Cr Pr 2-2 (9-98) Crop Production National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released September 11, 1998, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Crop Production" call (202) 720-2127, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. Corn production up 2 percent Soybeans up 3 percent All Cotton down 5 percent Corn grain production is forecast at 9.74 billion bushels, up 2 percent from last month and up 4 percent from 1997. Based on September 1 conditions, yields are expected to average 132.0 bushels per acre, up 2.0 bushels from last month and up 5 bushels from a year ago. If realized, this would be the second largest production and the second highest yield on record. Acreage for harvest is estimated at 73.8 million acres, unchanged from last month and virtually unchanged from 1997. All cotton production is forecast at 13.6 million bales, down 5 percent from last month and down 28 percent from 1997. Yield is expected to average 614 pounds per harvested acre, down 66 pounds from last year. Hot and dry conditions continued during the month in most of the cotton belt, which lowered yield potential. Arkansas' production was lowered 210,000 bales from August, and both California and Texas were lowered 100,000 bales. Upland harvested acres were lowered 95,000 from last month, 45,000 acres in California and 50,000 acres in Georgia. Soybean production is forecast at a record high 2.91 billion bushels, up 3 percent from August 1, and up 7 percent from last year's record of 2.73 billion bushels. The yield forecast, at 40.6 bushels per acre, increased 1.1 bushels from last month and is 1.6 bushels above the 1997 final yield. If realized, this will be the second highest yield on record. The record yield of 41.4 bushels was set in 1994. Acreage for harvest is estimated at a record 71.6 million acres, unchanged from August 1 but up 2 percent from 1997. All wheat production is placed at 2.56 billion bushels, up 1 percent from the August forecast and 2 percent from 1997. The U.S. yield is forecast at 43.3 bushels per acre. This is up 0.3 bushels from last month and is a new record high yield. Other spring wheat production is forecast at 519 million bushels, up 2 percent from last month, but down 7 percent from last season. The final forecast of U.S. average yield is 34.9 bushels per acre. This is 0.7 bushels per acre better than a month ago. There were no area changes. Hard Red Spring production is up 2 percent from August at 467 million bushels. White Spring production is down about 2 percent. Minnesota growers have harvested a better yielding crop than previously expected. Both the Montana and North Dakota crops are nearing harvest completion. The South Dakota harvest is finished. Durum wheat production is forecast at 132 million bushels, up 4 percent from last month and 53 percent more than in 1997. This is the biggest Durum crop since 1982. The U.S. yield is now forecast at 36.8 bushels per acre, up 1.6 from last month and second only to the record high set in 1992. As of September 6, 83 percent of North Dakota's crop was harvested. This is about 3 weeks ahead of average. California Navel Oranges: Production for 1998-99 is forecast at 34.0 million boxes, down 23 percent from last season's production of 44.0 million boxes. This initial forecast of the 1998-99 season is based on an objective measurement survey conducted in the California Central Valley. Fruit set and size are considerably less than last season. Crop development was delayed by the wet, cool spring. This report was approved on September 11, 1998. Acting Secretary of Agriculture August Schumacher, Jr. Agricultural Statistics Board Chairperson Rich Allen Contents Page TablesNarratives Report Highlights. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . -- 1 Corn for Grain . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4 34 Corn Chart . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5 -- Sorghum for Grain. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5 35 Barley . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6 35 Wheat, All . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .7 -- Wheat, Durum . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .8 35 Wheat, Other Spring. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .8 35 Wheat, by Class. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9 -- Rice . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9 35 Soybeans for Beans . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 36 Peanuts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 36 Cottonseed . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 -- Cotton . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 37 Potatoes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 38 Tobacco. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 38 Oranges. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 -- Sugarbeets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 39 Sugarcane. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 39 Papayas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 39 Nuts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 40 Crop Summary (Domestic Units) Area Planted and Harvested . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 -- Yield and Production . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22 -- Fruits and Nuts Production (Domestic Units). . . . . . . . . 23 -- Crop Summary (Metric Units) Area Planted and Harvested . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24 -- Yield and Production . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 -- Fruits and Nuts Production (Metric Units). . . . . . . . . . 26 -- Corn for Grain Plant Population per Acre . . . . . . . . . . 27 -- Spring Wheat Head Population per Square Foot . . . . . . . . 28 -- Soybeans Pods With Beans per 18 Square Feet. . . . . . . . . 29 -- Cotton Cumulative Boll Counts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 -- Crop Moisture Maps . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . -- 31 August Weather Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . -- 33 General Crop Comments. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . -- 34 Reliability. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . -- 42 Contacts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . -- 44 Corn for Grain: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 1997 and Forecasted September 1, 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production :------------------------------------------------------------------------- State: : : : 1998 : : : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 :-------------------: 1997 : 1998 : : : : Aug 1 : Sep 1 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -- 1,000 Acres -- -------- Bushels -------- --- 1,000 Bushels -- : AL : 265 290 87.0 65.0 60.0 23,055 17,400 AZ 1/ : 50 25 170.0 170.0 170.0 8,500 4,250 AR 1/ : 175 210 125.0 115.0 115.0 21,875 24,150 CA : 260 255 170.0 160.0 160.0 44,200 40,800 CO : 1,030 1,070 146.0 142.0 140.0 150,380 149,800 CT 2/ : DE : 144 144 110.0 100.0 100.0 15,840 14,400 FL 1/ : 80 55 80.0 60.0 60.0 6,400 3,300 GA : 500 400 110.0 90.0 88.0 55,000 35,200 ID 1/ : 40 50 155.0 160.0 160.0 6,200 8,000 IL : 11,050 10,400 129.0 143.0 145.0 1,425,450 1,508,000 IN : 5,850 5,650 123.0 136.0 139.0 719,550 785,350 IA : 12,000 12,400 138.0 143.0 143.0 1,656,000 1,773,200 KS : 2,700 2,850 143.0 143.0 143.0 386,100 407,550 KY : 1,170 1,250 103.0 125.0 125.0 120,510 156,250 LA 1/ : 490 650 117.0 80.0 80.0 57,330 52,000 ME 2/ : MD : 415 420 90.0 105.0 100.0 37,350 42,000 MA 2/ : MI : 2,250 2,000 117.0 104.0 102.0 263,250 204,000 MN : 6,450 6,750 133.0 135.0 141.0 857,850 951,750 MS 1/ : 470 515 107.0 80.0 80.0 50,290 41,200 MO : 2,870 2,700 116.0 121.0 121.0 332,920 326,700 MT 1/ : 14 15 135.0 130.0 130.0 1,890 1,950 NE : 8,725 8,550 132.0 141.0 145.0 1,151,700 1,239,750 NH 2/ : NJ 1/ : 93 98 108.0 124.0 124.0 10,044 12,152 NM 1/ : 85 75 175.0 170.0 170.0 14,875 12,750 NY : 650 700 116.0 110.0 114.0 75,400 79,800 NC : 870 780 89.0 75.0 70.0 77,430 54,600 ND : 605 825 99.0 93.0 98.0 59,895 80,850 OH : 3,450 3,200 134.0 140.0 143.0 462,300 457,600 OK 1/ : 190 240 140.0 120.0 120.0 26,600 28,800 OR 1/ : 22 28 195.0 180.0 180.0 4,290 5,040 PA : 985 1,050 99.0 108.0 105.0 97,515 110,250 RI 2/ : SC : 335 275 97.0 45.0 40.0 32,495 11,000 SD : 3,400 3,850 98.0 100.0 106.0 333,200 408,100 TN : 650 690 102.0 105.0 105.0 66,300 72,450 TX : 1,800 1,850 138.0 95.0 95.0 248,400 175,750 UT 1/ : 23 24 135.0 133.0 133.0 3,105 3,192 VT 2/ : VA : 325 360 93.0 95.0 90.0 30,225 32,400 WA 1/ : 95 95 190.0 185.0 185.0 18,050 17,575 WV 1/ : 37 40 95.0 105.0 105.0 3,515 4,200 WI : 3,050 2,900 132.0 125.0 130.0 402,600 377,000 WY 1/ : 57 60 135.0 124.0 124.0 7,695 7,440 : US : 73,720 73,789 127.0 130.0 132.0 9,365,574 9,737,949 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast. 2/ Not estimated. Sorghum for Grain: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 1997 and Forecasted September 1, 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production :------------------------------------------------------------------------- State: : : : 1998 : : : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 :-------------------: 1997 : 1998 : : : : Aug 1 : Sep 1 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres -------- Bushels ------- 1,000 Bushels : AL 1/ : 8 6 50.0 40.0 40.0 400 240 AR : 150 130 74.0 67.0 62.0 11,100 8,060 CO : 140 150 40.0 48.0 48.0 5,600 7,200 GA 1/ : 40 30 40.0 37.0 37.0 1,600 1,110 IL : 155 145 91.0 88.0 88.0 14,105 12,760 KS : 3,500 3,300 78.0 77.0 77.0 273,000 254,100 KY 1/ : 12 17 75.0 83.0 83.0 900 1,411 LA : 98 100 77.0 65.0 65.0 7,546 6,500 MS : 33 28 75.0 75.0 65.0 2,475 1,820 MO : 440 340 93.0 85.0 85.0 40,920 28,900 NE : 750 700 82.0 95.0 98.0 61,500 68,600 NM : 235 80 44.0 65.0 60.0 10,340 4,800 NC 1/ : 11 14 50.0 60.0 60.0 550 840 OK : 490 350 50.0 50.0 50.0 24,500 17,500 SC 1/ : 4 3 40.0 35.0 35.0 160 105 SD : 160 125 71.0 65.0 65.0 11,360 8,125 TN 1/ : 15 20 80.0 75.0 75.0 1,200 1,500 TX : 3,150 2,300 59.0 46.0 46.0 185,850 105,800 : US : 9,391 7,838 69.5 67.4 67.5 653,106 529,371 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast. Barley: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 1997 and Forecasted September 1, 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production :------------------------------------------------------------------------- State: : : : 1998 : : : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 :-------------------: 1997 : 1998 : : : : Aug 1 : Sep 1 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres -------- Bushels -------- 1,000 Bushels : AZ 1/ : 67 53 102.0 120.0 120.0 6,834 6,360 CA 1/ : 180 140 55.0 60.0 60.0 9,900 8,400 CO : 90 85 112.0 108.0 108.0 10,080 9,180 DE 1/ : 35 30 89.0 67.0 67.0 3,115 2,010 ID : 760 760 79.0 80.0 78.0 60,040 59,280 KS 1/ : 8 9 40.0 45.0 45.0 320 405 KY 1/ : 14 8 75.0 63.0 63.0 1,050 504 MD 1/ : 50 48 80.0 62.0 62.0 4,000 2,976 MI 1/ : 24 28 60.0 52.0 52.0 1,440 1,456 MN : 540 450 51.0 57.0 57.0 27,540 25,650 MT : 1,200 1,300 53.0 52.0 52.0 63,600 67,600 NE 1/ : 8 8 51.0 46.0 46.0 408 368 NV 1/ : 4 4 105.0 95.0 95.0 420 380 NJ 1/ : 4 4 75.0 52.0 52.0 300 208 NC 1/ : 20 20 70.0 63.0 63.0 1,400 1,260 ND : 2,250 1,930 45.0 55.0 55.0 101,250 106,150 OK 1/ : 8 5 42.0 45.0 45.0 336 225 OR : 120 140 69.0 77.0 77.0 8,280 10,780 PA 1/ : 75 75 68.0 68.0 68.0 5,100 5,100 SC 1/ : 3 1 60.0 52.0 52.0 180 52 SD : 130 125 38.0 50.0 47.0 4,940 5,875 TX 1/ : 5 5 47.0 35.0 35.0 235 175 UT : 95 85 86.0 89.0 87.0 8,170 7,395 VA 1/ : 65 75 85.0 64.0 64.0 5,525 4,800 WA : 490 520 76.0 65.0 65.0 37,240 33,800 WI : 65 65 55.0 52.0 52.0 3,575 3,380 WY : 115 105 80.0 82.0 82.0 9,200 8,610 : US : 6,425 6,078 58.3 61.6 61.3 374,478 372,379 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast. All Wheat: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 1997 and Forecasted September 1, 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production :------------------------------------------------------------------------- State: : : : 1998 : : : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 :-------------------: 1997 : 1998 : : : : Aug 1 : Sep 1 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -- 1,000 Acres -- -------- Bushels -------- --- 1,000 Bushels -- : AL 1/ : 100 90 42.0 45.0 45.0 4,200 4,050 AZ 1/ : 98 152 89.5 99.5 99.5 8,775 15,120 AR 1/ : 820 900 48.0 51.0 51.0 39,360 45,900 CA 1/ : 544 545 80.3 77.8 77.8 43,680 42,425 CO 1/ : 2,900 2,798 32.7 39.6 39.6 94,700 110,898 DE 1/ : 73 73 73.0 57.0 57.0 5,329 4,161 FL 1/ : 15 13 39.0 41.0 41.0 585 533 GA 1/ : 360 240 44.0 43.0 43.0 15,840 10,320 ID : 1,440 1,290 79.2 80.8 80.0 114,060 103,180 IL 1/ : 1,150 1,200 61.0 48.0 48.0 70,150 57,600 IN 1/ : 660 650 58.0 58.0 58.0 38,280 37,700 IA 1/ : 27 38 42.0 40.0 40.0 1,134 1,520 KS 1/ : 11,000 10,100 46.0 49.0 49.0 506,000 494,900 KY 1/ : 530 550 54.0 44.0 44.0 28,620 24,200 LA 1/ : 115 90 37.0 45.0 45.0 4,255 4,050 MD 1/ : 215 215 68.0 55.0 55.0 14,620 11,825 MI 1/ : 540 570 62.0 56.0 56.0 33,480 31,920 MN : 2,465 1,780 32.0 36.8 39.7 78,890 70,635 MS 1/ : 175 140 43.0 44.0 44.0 7,525 