Crop Production National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released July 10, 1998, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Crop Production" call at (202) 720-2127, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. Forecasts refer to July 1, 1998. Winter Wheat Production up 9 Percent from June Winter wheat production is forecast at 1.90 billion bushels, up 9 percent from last month and 1 percent higher than 1997. The U.S. yield is forecast at a record high 46.6 bushels per acre. This is up 3.7 bushels from June 1. Grain area was not changed from last month. Hard Red Winter wheat production is up 15 percent from June due to dramatically higher yields, particularly in the southern Great Plains. Yields in Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas are at record levels. Collectively, the Objective Yield data for Hard Red Winter wheat are forecasting record average head weights coupled with well above average head counts. Soft Red Winter, at 451 million bushels, is down from a month ago. White Winter production is up from last month due to improved yield prospects in Oregon and Washington. Other spring wheat production is forecast at 498 million bushels, down 11 percent from 1997. A 20 percent drop in grain area is the main cause of the decline. The U.S. yield is forecast at 33.5 bushels per acre, up 3.6 bushels per acre from last year. Hard Red Spring production is down 11 percent to 445 million bushels. White Spring production is down about 8 percent. Durum wheat production is forecast at 126 million bushels, up 46 percent from 1997. Based on July 1 conditions, the U.S. yield is forecast at 35.1 bushels per acre, up 7.4 bushels per acre from last year. This yield increase, along with a 15 percent increase in harvested acres, results in the largest crop since 1982. All wheat production is placed at 2.52 billion bushels, slightly less than 1997, but 10 percent more than in 1996. Based on July 1 conditions, the U.S. yield is forecast at 42.6 bushels per acre. This is up 2.9 bushels from a year ago to a new record high yield. Cr Pr 2-2 (7-98)a All oranges production for the 1997-98 season is forecast at a record large 13.9 million tons, down 1 percent from the June 1 forecast but up 9 percent from last season's previous record large production of 12.7 million tons. Florida's production forecast is 244 million boxes (11.0 million tons), down 2 percent from June 1 but 8 percent above last season. The Valencia forecast is reduced to 104 million boxes (4.68 million tons), 4 percent less than last month but up 13 percent from a year ago. Harvest is nearly complete with the last major processor scheduled to close soon. Florida's early-midseason forecast is final at 140 million boxes (6.30 million tons), the same as the previous forecast and 4 percent above last year's utilized production. The all orange forecast for California is 74.0 million boxes (2.78 million tons), unchanged from the previous forecast in April but up 16 percent from the 1996-97 season. Harvest of the navel orange crop is complete. Good quality was reported with large sized fruit. Valencia quality has been reported as good to excellent but harvest has slowed due to normal competition from stone fruits harvested at this time of year. Approximately one-third of the Valencia crop has been picked. Florida frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) yield for the 1997-98 season is projected at 1.58 gallons per box (42.0 degrees Brix), the same as last month. The forecast projects the final yield as reported by the Florida Citrus Processors Association. The Valencia projection remains at 1.72 gallons per box, a record high yield. The early and midseason portion is final at 1.49 gallons per box. This report was approved on July 10, 1998. Acting Secretary of Agricultural Statistics Board Agriculture Chairperson Keith J. Collins Rich Allen Contents Page Tables Narratives Report Highlights .......................................... -- 1 Oats ....................................................... 4 30 Barley ..................................................... 5 31 Wheat, All ................................................. 6 -- Wheat, Winter .............................................. 7 31 Wheat, Durum ............................................... 8 31 Wheat, Other Spring ........................................ 8 32 Wheat, Head Population ..................................... 9 -- Wheat, by Class ............................................ 10 -- Tobacco, by Class .......................................... 10 32 Peaches .................................................... 11 32 Grapes ..................................................... 12 33 Apricots ................................................... 12 33 Walnuts .................................................... 12 34 Almonds .................................................... 12 34 Citrus Fruits .............................................. 13 35 Papayas .................................................... 14 35 Potatoes ................................................... 15 35 Crop Summary (Domestic Units) Area Planted and Harvested ............................ 19 -- Yield and Production .................................. 20 -- Fruits and Nuts Production (Domestic Units) ................ 21 -- Crop Summary (Metric Units) Area Planted and Harvested ............................ 22 -- Yield and Production .................................. 23 -- Fruits and Nuts Production (Metric Units) .................. 24 -- Crop Moisture Maps ......................................... 25 June Weather Summary ....................................... -- 28 General Crop Comments ...................................... -- 30 Reliability ................................................ -- 37 Report Features ............................................ -- 38 Oats: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 1996-97 and Forecasted July 1, 1998 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production State:------------------------------------------------------------------------ : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 : 1996 : 1997 : 1998 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres -- Bushels -- ------- 1,000 Bushels ------- : AL : 23 17 50.0 40.0 900 1,150 680 AR : 17 18 75.0 90.0 1,800 1,275 1,620 CA : 35 30 70.0 75.0 2,250 2,450 2,250 CO : 28 40 68.0 67.0 1,820 1,904 2,680 GA : 40 30 56.0 58.0 2,240 2,240 1,740 ID : 20 30 75.0 80.0 1,875 1,500 2,400 IL : 75 70 74.0 68.0 4,620 5,550 4,760 IN : 35 30 60.0 50.0 1,600 2,100 1,500 IA : 245 210 73.0 68.0 12,920 17,885 14,280 KS : 80 70 64.0 58.0 4,160 5,120 4,060 ME : 25 23 70.0 70.0 2,100 1,750 1,610 MD : 11 7 60.0 50.0 434 660 350 MI : 90 105 61.0 60.0 3,600 5,490 6,300 MN : 310 320 58.0 54.0 15,120 17,980 17,280 MO : 27 13 62.0 45.0 1,537 1,674 585 MT : 70 80 55.0 56.0 2,000 3,850 4,480 NE : 70 85 65.0 71.0 7,455 4,550 6,035 NY : 110 105 70.0 62.0 4,275 7,700 6,510 NC : 25 20 68.0 62.0 1,200 1,700 1,240 ND : 400 480 45.0 64.0 19,000 18,000 30,720 OH : 100 90 78.0 66.0 5,130 7,800 5,940 OK : 45 30 46.0 42.0 648 2,070 1,260 OR : 30 30 95.0 95.0 3,395 2,850 2,850 PA : 160 160 59.0 60.0 7,560 9,440 9,600 SC : 30 25 60.0 50.0 1,620 1,800 1,250 SD : 310 350 55.0 62.0 21,600 17,050 21,700 TX : 110 140 52.0 53.0 3,400 5,720 7,420 UT : 9 9 74.0 74.0 648 666 666 WA : 17 15 80.0 85.0 1,120 1,360 1,275 WV : 4 4 50.0 50.0 150 200 200 WI : 330 280 63.0 67.0 17,400 20,790 18,760 WY : 30 20 61.0 60.0 1,696 1,830 1,200 : US : 2,911 2,936 60.5 62.4 155,273 176,104 183,201 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Barley: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 1996-97 and Forecasted July 1, 1998 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production State:------------------------------------------------------------------------ : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 : 1996 : 1997 : 1998 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres -- Bushels -- ------ 1,000 Bushels ------- : AZ : 67 53 102.0 120.0 5,670 6,834 6,360 CA : 180 140 55.0 60.0 12,000 9,900 8,400 CO : 90 85 112.0 108.0 9,936 10,080 9,180 DE : 35 30 89.0 67.0 1,564 3,115 2,010 ID : 760 760 79.0 80.0 53,290 60,040 60,800 KS : 8 9 40.0 45.0 363 320 405 KY : 14 8 75.0 63.0 1,480 1,050 504 MD : 50 48 80.0 68.0 2,989 4,000 3,264 MI : 24 28 60.0 52.0 1,200 1,440 1,456 MN : 540 450 51.0 53.0 33,280 27,540 23,850 MT : 1,200 1,300 53.0 50.0 51,600 63,600 65,000 NE : 8 8 51.0 46.0 901 408 368 NV : 4 4 105.0 95.0 475 420 380 NJ : 4 4 75.0 52.0 180 300 208 NC : 20 20 70.0 63.0 1,300 1,400 1,260 ND : 2,250 1,930 45.0 58.0 143,000 101,250 111,940 OK : 8 5 42.0 45.0 69 336 225 OR : 120 140 69.0 75.0 9,600 8,280 10,500 PA : 75 75 68.0 71.0 5,025 5,100 5,325 SC : 3 1 60.0 52.0 200 180 52 SD : 130 125 38.0 50.0 6,380 4,940 6,250 TX : 5 5 47.0 35.0 374 235 175 UT : 95 85 86.0 89.0 8,200 8,170 7,565 VA : 65 75 85.0 60.0 5,100 5,525 4,500 WA : 490 520 76.0 65.0 27,280 37,240 33,800 WI : 65 65 55.0 55.0 3,975 3,575 3,575 WY : 115 105 80.0 82.0 10,320 9,200 8,610 : US : 6,425 6,078 58.3 61.9 395,751 374,478 375,962 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- All Wheat: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 1996-97 and Forecasted July 1, 1998 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production State:------------------------------------------------------------------------ : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 : 1996 : 1997 : 1998 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -- 1,000 Acres -- --- Bushels --- ------ 1,000 Bushels ------- : AL : 100 90 42.0 45.0 3,520 4,200 4,050 AZ : 98 152 89.5 99.5 16,090 8,775 15,120 AR : 820 900 48.0 51.0 66,960 39,360 45,900 CA : 544 545 80.3 77.8 51,750 43,680 42,425 CO : 2,900 2,798 32.7 37.7 75,500 94,700 105,398 DE : 73 73 73.0 57.0 4,134 5,329 4,161 FL : 15 13 39.0 41.0 380 585 533 GA : 360 240 44.0 43.0 16,800 15,840 10,320 ID : 1,440 1,290 79.2 80.8 119,200 114,060 104,220 IL : 1,150 1,200 61.0 49.0 41,800 70,150 58,800 IN : 660 650 58.0 58.0 27,360 38,280 37,700 IA : 27 