Cr Pr 2-2 (11-98) Crop Production National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released November 10, 1998, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Crop Production" call (202) 720-2127, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. Corn Production Up 1 Percent Soybeans and All Cotton Down Slightly Corn for grain production is forecast at 9.84 billion bushels, up 1 percent from last month and up 5 percent from 1997. Based on November 1 conditions, yields are expected to average 133.3 bushels per acre, up 1.3 bushels per acre from last month and up 6.3 bushels from a year ago. If realized, this would be the second largest production and the second highest yield on record. Yield prospects increased in Iowa, Nebraska, Ohio, and Wisconsin due to ideal weather conditions during October. The yields in the 3 other major producing states, Illinois, Indiana, and Minnesota, remained unchanged. Acreage for harvest is estimated at 73.8 million acres, unchanged from last month and virtually unchanged from 1997. Soybean production is forecast at a record high 2.76 billion bushels, down fractionally from October 1, but 2 percent above last year's record of 2.70 billion bushels. The yield forecast, at 38.6 bushels per acre, is down 0.1 bushels from last month and is 0.2 bushels below the 1997 final yield. If realized, this year's soybean yield will be the third highest yield on record. In the major producing states, the forecasted yields decreased by 2 bushels in Arkansas and Missouri. Yield increased 3 bushels in Ohio but remained unchanged in the other major producing states. Acreage for harvest is estimated at a record 71.6 million acres, unchanged from October 1 but up 3 percent from 1997. As of November 1, the soybean harvest was 89 percent complete. All cotton production is forecast at 13.2 million bales, down 57,500 bales from last month and down 30 percent from 1997. Yield is expected to average 612 pounds per harvested acre, down 4 pounds from last month and down 68 pounds from last year. Georgia's production was lowered 100,000 bales from the October forecast, as yield potential continued to decline. Arkansas production was increased 50,000 bales. On November 8, U.S. harvest was three-fourths complete, compared to the 5-year average of 69 percent. This report was approved on November 10, 1998. Secretary of Agriculture Dan Glickman Agricultural Statistics Board Chairperson Rich Allen Contents Page Corn . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4 Plant Population per Acre . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 Number of Ears per Acre . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 Row Widths. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 Cotton . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 Cumulative Boll Counts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 Cottonseed . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9 Crop Comments. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31 Crop Summary (Domestic Units) Area Planted and Harvested. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23 Yield and Production. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24 Crop Summary (Metric Units) Area Planted and Harvested. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26 Yield and Production. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27 Crop Moisture Map. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29 Drought Severity Map . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 Fruits and Nuts Production (Domestic Units). . . . . . . . . . . 25 Fruits and Nuts Production (Metric Units). . . . . . . . . . . . 28 Hazelnuts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 Information Contacts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40 Papayas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 Peanuts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9 Potatoes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .7 Percent of Major Varieties Planted. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22 Reliability. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38 Rice . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6 Sorghum. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5 Soybeans . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .8 Pods with Beans per 18 Square Feet. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 Row Widths. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 Sugarbeets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 Sugarcane. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 Tobacco. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 Weather Summary. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31 Corn for Grain: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 1997 and Forecasted November 1, 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production :------------------------------------------------------------------------- State: : : : 1998 : : : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 :-------------------: 1997 : 1998 : : : : Oct 1 : Nov 1 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -- 1,000 Acres -- -------- Bushels -------- --- 1,000 Bushels -- : AL : 265 290 87.0 55.0 60.0 23,055 17,400 AZ 1/ : 50 25 170.0 170.0 170.0 8,500 4,250 AR 1/ : 175 210 125.0 115.0 115.0 21,875 24,150 CA : 260 255 170.0 155.0 155.0 44,200 39,525 CO : 1,030 1,070 146.0 140.0 140.0 150,380 149,800 CT 2/ : DE : 144 144 110.0 100.0 100.0 15,840 14,400 FL 1/ : 80 55 80.0 60.0 60.0 6,400 3,300 GA : 500 400 110.0 80.0 80.0 55,000 32,000 ID 1/ : 40 50 155.0 160.0 160.0 6,200 8,000 IL : 11,050 10,400 129.0 143.0 143.0 1,425,450 1,487,200 IN : 5,850 5,650 123.0 137.0 137.0 719,550 774,050 IA : 12,000 12,400 138.0 143.0 145.0 1,656,000 1,798,000 KS : 2,700 2,850 143.0 144.0 144.0 386,100 410,400 KY : 1,170 1,250 103.0 118.0 113.0 120,510 141,250 LA 1/ : 490 650 117.0 80.0 80.0 57,330 52,000 ME 2/ : MD : 415 420 90.0 100.0 95.0 37,350 39,900 MA 2/ : MI : 2,250 2,000 117.0 105.0 110.0 263,250 220,000 MN : 6,450 6,750 133.0 150.0 150.0 857,850 1,012,500 MS 1/ : 470 515 107.0 80.0 80.0 50,290 41,200 MO : 2,870 2,700 116.0 114.0 111.0 332,920 299,700 MT 1/ : 14 15 135.0 130.0 130.0 1,890 1,950 NE : 8,725 8,550 132.0 143.0 145.0 1,151,700 1,239,750 NH 2/ : NJ 1/ : 93 98 108.0 124.0 124.0 10,044 12,152 NM 1/ : 85 75 175.0 170.0 170.0 14,875 12,750 NY : 650 700 116.0 114.0 120.0 75,400 84,000 NC : 870 780 89.0 70.0 70.0 77,430 54,600 ND : 605 825 99.0 103.0 105.0 59,895 86,625 OH : 3,450 3,200 134.0 141.0 144.0 462,300 460,800 OK 1/ : 190 240 140.0 120.0 120.0 26,600 28,800 OR 1/ : 22 28 195.0 180.0 180.0 4,290 5,040 PA : 985 1,050 99.0 108.0 108.0 97,515 113,400 RI 2/ : SC : 335 275 97.0 40.0 40.0 32,495 11,000 SD : 3,400 3,850 98.0 110.0 118.0 333,200 454,300 TN : 650 690 102.0 100.0 98.0 66,300 67,620 TX : 1,800 1,850 138.0 95.0 95.0 248,400 175,750 UT 1/ : 23 24 135.0 133.0 133.0 3,105 3,192 VT 2/ : VA : 325 360 93.0 90.0 80.0 30,225 28,800 WA 1/ : 95 95 190.0 185.0 185.0 18,050 17,575 WV 1/ : 37 40 95.0 105.0 105.0 3,515 4,200 WI : 3,050 2,900 132.0 132.0 137.0 402,600 397,300 WY 1/ : 57 60 135.0 124.0 124.0 7,695 7,440 : US : 73,720 73,789 127.0 132.0 133.3 9,365,574 9,836,069 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast. 2/ Not estimated. Sorghum for Grain: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 1997 and Forecasted November 1, 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production :------------------------------------------------------------------------- State: : : : 1998 : : : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 :-------------------: 1997 : 1998 : : : : Oct 1 : Nov 1 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres -------- Bushels ------- 1,000 Bushels : AL 1/ : 8 6 50.0 40.0 40.0 400 240 AR : 150 130 74.0 57.0 55.0 11,100 7,150 CO : 140 150 40.0 48.0 57.0 5,600 8,550 GA 1/ : 40 30 40.0 37.0 37.0 1,600 1,110 IL : 155 145 91.0 88.0 88.0 14,105 12,760 KS : 3,500 3,300 78.0 77.0 77.0 273,000 254,100 KY 1/ : 12 17 75.0 83.0 83.0 900 1,411 LA : 98 100 77.0 60.0 60.0 7,546 6,000 MS : 33 28 75.0 60.0 60.0 2,475 1,680 MO : 440 340 93.0 85.0 79.0 40,920 26,860 NE : 750 700 82.0 98.0 98.0 61,500 68,600 NM : 235 80 44.0 50.0 50.0 10,340 4,000 NC 1/ : 11 14 50.0 60.0 60.0 550 840 OK : 490 350 50.0 45.0 45.0 24,500 15,750 SC 1/ : 4 3 40.0 35.0 35.0 160 105 SD : 160 125 71.0 68.0 73.0 11,360 9,125 TN 1/ : 15 20 80.0 75.0 75.0 1,200 1,500 TX : 3,150 2,300 59.0 44.0 44.0 185,850 101,200 : US : 9,391 7,838 69.5 66.5 66.5 653,106 520,981 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast. Rice: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 1997 and Forecasted November 1, 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production :------------------------------------------------------------------------- State: : : : 1998 : : : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 :-------------------: 1997 : 1998 : : : : Oct 1 : Nov 1 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres --------- Pounds -------- ---- 1,000 Cwt --- : AR : 1,370 1,525 5,650 5,750 5,800 77,370 88,450 CA : 510 478 8,300 7,400 7,000 42,341 33,460 LA : 548 588 4,630 4,450 4,450 25,364 26,166 MS : 238 218 5,800 5,400 5,400 13,804 11,772 MO 1/ : 109 124 5,300 5,100 5,100 5,777 6,324 TX : 259 254 5,500 5,600 5,600 14,240 14,224 : US : 3,034 3,187 5,896 5,696 5,660 178,896 180,396 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast. Rice: Production by Class, United States, 1996-97 and Forecasted November 1, 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : Year : Long Grain : Medium Grain : Short Grain : All : : : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : 1996 : 113,351 56,901 1,069 171,321 1997 : 121,647 55,833 1,416 178,896 1998 1/ : 132,366 46,398 1,632 180,396 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Indicated November 1, 1998, rice class estimates are based on a 5-year average of class percentages. The class percentages are adjusted as data become available through the growing season. Potatoes: Area Planted, Area Harvested, Yield, and Production, by Seasonal Group, State, and United States, 1997-98 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Seasonal Group: Area Planted : Area Harvested : Yield : Production and :----------------------------------------------------------------- State : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 :1997 :1998 : 1997 : 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :----------- 1,000 Acres ---------- -- Cwt -- --- 1,000 Cwt -- : Winter 1/ : Total : 15.6 15.5 15.4 15.0 203 199 3,124 2,980 : Spring 1/ : Total : 88.3 93.2 86.2 89.8 252 217 21,749 19,455 : Summer 1/ : Total : 68.6 74.4 65.9 70.8 271 276 17,875 19,533 : Fall 2/ : CA : 10.5 10.3 10.5 10.3 400 360 4,200 3,708 CO : 77.0 75.8 76.9 75.7 325 335 24,993 25,360 ID : 400.0 415.0 398.0 413.0 353 333 140,314 137,725 10 SW Co : 27.0 28.0 27.0 28.0 470 450 12,690 12,600 Other ID : 373.0 387.0 371.0 385.0 344 325 127,624 125,125 IN : 5.3 5.3 4.9 5.0 270 350 1,323 1,750 ME : 71.0 65.0 71.0 64.5 270 290 19,170 18,705 MA : 2.8 2.9 2.8 2.8 270 225 756 630 MI : 48.0 48.0 47.5 47.5 300 290 14,250 13,775 MN : 77.0 82.0 73.0 77.0 280 290 20,440 22,330 MT : 10.4 10.6 10.4 10.6 320 310 3,328 3,286 NE : 19.6 22.0 19.3 21.8 390 400 7,527 8,720 NV : 7.0 7.0 6.9 7.0 430 400 2,967 2,800 NM : 6.3 6.2 6.3 5.9 420 380 2,646 2,242 NY : 28.5 27.6 28.0 27.0 275 275 7,700 7,425 ND : 125.0 126.0 105.0 122.0 205 235 21,525 28,670 OH : 5.3 5.1 5.0 4.8 235 250 1,175 1,200 OR : 54.5 59.0 53.5 58.0 508 450 27,161 26,110 Malheur : 11.0 11.5 10.9 11.4 440 410 4,796 4,674 Other OR : 43.5 47.5 42.6 46.6 525 460 22,365 21,436 PA : 15.0 14.5 14.5 14.0 220 240 3,190 3,360 RI : 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 270 250 216 200 SD : 4.5 5.0 4.2 4.6 250 230 1,050 1,058 UT : 3.1 2.7 3.1 2.6 295 280 915 728 WA : 152.0 160.0 152.0 160.0 580 560 88,160 89,600 WI : 84.0 84.0 83.5 83.0 355 355 29,643 29,465 WY : 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 280 300 140 150 Total :1,208.1 1,235.3 1,177.6 1,218.4 359 352 422,789 428,997 : US :1,380.6 1,418.4 1,345.1 1,394.0 346 338 465,537 470,965 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast. 2/ Updated planted and harvested acreage from the July 10, 1998, "Crop Production" report. Soybeans for Beans: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 1997 and Forecasted November 1, 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production :------------------------------------------------------------------------- State: : : : 1998 : : : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 :-------------------: 1997 : 1998 : : : : Oct 1 : Nov 1 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -- 1,000 Acres -- -------- Bushels ------- --- 1,000 Bushels -- : AL : 385 320 25.0 24.0 24.0 9,625 7,680 AR : 3,550 3,350 30.5 27.0 25.0 108,275 83,750 DE : 219 215 29.0 26.0 28.0 6,351 6,020 FL 1/ : 38 35 26.0 23.0 23.0 988 805 GA : 410 290 21.0 21.0 20.0 8,610 5,800 IL : 9,950 10,650 43.0 45.0 45.0 427,850 479,250 IN : 5,300 5,600 43.5 42.0 42.0 230,550 235,200 IA : 10,400 10,450 46.0 46.0 46.0 478,400 480,700 KS : 2,400 2,500 37.0 34.0 31.0 88,800 77,500 KY : 1,280 1,230 34.5 31.0 29.0 44,160 35,670 LA : 1,350 1,100 29.0 22.0 20.0 39,150 22,000 MD : 525 460 28.0 26.0 26.0 14,700 11,960 MI : 1,890 1,890 38.5 37.0 38.0 72,765 71,820 MN : 6,600 6,900 39.0 41.0 41.0 257,400 282,900 MS : 2,070 1,950 31.0 26.0 25.0 64,170 48,750 MO : 4,850 5,100 36.0 36.0 34.0 174,600 173,400 NE : 3,450 3,750 40.5 44.0 44.0 139,725 165,000 NJ 1/ : 132 118 30.0 30.0 30.0 3,960 3,540 NY 2/ : 97 37.0 37.0 3,589 NC : 1,330 1,425 29.0 25.0 25.0 38,570 35,625 ND : 1,190 1,690 29.0 31.0 31.0 34,510 52,390 OH : 4,390 4,490 44.0 41.0 44.0 193,160 197,560 OK 1/ : 320 380 30.0 23.0 23.0 9,600 8,740 PA 1/ : 365 390 39.0 40.0 40.0 14,235 15,600 SC : 610 540 22.0 19.0 19.0 13,420 10,260 SD : 3,450 3,550 35.0 38.0 40.0 120,750 142,000 TN : 1,280 1,200 34.0 30.0 30.0 43,520 36,000 TX : 400 370 28.0 22.0 22.0 11,200 8,140 VA : 490 480 23.0 22.0 22.0 11,270 10,560 WI : 960 1,050 44.0 46.0 48.0 42,240 50,400 : US : 69,584 71,570 38.8 38.7 38.6 2,702,554 2,762,609 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast. 2/ NY included beginning with the 1998 crop year. Peanuts: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 1997 and Forecasted November 1, 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production 1/ :------------------------------------------------------------------------- State: : : : 1998 : : : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 :-------------------: 1997 : 1998 : : : : Oct 1 : Nov 1 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : --- 1,000 Acres -- --------- Pounds -------- --- 1,000 Pounds --- : AL : 193.0 196.0 1,930 2,000 2,000 372,490 392,000 FL : 84.0 81.0 2,715 2,200 2,350 228,060 190,350 GA : 519.0 533.0 2,570 2,500 2,600 1,333,830 1,385,800 NM : 17.3 20.0 2,700 2,500 2,600 46,710 52,000 NC : 121.0 125.0 2,720 3,000 3,100 329,120 387,500 OK : 77.0 75.0 2,400 2,200 2,300 184,800 172,500 SC : 10.5 10.5 2,900 1,900 1,900 30,450 19,950 TX : 315.0 360.0 2,610 2,500 2,500 822,150 900,000 VA : 74.0 75.0 2,560 2,650 2,750 189,440 206,250 : US : 1,410.8 1,475.5 2,507 2,448 2,512 3,537,050 3,706,350 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Estimates comprised of quota and non-quota peanuts. Cottonseed: Production, United States, 1996-97 and Forecasted November 1, 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Production State :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1996 : 1997 : 1998 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Tons : US : 7,143.5 6,934.6 4,963.0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on a 3-year average lint-seed ratio. Cotton: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Type, State, and United States, 1997 and Forecasted November 1, 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production 1/ Type :---------------------------------------------------------------------- and : : : : 1998 : : State : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 :-------------------: 1997 : 1998 : : : : Oct 1 : Nov 1 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :--- 1,000 Acres -- -------- Pounds -------- 1,000 Bales 2/ : Upland : AL : 442.0 455.0 597 575 601 550.0 570.0 AZ : 324.0 249.0 1,255 1,137 1,118 847.0 580.0 AR : 940.0 855.0 859 646 674 1,683.0 1,200.0 CA : 875.0 650.0 1,202 923 923 2,191.0 1,250.0 FL 3/ : 99.0 80.0 577 498 498 119.1 83.0 GA : 1,425.0 1,300.0 646 554 517 1,919.0 1,400.0 KS 3/ : 10.0 14.0 418 501 501 8.7 14.6 LA : 625.0 540.0 757 596 578 986.0 650.0 MS : 970.0 915.0 901 787 776 1,821.0 1,480.0 MO : 375.0 330.0 723 567 524 565.0 360.0 NM 3/ : 66.0 59.0 676 781 781 93.0 96.0 NC : 665.0 695.0 671 640 656 930.0 950.0 OK : 190.0 120.0 462 480 500 183.0 125.0 SC : 285.0 280.0 691 540 566 410.0 330.0 TN : 480.0 445.0 662 593 593 662.0 550.0 TX : 5,150.0 3,050.0 479 472 472 5,140.0 3,000.0 VA 3/ : 100.0 91.0 659 770 770 137.2 146.0 : US :13,021.0 10,128.0 673 609 606 18,245.0 12,784.6 : Amer-Pima: AZ : 22.0 15.0 912 768 768 41.8 24.0 CA : 184.0 184.0 1,141 939 900 437.2 345.0 NM : 11.0 10.5 641 800 777 14.7 17.0 TX : 32.0 37.0 815 778 778 54.3 60.0 : US : 249.0 246.5 1,056 899 868 548.0 446.0 : All : AL : 442.0 455.0 597 575 601 550.0 570.0 AZ : 346.0 264.0 1,233 1,116 1,098 888.8 604.0 AR : 940.0 855.0 859 646 674 1,683.0 1,200.0 CA : 1,059.0 834.0 1,191 927 918 2,628.2 1,595.0 FL 3/ : 99.0 80.0 577 498 498 119.1 83.0 GA : 1,425.0 1,300.0 646 554 517 1,919.0 1,400.0 KS 3/ : 10.0 14.0 418 501 501 8.7 14.6 LA : 625.0 540.0 757 596 578 986.0 650.0 MS : 970.0 915.0 901 787 776 1,821.0 1,480.0 MO : 375.0 330.0 723 567 524 565.0 360.0 NM : 77.0 69.5 671 784 780 107.7 113.0 NC : 665.0 695.0 671 640 656 930.0 950.0 OK : 190.0 120.0 462 480 500 183.0 125.0 SC : 285.0 280.0 691 540 566 410.0 330.0 TN : 480.0 445.0 662 593 593 662.0 550.0 TX : 5,182.0 3,087.0 481 476 476 5,194.3 3,060.0 VA 3/ : 100.0 91.0 659 770 770 137.2 146.0 : US :13,270.0 10,374.5 680 616 612 18,793.0 13,230.6 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Production ginned and to be ginned. 2/ 480-Lb. net weight bales. 3/ Estimates for current year carried forward from previous forecast. Tobacco: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 1996-97 and Forecasted November 1, 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production State:------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 : 1996 : 1997 : 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ Acres ----- ---- Pounds --- -------- 1,000 Pounds -------- : CT : 2,270 2,725 1,586 1,678 3,795 3,600 4,573 FL : 7,300 7,000 2,610 2,440 20,100 19,053 17,080 GA : 43,000 42,000 2,075 2,100 113,620 89,225 88,200 IN : 8,900 8,500 2,100 2,000 14,972 18,690 17,000 KY : 230,500 236,400 2,162 2,030 395,542 498,328 479,825 MD : 8,000 7,500 1,500 1,450 10,000 12,000 10,875 MA : 1,200 1,165 1,731 1,514 1,212 2,077 1,764 MO 1/ : 3,000 2,800 2,345 2,300 6,021 7,035 6,440 NC : 317,400 264,600 2,304 2,102 585,542 731,419 556,090 OH : 11,400 9,800 1,956 1,800 12,640 22,300 17,640 PA : 7,600 7,200 2,021 1,986 15,464 15,360 14,301 SC : 54,000 45,000 2,340 2,250 117,810 126,360 101,250 TN : 59,480 63,580 1,922 1,936 109,888 114,292 123,118 VA : 53,080 47,580 2,215 2,157 103,543 117,576 102,612 WV 1/ : 1,800 1,800 1,700 1,500 2,040 3,060 2,700 WI : 2,550 2,300 2,231 2,009 5,162 5,690 4,620 : US : 811,480 749,950 2,201 2,064 1,517,351 1,786,065 1,548,088 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast. Tobacco: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Class, Type, State, and United States, 1997 and Forecasted November 1, 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production Class and Type :--------------------------------------------------------- : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----- Acres ----- --- Pounds -- --- 1,000 Pounds -- : Class 1, Flue-cured : Type 11, Old Belts : NC : 90,000 74,000 2,025 2,100 182,250 155,400 VA : 41,000 35,000 2,315 2,200 94,915 77,000 US : 131,000 109,000 2,116 2,132 277,165 232,400 Type 12, Eastern NC : Belt : NC : 179,000 150,000 2,445 2,150 437,655 322,500 Type 13, NC Border & : SC Belt : NC : 40,000 32,000 2,455 2,000 98,200 64,000 SC : 54,000 45,000 2,340 2,250 126,360 101,250 US : 94,000 77,000 2,389 2,146 224,560 165,250 Type 14, GA-FL Belt : FL : 7,300 7,000 2,610 2,440 19,053 17,080 GA : 43,000 42,000 2,075 2,100 89,225 88,200 US : 50,300 49,000 2,153 2,149 108,278 105,280 Total 11-14 : 454,300 385,000 2,306 2,144 1,047,658 825,430 Class 2, Fire-cured : Type 21, VA Belt : VA : 1,200 1,500 1,640 1,600 1,968 2,400 Type 22, Eastern : District : KY : 3,750 3,800 2,560 2,400 9,600 9,120 TN : 7,400 7,400 2,480 2,500 18,352 18,500 