HDR1012000110011110970830CROP PRODUCTION Crop Production National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released November 10, 1997, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Crop Production" call (202) 720-2127, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. Forecasts refer to November 1, 1997. Index and report features are located at the end of this report. Corn and Soybeans Up Fractionally Cotton Up Two Percent Corn production is forecast at 9.36 billion bushels, less than 1 percent above last month and 1996. If realized, this will be the third highest corn production on record behind 1994 and 1992. Based on conditions as of November 1, yields are expected to average 126.4 bushels per acre, up 0.6 bushels from last month but down 0.7 bushels from 1996. Acreage harvested and to be harvested for grain is forecast at 74.0 million acres, unchanged from last month. Yield prospects increased in Minnesota, Ohio, and Wisconsin. Forecasted yield decreased in Illinois. Indiana, Iowa, and Nebraska yields remained unchanged. As of November 2, corn harvest in the major producing States was 75 percent complete. Soybean production is forecast at a record 2.74 billion bushels, virtually unchanged from the October 1 forecast, but up 15 percent from 1996. The previous record of 2.52 billion bushels was set in 1994. The yield is forecast at 39.2 bushels per acre, 0.2 bushels above the October 1 forecast and 1.6 bushels above last year. The forecasted yield increased from the previous month in Indiana and Ohio, but decreased in Iowa and Nebraska. Forecasted yields in the remaining major producing States were unchanged. As of November 2, the soybean harvest was 89 percent complete. Cr Pr 2-2 (11-97) All cotton production is forecast at 18.8 million bales, up 2 percent from October but down less than 1 percent from 1996. This is the fourth largest crop on record. Yield is expected to average 673 pounds per acre, down 34 pounds from last year. Production in Arkansas, Louisiana, and Mississippi increased 370,000 bales from the previous forecast. Open weather prevailed most of the month, allowing bolls to finish opening in the Delta. Georgia's production was lowered 50,000 bales from October. Heavy rains in the southeastern States during late October delayed harvest. This report was approved on November 10, 1997. Secretary of Agricultural Statistics Board Agriculture Chairperson Dan Glickman Rich Allen Crop Summary: Utilized Production, United States, 1995-96, 1996-97, and Forecasted 1997-98 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Utilized Production :--------------------------------------------------------- Crop : : : October 1, : : : 1997 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop Year 2/ : 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 : : 1,000 Tons : Citrus Fruits : Oranges : 11,427 12,827 14,309 Grapefruit : 2,718 2,888 2,824 Lemons : 992 859 935 Tangerines : 349 418 370 Temples (FL) : 97 108 104 Tangelos (FL) : 110 178 149 K-Early Citrus (FL) : 7 7 6 : : : Metric Tons : : Oranges : 10,366,400 11,636,460 12,980,910 Grapefruit : 2,465,730 2,619,950 2,561,890 Lemons : 899,930 779,270 848,220 Tangerines : 316,610 379,200 335,660 Temples (FL) : 88,000 97,980 94,350 Tangelos (FL) : 99,790 161,480 135,170 K-Early Citrus (FL) : 6,350 6,350 5,440 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Citrus production is no longer forecasted in November. October 1 forecasts repeated. The next citrus forecast will be in December 1997. 2/ The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest the following year. Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 1996 and Forecasted November 1, 1997 (Domestic Units) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted : Area Harvested 1/ Crop :------------------------------------------------------- : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 : 1997 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres : Corn : 79,487 80,227 73,147 74,049 Sorghum : 13,188 10,268 11,901 9,512 Rice : 2,819 3,065 2,799 3,037 Soybeans : 64,205 70,850 63,409 69,816 Peanuts : 1,401.5 1,404.0 1,380.0 1,384.5 All Cotton : 14,633.5 13,905.0 12,868.1 13,436.5 Upland : 14,375.5 13,655.0 12,612.2 13,187.5 Amer-Pima : 258.0 250.0 255.9 249.0 Potatoes : Fall : 1,269.9 1,192.8 1,246.7 1,161.3 Total : 1,455.8 1,365.0 1,426.0 1,328.8 Tobacco : 732.7 795.3 Sugarbeets : 1,368.4 1,464.8 1,323.3 1,430.4 Sugarcane for : Sugar and Seed : 888.9 914.5 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Harvested for principal use of each crop, ie., grain, beans, nuts, etc. Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 1996 and Forecasted November 1, 1997 (Metric Units) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted : Area Harvested 1/ Crop :------------------------------------------------------- : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 : 1997 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Hectares : Corn : 32,167,590 32,467,060 29,601,860 29,966,890 Sorghum : 5,337,050 4,155,360 4,816,220 3,849,410 Rice : 1,140,820 1,240,370 1,132,730 1,229,040 Soybeans : 25,983,120 28,672,290 25,660,990 28,253,840 Peanuts : 567,170 568,180 558,470 560,290 All Cotton : 5,922,030 5,627,210 5,207,590 5,437,620 Upland : 5,817,620 5,526,040 5,104,030 5,336,850 Amer-Pima : 104,410 101,170 103,560 100,770 Potatoes : Fall : 513,920 482,710 504,530 469,970 Total : 589,150 552,400 577,090 537,750 Tobacco : 296,510 321,830 Sugarbeets : 553,780 592,790 535,530 578,870 Sugarcane for : Sugar and Seed : 359,730 370,090 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Harvested for principal use of each crop, ie., grain, beans, nuts, etc. Crop Summary: Yield per Acre and Production, United States, 1996 and Forecasted November 1, 1997 (Domestic Units) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Yield per Acre : Production :----------------------------------------------------- Crop and Unit : : : : Oct 1, : Nov 1, : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 : 1997 : 1997 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------- 1,000 ------------- : Corn for Grain Bu : 127.1 126.4 9,293,435 9,311,705 9,359,485 Sorghum for Grain " : 67.5 69.2 802,974 664,499 658,508 Rice 1/ Cwt : 6,121 5,926 171,321 179,383 179,971 Soybeans for Beans Bu : 37.6 39.2 2,382,364 2,721,843 2,736,115 Peanuts Lb : 2,653 2,528 3,661,205 3,514,625 3,500,375 All Cotton 1/ Bale : 707 673 18,942.0 18,409.5 18,847.5 Upland 1/ " : 701 666 18,413.5 17,863.5 18,299.5 Amer-Pima 1/ " : 991 1,056 528.5 546.0 548.0 Cottonseed Ton : 7,143.5 7,058.8 7,228.8 Potatoes : Fall Cwt : 364 360 453,436 417,533 Total " : 350 346 498,633 459,426 Tobacco Lb : 2,071 2,069 1,517,334 1,646,796 1,645,580 Sugarbeets Ton : 20.2 21.0 26,680 29,638 29,998 Sugarcane for : Sugar and Seed " : 33.1 32.5 29,462 29,695 29,689 Hazelnuts " : 18.5 40.0 41.0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Yield in pounds. Crop Summary: Yield per Hectare and Production, United States, 1996 and Forecasted November 1, 1997 (Metric Units) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Yield per Hectare: Production :----------------------------------------------------- Crop : : : : Oct 1, : Nov 1, : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 : 1997 : 1997 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Metric Tons : Corn for Grain : 7.97 7.93 236,064,120 236,528,200 237,741,870 Sorghum for Grain : 4.23 4.35 20,396,480 16,879,050 16,726,870 Rice : 6.86 6.64 7,770,990 8,136,680 8,163,350 Soybeans for Beans : 2.53 2.64 64,837,320 74,076,430 74,464,850 Peanuts : 2.97 2.83 1,660,690 1,594,210 1,587,740 All Cotton : 0.79 0.75 4,124,140 4,008,200 4,103,560 Upland : 0.79 0.75 4,009,070 3,889,320 3,984,250 Amer-Pima : 1.11 1.18 115,070 118,880 119,310 Cottonseed : 6,480,470 6,403,640 6,557,860 Potatoes : Fall : 40.77 40.30 20,567,510 18,938,980 Total : 39.19 38.75 22,617,610 20,839,210 Tobacco : 2.32 2.32 688,250 746,970 746,420 Sugarbeets : 45.20 47.01 24,203,690 26,887,140 27,213,820 Sugarcane for : Sugar and Seed : 74.30 72.78 26,727,480 26,938,850 26,933,410 Hazelnuts : 16,780 36,290 37,190 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 1996-97 (Domestic Units) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted : Area Harvested Crop :------------------------------------------------------- : 1996 : 1997 1/ : 1996 : 1997 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres : Oats : 4,661 5,169 2,685 2,911 Barley : 7,144 6,910 6,767 6,425 All Wheat : 75,621 70,989 62,927 63,577 Winter : 51,958 48,342 39,679 41,813 Durum : 3,630 3,250 3,556 3,107 Other Spring : 20,033 19,397 19,692 18,657 Rye : 1,467 1,433 347 341 Sunflower : 2,556 2,920 2,499 2,807 Flaxseed : 96 152 92 146 All Hay : 61,029 60,807 Alfalfa : 24,291 23,556 All Other : 36,738 37,251 Dry Edible Beans : 1,813.0 1,913.6 1,717.7 1,743.1 Dry Edible Peas : 215.9 292.6 204.9 274.6 Austrian Winter Peas : 8.6 6.1 7.3 5.4 Lentils : 147.2 174.0 140.0 164.0 Potatoes : Winter : 14.5 15.6 14.5 15.4 Spring : 93.4 87.7 90.0 86.1 Summer : 78.0 68.9 74.8 66.0 Sweetpotatoes : 89.1 87.8 84.8 84.7 Hops : 44.2 44.0 Ginger Root (HI) : 0.2 0.3 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast. Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 1996-97 (Metric Units) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted : Area Harvested Crop :------------------------------------------------------- : 1996 : 1997 1/ : 1996 : 1997 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Hectares : Oats : 1,886,260 2,091,840 1,086,590 1,178,050 Barley : 2,891,110 2,796,410 2,738,540 2,600,130 All Wheat : 30,603,060 28,728,540 25,465,930 25,728,980 Winter : 21,026,880 19,563,520 16,057,690 16,921,300 Durum : 1,469,020 1,315,240 1,439,080 1,257,370 Other Spring : 8,107,150 7,849,770 7,969,160 7,550,300 Rye : 593,680 579,920 140,430 138,000 Sunflower : 1,034,390 1,181,690 1,011,320 1,135,960 Flaxseed : 38,850 61,510 37,230 59,080 All Hay : 24,697,830 24,607,980 Alfalfa : 9,830,320 9,532,880 All Other : 14,867,500 15,075,110 Dry Edible Beans : 733,700 774,410 695,140 705,420 Dry Edible Peas : 87,370 118,410 82,920 111,130 Austrian Winter Peas : 3,480 2,470 2,950 2,190 Lentils : 59,570 70,420 56,660 66,370 Potatoes : Winter : 5,870 6,310 5,870 6,230 Spring : 37,800 35,490 36,420 34,840 Summer : 31,570 27,520 30,270 26,710 Sweetpotatoes : 36,060 35,530 34,320 34,280 Hops : 17,870 17,790 Ginger Root (HI) : 80 110 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast. Crop Summary: Yield per Acre and Production, United States, 1996-97 (Domestic Units) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Yield per Acre : Production Crop and Unit :----------------------------------------------------- : 1996 : 1997 1/ : 1996 : 1997 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------- 1,000 --------- : Oats Bu : 