38 42.0 40.0 1,575 1,134 1,520 KS : 11,000 10,100 46.0 49.0 255,200 506,000 494,900 KY : 530 550 54.0 47.0 28,090 28,620 25,850 LA : 115 90 37.0 45.0 5,590 4,255 4,050 MD : 215 215 68.0 55.0 11,804 14,620 11,825 MI : 540 570 62.0 54.0 23,940 33,480 30,780 MN : 2,465 1,780 32.0 32.9 106,582 78,890 58,585 MS : 175 140 43.0 44.0 11,270 7,525 6,160 MO : 1,040 1,230 55.0 46.0 48,750 57,200 56,580 MT : 5,930 5,190 31.3 30.3 176,960 185,630 157,500 NE : 1,900 1,830 37.0 43.0 73,500 70,300 78,690 NV : 16 14 98.4 100.0 1,650 1,575 1,400 NJ : 34 45 60.0 48.0 1,748 2,040 2,160 NM : 285 265 35.0 28.0 4,070 9,975 7,420 NY : 135 135 56.0 54.0 6,450 7,560 7,290 NC : 670 680 52.0 42.0 25,960 34,840 28,560 ND : 11,025 9,465 24.3 30.4 395,130 267,695 287,880 OH : 1,090 1,160 63.0 64.0 51,870 68,670 74,240 OK : 5,400 5,400 33.0 38.0 93,100 178,200 205,200 OR : 970 905 65.4 67.0 67,605 63,430 60,605 PA : 175 190 52.0 53.0 9,120 9,100 10,070 SC : 300 240 50.0 32.0 12,150 15,000 7,680 SD : 3,469 3,289 28.6 34.1 139,270 99,213 112,234 TN : 370 370 45.0 41.0 17,600 16,650 15,170 TX : 4,100 4,000 29.0 36.0 75,400 118,900 144,000 UT : 189 177 48.5 50.8 7,760 9,174 8,985 VA : 250 240 68.0 50.0 14,575 17,000 12,000 WA : 2,595 2,565 64.8 65.2 182,670 168,080 167,220 WV : 9 9 54.0 55.0 495 486 495 WI : 142 142 56.9 54.1 5,725 8,075 7,677 WY : 256 236 32.3 30.0 6,030 8,276 7,091 : US : 63,577 59,211 39.7 42.6 2,285,133 2,526,552 2,522,444 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Winter Wheat: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 1997 and Forecasted July 1, 1998 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production :------------------------------------------------------------------------ State: : : : 1998 : : : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : Jun 1 : Jul 1 : 1997 : 1998 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres ------- Bushels ------- -- 1,000 Bushels -- : AL : 100 90 42.0 45.0 45.0 4,200 4,050 AZ : 9 8 85.0 80.0 90.0 765 720 AR : 820 900 48.0 51.0 51.0 39,360 45,900 CA : 400 370 75.0 65.0 65.0 30,000 24,050 CO : 2,850 2,750 32.0 36.0 37.0 91,200 101,750 DE : 73 73 73.0 65.0 57.0 5,329 4,161 FL : 15 13 39.0 41.0 41.0 585 533 GA : 360 240 44.0 45.0 43.0 15,840 10,320 ID : 870 770 80.0 82.0 82.0 69,600 63,140 IL : 1,150 1,200 61.0 53.0 49.0 70,150 58,800 IN : 660 650 58.0 60.0 58.0 38,280 37,700 IA : 27 38 42.0 42.0 40.0 1,134 1,520 KS : 11,000 10,100 46.0 39.0 49.0 506,000 494,900 KY : 530 550 54.0 50.0 47.0 28,620 25,850 LA : 115 90 37.0 34.0 45.0 4,255 4,050 MD : 215 215 68.0 63.0 55.0 14,620 11,825 MI : 540 570 62.0 55.0 54.0 33,480 30,780 MN : 60 55 32.0 32.0 30.0 1,920 1,650 MS : 175 140 43.0 42.0 44.0 7,525 6,160 MO : 1,040 1,230 55.0 46.0 46.0 57,200 56,580 MT : 1,450 1,250 39.0 31.0 36.0 56,550 45,000 NE : 1,900 1,830 37.0 39.0 43.0 70,300 78,690 NV : 11 6 100.0 100.0 100.0 1,100 600 NJ : 34 45 60.0 54.0 48.0 2,040 2,160 NM : 285 265 35.0 27.0 28.0 9,975 7,420 NY : 135 135 56.0 58.0 54.0 7,560 7,290 NC : 670 680 52.0 45.0 42.0 34,840 28,560 ND : 55 65 21.0 30.0 32.0 1,155 2,080 OH : 1,090 1,160 63.0 60.0 64.0 68,670 74,240 OK : 5,400 5,400 33.0 34.0 38.0 178,200 205,200 OR : 840 790 67.0 66.0 69.0 56,280 54,510 PA : 175 190 52.0 53.0 53.0 9,100 10,070 SC : 300 240 50.0 38.0 32.0 15,000 7,680 SD : 1,050 1,420 30.0 35.0 37.0 31,500 52,540 TN : 370 370 45.0 41.0 41.0 16,650 15,170 TX : 4,100 4,000 29.0 33.0 36.0 118,900 144,000 UT : 160 150 49.0 50.0 50.0 7,840 7,500 VA : 250 240 68.0 60.0 50.0 17,000 12,000 WA : 2,150 2,100 67.0 67.0 69.0 144,050 144,900 WV : 9 9 54.0 55.0 55.0 486 495 WI : 135 135 58.0 55.0 55.0 7,830 7,425 WY : 235 225 32.0 30.0 30.0 7,520 6,750 : US : 41,813 40,757 45.0 42.9 46.6 1,882,609 1,898,719 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Durum Wheat: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 1997 and Forecasted July 1, 1998 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production :------------------------------------------------------------------------ State: : : : 1998 : : : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : Jun 1 : Jul 1 : 1997 : 1998 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres ------- Bushels ------- -- 1,000 Bushels -- : AZ : 89 144 90.0 92.0 100.0 8,010 14,400 CA : 144 175 95.0 100.0 105.0 13,680 18,375 MN : 5 5 34.0 35.0 170 175 MT : 280 440 26.0 25.0 7,280 11,000 ND : 2,570 2,800 22.0 29.0 56,540 81,200 SD : 19 19 27.0 26.0 513 494 : US : 3,107 3,583 27.7 35.1 86,193 125,644 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Other Spring Wheat: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 1996-97 and Forecasted July 1, 1998 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production State:------------------------------------------------------------------------ : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 : 1996 : 1997 : 1998 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres -- Bushels -- ------ 1,000 Bushels ------ : CO : 50 48 70.0 76.0 5,100 3,500 3,648 ID : 570 520 78.0 79.0 50,400 44,460 41,080 MN : 2,400 1,720 32.0 33.0 105,000 76,800 56,760 MT : 4,200 3,500 29.0 29.0 106,600 121,800 101,500 NV : 5 8 95.0 100.0 750 475 800 ND : 8,400 6,600 25.0 31.0 313,500 210,000 204,600 OR : 130 115 55.0 53.0 6,405 7,150 6,095 SD : 2,400 1,850 28.0 32.0 83,250 67,200 59,200 UT : 29 27 46.0 55.0 1,680 1,334 1,485 WA : 445 465 54.0 48.0 18,170 24,030 22,320 WI : 7 7 35.0 36.0 350 245 252 WY : 21 11 36.0 31.0 780 756 341 : US : 18,657 14,871 29.9 33.5 691,985 557,750 498,081 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Winter Wheat: Head Population The National Agricultural Statistics Service is conducting winter wheat objective yield surveys in 10 States during 1998. Randomly selected plots in winter wheat fields are visited monthly from May through harvest to obtain specific counts and measurements. Data in this table are derived actual field counts and are not official estimates of the Agricultural Statistics Board. Winter Wheat: Heads per Square Foot, Selected States, 1994-98 1/ 2/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State and Month : 1994 : 1995 : 1996 : 1997 : 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : CO Jul : 41.6 52.9 33.5 41.5 40.3 Final : 41.6 51.6 33.5 41.3 : IL Jul : 45.8 56.4 40.2 56.7 51.1 Final : 45.8 56.4 40.2 56.6 : KS Jul : 49.6 54.5 35.5 48.1 51.3 Final : 49.6 55.0 35.6 48.1 : MO Jul : 39.4 49.8 42.8 53.8 43.6 Final : 39.4 49.8 43.3 53.8 : MT Jul : 31.0 31.0 29.3 30.9 37.2 Final : 31.4 33.7 28.7 32.3 : NE Jul : 45.7 60.3 42.9 48.4 56.4 Final : 45.9 58.8 42.6 47.9 : OH Jul : 47.1 53.9 43.1 53.6 55.4 Final : 47.1 52.9 43.6 53.5 : OK Jul : 48.0 43.4 32.5 52.8 39.9 Final : 48.0 43.4 32.5 53.2 : TX Jul : 35.6 37.9 32.2 42.9 39.6 Final : 35.8 38.2 32.3 42.3 : WA Jul : 32.0 29.3 38.1 32.8 38.2 Final : 31.9 29.3 37.9 32.9 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on the number of heads counted in plots selected for the objective yield survey. 2/ Final head counts will be published in the "Small Grains Summary" in September. Wheat: Production by Class, United States, 1996-1997 and Forecasted July 1, 1998 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Winter : Spring : :-------------------------------------------------------------: Year : Hard : Soft : : Hard : : : Total : Red : Red : White : Red : Durum : White : ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Bushels : 1996 : 761,412 422,019 293,627 630,866 116,090 61,119 2,285,133 1997 :1,120,891 483,890 277,828 500,643 86,193 57,107 2,526,552 1998 :1,179,731 450,854 268,134 445,330 125,644 52,751 2,522,444 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Wheat class estimates are based on varietal acreage survey data available for all wheat producing States. Unless unusual situations dictate, the previous end-of-season class percentages are used throughout the forecast season. Tobacco: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Class, Type, State, and United States, 1997 and Forecasted July 1, 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production Class and Type :--------------------------------------------------------- : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----- Acres ----- --- Pounds -- --- 1,000 Pounds -- : Class 1, Flue-cured : Type 11, Old Belts : NC : 90,000 74,000 2,025 2,100 182,250 155,400 VA : 41,000 35,000 2,315 2,250 94,915 78,750 US : 131,000 109,000 2,116 2,148 277,165 234,150 Type 12, Eastern NC : Belt : NC : 179,000 150,000 2,445 2,100 437,655 315,000 Type 13, NC Border & : SC Belt : NC : 40,000 32,000 2,455 1,900 98,200 60,800 SC : 54,000 45,000 2,340 2,150 126,360 96,750 US : 94,000 77,000 2,389 2,046 224,560 157,550 Type 14, GA-FL Belt : FL : 7,300 6,500 2,610 2,350 19,053 15,275 GA : 43,000 42,000 2,075 2,000 89,225 84,000 US : 50,300 48,500 2,153 2,047 108,278 99,275 Total 11-14 : 454,300 384,500 2,306 2,096 1,047,658 805,975 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Peaches: Total Production by Type, State, and United States, 1996-97 and Forecasted July 1, 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Total Production State :----------------------------------------------------------- : 1996 : 1997 : 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Million Pounds : AL : 0.5 29.0 16.0 AR : 1.2 14.3 13.0 CA - Freestone : 674.0 739.0 650.0 CO : 17.0 7.0 20.0 CT : 2.8 3.0 2.8 DE 1/ : 2.1 GA : 10.0 160.0 70.0 ID : 8.5 5.5 8.0 IL : 2.0 12.5 15.0 IN : 2.3 3.8 6.3 KS : 0.4 0.2 0.5 KY : 0.7 1.3 6.0 LA : 0.2 4.0 3.0 MD : 9.3 9.7 10.5 MA : 1.6 1.8 1.9 MI : 40.0 61.0 52.0 MO : 3.3 10.5 10.0 NJ : 78.0 65.0 75.0 NY : 12.0 12.0 10.0 NC : 1.9 10.0 25.0 OH : 7.1 6.0 6.0 OK 2/ : 2.0 26.0 OR : 11.0 13.0 14.0 PA : 75.0 75.0 85.0 SC : 8.0 160.0 140.0 TN : 0.4 3.5 3.0 TX : 6.0 20.0 24.0 UT : 7.0 7.0 7.0 VA : 14.0 9.0 22.0 WA : 11.0 45.0 47.0 WV : 16.0 13.0 13.0 : Total Above : 1,023.3 1,503.1 1,382.0 : CA : Clingstone : 1,093.0 1,148.0 1,050.0 : US : 2,116.3 2,651.1 2,432.0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Estimates discontinued in 1997. 