6,160 MO 1/ : 1,040 1,230 55.0 46.0 46.0 57,200 56,580 MT : 5,930 5,190 31.3 31.3 31.3 185,630 162,690 NE 1/ : 1,900 1,830 37.0 46.0 46.0 70,300 84,180 NV 1/ : 16 14 98.4 100.0 100.0 1,575 1,400 NJ 1/ : 34 45 60.0 48.0 48.0 2,040 2,160 NM 1/ : 285 265 35.0 28.0 28.0 9,975 7,420 NY 1/ : 135 135 56.0 54.0 54.0 7,560 7,290 NC 1/ : 670 680 52.0 42.0 42.0 34,840 28,560 ND : 11,025 9,465 24.3 30.4 31.7 267,695 300,080 OH 1/ : 1,090 1,160 63.0 64.0 64.0 68,670 74,240 OK 1/ : 5,400 5,400 33.0 38.0 38.0 178,200 205,200 OR 1/ : 970 905 65.4 67.8 67.8 63,430 61,395 PA 1/ : 175 190 52.0 53.0 53.0 9,100 10,070 SC 1/ : 300 240 50.0 32.0 32.0 15,000 7,680 SD : 3,469 3,289 28.6 36.7 36.7 99,213 120,754 TN 1/ : 370 370 45.0 41.0 41.0 16,650 15,170 TX 1/ : 4,100 4,000 29.0 36.0 36.0 118,900 144,000 UT 1/ : 189 177 48.5 50.8 50.8 9,174 8,985 VA 1/ : 250 240 68.0 50.0 50.0 17,000 12,000 WA : 2,595 2,565 64.8 63.6 63.4 168,080 162,555 WV 1/ : 9 9 54.0 55.0 55.0 486 495 WI 1/ : 142 142 56.9 54.1 54.1 8,075 7,677 WY 1/ : 256 236 32.3 30.0 30.0 8,276 7,091 : US : 63,577 59,211 39.7 43.0 43.3 2,526,552 2,564,769 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast. Durum Wheat: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 1997 and Forecasted September 1, 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production :------------------------------------------------------------------------ State : : : : 1998 : : : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 :-------------------: 1997 : 1998 : : : : Aug 1 : Sep 1 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres -------- Bushels ------- -- 1,000 Bushels -- : AZ 1/ : 89 144 90.0 100.0 100.0 8,010 14,400 CA 1/ : 144 175 95.0 105.0 105.0 13,680 18,375 MN : 5 5 34.0 35.0 37.0 170 185 MT : 280 440 26.0 26.0 26.0 7,280 11,440 ND : 2,570 2,800 22.0 29.0 31.0 56,540 86,800 SD : 19 19 27.0 24.0 26.0 513 494 : US : 3,107 3,583 27.7 35.2 36.8 86,193 131,694 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast. Other Spring Wheat: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 1997 and Forecasted September 1, 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production :------------------------------------------------------------------------ State : : : : 1998 : : : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 :-------------------: 1997 : 1998 : : : : Aug 1 : Sep 1 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres -------- Bushels ------- -- 1,000 Bushels -- : CO 1/ : 50 48 70.0 76.0 76.0 3,500 3,648 ID : 570 520 78.0 79.0 77.0 44,460 40,040 MN : 2,400 1,720 32.0 37.0 40.0 76,800 68,800 MT : 4,200 3,500 29.0 30.0 30.0 121,800 105,000 NV 1/ : 5 8 95.0 100.0 100.0 475 800 ND : 8,400 6,600 25.0 31.0 32.0 210,000 211,200 OR 1/ : 130 115 55.0 53.0 53.0 7,150 6,095 SD : 2,400 1,850 28.0 32.0 32.0 67,200 59,200 UT 1/ : 29 27 46.0 55.0 55.0 1,334 1,485 WA : 445 465 54.0 48.0 47.0 24,030 21,855 WI 1/ : 7 7 35.0 36.0 36.0 245 252 WY 1/ : 21 11 36.0 31.0 31.0 756 341 : US : 18,657 14,871 29.9 34.2 34.9 557,750 518,716 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast. Wheat: Production by Class, United States, 1996-97 and Forecasted September 1, 1998 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Winter : Spring : :-------------------------------------------------------------: Year : Hard : Soft : : Hard : : : Total : Red : Red : White : Red : White : Durum : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Bushels : 1996 : 761,412 422,019 293,627 630,866 61,119 116,090 2,285,133 1997 :1,120,891 483,890 277,828 500,643 57,107 86,193 2,526,552 1998 :1,200,027 448,664 265,668 466,993 51,723 131,694 2,564,769 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Wheat class estimates are based on varietal acreage survey data available for all wheat producing States. Unless unusual situations dictate, the previous end-of-season class percentages are used throughout the forecast season. Rice: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 1997 and Forecasted September 1, 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production :------------------------------------------------------------------------- State: : : : 1998 : : : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 :-------------------: 1997 : 1998 : : : : Aug 1 : Sep 1 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres --------- Pounds -------- ---- 1,000 Cwt --- : AR : 1,370 1,525 5,650 5,500 5,600 77,370 85,400 CA : 510 478 8,300 7,700 7,800 42,341 37,284 LA : 548 588 4,630 4,200 4,450 25,364 26,166 MS : 238 218 5,800 5,400 5,400 13,804 11,772 MO 1/ : 109 124 5,300 5,100 5,100 5,777 6,324 TX : 259 254 5,500 5,600 5,600 14,240 14,224 : US : 3,034 3,187 5,896 5,576 5,685 178,896 181,170 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast. Rice: Production by Class, United States, 1996-97 and Forecasted September 1, 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : Year : Long Grain : Medium Grain : Short Grain : All : : : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : 1996 : 113,351 56,901 1,069 171,321 1997 : 121,647 55,833 1,416 178,896 1998 1/ : 132,934 46,597 1,639 181,170 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Indicated September 1, 1998, rice class estimates are based on a five-year average of class percentages. The class percentages are adjusted as data become available through the growing season. Soybeans for Beans: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 1997 and Forecasted September 1, 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production :------------------------------------------------------------------------- State: : : : 1998 : : : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 :-------------------: 1997 : 1998 : : : : Aug 1 : Sep 1 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -- 1,000 Acres -- -------- Bushels ------- --- 1,000 Bushels -- : AL : 385 320 25.0 25.0 25.0 9,625 8,000 AR : 3,550 3,350 30.5 28.0 28.0 108,275 93,800 DE : 219 215 29.0 29.0 26.0 6,351 5,590 FL 1/ : 38 35 26.0 23.0 23.0 988 805 GA : 410 290 21.0 20.0 22.0 8,610 6,380 IL : 9,950 10,650 43.0 45.0 48.0 427,850 511,200 IN : 5,400 5,600 44.0 45.0 45.0 237,600 252,000 IA : 10,400 10,450 46.5 47.0 50.0 483,600 522,500 KS : 2,400 2,500 37.0 38.0 36.0 88,800 90,000 KY : 1,280 1,230 34.5 36.0 35.0 44,160 43,050 LA : 1,350 1,100 29.0 22.0 22.0 39,150 24,200 MD : 525 460 28.0 29.0 26.0 14,700 11,960 MI : 1,890 1,890 38.5 36.0 36.0 72,765 68,040 MN : 6,700 6,900 39.0 39.0 40.0 261,300 276,000 MS : 2,070 1,950 31.0 27.0 27.0 64,170 52,650 MO : 4,850 5,100 36.5 38.0 38.0 177,025 193,800 NE : 3,450 3,750 41.0 45.0 49.0 141,450 183,750 NJ 1/ : 132 118 30.0 30.0 30.0 3,960 3,540 NY 2/ : 97 37.0 37.0 3,589 NC : 1,330 1,425 29.0 27.0 26.0 38,570 37,050 ND : 1,190 1,690 29.0 27.0 27.0 34,510 45,630 OH : 4,490 4,490 44.0 44.0 44.0 197,560 197,560 OK 1/ : 320 380 30.0 23.0 23.0 9,600 8,740 PA 1/ : 365 390 39.0 40.0 40.0 14,235 15,600 SC : 610 540 22.0 19.0 19.0 13,420 10,260 SD : 3,450 3,550 35.0 36.0 38.0 120,750 134,900 TN : 1,280 1,200 34.0 35.0 35.0 43,520 42,000 TX : 400 370 28.0 25.0 25.0 11,200 9,250 VA : 490 480 23.0 25.0 22.0 11,270 10,560 WI : 960 1,050 44.0 42.0 44.0 42,240 46,200 : US : 69,884 71,570 39.0 39.5 40.6 2,727,254 2,908,604 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast. 2/ NY included beginning with the 1998 crop year. Peanuts: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 1997 and Forecasted September 1, 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production 1/ :------------------------------------------------------------------------- State: : : : 1998 : : : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 :-------------------: 1997 : 1998 : : : : Aug 1 : Sep 1 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : --- 1,000 Acres -- --------- Pounds -------- --- 1,000 Pounds --- : AL : 193.0 196.0 1,930 1,900 2,000 372,490 392,000 FL : 84.0 81.0 2,715 2,400 2,400 228,060 194,400 GA : 519.0 533.0 2,570 2,450 2,500 1,333,830 1,332,500 NM : 17.3 20.0 2,700 2,300 2,500 46,710 50,000 NC : 121.0 125.0 2,720 2,950 2,850 329,120 356,250 OK : 77.0 75.0 2,400 2,200 2,200 184,800 165,000 SC : 10.5 10.5 2,900 2,200 2,100 30,450 22,050 TX 2/ : 315.0 360.0 2,610 2,600 2,550 822,150 918,000 VA : 74.0 75.0 2,560 2,670 2,650 189,440 198,750 : US : 1,410.8 1,475.5 2,507 2,442 2,459 3,537,050 3,628,950 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Estimates comprised of quota and non-quota peanuts. 2/ Texas 1998 planted area revised to 370,000 acres and U.S. to 1,503,000 acres. Cottonseed: Production, United States, 1996-97 and Forecasted September 1, 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Production State :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1996 : 1997 : 1998 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Tons : US : 7,143.5 6,934.6 5,085.0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on a 3-year average lint-seed ratio. Cotton: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Type, State, and United States, 1997 and Forecasted September 1, 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production 1/ Type :---------------------------------------------------------------------- and : : : : 1998 : : State : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 :-------------------: 1997 : 1998 : : : : Aug 1 : Sep 1 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :--- 1,000 Acres -- -------- Pounds -------- 1,000 Bales 2/ : Upland : AL : 442.0 455.0 597 550 600 550.0 569.0 AZ : 324.0 249.0 1,255 1,214 1,157 847.0 600.0 AR : 940.0 855.0 859 764 646 1,683.0 1,150.0 CA : 875.0 650.0 1,202 1,001 997 2,191.0 1,350.0 FL 3/ : 99.0 80.0 577 498 498 119.1 83.0 GA : 1,425.0 1,300.0 646 569 572 1,919.0 1,550.0 KS 3/ : 10.0 14.0 418 501 501 8.7 14.6 LA : 625.0 540.0 757 711 640 986.0 720.0 MS : 970.0 915.0 901 813 787 1,821.0 1,500.0 MO : 375.0 330.0 723 727 625 565.0 430.0 NM 3/ : 66.0 59.0 676 781 781 93.0 96.0 NC : 665.0 695.0 671 640 640 930.0 927.0 OK : 190.0 100.0 462 528 480 183.0 100.0 SC : 285.0 280.0 691 550 540 410.0 315.0 TN : 480.0 445.0 662 636 593 662.0 550.0 TX : 5,150.0 3,300.0 479 451 436 5,140.0 3,000.0 VA 3/ : 100.0 91.0 659 770 770 137.2 146.0 : US :13,021.0 10,358.0 673 634 607 18,245.0 13,100.6 : Amer-Pima: AZ : 22.0 15.0 912 886 832 41.8 26.0 CA : 184.0 184.0 1,141 939 939 437.2 360.0 NM : 11.0 10.5 641 686 731 14.7 16.0 TX : 32.0 37.0 815 843 778 54.3 60.0 : US : 249.0 246.5 1,056 911 900 548.0 462.0 : All : AL : 442.0 455.0 597 550 600 550.0 569.0 AZ : 346.0 264.0 1,233 1,198 1,138 888.8 626.0 AR : 940.0 855.0 859 764 646 1,683.0 1,150.0 CA : 1,059.0 834.0 1,191 988 984 2,628.2 1,710.0 FL 3/ : 99.0 80.0 577 498 498 119.1 83.0 GA : 1,425.0 1,300.0 646 569 572 1,919.0 1,550.0 KS 3/ : 10.0 14.0 418 501 501 8.7 14.6 LA : 625.0 540.0 757 711 640 986.0 720.0 MS : 970.0 915.0 901 813 787 1,821.0 1,500.0 MO : 375.0 330.0 723 727 625 565.0 430.0 NM : 77.0 69.5 671 767 774 107.7 112.0 NC : 665.0 695.0 671 640 640 930.0 927.0 OK : 190.0 100.0 462 528 480 183.0 100.0 SC : 285.0 280.0 691 550 540 410.0 315.0 TN : 480.0 445.0 662 636 593 662.0 550.0 TX : 5,182.0 3,337.0 481 455 440 5,194.3 3,060.0 VA 3/ : 100.0 91.0 659 770 770 137.2 146.0 : US :13,270.0 10,604.5 680 640 614 18,793.0 13,562.6 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Production ginned and to be ginned. 2/ 480-Lb. net weight bales. 3/ Estimates for current year carried forward from previous forecast. Potatoes: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Seasonal Group, State, and United States, 1996-98 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Seasonal : Area Harvested : Yield : Production Group and :----------------------------------------------------------------- State : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 : 1996 : 1997 : 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres --- Cwt --- -------- 1,000 Cwt -------- : Winter 1/ : CA : 6.6 7.0 240 220 1,425 1,584 1,540 FL : 8.8 8.0 175 180 1,848 1,540 1,440 Total : 15.4 15.0 203 199 3,273 3,124 2,980 : Spring 1/ : AL : 1.5 1.7 175 165 304 263 281 AZ : 6.2 8.2 275 235 2,475 1,705 1,927 CA : 20.7 18.9 400 335 7,538 8,280 6,332 FL : 33.3 34.5 199 178 7,765 6,641 6,155 Hastings : 24.5 24.5 210 190 6,325 5,145 4,655 Other FL : 8.8 10.0 170 150 1,440 1,496 1,500 NC : 16.5 17.0 200 185 3,230 3,300 3,145 TX : 8.0 9.5 195 170 1,105 1,560 1,615 Total : 86.2 89.8 252 217 22,417 21,749 19,455 : Summer 2/ : AL : 5.9 5.5 150 130 1,005 885 715 CA : 5.9 6.1 360 370 2,088 2,124 2,257 CO : 7.6 8.2 340 350 3,381 2,584 2,870 DE : 4.2 4.7 230 240 1,248 966 1,128 IL : 4.6 5.6 325 290 1,650 1,495 1,624 IA 1/ : 1.3 1.1 210 190 315 273 209 MD 1/ : 3.4 4.6 280 260 559 952 1,196 MO : 5.8 8.5 255 225 1,633 1,479 1,913 NE : 4.3 4.4 390 365 1,485 1,677 1,606 NJ : 2.2 2.2 270 230 663 594 506 NM : 4.3 3.9 320 280 1,404 1,376 1,092 NC 1/ : 1.2 1.1 100 95 108 120 105 TX : 7.7 7.4 245 380 2,280 1,887 2,812 VA : 7.5 7.5 195 200 1,688 1,463 1,500 Total : 65.9 70.8 271 276 19,507 17,875 19,533 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- See footnotes at end of table. --continued Potatoes: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Seasonal Group, State, and United States, 1996-98 (continued) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Seasonal : Area Harvested : Yield : Production Group and :----------------------------------------------------------------- State : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 : 1996 : 1997 : 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -- 1,000 Acres -- -- Cwt -- ------- 1,000 Cwt ------ : Fall 1/ 2/ 3/ : CA : 10.5 10.3 400 4,600 4,200 CO : 76.9 75.6 325 29,175 24,993 ID : 398.0 403.0 353 142,800 140,314 10 SW Co : 27.0 27.0 470 11,900 12,690 Other ID : 371.0 376.0 344 130,900 127,624 IN : 4.9 4.9 270 1,352 1,323 ME : 71.0 62.0 270 21,175 19,170 MA : 2.8 2.7 270 676 756 MI : 47.5 48.5 300 13,800 14,250 MN : 73.0 77.0 280 24,600 20,440 MT : 10.4 10.6 320 3,213 3,328 NE : 19.3 20.0 390 4,402 7,527 NV : 6.9 6.9 430 3,160 2,967 NM : 6.3 6.2 420 2,560 2,646 NY : 28.0 29.5 275 7,980 7,700 ND : 105.0 125.0 205 28,820 21,525 OH : 5.0 4.8 235 1,275 1,175 OR : 53.5 55.4 508 30,124 27,161 Malheur : 10.9 11.9 440 5,320 4,796 Other OR : 42.6 43.5 525 24,804 22,365 PA : 14.5 14.5 220 4,208 3,190 RI : 0.8 0.7 270 192 216 SD : 4.2 4.6 250 1,344 1,050 UT : 3.1 2.7 295 1,176 915 WA : 152.0 152.0 580 94,990 88,160 WI : 83.5 81.0 355 31,590 29,643 WY : 0.5 0.5 280 224 140 Total : 1,177.6 1,198.4 359 453,436 422,789 : US : 1,345.1 1,374.0 346 498,633 465,537 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast. 2/ 1997 revised. 