57.8 60.5 155,273 176,104 Barley " : 58.5 58.3 395,751 374,478 All Wheat " : 36.3 39.7 2,285,133 2,526,552 Winter " : 37.2 45.0 1,477,058 1,882,609 Durum " : 32.6 27.7 116,090 86,193 Other Spring " : 35.1 29.9 691,985 557,750 Rye " : 26.0 26.1 9,016 8,912 Sunflower Lb : 1,435 1,334 3,586,615 3,745,280 All Hay Ton : 2.45 2.50 149,457 152,141 Alfalfa " : 3.27 3.32 79,377 78,168 All Other " : 1.91 1.99 70,080 73,973 Dry Edible Beans 2/ Cwt : 1,592 1,678 27,354 29,255 Dry Edible Peas 2/ " : 1,304 2,098 2,671.0 5,760.0 Austrian Winter : Peas 2/ " : 1,411 1,519 103 82 Lentils 2/ " : 952 1,387 1,333 2,274 Potatoes : Winter " : 226 203 3,273 3,124 Spring " : 249 250 22,417 21,498 Summer " : 261 262 19,507 17,271 Hops Lb : 1,698 1,680 74,970.5 73,838.0 Ginger Root (HI) " : 47,000 44,000 9,400 12,100 Apples, Comm'l " : 10,355,000 10,423,900 Peaches " : 2,070,300 2,643,900 Pears Ton : 820.8 1,019.8 Grapes " : 5,548.2 6,659.4 Sweet Cherries " : 154.3 191.3 Tart Cherries Lb : 270,300 242,200 Apricots Ton : 79.8 132.0 Olives (CA) " : 166.0 95.0 Dried Prunes (CA) " : 220.0 215.0 Prunes and Plums : (excl CA) " : 20.0 28.4 Almonds (CA) Lb : 510,000 680,000 Pecans " : 221,500 275,000 Walnuts (CA) Ton : 208.0 230.0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast. 2/ Yield in pounds. Crop Summary: Yield per Hectare and Production, United States, 1996-97 (Metric Units) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Yield per Hectare : Production Crop :----------------------------------------------------- : 1996 : 1997 1/ : 1996 : 1997 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Metric Tons : Oats : 2.07 2.17 2,253,780 2,556,140 Barley : 3.15 3.14 8,616,460 8,153,300 All Wheat : 2.44 2.67 62,191,130 68,761,480 Winter : 2.50 3.03 40,198,930 51,236,220 Durum : 2.20 1.87 3,159,450 2,345,790 Other Spring : 2.36 2.01 18,832,750 15,179,470 Rye : 1.63 1.64 229,020 226,380 Sunflower : 1.61 1.50 1,626,860 1,698,830 All Hay : 5.49 5.61 135,585,110 138,020,000 Alfalfa : 7.33 7.44 72,009,600 70,912,820 All Other : 4.28 4.45 63,575,510 67,107,180 Dry Edible Beans : 1.78 1.88 1,240,760 1,326,980 Dry Edible Peas : 1.46 2.35 121,150 261,270 Austrian Winter Peas : 1.58 1.70 4,670 3,720 Lentils : 1.07 1.55 60,460 103,150 Potatoes : Winter : 25.29 22.74 148,460 141,700 Spring : 27.92 27.99 1,016,820 975,130 Summer : 29.23 29.33 884,820 783,400 Hops : 1.90 1.88 34,010 33,490 Ginger Root (HI) : 53.25 49.91 4,260 5,490 Apples, Comm'l : 4,696,950 4,728,200 Peaches : 939,070 1,199,250 Pears : 744,570 925,100 Grapes : 5,033,240 6,041,260 Sweet Cherries : 139,980 173,500 Tart Cherries : 122,610 109,860 Apricots : 72,390 119,750 Olives (CA) : 150,590 86,180 Dried Prunes (CA) : 199,580 195,040 Prunes and Plums : (excl CA) : 18,140 25,760 Almonds (CA) : 231,330 308,440 Pecans : 100,470 124,740 Walnuts (CA) : 188,690 208,650 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast. Fall Potatoes: Area Planted by State and United States, 1995-97 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : State : Fall Potatoes : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres : CA : 10.5 CO : 77.0 ID : 390.0 IN : *5.3 ME : *71.0 MA : 2.7 MI : 49.0 MN : 79.0 MT : 10.4 NE : *19.6 NV : 7.3 NM : 6.3 NY : 30.0 ND : 125.0 OH : *5.3 OR : *54.5 PA : 15.0 RI : 0.8 SD : 4.5 UT : 3.1 WA : 148.0 WI : 78.0 WY : *0.5 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Year : United States -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1995 : 1,224.1 1996 : 1,269.9 1997 : 1,192.8 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- * Updated from the July 12, 1997, "Crop Production" report. Corn for Grain: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 1996 and Forecasted November 1, 1997 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production :---------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : 1997 : : : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 :-------------------: 1996 : 1997 : : : : Oct 1 : Nov 1 : : ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :-- 1,000 Acres -- ------- Bushels ------- -- 1,000 Bushels -- : AL : 280 260 82.0 95.0 95.0 22,960 24,700 AZ 1/ : 40 45 175.0 175.0 175.0 7,000 7,875 AR 1/ : 230 170 125.0 110.0 110.0 28,750 18,700 CA : 220 260 160.0 180.0 170.0 35,200 44,200 CO : 940 1,030 142.0 148.0 148.0 133,480 152,440 CT 2/ : DE : 150 146 143.0 110.0 105.0 21,450 15,330 FL 1/ : 112 80 88.0 100.0 100.0 9,856 8,000 GA : 525 500 95.0 110.0 110.0 49,875 55,000 ID 1/ : 40 40 135.0 145.0 145.0 5,400 5,800 IL : 10,800 11,000 136.0 129.0 127.0 1,468,800 1,397,000 IN : 5,450 5,850 123.0 120.0 120.0 670,350 702,000 IA : 12,450 11,950 138.0 140.0 140.0 1,718,100 1,673,000 KS : 2,350 2,700 152.0 135.0 140.0 357,200 378,000 KY : 1,200 1,220 124.0 110.0 103.0 148,800 125,660 LA 1/ : 523 490 125.0 115.0 115.0 65,375 56,350 ME 2/ : MD : 465 450 139.0 75.0 80.0 64,635 36,000 MA 2/ : MI : 2,300 2,300 94.0 113.0 111.0 216,200 255,300 MN : 6,950 6,450 125.0 130.0 133.0 868,750 857,850 MS 1/ : 605 470 102.0 105.0 105.0 61,710 49,350 MO : 2,650 2,850 134.0 120.0 120.0 355,100 342,000 MT 1/ : 15 15 137.0 130.0 130.0 2,055 1,950 NE : 8,300 8,800 143.0 132.0 132.0 1,186,900 1,161,600 NH 2/ : NJ 1/ : 94 102 126.0 95.0 95.0 11,844 9,690 NM 1/ : 84 85 175.0 170.0 170.0 14,700 14,450 NY : 630 660 107.0 116.0 116.0 67,410 76,560 NC : 900 900 95.0 85.0 87.0 85,500 78,300 ND : 720 650 91.0 95.0 92.0 65,520 59,800 OH : 2,750 3,450 111.0 130.0 134.0 305,250 462,300 OK 1/ : 170 180 145.0 150.0 150.0 24,650 27,000 OR 1/ : 33 20 165.0 185.0 185.0 5,445 3,700 PA : 1,070 1,120 119.0 85.0 90.0 127,330 100,800 RI 2/ : SC : 380 335 79.0 100.0 100.0 30,020 33,500 SD : 3,700 3,350 100.0 100.0 100.0 370,000 335,000 TN : 680 650 116.0 105.0 105.0 78,880 68,250 TX : 1,800 1,800 112.0 135.0 138.0 201,600 248,400 UT 1/ : 21 21 130.0 125.0 125.0 2,730 2,625 VT 2/ : VA : 310 340 126.0 83.0 88.0 39,060 29,920 WA 1/ : 120 110 185.0 190.0 190.0 22,200 20,900 WV 1/ : 40 45 105.0 95.0 95.0 4,200 4,275 WI : 3,000 3,100 111.0 124.0 132.0 333,000 409,200 WY 1/ : 50 55 123.0 122.0 122.0 6,150 6,710 : US : 73,147 74,049 127.1 125.8 126.4 9,293,435 9,359,485 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast. 2/ Not estimated. Sorghum for Grain: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 1996 and Forecasted November 1, 1997 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production :---------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : 1997 : : : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 :-------------------: 1996 : 1997 : : : : Oct 1 : Nov 1 : : ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :-- 1,000 Acres -- ------- Bushels ------- -- 1,000 Bushels -- : AL 1/ : 10 9 55.0 60.0 60.0 550 540 AR : 220 150 74.0 72.0 72.0 16,280 10,800 CO : 260 160 51.0 40.0 40.0 13,260 6,400 GA 1/ : 40 40 41.0 46.0 46.0 1,640 1,840 IL : 220 150 84.0 82.0 86.0 18,480 12,900 KS : 4,600 3,550 77.0 77.0 77.0 354,200 273,350 KY 1/ : 23 13 92.0 75.0 75.0 2,116 975 LA : 153 107 76.0 75.0 72.0 11,628 7,704 MS : 72 33 70.0 65.0 65.0 5,040 2,145 MO : 580 430 91.0 89.0 89.0 52,780 38,270 NE : 1,030 800 95.0 83.0 83.0 97,850 66,400 NM : 225 230 33.0 50.0 47.0 7,425 10,810 NC 1/ : 10 11 57.0 49.0 49.0 570 539 OK : 490 490 59.0 57.0 55.0 28,910 26,950 SC 1/ : 5 4 50.0 50.0 50.0 250 200 SD : 145 170 55.0 58.0 68.0 7,975 11,560 TN 1/ : 18 15 90.0 85.0 85.0 1,620 1,275 TX : 3,800 3,150 48.0 61.0 59.0 182,400 185,850 : US : 11,901 9,512 67.5 69.9 69.2 802,974 658,508 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast. Rice: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 1996 and Forecasted November 1, 1997 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production :---------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : 1997 : : : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 :-------------------: 1996 : 1997 : : : : Oct 1 : Nov 1 : : ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :-- 1,000 Acres -- ------- Pounds ------- -- 1,000 Cwt -- : AR : 1,170 1,337 6,150 5,600 5,600 71,945 74,872 CA : 500 513 7,490 8,500 8,500 37,459 43,605 LA : 533 565 4,870 4,650 4,800 25,977 27,120 MS : 208 268 6,000 5,500 5,500 12,480 14,740 MO 1/ : 90 95 5,550 5,400 5,400 4,995 5,130 TX : 298 259 6,200 5,700 5,600 18,465 14,504 : US : 2,799 3,037 6,121 5,907 5,926 171,321 179,971 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast. Rice: Production by Class, United States, 1995-96 and Forecasted November 1, 1997 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Year : Long Grain : Medium Grain : Short Grain : All ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : 1995 : 121,730 51,241 900 173,871 1996 : 113,462 56,790 1,069 171,321 1997 1/ : 125,832 52,595 1,544 179,971 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Indicated November 1, 1997, rice class estimates are based on a five-year average of class percentages. The class percentages are adjusted as data become available through the growing season. Potatoes: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production, by Seasonal Group, State, and United States, 1995-97 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Seasonal Group : Area Harvested : Yield : Production and :---------------------------------------------------------------- State : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 : 1997 : 1995 : 1996 : 1997 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : - 1,000 Acres - ---- Cwt --- ------ 1,000 Cwt ------ : Winter 1/ : 14.5 15.4 226 203 2,473 3,273 3,124 : Spring 1/ : 90.0 86.1 249 250 20,193 22,417 21,498 : Summer 1/ : 74.8 66.0 261 262 17,931 19,507 17,271 : Fall : CA : 11.5 10.5 400 400 5,330 4,600 4,200 CO : 77.8 76.9 375 330 23,808 29,175 25,377 ID : 413.0 388.0 346 349 132,657 142,800 135,430 10 SW Co : 28.0 27.0 425 470 11,340 11,900 12,690 Other ID : 385.0 361.0 340 340 121,317 130,900 122,740 IN : 5.2 4.9 260 270 1,196 1,352 1,323 ME : 77.0 71.0 275 270 17,160 21,175 19,170 MA : 2.6 2.7 260 250 858 676 675 MI : 46.0 48.5 300 300 16,350 13,800 14,550 MN : 82.0 75.0 300 280 20,790 24,600 21,000 MT : 10.2 10.4 315 320 2,940 3,213 3,328 NE : 12.4 19.3 355 395 3,680 4,402 7,624 NV : 7.9 7.2 400 420 2,774 3,160 3,024 NM : 6.4 6.3 400 420 2,394 2,560 2,646 NY : 28.5 29.5 280 290 7,695 7,980 8,555 ND : 131.0 105.0 220 200 25,410 28,820 21,000 OH : 5.1 5.0 250 235 1,404 1,275 1,175 OR : 61.0 53.5 494 490 24,788 30,124 26,205 Malheur : 13.3 10.9 400 450 4,992 5,320 4,905 Other OR : 47.7 42.6 520 500 19,796 24,804 21,300 PA : 16.5 14.5 255 220 4,080 4,208 3,190 RI : 0.8 0.8 240 260 243 192 208 SD : 4.8 4.2 280 250 988 1,344 1,050 UT : 4.2 3.1 280 295 1,224 1,176 915 WA : 161.0 148.0 590 595 80,850 94,990 88,060 WI : 81.0 76.5 390 375 26,000 31,590 28,688 WY : 0.8 0.5 280 280 390 224 140 Total : 1,246.7 1,161.3 364 360 403,009 453,436 417,533 : US : 1,426.0 1,328.8 350 346 443,606 498,633 459,426 