2/ No significant commercial production in 1996 due to freeze damage. Miscellaneous Fruits and Nuts: Total Production by Crop, State, and United States, 1996-97 and Forecasted July 1, 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Total Production Crop and State :----------------------------------------------------- : 1996 : 1997 : 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Tons : Grapes Table Type : CA : 592,000 825,000 750,000 Grapes Wine Type : CA : 2,225,000 2,940,000 2,800,000 Grapes Raisin Type 1/ : CA : 2,192,000 2,877,000 2,500,000 All Grapes : CA : 5,009,000 6,642,000 6,050,000 : Apricots : CA : 76,000 132,000 125,000 UT 2/ : 300 200 WA : 3,000 6,000 5,000 US : 79,300 138,000 130,200 : Walnuts 3/ : CA : 208,000 269,000 255,000 : : 1,000 Pounds : Almonds (Shelled Basis) 3/: CA : 510,000 757,000 540,000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Fresh equivalent of dried and not dried. 2/ No significant commercial production in 1997 due to freeze damage. 3/ Utilized production. Citrus Fruits: Utilized Production by Crop, State, and United States, 1996-97 and Forecasted July 1, 1998 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Utilized Production : Utilized Production : Boxes : Ton Equivalent Crop and State :----------------------------------------------------------- : 1995-96 : 1996-97 : 1997-98 : 1995-96 : 1996-97 : 1997-98 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 Boxes 2/ ----- ------- 1,000 Tons ------- Oranges : Early Mid & : Navel 3/ : AZ : 700 400 350 27 15 13 CA : 38,000 40,000 44,000 1,426 1,500 1,650 FL : 121,200 134,200 140,000 5,454 6,039 6,300 TX 4/ : 830 1,300 1,350 35 55 57 US : 160,730 175,900 185,700 6,942 7,609 8,020 Valencia : AZ : 950 600 650 36 23 25 CA : 20,000 24,000 30,000 750 900 1,125 FL : 82,100 92,000 104,000 3,695 4,140 4,680 TX 4/ : 110 120 180 4 5 8 US : 103,160 116,720 134,830 4,485 5,068 5,838 All : AZ : 1,650 1,000 1,000 63 38 38 CA : 58,000 64,000 74,000 2,176 2,400 2,775 FL : 203,300 226,200 244,000 9,149 10,179 10,980 TX 4/ : 940 1,420 1,530 39 60 65 US : 263,890 292,620 320,530 11,427 12,677 13,858 Temples : FL : 2,150 2,400 2,250 97 108 101 Grapefruit : White Seedless : FL 5/ : 23,200 23,500 18,250 986 999 776 Colored Seedless : FL 5/ : 28,100 31,400 30,600 1,194 1,334 1,301 Other : FL : 1,050 900 650 45 38 28 All : AZ : 1,200 900 800 40 30 27 CA : 8,100 8,200 9,000 271 275 302 FL 5/ : 52,350 55,800 49,500 2,225 2,371 2,105 TX 4/ : 4,550 5,300 4,800 182 212 192 US : 66,200 70,200 64,100 2,718 2,888 2,626 Tangerines : AZ : 1,000 550 600 38 21 23 CA 4/ : 2,600 2,600 2,400 98 98 90 FL : 4,500 6,300 5,200 213 299 247 US : 8,100 9,450 8,200 349 418 360 Lemons : AZ : 5,100 2,600 2,600 194 99 99 CA : 21,000 20,000 22,000 798 760 836 US : 26,100 22,600 24,600 992 859 935 Tangelos : FL : 2,450 3,950 2,850 110 178 128 K-Early Citrus : FL : 160 150 40 7 7 2 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- See footnotes on next page. Citrus Fruits Footnotes 1/ The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest the following year. 2/ Net lbs. per box: oranges-AZ & CA-75, FL-90, TX-85; grapefruit-AZ & CA-67, FL-85, TX-80; lemons-76; tangelos, K-Early Citrus & Temples-90; tangerines-AZ & CA-75, FL-95. 3/ Navel and miscellaneous varieties in AZ and CA. Early (including Navel) and midseason varieties in FL and TX. Small quantities of tangerines in TX. 4/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast. 5/ Excludes economic abandonment in 1995-96 of 3,000,000 boxes of Colored Seedless; in 1996-97 of 3,000,000 boxes of White Seedless and 3,000,000 boxes of Colored Seedless. Papayas: Area and Fresh Production, by Month, Hawaii, 1997-98 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area : Fresh Production :------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : Total in Crop : Harvested : : :---------------------------------------------: 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------------- Acres ---------------- 1,000 Pounds : May : 4,335 3,220 2,125 2,160 2,730 3,150 Jun : 5,245 3,625 2,255 2,460 2,760 2,625 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Potatoes: Area Planted by Seasonal Group, State, and United States, 1997-98 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Seasonal Group : : :: Seasonal Group : : and State : 1997 : 1998 :: and State : 1997 : 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres :: : 1,000 Acres : :: : Winter 1/ : :: Fall : CA : 6.6 7.0 :: CA : 10.5 10.3 FL : 9.0 8.5 :: CO : 77.0 75.8 Total : 15.6 15.5 :: ID : 390.0 405.0 : :: 10 SW Co : 27.0 27.0 Spring 1/ : :: Other ID : 363.0 378.0 AL : 1.6 1.8 :: IN : 5.3 5.3 AZ : 6.2 8.2 :: ME : 71.0 63.0 CA : 20.7 18.9 :: MA : 2.7 2.7 FL : 34.5 36.8 :: MI : 48.0 50.0 Hastings : 25.5 26.5 :: MN : 77.0 82.0 Other FL : 9.0 10.3 :: MT : 10.4 10.6 NC : 17.0 17.5 :: NE : 19.6 20.2 TX : 8.3 10.0 :: NV : 7.0 7.0 Total : 88.3 93.2 :: NM : 6.3 6.2 : :: NY : 30.0 30.0 Summer : :: ND : 125.0 130.0 AL : 6.0 5.6 :: OH : 5.3 5.0 CA : 5.9 6.2 :: OR : 54.5 56.0 CO : 7.8 8.4 :: Malheur : 11.0 12.0 DE : 4.3 4.7 :: Other OR : 43.5 44.0 IL : 4.8 5.8 :: PA : 15.0 15.0 IA : 1.3 1.2 :: RI : 0.8 0.7 MD : 3.4 4.6 :: SD : 4.5 5.0 MO : 6.4 9.1 :: UT : 3.1 2.7 NE : 4.4 4.5 :: WA : 148.0 152.0 NJ : 2.2 2.2 :: WI : 78.0 83.0 NM : 4.4 4.3 :: WY : 0.5 0.5 NC : 1.2 1.1 :: : TX : 8.5 8.2 :: Total : 1,189.5 1,218.0 VA : 8.0 8.5 :: : Total : 68.6 74.4 :: US : 1,362.0 1,401.1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast. Potatoes: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Seasonal Group, State, and United States, 1996-98 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Seasonal : Area Harvested : Yield : Production Group and :------------------------------------------------------------------- State : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 : 1996 : 1997 : 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres ---- Cwt --- -------- 1,000 Cwt ------- : Winter 1/ : CA : 6.6 7.0 240 220 1,425 1,584 1,540 FL : 8.8 8.0 175 180 1,848 1,540 1,440 Total : 15.4 15.0 203 199 3,273 3,124 2,980 : Spring 1/ : AL : 1.5 1.7 175 165 304 263 281 AZ : 6.2 8.2 275 235 2,475 1,705 1,927 CA : 20.7 18.9 400 335 7,538 8,280 6,332 FL : 33.3 34.5 199 178 7,765 6,641 6,155 Hastings : 24.5 24.5 210 190 6,325 5,145 4,655 Other FL : 8.8 10.0 170 150 1,440 1,496 1,500 NC : 16.5 17.0 200 185 3,230 3,300 3,145 TX : 8.0 9.5 195 170 1,105 1,560 1,615 Total : 86.2 89.8 252 217 22,417 21,749 19,455 : Summer : AL : 5.9 5.5 150 150 1,005 885 825 CA : 5.9 6.1 360 370 2,088 2,124 2,257 CO : 7.6 8.2 350 350 3,381 2,660 2,870 DE : 4.2 4.7 230 220 1,248 966 1,034 IL : 4.6 5.6 325 290 1,650 1,495 1,624 IA : 1.3 1.1 210 190 315 273 209 MD : 3.4 4.6 280 260 559 952 1,196 MO : 5.8 8.6 255 230 1,633 1,479 1,978 NE : 4.3 4.4 390 405 1,485 1,677 1,782 NJ : 2.2 2.2 270 230 663 594 506 NM : 4.3 4.3 320 340 1,404 1,376 1,462 NC : 1.2 1.1 100 95 108 120 105 TX : 7.7 7.4 245 250 2,280 1,887 1,850 VA : 7.5 8.0 195 205 1,688 1,463 1,640 : Total : 65.9 71.8 272 269 19,507 17,951 19,338 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- See footnotes at end of table. --continued Potatoes: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Seasonal Group, State, and United States, 1996-98 (continued) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Seasonal : Area Harvested : Yield : Production Group and :--------------------------------------------------------------- State : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 : 1996 : 1997 : 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres --- Cwt --- ------ 1,000 Cwt ----- : Fall 2/ : CA : 10.5 10.3 400 4,600 4,200 CO : 76.9 75.6 330 29,175 25,377 ID : 388.0 403.0 349 142,800 135,430 10 SW Co : 27.0 27.0 470 11,900 12,690 Other ID : 361.0 376.0 340 130,900 122,740 IN : 4.9 4.9 270 1,352 1,323 ME : 71.0 62.0 270 21,175 19,170 MA : 2.7 2.7 250 676 675 MI : 47.5 48.5 300 13,800 14,250 MN : 73.0 77.0 280 24,600 20,440 MT : 10.4 10.6 320 3,213 3,328 NE : 19.3 20.0 390 4,402 7,527 NV : 6.9 6.9 430 3,160 2,967 NM : 6.3 6.2 420 2,560 2,646 NY : 29.5 29.5 285 7,980 8,408 ND : 105.0 125.0 205 28,820 21,525 OH : 5.0 4.8 235 1,275 1,175 OR : 53.5 55.4 508 30,124 27,161 Malheur : 10.9 11.9 440 5,320 4,796 Other OR : 42.6 43.5 525 24,804 22,365 PA : 14.5 14.5 220 4,208 3,190 RI : 0.8 0.7 260 192 208 SD : 4.2 4.6 250 1,344 1,050 UT : 3.1 2.7 295 1,176 915 WA : 148.0 152.0 595 94,990 88,060 WI : 76.5 81.0 365 31,590 27,923 WY : 0.5 0.5 280 224 140 : Total :1,158.0 1,198.4 360 453,436 417,088 : US :1,325.5 1,375.0 347 498,633 459,912 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast. 2/ The forecast of fall potato production will be released November 10, 1998. Fall Potatoes: Percent of Acreage Planted by Type of Potatoes, 11 Major States, 1997-98 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Potato Types 1/ :-------------------------------------------------------------- State : Reds : Whites : Russets :-------------------------------------------------------------- : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent : CO : 5 5 2 3 93 92 ID : 8 7 92 93 ME : 4 4 68 70 28 26 MI : 3 3 72 75 25 22 MN : 27 18 14 19 59 63 NY : 100 100 ND : 18 19 39 39 43 42 OR : 2 1 28 27 70 72 PA : 100 100 WA : 3 3 12 9 85 88 WI : 10 7 23 35 67 58 : 11 State Total : 6 5 24 25 70 70 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Predominant type shown may include small portion of other type(s) constituting less than 1 percent of State's total. Fall Potatoes: Acres Planted for Certified Seed Potatoes, by State and Total, 1997-98 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1997 Crop : 1998 Crop :----------------------------------------------------------------------- State : Entered for : : Percent : Entered for : Certification : Certified : Certified : Certification -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : --------- Acres --------- Percent Acres : AK : 150 109 73 150 CA : 1,200 1,501 125 1,250 CO : 11,500 10,748 93 14,563 ID : 46,773 48,005 103 44,668 ME : 19,000 21,946 116 16,335 MI : 2,500 2,306 92 2,500 MN : 15,022 13,461 90 14,375 MT : 9,800 9,833 100 10,075 NE : 7,900 7,700 97 6,469 NY : 1,550 1,433 92 1,700 ND : 27,433 24,064 88 24,032 OR : 2,526 2,520 100 2,600 PA : 175 183 105 183 SD : 1,435 1,508 105 1,400 UT : 100 40 40 33 WA : 2,400 2,158 90 2,350 WI : 10,300 10,536 102 10,736 : Total : 159,764 158,051 99 153,419 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data supplied by State seed certification officials. Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 1997-98 1/ (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted : Area Harvested Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres : Grains & Hay : Barley : 6,910.0 6,446.0 6,425.0 6,078.0 Corn for Grain 2/ : 80,227.0 80,798.0 73,720.0 74,284.0 Corn for Silage : 5,758.0 Hay, All : 60,815.0 59,819.0 Alfalfa : 23,673.0 23,437.0 All Other : 37,142.0 36,382.0 Oats : 5,169.0 4,992.0 2,911.0 2,936.0 Rice : 3,056.0 3,215.0 3,034.0 3,187.0 Rye : 1,433.0 1,586.0 341.0 428.0 Sorghum for Grain 2/ : 10,108.0 8,926.0 9,391.0 8,118.0 Sorghum for Silage : 310.0 Wheat, All : 70,989.0 65,799.0 63,577.0 59,211.0 Winter : 48,342.0 46,850.0 41,813.0 40,757.0 Durum : 3,250.0 3,700.0 3,107.0 3,583.0 Other Spring : 19,397.0 15,249.0 18,657.0 14,871.0 : Oilseeds : Canola : 728.0 1,133.0 698.0 1,087.0 Cottonseed : Flaxseed : 146.0 335.0 135.0 322.0 Mustard Seed : 74.4 124.0 72.8 121.0 Peanuts : 1,431.0 1,463.0 1,410.8 1,443.5 Rapeseed : 1.7 2.0 1.5 1.9 Safflower : 249.0 296.0 235.0 282.0 Soybeans for Beans : 70,850.0 72,720.0 69,884.0 71,698.0 Sunflower : 2,949.0 3,420.0 2,852.0 3,307.0 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All : 13,808.0 12,933.5 13,270.0 Upland : 13,558.0 12,620.0 13,021.0 Amer-Pima : 250.0 313.5 249.0 Sugarbeets : 1,459.3 1,493.7 1,428.3 1,473.2 Sugarcane : 914.0 936.0 Tobacco : 811.5 744.8 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 8.1 7.6 Dry Edible Beans : 1,851.8 2,047.2 1,720.2 1,943.7 Dry Edible Peas : 293.6 276.6 Lentils : 181.0 172.0 Wrinkled Seed Peas : : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 5.6 Ginger Root (HI) : 0.3 Hops : 43.3 36.4 Peppermint Oil : 136.3 Potatoes, All : 1,362.0 1,401.1 1,325.5 1,375.0 Winter : 15.6 15.5 15.4 15.0 Spring : 88.3 93.2 86.2 89.8 Summer : 68.6 74.4 65.9 71.8 Fall : 1,189.5 1,218.0 1,158.0 1,198.4 Spearmint Oil : 24.5 Sweet Potatoes : 86.7 86.1 83.3 83.2 Taro (HI) 3/ : 0.5 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 1998 crop year. 2/ Area planted for all purposes. 3/ Acreage is total acres in crop, not harvested acreage. Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 1997-98 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Yield : Production Crop :Unit :------------------------------------------- : : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : ------- 1,000 ------ : : Grains & Hay : : Barley : Bu : 58.3 61.9 374,478 375,962 Corn for Grain : " : 127.0 9,365,574 Corn for Silage : Ton : 16.0 91,903 Hay, All : " : 2.50 152,120 Alfalfa : " : 3.35 79,242 All Other : " : 1.96 72,878 Oats : Bu : 60.5 62.4 176,104 183,201 Rice 2/ : Cwt : 5,896 178,896 Rye : Bu : 26.1 8,912 Sorghum for Grain : " : 69.5 653,106 Sorghum for Silage : Ton : 12.5 3,885 Wheat, All : Bu : 39.7 42.6 2,526,552 2,522,444 Winter : " : 45.0 46.6 1,882,609 1,898,719 Durum : " : 27.7 35.1 86,193 125,644 Other Spring : " : 29.9 33.5 557,750 498,081 : : Oilseeds : : Canola : Lb : 1,310 914,385 Cottonseed : Ton : 6,935 Flaxseed : Bu : 16.1 2,171 Mustard Seed : Lb : 816 59,405 Peanuts : " : 2,507 3,537,050 Rapeseed : " : 1,300 1,950 Safflower : " : 1,830 430,050 Soybeans for Beans : Bu : 39.0 2,727,254 Sunflower : Lb : 1,320 3,763,428 : : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : : Cotton, All 2/ : Bale: 680 18,793.0 Upland 2/ : " : 673 18,245.0 Amer-Pima 2/ : " : 1,056 548.0 Sugarbeets : Ton : 20.9 29,886 Sugarcane : " : 34.7 31,693 Tobacco : Lb : 2,201 1,786,065 : : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : : Austrian Winter Peas 2/ : Cwt : 1,513 115 Dry Edible Beans 2/ : " : 1,695 29,156 Dry Edible Peas 2/ : " : 2,103 5,816 Lentils 2/ : " : 1,390 2,391 Wrinkled Seed Peas : " : 682 : : Potatoes & Misc. : : Coffee (HI) : Lb : 1,610 9,000 Ginger Root (HI) : " : 44,000 12,100 Hops : " : 1,729 74,872.1 Peppermint Oil : " : 75 10,256 Potatoes, All : Cwt : 347 459,912 Winter : " : 203 199 3,124 2,980 Spring : " : 252 217 21,749 19,455 Summer : " : 272 269 17,951 19,338 Fall : " : 360 417,088 Spearmint Oil : Lb : 98 2,403 Sweet Potatoes : Cwt : 162 13,512 Taro (HI) 3/ : Lb : 5,500 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 1998 crop year. 2/ Yield in pounds. 3/ Yield is not estimated. Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 1996-98 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Production Crop : Unit :----------------------------------------------- : : 1996 : 1997 : 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 1,000 : : Citrus 2/ : : Grapefruit : Ton : 2,718 2,888 2,626 K-Early Citrus (FL) : " : 7 7 2 Lemons : " : 992 859 935 Oranges : " : 11,427 12,677 13,858 Tangelos (FL) : " : 110 178 128 Tangerines : " : 349 418 360 Temples (FL) : " : 97 108 101 : : Non-Citrus : : Apples : Lb : 10,392.0 10,386.1 Apricots : Ton : 79.3 138.0 130.2 Bananas (HI) : Lb : 13,000.0 13,700.0 Grapes : Ton : 5,554.3 7,282.4 Olives (CA) : " : 166.0 104.0 Papayas (HI) : Lb : 41,800.0 38,800.0 Peaches : " : 2,116.3 2,651.1 2,432.0 Pears : Ton : 820.8 1,044.1 Prunes, Dried (CA) : " : 223.0 214.0 170.0 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA): " : 20.0 29.0 : : Nuts & Misc. : : Almonds (CA) : Lb : 510,000 757,000 540,000 Hazelnuts : Ton : 18.5 46.2 Pecans : Lb : 221,500 338,100 Pistachios (CA) : " : 105,000 180,000 Walnuts (CA) : Ton : 208.0 269.0 255.0 Maple Syrup : Gal : 1,567 1,298 1,159 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 1998 crop year. 2/ Production years are 1995-96, 1996-97, and 1997-98. Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 1997-98 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted : Area Harvested Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Hectares : Grains & Hay : Barley : 2,796,410 2,608,630 2,600,130 2,459,710 Corn for Grain 2/ :32,467,060 32,698,140 29,833,750 30,061,990 Corn for Silage : 2,330,210 Hay, All : 24,611,230 24,208,150 Alfalfa : 9,580,230 9,484,720 All Other : 15,031,000 14,723,430 Oats : 2,091,840 2,020,210 1,178,050 1,188,170 Rice : 1,236,730 1,301,080 1,227,830 1,289,750 Rye : 579,920 641,840 138,000 173,210 Sorghum for Grain 2/ : 4,090,610 3,612,260 3,800,440 3,285,270 Sorghum for Silage : 125,450 Wheat, All :28,728,530 26,628,200 25,728,970 23,962,090 Winter :19,563,520 18,959,730 16,921,300 16,493,950 Durum : 1,315,240 1,497,350 1,257,370 1,450,000 Other Spring : 7,849,770 6,171,120 7,550,300 6,018,140 : Oilseeds : Canola : 294,610 458,510 282,470 439,900 Cottonseed : Flaxseed : 59,080 135,570 54,630 130,310 Mustard Seed : 30,110 50,180 29,460 48,970 Peanuts : 579,110 592,060 570,940 584,170 Rapeseed : 690 810 610 770 Safflower : 100,770 119,790 95,100 114,120 Soybeans for Beans :28,672,290 29,429,060 28,281,360 29,015,460 Sunflower : 1,193,430 1,384,040 1,154,180 1,338,310 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All : 5,587,960 5,234,060 5,370,240 Upland : 5,486,790 5,107,190 5,269,470 Amer-Pima : 101,170 126,870 100,770 Sugarbeets : 590,560 604,490 578,020 596,190 Sugarcane : 369,890 378,790 Tobacco : 328,400 301,390 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 3,280 3,080 Dry Edible Beans : 749,400 828,480 696,150 786,600 Dry Edible Peas : 118,820 111,940 Lentils : 73,250 69,610 Wrinkled Seed Peas : : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 2,270 Ginger Root (HI) : 110 Hops : 17,520 14,730 Peppermint Oil : 55,160 Potatoes, All : 551,190 567,010 536,420 556,450 Winter : 6,310 6,270 6,230 6,070 Spring : 35,730 37,720 34,880 36,340 Summer : 27,760 30,110 26,670 29,060 Fall : 481,380 492,910 468,630 484,980 Spearmint Oil : 9,910 Sweet Potatoes : 35,090 34,840 33,710 33,670 Taro (HI) 3/ : 180 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 1998 crop year. 2/ Area planted for all purposes. 3/ Area is total hectares in crop, not harvested hectares. Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 1997-98 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Yield : Production Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Metric Tons : Grains & Hay : Barley : 3.14 3.33 8,153,300 8,185,610 Corn for Grain : 7.97 237,896,540 Corn for Silage : 35.78 83,373,000 Hay, All : 5.61 138,000,940 Alfalfa : 7.50 71,887,130 All Other : 4.40 66,113,810 Oats : 2.17 2.24 2,556,140 2,659,160 Rice : 6.61 8,114,590 Rye : 1.64 226,380 Sorghum for Grain : 4.37 16,589,660 Sorghum for Silage : 28.09 3,524,410 Wheat, All : 2.67 2.86 68,761,480 68,649,670 Winter : 3.03 3.13 51,236,220 51,674,660 Durum : 1.87 2.36 2,345,790 3,419,470 Other Spring : 2.01 2.25 15,179,470 13,555,540 : Oilseeds : Canola : 1.47 414,760 Cottonseed : 6,290,960 Flaxseed : 1.01 55,150 Mustard Seed : 0.91 26,950 Peanuts : 2.81 1,604,380 Rapeseed : 1.44 880 Safflower : 2.05 195,070 Soybeans for Beans : 2.62 74,223,690 Sunflower : 1.48 1,707,060 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All : 0.76 4,091,690 Upland : 0.75 3,972,380 Amer-Pima : 1.18 119,310 Sugarbeets : 46.91 27,112,120 Sugarcane : 77.73 28,751,410 Tobacco : 2.47 810,150 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 1.69 5,220 Dry Edible Beans : 1.90 1,322,490 Dry Edible Peas : 2.36 263,810 Lentils : 1.56 108,450 Wrinkled Seed Peas : 30,940 : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 1.80 4,080 Ginger Root (HI) : 49.91 5,490 Hops : 1.94 33,960 Peppermint Oil : 0.08 4,650 Potatoes, All : 38.89 20,861,260 Winter : 22.74 22.27 141,700 135,170 Spring : 28.28 24.28 986,520 882,460 Summer : 30.53 30.18 814,240 877,160 Fall : 40.37 18,918,790 Spearmint Oil : 0.11 1,090 Sweet Potatoes : 18.18 612,890 Taro (HI) 2/ : 13.83 2,490 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 1998 crop year. 2/ Yield is not estimated. Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 1996-98 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Production Crop :----------------------------------------------------- : 1996 : 1997 : 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Metric tons : Citrus 2/ : Grapefruit : 2,465,730 2,619,950 2,382,270 K-Early Citrus (FL) : 6,350 6,350 1,810 Lemons : 899,930 779,270 848,220 Oranges : 10,366,400 11,500,380 12,571,770 Tangelos (FL) : 99,790 161,480 116,120 Tangerines : 316,610 379,200 326,590 Temples (FL) : 88,000 97,980 91,630 : Non-Citrus : Apples : 4,710 4,710 Apricots : 71,940 125,190 118,120 Bananas (HI) : 5,900 6,210 Grapes : 5,038,780 6,606,480 Olives (CA) : 150,590 94,350 Papayas (HI) : 18,960 17,600 Peaches : 960 1,200 1,100 Pears : 744,570 947,190 Prunes, Dried (CA) : 202,300 194,140 154,220 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA) : 18,140 26,310 : Nuts & Misc. : Almonds (CA) : 231,330 343,370 244,940 Hazelnuts : 16,780 41,910 Pecans : 100,470 153,360 Pistachios (CA) : 47,630 81,650 Walnuts (CA) : 188,690 244,030 231,330 Maple Syrup : 7,830 6,490 5,790 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 1998 crop year. 2/ Production years are 1995-96, 1996-97, and 1997-98. Crop Moisture Depicts short term (up to about 4 weeks) abnormal dryness or wetness affecting Agriculture, responds rapidly, can change considerably week to week, and indicates normal conditions at the beginning and end of the growing season. Uses...applicable in measuring the short term, week-to-week, status of dryness or wetness affecting warm season crops and field operations. Limitations...may not be applicable to germination and shallow rooted crops which are unable to extract the deep or subsoil moisture from a 5-foot profile, or for cool season crops growing when temperatures are averaging below about 55 degrees fahrenheit. It is not generally indicative of the long term (months, years) drought or wet spells which are depicted by the drought severity index. Drought Severity Drought severity index (Palmer): Depicts prolonged (months, years) abnormal dryness or wetness; responds slowly; changes little from week to week; and reflects long term moisture runoff, recharge, and deep percolation, as well as evaportranspiration. Uses...applicable in measuring disruptive effects of prolonged dryness or wetness on water sensitive economies; designating disaster areas of drought or wetness and reflecting the general long-term status of water supplies in aquifers, reservoirs, and streams. Limitations...is not generally indicative of short-term (few weeks) status of drought or wetness such as frequently affects crops and field operations (this is indicated by the crop moisture index). June Weather Summary: Under a hot, dry regime, drought intensified from eastern New Mexico to the southern Atlantic Coast. Monthly rainfall was less than 25 percent of normal on the southern Plains and in parts of eastern Texas and Florida. Wildfires spread quickly in parts of Florida, becoming especially severe in east-central parts of the State. Disorganized tropical moisture delivered late-month rainfall to Texas' Upper Coast and southern Louisiana, but failed to boost soil moisture elsewhere. Toward month's end, dryness and heat also edged into the central High Plains. Very wet weather prevailed in the Great Basin, northern Rockies, northern Plains, Midwest, and Northeast, maintaining adequate to excessive soil moisture. Monthly totals topped 200 percent of normal at many locations in these areas. Localized flooding struck some low-lying areas in the Corn Belt, Ohio Valley, and Northeast. In California, where June temperatures ranged from 2 to 8 degrees F below normal in inland areas, drier weather finally arrived in early June. Monthly temperatures also averaged more than 2 degrees F below normal across the Great Basin, northern Plains, upper Midwest, and northern Rockies, with departures reaching -8 degrees F in the latter area. In contrast, monthly temperatures ranged from 2 to 6 degrees F above normal from the southern Plains into the Southeast. In early June, sharply contrasting air masses clashed across the Central and Eastern States. On June 4, Williston, ND notched a monthly record low of 26 degrees F, while highs struggled to only 45 degrees F in North Platte, NE and Goodland, KS. June 2-3 snowfall totaled 3.0 inches in Rapid City, SD, and June 3-4 amounts in Wyoming reached 2.0 inches in Casper and 6.8 inches in Riverton. By June 6, lows dipped below freezing as far south as Laramie, WY (29 degrees F) and North Platte (30 degrees F). Farther south, Oklahoma City logged 105 degrees F on June 2, their highest reading since July 7, 1996, while Altus, OK recorded 113 degrees F. Maxima in Melbourne, FL soared to 101 degrees F on June 2 and 5, their highest readings since June 26, 1950. Heat intensified again at mid-month across the South, setting several June and all-time records. In Houston, TX, a high of 102 degrees F on June 14 was their second-earliest triple-digit heat behind June 12, 1978. Elsewhere in Texas, June records were established in Austin (108 degrees F) and College Station (107 degrees F). Orange Grove, TX reported 117 degrees F, and an all-time- record high was established in Corpus Christi, TX (106 degrees F). In Florida, daily-record highs were tied or broken on 22 days during June in Melbourne (including 15 in a row from June 11-25), 14 days in Daytona Beach, and 13 days in Orlando. A final wave of heat at month's end resulted in a few more all-time-record highs, including 108 degrees F (on June 27 and 28) in Amarillo, TX and 110 degrees F (on June 28) in Dodge City, KS. June-record-tying streaks of 100-degree heat reached 7 days (June 23-29) in Wichita, KS and 8 days (June 22- 29) in Amarillo. Amarillo's 13 days of 100-degree heat during the month broke their record of 12, set in 1953 and 1990. Elsewhere in Texas, Midland's string of highs at or above 100 degrees F reached an all-time-record 14 days (June 16- 29). In Florida, Tallahassee logged 12 days of triple-digit heat during the month, breaking their June record of 8 days, set in 1944, and tying their all- time record for an entire year, set in 1931. Hottest June on Record Location Average (degrees F) Former Record/Year Brownsville, TX 87.3 86.9 in 1980 Corpus Christi, TX 85.8 85.8 in 1953 Tampa, FL 85.6 83.7 in 1977, 1985 Miami, FL 85.4 84.2 in 1987 Melbourne, FL 85.1 81.9 in 1980 Orlando, FL 85.0 83.2 in 1981 Hollywood, FL 84.8 82.9 in 1963 Ft. Lauderdale, FL 84.7 82.5 in 1952 W. Palm Beach, FL 84.5 83.4 in 1981 Daytona Beach, FL 84.5 82.3 in 1977 Columbus, GA 83.6 83.3 in 1981 Miami Beach, FL 82.6 82.6 in 1994 Huntsville, AL 80.5 79.2 in 1969 In contrast, highs in Arizona hit 100 degrees F for the first time this year in Phoenix and Tucson on June 2, the latest such occurrence since 1971 and 1987, respectively. Las Vegas, NV finally notched a triple-digit high on June 26, their second-latest date on record behind June 30, 1965. Elko, NV reported the year's first high at or above 80 degrees F on June 28, easily surpassing their former record (June 16, 1971). In Montana, Miles City's average temperature of 60.5 degrees F was 6.5 degrees below normal and their lowest June value on record. In California, the season (July 1 - June 30) ended with a record number of days with measurable precipitation in locations such as downtown San Francisco (119 days), downtown Sacramento (103), and at UCLA (63). Records had stood since 1982-83 at Sacramento and at UCLA, but since 1889-90 in San Francisco. San Francisco's seasonal rainfall of 47.22 inches was second only to a 49.27- inch total in 1861-62. Bakersfield total (14.66 inches) was 256 percent of normal and well above the former record of 11.73 inches, set in 1977-78. Elsewhere in the West, Salt Lake City's monthly rainfall of 3.84 inches was not only a record for June, but also their wettest summer month on record (3.66 inches in August 1968). Despite continued cool weather in the Sierra Nevada, the snowpack's water equivalent dropped from 32 inches at the end of May to 7 inches on June 30, according to California's Department of Water Resources. In Fresno, CA, thunderstorms on June 6 dumped 1.80 inches of rain, breaking their monthly record. Salt Lake City measured 1.48 inches on the 17th, their second-wettest June day on record. On June 16-17, 22 inches of snow blanketed nearby Alta, UT. In Montana, Billings noted rain on 19 of the month's first 20 days, while Missoula observed their greatest June total (4.23 inches) since 1907. Several locations in the Midwest, Ohio Valley, and Northeast also reported monthly record or near-record rainfall. Rainfall of 9.91 inches in Des Moines, IA and 9.01 inches in Portland, ME were the greatest June totals since 1947 and 1922, respectively. Elsewhere in Maine, June totals reached 16.95 inches in Hartford and 15.34 inches in Rumsford. In Milton, MA, the Blue Hill Observatory had its second-wettest month on record (17.32 inches), behind August 1955 (18.78 inches). A significant portion of the Northeast's rain fell from June 12-14, causing significant flooding in several drainage basins, including along the Saco River. Storm-total rainfall reached 10.30 inches in Sharon, MA, 9.28 inches in Ephratah, NY, 8.58 inches in Portsmouth, NH, and 8.46 inches in Hartford, ME. Boston, MA had their wettest 24-hour period in June on record (5.99 inches on June 13-14). Meanwhile in Iowa, Atlantic was inundated with an all-time State-record 13.18 inches of rain on June 14. A few days later, on June 17, the Nishnabotna River crested at a record 15.18 feet above flood stage at Hamburg, IA. Record-High June Rainfall (Inches) Location Total Former Record/Year Milton, MA 17.32 13.73 in 1982 North Foster, RI 14.79 12.62 in 1982 Nashville, TN 11.95 11.64 in 1928 Paducah, KY 10.98 not available Charleston, WV 10.67 8.61 in 1910 Elkins, WV 10.05 8.35 in 1939 Salt Lake City, UT 3.84 2.93 in 1947 Fresno, CA 1.93 1.66 in 1939 In contrast, Melbourne, FL received only 0.16 inches during the month, breaking their June record of 1.30 inches, set in 1993. In Corpus Christi, TX, April- June rainfall (0.31 inches) was the lowest on record, eclipsing their 1923 record of 1.23 inches. March 18 - June 30 rainfall in Victoria, TX totaled only 0.96 inches (8 percent of normal). Victoria's total for the first half of 1998 was 7.99 inches, compared with more than 42 