apples were harvested. The harvest of Bartlett pears, Asian pears, and pomegranates continued. The olive crop was light, but was sizing normally. Hazelnut: Hazelnut Production in Oregon and Washington is forecast to be 40,000 tons this year. If realized, this would be the second largest crop after the 41,000 ton crop of 1993. Production is expected to be up 116 percent from last year and 3 percent above 1995. Oregon's share of the crop is expected to be 39,800 tons, compared to last year's 18,400 tons and 3 percent above 1995's 38,800 tons. Washington production is forecast at 200 tons this season, double last year's 100 tons but the same as 1995. Crop progress is somewhat ahead of normal, following nearly 40 days without rain. Several factors have contributed to this season's large production expectations. First, with hazelnut's tendency towards alternate year bearing, the small crop of 1996 would point to a larger crop this year. Second, largely favorable winter and spring weather conditions allowed for good catkin development, excellent pollination, and a large nut set. The results of the objective measurement survey showed the average number of sampled nuts was over 3 times that of last year, and 45 percent greater than in 1995. The percentage of good nuts was slightly larger than in 1996 and the same as in 1995. Both the average size of good nuts and their average weight were very similar to 1995 but smaller than last year. Brown stained nuts amounted to 3.3 percent of the sample, the second highest proportion since records of brown stain incidence began in 1984 and about 1.3 percentage points above the average. Walnuts: California walnut production is forecast at 230,000 tons, up 11 percent from 1996's crop of 208,000 tons. This is unchanged from the July forecast. The July forecast was based upon subjective information provided by growers. The September forecast is based upon the Walnut Objective Measurement Survey conducted July 28 through August 23, 1997. Survey data indicated an average nut set of 1,753, up 8 percent from 1996's average of 1,630. The Hartley nut set was up 20 percent; Serr, down 44 percent; and Franquette, down 8 percent from 1996. Percent of sound kernels in-shell was 97.3 percent Statewide. In-shell weight per nut was 22.9 grams, while the average in-shell suture measurement was 32.3 millimeters. The average length in-shell was 38.6 millimeters. Pistachios: California pistachio production is forecast at a record 170 million pounds, up 62 percent from 1996's 105 million pounds. This forecast is based upon an objective measurement survey completed August 10, 1997. In recent years, production has remained more stable as Pioneer Gold rootstock has increasingly replaced the older Atlantica rootstock. The Pioneer Gold generally bears heavy on even years and the Atlantica on odd. The estimated average number of clusters per tree was 1,049. The estimated total number of filled nuts per tree was 8,326 compared with 5,007 in 1996. The average number of nuts per cluster, including both filled and blank, was 10.4 nuts per cluster. The percent of nuts filled was 76.0 percent. The average in-hull weight per nut including blanks was 2.78 grams, compared to 2.52 grams in 1996. The in-hull cross suture measurement, at 14.92 millimeters, was slightly larger than the 14.87 millimeters in 1996. Average kernel weight was .896 grams. The average suture was 10.56 millimeters, the average cross suture was 9.60 millimeters, and the kernel length was 16.55 millimeters. Due to an earlier than usual spring, the crop is approximately one to two weeks ahead of normal. Pecans, 1997 Crop: The September 1 forecast for pecan production is 292 million pounds (in-shell basis), up 32 percent from last year's crop of 222 million pounds. Improved varieties are forecast at 213 million pounds, 73 percent of the total. Native varieties increased 61 percent from last year to 78.8 million pounds. Alabama and Louisiana were the only states to report smaller expected production this year than last year. Arizona and Georgia expect the same size crops as 1996. Georgia's production is set at 100 million pounds, the same as last year. After a heavy nut set, recent dry conditions have lowered potential production. Diseases and insects have also been difficult to control. The Texas forecast is 75.0 million pounds, 88 percent above last year. This level represents the good growing season, while accounting for loss due to a late spring freeze. Reduced insect damage and the wet spring provided sufficient moisture for the native trees to increase their share of the crop from 25 percent to 33 percent. New Mexico expects 42.0 million pounds, 91 percent more than last year's reduced crop. Nut drop was average during August. The crop has remained in mostly good condition throughout the summer with an adequate supply of irrigation water and minimal insect problems. Oklahoma forecasts 18.0 million pounds of pecans, compared with the 2.00 million pounds produced last year. Weather has been ideal with a mild summer and above average rainfall during August. Arizona is forecast at 17.0 million pounds, the same as last year. Louisiana's pecan crop is expected to reach 13.0 million pounds, 19 percent below the previous year. Disease pressures have been normal to moderate. Moisture shortages could still affect final production. Alabama expects a 1997 crop of 8.00 million pounds. Heavy rains and high winds from Hurricane Danny caused considerable damage. An extremely dry August caused additional nuts to drop prematurely. Scab infestations have