3/ Estimates for 1998 yield and production for fall potatoes will be published November 10, 1998. Potatoes: Area Planted by Seasonal Group, State, and United States, 1997-98 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Seasonal : : :: Seasonal : : Group and : 1997 : 1998 :: Group and : 1997 : 1998 State : : :: State : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres :: : 1,000 Acres : :: : Winter 1/ : :: Fall 1/ 2/ : CA : 6.6 7.0 :: CA : 10.5 10.3 FL : 9.0 8.5 :: CO : 77.0 75.8 Total : 15.6 15.5 :: ID : 400.0 405.0 : :: 10 SW Co : 27.0 27.0 Spring 1/ : :: Other ID : 373.0 378.0 AL : 1.6 1.8 :: IN : 5.3 5.3 AZ : 6.2 8.2 :: ME : 71.0 63.0 CA : 20.7 18.9 :: MA : 2.8 2.7 FL : 34.5 36.8 :: MI : 48.0 50.0 Hastings : 25.5 26.5 :: MN : 77.0 82.0 Other FL : 9.0 10.3 :: MT : 10.4 10.6 NC : 17.0 17.5 :: NE : 19.6 20.2 TX : 8.3 10.0 :: NV : 7.0 7.0 Total : 88.3 93.2 :: NM : 6.3 6.2 : :: NY : 28.5 30.0 Summer 2/ : :: ND : 125.0 130.0 AL : 6.0 5.6 :: OH : 5.3 5.0 CA : 5.9 6.2 :: OR : 54.5 56.0 CO : 7.8 8.4 :: Malheur Co : 11.0 12.0 DE : 4.3 4.7 :: Other OR : 43.5 44.0 IL : 4.8 5.8 :: PA : 15.0 15.0 IA 1/ : 1.3 1.2 :: RI : 0.8 0.7 MD 1/ : 3.4 4.6 :: SD : 4.5 5.0 MO : 6.4 9.1 :: UT : 3.1 2.7 NE : 4.4 4.5 :: WA : 152.0 152.0 NJ : 2.2 2.2 :: WI : 84.0 83.0 NM : 4.4 4.3 :: WY : 0.5 0.5 NC 1/ : 1.2 1.1 :: Total : 1,208.1 1,218.0 TX : 8.5 8.2 :: : VA : 8.0 8.5 :: US : 1,380.6 1,401.1 Total : 68.6 74.4 :: : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast. 2/ 1997 revised. Tobacco: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 1996-97 and Forecasted September 1, 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production State:------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 : 1996 : 1997 : 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ Acres ----- ---- Pounds --- -------- 1,000 Pounds -------- : CT 1/ : 2,270 2,620 1,586 1,647 3,795 3,600 4,315 FL : 7,300 6,500 2,610 2,300 20,100 19,053 14,950 GA : 43,000 42,000 2,075 2,000 113,620 89,225 84,000 IN : 8,900 8,500 2,100 2,100 14,972 18,690 17,850 KY : 230,500 236,400 2,162 2,176 395,542 498,328 514,330 MD : 8,000 7,500 1,500 1,450 10,000 12,000 10,875 MA 1/ : 1,200 1,215 1,731 1,507 1,212 2,077 1,831 MO 1/ : 3,000 2,800 2,345 2,300 6,021 7,035 6,440 NC : 317,400 264,600 2,304 1,953 585,542 731,419 516,880 OH : 11,400 9,800 1,956 1,910 12,640 22,300 18,718 PA : 7,600 7,200 2,021 1,955 15,464 15,360 14,076 SC : 54,000 45,000 2,340 2,100 117,810 126,360 94,500 TN : 59,480 63,580 1,922 1,980 109,888 114,292 125,868 VA : 53,080 47,680 2,215 2,152 103,543 117,576 102,604 WV 1/ : 1,800 1,800 1,700 1,500 2,040 3,060 2,700 WI : 2,550 2,300 2,231 2,052 5,162 5,690 4,720 : US : 811,480 749,495 2,201 2,048 1,517,351 1,786,065 1,534,657 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast. Tobacco: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Class, Type, State, and United States, 1997 and Forecasted September 1, 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production Class and Type :--------------------------------------------------------- : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----- Acres ----- --- Pounds -- --- 1,000 Pounds -- : Class 1, Flue-cured : Type 11, Old Belts : NC : 90,000 74,000 2,025 1,900 182,250 140,600 VA : 41,000 35,000 2,315 2,200 94,915 77,000 US : 131,000 109,000 2,116 1,996 277,165 217,600 Type 12, Eastern NC : Belt : NC : 179,000 150,000 2,445 2,000 437,655 300,000 Type 13, NC Border & : SC Belt : NC : 40,000 32,000 2,455 1,900 98,200 60,800 SC : 54,000 45,000 2,340 2,100 126,360 94,500 US : 94,000 77,000 2,389 2,017 224,560 155,300 Type 14, GA-FL Belt : FL : 7,300 6,500 2,610 2,300 19,053 14,950 GA : 43,000 42,000 2,075 2,000 89,225 84,000 US : 50,300 48,500 2,153 2,040 108,278 98,950 Total 11-14 : 454,300 384,500 2,306 2,007 1,047,658 771,850 Class 2, Fire-cured : Type 21, VA Belt : VA : 1,200 1,600 1,640 1,500 1,968 2,400 Type 22, Eastern : District : KY : 3,750 3,800 2,560 2,500 9,600 9,500 TN : 7,400 7,400 2,480 2,500 18,352 18,500 US : 11,150 11,200 2,507 2,500 27,952 28,000 Type 23, Western : District : KY : 3,600 3,700 2,970 3,100 10,692 11,470 TN : 600 600 2,750 2,750 1,650 1,650 US : 4,200 4,300 2,939 3,051 12,342 13,120 Total 21-23 : 16,550 17,100 2,554 2,545 42,262 43,520 Class 3, Air-cured : Class 3A, Light : Air-cured : Type 31, Burley : IN : 8,900 8,500 2,100 2,100 18,690 17,850 KY : 220,000 225,000 2,140 2,150 470,800 483,750 MO 1/ : 3,000 2,800 2,345 2,300 7,035 6,440 NC : 8,400 8,600 1,585 1,800 13,314 15,480 OH : 11,400 9,800 1,960 1,910 22,300 18,718 TN : 51,000 55,000 1,830 1,900 93,330 104,500 VA : 10,800 11,000 1,905 2,100 20,574 23,100 WV 1/ : 1,800 1,800 1,700 1,500 3,060 2,700 US : 315,300 322,500 2,059 2,085 649,103 672,538 Type 32, Southern MD : Belt : MD : 8,000 7,500 1,500 1,450 12,000 10,875 PA : 3,000 2,700 1,900 1,880 5,700 5,076 US : 11,000 10,200 1,609 1,564 17,700 15,951 Total 31-32 : 326,300 332,700 2,044 2,069 666,803 688,489 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --continued Tobacco: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Class, Type, State, and United States, 1997 and Forecasted September 1, 1998 (continued) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production Class and Type :--------------------------------------------------------- : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----- Acres ----- --- Pounds -- --- 1,000 Pounds --- : Class 3, Air-cured : Class 3B, Dark : Air-cured : Type 35, One Sucker : Belt : KY : 2,050 2,500 2,290 2,500 4,695 6,250 TN : 480 580 2,000 2,100 960 1,218 US : 2,530 3,080 2,235 2,425 5,655 7,468 Type 36, Green River : Belt : KY : 1,100 1,400 2,310 2,400 2,541 3,360 Type 37, VA Sun-cured: Belt : VA : 80 80 1,488 1,300 119 104 Total 35-37 : 3,710 4,560 2,241 2,397 8,315 10,932 Class 4, Cigar Filler : Type 41, PA Seedleaf : PA : 4,600 4,500 2,100 2,000 9,660 9,000 Class 5, Cigar Binder : Class 5A, CT Valley : Binder : Type 51, CT Valley : Broadleaf : CT 1/ : 1,230 1,325 1,730 1,800 2,128 2,385 MA 1/ : 780 875 1,850 1,665 1,443 1,457 US : 2,010 2,200 1,777 1,746 3,571 3,842 Class 5B, WI Binder : Type 54, Southern WI: WI : 1,800 1,600 2,330 2,250 4,194 3,600 Type 55, Northern WI: WI : 750 700 1,995 1,600 1,496 1,120 Total 54-55 : 2,550 2,300 2,231 2,052 5,690 4,720 Total 51-55 : 4,560 4,500 2,031 1,903 9,261 8,562 Class 6, Cigar Wrapper: Type 61, CT Valley : Shade-grown : CT 1/ : 1,040 1,295 1,415 1,490 1,472 1,930 MA 1/ : 420 340 1,510 1,100 634 374 US : 1,460 1,635 1,442 1,409 2,106 2,304 All Cigar Types : Total 41-61 : 10,620 10,635 1,980 1,868 21,027 19,866 : All Tobacco : 811,480 749,495 2,201 2,048 1,786,065 1,534,657 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast. Oranges: Utilized Production by State and United States, 1996-97, 1997-98 and Forecasted September 1, 1998 1/ 2/ 3/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Utilized Production : Utilized Production : Boxes : Ton Equivalent Crop and State :----------------------------------------------------------- : 1996-97 : 1997-98 : 1998-99 : 1996-97 : 1997-98 : 1998-99 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------- 1,000 Boxes ------ ------- 1,000 Tons ------- Early Mid & : Navel 4/ : AZ : 400 350 15 13 CA : 40,000 44,000 34,000 1,500 1,650 1,275 FL : 134,200 140,000 6,039 6,300 TX : 1,300 1,350 55 57 US : 175,900 185,700 7,609 8,020 Valencia : AZ : 600 650 23 25 CA : 24,000 30,000 900 1,125 FL : 92,000 104,000 4,140 4,680 TX : 120 175 5 7 US : 116,720 134,825 5,068 5,837 All : AZ : 1,000 1,000 38 38 CA : 64,000 74,000 2,400 2,775 FL : 226,200 244,000 10,179 10,980 TX : 1,420 1,525 60 64 US : 292,620 320,525 12,677 13,857 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 1996-97 and 1997-98 revised. Revised grapefruit and other citrus fruit totals will be released September 23, 1998, in "Citrus Fruits, 1998 Summary". 2/ The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest the following year. 3/ Net lbs. per box: AZ & CA-75, FL-90, TX-85. 4/ Navel and miscellaneous varieties in AZ and CA. Early (including Navel) and midseason varieties in FL and TX. Small quantities of tangerines in TX. Sugarbeets: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 1996-97 and Forecasted September 1, 1998 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production State :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 : 1996 : 1997 : 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -- 1,000 Acres -- ---- Tons ---- ------- 1,000 Tons ------- : CA : 99.0 100.0 30.0 29.0 2,419 2,970 2,900 CO : 66.4 59.8 19.7 21.7 1,032 1,308 1,298 ID : 197.0 203.0 26.4 25.3 4,563 5,210 5,136 MI : 160.0 174.0 19.0 18.0 1,963 3,040 3,132 MN : 446.0 462.0 18.5 19.4 7,971 8,251 8,963 MT 2/ : 58.3 63.0 21.0 21.6 1,300 1,224 1,361 NE : 60.3 45.9 16.8 19.5 913 1,013 895 NM : 1.6 30.6 27 49 ND 2/ : 227.5 240.0 18.5 19.7 4,213 4,205 4,728 OH : 0.9 1.0 19.0 18.0 86 17 18 OR : 17.4 17.5 28.4 24.4 416 494 427 TX : 15.0 18.0 242 270 WA : 18.0 36.3 33.1 33.5 461 595 1,216 WY : 60.9 53.0 20.4 20.0 1,074 1,240 1,060 : US : 1,428.3 1,455.5 20.9 21.4 26,680 29,886 31,134 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Relates to year of intended harvest except for overwintered spring planted beets in CA. 2/ Planted acres for MT and ND revised to 64,300 and 245,000 acres, respectively. Sugarcane for Sugar and Seed: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 1996-97 and Forecasted September 1, 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield 1/ : Production 1/ State:------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 : 1996 : 1997 : 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres ---- Tons ---- -------- 1,000 Tons -------- : FL : 440.0 448.0 36.9 36.0 14,498 16,236 16,128 HI : 34.2 34.0 88.0 82.0 3,639 3,009 2,788 LA : 410.0 420.0 28.2 27.0 10,323 11,562 11,340 TX : 29.8 37.0 30.3 27.5 1,002 902 1,018 : US : 914.0 939.0 34.7 33.3 29,462 31,709 31,274 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Net tons. Papayas: Area and Fresh Production, by Month, Hawaii, 1997-98 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area : Fresh Production :------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : Total in Crop : Harvested : : :---------------------------------------------: 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------------- Acres ---------------- 1,000 Pounds : Jul : 5,280 3,665 2,325 2,450 2,845 3,005 Aug : 5,350 3,645 2,350 2,400 2,705 2,740 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Nuts: Utilized Production, In-shell Basis, by Crop and State, 1996-97 and Forecasted September 1, 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Utilized Production Crop and State :----------------------------------------------------------- : 1996 : 1997 : 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Tons : Hazelnuts : OR : 18,400 46,850 16,450 WA : 100 150 50 Total : 18,500 47,000 16,500 : Walnuts : CA : 208,000 269,000 220,000 : : 1,000 Pounds : Pistachios : CA : 105,000 180,000 195,000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Pecans: Utilized Production by Crop, State, and United States, 1996-97 and Forecasted September 1, 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Utilized Production Crop and State :----------------------------------------------------- : 1996 : 1997 : 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Pounds Improved Varieties 1/ : AL : 9,000 7,000 6,000 AZ : 17,000 17,500 17,500 AR : 800 1,600 500 CA : 1,300 2,500 1,600 FL : 500 600 600 GA : 86,000 81,000 50,000 LA : 2,000 2,000 2,000 MS : 1,300 2,600 1,800 NM : 22,000 43,000 28,000 NC : 425 900 1,400 OK : 500 3,000 1,500 SC : 1,800 2,600 500 TX : 30,000 40,000 30,000 US : 172,625 204,300 141,400 : Native & Seedling : AL : 5,000 6,000 4,000 AR : 400 3,000 200 FL : 1,400 1,200 900 GA : 14,000 24,000 10,000 KS : 200 4,200 200 LA : 14,000 10,000 8,000 MS : 1,300 1,400 700 NC : 375 600 1,100 OK : 1,500 32,000 8,500 SC : 700 1,400 200 TX : 10,000 50,000 10,000 US : 48,875 133,800 43,800 : All Pecans : AL : 14,000 13,000 10,000 AZ : 17,000 17,500 17,500 AR : 1,200 4,600 700 CA : 1,300 2,500 1,600 FL : 1,900 1,800 1,500 GA : 100,000 105,000 60,000 KS : 200 4,200 200 LA : 16,000 12,000 10,000 MS : 2,600 4,000 2,500 NM : 22,000 43,000 28,000 NC : 800 1,500 2,500 OK : 2,000 35,000 10,000 SC : 2,500 4,000 700 TX : 40,000 90,000 40,000 US : 221,500 338,100 185,200 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Budded, grafted, or topworked varieties. Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 1997-98 1/ (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted : Area Harvested Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres : Grains & Hay : Barley : 6,910.0 6,446.0 6,425.0 6,078.0 Corn for Grain 2/ : 80,227.0 80,798.0 73,720.0 73,789.0 Corn for Silage : 5,758.0 Hay, All : 60,815.0 59,819.0 Alfalfa : 23,673.0 23,437.0 All Other : 37,142.0 36,382.0 Oats : 5,169.0 4,992.0 2,911.0 2,936.0 Rice : 3,056.0 3,215.0 3,034.0 3,187.0 Rye : 1,433.0 1,586.0 341.0 428.0 Sorghum for Grain 2/ : 10,108.0 9,726.0 9,391.0 7,838.0 Sorghum for Silage : 310.0 Wheat, All : 70,989.0 65,799.0 63,577.0 59,211.0 Winter : 48,342.0 46,850.0 41,813.0 40,757.0 Durum : 3,250.0 3,700.0 3,107.0 3,583.0 Other Spring : 19,397.0 15,249.0 18,657.0 14,871.0 : Oilseeds : Canola : 728.0 1,133.0 698.0 1,087.0 Cottonseed : Flaxseed : 146.0 335.0 135.0 322.0 Mustard Seed : 74.4 124.0 72.8 121.0 Peanuts 3/ : 1,431.0 1,503.0 1,410.8 1,475.5 Rapeseed : 1.7 2.0 1.5 1.9 Safflower : 249.0 296.0 235.0 282.0 Soybeans for Beans : 70,850.0 72,690.0 69,884.0 71,570.0 Sunflower : 2,949.0 3,420.0 2,852.0 3,307.0 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All : 13,808.0 12,865.5 13,270.0 10,604.5 Upland : 13,558.0 12,552.0 13,021.0 10,358.0 Amer-Pima : 250.0 313.5 249.0 246.5 Sugarbeets : 1,459.3 1,495.2 1,428.3 1,455.5 Sugarcane : 914.0 939.0 Tobacco : 811.5 749.5 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 8.1 7.6 Dry Edible Beans : 1,851.8 2,024.0 1,720.2 1,903.9 Dry Edible Peas : 293.6 276.6 Lentils : 181.0 172.0 Wrinkled Seed Peas : : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 5.6 Ginger Root (HI) : 0.3 0.4 Hops : 43.3 36.6 Peppermint Oil : 136.3 Potatoes, All : 1,380.6 1,401.1 1,345.1 1,374.0 Winter : 15.6 15.5 15.4 15.0 Spring : 88.3 93.2 86.2 89.8 Summer : 68.6 74.4 65.9 70.8 Fall : 1,208.1 1,218.0 1,177.6 1,198.4 Spearmint Oil : 24.5 Sweet Potatoes : 86.7 86.1 83.3 83.2 Taro (HI) 4/ : 0.5 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 1998 crop year. 2/ Area planted for all purposes. 3/ 1998 area planted revised. 4/ Acreage is total acres in crop, not harvested acreage. Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 1997-98 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Yield : Production Crop :Unit :------------------------------------------- : : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : ------- 1,000 ------ : : Grains & Hay : : Barley : Bu : 58.3 61.3 374,478 372,379 Corn for Grain : " : 127.0 132.0 9,365,574 9,737,949 Corn for Silage : Ton : 16.0 91,903 Hay, All : " : 2.50 2.48 152,120 148,287 Alfalfa : " : 3.35 3.43 79,242 80,290 All Other : " : 1.96 1.87 72,878 67,997 Oats : Bu : 60.5 60.4 176,104 177,211 Rice 2/ : Cwt : 5,896 5,685 178,896 181,170 Rye : Bu : 26.1 8,912 Sorghum for Grain : " : 69.5 67.5 653,106 529,371 Sorghum for Silage : Ton : 12.5 3,885 Wheat, All : Bu : 39.7 43.3 2,526,552 2,564,769 Winter : " : 45.0 47.0 1,882,609 1,914,359 Durum : " : 27.7 36.8 86,193 131,694 Other Spring : " : 29.9 34.9 557,750 518,716 : : Oilseeds : : Canola : Lb : 1,310 914,385 Cottonseed : Ton : 6,935 5,085 Flaxseed : Bu : 16.1 2,171 Mustard Seed : Lb : 816 59,405 Peanuts : " : 2,507 2,459 3,537,050 3,628,950 Rapeseed : " : 1,300 1,950 Safflower : " : 1,830 430,050 Soybeans for Beans : Bu : 39.0 40.6 2,727,254 2,908,604 Sunflower : Lb : 1,320 3,763,428 : : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : : Cotton, All 2/ : Bale: 680 614.0 18,793.0 13,562.6 Upland 2/ : " : 673 607 18,245.0 13,100.6 Amer-Pima 2/ : " : 1,056 900 548.0 462.0 Sugarbeets : Ton : 20.9 21.4 29,886 31,134 Sugarcane : " : 34.7 33.3 31,709 31,274 Tobacco : Lb : 2,201 2,048 1,786,065 1,534,657 : : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : : Austrian Winter Peas 2/ : Cwt : 1,513 115 Dry Edible Beans 2/ : " : 1,695 1,570 29,156 29,886 Dry Edible Peas 2/ : " : 2,103 5,816 Lentils 2/ : " : 1,390 2,391 Wrinkled Seed Peas : " : 682 : : Potatoes & Misc. : : Coffee (HI) : Lb : 1,680 9,400 Ginger Root (HI) : " : 44,000 50,000 12,100 18,000 Hops : " : 1,729 1,799 74,872.1 65,913.0 Peppermint Oil : " : 75 10,256 Potatoes, All : Cwt : 346 465,537 Winter : " : 203 199 3,124 2,980 Spring : " : 252 217 21,749 19,455 Summer : " : 271 276 17,875 19,533 Fall : " : 359 422,789 Spearmint Oil : Lb : 98 2,403 Sweet Potatoes : Cwt : 162 13,512 Taro (HI) 3/ : Lb : 5,500 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 1998 crop year. 2/ Yield in pounds. 3/ Yield is not estimated. Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 1996-98 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Production Crop : Unit :----------------------------------------------- : : 1996 : 1997 : 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 1,000 : : Citrus 2/ : : Grapefruit : Ton : 2,718 2,888 2,626 K-Early Citrus (FL) : " : 7 7 2 Lemons : " : 992 859 935 Oranges : " : 11,426 12,677 13,857 Tangelos (FL) : " : 110 178 128 Tangerines : " : 349 418 360 Temples (FL) : " : 97 108 101 : : Non-Citrus : : Apples : Lb : 10,392.0 10,386.1 11,321.9 Apricots : Ton : 79.3 138.0 130.2 Bananas (HI) : Lb : 13,000.0 13,700.0 Grapes : Ton : 5,554.3 7,282.4 6,232.9 Olives (CA) : " : 166.0 104.0 95.0 Papayas (HI) : Lb : 41,800.0 38,800.0 Peaches : " : 2,116.3 2,651.1 2,420.0 Pears : Ton : 820.8 1,044.1 918.3 Prunes, Dried (CA) : " : 223.0 214.0 170.0 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA): " : 20.0 29.0 28.3 : : Nuts & Misc. : : Almonds (CA) : Lb : 510,000 757,000 540,000 Hazelnuts : Ton : 18.5 47.0 16.5 Pecans : Lb : 221,500 338,100 185,200 Pistachios (CA) : " : 105,000 180,000 195,000 Walnuts (CA) : Ton : 208.0 269.0 220.0 Maple Syrup : Gal : 1,567 1,298 1,159 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 1998 crop year. 2/ Production years are 1995-96, 1996-97, and 1997-98. Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 1997-98 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted : Area Harvested Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Hectares : Grains & Hay : Barley : 2,796,410 2,608,630 2,600,130 2,459,710 Corn for Grain 2/ :32,467,060 32,698,140 29,833,750 29,861,670 Corn for Silage : 2,330,210 Hay, All 3/ : 24,611,220 Alfalfa : 9,580,230 9,484,720 All Other : 15,031,000 14,723,430 Oats : 2,091,840 2,020,210 1,178,050 1,188,170 Rice : 1,236,730 1,301,080 1,227,830 1,289,750 Rye : 579,920 641,840 138,000 173,210 Sorghum for Grain 2/ : 4,090,610 3,936,010 3,800,440 3,171,960 Sorghum for Silage : 125,450 Wheat, All 3/ :28,728,540 26,628,200 25,728,980 23,962,100 Winter :19,563,520 18,959,730 16,921,300 16,493,950 Durum : 1,315,240 1,497,350 1,257,370 1,450,000 Other Spring : 7,849,770 6,171,120 7,550,300 6,018,140 : Oilseeds : Canola : 294,610 458,510 282,470 439,900 Cottonseed : Flaxseed : 59,080 135,570 54,630 130,310 Mustard Seed : 30,110 50,180 29,460 48,970 Peanuts : 579,110 608,250 570,940 597,120 Rapeseed : 690 810 610 770 Safflower : 100,770 119,790 95,100 114,120 Soybeans for Beans :28,672,290 29,416,920 28,281,360 28,963,660 Sunflower : 1,193,430 1,384,040 1,154,180 1,338,310 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All 3/ : 5,587,960 5,206,540 5,370,240 4,291,540 Upland : 5,486,790 5,079,670 5,269,470 4,191,780 Amer-Pima : 101,170 126,870 100,770 99,760 Sugarbeets : 590,560 605,090 578,020 589,030 Sugarcane : 369,890 380,000 Tobacco : 328,400 303,310 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 3,280 3,080 Dry Edible Beans : 749,400 819,090 696,150 770,490 Dry Edible Peas : 118,820 111,940 Lentils : 73,250 69,610 Wrinkled Seed Peas : : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 2,270 Ginger Root (HI) : 110 150 Hops : 17,520 14,830 Peppermint Oil : 55,160 Potatoes, All 3/ : 558,720 567,010 544,350 556,040 Winter : 6,310 6,270 6,230 6,070 Spring : 35,730 37,720 34,880 36,340 Summer : 27,760 30,110 26,670 28,650 Fall : 488,910 492,910 476,560 484,980 Spearmint Oil : 9,910 Sweet Potatoes : 35,090 34,840 33,710 33,670 Taro (HI) 4/ : 180 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 1998 crop year. 2/ Area planted for all purposes. 3/ Total may not add due to rounding. 4/ Area is total hectares in crop, not harvested hectares. Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 1997-98 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Yield : Production Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Metric Tons : Grains & Hay : Barley : 3.14 3.30 8,153,300 8,107,600 Corn for Grain : 7.97 8.28 237,896,540 247,355,300 Corn for Silage : 35.78 83,373,000 Hay, All 2/ : 5.61 5.56 138,000,940 134,523,700 Alfalfa : 7.50 7.68 71,887,130 72,837,860 All Other : 4.40 4.19 66,113,810 61,685,840 Oats : 2.17 2.16 2,556,140 2,572,210 Rice : 6.61 6.37 8,114,590 8,217,730 Rye : 1.64 226,380 Sorghum for Grain : 4.37 4.24 16,589,660 13,446,640 Sorghum for Silage : 28.09 3,524,410 Wheat, All 2/ : 2.67 2.91 68,761,480 69,801,570 Winter : 3.03 3.16 51,236,220 52,100,310 Durum : 1.87 2.47 2,345,790 3,584,120 Other Spring : 2.01 2.35 15,179,470 14,117,140 : Oilseeds : Canola : 1.47 414,760 Cottonseed : 6,290,960 4,613,030 Flaxseed : 1.01 55,150 Mustard Seed : 0.91 26,950 Peanuts : 2.81 2.76 1,604,380 1,646,060 Rapeseed : 1.46 880 Safflower : 2.05 195,070 Soybeans for Beans : 2.62 2.73 74,223,690 79,159,230 Sunflower : 1.48 1,707,060 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All 2/ : 0.76 0.69 4,091,690 2,952,910 Upland : 0.75 0.68 3,972,380 2,852,320 Amer-Pima : 1.18 1.01 119,310 100,590 Sugarbeets : 46.91 47.95 27,112,120 28,244,290 Sugarcane : 77.77 74.66 28,765,920 28,371,300 Tobacco : 2.47 2.30 810,150 696,110 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 1.70 5,220 Dry Edible Beans : 1.90 1.76 1,322,490 1,355,610 Dry Edible Peas : 2.36 263,810 Lentils : 1.56 108,450 Wrinkled Seed Peas : 30,940 : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 1.88 4,260 Ginger Root (HI) : 49.32 56.04 5,490 8,160 Hops : 1.94 2.02 33,960 29,900 Peppermint Oil : 0.08 4,650 Potatoes, All 2/ : 38.79 21,116,400 Winter : 22.74 22.27 141,700 135,170 Spring : 28.28 24.28 986,520 882,460 Summer : 30.40 30.92 810,800 886,000 Fall : 40.24 19,177,390 Spearmint Oil : 0.11 1,090 Sweet Potatoes : 18.18 612,890 Taro (HI) 3/ : 2,490 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 1998 crop year. 2/ Production may not add due to rounding. 3/ Yield is not estimated. Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 1996-98 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Production Crop :----------------------------------------------------- : 1996 : 1997 : 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Metric tons : Citrus 2/ : Grapefruit : 2,465,730 2,619,950 2,382,270 K-Early Citrus (FL) : 6,350 6,350 1,810 Lemons : 899,930 779,270 848,220 Oranges : 10,365,490 11,500,380 12,570,860 Tangelos (FL) : 99,790 161,480 116,120 Tangerines : 316,610 379,200 326,590 Temples (FL) : 88,000 97,980 91,630 : Non-Citrus : Apples : 4,710 4,710 5,140 Apricots : 71,940 125,190 118,120 Bananas (HI) : 5,900 6,210 Grapes : 5,038,780 6,606,480 5,654,350 Olives (CA) : 150,590 94,350 86,180 Papayas (HI) : 18,960 17,600 Peaches : 960 1,200 1,100 Pears : 744,570 947,190 833,100 Prunes, Dried (CA) : 202,300 194,140 154,220 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA) : 18,140 26,310 25,670 : Nuts & Misc. : Almonds (CA) : 231,330 343,370 244,940 Hazelnuts : 16,780 42,640 14,970 Pecans : 100,470 153,360 84,010 Pistachios (CA) : 47,630 81,650 88,450 Walnuts (CA) : 188,690 244,030 199,580 Maple Syrup : 7,830 6,490 5,790 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 1998 crop year. 2/ Production years are 1995-96, 1996-97, and 1997-98. Corn for Grain: Plant Population The National Agricultural Statistics Service is conducting objective yield surveys in 7 corn producing states during 1998. Randomly selected plots in corn for grain fields are visited monthly from August through harvest to obtain specific counts and measurements. Data in this table are rounded actual field counts from this survey. Corn for Grain: Plant Population per Acre, Selected States, 1994-98 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State : Month : 1994 : 1995 : 1996 : 1997 : 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Number : : IL : Sep : 23,300 24,000 24,350 25,000 25,550 : Nov : 23,200 23,650 24,200 24,900 : : IN : Sep : 22,800 23,900 23,550 23,700 24,350 : Nov : 22,850 24,000 23,500 23,800 : : IA : Sep : 24,000 24,800 25,000 25,700 25,700 : Nov : 23,950 24,650 24,950 25,500 : : MN : Sep : 26,100 26,400 26,500 26,300 27,750 : Nov : 26,000 26,350 26,600 26,600 : : NE : Sep : 21,900 22,600 