inches during January-June 1997. April-June rainfall in Shreveport, LA was 2.29 inches, their third-lowest for any 3-month period behind 1.39 inches in September-November 1924 and 2.09 inches in June-August 1934. Along the western Gulf Coast, however, 6.75 inches of rain pelted Galveston, TX on June 28, easing dryness. General Crop Comments: Frequent thunderstorms provided above normal rainfall to most areas of the Corn Belt, allowing crops to develop well ahead of normal. Locally heavy downpours flooded low-lying fields and eroded hill sides and waterways. As the month ended, many corn fields had uneven stands, with plants in low-lying and poorly drained areas exhibiting stunted growth and discolored from extended periods of standing in water and soggy soils. Several storm cells produced hail and strong winds that also caused crop damage in isolated areas around the Corn Belt and in the Great Plains. Warm weather ripened the winter wheat well ahead of normal in most of the winter wheat producing States. Dry weather in the central and southern Plains allowed farmers to make rapid progress harvesting and by the end of the month most of their winter wheat was harvested. In the southern and eastern Corn Belt, harvest began earlier than normal and as the month ended, progress was 1 week ahead of the 5-year average. Across the northern Plains and Great Lakes region, above normal temperatures rapidly ripened the crop which allowed the harvest to begin 2 weeks early in some areas. Hot, dry weather stressed cotton in the Southeast, Mississippi Delta, and southern Plains. Scattered showers and thunderstorms provided temporary relief from the dry conditions in some cotton growing areas, but conditions in most cotton fields deteriorated from the previous month. Peanuts suffered from excessive dryness in the eastern Gulf Coast and southern Plains, but fared better in the mid-Atlantic Coastal Plains region. Temperatures remained above normal most of the month in the northern Plains, providing excellent growing conditions for small grains. Dry weather stressed crops in Montana early in the month until rains late in the month relieved the drought conditions. Southwestern States continued to experience below-normal temperatures that slowed crop development, especially in California, where many crops were 1 to 4 weeks behind normal development as the month ended. Oats: Oat production for the 1998 crop year is forecast at 183 million bushels, 4 percent above 1997 production. If realized, this would be the fourth smallest crop since records were first kept in 1866. The forecasted yield, at 62.4 bushels per acre, is up 1.9 bushels from last year's 60.5 bushels per acre and the highest average yield since 1992. Area harvested and to be harvested for grain in 1998 is 2.94 million acres, up 1 percent from 1997. If realized, this would be the third smallest acreage harvested for grain on record. Dry weather allowed oat seeding to progress ahead of normal in most oat producing States. Above normal spring temperatures, combined with adequate soil moisture, promoted rapid germination and early growth. Pockets of excessive rainfall, strong winds, and hail caused isolated damage to some oats in the Corn Belt and northern Great Plains. In the southern Plains, the crop benefitted from a mild winter and hot, dry weather as the growing season ended. Warm weather and adequate moisture aided crop development in the Pacific Northwest. Barley: Barley production for 1998 is forecast at 376 million bushels, up only fractionally from a year ago but down 5 percent from 1996. The first forecast for 1998 indicates that producers expect yields to average 61.9 bushels per acre, an increase of 3.6 bushels from last year. Area harvested and to be harvested, at 6.08 million acres, is 5 percent below the 6.43 million acres harvested the previous year. The higher expected yields in 1998 have offset the acreage declines from last year to keep production nearly the same as 1997. In comparing yields to the previous year, 12 states are expecting higher yields in 1998 while 15 States are indicating lower yields or no change from 1997. Northern Great Plains states are mostly showing higher average yields than those harvested in 1997. Producers in North Dakota, the largest barley acreage state, expect yields to average 58 bushels per acre, an increase of 13 bushels above the 1997 yield. Barley in Montana, which suffered with very dry spring conditions, was showing signs of improvement as timely rains were received in late May and during June. States and areas with excessive amounts of moisture and with low spring temperatures were showing some signs of diseases such as scab and stripe rust. Western districts of Minnesota and Eastern North Dakota were set back in late June, due to heavy rains, wind, and standing water in low- lying fields. Most Middle Atlantic states have experienced reduced yields as extremely wet conditions during spring months limited crop development. Yields in the Western States were mostly higher than the 1997 crop year. Barley harvest was ongoing or nearing completion in Arizona, Southern California, and most Eastern States. Winter Wheat: Area for grain harvest this year is forecast at 40.8 million acres, unchanged from the June 30 "Acreage", but down 3 percent from 1997. Harvesting progress was well ahead of average in the 19 major producing States as of June 28. Oklahoma's Hard Red Winter wheat harvest was nearly complete as of June 28. The Texas harvest was well ahead of average as was Kansas'; nearly a third of the Kansas grain area was harvested by the last full week of June. Objective Yield head count forecasts were essentially unchanged in Oklahoma and Texas, and are well above average in Kansas. The Oklahoma head weight forecast is a record high. Colorado and Texas head weights are the highest since 1985. About 17 percent of Nebraska's winter wheat was ripe by the end of June. The California harvest had just reached the Sacramento Valley by July 1. New Mexico's crop cutting was 77 percent complete with better yields. The South Dakota crop is maturing ahead of the normal pace. Harvested yields were generally lower than expected in the Southeast and Mid- Atlantic Soft Red Winter States. The Florida harvest finished the first week in June. Harvest progress was ahead of average in most of the Soft Red States. Objective Yield head counts are near average in Illinois and Missouri, but are at record highs in Ohio. Forecasted weight per head is below average for Illinois. Michigan's crop harvest began as of June 28 -- well ahead of normal. Oregon growers are now expecting higher yields. Washington's Objective Yield Survey head counts and weight forecasts are both above average and similar to 1996. Durum Wheat: Area for 1998 grain harvest is forecast at 3.58 million acres, up 15 percent from 1997. The North Dakota Durum crop is developing ahead of last year, but trails the 5-year average. Topsoil moisture supplies were rated short to adequate in northwest counties, but rain showers have improved prospects. Minnesota yield expectations are up from a year ago while Montana's and South Dakota's are down. Harvested yields improved in Arizona and California. The Imperial Valley harvest was virtually complete by July 1 and the San Joaquin Valley harvest was in full swing. Other Spring Wheat: Area for 1998 grain harvest is 14.9 million acres, down 20 percent from 1997. Forecasted production is down from last year in the Pacific Northwest (Idaho, Oregon, and Washington). Expected yields are higher than last year in Idaho, but grain area is down. Washington's spring crop was 95 percent headed; Idaho's just 21 percent. Yield prospects are above last year in Colorado, Nevada, Utah, and Wisconsin. Wyoming's are down sharply. Heavy rains the last two weeks of June have left standing water in many Minnesota fields. As of June 28, about 34 percent of North Dakota's spring wheat was heading and the South Dakota crop had progressed to 78 percent. Both States' crops are well ahead of last year and average. Foliar diseases have appeared in some North Dakota fields; wheat midge infestations are a concern in the northeast. Tobacco: The first flue-cured production forecast for this season is 806 million pounds, down 23 percent from the 1997 production. Yield per acre for all flue-cured is forecast at 2,096 pounds, down 210 pounds from the 1997 average yield. Acres for harvest, at 384,500 acres, are down 15 percent from last year. North Carolina's crop, which represents 66 percent of 1998's total U.S. flue- cured production, is down 26 percent from last year, due to reductions in both acres and yields. A mild winter and a wet spring slowed the setting out of the tobacco crop in most areas. Warmer weather during June has improved crop condition and boosted plant growth in Virginia while excessive hot, dry conditions are putting stress on Georgia's and Florida's crops. Peaches: As of July 1, the 1998 peach crop is forecast at 2.43 billion pounds, down 8 percent from 1997 but 15 percent above 1996. The U. S. Free- stone crop is forecast at l.38 billion pounds, also down 8 percent from 1997 but 35 percent above two years ago for comparable States. Sixteen of the thirty producing states expect to produce more Freestone peaches than in 1997. After no production in 1996 and only 2.00 million pounds in 1997, Oklahoma is expecting 26.0 million pounds in 1998. California's peach crop, both Clingstones and Freestones, is developing behind normal and growers are concerned about brown rot, mold, and split pits. California's Clingstone crop, at 1.05 billion pounds, is down 9 percent from last year and 4 percent below two years ago. Picking of the crop will begin in late July. The California Freestone crop is forecast at 650 million pounds, down 12 percent from last. Harvest of the crop is making progress with approximately one-third picked by July 1, about two weeks later than normal. South Carolina's peach crop, forecast at 140 million pounds, is unchanged from the June 1 forecast but down 13 percent from last year. As expected, the late varieties, least