US : 11,150 11,200 2,507 2,466 27,952 27,620 Type 23, Western : District : KY : 3,600 3,700 2,970 3,100 10,692 11,470 TN : 600 600 2,750 2,750 1,650 1,650 US : 4,200 4,300 2,939 3,051 12,342 13,120 Total 21-23 : 16,550 17,000 2,554 2,538 42,262 43,140 Class 3, Air-cured : Class 3A, Light : Air-cured : Type 31, Burley : IN : 8,900 8,500 2,100 2,000 18,690 17,000 KY : 220,000 225,000 2,140 2,000 470,800 450,000 MO 1/ : 3,000 2,800 2,345 2,300 7,035 6,440 NC : 8,400 8,600 1,585 1,650 13,314 14,190 OH : 11,400 9,800 1,960 1,800 22,300 17,640 TN : 51,000 55,000 1,830 1,850 93,330 101,750 VA : 10,800 11,000 1,905 2,100 20,574 23,100 WV 1/ : 1,800 1,800 1,700 1,500 3,060 2,700 US : 315,300 322,500 2,059 1,962 649,103 632,820 Type 32, Southern MD : Belt : MD : 8,000 7,500 1,500 1,450 12,000 10,875 PA : 3,000 2,700 1,900 1,880 5,700 5,076 US : 11,000 10,200 1,609 1,564 17,700 15,951 Total 31-32 : 326,300 332,700 2,044 1,950 666,803 648,771 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --continued Tobacco: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Class, Type, State, and United States, 1997 and Forecasted November 1, 1998 (continued) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production Class and Type :--------------------------------------------------------- : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----- Acres ----- --- Pounds -- --- 1,000 Pounds --- : Class 3, Air-cured : Class 3B, Dark : Air-cured : Type 35, One Sucker : Belt : KY : 2,050 2,500 2,290 2,350 4,695 5,875 TN : 480 580 2,000 2,100 960 1,218 US : 2,530 3,080 2,235 2,303 5,655 7,093 Type 36, Green River : Belt : KY : 1,100 1,400 2,310 2,400 2,541 3,360 Type 37, VA Sun-cured: Belt : VA : 80 80 1,485 1,400 119 112 Total 35-37 : 3,710 4,560 2,241 2,317 8,315 10,565 Class 4, Cigar Filler : Type 41, PA Seedleaf : PA : 4,600 4,500 2,100 2,050 9,660 9,225 Class 5, Cigar Binder : Class 5A, CT Valley : Binder : Type 51, CT Valley : Broadleaf : CT : 1,230 1,400 1,730 1,790 2,128 2,506 MA : 780 825 1,850 1,590 1,443 1,312 US : 2,010 2,225 1,777 1,716 3,571 3,818 Class 5B, WI Binder : Type 54, Southern WI: WI : 1,800 1,600 2,330 2,100 4,194 3,360 Type 55, Northern WI: WI : 750 700 1,995 1,800 1,496 1,260 Total 54-55 : 2,550 2,300 2,231 2,009 5,690 4,620 Total 51-55 : 4,560 4,525 2,031 1,865 9,261 8,438 Class 6, Cigar Wrapper: Type 61, CT Valley : Shade-grown : CT : 1,040 1,325 1,415 1,560 1,472 2,067 MA : 420 340 1,510 1,330 634 452 US : 1,460 1,665 1,442 1,513 2,106 2,519 All Cigar Types : Total 41-61 : 10,620 10,690 1,980 1,888 21,027 20,182 : All Tobacco : 811,480 749,950 2,201 2,064 1,786,065 1,548,088 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast. Sugarbeets: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 1996-97 and Forecasted November 1, 1998 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production State :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 : 1996 : 1997 : 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -- 1,000 Acres -- ---- Tons ---- ------- 1,000 Tons ------- : CA : 99.0 101.0 30.0 27.5 2,419 2,970 2,778 CO : 66.4 59.8 19.7 22.2 1,032 1,308 1,328 ID : 197.0 203.0 26.4 26.4 4,563 5,210 5,359 MI : 160.0 174.0 19.0 16.5 1,963 3,040 2,871 MN : 446.0 461.0 18.5 21.1 7,971 8,251 9,727 MT : 58.3 63.0 21.0 22.3 1,300 1,224 1,405 NE : 60.3 45.9 16.8 19.9 913 1,013 913 NM : 1.6 30.6 27 49 ND : 227.5 240.0 18.5 22.0 4,213 4,205 5,280 OH : 0.9 1.0 19.0 18.0 86 17 18 OR : 17.4 17.5 28.4 25.1 416 494 439 TX : 15.0 18.0 242 270 WA : 18.0 36.5 33.1 33.5 461 595 1,223 WY : 60.9 53.5 20.4 20.5 1,074 1,240 1,097 : Oth Sts : : US : 1,428.3 1,456.2 20.9 22.3 26,680 29,886 32,438 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Relates to year of intended harvest except for overwintered spring planted beets in CA. Sugarcane for Sugar and Seed: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 1996-97 and Forecasted November 1, 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield 1/ : Production 1/ State:------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 : 1996 : 1997 : 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres ---- Tons ---- -------- 1,000 Tons -------- : FL : 440.0 448.0 36.9 36.0 14,498 16,236 16,129 HI : 34.2 34.0 88.0 82.0 3,639 3,009 2,788 LA : 410.0 420.0 28.2 27.0 10,323 11,546 11,340 TX : 29.8 31.5 30.3 29.9 1,002 902 942 : US : 914.0 933.5 34.7 33.4 29,462 31,693 31,199 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Net tons. Hazelnuts: Utilized Production, In-shell Basis, by State and United States, 1996-97 and Forecasted November 1, 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Utilized Production State :----------------------------------------------------------- : 1996 : 1997 : 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Tons : OR : 18,400 46,850 16,450 WA 1/ : 100 150 50 : US : 18,500 47,000 16,500 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast. Papayas: Area and Fresh Production, by Month, Hawaii, 1997-98 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area : Fresh Production :------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : Total in Crop : Harvested : : :---------------------------------------------: 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------------- Acres ---------------- 1,000 Pounds : Sep : 3,070 3,745 1,955 2,335 2,990 2,590 Oct : 3,135 3,785 1,955 2,305 3,415 2,850 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Corn for Grain: Objective Yield Data The National Agricultural Statistics Service is conducting objective yield surveys in 7 corn producing states during 1998. Randomly selected plots in corn for grain fields are visited monthly from August through harvest to obtain specific counts and measurements. Data in these tables are rounded actual field counts from this survey. Corn for Grain: Plant Population per Acre, Selected States, 1994-98 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State : Month : 1994 : 1995 : 1996 : 1997 : 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Number : : IL : Sep : 23,300 24,000 24,350 25,000 25,550 : Nov : 23,200 23,650 24,200 24,900 25,400 : : IN : Sep : 22,800 23,900 23,550 23,700 24,350 : Nov : 22,850 24,000 23,500 23,800 24,300 : : IA : Sep : 24,000 24,800 25,000 25,700 25,700 : Nov : 23,950 24,650 24,950 25,500 25,600 : : MN : Sep : 26,100 26,400 26,500 26,300 27,750 : Nov : 26,000 26,350 26,600 26,600 27,650 : : NE : Sep : 21,900 22,600 22,750 22,850 23,350 : Nov : 21,700 22,500 22,700 22,850 23,050 : : OH : Sep : 22,800 23,400 23,100 23,450 25,350 : Nov : 22,900 23,300 22,750 23,500 25,450 : : WI : Sep : 24,100 24,600 24,800 24,750 26,600 : Nov : 23,600 24,000 24,900 24,800 25,850 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Corn for Grain: Number of Ears per Acre, Selected States, 1994-98 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State :Month: 1994 : 1995 : 1996 : 1997 : 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Number : : IL : Oct : 22,650 22,900 23,700 23,500 24,300 : Nov : 22,600 22,850 23,600 23,400 24,300 : : IN : Oct : 22,150 23,000 22,750 22,150 23,450 : Nov : 22,150 22,950 22,700 22,150 23,350 : : IA : Oct : 24,050 24,050 24,350 24,600 24,250 : Nov : 24,000 24,000 24,250 24,550 24,300 : : MN : Oct : 26,950 25,750 26,400 26,150 27,550 : Nov : 26,950 25,700 26,450 25,900 27,550 : : NE : Oct : 21,200 21,800 22,600 21,900 22,500 : Nov : 21,300 21,700 22,550 21,900 22,500 : : OH : Oct : 22,400 22,650 22,300 22,500 24,800 : Nov : 22,500 22,500 22,000 22,300 25,000 : : WI : Oct : 24,600 23,600 24,250 24,350 24,950 : Nov : 24,650 23,250 24,650 24,300 24,850 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Corn for Grain: Frequency of Farmer Reported Row Widths, Selected States, 1995-98 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Row Width (inches) State :Year :--------------------------------------------------------------- : : Less than : : : : More than : : 30 : 30 : 36 : 38 : 38 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Number : : IL : 1995: 1 203 39 24 : 1996: 198 29 25 1 : 1997: 1 223 36 20 1 : 1998: 3 215 35 26 : : IN : 1995: 3 148 28 8 : 1996: 119 23 4 : 1997: 149 25 5 : 1998: 2 143 19 8 : : IA : 1995: 178 30 79 2 : 1996: 2 183 24 69 : 1997: 1 200 32 59 : 1998: 2 208 24 54 : : MN : 1995: 9 114 16 22 : 1996: 3 121 22 18 1 : 1997: 10 126 21 16 : 1998: 9 127 26 13 1 : : NE : 1995: 1 98 79 16 2 : 1996: 116 91 20 1 : 1997: 135 92 18 : 1998: 1 140 84 8 : : OH : 1995: 121 7 7 : 1996: 1 84 9 5 2 : 1997: 1 99 10 7 1 : 1998: 2 104 6 8 1 : : WI : 1995: 1 59 13 44 2 : 1996: 1 45 17 19 2 : 1997: 2 50 14 36 1 : 1998: 3 58 8 26 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Corn for Grain: Percentage Distribution by Row Width and Average Row Width, Selected States, 1994-98 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Row Width (inches) : State :Year : Number :----------------------------------------------:Average : : of : 20.5 : 20.6- :30.6- :34.6- : 36.6- : 38.6 & : Row : :Samples :or less:30.5 1/: 34.5 : 36.5 : 38.5 :Greater : Width -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Number ----------------- Percent ---------------- Inches : : IL : 1994: 241 52.3 21.6 9.1 11.6 5.4 32.1 : 1995: 268 56.7 19.4 10.5 12.3 1.1 31.9 : 1996: 257 63.4 14.4 10.9 9.3 2.0 31.7 : 1997: 270 61.4 17.8 11.9 7.4 1.5 31.6 : 1998: 267 64.5 14.6 9.7 10.5 0.7 31.5 : : IN : 1994: 158 69.7 13.9 8.2 6.3 1.9 31.2 : 1995: 175 59.4 21.8 11.4 6.3 1.1 31.4 : 1996: 146 60.3 21.2 8.9 7.5 2.1 31.5 : 1997: 169 67.4 16.6 9.5 4.7 1.8 31.3 : 1998: 168 1.2 57.7 25.0 9.5 5.4 1.2 31.2 : : IA : 1994: 276 44.5 20.7 6.2 21.0 7.6 32.9 : 1995: 288 45.2 14.6 7.6 21.9 10.7 33.3 : 1996: 281 47.3 19.2 7.5 19.6 6.4 32.7 : 1997: 281 0.7 48.8 19.2 8.2 19.9 3.2 32.5 : 1998: 275 0.4 53.1 19.6 8.0 13.8 5.1 32.1 : : MN : 1994: 168 61.3 15.5 7.7 9.5 6.0 31.7 : 1995: 163 64.4 12.2 6.8 14.1 2.5 31.3 : 1996: 165 60.6 13.9 13.9 7.9 3.7 31.8 : 1997: 167 0.6 58.6 17.4 10.2 11.4 1.8 31.4 : 1998: 169 0.6 62.0 17.2 10.1 7.7 2.4 31.1 : : NE : 1994: 211 31.7 19.5 27.0 16.6 5.2 33.5 : 1995: 205 36.1 15.6 28.3 16.1 3.9 33.6 : 1996: 234 38.0 11.6 35.0 12.8 2.6 33.4 : 1997: 230 37.4 17.0 30.4 13.5 1.7 33.1 : 1998: 224 0.4 41.1 17.9 27.2 12.1 1.3 32.8 : : OH : 1994: 127 55.9 26.8 5.5 9.4 2.4 31.5 : 1995: 132 56.1 30.3 2.3 8.3 3.0 31.5 : 1996: 101 64.4 17.8 5.9 9.9 2.0 31.4 : 1997: 113 0.9 62.8 18.6 8.0 4.4 5.3 31.5 : 1998: 116 0.9 73.3 15.5 1.7 5.2 3.4 30.9 : : WI : 1994: 115 30.4 20.9 10.4 26.1 