22,750 22,850 23,350 : Nov : 21,700 22,500 22,700 22,850 : : OH : Sep : 22,800 23,400 23,100 23,450 25,350 : Nov : 22,900 23,300 22,750 23,500 : : WI : Sep : 24,100 24,600 24,800 24,750 26,600 : Nov : 23,600 24,000 24,900 24,800 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- All Spring Wheat: Head Population The National Agricultural Statistics Service is conducting objective yield surveys in three spring wheat producing states during 1998. Randomly selected plots in wheat fields are visited monthly from August through harvest to obtain specific counts and measurements. Data in this table are actual field counts from this survey. The final number of heads is determined when the plots are harvested at maturity. These data will be published in January. All Spring Wheat: Heads per Square Foot, Selected States, 1994-98 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop and State :Month : 1994 : 1995 : 1996 : 1997 : 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Number : : Other Spring : : : : MN : Sep : 44.3 45.6 41.6 47.7 45.8 : Final: 43.9 45.6 41.6 47.8 : : MT : Sep : 27.3 30.4 25.2 25.8 29.5 : Final: 27.3 30.4 25.1 25.8 : : ND : Sep : 39.4 39.5 36.0 37.8 38.5 : Final: 39.4 39.5 36.1 37.7 : : Durum : : : : ND : Sep : 25.9 24.8 24.7 22.8 27.5 : Final: 25.7 24.8 24.7 22.8 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Soybeans: Pods with Beans The National Agricultural Statistics Service is conducting objective yield surveys in 8 soybean producing States during 1998. Randomly selected plots of soybeans fields are visited monthly from August through harvest to obtain specific counts and measurements. Data in this table are actual field counts from this survey. Soybeans: Pods with Beans per 18 Square Feet, Selected States, 1994-98 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State : Month : 1994 : 1995 : 1996 : 1997 : 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Number : : AR : Sep 2/: : Nov : 1,782 1,755 1,521 2,098 : Final : 1,673 1,609 1,481 1,956 : : IL : Sep : 1,745 1,816 1,505 1,828 2,087 : Nov : 1,639 1,764 1,573 1,708 : Final : 1,636 1,764 1,581 1,708 : : IN : Sep : 1,850 1,755 1,416 1,622 1,883 : Nov : 1,574 1,677 1,470 1,532 : Final : 1,570 1,677 1,457 1,532 : : IA : Sep : 1,887 1,739 1,654 1,894 1,914 : Nov : 1,820 1,611 1,463 1,458 : Final : 1,820 1,616 1,463 1,461 : : MN : Sep : 1,678 1,613 1,543 1,585 1,598 : Nov : 1,496 1,501 1,487 1,506 : Final : 1,496 1,501 1,487 1,506 : : MO : Sep : 1,470 895 1,491 1,539 1,847 : Nov : 1,643 1,462 1,688 1,591 : Final : 1,659 1,469 1,655 1,650 : : NE : Sep : 1,676 1,404 1,715 1,716 1,849 : Nov : 1,826 1,420 1,514 1,345 : Final : 1,826 1,420 1,514 1,342 : : OH : Sep : 1,950 1,790 1,452 1,711 1,887 : Nov : 1,643 1,647 1,378 1,485 : Final : 1,643 1,650 1,383 1,467 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on pod counts in plots selected for objective yield samples. 2/ Not available due to plant immaturity. Cotton: Cumulative Boll Counts The National Agricultural Statistics Service is conducting objective yield surveys in 5 cotton producing states during 1998. Randomly selected plots of cotton fields are visited monthly from August through harvest to obtain specific counts and measurements. Data in this table are actual field counts from this survey. Cotton: Cumulative Boll Counts, September 1994-98, and November and Final, 1994-97 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State : Month : 1994 : 1995 : 1996 : 1997 : 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Number : : AR : Sep : 1,019 850 857 975 637 : Nov : 813 689 741 810 : Final : 812 689 741 811 : : CA : Sep : 828 751 707 701 755 : Nov : 805 682 748 697 : Final : 806 680 744 697 : : LA : Sep : 808 679 665 639 694 : Nov : 747 615 607 643 : Final : 748 615 607 643 : : MS : Sep : 864 682 816 908 835 : Nov : 761 607 731 835 : Final : 760 607 729 833 : : TX : Sep : 515 423 383 500 498 : Nov : 484 409 498 468 : Final : 486 415 498 458 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes small bolls (less than one inch in diameter), large unopened bolls (at least one inch in diameter), open bolls, partially opened bolls, and burrs, per 40 feet of row. In November, excludes small bolls. Crop Moisture Depicts short term (up to about 4 weeks) abnormal dryness or wetness affecting Agriculture, responds rapidly, can change considerably week to week, and indicates normal conditions at the beginning and end of the growing season. Uses...applicable in measuring the short term, week-to-week, status of dryness or wetness affecting warm season crops and field operations. Limitations...may not be applicable to germination and shallow rooted crops which are unable to extract the deep or subsoil moisture from a 5-foot profile, or for cool season crops growing when temperatures are averaging below about 55 degrees fahrenheit. It is not generally indicative of the long term (months, years) drought or wet spells which are depicted by the drought severity index. Drought Severity Drought severity index (Palmer): Depicts prolonged (months, years) abnormal dryness or wetness; responds slowly; changes little from week to week; and reflects long term moisture runoff, recharge, and deep percolation, as well as evaportranspiration. Uses...applicable in measuring disruptive effects of prolonged dryness or wetness on water sensitive economies; designating disaster areas of drought or wetness and reflecting the general long-term status of water supplies in aquifers, reservoirs, and streams. Limitations...is not generally indicative of short-term (few weeks) status of drought or wetness such as frequently affects crops and field operations (this is indicated by the crop moisture index). August Weather Summary: After a quiet Atlantic hurricane season through mid-August, Tropical Storm Charley and Hurricane Bonnie left imprints on southern Texas and the eastern Mid-Atlantic region, respectively. Away from Charley's influence, however, drought stretched into a sixth month across parts of the South-Central States, particularly in parts of northern Texas and southern Oklahoma. Pockets of short-term dryness also began to develop as far north as Kansas. Frequent rains and moderate temperatures aided filling corn and soybeans across the Midwest, but unfavorably dry weather prevailed in parts of the Mid-Atlantic region for a second consecutive month. Locally heavy rainfall soaked portions of the northern Plains and upper Midwest, but hot, dry weather dominated the West. Monthly temperatures ranged from 2 to 5 degrees F above normal in the northern Plains and Northwest, and were generally 1 to 4 degrees F above normal in the drought-stricken portions of the South Central States. Temperatures were within 2 degrees F of normal throughout the Midwest and Southeast, but as much as 5 degrees F above normal in California and the Southwest. Bonnie became a hurricane on the morning of August 22 and neared the North Carolina coast 4 days later. After stalling near Cape Fear, Bonnie drifted inland just northeast of Wilmington, NC on August 27. Sustained winds were 115 mph prior to landfall. After weakening to tropical-storm force, Bonnie re-emerged over the Atlantic near Kitty Hawk, NC, briefly regaining hurricane intensity (75 mph winds) and battering southeastern Virginia. Storm-total rainfall topped 10 inches in a small area near Bonnie's landfall, including 11.31 inches in Jacksonville, NC. Tropical Storm Charley formed on August 21, reaching the Texas coast near Port Aransas the next morning. Sustained winds briefly reached 60 mph just prior to landfall. Heavy rainfall spread westward through southern Texas for the next several days. On August 23, nearly a year's worth of rain (17.03 inches, or 93 percent of their normal annual total) saturated Del Rio, TX, causing extensive flooding, en route to a monthly total of 20.93 inches. As a result, Del Rio's records for single-day (8.79 inches on June 13, 1935), August (6.10 inches in 1971), and monthly precipitation (15.79 inches in September 1964) were shattered. Ironically, Del Rio's rainfall during the first 8 month of 1998 was just 2.89 inches, or 27 percent of normal, and was accompanied by 69 days of 100-degree heat, breaking their 1951 record by 1 day. Despite the flooding in southern Texas, Charley's rains eased long-term drought. Monthly totals of 7.78 inches (306 percent of normal) in San Antonio and 4.06 inches (123 percent) in Corpus Christi accounted for 42 and 37 percent of year-to-date rainfalls, respectively. Nevertheless, hot weather early in the month propelled San Antonio to a record-setting 36th day of triple-digit heat this year, eclipsing their 1948 standard by 3 days. Corpus Christi, TX posted a record-setting 41 consecutive days (July 5 - August 14) with highs at or above 95 degrees F. A northern Texas heat wave temporarily broke on August 4, ending 29-day streaks of 100-degree weather in Dallas-Ft. Worth and Waco. By month's end, however, the total number of days this year with highs at or above 100 degrees F reached 51 in Dallas-Ft. Worth and 58 in Waco, approaching 1980 records (69 and 63 days, respectively). The summer (June-August) of 1998 was the hottest on record in Brownsville (87.0 degrees F), breaking their 1980 record. In Florida, Tampa also marked their hottest summer (84.2 degrees F), breaking a record that had stood since 1887. It was the second-hottest summer in locations such as Shreveport, LA (behind 1881) and Dallas-Ft. Worth (behind 1980). Between June 16 and August 31, a 77-day span, Dallas-Ft. Worth's highs averaged 100.0 degrees F, while their rainfall totaled 0.46 inches. In addition, their April-August rainfall totaled 5.84 inches (37 percent of normal), second only to a 3.42-inch total during the same period in 1934. In contrast, pockets of persistent wetness farther north left Burlington, VT with their wettest summer on record (24.77 inches, breaking an 1892 mark), and provided Omaha, NE with their second-wettest summer (21.33 inches; 2.77 inches below the 1993 standard). During August, however, dryness persisted or developed in a few areas of the East and lower Midwest. August rainfall was the lowest on record in Lexington, KY (0.29 inches, or 7 percent of normal), and at Virginia's Dulles Airport (0.45 inches; 11 percent). August featured about 300 daily-record highs nationwide, nearly half of which occurred across the West and Southeast during the final 10 days of the month. In California, August high-temperature records were tied or broken in Paso Robles (114 degrees F on August 3) and downtown Sacramento (111 degrees F on August 4). Sacramento's highs reached triple digits on 16 days during the month, breaking an August 1996 record. August average-temperature records were established at locations such as downtown Sacramento (80.7 degrees F) and Reno, NV (74.9 degrees F). Drier-than-normal weather accompanied the heat throughout the West. In Montana, Butte experienced below-normal monthly precipitation (0.53 inches, or 40 percent of normal) for the first time this year. Several sites in the Northwest that typically collect more than 1 inch of rain during August, including Olympia, WA, Portland, OR, and Eugene, OR, received no measurable rainfall during the month. On the northern Plains, however, August-record rainfall (9.29 inches, or 540 percent of normal) soaked Bismarck, ND, 4.64 inches of which fell in a 24-hour period on August 21-22. Earlier in the month, more than 8 inches of rain pelted parts of southeastern Wisconsin on August 6-7. Late in the month, heat re-intensified across the West and the Southeast. On August 27-29, highs reached 100 degrees F in Jackson, MS for the first time on 3 consecutive days since 1990. On the 31st, maxima soared to 113 degrees F in Indio, CA and 100 degrees F in Augusta, GA. General Crop Comments: Mild temperatures and ample rainfall early in the month promoted rapid corn and soybean development in many parts of the Corn Belt. Varying temperature and precipitation patterns limited insect populations and disease outbreaks. However, uneven growth and yellowing due to nitrogen deficiency, while limited to areas with excessive rainfall, became more evident as the month progressed. Flooding plagued low-lying fields along the lower Ohio River Valley and Missouri Bootheel during the first half of the month. Heat and excessive dryness stressed corn and soybeans in parts of the Great Lakes region for most of the month. Virtually all cotton fields in the southern Great Plains and Southeast had progressed into the boll setting stage by mid-month, with bolls opening more than 1 week ahead of the average pace. Many areas, from the Mississippi Delta through the Southeast, battled rising insect populations, worm infestations, and boll rot. Scattered rains throughout the month relieved drought conditions in many areas of the southern Plains, Mississippi Delta, and Southeast, but the relief came too late for early maturing crops. Later planted cotton, peanut, and sorghum fields benefited from the rains, but were still under stress from excessive dryness as the month ended. Along the western Gulf Coast, cotton and rice harvest activities were periodically hindered by rain, but, by the