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast. Soybeans for Beans: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 1996 and Forecasted November 1, 1997 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production :---------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : 1997 : : : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 :-------------------: 1996 : 1997 : : : : Oct 1 : Nov 1 : : ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :-- 1,000 Acres -- ------- Bushels ------- -- 1,000 Bushels -- : AL : 315 380 34.0 26.0 23.0 10,710 8,740 AR : 3,500 3,550 32.0 32.0 32.0 112,000 113,600 DE : 217 221 35.0 28.0 30.0 7,595 6,630 FL 1/ : 33 38 32.0 30.0 30.0 1,056 1,140 GA : 390 420 26.0 20.0 20.0 10,140 8,400 IL : 9,850 9,950 40.5 43.0 43.0 398,925 427,850 IN : 5,360 5,350 38.0 42.0 44.0 203,680 235,400 IA : 9,450 10,400 44.0 48.0 47.0 415,800 488,800 KS : 2,000 2,300 37.0 35.0 36.0 74,000 82,800 KY : 1,180 1,280 38.0 38.0 36.0 44,840 46,080 LA : 1,080 1,350 33.0 30.0 29.0 35,640 39,150 MD : 480 530 37.0 25.0 27.0 17,760 14,310 MI : 1,640 1,890 28.5 39.0 39.0 46,740 73,710 MN : 5,900 6,700 38.0 40.0 40.0 224,200 268,000 MS : 1,750 2,050 31.0 29.0 30.0 54,250 61,500 MO : 4,050 4,850 37.0 37.0 37.0 149,850 179,450 NE : 3,010 3,450 45.0 41.0 40.0 135,450 138,000 NJ 1/ : 119 132 37.0 30.0 30.0 4,403 3,960 NC : 1,200 1,330 29.0 25.0 26.0 34,800 34,580 ND : 845 1,290 29.0 27.0 28.0 24,505 36,120 OH : 4,490 4,490 35.0 43.0 45.0 157,150 202,050 OK 1/ : 285 320 26.0 26.0 26.0 7,410 8,320 PA 1/ : 285 365 40.0 35.0 35.0 11,400 12,775 SC : 540 610 25.0 20.0 21.0 13,500 12,810 SD : 2,670 3,450 34.0 34.0 35.0 90,780 120,750 TN : 1,150 1,270 35.0 35.0 36.0 40,250 45,720 TX : 270 400 26.0 27.0 25.0 7,020 10,000 VA : 480 490 34.0 26.0 27.0 16,320 13,230 WI : 870 960 37.0 44.0 44.0 32,190 42,240 : US : 63,409 69,816 37.6 39.0 39.2 2,382,364 2,736,115 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast. Peanuts: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 1996 and Forecasted November 1, 1997 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production :---------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : 1997 : : : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 :-------------------: 1996 : 1997 : : : : Oct 1 : Nov 1 : : ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :-- 1,000 Acres -- ------ Pounds ------ -- 1,000 Pounds -- : AL : 191.0 189.0 2,355 2,000 2,000 449,805 378,000 FL : 82.0 82.0 2,880 2,950 2,950 236,160 241,900 GA : 533.0 518.0 2,690 2,600 2,600 1,433,770 1,346,800 NM : 16.5 17.5 2,300 2,450 2,450 37,950 42,875 NC : 125.0 121.0 2,940 2,650 2,600 367,500 314,600 OK : 81.0 78.0 2,410 2,500 2,300 195,210 179,400 SC : 10.5 10.0 3,100 3,000 3,000 32,550 30,000 TX : 265.0 295.0 2,600 2,600 2,600 689,000 767,000 VA : 76.0 74.0 2,885 2,600 2,700 219,260 199,800 : US : 1,380.0 1,384.5 2,653 2,539 2,528 3,661,205 3,500,375 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Estimates comprised of quota and non-quota peanuts. Cottonseed: Production, United States, 1995-96 and Forecasted November 1, 1997 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Production State :-------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1995 : 1996 : 1997 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : 1,000 Tons : US : 6,848.7 7,143.5 7,228.8 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Based on a 3-year average lint-seed ratio. Cotton: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Type, State, and United States, 1996 and Forecasted November 1, 1997 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production 1/ :-------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : 1997 : : : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 :------------------: 1996 : 1997 : : : : Oct 1 : Nov 1 : : ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -- 1,000 Acres -- -------- Pounds -------- 1,000 Bales 2/ : Upland : AL : 516.0 420.0 734 526 571 789.0 500.0 AZ : 314.0 329.0 1,189 1,138 1,196 778.0 820.0 AR : 990.0 930.0 793 769 846 1,636.0 1,640.0 CA : 995.0 875.0 1,153 1,207 1,207 2,390.0 2,200.0 FL 3/ : 98.2 100.0 637 720 720 130.4 150.0 GA : 1,336.0 1,435.0 747 702 686 2,079.0 2,050.0 KS 3/ : 4.0 13.5 492 480 480 4.1 13.5 LA : 885.0 625.0 697 653 730 1,286.0 950.0 MS : 1,100.0 960.0 819 820 880 1,876.0 1,760.0 MO : 385.0 365.0 737 684 684 591.0 520.0 NM : 55.0 66.0 733 698 669 84.0 92.0 NC : 710.0 675.0 677 555 569 1,002.0 800.0 OK : 210.0 210.0 306 503 503 134.0 220.0 SC : 282.0 285.0 774 691 674 455.0 400.0 TN : 530.0 500.0 611 605 634 675.0 660.0 TX : 4,100.0 5,300.0 509 489 489 4,345.0 5,400.0 VA 3/ : 102.0 99.0 748 601 601 159.0 124.0 : US : 12,612.2 13,187.5 701 650 666 18,413.5 18,299.5 : Amer-Pima : AZ : 41.9 20.0 852 840 840 74.4 35.0 CA : 164.0 184.0 1,098 1,148 1,148 375.0 440.0 NM : 14.0 13.0 651 665 628 19.0 17.0 TX : 36.0 32.0 801 795 840 60.1 56.0 : US : 255.9 249.0 991 1,053 1,056 528.5 548.0 : All : AL : 516.0 420.0 734 526 571 789.0 500.0 AZ : 355.9 349.0 1,150 1,121 1,176 852.4 855.0 AR : 990.0 930.0 793 769 846 1,636.0 1,640.0 CA : 1,159.0 1,059.0 1,145 1,197 1,197 2,765.0 2,640.0 FL 3/ : 98.2 100.0 637 720 720 130.4 150.0 GA : 1,336.0 1,435.0 747 702 686 2,079.0 2,050.0 KS 3/ : 4.0 13.5 492 480 480 4.1 13.5 LA : 885.0 625.0 697 653 730 1,286.0 950.0 MS : 1,100.0 960.0 819 820 880 1,876.0 1,760.0 MO : 385.0 365.0 737 684 684 591.0 520.0 NM : 69.0 79.0 717 693 662 103.0 109.0 NC : 710.0 675.0 677 555 569 1,002.0 800.0 OK : 210.0 210.0 306 503 503 134.0 220.0 SC : 282.0 285.0 774 691 674 455.0 400.0 TN : 530.0 500.0 611 605 634 675.0 660.0 TX : 4,136.0 5,332.0 511 491 491 4,405.1 5,456.0 VA 3/ : 102.0 99.0 748 601 601 159.0 124.0 : US : 12,868.1 13,436.5 707 658 673 18,942.0 18,847.5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Production ginned and to be ginned. 2/ 480-lb net weight bales. 3/ Estimates for current year carried forward from previous forecast. Tobacco: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 1995-96 and Forecasted November 1, 1997 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production State:------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 : 1997 : 1995 : 1996 : 1997 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ Acres ----- --- Pounds ---- -------- 1,000 Pounds -------- : CT : 2,260 2,250 1,679 1,606 3,524 3,795 3,613 FL : 7,500 8,200 2,680 2,570 17,676 20,100 21,074 GA : 46,000 44,000 2,470 2,030 84,000 113,620 89,320 IN : 7,600 8,900 1,970 2,150 13,601 14,972 19,135 KY : 195,700 221,100 2,021 1,934 328,581 395,542 427,715 MD : 8,000 8,000 1,250 1,500 11,475 10,000 12,000 MA : 800 1,110 1,515 1,659 918 1,212 1,842 MO 1/ : 2,700 3,100 2,230 2,050 5,468 6,021 6,355 NC : 287,800 314,000 2,035 2,190 484,599 585,542 687,700 OH : 8,000 9,500 1,580 2,000 15,015 12,640 19,000 PA : 7,800 7,600 1,983 2,021 15,685 15,464 15,360 SC : 51,000 54,000 2,310 2,250 105,000 117,810 121,500 TN : 54,560 57,670 2,014 1,803 92,907 109,888 103,970 VA : 48,370 51,270 2,141 2,105 81,269 103,543 107,898 WV 1/ : 1,700 1,800 1,200 1,800 2,600 2,040 3,240 WI : 2,900 2,750 1,774 2,130 6,220 5,145 5,858 : US : 732,690 795,250 2,071 2,069 1,268,538 1,517,334 1,645,580 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast. Tobacco: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Class, Type, State, and United States, 1996 and Forecasted November 1, 1997 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production Class and Type :--------------------------------------------------------- : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 : 1997 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----- Acres ----- --- Pounds -- -- 1,000 Pounds -- : Class 1, Flue-cured : Type 11, Old Belts : NC : 76,000 86,000 2,120 2,050 161,120 176,300 VA : 37,700 40,000 2,235 2,200 84,260 88,000 US : 113,700 126,000 2,158 2,098 245,380 264,300 Type 12, Eastern NC : Belt : NC : 167,000 181,000 2,025 2,250 338,175 407,250 Type 13, NC Border & : SC Belt : NC : 37,000 38,000 1,980 2,350 73,260 89,300 SC : 51,000 54,000 2,310 2,250 117,810 121,500 US : 88,000 92,000 2,171 2,291 191,070 210,800 Type 14, GA-FL Belt : FL : 7,500 8,200 2,680 2,570 20,100 21,074 GA : 46,000 44,000 2,470 2,030 113,620 89,320 US : 53,500 52,200 2,499 2,115 133,720 110,394 Total 11-14 : 422,200 451,200 2,151 2,200 908,345 992,744 Class 2, Fire-cured : Type 21, VA Belt : VA : 1,100 1,200 1,580 1,500 1,738 1,800 Type 22, Eastern : District : KY : 3,800 3,900 2,720 2,450 10,336 9,555 TN : 7,500 7,600 2,550 2,400 19,125 18,240 US : 11,300 11,500 2,607 2,417 29,461 27,795 Type 23, Western : District : KY : 3,600 3,800 3,160 3,000 11,376 11,400 TN : 580 580 2,850 2,500 1,653 1,450 US : 4,180 4,380 3,117 2,934 13,029 12,850 Total 21-23 : 16,580 17,080 2,668 2,485 44,228 42,445 Class 3, Air-cured : Class 3A, Light : Air-cured : Type 31, Burley : IN : 7,600 8,900 1,970 2,150 14,972 19,135 KY : 185,000 210,000 1,980 1,900 366,300 399,000 MO 1/ : 2,700 3,100 2,230 2,050 6,021 6,355 NC : 7,800 9,000 1,665 1,650 12,987 14,850 OH : 8,000 9,500 1,580 2,000 12,640 19,000 TN : 46,000 49,000 1,915 1,700 88,090 83,300 VA : 9,500 10,000 1,835 1,800 17,433 18,000 WV 1/ : 1,700 1,800 1,200 1,800 2,040 3,240 US : 268,300 301,300 1,940 1,868 520,483 562,880 Type 32, Southern MD : Belt : MD : 8,000 8,000 1,250 1,500 10,000 12,000 PA : 3,200 3,000 1,900 1,900 6,080 5,700 US : 11,200 11,000 1,436 1,609 16,080 17,700 Total 31-32 : 279,500 312,300 1,920 1,859 536,563 580,580 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- See footnotes at end of table. --continued Tobacco: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Class, Type, State, and United States, 1996 and Forecasted November 1, 1997 (continued) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production Class and Type :--------------------------------------------------------- : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 : 1997 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----- Acres ----- --- Pounds -- --- 1,000 Pounds --- : Class 3, Air-cured : Class 3B, Dark : Air-cured : Type 35, One Sucker : Belt : KY : 2,100 2,200 2,340 2,300 4,914 5,060 TN : 480 490 2,125 2,000 1,020 980 US : 2,580 2,690 2,300 2,245 5,934 6,040 Type 36, Green River : Belt : KY : 1,200 1,200 2,180 2,250 2,616 2,700 Type 37, VA Sun-cured: Belt : VA : 70 70 1,600 1,400 112 98 Total 35-37 : 3,850 3,960 2,250 2,232 8,662 8,838 Class 4, Cigar Filler : Type 41, PA Seedleaf : PA : 4,600 4,600 2,040 2,100 9,384 9,660 Class 5, Cigar Binder : Class 5A, CT Valley : Binder : Type 51, CT Valley : Broadleaf : CT : 1,220 1,250 1,840 1,690 2,245 2,113 MA : 410 670 1,600 1,830 656 1,226 US : 1,630 1,920 1,780 1,739 2,901 3,339 Class 5B, WI Binder : Type 54, Southern WI: WI : 1,900 1,900 1,900 2,300 3,610 4,370 Type 55, Northern WI: WI : 1,000 850 1,535 1,750 1,535 1,488 Total 54-55 : 2,900 2,750 1,774 