12.2 34.1 : 1995: 110 36.4 15.4 8.2 23.6 16.4 34.0 : 1996: 84 1.2 33.3 23.8 6.0 23.8 11.9 33.5 : 1997: 91 1.1 28.5 16.5 13.2 28.6 12.1 34.0 : 1998: 83 1.2 49.4 14.5 4.8 24.1 6.0 32.5 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ For 1994-95 this column of data contains information for 30.5 or less. Soybeans: Objective Yield Data The National Agricultural Statistics Service is conducting objective yield surveys in 8 soybean producing States during 1998. Randomly selected plots of soybeans fields are visited monthly from August through harvest to obtain specific counts and measurements. Data in these tables are actual field counts from this survey. Soybeans: Pods with Beans per 18 Square Feet, Selected States, 1994-98 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State : Month : 1994 : 1995 : 1996 : 1997 : 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Number : : AR : Sep 1/: : Nov : 1,782 1,755 1,521 2,098 1,640 : Final : 1,673 1,609 1,481 1,956 : : IL : Sep : 1,745 1,816 1,505 1,828 2,087 : Nov : 1,639 1,764 1,573 1,708 1,902 : Final : 1,636 1,764 1,581 1,708 : : IN : Sep : 1,850 1,755 1,416 1,622 1,883 : Nov : 1,574 1,677 1,470 1,532 1,709 : Final : 1,570 1,677 1,457 1,532 : : IA : Sep : 1,887 1,739 1,654 1,894 1,914 : Nov : 1,820 1,611 1,463 1,458 1,745 : Final : 1,820 1,616 1,463 1,461 : : MN : Sep : 1,678 1,613 1,543 1,585 1,598 : Nov : 1,496 1,501 1,487 1,506 1,450 : Final : 1,496 1,501 1,487 1,506 : : MO : Sep : 1,470 895 1,491 1,539 1,847 : Nov : 1,643 1,462 1,688 1,591 1,878 : Final : 1,659 1,469 1,655 1,650 : : NE : Sep : 1,676 1,404 1,715 1,716 1,849 : Nov : 1,826 1,420 1,514 1,345 1,810 : Final : 1,826 1,420 1,514 1,342 : : OH : Sep : 1,950 1,790 1,452 1,711 1,887 : Nov : 1,643 1,647 1,378 1,485 1,710 : Final : 1,643 1,650 1,383 1,467 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Not available due to plant immaturity. Measured Row Width of Soybeans: Percentage Distribution and Average Width, Selected States, 1994-98 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Row Width (inches) : State :Year : Number :--------------------------------------------: Average : : of : 10.0 & : 10.1- : 18.6- : 28.6- : 34.6 & : Row : :Samples :less 1/ : 18.5 : 28.5 : 34.5 :Greater : Width 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Number ---------------- Percent --------------- Inches : : AR : 1994: 127 30.7 10.8 16.7 14.7 27.1 23.9 : 1995: 119 36.2 10.5 29.0 15.5 8.8 19.7 : 1996: 124 35.4 6.5 19.0 26.2 12.9 21.6 : 1997: 126 42.9 13.5 19.4 17.5 6.7 18.0 : 1998: 124 30.8 13.9 25.8 20.5 9.0 20.1 : : IL : 1994: 185 45.6 11.4 3.0 34.6 5.4 18.4 : 1995: 208 57.1 10.1 2.9 26.0 3.9 16.0 : 1996: 202 53.2 15.2 2.2 25.5 3.9 16.0 : 1997: 211 55.2 18.5 3.1 21.1 2.1 15.1 : 1998: 205 54.5 17.8 2.0 22.0 3.7 15.5 : : IN : 1994: 149 58.0 13.1 1.7 23.8 3.4 15.5 : 1995: 148 68.0 10.2 3.4 17.0 1.4 13.3 : 1996: 147 69.4 11.2 2.1 14.6 2.7 13.0 : 1997: 148 59.3 15.6 4.8 14.9 5.4 14.4 : 1998: 160 62.1 18.8 1.9 15.3 1.9 13.4 : : IA : 1994: 207 28.3 9.9 6.0 44.2 11.6 24.2 : 1995: 206 28.2 10.5 5.6 40.4 15.3 24.6 : 1996: 216 28.3 12.3 5.1 42.2 12.1 24.4 : 1997: 211 25.1 19.2 4.0 42.0 9.7 22.3 : 1998: 217 21.7 22.1 7.1 41.0 8.1 22.1 : : MN : 1994: 101 36.2 12.4 6.9 35.6 8.9 20.0 : 1995: 98 25.0 14.3 9.7 46.4 4.6 21.6 : 1996: 101 30.8 11.9 10.5 38.8 8.0 21.0 : 1997: 97 27.8 28.9 5.1 36.1 2.1 18.8 : 1998: 105 17.6 21.0 15.7 43.8 1.9 22.0 : : M0 : 1994: 150 46.4 15.0 6.0 23.3 9.3 18.0 : 1995: 132 53.1 14.0 5.7 22.3 4.9 16.4 : 1996: 125 48.4 19.2 4.4 20.4 7.6 16.7 : 1997: 118 47.3 30.1 5.0 11.7 5.9 15.4 : 1998: 125 49.6 26.4 3.6 14.0 6.4 15.6 : : NE : 1994: 74 21.6 6.8 2.7 35.8 33.1 27.8 : 1995: 87 23.6 8.6 5.2 37.9 24.7 25.2 : 1996: 74 21.0 11.5 4.7 40.5 22.3 25.3 : 1997: 74 26.3 13.5 4.1 34.5 21.6 23.6 : 1998: 96 16.1 18.8 4.2 38.0 22.9 25.2 : : OH : 1994: 124 66.5 14.6 3.2 11.7 4.0 12.9 : 1995: 124 68.0 21.5 1.6 6.9 2.0 11.4 : 1996: 121 69.5 23.5 1.2 5.8 10.6 : 1997: 122 71.3 17.6 2.9 7.4 0.8 11.4 : 1998: 127 74.0 15.3 2.8 7.1 0.8 10.8 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Broadcast soybeans included as "10.0 inches and less" but excluded in computation of average width. Cotton: Cumulative Boll Counts The National Agricultural Statistics Service is conducting cotton objective yield surveys in 5 States which account for about 65 percent of the U.S. Upland cotton production. Plots are randomly selected from a scientific sample of cotton fields. Two sample plots per field are visited monthly from about August 1 through harvest to obtain specific counts and measurements. Data in this table are actual field counts from this survey. Cotton: Cumulative Boll Counts, September and November 1994-98, and Final, 1994-97 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State : Month : 1994 : 1995 : 1996 : 1997 : 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Number : : AR : Sep : 1,019 850 857 975 637 : Nov : 813 689 741 810 633 : Final : 812 689 741 811 : : CA : Sep : 828 751 707 701 755 : Nov : 805 682 748 697 665 : Final : 806 680 744 697 : : LA : Sep : 808 679 665 639 694 : Nov : 747 615 607 643 600 : Final : 748 615 607 643 : : MS : Sep : 864 682 816 908 835 : Nov : 761 607 731 835 823 : Final : 760 607 729 833 : : TX : Sep : 515 423 383 500 498 : Nov : 484 409 498 468 477 : Final : 486 415 498 458 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes small bolls (less than one inch in diameter), large unopened bolls (at least one inch in diameter), open bolls, partially opened bolls, and burrs, per 40 feet of row. In November, excludes small bolls. Fall Potatoes: Percent of Varieties Planted The National Agricultural Statistics Service conducts variety surveys in 8 major States, accounting for 88 percent of U. S. fall potato production. In the 7 Objective Survey States all producing areas of each State are sampled in proportion to planted acreage. Colorado data are from a special Potato Variety Survey. Variety data shown below are rounded actual percentages from these surveys. Fall Potatoes: Percent of Major Varieties Planted, Selected States and United States, 1998 Crop ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State : Pct. of :: State : Pct. of :: State : Pct. of and : Planted :: and : Planted :: and : Planted Varieties : Acres :: Varieties : Acres :: Varieties : Acres ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CO 1/ : :: MN (cont'd) : :: WI : R Norkotah : 41.6 :: Nor Valley : 1.3 :: R Burbank : 37.5 R Nugget : 35.1 :: R Norkotah : 0.9 :: Snowden : 16.9 Centennial R : 9.3 :: Ranger R : 0.9 :: R Norkotah : 13.8 Yukon Gold : 3.4 :: : :: Norland : 10.7 Sangre : 2.7 :: ND : :: Goldrush : 9.7 : :: R Burbank : 37.5 :: Superior : 3.4 ID : :: Shepody : 13.0 :: Frito-Lay : 3.2 R Burbank : 77.9 :: Frito-Lay : 12.8 :: Atlantic : 2.3 Ranger R : 6.6 :: Norland : 12.3 :: Ranger R : 1.5 Shepody : 5.6 :: Snowden : 7.9 :: : R Norkotah : 4.8 :: Goldrush : 3.9 :: US (8 States) : : :: Nor Valley : 3.2 :: R Burbank : 54.3 ME : :: R Norkotah : 2.7 :: R Norkotah : 9.9 R Burbank : 23.0 :: La Soda : 2.0 :: Shepody : 7.5 Shepody : 14.1 :: Norchip : 1.5 :: Ranger R : 5.0 Ontario : 12.8 :: Pontiac : 0.9 :: Norland : 3.7 Frito-Lay : 10.2 :: : :: Snowden : 2.8 Superior : 9.0 :: OR : :: Frito-Lay : 2.5 Atlantic : 4.6 :: R Burbank : 39.5 :: R Nugget : 2.5 Snowden : 4.0 :: R Norkotah : 24.8 :: Goldrush : 1.4 R Norkotah : 3.5 :: Shepody : 17.2 :: Superior : 0.8 Katahdin : 2.9 :: Ranger R : 10.3 :: Ontario : 0.8 Goldrush : 2.6 :: Chieftain : 1.6 :: Centennial R: 0.7 Norland : 1.9 :: Snowden : 1.1 :: Atlantic : 0.5 Norwis : 1.7 :: Atlantic : 1.0 :: Nor Valley : 0.5 Chieftain : 1.1 :: : :: Pontiac : 0.5 : :: WA : :: La Soda : 0.4 MN : :: R Burbank : 58.1 :: Chieftain : 0.3 R Burbank : 55.7 :: R Norkotah : 13.2 :: Yukon Gold : 0.2 Norland : 16.7 :: Ranger R : 11.4 :: Nooksack R : 0.2 Shepody : 8.0 :: Shepody : 8.9 :: Sangre : 0.2 Pontiac : 4.5 :: Snowden : 1.7 :: Norchip : 0.2 La Soda : 2.2 :: Nooksack R : 1.5 :: Katahdin : 0.2 Frito-Lay : 1.9 :: Chieftain : 0.8 :: Norwis : 0.1 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ CO data are from a special Potato Variety Survey. Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 1997-98 1/ (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted : Area Harvested Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres : Grains & Hay : Barley : 6,910.0 6,456.0 6,425.0 5,984.0 Corn for Grain 2/ : 80,227.0 80,798.0 73,720.0 73,789.0 Corn for Silage : 5,758.0 Hay, All : 60,815.0 59,819.0 Alfalfa : 23,673.0 23,437.0 All Other : 37,142.0 36,382.0 Oats : 5,169.0 4,932.0 2,911.0 2,807.0 Rice : 3,056.0 3,215.0 3,034.0 3,187.0 Rye : 1,433.0 1,591.0 341.0 454.0 Sorghum for Grain 2/ : 10,108.0 9,726.0 9,391.0 7,838.0 Sorghum for Silage : 310.0 Wheat, All : 70,989.0 66,185.0 63,577.0 59,112.0 Winter : 48,342.0 46,759.0 41,813.0 40,231.0 Durum : 3,250.0 3,805.0 3,107.0 3,728.0 Other Spring : 19,397.0 15,621.0 18,657.0 15,153.0 : Oilseeds : Canola : 728.0 1,133.0 698.0 1,087.0 Cottonseed : Flaxseed : 146.0 335.0 135.0 322.0 Mustard Seed : 74.4 124.0 72.8 121.0 Peanuts 3/ : 1,431.0 1,410.8 1,475.5 Rapeseed : 1.7 2.0 1.5 1.9 Safflower : 249.0 296.0 235.0 282.0 Soybeans for Beans : 70,550.0 72,690.0 69,584.0 71,570.0 Sunflower : 2,949.0 3,420.0 2,852.0 3,307.0 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All : 13,808.0 12,865.5 13,270.0 10,374.5 Upland : 13,558.0 12,552.0 13,021.0 10,128.0 Amer-Pima : 250.0 313.5 249.0 246.5 Sugarbeets : 1,459.3 1,495.2 1,428.3 1,456.2 Sugarcane : 914.0 933.5 Tobacco : 811.5 750.0 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 8.1 9.0 7.6 7.4 Dry Edible Beans : 1,851.8 2,024.0 1,720.2 1,905.9 Dry Edible Peas : 293.6 323.4 276.6 309.1 Lentils : 181.0 159.0 172.0 155.5 Wrinkled Seed Peas : : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 5.6 Ginger Root (HI) : 0.3 0.4 Hops : 43.3 36.6 Peppermint Oil : 136.3 Potatoes, All : 1,380.6 1,418.4 1,345.1 1,394.0 Winter : 15.6 15.5 15.4 15.0 Spring : 88.3 93.2 86.2 89.8 Summer : 68.6 74.4 65.9 70.8 Fall : 1,208.1 1,235.3 1,177.6 1,218.4 Spearmint Oil : 24.5 Sweet Potatoes : 86.7 86.1 83.3 83.2 Taro (HI) 4/ : 0.5 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 1998 crop year. 2/ Area planted for all purposes. 3/ 1998 area planted revised. 4/ Acreage is total acres in crop, not harvested acreage. Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 1997-98 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Yield : Production Crop :Unit :------------------------------------------- : : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : ------- 1,000 ------ : : Grains & Hay : : Barley : Bu : 58.3 59.9 374,478 358,201 Corn for Grain : " : 127.0 133.3 9,365,574 9,836,069 Corn for Silage : Ton : 16.0 91,903 Hay, All : " : 2.50 2.54 152,120 151,754 Alfalfa : " : 3.35 3.52 79,242 82,442 All Other : " : 1.96 1.91 72,878 69,312 Oats : Bu : 60.5 60.5 176,104 169,922 Rice 2/ : Cwt : 5,896 5,660 178,896 180,396 Rye : Bu : 26.1 28.2 8,912 12,815 Sorghum for Grain : " : 69.5 66.5 653,106 520,981 Sorghum for Silage : Ton : 12.5 3,885 Wheat, All : Bu : 39.7 43.3 2,526,552 2,557,497 Winter : " : 45.0 46.9 1,882,609 1,887,395 Durum : " : 27.7 37.8 86,193 141,069 Other Spring : " : 29.9 34.9 557,750 529,033 : : Oilseeds : : Canola : Lb : 1,310 914,385 Cottonseed : Ton : 6,935 4,963 Flaxseed : Bu : 16.1 2,171 Mustard Seed : Lb : 816 59,405 Peanuts : " : 2,507 2,512 3,537,050 3,706,350 Rapeseed : " : 1,300 1,950 Safflower : " : 1,830 430,050 Soybeans for Beans : Bu : 38.8 38.6 2,702,554 2,762,609 Sunflower : Lb : 1,320 1,400 3,763,428 4,628,860 : : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : : Cotton, All 2/ : Bale: 680 612 18,793.0 13,230.6 Upland 2/ : " : 673 606 18,245.0 12,784.6 Amer-Pima 2/ : " : 1,056 868 548.0 446.0 Sugarbeets : Ton : 20.9 22.3 29,886 32,438 Sugarcane : " : 34.7 33.4 31,693 31,199 Tobacco : Lb : 2,201 2,064 1,786,065 1,548,088 : : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : : Austrian Winter Peas 2/ : Cwt : 1,513 1,405 115 104 Dry Edible Beans 2/ : " : 1,695 1,630 29,156 31,070 Dry Edible Peas 2/ : " : 2,103 1,895 5,816 5,858 Lentils 2/ : " : 1,390 1,207 2,391 1,877 Wrinkled Seed Peas : " : 682 : : Potatoes & Misc. : : Coffee (HI) : Lb : 1,680 9,400 Ginger Root (HI) : " : 44,000 50,000 12,100 18,000 Hops : " : 1,729 1,799 74,872.1 65,913.0 Peppermint Oil : " : 75 10,256 Potatoes, All : Cwt : 346 338 465,537 470,965 Winter : " : 203 199 3,124 2,980 Spring : " : 252 217 21,749 19,455 Summer : " : 271 276 17,875 19,533 Fall : " : 359 352 422,789 428,997 Spearmint Oil : Lb : 98 2,403 Sweet Potatoes : Cwt : 162 13,512 Taro (HI) 3/ : Lb : 5,500 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 1998 crop year. 2/ Yield in pounds. 3/ Yield is not estimated. Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 1997-99 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Production Crop : Unit :----------------------------------------------- : : 1997 : 1998 : 1999 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 1,000 : : Citrus 2/ : : Grapefruit : Ton : 2,888 2,626 2,629 K-Early Citrus (FL) : " : 7 2 3 Lemons : " : 958 935 901 Oranges : " : 12,677 13,857 10,974 Tangelos (FL) : " : 178 128 113 Tangerines : " : 418 360 318 Temples (FL) : " : 108 101 90 : : Non-Citrus : : Apples : Lb : 10,386.1 11,153.9 Apricots : Ton : 138.0 130.2 Bananas (HI) : Lb : 13,700.0 Grapes : Ton : 7,282.4 6,001.9 Olives (CA) : " : 104.0 95.0 Papayas (HI) : Lb : 38,800.0 Peaches : " : 2,651.1 2,420.0 Pears : Ton : 1,044.1 918.3 Prunes, Dried (CA) : " : 214.0 170.0 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA): " : 29.0 28.3 : : Nuts & Misc. : : Almonds (CA) : Lb : 757,000 540,000 Hazelnuts : Ton : 47.0 16.5 Pecans : Lb : 338,100 183,200 Pistachios (CA) : " : 180,000 195,000 Walnuts (CA) : Ton : 269.0 220.0 Maple Syrup : Gal : 1,298 1,159 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. 2/ Production years are 1996-97, 1997-98, and 1998-99. Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 1997-98 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted : Area Harvested Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Hectares : Grains & Hay : Barley : 2,796,410 2,612,680 2,600,130 2,421,660 Corn for Grain 2/ :32,467,060 32,698,140 29,833,750 29,861,670 Corn for Silage : 2,330,210 Hay, All 3/ : 24,611,220 Alfalfa : 9,580,230 9,484,720 All Other : 15,031,000 14,723,430 Oats : 2,091,840 1,995,930 1,178,050 1,135,960 Rice : 1,236,730 1,301,080 1,227,830 1,289,750 Rye : 579,920 643,860 138,000 183,730 Sorghum for Grain 2/ : 4,090,610 3,936,010 3,800,440 3,171,960 Sorghum for Silage : 125,450 Wheat, All 3/ :28,728,540 26,784,410 25,728,980 23,922,040 Winter :19,563,520 18,922,900 16,921,300 16,281,080 Durum : 1,315,240 1,539,850 1,257,370 1,508,680 Other Spring : 7,849,770 6,321,660 7,550,300 6,132,270 : Oilseeds : Canola : 294,610 458,510 282,470 439,900 Cottonseed : Flaxseed : 59,080 135,570 54,630 130,310 Mustard Seed : 30,110 50,180 29,460 48,970 Peanuts : 579,110 570,940 597,120 Rapeseed : 690 810 610 770 Safflower : 100,770 119,790 95,100 114,120 Soybeans for Beans :28,550,880 29,416,920 28,159,950 28,963,660 Sunflower : 1,193,430 1,384,040 1,154,180 1,338,310 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All 3/ : 5,587,960 5,206,540 5,370,240 4,198,460 Upland : 5,486,790 5,079,670 5,269,470 4,098,700 Amer-Pima : 101,170 126,870 100,770 99,760 Sugarbeets : 590,560 605,090 578,020 589,310 Sugarcane : 369,890 377,780 Tobacco : 328,400 303,500 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 3,280 3,640 3,080 2,990 Dry Edible Beans : 749,400 819,090 696,150 771,300 Dry Edible Peas : 118,820 130,880 111,940 125,090 Lentils : 73,250 64,350 69,610 62,930 Wrinkled Seed Peas : : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 2,270 Ginger Root (HI) : 110 150 Hops : 17,520 14,830 Peppermint Oil : 55,160 Potatoes, All 3/ : 558,720 574,010 544,350 564,140 Winter : 6,310 6,270 6,230 6,070 Spring : 35,730 37,720 34,880 36,340 Summer : 27,760 30,110 26,670 28,650 Fall : 488,910 499,910 476,560 493,070 Spearmint Oil : 9,910 Sweet Potatoes : 35,090 34,840 33,710 33,670 Taro (HI) 4/ : 180 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 1998 crop year. 2/ Area planted for all purposes. 3/ Total may not add due to rounding. 4/ Area is total hectares in crop, not harvested hectares. Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 1997-98 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Yield : Production Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Metric Tons : Grains & Hay : Barley : 3.14 3.22 8,153,300 7,798,910 Corn for Grain : 7.97 8.37 237,896,540 249,847,660 Corn for Silage : 35.78 83,373,000 Hay, All 2/ : 5.61 5.69 138,000,940 137,668,910 Alfalfa : 7.50 7.89 71,887,130 74,790,120 All Other : 4.40 4.27 66,113,810 62,878,790 Oats : 2.17 2.17 2,556,140 2,466,410 Rice : 6.61 6.34 8,114,590 8,182,630 Rye : 1.64 1.77 226,380 325,520 Sorghum for Grain : 4.37 4.17 16,589,660 13,233,530 Sorghum for Silage : 28.09 3,524,410 Wheat, All 2/ : 2.67 2.91 68,761,480 69,603,660 Winter : 3.03 3.15 51,236,220 51,366,470 Durum : 1.87 2.54 2,345,790 3,839,270 Other Spring : 2.01 2.35 15,179,470 14,397,920 : Oilseeds : Canola : 1.47 414,760 Cottonseed : 6,290,960 4,502,360 Flaxseed : 1.01 55,150 Mustard Seed : 0.91 26,950 Peanuts : 2.81 2.82 1,604,380 1,681,170 Rapeseed : 1.46 880 Safflower : 2.05 195,070 Soybeans for Beans : 2.61 2.60 73,551,470 75,185,900 Sunflower : 1.48 1.57 1,707,060 2,099,620 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All 2/ : 0.76 0.69 4,091,690 2,880,620 Upland : 0.75 0.68 3,972,380 2,783,520 Amer-Pima : 1.18 0.97 119,310 97,110 Sugarbeets : 46.91 49.94 27,112,120 29,427,260 Sugarcane : 77.73 74.92 28,751,410 28,303,260 Tobacco : 2.47 2.31 810,150 702,200 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 1.70 1.58 5,220 4,720 Dry Edible Beans : 1.90 1.83 1,322,490 1,409,310 Dry Edible Peas : 2.36 2.12 263,810 265,710 Lentils : 1.56 1.35 108,450 85,140 Wrinkled Seed Peas : 30,940 : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 1.88 4,260 Ginger Root (HI) : 49.32 56.04 5,490 8,160 Hops : 1.94 2.02 33,960 29,900 Peppermint Oil : 0.08 4,650 Potatoes, All 2/ : 38.79 37.87 21,116,400 21,362,610 Winter : 22.74 22.27 141,700 135,170 Spring : 28.28 24.28 986,520 882,460 Summer : 30.40 30.92 810,800 886,000 Fall : 40.24 39.46 19,177,390 19,458,980 Spearmint Oil : 0.11 1,090 Sweet Potatoes : 18.18 612,890 Taro (HI) 3/ : 2,490 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 1998 crop year. 2/ Production may not add due to rounding. 3/ Yield is not estimated. Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 1997-99 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Production Crop :----------------------------------------------------- : 1997 : 1998 : 1999 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Metric tons : Citrus 2/ : Grapefruit : 2,619,950 2,382,270 2,384,990 K-Early Citrus (FL) : 6,350 1,810 2,720 Lemons : 869,080 848,220 817,370 Oranges : 11,500,380 12,570,860 9,955,450 Tangelos (FL) : 161,480 116,120 102,510 Tangerines : 379,200 326,590 288,480 Temples (FL) : 97,980 91,630 81,650 : Non-Citrus : Apples : 4,710 5,060 Apricots : 125,190 118,120 Bananas (HI) : 6,210 Grapes : 6,606,480 5,444,790 Olives (CA) : 94,350 86,180 Papayas (HI) : 17,600 Peaches : 1,200 1,100 Pears : 947,190 833,100 Prunes, Dried (CA) : 194,140 154,220 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA) : 26,310 25,670 : Nuts & Misc. : Almonds (CA) : 343,370 244,940 Hazelnuts : 42,640 14,970 Pecans : 153,360 83,100 Pistachios (CA) : 81,650 88,450 Walnuts (CA) : 244,030 199,580 Maple Syrup : 6,490 5,790 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. 