end of the month, harvest was nearly complete for both crops. The winter wheat harvest was nearly complete, with only fields in the northern Great Plains and Pacific Northwest remaining unharvested as the month began. Spring wheat and barley harvest accelerated, as scattered early-month rains had little impact on the harvest pace. By mid-month, the spring wheat and barley crops were well over 50 percent harvested, nearly triple the normal pace in Minnesota and North Dakota. The rapid harvest pace continued through the end of the month, with many areas finishing 2 or 3 weeks early. The oat harvest was more than half complete as the month began, continued ahead of normal as the month progressed, and finished well before the end of the month in most areas of the Corn Belt. Above-normal temperatures in California promoted crop development and improved conditions, but cotton and rice development continued to lag well behind normal. As the month ended, cotton bolls were just beginning to open compared to the normal pace of 36 percent. Corn: Acreage harvested and to be harvested for grain is forecast at 73.8 million acres, unchanged from last month and virtually unchanged from 1997. The September 1 Corn Objective Yield data indicate a record level stalk count for the seven objective yield States (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Ohio, and Wisconsin). The September forecasted ears per acre are the highest on record, and if realized, would exceed the previous record final ears per acre set in 1997. Ear measurements from the sample plots indicate a length slightly greater than last year and the average. As of August 30, 65 percent of the acreage was reported dented in the 17 major States. This compares with 39 percent last year and 40 percent for the 5 year average. Corn rated in the good to excellent condition totaled 69 percent compared to 62 percent for a year ago. In Iowa, forecasted stalk populations are at record levels and ear populations are equal to record levels when compared to final counts. Ear length is slightly above the average but equal to 1997. Seventy-one percent of the corn was dented as of August 30, compared to 39 percent in 1997 and the average of 34 percent. Corn condition was 69 percent good to excellent. Forecasted stalk and ear counts are at a record high level for Illinois when compared to final levels. Ear length is above both last year and average. Sixty-three percent of the corn was dented, compared to 50 percent last year and 47 percent for the average. Sixty-five percent of the corn was rated in good to excellent condition. Nebraska and Ohio stalk and ear counts from objective yield data indicate record high levels. Ear length in both States is the same as 1997 but above average. Corn dented was well ahead of the average in both Nebraska and Ohio. Corn dented in Nebraska was 71 percent by August 30, compared to 38 percent for 1997 and the average of 39 percent. Ohio corn was 41 percent dented, compared to 16 percent for last year and the average of 31 percent. In Nebraska 85 percent of the corn crop was rated in good to excellent condition. In Ohio, the crop rated 70 percent in those two categories. In Minnesota, forecasted stalk and ear counts are at record levels. Ear length is above both last year and the average. The corn dented in Minnesota was at 74 percent, compared to 22 percent for last year and the average of 24 percent. The majority (75 percent) of corn in Minnesota was rated in good to excellent condition. Forecasted stalk and ear counts in Indiana and Wisconsin are at record levels. Ear length is less than both last year and the average in Wisconsin. In Indiana, ear length is above both last year and the average. Fifty-eight percent of the corn in Indiana was dented, compared to 34 percent in 1997 and the average of 40 percent. In Wisconsin, 49 percent of the corn was dented compared, to 7 percent in 1997 and the average of 21 percent. The majority (63 percent) of corn in Indiana was rated in good to excellent condition. In Wisconsin 71 percent of the corn was rated in good to excellent condition. Sorghum for Grain: Production is forecast at 529 million bushels, 770 thousand bushels above the August forecast but 19 percent below the 1997 total. Area harvested and to be harvested was unchanged from August at 7.84 million acres, down 17 percent from the previous year. The forecasted yield, at 67.5 bushels per acre, was up 0.1 bushels from last month but 2 bushels per acre below 1997. From the August report, Nebraska is the only State forecasting a higher yield, up 3 bushels to 98 bushels per acre. Arkansas and New Mexico yield forecasts are down 5 bushels at 62 and 60 bushels per acre, respectively. Mississippi, at 65 bushels per acre, is down 10 bushels from the previous forecast. All other States remained unchanged from the August forecast. As of the week ending September 6, the 12 major States reported 81 percent of the crop is coloring and 37 percent is mature. These are well ahead of the 5-year averages of 65 percent and 30 percent, respectively. Barley: Barley production for 1998 is forecast at 372 million bushels, down slightly from both August 1998 and the 1997 final production. Yields are expected to average 61.3 bushels per acre, a decrease of 0.3 bushels from August but still 3.0 bushels higher than last year. Area harvested and to be harvested, at 6.08 million acres, remained unchanged from August but is 5 percent below the 6.43 million acres harvested in 1997. Yield remained unchanged from August in eight of the eleven September forecast States but declined in Idaho, South Dakota, and Utah. Favorable weather during August pushed harvest progress ahead of normal in most of the major producing States. As of August 30, 91 percent of the crop had been harvested, compared with 64 percent normally harvested at this time. Harvest was winding down in North Dakota, South Dakota, and Washington. Durum Wheat: Grain area is unchanged from the last forecast at 3.58 million acres. Yield prospects improved in Minnesota and South Dakota. The North Dakota Durum crop developed ahead of the 5-year average throughout August; harvest was 56 percent complete on August 30. Average harvest progress is 25 percent. North Dakota's Durum objective yield survey head count forecast is well above average. The forecast head weight is improved from a month ago, but still lower than average. Other Spring Wheat: Harvested area for 1998 is unchanged from last month at 14.9 million acres, down 20 percent from last year. As of August 30, harvest was progressing well ahead of average in all major producing states. Idaho harvested yields are a bit lower than were expected last month. Washington's average yield is also down; light test weights have been reported. Objective Yield survey data again shows plant populations at above average levels in Minnesota, Montana, and North Dakota. Head weight forecasts are up from August in all states. Rice: Rice production is forecast at 181 million cwt, up 2 percent from August 1 and 1 percent above 1997. This production level, if realized, would be the third highest production on record. Area for harvest is expected to total 3.19 million acres, unchanged from August 1 and 5 percent above last year. Yields are expected to average 5,685 pounds per acre, up 109 pounds from August 1 but down 211 pounds from 1997. Yield prospects in Mississippi, Missouri, and Texas remained unchanged from a month ago. The Arkansas harvest was on schedule, while Texas was 22 percent ahead of the 5-year average. California harvest has not begun. The crop development in California was delayed slightly due to cold wet spring weather. Harvest is expected to begin two to three weeks later than normal. As of August 30, Arkansas crop development was slightly behind normal and was rated 61 percent good to excellent. The Louisiana harvest was 77 percent complete, and yields are better than earlier expectations. The crop condition in Mississippi and Texas rated mostly good to fair. Soybeans: Growers expect to harvest 71.6 million acres of soybeans, up 2 percent from 1997 and unchanged from the August 1998 forecast. As of September 1, the soybeans crop was rated mostly in fair to excellent condition. Conditions in the Corn Belt States during August varied from district to district, but were generally more favorable during the two first weeks of August when soil moisture supplies were more plentiful. Drier conditions were more prevalent the last two weeks of August, but many areas did get beneficial showers and storms. Some signs of isolated disease problems such as sudden death syndrome, brown stem rot and white mold were reported in areas of the Eastern Corn Belt. In many of the Southern and Mid-Atlantic states the crop was not doing as well as hot and dry conditions have persisted for much of the growing season. Hot sunny weather in many states helped to advance the crop maturity. As of September 7, 98 percent of the soybeans crop had already set pods, 1 percentage point ahead of 1997, and 2 points ahead of the 5-year average. The percent of soybeans dropping leaves, at 13 percent, was 7 points ahead of the previous year and 5 points ahead of the average. Pod counts from the September objective yield survey were the highest on record in Illinois, Iowa, Missouri, and Nebraska. Pod counts were also higher than the previous year in Indiana, Minnesota, and Ohio, but were not at record levels. Peanuts: Production is forecast at 3.63 billion pounds, up 4 percent from the August 1 forecast and up 3 percent from last year's crop. Area for harvest is expected to total 1.48 million acres, up 4 percent from August and 5 percent above 1997. Texas was the only state to adjust their harvested acreage from the August report, increasing their expectations by 50,000 acres. U.S. yields are expected to average 2,459 pounds, up 17 pounds from last month but down 48 pounds from 1997. Production in the Southeastern States (Alabama, Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina) is expected to total 1.94 billion pounds, up 2 percent from last month but down 1 percent last year. Yields in the four-State area are expected to average 2,366 pounds per acre, up 56 pounds from August 1 but 70 pounds below 1997. Yield prospects in Alabama were 100 pounds higher than last month. Early harvest is underway and the crop was in mostly fair to good condition by the end of August. The Georgia crop outlook improved some compared with last month. Showers and lower temperatures during August aided crop development. The peanut yield in Florida was unchanged from last month with 9 percent of the crop harvested by August 30. The Virginia-North Carolina production is forecast at 555 million pounds, 2 percent below last month but 7 percent above last year's crop. Yield per harvested acre in the region, at 2,775 pounds, is 116 pounds above last year's final average. Yield prospects in North Carolina decreased from last month due to the heavy rains from Hurricane Bonnie. On August 30, the Virginia-North Carolina crop was rated in mostly good to fair condition. Southwest crop production (New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas) is expected to total 1.13 billion pounds, up 11 percent from last month and 8 percent above 1997. Yields in the tri-state area are expected to average 2,490 pounds, 21 pounds below last month and 84 pounds per acre below 1997. New Mexico outlook improved from the previous month forecast with no disease problems reported. Yield prospects in Oklahoma remained unchanged from last month, with crop maturity running ahead of normal. As of August 30, digging had begun in Texas on the earliest fields, with crop conditions rated mostly good to fair. Cotton: Upland cotton harvested acreage, at 10.4 million acres, is down 95,000 acres from last month and down 20 percent from last year. Harvested acreage was reduced 50,000 acres in Georgia and 45,000 acres in California. American-Pima harvested acreage is up 2,000 acres from August, at 246,500 acres, but down 1 percent from 1997. Texas cotton condition showed very little improvement during the month, as a result of high temperatures. Rainfall had limited benefit on the non-irrigated acreage, and these fields remained stressed from lack of moisture. The rains interrupted harvest in Central Texas, while the Blackland harvest continued. Harvest neared completion in the Coastal Bend, Upper Coast, and Rio Grande. At the end of August, 18 percent of Texas' acreage was harvested compared to the 5-year average of 13 percent. Approximately one-half of the acreage was rated in poor or very poor condition, 17 percent was rated good, and 3 percent was rated excellent. In late August, boll set was complete and boll opening was 37 percent complete compared to the average of 25 percent. Because the irrigated acreage represents such a large percentage of the area for harvest in Texas this year, the objective yield survey data indicate Texas' large boll counts are the highest during the past 10 years. Small bolls and squares rank tenth and eighth, respectively, for the same period. In Oklahoma, the crop's potential decreased during the month. On August 30, 62 percent