2,130 5,145 5,858 Total 51-55 : 4,530 4,670 1,776 1,969 8,046 9,197 Class 6, Cigar Wrapper: Type 61, CT Valley : Shade-grown : CT : 1,040 1,000 1,490 1,500 1,550 1,500 MA : 390 440 1,425 1,400 556 616 US : 1,430 1,440 1,473 1,469 2,106 2,116 All Cigar Types : Total 41-61 : 10,560 10,710 1,850 1,958 19,536 20,973 : All Tobacco : 732,690 795,250 2,071 2,069 1,517,334 1,645,580 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast. Sugarbeets: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 1995-96 and Forecasted November 1, 1997 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production State :---------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 : 1997 : 1995 : 1996 : 1997 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -- 1,000 Acres -- ---- Tons --- -------- 1,000 Tons -------- : CA : 82.0 102.0 29.5 30.0 3,192 2,419 3,060 CO : 51.1 67.0 20.2 19.7 715 1,032 1,320 ID : 184.0 196.0 24.8 26.6 4,728 4,563 5,214 MI : 130.0 160.0 15.1 19.0 2,970 1,963 3,040 MN : 438.0 443.0 18.2 18.2 7,434 7,971 8,063 MT : 57.5 58.5 22.6 22.0 1,193 1,300 1,287 NE : 51.2 59.6 17.8 16.6 1,186 913 989 NM : 0.9 1.6 29.8 23.5 27 38 ND : 225.3 230.0 18.7 18.5 3,929 4,213 4,255 OH : 4.6 0.9 18.8 19.0 230 86 17 OR : 16.3 17.1 25.5 26.3 404 416 450 TX : 12.6 15.5 19.2 21.5 351 242 333 WA : 13.0 18.2 35.5 37.4 461 681 WY : 56.8 61.0 18.9 20.5 1,249 1,074 1,251 : Oth : Sts 2/ : 484 : US : 1,323.3 1,430.4 20.2 21.0 28,065 26,680 29,998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Relates to year of intended harvest except for overwintered spring planted beets in CA. 2/ Includes NM and WA prior to 1996. Sugarcane for Sugar and Seed: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 1995-96 and Forecasted November 1, 1997 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield 1/ : Production 1/ State:------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 : 1997 : 1995 : 1996 : 1997 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres ---- Tons ---- -------- 1,000 Tons -------- : FL : 438.0 438.0 33.1 34.0 15,122 14,498 14,892 HI : 46.0 35.0 79.1 82.0 4,070 3,639 2,870 LA : 370.0 410.0 27.9 27.0 10,240 10,323 11,070 TX : 34.9 31.5 28.7 27.2 1,364 1,002 857 : US : 888.9 914.5 33.1 32.5 30,796 29,462 29,689 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Net tons. Hazelnuts: Utilized Production by State and United States, 1995-96 and Forecasted November 1, 1997 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Utilized Production State :----------------------------------------------------------- : 1995 : 1996 : 1997 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Tons (In-shell Basis) : OR : 38,800 18,400 40,800 WA 1/ : 200 100 200 : US : 39,000 18,500 41,000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast. Papayas: Area and Fresh Production by Month, Hawaii, 1996-97 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area : Fresh Production :------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : Total in Crop : Harvested : : :---------------------------------------------: 1996 : 1997 : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 : 1997 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------------- Acres ---------------- 1,000 Pounds : Sep : 3,585 3,070 1,630 1,955 3,005 2,685 Oct : 3,550 3,135 1,530 1,955 3,450 3,860 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Corn for Grain: Objective Yield Data The National Agricultural Statistics Service is conducting corn objective yield surveys in 7 States during 1997. Randomly selected plots in corn for grain fields are visited monthly from August through harvest to obtain specific counts and measurements. Data in this table are rounded actual counts from this survey and are not official estimates of the Agricultural Statistics Board, but are intended to show trends in corn production practices. Corn for Grain: Plant population per acre, Selected States, 1993-97 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : and : 1993 : 1994 : 1995 : 1996 : 1997 Month : : : : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number of Plants : IL Sep : 23,400 23,300 24,000 24,350 25,000 Nov : 23,300 23,200 23,650 24,200 24,900 : IN Sep : 23,300 22,800 23,900 23,550 23,700 Nov : 23,200 22,850 24,000 23,500 23,800 : IA Sep : 23,700 24,000 24,800 25,000 25,700 Nov : 23,500 23,950 24,650 24,950 25,500 : MN Sep : 25,000 26,100 26,400 26,500 26,300 Nov : 25,100 26,000 26,350 26,600 26,600 : NE Sep : 22,600 21,900 22,600 22,750 22,850 Nov : 22,200 21,700 22,500 22,700 22,850 : OH Sep : 23,200 22,800 23,400 23,100 23,450 Nov : 23,300 22,900 23,300 22,750 23,500 : WI Sep : 23,500 24,100 24,600 24,800 24,750 Nov : 23,600 23,600 24,000 24,900 24,800 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on stalk counts in plots selected for objective yield samples. Corn for Grain: Number of Ears per Acre Selected States, 1993-97 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : and : 1993 : 1994 : 1995 : 1996 : 1997 Month : : : : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number of Ears : IL Oct : 22,600 22,650 22,900 23,700 23,500 Nov : 22,600 22,600 22,850 23,600 23,400 : IN Oct : 22,400 22,150 23,000 22,750 22,150 Nov : 22,200 22,150 22,950 22,700 22,150 : IA Oct : 22,700 24,050 24,050 24,350 24,600 Nov : 22,500 24,000 24,000 24,250 24,550 : MN Oct : 23,700 26,950 25,750 26,400 26,150 Nov : 24,900 26,950 25,700 26,450 25,900 : NE Oct : 21,300 21,200 21,800 22,600 21,900 Nov : 21,100 21,300 21,700 22,550 21,900 : OH Oct : 21,700 22,400 22,650 22,300 22,500 Nov : 21,700 22,500 22,500 22,000 22,300 : WI Oct : 22,600 24,600 23,600 24,250 24,350 Nov : 23,100 24,650 23,250 24,650 24,300 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on ear counts in plots selected for objective yield samples. Corn for Grain: Frequency of Farmer Reported Row Width, Selected States, 1995-97 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Row Width (inches) State : --------------------------------------------------------------- and : Less than : : : : More than Year : 30 : 30 : 36 : 38 : 38 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : IL 1995 : 1 203 39 24 1996 : 198 29 25 1 1997 1 223 36 20 1 : IN 1995 : 3 148 28 8 1996 : 119 23 4 1997 : 149 25 5 : IA 1995 : 178 30 79 2 1996 : 2 183 24 69 1997 : 1 200 32 59 : MN 1995 : 9 114 16 22 1996 : 3 121 22 18 1 1997 : 10 126 21 16 : NE 1995 : 1 98 79 16 2 1996 : 116 91 20 1 1997 : 135 92 18 : OH 1995 : 121 7 7 1996 : 1 84 9 5 2 1997 : 1 99 10 7 1 : WI 1995 : 1 59 13 44 2 1996 : 1 45 17 19 2 1997 : 2 50 14 36 1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Corn for Grain: Percentage Distributions by Row Width and Average Row Width for Selected States, 1993-97 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : : Row Width (Inches) 1/ : State :Number :----------------------------------------------------:Average and : of : 20.5 : 20.6- : 30.6- : 34.6- : 36.6- :38.6 & : Row Year :Samples:or less : 30.5 2/: 34.5 : 36.5 : 38.5 :Greater: Width ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ :Number Percent Inches : IL 1993 : 244 50.8 17.2 13.1 15.2 3.7 32.4 1994 : 241 52.3 21.6 9.1 11.6 5.4 32.1 1995 : 268 56.7 19.4 10.5 12.3 1.1 31.9 1996 : 257 63.4 14.4 10.9 9.3 2.0 31.7 1997 : 270 61.4 17.8 11.9 7.4 1.5 31.6 : IN 1993 : 166 63.3 22.3 6.0 8.4 0.0 31.2 1994 : 158 69.7 13.9 8.2 6.3 1.9 31.2 1995 : 175 59.4 21.8 11.4 6.3 1.1 31.4 1996 : 146 60.3 21.2 8.9 7.5 2.1 31.5 1997 : 169 67.4 16.6 9.5 4.7 1.8 31.3 : IA 1993 : 259 47.4 15.5 6.6 22.0 8.5 33.1 1994 : 276 44.5 20.7 6.2 21.0 7.6 32.9 1995 : 288 45.2 14.6 7.6 21.9 10.7 33.3 1996 : 281 47.3 19.2 7.5 19.6 6.4 32.7 1997 : 281 0.7 48.8 19.2 8.2 19.9 3.2 32.5 : MN 1993 : 158 62.0 13.9 5.1 12.7 6.3 32.0 1994 : 168 61.3 15.5 7.7 9.5 6.0 31.7 1995 : 163 64.4 12.2 6.8 14.1 2.5 31.3 1996 : 165 60.6 13.9 13.9 7.9 3.7 31.8 1997 : 167 0.6 58.6 17.4 10.2 11.4 1.8 31.4 : NE 1993 : 206 34.5 18.9 22.3 18.9 5.4 33.4 1994 : 211 31.7 19.5 27.0 16.6 5.2 33.5 1995 : 205 36.1 15.6 28.3 16.1 3.9 33.6 1996 : 234 38.0 11.6 35.0 12.8 2.6 33.4 1997 : 230 37.4 17.0 30.4 13.5 1.7 33.1 : OH 1993 : 133 66.1 19.5 2.3 6.0 6.1 31.6 1994 : 127 55.9 26.8 5.5 9.4 2.4 31.5 1995 : 132 56.1 30.3 2.3 8.3 3.0 31.5 1996 : 101 64.4 17.8 5.9 9.9 2.0 31.4 1997 : 113 0.9 62.8 18.6 8.0 4.4 5.3 31.5 : WI 1993 : 112 25.9 23.3 16.0 22.3 12.5 34.0 1994 : 115 30.4 20.9 10.4 26.1 12.2 34.1 1995 : 110 36.4 15.4 8.2 23.6 16.4 34.0 1996 : 84 1.2 33.3 23.8 6.0 23.8 11.9 33.5 1997 : 91 1.1 28.5 16.5 13.2 28.6 12.1 34.0 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Spacings based on row measurements in sample plots selected for objective yield survey. 2/ For 1993 - 1995 this column of data contains information for 30.5 or less. Soybeans: Pods with Beans and Row Width The National Agricultural Statistics Service is conducting soybean objective yield surveys in 8 States during 1997. Plots are randomly selected from a scientifically drawn sample of soybean fields, which are visited monthly from August through harvest, to obtain specific counts and measurements. Sample data and the derived percentages from the surveys presented in the following table are not Agricultural Statistics Board official estimates but are intended to show trends in soybean production practices. Soybeans: Pods with Beans per 18 Square Feet Selected States, 1993 - 97 1/ 2/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : and : 1993 : 1994 : 1995 : 1996 : 1997 Month : : : : : ------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number of Pods : AR Sep 3/ : NA NA NA NA NA Nov : 1,399 1,782 1,755 1,521 2,098 Final : 1,327 1,673 1,609 1,481 : IL Sep : 1,937 1,745 1,816 1,505 1,828 Nov : 1,712 1,639 1,764 1,573 1,708 Final : 1,701 1,636 1,764 1,581 : IN Sep : 1,938 1,850 1,755 1,416 1,622 Nov : 1,703 1,574 1,677 1,470 1,532 Final : 1,703 1,570 1,677 1,457 : IA Sep : 1,336 1,887 1,739 1,654 1,889 Nov : 1,340 1,820 1,611 1,463 1,458 Final : 1,340 1,820 1,616 1,463 : MN Sep : 1,037 1,678 1,613 1,543 1,585 Nov : 1,106 1,496 1,501 1,487 1,506 Final : 1,105 1,496 1,501 1,487 : MO Sep : 1,493 1,470 895 1,491 1,539 Nov : 1,727 1,643 1,462 1,688 1,591 Final : 1,699 1,659 1,469 1,655 : NE Sep : 1,469 1,676 1,404 1,715 1,716 Nov : 1,414 1,826 1,420 1,514 1,345 Final : 1,445 1,826 1,420 1,514 : OH Sep : 1,617 1,950 1,790 1,452 1,711 Nov : 1,361 1,643 1,647 1,378 1,467 Final : 1,361 1,643 1,650 1,383 ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on pod counts in plots selected for objective yield samples. 2/ Final pod counts will be published in January. 