2/ Production years are 1996-97, 1997-98, and 1998-99. October Weather Summary A very wet weather pattern unfolded across the Plains, eliminating topsoil moisture deficits but slowing cotton harvesting and causing some mid- to late-month flooding. Warm weather (up to 3 degrees F above normal) accompanied the Plains' rainfall, however, fostering winter wheat establishment. Corn Belt harvesting advanced at an ahead-of-normal pace despite above-normal rainfall, as warm weather kept soils from becoming too wet. In the Southeast, where monthly readings ranged from 2 to 5 degrees above normal, dry weather reduced topsoil moisture but promoted summer-crop harvesting and winter wheat planting. Unfavorably dry weather also developed in the Pacific Northwest. In contrast, unusually cool, occasionally showery conditions affected the remainder of the West. Monthly readings ranged from 2 to 5 degrees F below normal in California and the Great Basin. An active storm track across the Plains and the Northeast resulted in the aforementioned wet weather and contributed to widespread lowland flooding in several areas. In eastern New England, October 8-11 rainfall totaled 4 to locally more than 10 inches. A few days earlier, similar totals had produced minor flooding from northeastern Texas to the middle Mississippi and lower Missouri Valleys. Torrential rainfall (8 to 20 inches) struck southeastern Texas from October 17-19. Resultant flooding left low-lying areas submerged, stranded or washed away livestock, and damaged fences and farm buildings. At month's end, heavy rain (4 to 10 inches) erupted across the central and southern Plains. The rain further eased long-term drought on the southern Plains, but left standing water and caused some wash-outs in winter wheat fields near rivers and streams from western Oklahoma to eastern Kansas. October precipitation records were established at several sites in the Plains States, including: Location Total (Inches) Former Record/Year San Antonio, TX 18.07 9.74 in 1994 Wichita, KS 9.42 6.13 in 1959 Aberdeen, SD 7.29 5.14 in 1983 Rapid City, SD 5.60 3.82 in 1982 Glasgow, MT 3.05 1.80 in 1994 Amarillo, Texas (6.48 inches), measured its greatest October precipitation since 1941, and third-highest October total on record. Similarly, Portland, Maine (10.45 inches), experienced its third-wettest October. Meanwhile in California, monthly temperatures in Bakersfield averaged 62.7 degrees F (5.1 degrees below normal), the lowest since 1984. General Crop Comments: Crops rapidly matured, as temperatures remained seasonable or above-normal east of the Rocky Mountains throughout the month. Harvest momentum accelerated in the Corn Belt, Great Plains, and Southeast, as early-month dry weather aided progress. As the month progressed, most of the Corn Belt and Great Plains received substantial rainfall but the harvest pace remained ahead of the 5-year average. Harvest operations lagged in the Southwest, as crops matured well behind normal especially in California. Dry weather hindered fall seeding operations in the High Plains. Heavy rainfall caused local flooding in the Northeast early in the month and some parts of Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas experienced flooding and erosion late in the month. As the month began, nearly all of the Nation's corn had reached maturity and most of the soybeans were dropping leaves, more than 1 week ahead of normal for both crops. Dry weather provided excellent harvest conditions for the first week of the month. Periodic rains interfered with harvest activities during the month, first in the western Corn Belt then later in the southern, central, and eastern Corn Belt. Harvest activities were able to resume in all areas after the brief rain delays and remained well ahead of normal throughout the month. By the end of the month, the harvest season was winding down, more than 1 week early for corn and nearly 1 week early for soybeans. Cotton development began the month 1 week ahead of normal, with virtually all fields in the Mississippi Delta States in the boll opening stage, much of which was harvested. Most of the crop was mature in the southern Plains and Southeast, but continued to rapidly advance in California. Georges' heavy rains and subsequent flooding damaged cotton fields along the eastern Gulf coast and halted harvest activity. Harvest efforts were interrupted by rain in the northern and extreme southern areas of the Mississippi Delta, as well as parts of the Atlantic Coastal Plains during the first half of the month. Meanwhile, dry conditions in the central Mississippi Delta region and western Oklahoma aided progress. Harvest accelerated during the last half of the month, as rain delays were mostly limited to the southern Plains. As the month ended, two-thirds of the crop was harvested, ahead of the normal pace, but California producers lagged well behind the 5-year average. Less than half of the winter wheat was seeded when the month began and only one-fourth had emerged. Early-month rains in the southern Plains were welcomed in spite of the resulting planting delays, as the moisture was needed to germinate seeds. In the northern Rocky Mountains and Pacific Northwest, favorable weather allowed planting to move ahead of the 5-year average. Growers in the eastern Corn Belt also made rapid seeding progress, especially in Ohio, where planting progressed well ahead of normal. In the southern Corn Belt and northern Delta region, rain curtailed planting until mid-month, when progress began to gain momentum. Emergence lagged in the central and southern Plains due to the slow planting pace, but rain during the first half of the month boosted emergence in the northern Plains. The rice harvest progressed ahead of normal, except in California, where progress continued to lag behind normal throughout the month. Warm weather early in the month aided sorghum development, allowing the harvest pace to accelerate in the Great Plains and southern Corn Belt. By mid-month, harvest was virtually complete in most areas of the Mississippi Delta States and by the end of the month, growers in the southern Corn Belt and Great Plains were nearly finished also. Peanut harvesting fell behind the normal pace due to heavy rains and flooding from Hurricane Georges and continued to lag throughout the month in Georgia and Alabama. In the southern Plains and along the Atlantic Coastal Plains, harvest progressed ahead of normal. Corn for Grain: Acreage harvested and to be harvested for grain is forecast at 73.8 million acres, unchanged from last month and virtually unchanged from 1997. The November 1 corn objective yield data indicate a record level ear count for the combined seven objective yield States (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Ohio, and Wisconsin). The previous record ears per acre was set in 1996. As of November 1, 83 percent of the acreage was harvested in the 17 major States. This compares with 74 percent last year and 68 percent for the 5-year average. In Iowa, forecasted ear counts are above average but below the final counts in 1996 and 1997. Eighty-six percent of the crop was harvested, ahead of 83 percent last year and the average of 69 percent. Forecasted ear counts in Nebraska are below 1996 but above average when compared to final levels. Eighty-three percent of the crop was harvested, compared with 66 percent for both 1997 and the average. Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio ear counts from objective yield data indicate record high levels. In Illinois, 82 percent of the crop was harvested, compared with 88 percent in 1997 and the average of 79 percent. The corn crop was 82 percent harvested in Indiana, ahead of the 58 percent one year ago and the average of 61 percent. The Ohio corn harvest was 71 percent complete, compared with 39 percent last year and the average of 51 percent. In Minnesota and Wisconsin, forecasted ear counts are at a record level. Ninety percent of the Minnesota acreage was harvested, compared with 88 percent for last year and the average of 67 percent. In Wisconsin, 73 percent of the corn was harvested, compared with 39 percent in 1997 and the average of 46 percent. Sorghum for Grain: The final production forecast for the 1998 crop is 521 million bushels, down slightly from the October forecast and 20 percent below 1997. The U.S. yield is forecast at 66.5 bushels per acre, unchanged from last month but 3.0 bushels below 1997. Area harvested and to be harvested was unchanged from October, at 7.84 million acres, down 17 percent from the previous year. Arkansas and Missouri showed declines of 2 and 6 bushels per acre, respectively, in yield forecasts from October. Colorado and South Dakota increased their yield forecasts, up 9 and 5 bushels per acre, respectively. As of November 1, 83 percent of the crop in the 12 major states had been harvested, progressing nearly a week ahead of the 5-year average. Rain the last week of October slowed harvest progress in Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas. Rice: Rice production is forecast at 180 million cwt, down slightly from October 1 but up 1 percent from 1997. If realized, this would be the third highest production on record. The average yield is forecast at 5,660 pounds per acre, down 36 pounds from last month and down 236 pounds from a year ago. Area for harvest is expected to total 3.19 million acres, unchanged from October 1 but 5 percent above last year. The rice production in California declined from last month. Weather conditions have been unfavorable most of the year. Yields in Arkansas increased from last month. The harvest progressed well without any major problems. Yields in Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, and Texas remained unchanged from October. Fall Potatoes: Production of fall potatoes for 1998 is forecast at 429 million cwt, up 1 percent from last year but 5 percent below 1996. Area harvested, at 1.22 million acres, is up 3 percent from last year but 2 percent below 1996. The average yield is forecast at 352 cwt per acre, down 7 cwt from last year and 12 cwt below two years ago. Planting started on time this year and most States had good early weather. A hotter than normal summer caused rougher and smaller potatoes and lower yields in Western States. Harvest in the West was delayed as long as possible to gain more size. Central and Eastern States on the other hand had good size and yields. Total potato production from all four seasons is estimated at 471 million cwt in 1998, up 1 percent from last year but 6 percent below the record large crop of 1996. Five Eastern States produced 30.3 million cwt of fall potatoes in 1998, down 2 percent from last year and 11 percent below two years ago. Area for harvest totaled 109,100 acres, down 7 percent from last year. The average yield of 278 cwt per acre gained 13 cwt from a year ago. Planting started early this year, but heavy June rains bogged down some fields. The rest of the summer was on the dry side, resulting in yields that were variable. Production in Maine slipped 2 percent from a year ago because fewer acres were planted; however, average yields were up sharply. Better yields in Pennsylvania pushed production up 5 percent. Production in Massachusetts was down 17 percent, Rhode Island lost 7 percent, and New York dropped 4 percent from last year. Eight Central States' production is forecast at 107.0 million cwt this year, a jump of 10 percent from last year but slightly below the record crop in 1996. Harvested area totaled 365,700 acres, a gain of 7 percent from last year. The average yield of 293 cwt per acre increased 