also taken a toll. Mississippi production is forecast at 4.00 million pounds. Pecan tree regrowth, from the devastating ice storms of 1993-1994, is promising. Kansas, at 3.50 million pounds, is expecting a good crop due to favorable weather. South Carolina's forecast is 3.00 million pounds, 20 percent over last year. California is recording a 115 percent increase, from 1.30 million last year to 2.80 million for 1997. Arkansas is expecting to double last year's output, coming in at 2.40 million. Florida, at 2.30 million, will be 21 percent over 1996. North Carolina is up marginally to 1.00 million pounds. The two hurricanes in 1996 have impacted the 1997 production. Reliability of September 1 Crop Production Forecasts Survey Procedures: Objective yield and farm operator surveys were conducted between August 25 and September 3 to gather information on expected yield as of September 1. The objective yield surveys for wheat, corn, soybeans, and cotton were conducted in the major producing States that usually account for about 75 percent of the U.S. production. Randomly selected plots were revisited to make current counts. The items counted within the selected plots depend on the crop and the maturity of that crop. In all cases, number of plants are recorded along with other measurements that provide information to forecast the number of heads, ears, pods, or bolls and their weight. The counts are used with similar data from previous years to develop a projected biological yield. The five-year average harvesting loss is subtracted to obtain a net yield. The plots are revisited each month until crop maturity when the fruit is harvested and weighed. After the farm operator has harvested the sample field, another plot is sampled to obtain current year harvesting loss. The farm operator survey was conducted primarily by telephone with some use of mail and personal interviewers. Approximately 15,000 producers were interviewed during the survey period and asked questions about probable yield. Estimating Procedures: National and State level objective yield and grower reported survey estimates were reviewed for errors, reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. The survey data were also reviewed considering weather patterns and crop progress compared to previous month and previous years. Each State Statistical Office submits their analysis of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State analysis to prepare the published September 1 forecast. Revision Policy: The September 1 production forecast will not be revised; instead a new forecast will be made each month throughout the growing season. At the end of the marketing year administrative records and a balance sheet are utilized using carryover stocks, production, exports, processing, feeding, and ending stocks. Revisions are then made if data relationships warrant changes. Harvested acres may be revised any time a production forecast is made if there is strong evidence that the intended harvested area has changed since the last estimate. Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the September 1 production forecasts, the "Root Mean Square Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the September 1 production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of squared percentage deviations for the 1977-1996 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent years. For example, the "Root Mean Square Error" for the September 1 corn for grain production forecast is 5.9 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current production forecast of 9.27 billion bushels will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 5.9 percent or approximately 547 million bushels. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 10.1 percent or approximately 936 million bushels. Also, shown in the following table is a 10-year record for selected crops of the differences between the September 1 forecast and the final estimates. Using corn again as an example, changes between the September 1 forecast and the final estimate during the past 10 years have averaged 445 million bushels, ranging from 10 million to 893 million bushels. The September 1 forecast has been below the final estimate 6 times and above 4 times. This does not imply that the September 1 corn forecast this year is likely to understate or overstate final production. For most crops, the number of years the forecasts have been below or above the final estimate is about equally distributed. Reliability of September 1 Crop Production Forecasts ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ :Root Mean Square Error:: 10-year Record of :----------------------:: Differences Between Forecast : :90% Confidence:: and Final Estimate Crop and : : Level ::------------------------------- Unit :Percent:--------------:: Quantity :No. of Years : : : ::------------------------------- : :Percent: Quant:: : :Below:Above : : : :: Avg:Small:Large:Final:Final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Mil ::----- Mil ----- : :: Corn for Grain Bu: 5.9 10.1 936 :: 445 10 893 6 4 Sorghum for Grain Bu: 7.3 12.7 83 :: 44 1 115 6 4 Barley Bu: 3.6 6.5 25 :: 12 3 38 4 6 All Wheat Bu: 1.4 2.5 63 :: 31 2 97 2 8 Durum Bu: 5.6 9.8 9 :: 4 1 12 4 6 Other Spring Bu: 3.6 6.3 35 :: 19 1 62 4 6 Rice Cwt: 4.3 7.3 13 :: 6 0 16 6 4 Soybeans for : :: Beans Bu: 5.1 8.8 242 :: 96 19 201 5 5 Cotton Bales 1/: 6.3 10.9 2008 :: 979 84 2,366 6 4 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Quantity is in thousands of bales. Index Page Table Narrative Barley........................................ A-11 B- 6 Citrus Fruits................................. A-24 B-11 Corn for Grain................................ A-9 B- 4 Corn-Plants per Acre.......................... A-28 Cotton........................................ A-17 B- 8 Cotton - Cummulative Boll Counts.............. A-31 Cottonseed.................................... A-16 Crop Moisture Maps............................ B- 1 Crop Summary.................................. A- 3 Nuts.......................................... A-26 B-11 Papayas - Hawaii.............................. A-26 B-11 Peanuts ...................................... A-16 B- 7 Pecans........................................ A-27 B-12 Potatoes...................................... A-18 B- 9 Reliability Statement......................... B-14 Rice.......................................... A-14 B- 6 Rice - By Grain Length........................ A-14 Sorghum for Grain............................. A-10 B- 5 Soybeans for Beans............................ A-15 B- 7 Soybeans - Pods for Beans..................... A-30 Sugarbeets.................................... A-25 B-11 Sugarcane for Sugar and Seed.................. A-25 B-11 Tobacco by Class and Type..................... A-22 B-10 Tobacco by States............................. A-21 Wheat, All.................................... A-12 Wheat, by Class............................... A-14 Wheat, Durum.................................. A-13 B- 6 Wheat, Other Spring........................... A-13 B- 6 Wheat, All Spring- Heads per Acre............. A-29 Report Features The next "Crop Production" report will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET on October 10, 1997. Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. C. Ray Halley, Chief (202) 720-2127 Field Crops Section Bill Dowdy, Head (202) 720-3843 Kevin Barnes - Soybeans, Minor Oilseeds (202) 720-7369 Rhonda Brandt- Sugar Crops, Weekly Crop Weather, Oats (202) 720-7621 Dan Kerestes - Corn (202) 720-9526 Roger Latham - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings (202) 720-5944 Joel Moore - Barley, Hay, Sorghum (202) 690-3234 Barbara Rater - Peanuts, Rice (202) 720-7688 Vaughn Siegenthaler - Wheat, Rye (202) 720-8068 Fruit, Vegetable & Special Crops Section Vince Matthews, Head (202) 720-3843 Arvin Budge - Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes (202) 720-4285 Dave DeWalt - Citrus, Tropical Fruits (202) 720-5412 Howard Hill - Cherries, Berries, Prunes, Plums, Cranberries, Grapes, Maple Syrup (202) 720-7235 Dave Mueller - Fresh and Processing Vegetables, Onions (202) 720-2157 Dave Ranek - Nuts, Floriculture (202) 720-4215 Linda Simpson - Noncitrus Fruits, Mint, Dry Beans & Peas, Mushrooms, Hops (202) 690-0270 Debbie Williams - Apples, Strawberries, Tobacco (202) 720-4288 The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination in its programs on the basis of race, color, national origin, sex, religion, age, disability, political beliefs, and marital or familial status. Persons with disabilities who require alternative means for communication of program information (braille, large print, audiotape, etc.) should contact the USDA's TARGET Center at 202-720-2600 (voice and TDD). To file a complaint, write the Secretary of Agriculture, USDA, Washington, D.C., 20250, or call 1-800-245-6340 (voice) or 202-720-1127 (TDD). USDA is an equal employment opportunity employer. ACCESS TO REPORTS!! For your convenience, there are several ways to obtain NASS reports, data products, and services: INTERNET ACCESS All NASS reports are available free of charge on the worldwide Internet. For access, connect to the Internet and go to the NASS Home Page at: http://www.usda.gov/nass/. Select "Today's Reports" or Publications and then Reports by Calendar or Publications and then Search, by Title or Subject. E-MAIL SUBSCRIPTION All NASS reports are available by subscription free of charge direct to your e-mail address. Send an e-mail message to: usda-reports@usda.mannlib.cornell.edu. In the body of the message type the word: list. AUTOFAX ACCESS NASSFax service is available for some reports from your fax machine. Please call 202-720-2000, using the handset attached to your fax. Respond to the voice prompts. Document 0411 is a list of available reports. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - PRINTED REPORTS OR DATA PRODUCTS CALL OUR TOLL-FREE ORDER DESK: 800-999-6779 (U.S. and Canada) Other areas, please call 703-834-0125 FAX: 703-834-0110 (Visa, MasterCard, check, or money order acceptable for payment.) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ASSISTANCE For assistance with general agricultural statistics or further information about NASS or its products or services, contact the Agricultural Statistics Hotline at 800-727-9540, 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET, or e-mail: nass@nass.usda.gov. USDA to Hold Data Users Meeting Holiday Inn Mart Plaza Chicago, Illinois October 20, 1997 The National Agricultural Statistics Service will be organizing an open forum for Data Users. The purpose will be to provide updates on pending changes in the USDA statistical and information programs including the status of the 1997 Census of Agriculture, and to seek comments and input from data users. Other agencies to be represented will include the Agricultural Marketing Service, the Economic Research Service, the Foreign Agricultural Service, and the World Agricultural Outlook Board. For registration details, see the NASS home page http://www.usda.gov/nass/ or contact Fred Vogel (NASS) (202) 720-3896 or fvogel@nass.usda.gov