3/ Not available due to plant immaturity. Measured Row Spacing Of Soybeans: Percentage Distribution And Average Width For Selected States, 1993-97 1/ ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Row Width Groups (Inches) : State :Number :-------------------------------------------------:Average and : of : 10.0 & : 10.1- : 18.6- : 28.6- : 34.6 & : Row Year :Samples: Less 2/ : 18.5 : 28.5 : 34.5 : Greater :Width 2/ ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Number Percent of Plots Inches : AR 1993: 125 24.2 12.5 23.8 25.8 13.7 23.8 1994: 127 30.7 10.8 16.7 14.7 27.1 23.9 1995: 119 36.2 10.5 29.0 15.5 8.8 19.7 1996: 124 35.4 6.5 19.0 26.2 12.9 21.6 1997: 126 42.9 13.5 19.4 17.5 6.7 18.0 : IL 1993: 179 38.0 6.7 3.9 40.8 10.6 21.2 1994: 185 45.6 11.4 3.0 34.6 5.4 18.4 1995: 208 57.1 10.1 2.9 26.0 3.9 16.0 1996: 202 53.2 15.2 2.2 25.5 3.9 16.0 1997: 211 55.2 18.5 3.1 21.1 2.1 15.1 : IN 1993: 149 56.0 13.4 4.0 23.2 3.4 15.6 1994: 149 58.0 13.1 1.7 23.8 3.4 15.5 1995: 148 68.0 10.2 3.4 17.0 1.4 13.3 1996: 147 69.4 11.2 2.1 14.6 2.7 13.0 1997: 148 59.3 15.6 4.8 14.9 5.4 14.4 : IA 1993: 208 23.2 6.3 5.3 50.0 15.2 26.3 1994: 207 28.3 9.9 6.0 44.2 11.6 24.2 1995: 206 28.2 10.5 5.6 40.4 15.3 24.6 1996: 216 28.3 12.3 5.1 42.2 12.1 24.4 1997: 211 25.1 19.2 4.0 42.0 9.7 22.3 : MN 1993: 103 29.6 14.6 1.9 49.0 4.9 21.3 1994: 101 36.2 12.4 6.9 35.6 8.9 20.0 1995: 98 25.0 14.3 9.7 46.4 4.6 21.6 1996: 101 30.8 11.9 10.5 38.8 8.0 21.0 1997: 97 27.8 28.9 5.1 36.1 2.1 18.8 : MO 1993: 114 41.9 7.9 4.8 23.8 21.6 22.1 1994: 150 46.4 15.0 6.0 23.3 9.3 18.0 1995: 132 53.1 14.0 5.7 22.3 4.9 16.4 1996: 125 48.4 19.2 4.4 20.4 7.6 16.7 1997: 118 47.3 30.1 5.0 11.7 5.9 15.4 : NE 1993: 71 18.3 6.3 .7 44.4 30.3 28.5 1994: 74 21.6 6.8 2.7 35.8 33.1 27.8 1995: 87 23.6 8.6 5.2 37.9 24.7 25.2 1996: 74 21.0 11.5 4.7 40.5 22.3 25.3 1997: 74 26.3 13.5 4.1 34.5 21.6 23.6 : OH 1993: 127 63.8 16.9 1.6 16.1 1.6 13.3 1994: 124 66.5 14.6 3.2 11.7 4.0 12.9 1995: 124 68.0 21.5 1.6 6.9 2.0 11.4 1996: 121 69.5 23.5 1.2 5.8 .0 10.6 1997: 122 71.3 17.6 2.9 7.4 .8 11.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on row measurements in sample plots selected for objective yield samples. 2/ Broadcast soybeans included as 10.0 inches and less but excluded in com- putation of average width. Cotton: Cumulative Boll Counts The National Agricultural Statistics Service conducts cotton objective yield surveys in 5 States which account for about 63 percent of the U.S. Upland cotton production. Plots are randomly selected from a scientific sample of cotton fields. Two sample plots per field are visited monthly from about August 1 through harvest to obtain specific counts and measurements. The boll counts shown below represent actual data collected from sampled fields and are not official estimates of NASS. Cotton: Cumulative Boll Counts, September and November 1993-1997, and Final, 1993-1996 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Arkansas : California Year :------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Sep. : Nov. : Final : Sep. : Nov. : Final -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : 1993 : 859 769 753 930 839 839 1994 : 1,019 813 812 828 805 806 1995 : 850 689 689 751 682 680 1996 : 857 752 741 707 772 750 1997 : 978 783 701 714 :------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Louisiana : Mississippi :------------------------------------------------------------------------ : 1993 : 746 662 661 697 619 608 1994 : 808 747 748 864 761 760 1995 : 679 615 615 682 607 607 1996 : 659 655 623 816 770 741 1997 : 637 670 906 870 :------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Texas :------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Sep. : Nov. : Final :------------------------------------------------------------------------ : 1993 : 505 480 489 1994 : 515 484 486 1995 : 423 409 415 1996 : 387 504 505 1997 : 511 496 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes small bolls (less than one inch in diameter), large unopened bolls (at least one inch in diameter), open bolls, partially opened bolls, and burrs, per 40 feet of row. In November small bolls are excluded. Fall Potatoes: Percent of Varieties Planted The National Agricultural Statistics Service conducts potato objective yield surveys in 7 States, accounting for 81 percent of U. S. fall production. All producing areas of each State are sampled in proportion to planted acreage. Variety data shown below are intended to provide information but are not designated as official estimates of the Agricultural Statistics Board. Fall Potatoes: Percent of Major Varieties Planted, Selected States, 1997 Crop -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State : Pct of :: State : Pct of :: State : Pct of and : Planted :: and : Planted :: and : Planted Varieties : Acres :: Varieties : Acres :: Varieties : Acres -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CO 1/ : :: Yukon Gold : 1.0 :: WI : R Nugget : 38.8 :: R Norkotah : 0.9 :: R Burbank : 27.2 R Norkotah : 37.6 :: : :: R Norkotah : 24.9 Centennial R : 12.3 :: ND : :: Snowden : 14.0 Sangre : 4.4 :: R Burbank : 31.1 :: Goldrush : 10.4 : :: Norland : 11.9 :: Norland : 9.7 ID : :: Shepody : 9.7 :: Superior : 4.4 R Burbank : 79.7 :: Frito-Lay : 7.9 :: Atlantic : 4.0 Shepody : 7.1 :: Snowden : 6.0 :: Ranger R : 1.5 R Norkotah : 5.0 :: La Soda : 5.6 :: La Soda : 0.9 Ranger R : 4.0 :: Goldrush : 4.4 :: : : :: Nor Valley : 4.1 :: US (8 States) : ME : :: Norchip : 4.0 :: R Burbank : 50.5 R Burbank : 21.5 :: Pontiac : 2.3 :: R Norkotah : 12.0 Superior : 14.2 :: R Norkotah : 2.2 :: Shepody : 8.1 Shepody : 12.4 :: La Rouge : 1.9 :: Ranger R : 4.0 Frito-Lay : 10.3 :: Kanona : 1.3 :: Norland : 3.5 Norwis : 6.2 :: Sangre : 1.0 :: R Nugget : 2.9 Atlantic : 6.1 :: Viking : 0.9 :: Snowden : 2.1 Ontario : 5.8 :: : :: Frito-Lay : 1.9 R Norkotah : 5.5 :: OR : :: Goldrush : 1.7 Katahdin : 2.4 :: R Norkotah : 38.8 :: Superior : 1.3 Snowden : 2.1 :: R Burbank : 30.9 :: Centennial R: 0.9 Goldrush : 1.9 :: Shepody : 18.2 :: Atlantic : 0.9 Chieftain : 1.6 :: Atlantic : 2.4 :: La Soda : 0.8 : :: Snowden : 2.0 :: Nor Valley : 0.6 MN : :: Ranger R : 1.8 :: All Oth Rus : 0.6 R Burbank : 49.8 :: Frito-Lay : 1.5 :: Norchip : 0.5 Shepody : 16.8 :: : :: Pontiac : 0.5 Norland : 16.5 :: WA : :: Sangre : 0.5 Goldrush : 3.0 :: R Burbank : 50.2 :: Norwis : 0.4 Pontiac : 2.6 :: R Norkotah : 17.5 :: Ontario : 0.4 Itasca : 1.9 :: Ranger R : 15.5 :: La Rouge : 0.2 Frito-Lay : 1.9 :: Shepody : 7.6 :: Katahdin : 0.2 Nor Valley : 1.1 :: All Oth Rus : 3.8 :: Kanona : 0.2 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Colorado data are from a Potato Variety Survey, which covered 43 percent of the planted acreage. Crop Moisture Depicts short term (up to about 4 weeks) abnormal dryness or wetness affecting Agriculture, responds rapidly, can change considerably week to week, and indicates normal conditions at the beginning and end of the growing season. Uses...applicable in measuring the short term, week-to-week, status of dryness or wetness affecting warm season crops and field operations. Limitations...may not be applicable to germination and shallow rooted crops which are unable to extract the deep or subsoil moisture from a 5-foot profile, or for cool season crops growing when temperatures are averaging below about 55 degrees fahrenheit. It is not generally indicative of the long term (months, years) drought or wet spells which are depicted by the drought severity index. Drought Severity Drought severity index (Palmer): Depicts prolonged (months, years) abnormal dryness or wetness; responds slowly; changes little from week to week; and reflects long term moisture runoff, recharge, and deep percolation, as well as evaportranspiration. Uses...applicable in measuring disruptive effects of prolonged dryness or wetness on water sensitive economies; designating disaster areas of drought or wetness and reflecting the general long-term status of water supplies in aquifers, reservoirs, and streams. Limitations...is not generally indicative of short-term (few weeks) status of drought or wetness such as frequently affects crops and field operations (this is indicated by the crop moisture index). October Weather Summary: Dry, warm weather prevailed across the Midwest during the first half of the month, while widespread rainfall covered the Plains. Record rains during the second week of the month caused flooding in southeastern Texas, and storms early and late in the month boosted precipitation totals across the Pacific Northwest. The weather turned cold and stormy over central and eastern parts of the country during the second half of the month. A major storm complex brought a blizzard on October 24-25 to the central Plains and several inches of rain to the Southeast. October was a wet month across the Plains, Southeast, and Northwest. Monthly precipitation totaled more than 150 percent (%) of normal over the Southeast, with rainfall amounts exceeding 8 inches from Alabama to north Georgia. Totals also attained 8 inches over southeast Oklahoma and adjacent Arkansas and more than 12 inches in extreme southeast Texas. More than one foot of rain (150-250% of normal) also fell from western Washington south to northwestern Oregon. Monthly precipitation was high (150-350% of normal) over the northern and central Plains, but on the dry side (50-80% of normal) from the Great Lakes region south to the Ohio Valley. Unusually dry weather (30-60% of normal) stretched from the interior mid-Atlantic region to New England. Monthly temperatures averaged within 2 degrees F of normal over most of the contiguous United States, with departures slightly positive over the Plains and slightly negative across the West. Alaskan temperatures averaged 3 to 7 degrees below normal over the interior. Summer warmth covered the Plains early in the month, as a dozen locations saw October record heat on October 1-3. Pierre, SD, reported 98 degrees F on October 2, tieing the monthly record set in 1993 and 1892. In contrast, readings dipped to near freezing over the mid-Atlantic region, with Scranton, PA, reporting 30 degrees F on October 2. Heavy rain and high winds battered the West Coast on October 1. A strong flow of Gulf moisture brought heavy rains and flooding to southeastern Texas on October 6-13. Month-to-date rainfall on October 13 at Corpus Christi totaled 11.92 inches, already breaking the record for the month. Record warmth covered the central and eastern States on October 5-11, when temperatures averaged 6 to 12 degrees F above normal. Temperatures in the 80's and low 90's set more than 40 daily-record highs this week. During mid-month, a strong cold front swept eastward, ending the warmth and bringing heavy rains to the central States. Abundant rain across the mid- Atlantic States ended long-term dryness. Colder air streamed southward into the central and eastern States during the following week. The blizzard on October 24-25 left 12 to 18 inches of snow on the ground across southern Nebraska and northwestern Kansas, and 1 to 3 feet across the Colorado plains. As the storm moved eastward during the following 2 days, moderate to heavy snows fell from Iowa to Michigan and northern