10 cwt from last year, including record high yields in North Dakota (tied with 1994), Nebraska, and Indiana. Heavy summer rains took out some fields in Minnesota and Ohio, but yields were generally high. Fewer acres for harvest placed Wisconsin's crop down 1 percent from last year. Lower yields in Michigan resulted in a 3 percent smaller potato crop there. The 6 other Central States' productions were up, ranging from about 33 percent in North Dakota and Indiana to 1 percent in South Dakota. Nebraska's potato crop was up 16 percent and Minnesota increased 9 percent from last year. Ohio's production improved 2 percent over last year. Ten Western States produced 291.7 million cwt in 1998, down 1 percent from last year and 7 percent below two years ago. Acreage harvested, at 743,600 acres, increased 4 percent, while the average yield of 392 cwt per acre was down 19 cwt from a year ago. Summer heat led to smaller sizes, lower solids, and rougher potatoes in eight of the Western States. Farmers delayed digging as late as possible to gain better size. Production is down in most of the Western States primarily because of lower yields. Production in Idaho slid 2 percent from last year, Oregon is off 4 percent, and California dropped 12 percent. New Mexico and Utah production fell 15 and 20 percent, respectively. Nevada's production dropped 6 percent and Montana edged down 1 percent from last year. Higher acreage gave Washington a 2 percent larger crop even though yields were down. Good yields in Colorado swelled their crop by 1 percent and Wyoming by more than 7 percent. Soybeans: Growers expect to harvest 71.6 million acres of soybeans, up 3 percent from 1997 and unchanged from the October 1998 forecast. As of November 1, 89 percent of the soybean crop was harvested, 1 percentage point ahead of 1997 and 4 points ahead of the average. Harvest progress during October started at a very fast pace but was interrupted by wet conditions in many areas of the Corn Belt between the second and fourth weeks of October. Soybean harvest was nearing completion across the Corn Belt States. In Iowa, Minnesota and Ohio, harvest was 97 percent complete as of November 1, 2 percentage points behind last year. Ohio was 3 points ahead of 1997. In Illinois, harvest was 92 percent complete and was lagging behind by 6 points compared to last season, while harvest in Indiana, at 94 percent complete, was 2 points behind 1997. Harvest progress in Nebraska and Missouri, at 92 and 81 percent, respectively, was at the same pace as last year. Harvest in Mid-Atlantic and Southern States was not as advanced, but was running ahead of the previous year. Harvest in Arkansas was 78 percent complete, 15 percentage points ahead of 1997. For most states, pod counts from the November objective yield survey were higher than final 1997 counts. In Illinois, Indiana, Missouri, and Ohio pod counts for the November survey period were the highest on record. Pod counts were also higher than 1997 in Iowa and Nebraska, but not at record levels. Peanut: Production is forecast at 3.71 billion pounds, up 3 percent from the October 1 forecast and up 5 percent from last year. Acreage for harvest is estimated at 1.48 millions acres, unchanged from October 1 and 5 percent above 1997. Yields are expected to average 2,512 pounds per acre, up 64 pounds from last month and 5 pounds above 1997. Production in the Southeastern States (Alabama, Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina) is expected to total 1.99 billion pounds, 3 percent above last month, and 1 percent above the 1997 crop. Harvest lagged behind the 5-year average in Alabama and Georgia while harvest in Florida and South Carolina were ahead of average. Virginia-North Carolina production is forecast at 594 million pounds, up 3 percent from last month and 15 percent more than a year ago. Yield per harvested acre in the region, at 2,969 pounds, is 100 pounds above last month. In Virginia, harvest was virtually complete as of November 1, slightly ahead of average. Harvest was 85 percent complete in North Carolina, 6 percent ahead of average. The peanut crop in the Southwest (New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas) is expected to total 1.12 billion pounds, up 1 percent from last month and 7 percent above 1997. Yields in the tri-state area are expected to average 2,471 pounds per acre, 20 pounds above last month. On November 1, harvest was 62 percent complete in Texas, 11 percent ahead of the average. Cotton: Upland cotton harvested acreage, at 10.1 million acres, is up 20,000 acres from last month, but is down 22 percent from last year. American-Pima harvested acres remain unchanged from October, at 246,500 acres and represents a 1 percent decrease from 1997. Cotton fields in the Texas Plains were being sprayed in preparation for harvest. In early October, a brief cool period slowed boll opening and later in the month rainfall in the Plains delayed harvest. On November 1, harvest was two-thirds complete which was 19 points above the 5-year average. Objective yield data indicate Texas' large boll counts are the sixth highest since 1988 and boll weights rank eighth. In Oklahoma, the crop was 74 percent harvested on November 1, one month ahead of the 5-year average. The Delta States (Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, and Tennessee) harvest was slowed in early October in some areas of this region, but in late October open weather allowed for good progress. In early November, harvest was 8 points behind the 5-year average pace in Missouri at 70 percent but the other States were ahead of the average pace. Louisiana had 97 of the crop harvested, 5 points ahead of the 5-year average. Mississippi and Arkansas producers were 14 points above average with 98 and 91 percent of the acreage harvested, respectively. Tennessee's progress was 17 points ahead of the 5-year average at 92 percent and excellent harvest conditions allowed growers to proceed with second pickings. Compared to the previous 10 years, large boll counts ranked ninth in Arkansas and boll weights were the lowest. In Mississippi, boll counts were the second highest but boll weights were the lowest. These data also showed Louisiana boll counts and boll weights were the lowest during this same time period. In early November, Arizona's harvest progress was about one week behind normal at 53 percent. In California, defoliation neared completion in both the San Joaquin and Sacramento valleys during October. The crop remained behind the normal development pace due to the unusual weather early in the season. Harvest was three-fourths complete on the Desert crop. On November 1 California producers had harvested 15 percent of the acreage, well below the 5-year average of 62 percent. Data from the objective yield survey show California's large boll counts as the lowest and boll weights were the third lowest since 1988. In the Southeastern States (Alabama, Georgia, North Carolina, and South Carolina) rains during early October slowed harvest and defoliation activities, but later in the month, harvest progress increased and Georgia harvested about 40 percent of the acreage during the month. On November 1, Alabama was 14 points ahead of the average harvest pace, at 79 percent, while Georgia equaled their 5-year average, at 58 percent. North Carolina was 21 points ahead of the normal harvest progress with three-fourths of the acreage harvested and South Carolina was 23 points ahead at 77 percent. American-Pima production is forecast at 446,000 bales, down 15,500 bales from October and down 19 percent from last year's output. Yield is indicated at 868 pounds per harvested acre, down 188 pounds from last year's record high yield. In California, harvest began in late October in the earliest planted fields. Light rains halted harvest briefly, but lint quality suffered no significant damage. Heavy rains in south central New Mexico caused a reduction in yields. The Texas harvest progressed well. All cotton ginnings totaled 7,361,750 running bales prior to November 1 compared with 7,930,100 running bales ginned to the same date last year and 8,868,700 running bales in 1996. Tobacco: U.S. all tobacco production for 1998 is forecast at 1.55 billion pounds, down 13 percent from 1997. Harvested acres are estimated at 749,950 acres, 8 percent below last year. Yields for 1998 are expected to average 2,064 pounds per acre, 2 pounds above last month's forecast but 137 pounds below the average for 1997. Flue-cured production is expected to total 825 million pounds, up slightly from last month's forecast but 21 percent below a year ago. The projected average yield, at 2,144 pounds per acre, increased 4 pounds from October 1 but is 162 pounds below last year's average. Burley production is forecast at 633 million pounds, unchanged from the October 1 projections but 3 percent below 1997. Average yield, reported at 1,962 pounds per acre, is 97 pounds below the 1997 average. Kentucky burley stripping is advancing ahead of schedule, with 26 percent stripped as of November 1. The crop in Kentucky is rated in mostly good condition. Sugarbeets: Production is forecast at 32.4 million tons, 9 percent above the 1997 final production estimate, and 3 percent above the October 1 estimate. If realized, production would be the largest on record, exceeding the previous record of 31.9 million tons set in 1994. Acres to be harvested in the 12 sugarbeet-producing states was estimated at slightly less than 1.46 million acres, 2 percent above 1997 but 1,000 acres below the October estimate. Yield is estimated at 22.3 tons per acre, nearly 1.0 ton above October 1 and just 0.1 ton below the record set in 1981 and tied in 1987. Warm late-season weather extended the growing season in most of the Great Plains States and accounted for the extra tonnage. Higher yields in most of the sugarbeet-producing states pushed U.S. production into record territory. The largest increases were in the Red River Valley of the northern Plains. North Dakota and Minnesota yields and production would be new record highs, if realized. In Minnesota, the production estimate rose despite an increase in abandonment. Idaho production also took a sizable jump due to higher yield expectations. Other states raising yield and production estimates were Colorado, Montana, Nebraska, Ohio, Oregon, and Wyoming. In California, where cold, wet weather delayed planting and a hot, dry