of the acreage was rated in fair or good condition, and 31 percent was rated poor or very poor. The Delta States (Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, and Tennessee) rated their cotton in mostly fair to good condition on August 30. Louisiana had 30 percent of their acreage in poor or very poor condition and Missouri showed 35 percent in these same two categories. Missouri's acreage received heavy rains during early August and then dry conditions began, with mild temperatures, which lowered yield potential. The Tennessee crop had high insect infestations and rainfall made chemical applications difficult. Arkansas and Louisiana producers applied chemicals because of increasing insect pressure and boll rot was also reported. Boll set was complete in early August in Louisiana, Mississippi, and Missouri, several points ahead of the 5-year average pace. The boll set in Arkansas and Tennessee was complete in mid-August, about equal to the average. Boll opening was ahead of average in all States. Arkansas was 32 percent open, 12 points ahead of normal, and Louisiana had bolls opened on 79 percent of the acreage, compared to the normal progress of 46 percent. Mississippi had 73 percent of their acreage showing open bolls, 29 points ahead of average. Most States showed decreases in crop condition during August, although the largest decline occurred in Louisiana and Missouri. On August 30, Arkansas showed 16 percent of their acreage in very poor or poor condition, 38 percent was fair, and 38 percent was in good condition. Mississippi rated 12 percent of their crop as poor to very poor, 37 percent fair, and 43 percent excellent on August 30. On this same date, Louisiana's cotton showed 35 percent fair, 30 percent good, and 5 percent in excellent condition. Data from cotton objective yield plots show Arkansas has the second lowest count of large bolls and squares since 1989 and count of small bolls are the lowest. Louisiana ranks fifth in large boll counts during the previous 10 years, the number of small bolls is the fourth lowest, and square counts are the highest since 1989. Mississippi's large boll count is the second highest in the past 10 years and small bolls and squares rank eighth and fifth, respectively. Arizona's crop was subject to late planting, extremely high temperatures, and above normal rainfall during the season. On August 30, 47 percent of the acreage was in fair condition, 22 percent in good condition, and 12 percent was rated excellent. On this same date, 38 percent of the acreage was showing open bolls which is one-half of the normal amount. Cotton development in California was also behind the average pace. In early August, boll set was one-fourth the normal development, and on August 23, it was one-half the normal pace. One percent of the acreage showed open bolls on August 30, which was 35 points behind the 5-year average. Some improvement in condition was shown during the month but, at month's end, 60 percent of the acreage was rated fair and 40 percent was rated in good condition. California producers continued to spray for aphids, lygus, mites, worms, and whitefly during the month. In early August, growth regulators were applied. Some early planted California fields received the final irrigation. Objective yield survey counts for California indicate the lowest count of large bolls during the past 10 years, while small bolls and square counts rank first and second, respectively, during the same time period. In the Southeastern States (Alabama, Georgia, North Carolina, and South Carolina), the crop's condition was mostly in fair to good condition. In late August, only Georgia's boll set was complete. Alabama's acreage was 99 percent complete, North Carolina showed 94 percent complete, and South Carolina's boll set was at 96 percent. All States in the region were ahead of the normal boll opening progress. Alabama was 38 percent open, 20 points ahead of normal, and Georgia, at 37 percent open, was 6 points ahead of the average. North and South Carolina showed open bolls at 25 percent and 31 percent, respectively. Hurricane Bonnie entered North Carolina on August 26, with extreme winds and torrential rainfall, and covered approximately one-half of the cotton acreage in the State. The two largest producing counties were on the western edge of the storm and weren't heavily affected. On August 30, one-fourth of North Carolina's acreage was in fair condition, 65 percent good, and 6 percent excellent. Alabama rated 34 percent of the crop in fair condition, 42 percent good, 13 percent very poor, and 9 percent poor. Yield potential in Alabama improved during the month due to recent rains. Sixty percent of the Georgia acreage was in fair or good condition on this same date, 13 percent was very poor, and one-fourth was poor. South Carolina showed one-third of the cotton in good condition and 38 percent as fair. The American-Pima production forecast, at 462,000 bales, is down 16 percent from 1997's output, and down 2,000 bales from August. The U.S. yield is indicated at 900 pounds per harvested acre, down 156 pounds from last year. California's production was unchanged from the August forecast. Producers applied growth regulators during the month to accelerate boll growth. High temperatures during August caused some boll shedding. Growers in western Fresno County have been treating for lygus and some fields have shown poor boll retention. Arizona's harvested area was increased 2,000 acres, to 15,000 acres. Texas' production was lowered 5,000 bales from last month, while production in Arizona and New Mexico was increased 2,000 bales and 1,000 bales, respectively. Ginnings totaled 523,950 running bales prior to September 1, compared with 358,700 running bales ginned to the same date last year and 342,400 running bales in 1996. Summer Potatoes: The September forecast of 1998 summer potato production is 19.5 million cwt, 9 percent above a year ago and 1 percent above the July 1 forecast. Harvest area is estimated at 70,800 acres, 7 percent above last year but 3 percent below two years ago. The average yield of 276 is 5 cwt above last year and 15 cwt above 1996. Yields are above last year in the Del-Mar-Va Peninsula, Texas, Colorado, and California. Colorado and Texas yields are record high, and California growers tied a record high. Colorado fields suffered some hail damage in Weld County. Yields are up from last year in Delaware, southern New Jersey, and Virginia, but the crop is short of yields produced two and three years ago. Most areas got off to a late start and were then hit by hot, dry weather during the summer. Harvest is finished in most States. Sizes are down and yields are lower than last year in the Midwest, New Jersey, New Mexico, and eastern Gulf region. Some acres were abandoned in New Mexico, Missouri, and Virginia. Fall Potatoes, 1997 Final: Production of 1997 fall potatoes is finalized at 423 million cwt, down 7 percent from the record large crop of 1996 but 5 percent above 1995 production. Farmers harvested 1.18 million acres of fall potatoes in 1997, down 6 percent from 1996 and 2 percent less than 1995. The average yield was 359 cwt per acre, down 5 cwt from 1996 but 25 cwt above 1995. Compared with annual estimates made last January, larger crops were registered in Idaho, Washington, Wisconsin, Massachusetts, and Rhode Island; smaller crops were seen in Colorado and New York. All Potatoes, 1997: Final production of potatoes from all four seasons in 1997 totaled 466 million cwt, down 7 percent from a year earlier but 5 percent above 1995. Area harvested is estimated at 1.35 million acres, down 6 percent from 1996 and 2 percent below 1995. Yield, averaging 346 cwt per acre, dropped 4 cwt from a year ago but was 24 cwt higher than two years ago. In 1997, all seasonal groups decreased in production from the previous year: Winter dropped 5 percent; spring slipped 3 percent; summer fell 8 percent; and fall potatoes lost 7 percent. Tobacco: U.S. all tobacco production for 1998 is forecast at 1.53 billion pounds, down 2 percent from the August 1 forecast and 14 percent below 1997 production. Harvested acres are expected to be 749,495 acres, down 8 percent from last year. Yields for 1998 are estimated to average 2,048 pounds per acre, down 55 pounds from last month and 153 pounds below the average for 1997. Flue-cured production is expected to total 772 million pounds, down 4 percent from August 1 and 26 percent below last year's output. Flue-cured growers plan to harvest 384,500 acres, 15 percent below last year. Flue-cured tobacco accounts for 51 percent of this year's total tobacco acreage. Flue-cured yields are expected to average 2,007 pounds per acre, down 78 pounds from August and 299 pounds below last year. North Carolina's flue-cured crop prospects declined from August 1 due to adverse weather conditions. The Piedmont area continues to suffer drought-like conditions, while the Eastern and Border Belt regions endured Hurricane Bonnie. Burley production is expected to total 673 million pounds, 4 percent above the 1997 production. Yield is expected to average 2,085 pounds per acre, 34 pounds below the August 1 forecast but 26 pounds above the average for 1997. Burley tobacco growers expect to harvest 322,500 acres, 2 percent above last year. Kentucky, with 72 percent of the 1998 burley production, expects to produce 3 percent more than a year ago. Kentucky's Burley tobacco is doing very well this year, even with the dry weather. Blue mold damage has been held to a minimum by the drier weather in August. As of August 30, 42 percent of the burley crop had been cut compared to 21 percent last year. Florida Citrus: Weather in Florida's citrus producing areas was mostly normal during August. There were frequent rains and thunderstorms, along with hot and humid conditions. Rainfall amounts were average depending on location. The ideal weather has produced an abundance of new growth on trees of all ages in the citrus belt. New crop fruit responded well during the month and made good progress. There are still some groves that have received very little production care during the spring and early summer. These groves have trees with yellowing foliage and fruit of varying sizes and quantities. Caretakers have been very active maintaining cover crops, spraying, fertilizing, and removing dead, sick, and unthrifty trees. California Citrus: Valencia orange picking was slow due to normal competition in the marketplace from stone fruits during August. Approximately two-thirds of the crop has been picked. Harvests of grapefruit and South Coast lemons were active. The new crop navel oranges were maturing well but with much smaller fruit size than last season. Sugarbeets: Planted acres were updated from the August crop report in Montana and North Dakota. Acres to be harvested in the 12 sugarbeet-producing states were forecasted at just under 1.46 million acres, 27,200 acres above 1997 but 5,300 acres below the previous forecast. Heavy rains drowned several thousand acres in the southern Red River Valley of North Dakota and Minnesota and accounts for most of the increase in abandonment. Production is forecasted at 31.1 million tons, 4 percent above the 1997 final production estimate, but slightly below the August 1 forecast. If realized, production would be the second largest on record. Dry weather and above normal temperatures have stressed the sugarbeet crop in Michigan and North Dakota, although early taproot development in Michigan partially offset the effects of the dry summer. Adequate moisture and cooler nighttime temperatures have been beneficial to the Colorado crop. In California, a cold, wet spring delayed planting and early crop development, which eventually delayed the beginning of the harvest season by nearly 4 weeks. Sugarcane: U.S. sugarcane production for sugar and seed in 1998 is expected to total 31.3 million tons, down 1 percent from 1997, but 1 percent above the August 1 estimate. The expected area for harvest, at 939,000 acres, is up 5,000 acres from the previous estimate and nearly 3 percent above last year. The forecasted yield, at 33.3 tons per acre, is 0.2 tons above the August estimate, but 1.4 tons below 1997. Rain improved crop prospects in Florida and mills were making preparations for beginning operations. Dry weather allowed harvest to begin early in Hawaii. Stands were good in Louisiana, but yields were expected to fall below 1997 due to the summer drought. In Texas, water supplies improved with recent rains, but additional rains will be needed to maintain yield prospects. Papayas: Hawaii fresh papaya production is estimated at 2.74 million pounds for August, 9 percent lower than July but 1 percent higher than a year ago. Area devoted to papayas totaled 3,645 acres in August, less than 1 percent lower than July but 32 percent lower than a year ago. Area harvested, totaling 2,400 acres, was 2 percent lower than last month but 2 percent higher than August 1997. August weather conditions were a mix of sunshine and showers. Soil moisture was considered adequate in areas dependent on rainfall. California Fruits and Nuts: Crop harvesting dominated growers' activities during August. Picking