Vermont to Maine. Thermometers dipped into the teens and single digits on October 26-27 over snow-covered ground from Colorado to Iowa. Month's end saw drier weather in the Plains, heavy rain and wind across the Pacific Northwest, and more heavy rain along the east coast. By the last day of the month, warmth had eradicated most of the left-over snow from the historic central Plains blizzard. General Crop Comments: Very warm, dry weather in the eastern United States provided excellent harvest conditions the first half of October. In the Corn Belt, soybean growers harvested their crop at a near-record pace. As soybean harvest finished, farmers immediately switched to harvesting the Nation's corn acreage. At mid-month, a killing frost and an early-season snowstorm provided the necessary conditions for drying the corn crop. Heavy snow slowed harvest for several days in the western Corn Belt. After moisture levels dropped, harvest activity surged ahead of the normal pace. Soybean harvest was slowed by late-month showers in the Southeast. Some grain storage shortages were encountered as grain bins filled rapidly and some elevators were forced to use temporary storage facilities. Cotton harvest progressed ahead of normal in the western cotton-producing States, but behind normal in eastern States. Unseasonably hot weather in the Southwest helped cotton fields to dry out after Tropical Storm Nora. Much-needed heat helped the Texas crop progress early in the month. However, heavy rains and flooding caused lint loss and damage to quality at mid-month. Farmers in the Southeast harvested cotton, rice and peanuts between rains. Rice harvest neared completion at mid-month and peanut harvest was in the later stages by the end of October. Favorable weather during early October allowed sorghum growers to harvest ahead of the normal pace in the Plains and Corn Belt. However, the early-season snowstorm October 24-25 halted activity in Colorado, Nebraska, and Kansas. Harvest of fall-season crops proceeded under favorable conditions in the northern Plains most of the month, but above-normal precipitation hampered fieldwork in the Northwest. Early-month moisture fell along the middle and northern Atlantic Coast, but came too late to help most crops. Late-month showers hampered harvest efforts in these States. Early in the month, very warm, dry weather allowed planting of the 1998 winter wheat crop to progress rapidly in many States, especially Kansas, Oklahoma, and Oregon. Planting also progressed rapidly in the Corn Belt as farmers immediately followed a rapid fall harvest with winter wheat seeding. Later on, a major early-season storm system brought blizzard conditions to the central Plains and western Corn Belt, as well as rain to the Southeastern United States. Although planting was delayed by the storm, newly emerged fields benefitted from the precipitation. Rainfall early and late in the month benefited seeded acreage in the Pacific Northwest. Corn for Grain: Acreage to be harvested for grain is forecast at 74.0 million acres, unchanged from last month but up 1 percent from 1996. The November 1 Corn Objective Yield data indicate an ear count slightly below 1996, but above the five-year average for the seven objective yield States (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Ohio, and Wisconsin). The record level ears per acre was set in 1996. As of November 2, 75 percent of the acreage in the 17 major States was harvested. This compares with 62 percent for 1996 and 64 percent for the five-year average. In Iowa, forecasted ear population is at a record high. Eighty-four percent of the corn was harvested compared to 58 percent in 1996 and the average of 63 percent. Forecasted ear counts in Ohio are above last year but slightly below the five- year average. As of November 2, 41 percent of the corn was harvested, compared to 33 percent a year ago and the five-year average of 50 percent. In Illinois, Nebraska and Wisconsin, the forecasted ear population is below last year but above the five-year average. In Illinois, 89 percent of the corn was harvested as of November 2, compared to 66 percent in 1996 and the average of 75 percent. Sixty-six percent of the corn was harvested in Nebraska, compared to 67 percent last year and the average of 62 percent. Heavy snow in parts of Nebraska slowed the harvest and caused some stalk breakage and lodging. In Wisconsin, 41 percent was harvested, ahead of the 34 percent for 1996 but behind the average of 45 percent. Indiana and Minnesota ear populations are below 1996 and below the five-year average. As of November 2, 59 percent of the corn was harvested in Indiana, compared to 45 percent last year and the five-year average of 60 percent. Corn borer and western corn rootworm were a problem in some Indiana fields this year. In Minnesota, 90 percent was harvested, ahead of last year's 74 percent and the average of 60 percent. Sorghum for Grain: The final production forecast for the 1997 crop is 659 million bushels, 1 percent lower than the October forecast and 18 percent below 1996. The U.S. yield is forecast at 69.2 bushels per acre, down 0.7 bushels from last month but 1.7 bushels above 1996. Area harvested and to be harvested was unchanged from October, at 9.51 million acres, down 20 percent from the previous year. South Dakota and Illinois increased their yield forecasts from October, up ten and four bushels per acre, respectively. Texas, Oklahoma, New Mexico, and Louisiana showed small declines in yield. As of November 2, 76 percent of the crop in the 12 major States had been harvested, progressing at the same rate as the five-year average. A major snow storm the last week of October slowed harvest progress in Colorado, Kansas and Nebraska. The extent of crop damage due to the heavy snow is expected to be minimal. Rice: Production for 1997 is forecast at 180 million cwt, up 5 percent from a year ago. If realized, this would be the third highest production on record. The average yield is forecast at 5,926 pounds per acre, up 19 pounds from October 1 but down 195 pounds from a year ago. Area for harvest, estimated at 3.04 million acres, is unchanged from October 1 but 9 percent above last year. Yields in Louisiana increased from last month. The ratoon harvesting went well, which attributed to the increase in yield. In Texas, the yield decreased from last month. The ratoon crop in Texas will be limited as a result of the late planted 1997 crop. Yields in Arkansas, California, Mississippi, and Missouri remained unchanged from October. Fall Potatoes: Production of fall potatoes for 1997 is forecast at 418 million cwt, down 8 percent from last year but 4 percent above 1995. Area harvested, at 1.16 million acres, is down 7 percent from last year. The average yield is projected at 360 cwt per acre, down 4 cwt from last year but 26 cwt above two years ago. Planting started late this year but caught up with warm June weather and finished on time. Heavy rains flooded many fields in North Central States and hurt yields. Harvest started late, but good weather in October allowed an early and uneventful finish. Total potato production from all four seasons is 459 million cwt in 1997, down 8 percent from last year but 4 percent above 1995. Five Eastern States produced 31.8 million cwt of fall potatoes in 1997, down 7 percent from last year but 6 percent above two years ago. Area for harvest totaled 118,500 acres, down 6 percent from last year. The average yield of 268 cwt per acre lost 5 cwt from a year ago. A cool, wet spring delayed early planting. Dry weather in July and August stunted growth and reduced sizing. Production in Maine fell 9 percent from a year ago. New York's production increased 7 percent, while Pennsylvania's dropped 24 percent. Production in Massachusetts was down slightly, but Rhode Island gained 8 percent. Eight Central States' production is forecast at 96.4 million cwt this year, down 10 percent from last year but up 1 percent from 1995. Harvested area totaled 338,400 acres, down 8 percent from last year. The average yield of 285 cwt per acre slipped 7 cwt from last year. Heavy summer rains flooded out many fields in North Dakota and Minnesota and reduced yields. The Wisconsin crop was also down from last year. Michigan's production rebounded 5 percent after last year's rain damaged crop. Sharply higher acreage and a good growing season increased Nebraska's potato output by 73 percent. Indiana, Ohio, and South Dakota registered smaller crops than last year. Ten Western States produced 289 million cwt in 1997, down 7 percent from last year but 4 percent above two years ago. Acreage harvested, at 704,400 acres, was off 7 percent, while the average yield of 411 cwt per acre was down 3 cwt from a year ago. Harvest started late as processors worked to clean up potatoes from the huge 1996 crop. Weather was generally good, and digging finished up early. Production is down in all of the larger Western States primarily because of acreage cuts. Production in Idaho is down 5 percent from last year, Washington is off 7 percent, and Colorado and Oregon both dropped 13 percent. Idaho and Washington are expecting record high yields. California's production is down 9 percent, Nevada slipped 4 percent, Utah dropped 22 percent, and Wyoming fell 38 percent. Montana and New Mexico were the only Western States with larger crops than last year. Soybeans: Acreage to be harvested is forecast at 69.8 million acres, unchanged from last month and 10 percent above last year. As of the week ending November 2, the soybean harvest was nearing completion across the Corn Belt. Snow storms and melting snow slowed harvest activities later in the week. Harvest activity in the Southeast and Atlantic states was hampered by heavy rainfall. In the Major producing states, harvest activity progressed well ahead of last year. As of November 2, 89 percent of the soybean crop was harvested, 9 points ahead of last year and 4 points ahead of the five year average. In Minnesota and Iowa, harvest was virtually complete as of November 2. Minnesota farmers completed harvest about the same as last year but ahead of the five-year average. In Iowa, harvest was completed ahead of last year and the five-year average. The harvest in Indiana and Ohio was running well ahead of last year's late maturing crop. Indiana farmers harvested 96 percent of the crop by November 2, well ahead of last year and the five-year average. In Ohio, 95 percent of the harvest was complete. The Missouri harvest was 82 percent complete by November 2, compared to 69 percent last year and a five-year average of 78 percent. The harvest in Nebraska at 92 percent complete, lagged well behind last year and the five-year average. In the Southeast, the harvest lagged behind last year in North Carolina, Georgia, and South Carolina. The harvest progressed ahead