summer hindered development, yields were lower than earlier estimates. Hot, dry weather reduced yields in Michigan compared to a year ago, but accelerated the harvest, which was completed in less than 2 weeks. Sugarcane: U.S. sugarcane production for sugar and seed in 1998 is expected to total 31.2 million tons, down nearly 2 percent from 1997 and slightly below the October 1 estimate. The area for harvest dropped to 933,500 acres, 500 acres below the previous estimate, but more than 2 percent above last year. The forecasted yield was virtually unchanged from the October 1 estimate, at 33.4 tons per acre, but 1.3 tons below 1997. Increased abandonment in Texas due to the summer drought accounted for the decrease in harvested acres. As a result of the reduction in harvested acres, the production estimate fell by more than 1 percent. However, the impact on production was partially offset by slightly higher yields on the remaining acres. In Louisiana, insect damage was minimal, but yields were expected to be below 1997, as the summer drought shortened the crop. Hawaii growers expected yields to equal last year's. In Florida, mills opened in mid-October and the milling season was expected to run through mid-March. Hazelnuts: The U.S. hazelnut production forecast for 1998 is 16,500 tons (in-shell basis), unchanged from October's forecast but down 65 percent from last year's record production. Virtually all the expected production will originate in Oregon, except for 50 tons from Washington. Harvest is nearly complete, despite a very late nut drop. Harvest conditions were generally good. Some orchards had more blanks than normal; otherwise, nut quality is good. Papayas: Hawaii fresh papaya production is estimated at 2.85 million pounds for October, 10 percent more than a month ago but 17 percent lower than October 1997. Area devoted to papaya production totaled 3,785 acres, 1 percent higher than September and 21 percent higher than a year ago. Harvested area, totaling 2,305 acres, was 1 percent lower than last month but 18 percent higher than last October. Weather conditions during October were variable with a mix of sunshine and occasional heavy showers over the major papaya producing orchards. Florida citrus: October was drier than normal. The east and west coasts had a few days of rainfall at the beginning of the month associated with Hurricane Georges. Then, the weather turned seasonal with cooler nights, mild days, and moderate temperatures. Several growers and caretakers have been running low volume irrigation to maintain good tree and fruit condition. New growth has slowed with the reduced moisture conditions and fewer hours of daylight. New crop fruit is progressing well in groves receiving good care. Packing houses are moving Ambersweet, Navel, and Hamlin oranges; white and colored grapefruit; K-Early Citrus Fruit; and early tangerines. There are several processors receiving packing house eliminations and grove run fruit. Caretakers have been very active cutting cover crops, spraying, and applying the last fertilization of the year. Texas Citrus: Harvest progressed slowly in the Rio Grande Valley during October. Most of the Valley received showers or thundershowers which were beneficial to the trees, but slowed picking activity. Early quality has been good on both oranges and grapefruit. California Citrus: Growers were busy picking lemons, grapefruit, and Satsumas. Maturity of the fruit was behind normal in many citrus groves. Picking of the 1997-98 Valencia orange crop was nearing completion by November 1. The harvest of new crop navel oranges will not begin until early November due to delayed maturity. California Fruits and Nuts: Maturity of fruit and nut crops was delayed this season due to the cool, wet spring. Consequently, beginning harvest dates were delayed. Harvest of fruit and nut crops was extended into autumn but was winding down by late October. Picking grapes for fresh use was ongoing in the San Joaquin Valley with Emperor, Red Globe, and Ruby Seedless the primary varieties. Thompson Seedless grapes were picked for fresh, raisin, and wine uses. Nearly the entire raisin crop was picked up by November 1. Cool weather has slowed drying. Harvest of wine type grapes was active and growers were plagued with bunch rot. Fuji and Granny Smith apple picking was active, along with figs, persimmons, olives, and pomegranates. Growers were busy picking kiwifruit during October. Small sized fruit was reported. Almond, pistachio, and walnut harvests were completed by month's end. The fall season strawberry harvest was also active. Reliability of November 1 Crop Production Forecasts Survey Procedures: Objective yield and farm operator surveys were conducted between October 25 and November 4 to gather information on expected yield as of November 1. The objective yield surveys for corn, soybeans, and cotton were conducted in the major producing States that usually account for about 75 percent of the U.S. production. Randomly selected plots were revisited to make current counts. The items counted within the selected plots depend on the crop and the maturity of that crop. In all cases, number of plants are recorded along with other measurements that provide information to forecast the number of ears, pods, or bolls and their weight. The counts are used with similar data from previous years to develop a projected biological yield. The five-year average harvesting loss is subtracted to obtain a net yield. The plots are revisited each month until crop maturity when the fruit is harvested and weighed. After the farm operator has harvested the sample field, another plot is sampled to obtain current year harvesting loss. The farm operator survey was conducted primarily by telephone with some use of mail and personal interviewers. Approximately 12,000 producers were interviewed during the survey period and asked questions about probable yield. Estimating Procedures: National and State level objective yield and grower reported survey estimates were reviewed for errors, reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. The survey data were also reviewed considering weather patterns and crop progress compared to previous month and previous years. Each State Statistical Office submits their analysis of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State analysis to prepare the published November 1 forecast. Revision Policy: The November 1 production forecast will not be revised; instead, a new forecast will be made each month throughout the growing season. At the end of the marketing year, administrative records and a balance sheet are utilized using carryover stocks, production, exports, processing, feeding, and ending stocks. Revisions are then made if data relationships warrant changes. Harvested acres may be revised any time a production forecast is made if there is strong evidence that the intended harvested area has changed since the last estimate. Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the November 1 production forecasts, the "Root Mean Square Error", a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the November 1 production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of squared percentage deviations for the 1978-1997 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error". Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent years. For example, the "Root Mean Square Error" for the November 1 corn for grain production forecast is 2.3 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current production forecast will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 2.3 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 3.9 percent. Also, shown in the following table is a 10-year record for selected crops of the differences between the November 1 forecast and the final estimates. Using corn again as an example, changes between the November 1 forecast and the final estimate during the past 10 years have averaged 77 million bushels, ranging from 0 million to 258 million bushels. The November 1 forecast has been below the final estimate 5 times, above 4 times and unchanged for 1 time. This does not imply that the November 1 corn forecast this year is likely to understate or overstate final production. For most crops, the number of years the forecasts have been below or above the final estimate is about equally distributed. Reliability of November 1 Crop Production Forecasts -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Root Mean : 10-Year Record of : : Square Error : Differences Between Forecast : :------------------: and Final Estimate : : : :------------------------------------ Crop :Unit : : 90 : Quantity : Years : :Percent: Percent :------------------------------------ : : :Confidence: : : :Below:Above : : : Interval :Average:Smallest:Largest:Final:Final -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : ------ Million ----- Number : : Corn For Grain :Bu : 2.3 3.9 77 0 258 5 4 Sorghum for Grain :Bu : 4.6 8.0 20 3 86 4 6 Rice :Cwt : 2.7 4.6 3 0 12 5 5 Soybeans for Beans:Bu : 2.8 4.8 20 6 37 5 5 Cotton :Bales: 2.6 4.6 360 14 937 6 4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. C. Ray Halley, Chief (202) 720-2127 Field Crops Section Bill Dowdy, Head (202) 720-3843 Jerry Ramirez - Soybeans, Minor Oilseeds (202) 720-7369 Rhonda Brandt - Corn (202) 720-9526 Herman Ellison - Peanuts, Rice, Barley (202) 720-7688 Doug Hartwig - Hay, Sorghum (202) 690-3234 Roger Latham - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings (202) 720-5944 Mark E. Miller - Oats, Sugar Crops, Weekly Crop Weather (202) 720-7621 Vaughn Siegenthaler - Wheat, Rye (202) 720-8068 Fruit, Vegetable & Special Crops Section Dean Groskurth, Head (202) 720-3843 Arvin Budge - Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes (202) 720-4285 Dave DeWalt - Citrus, Tropical Fruits (202) 720-5412 Howard Hill - Cherries, Berries, Prunes, Plums, Cranberries, Grapes, Maple Syrup (202) 720-7235 Dave Ranek - Nuts, Floriculture (202) 720-4215 Linda Simpson - Noncitrus Fruits, Mint, Dry Beans & Peas, Mushrooms (202) 690-0270 Biz Wallingsford - Fresh and Processing Vegetables, Onions (202) 720-2157 Debbie Williams - Apples, Strawberries, Tobacco (202) 720-4288 Harry Nishimoto - Hops (360) 902-1940 The next "Crop Production" report will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET on December 11, 1998. 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