grapes for fresh use in the Coachella Valley was completed early in the month. The harvest of fresh use grapes in the San Joaquin Valley was active throughout August. Major varieties picked included Flame Seedless, Red Globe, and Thompson Seedless. Mildew, berry cracking, and premature bunch rot caused by heat and humidity were concerns to growers. By the end of the month, Thompson Seedless grapes were harvested for wine use and dried for raisins. Other wine type variety grapes were also harvested in late August. San Joaquin Valley stone fruit growers were picking nectarines, plums, and freestone peaches. Wind scarring, hail marks, and split pits were concerns for growers. The fig and clingstone peach harvests were active. Bartlett pear picking was active in the Sacramento-San Joaquin area and Lake and Mendocino counties throughout August. Asian pear picking was also active in the San Joaquin Valley. Gala and Granny Smith apples were picked. The almond harvest began in mid-August. Walnut growers whitewashed their trees for sunburn protection. Strawberry growers in the San Joaquin Valley were setting plants for the fall season. Hazelnuts: Hazelnut production in Oregon and Washington is forecast at 16,500 tons for 1998. This would be 65 percent smaller than last year's record crop and 11 percent less than the 1996 production. Oregon is expected to account for 16,450 tons and Washington the remaining 50 tons. Crop progress is about normal. The small production expectations result from several factors. First, trees need to recover from the record large 1997 crop. In addition, winter ice storms caused considerable damage to limbs, leading to pruning of fruiting wood. Some growers reported that many catkins fell off the trees in December. In the spring, cool, wet weather caused a light flower bloom and hindered pollen movement. The results of the hazelnut objective yield survey showed the number of nuts sampled per orchard was down 72 percent from last year and 12 percent from 1996. The percentage of good nuts was slightly higher than a year earlier and about two percentage points higher than 1996. The average dry weight of the good nuts was the highest since 1994, while the average size was the same as 1996. Brown stained nuts amounted to 2.7 percent of the sample, about 0.5 percentage point below last year and slightly higher than 1996. Walnuts: The 1998 California walnut production is forecast at 220,000 tons, down 18 percent from 1997's production of 269,000 tons. This is 14 percent below the July forecast of 255,000. The July forecast was based upon subjective information provided by growers. The September forecast is based upon the Walnut Objective Measurement Survey conducted August 3 through August 29, 1998. Survey data indicated an average nut set of 1,407, down 20 percent from last year's average of 1,753. The Hartley nut set was down 35 percent; Serr, up 4 percent; Franquette, down 30 percent; and Chandler, down 17 percent from 1997. Percent of sound kernels in-shell was 94.4 percent statewide. In-shell weight per nut was 21.4 grams, while the average in-shell suture measurement was 31.9 millimeters. The average length in-shell was 39.5 millimeters. Due to a very wet spring, the crop is about three weeks behind normal. Mid-season varieties are expected to be about average, while late variety production is expected to be lower than last year. Levels of sunburn are expected to be higher than last year. Pistachios: California pistachio production is forecast at a record 195 million pounds. The new record would be 8 percent above last year's record production. This forecast is based upon an objective measurement survey completed August 27, 1998. Production has become more stable as Pioneer Gold rootstock has replaced the older Atlantica rootstock. The Pioneer Gold generally bears heavy on even years and the Atlantica on odd years. The estimated average number of clusters per tree was 895. The estimated total number of filled nuts per tree was 9,542 as compared with 8,326 in 1997. The average number of nuts per cluster, including both filled and blank, was 13.8 nuts per cluster. The percent of nuts filled was 77.2 percent. The average in-hull weight per nut including blanks was 2.86 grams, compared to 2.78 grams last year. The in-hull cross suture measurement was 15.05 millimeters, compared to 14.92 millimeters in 1997. Average kernel weight in 1998 was 0.828 grams. The average suture was 10.31 millimeters, the average cross suture was 9.51 millimeters, and the kernel length was 16.48 millimeters. Due to the later than usual spring, the crop is approximately two to three weeks behind normal. Pecans: The September 1 forecast for pecan production is 185 million pounds (in-shell basis), down 45 percent from last year's 338 million pound crop. Improved varieties are expected to account for 141 million pounds, 76 percent of the total. Native varieties, at 44 million pounds, are 67 percent below the large 1997 crop. Arizona, whose entire crop is made up of improved varieties, is forecast at 17.5 million pounds, the same as last year. Many growers reported heavy wind damage to blossoms and pollinization, as well as freeze damage. However, an increase in acreage is expected to counter the reduced Arizona yield. North Carolina, at 2.5 million pounds, is the only state forecasting a larger production for 1998. Texas is forecast at 40 million pounds, down 56 percent or 50 million pounds from 1997. Most of the Texas production drop is expected in the native and seedling varieties, which produced a large crop last year. The extremely dry conditions during critical development has impacted the Texas crop. The Georgia pecan crop is expected to total 60 million pounds, down 43 percent from a year earlier. Dry conditions last fall produced a light nut set for the 1998 crop. Production expectations have been further reduced by excessive nut drop due to June and July dry conditions. The Oklahoma pecan crop, which comes primarily from native trees, is forecast at 10 million pounds, down 25 million from last year. The cyclical nature of native pecans, combined with dry weather conditions, points to the lower number. Virtually all states reported that lack of moisture will be the main reason for smaller crops. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Reliability of September 1 Crop Production Forecasts Survey Procedures: Objective yield and farm operator surveys were conducted between August 25 and September 3 to gather information on expected yield as of September 1. The objective yield surveys for wheat, corn, soybeans, and cotton were conducted in the major producing States that usually account for about 75 percent of the U.S. production. Randomly selected plots were revisited to make current counts. The items counted within the selected plots depend on the crop and the maturity of that crop. In all cases, number of plants are recorded along with other measurements that provide information to forecast the number of heads, ears, pods, or bolls and their weight. The counts are used with similar data from previous years to develop a projected biological yield. The five-year average harvesting loss is subtracted to obtain a net yield. The plots are revisited each month until crop maturity when the fruit is harvested and weighed. After the farm operator has harvested the sample field, another plot is sampled to obtain current year harvesting loss. The farm operator survey was conducted primarily by telephone with some use of mail and personal interviewers. Approximately 15,000 producers were interviewed during the survey period and asked questions about probable yield. Estimating Procedures: National and State level objective yield and grower reported survey estimates were reviewed for errors, reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. The survey data were also reviewed considering weather patterns and crop progress compared to previous month and previous years. Each State Statistical Office submits their analysis of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State analysis to prepare the published September 1 forecast. Revision Policy: The September 1 production forecast will not be revised; instead a new forecast will be made each month throughout the growing season. At the end of the marketing year administrative records and a balance sheet are utilized using carryover stocks, production, exports, processing, feeding, and ending stocks. Revisions are then made if data relationships warrant changes. Harvested acres may be revised any time a production forecast is made if there is strong evidence that the intended harvested area has changed since the last estimate. Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the September 1 production forecasts, the "Root Mean Square Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the September 1 production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of squared percentage deviations for the 1978-1997 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent years. For example, the "Root Mean Square Error" for the September 1 corn for grain production forecast is 5.8 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current production forecast will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 5.8 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 10.0 percent. Also, shown in the following table is a 10-year record for selected crops of the differences between the September 1 forecast and the final estimates. Using corn again as an example, changes between the September 1 forecast and the final estimate during the past 10 years have averaged 453 million bushels, ranging from 98 million to 893 million bushels. The September 1 forecast has been below the final estimate 7 times and above 3 times. This does not imply that the September 1 corn forecast this year is likely to understate or overstate final production. For most crops, the number of years the forecasts have been below or above the final estimate is about equally distributed. Reliability of September 1 Crop Production Forecasts -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Root Mean : 10-Year Record of : : Square Error : Differences Between Forecast : : Confidence : and Final Estimate : : Interval :------------------------------------ Crop :Unit :---------------: Quantity : Years : : : :------------------------------------ : : 95 : 90 : : : :Below:Above : :Percent:Percent:Average:Smallest:Largest:Final:Final -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : ------ Million ------ Number : : Corn For Grain :Bu : 5.8 10.0 453 98 893 7 3 Sorghum for Grain :Bu : 7.3 12.7 43 1 115 6 4 Barley :Bu : 3.5 6.2 12 3 38 5 5 All Wheat :Bu : 1.4 2.5 32 2 97 3 7 Durum :Bu : 5.7 9.9 5 1 12 3 7 Other Spring :Bu : 3.6 6.3 18 1 62 4 6 Rice :Cwt : 4.3 7.3 6 0 16 5 5 Soybeans for Beans :Bu : 5.2 9.0 96 19 201 7 3 Cotton :Bales: 6.0 10.4 825 84 2,366 6 4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. C. Ray Halley, Chief (202) 720-2127 Field Crops Section Bill Dowdy, Head (202) 720-3843 Jerry Ramirez - Soybeans, Minor Oilseeds (202) 720-7369 Rhonda Brandt - Corn (202) 720-7621 Herman Ellison - Peanuts, Rice, Barley (202) 720-7688 Doug Hartwig - Hay, Sorghum (202) 720-8843 Roger Latham - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings (202) 720-5944 Mark E. Miller - Oats, Sugar Crops, Weekly Crop Weather (202) 720-7621 Vaughn Siegenthaler - Wheat, Rye (202) 720-8068 Fruit, Vegetable & Special Crops Section Dean Groskurth, Head (202) 720-3843 Arvin Budge - Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes (202) 720-4285 Dave DeWalt - Citrus, Tropical Fruits (202) 720-5412 Howard Hill - Cherries, Berries, Prunes, Plums, Cranberries, Grapes, Maple Syrup (202) 720-7235 Dave Ranek - Nuts, Floriculture (202) 720-4215 Linda Simpson - Noncitrus Fruits, Mint, Dry Beans & Peas, Mushrooms (202) 690-0270 Biz Wallingsford - Fresh and Processing Vegetables, Onions (202) 720-2157 Debbie Williams - Apples, Strawberries, Tobacco (202) 720-4288 Harry Nishimoto - Hops (360) 902-1940 The next "Crop Production" report will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET on October 9, 1998. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination in all its programs on the basis of race, color, national origin, gender, religion, age, disability, political beliefs, sexual orientation, and marital or family status. (Not all prohibited bases apply to all programs.) Persons with disabilities who require alternative means for communication of program information (braille, large print, audiotape, etc.) should contact the USDA's TARGET Center at 202-720-2600 (voice and TDD). To file a complaint of discrimination, write USDA, Director, Office of Civil Rights, Room 326-W, Whitten Building, 14th and Independence Avenue, SW, Washington, D.C., 20250-9410, or call 202-720-5964 (voice or TDD). USDA is an equal opportunity provider and employer. ACCESS TO REPORTS!! For your convenience, there are several ways to obtain NASS reports, data products, and services: INTERNET ACCESS All NASS reports are available free of charge on the worldwide Internet. 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