of last year in other southeastern states. The November 1 Objective Yield Survey indicated pod counts above the 1996 final in Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Minnesota, and Ohio. The pod count in Arkansas is at a record high. Indicated pod counts from the survey are below the 1996 final for Iowa, Missouri, and Nebraska. Peanuts: Production is forecast at 3.50 billion pounds, down slightly from the October 1 forecast and down 4 percent from last year. Harvested area, at 1.38 million acres, is 4,500 acres above 1996. Yields are expected to average 2,528 pounds per acre, down 11 pounds from last month and 125 pounds below 1996. Production in the Southeastern States (Alabama, Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina) is expected to total 2.00 billion pounds, unchanged from October 1 but 7 percent below the 1996 crop. The yield for the 4-State area is expected to average 2,499 pounds per acre, 137 pounds below last year. Open weather prevailed for most of October but heavy rains during the last week slowed harvest activity. In early November, harvest neared completion for most States in this region, with Alabama at 96 percent harvested and Georgia at 98 percent. Virginia-North Carolina production is forecast at 514 million pounds, up slightly from last month, but 12 percent below last year. Yield per acre, at 2,638 pounds, is 281 pounds below last year's average. Virginia's harvest neared completion at 98 percent in early November and the North Carolina harvest was only 78 percent complete, as rains hampered the harvesting. The North Carolina crop suffered from below normal temperatures early in the season, followed by dry weather. The Southwest peanut crop (New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas) is expected to total 989 million pounds, down 2 percent from last month, but up 7 percent from last year. Yields are expected to average 2,533 pounds per acre, down 11 pounds from last year. On November 2, harvest was 62 percent complete in Texas, one point behind last year's progress. Cotton: Upland cotton harvested acreage, at 13.2 million acres, is unchanged from last month, but is up 5 percent from last year. American-Pima harvested acres also remain unchanged from October, at 249,000 acres, and represents a 3 percent decrease from 1996. Cotton fields in the Texas Plains were being sprayed in preparation for harvest. Rainfall in the Plains and North Central delayed harvest during the month, and the later crop along the Upper Coast showed quality damage from heavy rains during the season. Several locations in the Plains and North Central recorded the first frost during late October, which increased the defoliation. Harvest progress in early November, at 45 percent, was 2 points behind the 5-year average. Objective yield data indicate Texas' large boll counts are the second highest since 1987 and boll weights rank sixth. The Delta States (Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, and Tennessee) crop remained in mostly fair to good condition during October. In mid-October, about one-fourth of Mississippi's crop was rated in excellent condition, while Arkansas had 17 percent in excellent condition. Harvest exceeded the 5-year average pace in Louisiana and Mississippi in early November. Louisiana had 98 percent of the crop harvested, 6 points ahead of the 5-year average, and Mississippi producers were 85 percent complete, 1 point above average. Harvest in the other States was about three-fourths finished, slightly behind their normal pace. Compared to the previous 10 years, large boll counts ranked third highest in Arkansas and highest in Mississippi but ranked the third lowest in Louisiana. Boll weights ranked eighth in Arkansas, tenth in Louisiana, and sixth in Mississippi, during this same period. In early November,Arizona's harvest progress was 4 percent behind normal, at 64 percent, as rains during the previous month slowed this activity. California's harvest in the southern areas was slightly delayed from the rainfall associated with tropical storm Nora, but harvest was 9 percent ahead of the normal harvest pace of 66 percent. Harvest was completed in the Imperial and Sacramento Valleys and progressed normally in the San Joaquin Valley. Some producers in Kings County were making a second pick. Data from the objective yield survey show California's large boll counts as the lowest and boll weights fourth highest since 1987. In the Southeastern States (Alabama, Georgia, North Carolina, and South Carolina) late October rains delayed harvest in all States. North Carolina showed 34 percent of the acreage harvested in early November, 21 points behind average, and Georgia had 47 percent of the acreage harvested, compared to the average of 58 percent. South Carolina producers also lagged the average harvest progress by 13 points at 41 percent complete. American-Pima production is forecast at 548,000 bales, up 2,000 bales from October, and up 4 percent from last year's output. Yield is indicated at 1,056 pounds per harvested acre, up 65 pounds from last year. Arizona producers had harvested 64 percent of the acreage at the beginning of November. Harvest was nearly complete in the western area, more than one-half was picked in the central area, and good progress was occurring in the east. In California, harvest began in early October in the southern San Joaquin Valley and progressed north during the month. Late October rains didn't significantly affect yield potential or quality. In the Texas Wintergarden area harvest is complete and is active in the Trans Pecos area. All cotton ginnings totaled 8,114,800 running bales prior to November 1, compared with 8,868,700 running bales ginned to the same date last year and 8,430,350 running bales in 1995. Tobacco: U.S. all tobacco production for 1997 is forecast at 1.65 billion pounds, up 8 percent from 1996. Harvested acres are estimated at 795,250 acres, 9 percent above last year. Yields for 1997 are expected to average 2,069 pounds per acre, 3 pounds below last month's forecast and 2 pounds below the average for 1996. Flue-cured production is expected to total 993 million pounds, up 1 percent from last month's forecast and 9 percent above a year ago. Average yield expectations increased from a month ago in all flue-cured producing states except South Carolina where yields remained unchanged. The projected average yield, at 2,200 pounds per acre, increased 18 pounds from October 1 and is 49 pounds above last year's average yield. Burley production is forecast at 563 million pounds, 2 percent below October 1 projections but 8 percent above 1996. Average yield, at 1,868 pounds per acre, decreased 35 pounds from a month ago and is 72 pounds below the 1996 average yield. Kentucky burley stripping has advanced slowly this fall due to dry weather. As of November 2, 19 percent was stripped and was rated in mostly good condition. Sugarbeets: Production for the U.S. is expected to total 30 million tons in 1997, an increase of 12 percent from 1996 and up 1 percent from the October forecast. Area for harvest, at 1.43 million acres, is up 8 percent from last year but down fractionally from last month. The average yield, at 21.0 tons per acre, is up 0.8 tons from 1996 and up 0.3 tons from October. In the Red River Valley, sugarbeet harvest progressed behind the normal in September due to unseasonably warm temperatures. However, lifting caught up to the normal pace by the end of October before finishing in early November. Harvest in Idaho progressed normally with no major problems reported. Michigan's sugarbeet yield was the best in several years as harvest conditions were excellent. Producers in California enjoyed mostly favorable growing conditions during 1997, with no major disease or pest problems to affect the crop. In Colorado and Nebraska, yield forecasts were down from October as producers realized lower yields than were earlier expected. Sugarcane: U.S. sugarcane production for sugar and seed in 1997 is expected to total 29.7 million tons, up 1 percent from 1996 but virtually unchanged from October. The expected area for harvest, at 914,500 acres, is 3 percent above last year but unchanged from October. The forecasted yield, at 32.5 tons per acre, is 0.6 tons below 1996 but unchanged from October. Sugarcane yield in Louisiana was expected to be a little lower than last year's record yield. Insect pressure from the sugarcane borer was light to moderate. The crop was a little short because of a dry spell during August and September. Harvest was running slightly ahead of schedule. The first Florida sugarcane mill opened October 15 and the last mill was expected to open November 5. There have been no hurricanes this season so the cane is standing straight. In Hawaii, with the exception of mid-month showers, October weather was mostly dry in the major growing areas and harvest continued at an active pace. In Texas, yields were close to expectations, but sucrose content was much lower than expected. Florida Citrus: October was mild and dry for most of Florida's citrus belt. There were a few rains early in the month, but dry conditions prevailed until the end of the month when severe thunderstorms hit the region. No damage to citrus was reported. The additional moisture was quite beneficial to citrus. The early maturing citrus varieties such as Navel, Hamlin, and Ambersweet oranges, Fallglo and Robinson early tangerines, K-Early citrus fruit, Satsumas, and white and colored grapefruit were packed and shipped at a rapid rate during October. Some packing house eliminations were dumped and destroyed because the processors did not want the early fruit. By the end of October, many of the processors were open and receiving grove run oranges for juice. Citrus grove caretakers have been relatively inactive with limited cutting of cover crops, spraying, and minimal fertilizing. Texas Citrus: Harvest was delayed in October due to rain in the Rio Grande Valley. The moisture was beneficial, as many areas were dry and short on irrigation water. Demand for fruit was slow during the month but was expected to increase rapidly as gift and fund-raising sales picked up. Quality of early picked fruit has been very good. Although sizes are smaller, pack-out rates are better than a year ago. With the rainfall and slightly cooler temperatures, sizes are expected to increase as the season progresses. Hazelnuts: The hazelnut production forecast is 41,000 tons (in-shell basis), up 3 percent from October's forecast and more than double last year's production. The bulk of the expected production, 40,800 tons, will originate in Oregon with the balance coming from Washington state. Harvest is nearly complete. Western Oregon had many dry days in the latter half of October that allowed completion of harvest work in most orchards. Papayas: Hawaii fresh