affected by earlier frosts, are currently producing good size and quality. Harvest was 27 percent complete in late June, 10 percentage points behind 1997 but nearly equal the five-year average. The Georgia peach crop, at 70.0 million pounds, is also unchanged from the June 1 forecast but still less than half of last year's production. Picking progressed to about two-thirds complete by late June, nearly equal last year and the five-year average. Pennsylvania and New Jersey each expect to produce more peaches than Georgia this year. The condition of peaches in the southern areas of Pennsylvania is rated mostly good to excellent and good to fair elsewhere in the State. Bloom was very heavy for early varieties in New Jersey and light for later varieties. Scattered frost damage and lack of bee pollination were widespread. In Michigan, early peach harvest has begun and maturity is about two weeks ahead of schedule. However, poor pollination has reduced yields. Harvest is also active in North Carolina and ahead of 1997. While the overall quality of the peaches is good, earlier varieties were damaged from the low March temperatures. Alternately, despite the high temperatures and low rainfall in Texas, the overall condition of the crop is good. Elsewhere around the country, growers report the crop is progressing normally or slightly ahead of schedule in Idaho, Indiana, Missouri, Ohio, Oregon, and Washington and about two weeks ahead in New York. Production in Tennessee was affected by an earlier freeze. Heavy fruit set is reported in Louisiana, Texas, and Virginia, and earlier hail damage in parts of West Virginia has been offset by favorable conditions in other producing areas. Arkansas and Kansas growers had peaches which suffered isolated damage from spring frosts. California Grapes: California's all grape production for 1998 is forecast at 6.05 million tons, 9 percent below 1997 but 21 percent above two years ago. Wine grapes represent 46 percent of the total, raisin grapes 41 percent, and table grapes almost 13 percent. Unlike the almost ideal 1997 crop year, the cool, wet 1998 spring slowed maturity of all the grapes and picking is two to three weeks behind normal. Production of all three types ranges between 5 and 13 percent below 1997. Wine grape production, at 2.80 million tons, is 5 percent below the record high 1997 crop but 26 percent above the 1996 crop. The crop needs higher tempera- tures to develop the grape bunches. The forecast for the raisin type varieties is 2.50 million tons, down 13 percent from 1997 but 14 percent above 1996. Picking of the Thompson Seedless variety for fresh use continues in the Coachella Valley. Harvest did not begin there until mid-June, about two weeks later than normal. Maturity in the San Joaquin Valley is approximately two to three weeks behind normal. The bunches are small with undeveloped berries. Table grape production is forecast at 750,000 tons, down 9 percent from last year but 27 percent above 1996. Picking of the crop in the Coachella Valley began around May 20, about three weeks behind normal. Harvest activity was heavy in June with Perlette and Flame Seedless the main varieties picked. Picking is not expected to start in the San Joaquin Valley until mid-July, about two weeks behind normal. Apricots: The final forecast for the 1998 apricot crop is 130,200 tons, down 6 percent from 1997 but up almost two-thirds from the 1996 crop. California growers had 96 percent of the crop, and Utah and Washington growers the remainder. Utah growers will produce about 200 tons in 1998 after frost destroyed the entire crop in 1997. California's apricot crop is forecast at 125,000 tons, unchanged from the June forecast but 5 percent below 1997. There was a good fruit set resulting from a break in the heavy rains during bloom. The crop is 10 to 14 days later than average allowing the fruit to mature in size. In Washington, freezing tempera- tures during the bloom period and later cool weather caused some pollination problems. Walnuts: The 1998 California walnut crop is forecast at 255,000 tons (in-shell basis) on 177,200 bearing acres. This is down 5 percent from last year's record production of 269,000 tons. The mid-season varieties were reported to be average with moderate blight occurrence. Of the late varieties, Hartley which makes up 30 percent of the bearing acreage, reported to be average but down from last year. The Chandler variety is also off from last year as those trees were hit with heavy rain during the 7 to 10 days of blooming. Almonds: California's 1998 almond objective measurement production forecast is 540 million meat pounds. This is down 2 percent from May's subjective forecast and off 29 percent from last year's record 757 million meat pounds. Bearing acreage is 425,000 acres for 1998. Cool spring temperatures and intermittent rains delayed the crop by approximately two weeks. Yields are expected to be about 1,270 pounds per bearing acre, which is 580 pounds below last year's record of 1,850 pounds. Yields are also expected to be highly variable by region with light nut counts on some trees and heavy nut counts reported on others. Grapefruit: The July 1 forecast of the 1997-98 U.S. grapefruit crop is 2.63 million tons, unchanged from last month but down 9 percent from last season. Florida's grapefruit forecast is 49.5 million boxes (2.11 million tons), the same as last month but down 11 percent from a year ago. There was limited utilization in June as the high heat curtailed usability of fruit. The white seedless forecast remains at 18.3 million boxes and the forecast of colored seedless varieties continues at 30.6 million boxes. The seedy grapefruit production is expected to total 650,000 boxes. The California grapefruit forecast is 9.00 million boxes (302,000 tons), unchanged from the previous forecast but up 10 percent from the previous season. Harvesting is active in non-desert areas of California. Very good quality is reported. Arizona's grapefruit forecast, also unchanged from the earlier forecast, is 800,000 boxes (27,000 tons), which is down 11 percent from a year ago. The Texas grapefruit forecast of 4.80 million boxes (192,000 tons) is carried forward from June. Lemons: The 1997-98 lemon crop is forecast at 935,000 tons, unchanged from the last forecast in April but 9 percent higher than the 1996-97 crop. California production in 1997-98 is forecast at 22.0 million boxes (836,000 tons), unchanged from the April forecast but 10 percent more than last year. In the Central Valley, shippers are packing exports with good results and domestic grades are good to fair. In the South Coastal area, all grades for export and domestic continue to look good. Statewide defects include flatsides, tip bruising, and windscar. The Arizona lemon crop forecast remains at 2.60 million boxes (99,000 tons), the same as the previous forecast and the same as last season's production. Florida Citrus: June was one of the hottest and driest months on record. Several days during the month set single day high temperature records. In only one or two years since records have been kept has there been so little rain during the month. Many recording stations in the citrus belt received less than two inches of rain during June. Growers and caretakers irrigated continuously to keep groves and new trees alive and in good condition. Non-irrigated groves showed signs of stress, yellowing, wilting, and leaf loss. Some groves on the sand hills without irrigation may lose a lot of their foliage and some of the new crop fruit. Only a few new reset trees may die of the drought and they will probably be replanted. Valencia orange harvest slowed by the end of the month as supplies were running out. Several small juice plants are still accepting oranges. Grapefruit harvest was completed by the end of June as most processors finished processing grapefruit. Wildfires in northern Brevard County did not reach any commercial groves and no reports of loss have been received. Caretakers were very busy cutting and removing cover crops for fire protection. A few growers were spraying and fertilizing. Hedging and topping continue in most areas when equipment is available. California Citrus: Navel orange harvest was completed during June. Valencia orange picking slowed due to normal competition from stone fruits. Approximately one third of the Valencia crop has been picked. Good to excellent quality has been reported. Picking of grapefruit in the non-desert areas was active in June with good quality reported. The harvest of lemons continued in the San Joaquin Valley and South Coast areas. Grades were reported good. California Fruit and Nuts: Maturity of fruit and nut crops advanced during June with warmer, drier weather. A hail storm caused damage to some fruit and nut orchards in Fresno and Tulare Counties. Grape growers applied sulfur to vineyards to control the mildew problem. Other vineyard activities included discing for weed control and spraying insecticides for leafrollers. Grape producers in the Coachella Valley harvested Perlette, Flame Seedless, and Thompson Seedless varieties for fresh use. San Joaquin Valley stone fruit growers were busy picking nectarines, plums, freestone peaches, and apricots. Maturity is approximately three weeks behind normal. Growers were concerned about brown rot, mold, and split pits. Strawberry harvest was active in June with improved quality. Papayas: Hawaii fresh papaya production is estimated at 2.63 million pounds for June, 17 percent lower than May and 5 percent lower than a year ago. Area devoted to papaya production totaled 3,625 acres in June, 13 percent higher than in May but 31 percent lower than a year ago. Harvested area, totaling 2,460 acres, was 14 percent higher than last month and 9 percent higher than last June. June weather conditions were a mix of sunshine and showers over major papaya producing areas. Smaller sized fruit was harvested from nonirrigated orchards which experienced dry conditions during the early part of the year. All Potatoes: Potato farmers across the United States have planted an estimated 1.40 million acres of potatoes