papaya production is estimated at 3.9 million pounds for October, 44 percent more than September and 12 percent more than a year ago. October weather conditions were variable with a mix of sunshine and rain. Papaya ringspot virus continued to depress yields and shorten the life of infected fields. Area devoted to papaya production totaled 3,135 acres, 2 percent higher than September but 12 percent lower than October 1996. Harvested area, totaling 1,955 acres, was unchanged from last month but 28 percent more than a year ago. California Fruits and Nuts: Harvest of several fruit and nut crops was active during October. Picking of raisin grapes ended, but table and wine grape harvesting continued throughout the month. The apple harvest was active with Fuji and Granny Smith the primary varieties. Kiwifruit harvest gained momentum with larger sizes reported. Other crops picked during October were Asian pears, olives, persimmons, pomegranates, pistachios, and walnuts. Stone fruit orchards were pruned, fertilized, cultivated, and irrigated. California Citrus: The 1996-97 crop year's Valencia orange harvest was winding down as the new crop Navel orange harvest was beginning. Grapefruit, lemons, and tangerines were also picked. Good quality was reported. Reliability of November 1 Crop Production Forecasts Survey Procedures: Objective yield and farm operator surveys were conducted between October 24 and November 4 to gather information on expected yield as of November 1. The objective yield surveys for corn, soybeans, and cotton were conducted in the major producing States that usually account for about 75 percent of the U.S. production. Randomly selected plots were revisited to make current counts. The items counted within the selected plots depend on the crop and the maturity of that crop. In all cases, number of plants are recorded along with other measurements that provide information to forecast the number of ears, pods, or bolls and their weight. The counts are used with similar data from previous years to develop a projected biological yield. The five-year average harvesting loss is subtracted to obtain a net yield. The plots are revisited each month until crop maturity when the fruit is harvested and weighed. After the farm operator has harvested the sample field, another plot is sampled to obtain current year harvesting loss. The farm operator survey was conducted primarily by telephone with some use of mail and personal interviewers. Approximately 11,000 producers were interviewed during the survey period and asked questions about probable yield. Estimating Procedures: National and State level objective yield and grower reported survey estimates were reviewed for errors, reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. The survey data were also reviewed considering weather patterns and crop progress compared to previous month and previous years. Each State Statistical Office submits their analysis of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State analysis to prepare the published November 1 forecast. Revision Policy: The November 1 production forecast will not be revised; instead, a new forecast will be made each month throughout the growing season. At the end of the marketing year administrative records and a balance sheet are utilized using carryover stocks, production, exports, processing, feeding, and ending stocks. Revisions are then made if data relationships warrant changes. Harvested acres may be revised any time a production forecast is made if there is strong evidence that the intended harvested area has changed since the last estimate. Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the November 1 production forecasts, the "Root Mean Square Error", a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the November 1 production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of squared percentage deviations for the 1977-1996 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error". Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent years. For example, the "Root Mean Square Error" for the November 1 corn for grain production forecast is 2.3 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current production forecast of 9.36 billion bushels will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 2.3 percent or approximately 215 million bushels. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 4.0 percent or approximately 374 million bushels. Also, shown in the following table is a 10-year record for selected crops of the differences between the November 1 forecast and the final estimates. Using corn again as an example, changes between the November 1 forecast and the final estimate during the past 10 years have averaged 80 million bushels, ranging from 0 million to 258 million bushels. The November 1 forecast has been below the final estimate 5 times, above 4 times and unchanged for one time. This does not imply that the November 1 corn forecast this year is likely to understate or overstate final production. For most crops, the number of years the forecasts have been below or above the final estimate is about equally distributed. Reliability of November 1 Crop Production Forecasts ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ :Root Mean Square Error:: 10-year Record of :----------------------:: Differences Between Forecast : :90% Confidence:: and Final Estimate Crop and : : Level ::------------------------------- Unit :Percent:--------------:: Quantity :No. of Years : : : ::------------------------------- : :Percent: Quant:: : :Below:Above : : : :: Avg:Small:Large:Final:Final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Mil ::----- Mil ----- : :: Corn for Grain Bu: 2.3 4.0 374 :: 80 0 258 5 4 Sorghum for Grain Bu: 4.6 8.0 53 :: 21 3 86 4 6 Rice Cwt: 2.7 4.6 8 :: 2.7 .2 11.5 6 4 Soybeans for : :: Beans Bu: 2.8 4.9 134 :: 21 6 37 6 3 Cotton Bales 1/: 2.8 4.8 905 ::436 14 937 7 3 Fall Potatoes Cwt : 2.1 3.7 15 :: 6 1 16 10 0 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Quantity is in thousands of bales. Index Page Table Narrative Corn Cropping Practices............................... A-22 Corn for Grain........................................ A-10 B- 4 Corn for Grain Row Width.............................. A-24 Cotton................................................ A-16 B- 7 Cotton Cumulative Boll Counts......................... A-27 Cottonseed............................................ A-15 Crop Maps............................................. B- 1 Crop Summary.......................................... A- 3 Hazelnuts............................................. A-21 B- 9 Papayas............................................... A-21 B- 9 Peanuts............................................... A-15 B- 6 Potatoes.............................................. A-13 B- 5 Potatoes, Varieties Grown............................. A-28 Reliability Statement................................. B-10 Rice.................................................. A-12 B- 5 Sorghum for Grain..................................... A-11 B- 5 Soybeans for Beans.................................... A-14 B- 6 Soybeans, Row Spacing................................. A-25 Sugarbeets............................................ A-20 B- 8 Sugarcane for Sugar and Seed.......................... A-20 B- 8 Tobacco............................................... A-17 B- 8 Report Features The next "Crop Production" report will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET on December 11, 1997. Texas grapefruit production is no longer forecasted on November 1. The next Texas grapefruit forecast will be made for December 1 and released in the December 11, 1997 "Crop Production" report along with the other state's forecasts of citrus fruit production. Since the only citrus forecast in November in the past was Texas' grapefruit, the Citrus Fruit table will not be published this month. Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. C. Ray Halley, Chief (202) 720-2127 Field Crops Section Bill Dowdy, Head (202) 720-3843 Kevin Barnes - Soybeans, Minor Oilseeds (202) 720-7369 Rhonda Brandt- Sugar Crops, Weekly Crop Weather, Oats (202) 720-7621 Dan Kerestes - Corn (202) 720-9526 Roger Latham - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings (202) 720-5944 Joel Moore - Barley, Hay, Sorghum (202) 690-3234 Barbara Rater - Peanuts, Rice (202) 720-7688 Vaughn Siegenthaler - Wheat, Rye (202) 720-8068 Fruit, Vegetable & Special Crops Section Vince Matthews, Head (202) 720-3843 Arvin Budge - Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes (202) 720-4285 Dave DeWalt - Citrus, Tropical Fruits (202) 720-5412 Howard Hill - Cherries, Berries, Prunes, Plums, Cranberries, Grapes, Maple Syrup (202) 720-7235 Dave Mueller - Fresh and Processing Vegetables, Onions (202) 720-2157 Dave Ranek - Nuts, Floriculture (202) 720-4215 Linda Simpson - Noncitrus Fruits, Mint, Dry Beans & Peas, Mushrooms, Hops (202) 690-0270 Debbie Williams - Apples, Strawberries, Tobacco (202) 720-4288 The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination in its programs on the basis of race, color, national origin, sex, religion, age, disability, political beliefs, and marital or familial status. 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USDA Announces Data Users Meeting Embassy Suites (near KCI Airport) Kansas City, Missouri January 7, 1998 The National Agricultural Statistics Service will be organizing an open forum for Data Users. The purpose will be to provide updates on pending changes in the USDA statistical and information programs including the status of the 1997 Census of Agriculture, and to seek comments and input from data users. Other agencies to be represented will include the Agricultural Marketing Service, the Economic Research Service, the Foreign Agricultural Service, and the World Agricultural Outlook Board. For registration details NASS home page: http://www.usda.gov/nass/ Bob Milton (NASS) at (202) 720-3570 rmilton@nass.usda.gov USDA Announces Agricultural Outlook Forum 98 February 23 and 24, 1998 Washington, D.C. Presented by the U.S. Department of Agriculture Survey the New Frontiers. Survey the frontiers of agriculture at USDA's seventy-fourth outlook forum. Catch the latest commodity prospects for 1998 and beyond and receive new long-term projections to the year 2007. Hear noted experts and farm leaders tackle front line issues: managing risk, selling bio-engineered products, ensuring food safety, marketing organic foods, honing export strategies, and more. Act Now To Attend. For program and registration details check the Forum home page, call (202) 720-3050, or dial (202) 694-5700 from your fax machine handset and retrieve document 66666. Call (202) 401-9421 to register. Ag Forum home page: http://www.usda.gov/oce/waob/agforum.htm e-mail: agforum@oce.usda.gov