in all four 1998 seasons, up 3 percent from last year but 4 percent below the 1996 record high. Area for harvest is forecast at 1.38 million acres, a gain of 4 percent from a year ago but 4 percent below two years ago. Winter plantings were down 1 percent, the spring season gained 6 percent, summer jumped 8 percent, and fall potatoes, with 87 percent of total U.S. planted acreage, increased 2 percent. Fall Potatoes: Area planted to fall potatoes in 1998 is estimated at 1.22 million acres, up 2 percent from last year but 4 percent below the 1996 record high. Harvest is expected from 1.20 million acres, up 3 percent from a year ago but 4 percent below 1996. Planting started earlier than normal in most areas east of the Rockies. Early growth placed the crop ahead of schedule by June 1. Wet June weather slowed progress and restricted cultivation and chemical applications. Crop progress remains earlier than normal. In North Dakota, planting progress was early and potato plants were 3 inches taller than normal on July 1. The planting season in Wisconsin went well, but strong storms and rain have disrupted field and chemical applications in some locations. The Michigan crop is a week ahead of normal with harvest to start soon. Warm, dry conditions in Maine during planting got the crop off to a quick start and June weather conditions promoted excellent growth. Western potatoes are generally late. Idaho finished planting a week or ten days late. Warm June weather helped catch up. Oregon's planting was late on the west side of the State but on time in the Umatilla Basin where early harvest is underway. Cold, wet weather kept farmers out of the California potato fields most of the spring and some fear lower yields from the shortened season. Colorado potatoes appear to be late in their development. The Washington crop is off to a good start because of an early planting season. Eastern States have estimated planted acres at 111,400 acres, down 7 percent from last year and 13 percent below 1996. Maine continued to lose potato acreage with an 11 percent decline this year. Rhode Island's acreage fell 13 percent. Pennsylvania, New York, and Massachusetts remained the same as last year. Central States planted an estimated 380,500 acres of fall potatoes this year, up 5 percent from last year but 1 percent below 1996. Plantings in South Dakota jumped 11 percent from a year ago. Minnesota and Wisconsin each increased 6 percent, while Michigan and North Dakota gained 4 percent from last year's levels. Nebraska plantings were up 3 percent, Indiana stayed the same, but Ohio's acreage dropped 6 percent. Western States potato plantings were estimated at 726,100 acres in 1998, up 3 percent from a year ago but 4 percent below two years ago. Idaho farmers planted 4 percent more acres to potatoes than they did last year. Oregon and Washington each gained 3 percent. Montana increased 2 percent while Nevada and Wyoming stayed the same. California, Colorado, and New Mexico were off 2 per- cent and Utah dropped 13 percent. Summer Potatoes: Production of summer potatoes is forecast at 19.3 million cwt, up 8 percent from last year but 1 percent below 1996. Farmers expect to harvest 71,800 acres during the summer season, up 9 percent from a year ago but 4 percent below two years ago. The average yield, forecast at 269 cwt per acre, is down 3 cwt from last year but 8 cwt above 1996. Heavy rains during the spring slowed planting and potato growth along the East Coast. Some acreage was replanted in New Jersey. Poor yields are expected in North Carolina. Harvest is underway on the Delmarva Peninsula. Virginia farmers lost some seed because of wet soils. Illinois and Iowa have had to contend with wet soils and some fields were lost to flooding in Iowa. Harvest is nearing completion in Missouri's Bootheel area and will start soon in the State's northwestern counties. Hot, dry weather may hurt potatoes in New Mexico and Texas. California's summer potatoes had to contend with excessive moisture from spring rains but a good crop appears likely. Reliability of July 1 Wheat Production Forecast Survey Procedures: Objective yield and farm operator surveys were conducted between June 25 and July 2 to gather information on expected yield as of July 1. The objective yield survey for winter wheat was conducted in 10 States that accounted for 72 percent of the 1997 production. Plots were revisited to make counts and harvest mature samples. In late fields, counts such as number of stalks, heads in late boot, and number of emerged heads were made to predict the number of heads that would be harvested. A 5-year historical head weight is used until the crop matures to the point that heads can be clipped, threshed, and weighed. The number of heads times the weight of the heads in a sample plot can then be expanded to an estimate of yield per acre. The 5-year average harvesting loss is subtracted to obtain a net yield. The plots are revisited each month until the crop reaches maturity and or harvested on the final visit. The farm operator survey included a sample of about 14,000 producers representing all major production areas. These producers were selected from respondents to an earlier acreage survey and were asked about the probable yield on their operation. These growers will be surveyed throughout the growing season to provide indications of average yields as the season progresses. Estimating Procedures: National and State level objective yield and grower reported indications were reviewed for reasonableness and consistency with historical estimates. The indications were also reviewed considering weather patterns and crop progress compared to previous month and previous years. Each State Statistical Office submits their analysis of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey indications and the State analysis to prepare the published July 1 forecasts. Revision Policy: The July 1 production forecast will not be revised; instead, a new forecast will be made each month throughout the growing season. End-of-season estimates are made after harvest. At the end of the marketing season, a balance sheet is calculated using carryover stocks, production, exports, millings, feeding, and ending stocks. Revisions are then made if data relationships warrant changes. Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the July 1 winter wheat production forecast, the "Root Mean Square Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. This is done by expressing the deviation between the July 1 production forecast and the final estimate as a percentage of the final estimate, and averaging the squared percentage deviations for the 1978-1997 20-year period; the square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent years. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the July 1 winter wheat production forecast is 2.3 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current production forecast of 1.90 billion bushels will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 2.3 percent or approximately 44 million bushels. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 4.0 percent or approximately 76 million bushels. Differences between the July 1 winter wheat production forecast and the final estimate during the past 10 years have averaged 26 million bushels, ranging from 6 million to 102 million bushels. The July 1 forecast has been below the final estimate 5 times and above 5 times. This does not imply that the July 1 winter wheat forecast this year is likely to understate or overstate final production. Report Features The next "Crop Production" report will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET on August 12, 1998. Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. C. Ray Halley, Chief (202) 720-2127 Field Crops Section Bill Dowdy, Head (202) 720-3843 Kevin Barnes - Soybeans, Minor Oilseeds (202) 720-7369 Rhonda Brandt- Corn (202) 720-7621 Doug Hartwig - Hay (202) 720-8843 Mark E. Miller - Oats, Sugar Crops, Weekly Crop Weather (202) 720-7621 Roger Latham - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings (202) 720-5944 Jerry Ramirez - Barley, Sorghum (202) 690-3234 Herman Ellison - Peanuts, Rice (202) 720-7688 Vaughn Siegenthaler - Wheat, Rye (202) 720-8068 Fruit, Vegetable & Special Crops Section Vince Matthews, Head (202) 720-3843 Arvin Budge - Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes (202) 720-4285 Dave DeWalt - Citrus, Tropical Fruits (202) 720-5412 Howard Hill - Cherries, Berries, Prunes, Plums, Cranberries, Grapes, Maple Syrup (202) 720-7235 Elizabeth Wallingsford - Fresh and Processing Vegetables, Onions (202) 720-2157 Dave Ranek - Nuts, Floriculture (202) 720-4215 Linda Simpson - Noncitrus Fruits, Mint, Dry Beans & Peas, Mushrooms (202) 690-0270 Debbie Williams - Apples, Strawberries, Tobacco (202) 720-4288 Harry Nishimoto - Hops (360) 902-1940 The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination in all its programs and activities on the basis of race, color, national origin, gender, religion, age, disability, political beliefs, sexual orientation, and marital or family status. (Not all prohibited bases apply to all programs.) Persons with disabilities who require alternative means for communication of program information (braille, large print, audiotape, etc.) should contact the USDA's TARGET Center at 202-720-2600 (voice and TDD). To file a complaint of discrimination, write USDA, Director, Office of Civil Rights, Room 326-W, Whitten Building, 14th and Independence Avenue, SW, Washington, DC, 20250-9410, or call (202) 720-5964 (voice or TDD). USDA is an equal opportunity provider and employer. ACCESS TO REPORTS!! For your convenience, there are several ways to obtain NASS reports, data products, and services: INTERNET ACCESS All NASS reports are available free of charge on the worldwide Internet. For access, connect to the Internet and go to the NASS Home Page at: http://www.usda.gov/nass/. Select "Today's Reports" or Publications and then Reports by Calendar or Publications and then Search, by Title or Subject. 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